Search results for: Cost Variance

Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

Abstract:

This paper is to compare the parameter estimation of the mean in normal distribution by Maximum Likelihood (ML), Bayes, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The ML estimator is estimated by the average of data, the Bayes method is considered from the prior distribution to estimate Bayes estimator, and MCMC estimator is approximated by Gibbs sampling from posterior distribution. These methods are also to estimate a parameter then the hypothesis testing is used to check a robustness of the estimators. Data are simulated from normal distribution with the true parameter of mean 2, and variance 4, 9, and 16 when the sample sizes is set as 10, 20, 30, and 50. From the results, it can be seen that the estimation of MLE, and MCMC are perceivably different from the true parameter when the sample size is 10 and 20 with variance 16. Furthermore, the Bayes estimator is estimated from the prior distribution when mean is 1, and variance is 12 which showed the significant difference in mean with variance 9 at the sample size 10 and 20.

Keywords: Bayes method, Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, Maximum Likelihood method, normal distribution.

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Authors: Sa-aat Niwitpong, Rada Somkhuean, Suparat Niwitpong

Abstract:

This paper presents the generalized p-values for testing the Behrens-Fisher problem when one variance is unknown. We also derive a closed form expression of the upper bound of the proposed generalized p-value.

Keywords: Generalized p-value, hypothesis testing, upper bound.

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Authors: Amir Rastegarnia, Mohammad Ali Tinati, Azam Khalili

Abstract:

In this paper we consider the issue of distributed adaptive estimation over sensor networks. To deal with more realistic scenario, different variance for observation noise is assumed for sensors in the network. To solve the problem of different variance of observation noise, the proposed method is divided into two phases: I) Estimating each sensor-s observation noise variance and II) using the estimated variances to obtain the desired parameter. Our proposed algorithm is based on a diffusion least mean square (LMS) implementation with linear combiner model. In the proposed algorithm, the step-size parameter the coefficients of linear combiner are adjusted according to estimated observation noise variances. As the simulation results show, the proposed algorithm considerably improves the diffusion LMS algorithm given in literature.

Keywords: Adaptive filter, distributed estimation, sensor network, diffusion.

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Authors: Mohammed S. Al-Ansari

Abstract:

This paper presents an analytical model to estimate the cost of an optimized design of reinforced concrete isolated footing base on structural safety. Flexural and optimized formulas for square and rectangular footingare derived base on ACI building code of design, material cost and optimization. The optimization constraints consist of upper and lower limits of depth and area of steel. Footing depth and area of reinforcing steel are to be minimized to yield the optimal footing dimensions. Optimized footing materials cost of concrete, reinforcing steel and formwork of the designed sections are computed. Total cost factor TCF and other cost factors are developed to generalize and simplify the calculations of footing material cost. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the model capability of estimating the material cost of the footing for a desired axial load.

Keywords: Footing, Depth, Concrete, Steel, Formwork, Optimization, Material cost, Cost Factors.

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Authors: Suparat Niwitpong

Abstract:

Motivated by the recent work of Herbert, Hayen, Macaskill and Walter [Interval estimation for the difference of two independent variances. Communications in Statistics, Simulation and Computation, 40: 744-758, 2011.], we investigate, in this paper, new confidence intervals for the difference between two normal population variances based on the generalized confidence interval of Weerahandi [Generalized Confidence Intervals. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88(423): 899-905, 1993.] and the closed form method of variance estimation of Zou, Huo and Taleban [Simple confidence intervals for lognormal means and their differences with environmental applications. Environmetrics 20: 172-180, 2009]. Monte Carlo simulation results indicate that our proposed confidence intervals give a better coverage probability than that of the existing confidence interval. Also two new confidence intervals perform similarly based on their coverage probabilities and their average length widths.

Keywords: Confidence interval, generalized confidence interval, the closed form method of variance estimation, variance.

