Search results for: Growth curve analysis
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9964

Search results for: Growth curve analysis

9934 Position Vector of a Partially Null Curve Derived from a Vector Differential Equation

Authors: Süha Yılmaz, Emin Özyılmaz, Melih Turgut, Şuur Nizamoğlu

Abstract:

In this paper, position vector of a partially null unit speed curve with respect to standard frame of Minkowski space-time is studied. First, it is proven that position vector of every partially null unit speed curve satisfies a vector differential equation of fourth order. In terms of solution of the differential equation, position vector of a partially null unit speed curve is expressed.

Keywords: Frenet Equations, Partially Null Curves, Minkowski Space-time, Vector Differential Equation.

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9933 Comparative Analysis of the Stochastic and Parsimonious Interest Rates Models on Croatian Government Market

Authors: Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović, Blanka Škrabić

Abstract:

The paper provides a discussion of the most relevant aspects of yield curve modeling. Two classes of models are considered: stochastic and parsimonious function based, through the approaches developed by Vasicek (1977) and Nelson and Siegel (1987). Yield curve estimates for Croatia are presented and their dynamics analyzed and finally, a comparative analysis of models is conducted.

Keywords: the term structure of interest rates, Vasicek model, Nelson-Siegel model, Croatian Government market.

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9932 An Approach to Polynomial Curve Comparison in Geometric Object Database

Authors: Chanon Aphirukmatakun, Natasha Dejdumrong

Abstract:

In image processing and visualization, comparing two bitmapped images needs to be compared from their pixels by matching pixel-by-pixel. Consequently, it takes a lot of computational time while the comparison of two vector-based images is significantly faster. Sometimes these raster graphics images can be approximately converted into the vector-based images by various techniques. After conversion, the problem of comparing two raster graphics images can be reduced to the problem of comparing vector graphics images. Hence, the problem of comparing pixel-by-pixel can be reduced to the problem of polynomial comparisons. In computer aided geometric design (CAGD), the vector graphics images are the composition of curves and surfaces. Curves are defined by a sequence of control points and their polynomials. In this paper, the control points will be considerably used to compare curves. The same curves after relocated or rotated are treated to be equivalent while two curves after different scaled are considered to be similar curves. This paper proposed an algorithm for comparing the polynomial curves by using the control points for equivalence and similarity. In addition, the geometric object-oriented database used to keep the curve information has also been defined in XML format for further used in curve comparisons.

Keywords: Bezier curve, Said-Ball curve, Wang-Ball curve, DP curve, CAGD, comparison, geometric object database.

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9931 An Attack on the Lucas Based El-Gamal Cryptosystem in the Elliptic Curve Group Over Finite Field Using Greater Common Divisor

Authors: Lee Feng Koo, Tze Jin Wong, Pang Hung Yiu, Nik Mohd Asri Nik Long

Abstract:

Greater common divisor (GCD) attack is an attack that relies on the polynomial structure of the cryptosystem. This attack required two plaintexts differ from a fixed number and encrypted under same modulus. This paper reports a security reaction of Lucas Based El-Gamal Cryptosystem in the Elliptic Curve group over finite field under GCD attack. Lucas Based El-Gamal Cryptosystem in the Elliptic Curve group over finite field was exposed mathematically to the GCD attack using GCD and Dickson polynomial. The result shows that the cryptanalyst is able to get the plaintext without decryption by using GCD attack. Thus, the study concluded that it is highly perilous when two plaintexts have a slight difference from a fixed number in the same Elliptic curve group over finite field.

Keywords: Decryption, encryption, elliptic curve, greater common divisor.