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Authors: Bright O. Osu, Edikan E. Akpanibah, Chidinma Olunkwa

Abstract:

In this paper, mean-variance optimization of portfolios with the return of premium clauses in a defined contribution (DC) pension plan with multiple contributors under constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model is studied. The return clauses which permit death members to claim their accumulated wealth are considered, the remaining wealth is not equally distributed by the remaining members as in literature. We assume that before investment, the surplus which includes funds of members who died after retirement adds to the total wealth. Next, we consider investments in a risk-free asset and a risky asset to meet up the expected returns of the remaining members and obtain an optimized problem with the help of extended Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation. We obtained the optimal investment strategies for the two assets and the efficient frontier of the members by using a stochastic optimal control technique. Furthermore, we studied the effect of the various parameters of the optimal investment strategies and the effect of the risk-averse level on the efficient frontier. We observed that the optimal investment strategy is the same as in literature, secondly, we observed that the surplus decreases the proportion of the wealth invested in the risky asset.

Keywords: DC pension fund, Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation, optimal investment strategies, stochastic optimal control technique, return of premiums clauses, mean-variance utility.

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Authors: Ilqar Ramazanli

Abstract:

The matrix completion problem has been studied broadly under many underlying conditions. In many real-life scenarios, we could expect elements from distinct columns or distinct positions to have a different cost. In this paper, we explore this generalization under adaptive conditions. We approach the problem under two different cost models. The first one is that entries from different columns have different observation costs, but, within the same column, each entry has a uniform cost. The second one is any two entry has different observation cost, despite being the same or different columns. We provide complexity analysis of our algorithms and provide tightness guarantees.

Keywords: Matrix completion, adaptive learning, heterogeneous cost, Matroid optimization.

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Authors: Jae Young Park, Soongyu Kwon, Kyu Han Kim, Hyeong Geon Lee, Jong Tae Kim

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This paper considers the problem of finding low cost chip set for a minimum cost partitioning of a large logic circuits. Chip sets are selected from a given library. Each chip in the library has a different price, area, and I/O pin. We propose a low cost chip set selection algorithm. Inputs to the algorithm are a netlist and a chip information in the library. Output is a list of chip sets satisfied with area and maximum partitioning number and it is sorted by cost. The algorithm finds the sorted list of chip sets from minimum cost to maximum cost. We used MCNC benchmark circuits for experiments. The experimental results show that all of chip sets found satisfy the multiple partitioning constraints.

Keywords: lowest cost chip set, MCNC benchmark, multi-way partitioning.

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Authors: Gaoyong Luo

Abstract:

The approach based on the wavelet transform has been widely used for image denoising due to its multi-resolution nature, its ability to produce high levels of noise reduction and the low level of distortion introduced. However, by removing noise, high frequency components belonging to edges are also removed, which leads to blurring the signal features. This paper proposes a new method of image noise reduction based on local variance and edge analysis. The analysis is performed by dividing an image into 32 x 32 pixel blocks, and transforming the data into wavelet domain. Fast lifting wavelet spatial-frequency decomposition and reconstruction is developed with the advantages of being computationally efficient and boundary effects minimized. The adaptive thresholding by local variance estimation and edge strength measurement can effectively reduce image noise while preserve the features of the original image corresponding to the boundaries of the objects. Experimental results demonstrate that the method performs well for images contaminated by natural and artificial noise, and is suitable to be adapted for different class of images and type of noises. The proposed algorithm provides a potential solution with parallel computation for real time or embedded system application.

Keywords: Edge strength, Fast lifting wavelet, Image denoising, Local variance.

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Authors: Md. Z. Alam, Devi R. Asih, Md. N. Salleh

Abstract:

Immobilization of lipase enzyme produced from palm oil mill effluent (POME) by the activated carbon (AC) among the low cost support materials was optimized. The results indicated that immobilization of 94% was achieved by AC as the most suitable support material. A sequential optimization strategy based on a statistical experimental design, including one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) method was used to determine the equilibrium time. Three components influencing lipase immobilization were optimized by the response surface methodology (RSM) based on the face-centered central composite design (FCCCD). On the statistical analysis of the results, the optimum enzyme concentration loading, agitation rate and carbon active dosage were found to be 30 U/ml, 300 rpm and 8 g/L respectively, with a maximum immobilization activity of 3732.9 U/g-AC after 2 hrs of immobilization. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed a high regression coefficient (R²) of 0.999, which indicated a satisfactory fit of the model with the experimental data. The parameters were statistically significant at p<0.05.