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9930 Flexural Strength Design of RC Beams with Consideration of Strain Gradient Effect

Authors: Mantai Chen, Johnny Ching Ming Ho

Abstract:

The stress-strain relationship of concrete under flexure is one of the essential parameters in assessing ultimate flexural strength capacity of RC beams. Currently, the concrete stress-strain curve in flexure is obtained by incorporating a constant scale-down factor of 0.85 in the uniaxial stress-strain curve. However, it was revealed that strain gradient would improve the maximum concrete stress under flexure and concrete stress-strain curve is strain gradient dependent. Based on the strain-gradient-dependent concrete stress-strain curve, the investigation of the combined effects of strain gradient and concrete strength on flexural strength of RC beams was extended to high strength concrete up to 100 MPa by theoretical analysis. As an extension and application of the authors’ previous study, a new flexural strength design method incorporating the combined effects of strain gradient and concrete strength is developed. A set of equivalent rectangular concrete stress block parameters is proposed and applied to produce a series of design charts showing that the flexural strength of RC beams are improved with strain gradient effect considered.

Keywords: Beams, Equivalent concrete stress block, Flexural strength, Strain gradient.

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9929 A Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization-Nelder- Mead Algorithm (PSO-NM) for Nelson-Siegel- Svensson Calibration

Authors: Sofia Ayouche, Rachid Ellaia, Rajae Aboulaich

Abstract:

Today, insurers may use the yield curve as an indicator evaluation of the profit or the performance of their portfolios; therefore, they modeled it by one class of model that has the ability to fit and forecast the future term structure of interest rates. This class of model is the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model. Unfortunately, many authors have reported a lot of difficulties when they want to calibrate the model because the optimization problem is not convex and has multiple local optima. In this context, we implement a hybrid Particle Swarm optimization and Nelder Mead algorithm in order to minimize by least squares method, the difference between the zero-coupon curve and the NSS curve.

Keywords: Optimization, zero-coupon curve, Nelson-Siegel- Svensson, Particle Swarm Optimization, Nelder-Mead Algorithm.

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9928 Fatigue Failure of Structural Steel – Analysis Using Fracture Mechanics

Authors: Shine U P, EMS Nair

Abstract:

Fatigue is the major threat in service of steel structure subjected to fluctuating loads. With the additional effect of corrosion and presence of weld joints the fatigue failure may become more critical in structural steel. One of the apt examples of such structural is the sailing ship. This is experiencing a constant stress due to floating and a pulsating bending load due to the waves. This paper describes an attempt to verify theory of fatigue in fracture mechanics approach with experimentation to determine the constants of crack growth curve. For this, specimen is prepared from the ship building steel and it is subjected to a pulsating bending load with a known defect. Fatigue crack and its nature is observed in this experiment. Application of fracture mechanics approach in fatigue with a simple practical experiment is conducted and constants of crack growth equation are investigated.

Keywords: fatigue, fracture mechanics, fatigue testing machine

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9927 Efficient Hardware Implementation of an Elliptic Curve Cryptographic Processor Over GF (2 163)

Authors: Massoud Masoumi, Hosseyn Mahdizadeh

Abstract:

A new and highly efficient architecture for elliptic curve scalar point multiplication which is optimized for a binary field recommended by NIST and is well-suited for elliptic curve cryptographic (ECC) applications is presented. To achieve the maximum architectural and timing improvements we have reorganized and reordered the critical path of the Lopez-Dahab scalar point multiplication architecture such that logic structures are implemented in parallel and operations in the critical path are diverted to noncritical paths. With G=41, the proposed design is capable of performing a field multiplication over the extension field with degree 163 in 11.92 s with the maximum achievable frequency of 251 MHz on Xilinx Virtex-4 (XC4VLX200) while 22% of the chip area is occupied, where G is the digit size of the underlying digit-serial finite field multiplier.

Keywords: Elliptic curve cryptography, FPGA implementation, scalar point multiplication.

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9926 Novel Method for Elliptic Curve Multi-Scalar Multiplication

Authors: Raveen R. Goundar, Ken-ichi Shiota, Masahiko Toyonaga

Abstract:

The major building block of most elliptic curve cryptosystems are computation of multi-scalar multiplication. This paper proposes a novel algorithm for simultaneous multi-scalar multiplication, that is by employing addition chains. The previously known methods utilizes double-and-add algorithm with binary representations. In order to accomplish our purpose, an efficient empirical method for finding addition chains for multi-exponents has been proposed.

Keywords: elliptic curve cryptosystems, multi-scalar multiplication, addition chains, Fibonacci sequence.

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9925 On-line Lao Handwritten Recognition with Proportional Invariant Feature

Authors: Khampheth Bounnady, Boontee Kruatrachue, Somkiat Wangsiripitak

Abstract:

This paper proposed high level feature for online Lao handwritten recognition. This feature must be high level enough so that the feature is not change when characters are written by different persons at different speed and different proportion (shorter or longer stroke, head, tail, loop, curve). In this high level feature, a character is divided in to sequence of curve segments where a segment start where curve reverse rotation (counter clockwise and clockwise). In each segment, following features are gathered cumulative change in direction of curve (- for clockwise), cumulative curve length, cumulative length of left to right, right to left, top to bottom and bottom to top ( cumulative change in X and Y axis of segment). This feature is simple yet robust for high accuracy recognition. The feature can be gather from parsing the original time sampling sequence X, Y point of the pen location without re-sampling. We also experiment on other segmentation point such as the maximum curvature point which was widely used by other researcher. Experiments results show that the recognition rates are at 94.62% in comparing to using maximum curvature point 75.07%. This is due to a lot of variations of turning points in handwritten.

Keywords: Handwritten feature, chain code, Lao handwritten recognition.

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9924 Economic Analysis of Endogenous Growth Model with ICT Capital

Authors: Shoji Katagiri, Hugang Han

Abstract:

This paper clarifies the role of ICT capital in economic growth. Albeit ICT remarkably contributes to economic growth, there are few studies on ICT capital in ICT sector from theoretical point of view. In this paper, production function of ICT which is used as input of intermediate good in final good and ICT sectors is incorporated into our model. In this setting, we analyze the role of ICT on balance growth path and show the possibility of general equilibrium solutions for this model. Through the simulation of the equilibrium solutions, we find that when ICT impacts on economy and economic growth increases, it is necessary that increases of efficiency at ICT sector and of accumulation of non-ICT and ICT capitals occur simultaneously.

Keywords: Endogenous economic growth, ICT, intensity, capital accumulation.

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9923 Forest Growth Simulation: Tropical Rain Forest Stand Table Projection

Authors: Yasmin Yahya, Roslan Ismail, Samreth Vanna, Khorn Saret

Abstract:

The study on the tree growth for four species groups of commercial timber in Koh Kong province, Cambodia-s tropical rainforest is described. The simulation for these four groups had been successfully developed in the 5-year interval through year-60. Data were obtained from twenty permanent sample plots in the duration of thirteen years. The aim for this study was to develop stand table simulation system of tree growth by the species group. There were five steps involved in the development of the tree growth simulation: aggregate the tree species into meaningful groups by using cluster analysis; allocate the trees in the diameter classes by the species group; observe the diameter movement of the species group. The diameter growth rate, mortality rate and recruitment rate were calculated by using some mathematical formula. Simulation equation had been created by combining those parameters. Result showed the dissimilarity of the diameter growth among species groups.

Keywords: cluster analysis, diameter growth, simulation

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9922 Determining G-γ Degradation Curve in Cohesive Soils by Dilatometer and in situ Seismic Tests

Authors: Ivandic Kreso, Spiranec Miljenko, Kavur Boris, Strelec Stjepan

Abstract:

This article discusses the possibility of using dilatometer tests (DMT) together with in situ seismic tests (MASW) in order to get the shape of G-g degradation curve in cohesive soils (clay, silty clay, silt, clayey silt and sandy silt). MASW test provides the small soil stiffness (Go from vs) at very small strains and DMT provides the stiffness of the soil at ‘work strains’ (MDMT). At different test locations, dilatometer shear stiffness of the soil has been determined by the theory of elasticity. Dilatometer shear stiffness has been compared with the theoretical G-g degradation curve in order to determine the typical range of shear deformation for different types of cohesive soil. The analysis also includes factors that influence the shape of the degradation curve (G-g) and dilatometer modulus (MDMT), such as the overconsolidation ratio (OCR), plasticity index (IP) and the vertical effective stress in the soil (svo'). Parametric study in this article defines the range of shear strain gDMT and GDMT/Go relation depending on the classification of a cohesive soil (clay, silty clay, clayey silt, silt and sandy silt), function of density (loose, medium dense and dense) and the stiffness of the soil (soft, medium hard and hard). The article illustrates the potential of using MASW and DMT to obtain G-g degradation curve in cohesive soils.

Keywords: Dilatometer testing, MASW testing, shear wave, soil stiffness, stiffness reduction, shear strain.

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9921 Numerical Buckling of Composite Cylindrical Shells under Axial Compression Using Asymmetric Meshing Technique (AMT)

Authors: Zia R. Tahir, P. Mandal

Abstract:

This paper presents the details of a numerical study of buckling and post buckling behaviour of laminated carbon fiber reinforced plastic (CFRP) thin-walled cylindrical shell under axial compression using asymmetric meshing technique (AMT) by ABAQUS. AMT is considered to be a new perturbation method to introduce disturbance without changing geometry, boundary conditions or loading conditions. Asymmetric meshing affects both predicted buckling load and buckling mode shapes. Cylindrical shell having lay-up orientation [0^o/+45^o/-45^o/0^o] with radius to thickness ratio (R/t) equal to 265 and length to radius ratio (L/R) equal to 1.5 is analysed numerically. A series of numerical simulations (experiments) are carried out with symmetric and asymmetric meshing to study the effect of asymmetric meshing on predicted buckling behaviour. Asymmetric meshing technique is employed in both axial direction and circumferential direction separately using two different methods, first by changing the shell element size and varying the total number elements, and second by varying the shell element size and keeping total number of elements constant. The results of linear analysis (Eigenvalue analysis) and non-linear analysis (Riks analysis) using symmetric meshing agree well with analytical results. The results of numerical analysis are presented in form of non-dimensional load factor, which is the ratio of buckling load using asymmetric meshing technique to buckling load using symmetric meshing technique. Using AMT, load factor has about 2% variation for linear eigenvalue analysis and about 2% variation for non-linear Riks analysis. The behaviour of load end-shortening curve for pre-buckling is same for both symmetric and asymmetric meshing but for asymmetric meshing curve behaviour in post-buckling becomes extraordinarily complex. The major conclusions are: different methods of AMT have small influence on predicted buckling load and significant influence on load displacement curve behaviour in post buckling; AMT in axial direction and AMT in circumferential direction have different influence on buckling load and load displacement curve in post-buckling.

Keywords: CFRP Composite Cylindrical Shell, Asymmetric Meshing Technique, Primary Buckling, Secondary Buckling, Linear Eigenvalue Analysis, Non-linear Riks Analysis.

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9920 The Number of Rational Points on Elliptic Curves and Circles over Finite Fields

Authors: Betül Gezer, Ahmet Tekcan, Osman Bizim

Abstract:

In elliptic curve theory, number of rational points on elliptic curves and determination of these points is a fairly important problem. Let p be a prime and Fp be a finite field and k ∈ Fp. It is well known that which points the curve y2 = x3 + kx has and the number of rational points of on Fp. Consider the circle family x2 + y2 = r2. It can be interesting to determine common points of these two curve families and to find the number of these common points. In this work we study this problem.

Keywords: Elliptic curves over finite fields, rational points on elliptic curves and circles.