Keywords: Activated carbon, adsorption, immobilization, POME based lipase.

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Authors: Sa-aat Niwitpong

Abstract:

Recent articles have addressed the problem to construct the confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution where the parameter space is restricted, see for example Wang [Confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution with restricted parameter space. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, Vol. 78, No. 9, 2008, 829–841.], we derived, in this paper, analytic expressions of the coverage probability and the expected length of confidence interval for the normal mean when the whole parameter space is bounded. We also construct the confidence interval for the normal variance with restricted parameter for the first time and its coverage probability and expected length are also mathematically derived. As a result, one can use these criteria to assess the confidence interval for the normal mean and variance when the parameter space is restricted without the back up from simulation experiments.

Keywords: Confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, restricted parameter space.

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Authors: Mohamed A. Ismail, Samar M. M. Abdelmageed

Abstract:

The main objective of this paper is to estimate the cost of road traffic accidents in Egypt. The Human Capital (HC) approach, specifically the Gross-Loss-of-Output methodology, is adopted for estimation. Moreover, cost values obtained by previous national literature are updated using the inflation rates. The results indicate an estimated cost of road traffic accidents in Egypt of approximately 10 billion Egyptian Pounds (about $US 1.8 billion) for the year 2008. In addition, it is expected that this cost will rise in 2009 to 11.8 billion Egyptian Pounds (about $US 2.1 billion).

Keywords: Cost, Gross-Loss-of-Output, Human CapitalApproach, Road Traffic Accidents.

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Authors: Elsheikh Asser

Abstract:

Time and cost are the main goals of the construction project management. The first schedule developed may not be a suitable schedule for beginning or completing the project to achieve the target completion time at a minimum total cost. In general, there are trade-offs between time and cost (TCT) to complete the activities of a project. This research presents genetic algorithms (GAs) multiobjective model for project scheduling considering different scenarios such as least cost, least time, and target time.

Keywords: Genetic algorithms, Time-cost trade-off.

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Authors: Farhad Kolahan, Mahdi Abachizadeh

Abstract:

In this paper, a simulated annealing algorithm has been developed to optimize machining parameters in turning operation on cylindrical workpieces. The turning operation usually includes several passes of rough machining and a final pass of finishing. Seven different constraints are considered in a non-linear model where the goal is to achieve minimum total cost. The weighted total cost consists of machining cost, tool cost and tool replacement cost. The computational results clearly show that the proposed optimization procedure has considerably improved total operation cost by optimally determining machining parameters.

Keywords: Optimization, Simulated Annealing, Machining Parameters, Turning Operation.

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Authors: N. Katemee, T. Mayureesawan

Abstract:

This paper developed the c-Chart based on a Zero- Inflated Poisson (ZIP) processes that approximated by a geometric distribution with parameter p. The p estimated that fit for ZIP distribution used in calculated the mean, median, and variance of geometric distribution for constructed the c-Chart by three difference methods. For cg-Chart, developed c-Chart by used the mean and variance of the geometric distribution constructed control limits. For cmg-Chart, the mean used for constructed the control limits. The cme- Chart, developed control limits of c-Chart from median and variance values of geometric distribution. The performance of charts considered from the Average Run Length and Average Coverage Probability. We found that for an in-control process, the cg-Chart is superior for low level of mean at all level of proportion zero. For an out-of-control process, the cmg-Chart and cme-Chart are the best for mean = 2, 3 and 4 at all level of parameter.