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9919 Effect of Sintering Temperature Curve in Wick Manufactured for Loop Heat Pipe

Authors: Shen-Chun Wu, Chuo-Jeng Huang, Wun-Hong Yang, Jy-Cheng Chang, Chien-Chun Kung

Abstract:

This investigation examines the effect of the sintering temperature curve in manufactured nickel powder capillary structure (wick) for a loop heat pipe (LHP). The sintering temperature curve is composed of a region of increasing temperature; a region of constant temperature and a region of declining temperature. The most important region is that in which the temperature increases, as an index in the stage in which the temperature increases. The wick of nickel powder is manufactured in the stage of fixed sintering temperature and the time between the stage of constant temperature and the stage of falling temperature. When the slope of the curve in the region of increasing temperature is unity (equivalent to 10 °C/min), the structure of the wick is complete and the heat transfer performance is optimal. The result of experiment test demonstrates that the heat transfer performance is optimal at 320W; the minimal total thermal resistance is approximately 0.18°C/W, and the heat flux is 17W/cm2; the internal parameters of the wick are an effective pore radius of 3.1 μm, a permeability of 3.25×10-13m2 and a porosity of 71%.

Keywords: Loop heat pipe (LHP), capillary structure (wick), sintered temperature curve.

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9918 Alternative Key Exchange Algorithm Based on Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm Certificate and Usage in Applications

Authors: A. Andreasyan, C. Connors

Abstract:

The Elliptic Curve Digital Signature algorithm-based X509v3 certificates are becoming more popular due to their short public and private key sizes. Moreover, these certificates can be stored in Internet of Things (IoT) devices, with limited resources, using less memory and transmitted in network security protocols, such as Internet Key Exchange (IKE), Transport Layer Security (TLS) and Secure Shell (SSH) with less bandwidth. The proposed method gives another advantage, in that it increases the performance of the above-mentioned protocols in terms of key exchange by saving one scalar multiplication operation.

Keywords: Cryptography, elliptic curve digital signature algorithm, key exchange, network security protocols.

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9917 Incorporation of Long-Term Redundancy in ECG Time Domain Compression Methods through Curve Simplification and Block-Sorting

Authors: Bachir Boucheham, Youcef Ferdi, Mohamed Chaouki Batouche

Abstract:

We suggest a novel method to incorporate longterm redundancy (LTR) in signal time domain compression methods. The proposition is based on block-sorting and curve simplification. The proposition is illustrated on the ECG signal as a post-processor for the FAN method. Test applications on the new so-obtained FAN+ method using the MIT-BIH database show substantial improvement of the compression ratio-distortion behavior for a higher quality reconstructed signal.

Keywords: ECG compression, Long-term redundancy, Block-sorting, Curve Simplification.

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9916 The Distance between a Point and a Bezier Curveon a Bezier Surface

Authors: Wen-Haw Chen, Sheng-Gwo Chen

Abstract:

The distance between two objects is an important problem in CAGD, CAD and CG etc. It will be presented in this paper that a simple and quick method to estimate the distance between a point and a Bezier curve on a Bezier surface.

Keywords: Geodesic-like curve, distance, projection, Bezier.

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9915 The Use of S Curves in Technology Forecasting and its Application On 3D TV Technology

Authors: Gizem Intepe, Tufan Koc

Abstract:

S-Curves are commonly used in technology forecasting. They show the paths of product performance in relation to time or investment in R&D. It is a useful tool to describe the inflection points and the limit of improvement of a technology. Companies use this information to base their innovation strategies. However inadequate use and some limitations of this technique lead to problems in decision making. In this paper first technology forecasting and its importance for company level strategies will be discussed. Secondly the S-Curve and its place among other forecasting techniques will be introduced. Thirdly its use in technology forecasting will be discussed based on its advantages, disadvantages and limitations. Finally an application of S-curve on 3D TV technology using patent data will also be presented and the results will be discussed.

Keywords: Patent analysis, Technological forecasting. S curves, 3D TV

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9914 The Number of Rational Points on Singular Curvesy 2 = x(x - a)2 over Finite Fields Fp

Authors: Ahmet Tekcan

Abstract:

Let p ≥ 5 be a prime number and let Fp be a finite field. In this work, we determine the number of rational points on singular curves Ea : y2 = x(x - a)2 over Fp for some specific values of a.

Keywords: Singular curve, elliptic curve, rational points.

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9913 Effects of Human Capital and Openness on Economic Growth of Developed and Developing Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

Authors: Fatma Didin Sonmez, Pinar Sener

Abstract:

Technology transfer by international trade and foreign direct investment is the most important positive outcome of open economy. It is widely accepted that new technology and knowledge have an important role in enhancing economic growth. Human capital is the other important factor assisting economic growth. In this study, the role of human capital in the growth process is examined in a view of new endogenous growth theory emphasizing on the technology transfer resulting from international trade. Using the panel data of 10 developed and 10 developing countries, impact of human capital and openness on the rate of economic growth of different countries is analysed. Evidence suggests the view that human capital and openness contribute to the economic growth in both developing and developed countries, but with different rates.

Keywords: economic growth, human capital, openness, technology

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9912 A New Implementation of Miura-Arita Algorithm for Miura Curves

Authors: A. Basiri, S. Rahmany, D. Khatibi

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to review some of standard fact on Miura curves. We give some easy theorem in number theory to define Miura curves, then we present a new implementation of Arita algorithm for Miura curves.

Keywords: Miura curve, discrete logarithm problem, algebraic curve cryptography, Jacobian group.

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9911 Mobile Robot Path Planning Utilizing Probability Recursive Function

Authors: Ethar H. Khalil, Bahaa I. Kazem

Abstract:

In this work a software simulation model has been proposed for two driven wheels mobile robot path planning; that can navigate in dynamic environment with static distributed obstacles. The work involves utilizing Bezier curve method in a proposed N order matrix form; for engineering the mobile robot path. The Bezier curve drawbacks in this field have been diagnosed. Two directions: Up and Right function has been proposed; Probability Recursive Function (PRF) to overcome those drawbacks. PRF functionality has been developed through a proposed; obstacle detection function, optimization function which has the capability of prediction the optimum path without comparison between all feasible paths, and N order Bezier curve function that ensures the drawing of the obtained path. The simulation results that have been taken showed; the mobile robot travels successfully from starting point and reaching its goal point. All obstacles that are located in its way have been avoided. This navigation is being done successfully using the proposed PRF techniques.

Keywords: Mobile robot, path planning, Bezier curve.

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9910 Performance Analysis of Certificateless Signature for IKE Authentication

Authors: Nazrul M. Ahmad, Asrul H. Yaacob, Ridza Fauzi, Alireza Khorram

Abstract:

Elliptic curve-based certificateless signature is slowly gaining attention due to its ability to retain the efficiency of identity-based signature to eliminate the need of certificate management while it does not suffer from inherent private key escrow problem. Generally, cryptosystem based on elliptic curve offers equivalent security strength at smaller key sizes compared to conventional cryptosystem such as RSA which results in faster computations and efficient use of computing power, bandwidth, and storage. This paper proposes to implement certificateless signature based on bilinear pairing to structure the framework of IKE authentication. In this paper, we perform a comparative analysis of certificateless signature scheme with a well-known RSA scheme and also present the experimental results in the context of signing and verification execution times. By generalizing our observations, we discuss the different trade-offs involved in implementing IKE authentication by using certificateless signature.

Keywords: Certificateless signature, IPSec, RSA signature, IKE authentication.