Keywords: average coverage probability, average run length, geometric distribution, zero-inflated poisson distribution

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Authors: Javad Elkaie Behjati, Mehrzad Minouei

Abstract:

The present study aimed to assess the cost of money based on separating deposits and identifying actions and costs affecting in the process of cost of money in EN Bank of Iran (also known as Eghtesad Novin Bank). The method to calculate the cost of money is based on Activity-Based Costing (ABC). To conduct the study, the required data including deposits in banks and absorbed costs related to the same deposits were extracted from the financial statements of the bank. In order to cost the bank services properly as well as determining the commercial strategies required by commercial units, the data are precisely studied and the cost of each deposit is calculated according to the ABC. Eventually, the factors helping to improve the cost management and also a new model to calculate the cost of money in the bank are presented by some applicable formulas. Furthermore, some offers have been provided for users of both sections, in the practical section in commercial units and the theoretical one in universities.

Keywords: The cost of money, activity-based costing, banking, bank deposits, bank fees, services bank.

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Authors: W. Z. Taffese

Abstract:

This work presents a low-cost and eco-friendly building material named Agrostone panel. Africa-s urban population is growing at an annual rate of 2.8% and 62% of its population will live in urban areas by 2050. As a consequence, many of the least urbanized and least developed African countries- will face serious challenges in providing affordable housing to the urban dwellers. Since the cost of building materials accounts for the largest proportion of the overall construction cost, innovating low-cost building material is vital. Agrostone panel is used in housing projects in Ethiopia. It uses raw materials of agricultural/industrial wastes and/or natural minerals as a filler, magnesium-based chemicals as a binder and fiberglass as reinforcement. Agrostone panel reduces the cost of wall construction by 50% compared with the conventional building materials. The pros and cons of Agrostone panel as well as the use of other waste materials as a raw material to make the panel more sustainable, low-cost and better properties are discussed.

Keywords: Agrostone Panel, Low-cost and sustainable Building Materials, Agro-waste for construction

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Authors: T. Theodosiou, P. Polychronidou, A. G. Karasavvoglou

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The latest years the number of immigrants at Greece has increased dramatically. Their impact on the National Health System (NHS) has not been yet thoroughly investigated. This paper analyses the cost of immigrants to the NHS hospitals of the region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace. The data are collected from 2005 to 2011 from five different hospitals and are analysed using linear mixed effects models in order to investigate the effects of nationality and year on the cost of hospitalization and treatment. The results show that generally the Greek nationality patients have a higher mean cost of hospitalization compared to the immigrants and that there is an increasing trend for the cost except for the year 2010.

Keywords: Cost, Eastern Macedonia, Thrace, immigrants, national health system.

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Authors: Thi T. Nguyen, Lee N. Gordon-Brown

Abstract:

A new deployment of the multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques: the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW), and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) for portfolio allocation, is demonstrated in this paper. Rather than exclusive reference to mean and variance as in the traditional mean-variance method, the criteria used in this demonstration are the first four moments of the portfolio distribution. Each asset is evaluated based on its marginal impacts to portfolio higher moments that are characterized by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Then centroid-based defuzzification is applied to convert fuzzy numbers to the crisp numbers by which SAW and TOPSIS can be deployed. Experimental results suggest the similar efficiency of these MCDM approaches to selecting dominant assets for an optimal portfolio under higher moments. The proposed approaches allow investors flexibly adjust their risk preferences regarding higher moments via different schemes adapting to various (from conservative to risky) kinds of investors. The other significant advantage is that, compared to the mean-variance analysis, the portfolio weights obtained by SAW and TOPSIS are consistently well-diversified.

Keywords: Fuzzy numbers, SAW, TOPSIS, portfolio optimization, higher moments, risk management.

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Authors: Ghaleb Y. Abbasi, Sufyan Al-Mrayat

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This study examined the contribution of 36 factors to building construction project’s cost overrun in Jordan. A questionnaire was distributed to a random sample of 350 stakeholders comprised of owners, consultants, and contractors, of which 285 responded. SPSS analysis was conducted to identify the top five causes of cost overrun, which were a large number of variation orders, inadequate quantities provided in the contract, misunderstanding of the project plan, incomplete bid documents, and choosing the lowest price in the contract bidding. There was an agreement among the study participants in ranking the factors contributing to cost overrun, which indicated that these factors were very commonly encountered in most construction projects in Jordan. Thus, it is crucial to enhance the collaboration among the different project stakeholders to understand the project’s objectives and set a realistic plan that takes into consideration all the factors that might influence the project cost, which might eventually prevent cost overrun.