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9909 UB-Tree Indexing for Semantic Query Optimization of Range Queries

Authors: S. Housseno, A. Simonet, M. Simonet

Abstract:

Semantic query optimization consists in restricting the search space in order to reduce the set of objects of interest for a query. This paper presents an indexing method based on UB-trees and a static analysis of the constraints associated to the views of the database and to any constraint expressed on attributes. The result of the static analysis is a partitioning of the object space into disjoint blocks. Through Space Filling Curve (SFC) techniques, each fragment (block) of the partition is assigned a unique identifier, enabling the efficient indexing of fragments by UB-trees. The search space corresponding to a range query is restricted to a subset of the blocks of the partition. This approach has been developed in the context of a KB-DBMS but it can be applied to any relational system.

Keywords: Index, Range query, UB-tree, Space Filling Curve, Query optimization, Views, Database, Integrity Constraint, Classification.

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9908 A New Design Partially Blind Signature Scheme Based on Two Hard Mathematical Problems

Authors: Nedal Tahat

Abstract:

Recently, many existing partially blind signature scheme based on a single hard problem such as factoring, discrete logarithm, residuosity or elliptic curve discrete logarithm problems. However sooner or later these systems will become broken and vulnerable, if the factoring or discrete logarithms problems are cracked. This paper proposes a secured partially blind signature scheme based on factoring (FAC) problem and elliptic curve discrete logarithms (ECDL) problem. As the proposed scheme is focused on factoring and ECDLP hard problems, it has a solid structure and will totally leave the intruder bemused because it is very unlikely to solve the two hard problems simultaneously. In order to assess the security level of the proposed scheme a performance analysis has been conducted. Results have proved that the proposed scheme effectively deals with the partial blindness, randomization, unlinkability and unforgeability properties. Apart from this we have also investigated the computation cost of the proposed scheme. The new proposed scheme is robust and it is difficult for the malevolent attacks to break our scheme.

Keywords: Cryptography, Partially Blind Signature, Factoring, Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithms.

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9907 Generalized Method for Estimating Best-Fit Vertical Alignments for Profile Data

Authors: Said M. Easa, Shinya Kikuchi

Abstract:

When the profile information of an existing road is missing or not up-to-date and the parameters of the vertical alignment are needed for engineering analysis, the engineer has to recreate the geometric design features of the road alignment using collected profile data. The profile data may be collected using traditional surveying methods, global positioning systems, or digital imagery. This paper develops a method that estimates the parameters of the geometric features that best characterize the existing vertical alignments in terms of tangents and the expressions of the curve, that may be symmetrical, asymmetrical, reverse, and complex vertical curves. The method is implemented using an Excel-based optimization method that minimizes the differences between the observed profile and the profiles estimated from the equations of the vertical curve. The method uses a 'wireframe' representation of the profile that makes the proposed method applicable to all types of vertical curves. A secondary contribution of this paper is to introduce the properties of the equal-arc asymmetrical curve that has been recently developed in the highway geometric design field.

Keywords: Optimization, parameters, data, reverse, spreadsheet, vertical curves

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9906 Probabilistic Model Development for Project Performance Forecasting

Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi

Abstract:

In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve

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9905 Mechanical Model of Gypsum Board Anchors Subjected Cyclic Shear Loading

Authors: Yoshinori Kitsutaka, Fumiya Ikedo

Abstract:

In this study, the mechanical model of various anchors embedded in gypsum board subjected cyclic shear loading were investigated. Shear tests for anchors embedded in 200 mm square size gypsum board were conducted to measure the load - load displacement curves. The strength of the gypsum board was changed for three conditions and 12 kinds of anchors were selected which were ordinary used for gypsum board anchoring. The loading conditions were a monotonous loading and a cyclic loading controlled by a servo-controlled hydraulic loading system to achieve accurate measurement. The fracture energy for each of the anchors was estimated by the analysis of consumed energy calculated by the load - load displacement curve. The effect of the strength of gypsum board and the types of anchors on the shear properties of gypsum board anchors was cleared. A numerical model to predict the load-unload curve of shear deformation of gypsum board anchors caused by such as the earthquake load was proposed and the validity on the model was proved.

Keywords: Gypsum board, anchor, shear test, cyclic loading, load-unload curve.

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