Keywords: Cost, overrun, building construction projects, Jordan.

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Authors: M. Mahdavi, E. Mahdavi

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In this research, STNEP is being studied considering network adequacy and limitation of investment cost by decimal codification genetic algorithm (DCGA). The goal is obtaining the maximum of network adequacy with lowest expansion cost for a specific investment. Finally, the proposed idea is applied to the Garvers 6-bus network. The results show that considering the network adequacy for solution of STNEP problem is caused that among of expansion plans for a determined investment, configuration which has relatively lower expansion cost and higher adequacy is proposed by GA based method. Finally, with respect to the curve of adequacy versus expansion cost it can be said that more optimal configurations for expansion of network are obtained with lower investment costs.

Keywords: TNEP, Network Adequacy, Investment Cost, GA

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Authors: I. Ionascu, M. Ionascu, D.-A. Calu, L. Olimid

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This paper investigates several factors affecting the cost of capital for listed Romanian companies. Although there is a large amount of literature investigating the drivers of the cost of capital internationally, there is currently little evidence from emergent markets. Based on a sample of 19 Romanian listed companies followed by financial analysts for the years 2008-2010, according to Thomson Reuters- I/B/E/S data base, the paper confirms the international trends, showing that size, corporate governance policies, and growth are negatively correlated with the cost of capital.

Keywords: Corporate governance, determinants of the cost of capital, emergent markets.

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Authors: M. Arja, G. Sauce, B. Souyri

Abstract:

Overall cost is a significant consideration in any decision-making process. Although many studies were carried out on overall cost in construction, little has treated the uncertainties of real life cycle development. On the basis of several case studies, a feedback process was performed on the historical data of studied buildings. This process enabled to identify some factors causing uncertainty during the operational period. As a result, the research proposes a new method for assessing the overall cost during a part of the building-s life cycle taking account of the building actual value, its end-of-life value and the influence of the identified life cycle uncertainty factors. The findings are a step towards a higher level of reliability in overall cost evaluation taking account of some usually unexpected uncertainty factors.

Keywords: Asset management, building life cycle uncertainty, building value, overall cost.

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Authors: Derya Eren Akyol, Gonca Tuncel, G. Mirac Bayhan

Abstract:

Activity-Based Costing (ABC) represents an alternative paradigm to traditional cost accounting system and it often provides more accurate cost information for decision making such as product pricing, product mix, and make-orbuy decisions. ABC models the causal relationships between products and the resources used in their production and traces the cost of products according to the activities through the use of appropriate cost drivers. In this paper, the implementation of the ABC in a manufacturing system is analyzed and a comparison with the traditional cost based system in terms of the effects on the product costs are carried out to highlight the difference between two costing methodologies. By using this methodology, a valuable insight into the factors that cause the cost is provided, helping to better manage the activities of the company.

Keywords: Activity-based costing, manufacturing systems, product costs, traditional costing.

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi, Aref Ghafouri

Abstract:

In this paper, we considered and applied parametric modeling for some experimental data of dynamical system. In this study, we investigated the different distribution of output measurement from some dynamical systems. Also, with variance processing in experimental data we obtained the region of nonlinearity in experimental data and then identification of output section is applied in different situation and data distribution. Finally, the effect of the spanning the measurement such as variance to identification and limitation of this approach is explained.

Keywords: Gaussian process, Nonlinearity distribution, Particle filter.

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi, Aref Ghafouri

Abstract:

Performance of different filtering approaches depends on modeling of dynamical system and algorithm structure. For modeling and smoothing the data the evaluation of posterior distribution in different filtering approach should be chosen carefully. In this paper different filtering approaches like filter KALMAN, EKF, UKF, EKS and smoother RTS is simulated in some trajectory tracking of path and accuracy and limitation of these approaches are explained. Then probability of model with different filters is compered and finally the effect of the noise variance to estimation is described with simulations results.

Keywords: Gaussian approximation, KALMAN smoother, Parameter estimation.

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Authors: K. M. Oba

Abstract:

The transportation modelling technique was adopted in the solution of the problem of transportation of Plaster of Paris (POP) cement from three supply locations (construction materials markets) to three demand locations (construction sites) in Port Harcourt. The study was carried out for 40 kg bags of POP cement fully loaded on 600 bags per truck from the three selected construction materials markets in Port Harcourt. The costs of transporting the POP cement were determined and subjected to the North-West Corner, Least Cost, and Vogel’s approximation methods to determine the initial feasible solution. Of the three results, the Least Cost Method turned out to have the lowest cost. Using the Stepping Stone Method, the optimum shipping cost was finally attained after two successive iterations. The optimum shipping cost was calculated to be $1,690 or ₦1,774,500 as of October 2023. As a result of this study, the application of transportation modelling can boost the effective management of the transportation of POP cement in construction projects.

Keywords: Cost of POP cement, management of transportation, optimization of shipping cost, Plaster of Paris, transportation model.

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Authors: Wei Lo, Ming-En Kuo

Abstract:

While to minimize the overall project cost is always one of the objectives of construction managers, to obtain the maximum economic return is definitely one the ultimate goals of the project investors. As there is a trade-off relationship between the project time and cost, and the project delivery time directly affects the timing of economic recovery of an investment project, to provide a method that can quantify the relationship between the project delivery time and cost, and identify the optimal delivery time to maximize economic return has always been the focus of researchers and industrial practitioners. Using genetic algorithms, this study introduces an optimization model that can quantify the relationship between the project delivery time and cost and furthermore, determine the optimal delivery time to maximize the economic return of the project. The results provide objective quantification for accurately evaluating the project delivery time and cost, and facilitate the analysis of the economic return of a project.

Keywords: Time-Cost Trade-Off, Genetic Algorithms, Resource Integration, Economic return.

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Authors: A. K. Jain, M. C. Paliwal

Abstract:

Construction cost in India is increasing at around 50 per cent over the average inflation levels. It have registered increase of up to 15 per cent every year, primarily due to cost of basic building materials such as steel, cement, bricks, timber and other inputs as well as cost of labour. As a result, the cost of construction using conventional building materials and construction is becoming beyond the affordable limits particularly for low-income groups of population as well as a large cross section of the middle - income groups. Therefore, there is a need to adopt cost-effective construction methods either by up-gradation of traditional technologies using local resources or applying modern construction materials and techniques with efficient inputs leading to economic solutions. This has become the most relevant aspect in the context of the large volume of housing to be constructed in both rural and urban areas and the consideration of limitations in the availability of resources such as building materials and finance. This paper makes an overview of the housing status in India and adoption of appropriate and cost effective technologies in the country.

Keywords: Appropriate, Cost Effective, Ekra, Five year plan, Poverty

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Authors: F. H. Abanda, B. Kamsu-Foguem, J. H. M. Tah

Abstract:

Construction cost estimation is one of the most important aspects of construction project design. For generations, the process of cost estimating has been manual, time-consuming and error-prone. This has partly led to most cost estimates to be unclear and riddled with inaccuracies that at times lead to over- or underestimation of construction cost. The development of standard set of measurement rules that are understandable by all those involved in a construction project, have not totally solved the challenges. Emerging Building Information Modelling (BIM) technologies can exploit standard measurement methods to automate cost estimation process and improve accuracies. This requires standard measurement methods to be structured in ontological and machine readable format; so that BIM software packages can easily read them. Most standard measurement methods are still text-based in textbooks and require manual editing into tables or Spreadsheet during cost estimation. The aim of this study is to explore the development of an ontology based on New Rules of Measurement (NRM) commonly used in the UK for cost estimation. The methodology adopted is Methontology, one of the most widely used ontology engineering methodologies. The challenges in this exploratory study are also reported and recommendations for future studies proposed.

Keywords: BIM, Construction projects, Cost estimation, NRM, Ontology.

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