Search results for: change propagation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2086

Search results for: change propagation

1576 Lookup Table Reduction and Its Error Analysis of Hall Sensor-Based Rotation Angle Measurement

Authors: Young-San Shin, Seongsoo Lee

Abstract:

Hall sensor is widely used to measure rotation angle. When the Hall voltage is measured for linear displacement, it is converted to angular displacement using arctangent function, which requires a large lookup table. In this paper, a lookup table reduction technique is presented for angle measurement. When the input of the lookup table is small within a certain threshold, the change of the outputs with respect to the change of the inputs is relatively small. Thus, several inputs can share same output, which significantly reduce the lookup table size. Its error analysis was also performed, and the threshold was determined so as to maintain the error less than 1°. When the Hall voltage has 11-bit resolution, the lookup table size is reduced from 1,024 samples to 279 samples.

Keywords: Hall sensor, angle measurement, lookup table, arctangent.

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1575 Risk Factors’ Analysis on Shanghai Carbon Trading

Authors: Zhaojun Wang, Zongdi Sun, Zhiyuan Liu

Abstract:

First of all, the carbon trading price and trading volume in Shanghai are transformed by Fourier transform, and the frequency response diagram is obtained. Then, the frequency response diagram is analyzed and the Blackman filter is designed. The Blackman filter is used to filter, and the carbon trading time domain and frequency response diagram are obtained. After wavelet analysis, the carbon trading data were processed; respectively, we got the average value for each 5 days, 10 days, 20 days, 30 days, and 60 days. Finally, the data are used as input of the Back Propagation Neural Network model for prediction.

Keywords: Shanghai carbon trading, carbon trading price, carbon trading volume, wavelet analysis, BP neural network model.

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1574 A Legal Opinion on Mitigation and Adaptation on Air Pollution Strategies for Local Governments in South Africa

Authors: Marjone Van Der Bank, C. M. Van Der Bank

Abstract:

This paper presents an overview of the foundation and evolution of environmental related problems in local governments with specific reference on air pollution in South Africa. Local government has a direct mandate in terms of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996 (hereafter, the Constitution). This mandate to protect, fulfil, respect and promote the Bill of Rights by local governments in respect of the powers and functions creates confusion around the role of where a local government fits in, in addressing the problem of climate change in South Africa. A reflection of the evolving legislations, developments, and processes regarding climate change that shaped local government dispensation in South Africa is addressed by the notion of developmental local governments. This paper seeks to examine the advances for mitigation and adaptation regulation of air pollution and application in South Africa. This study involves a qualitative approach that will involve South African national legislation as well as an interpretation of international strategies. A literature review study was conducted to undertake the various aspects of law in order to support the argument undertaken of mitigation and adaptation strategies. The paper presents a detailed discussion of the current legislation and the position as it currently stands, as well as the relevant protections as outlined in the National Environmental Management Act and the National Environmental Management: Air Quality Act. It then proceeds to outline the responsibilities of local governments in South Africa to mitigate and adapt to air pollution strategies.

Keywords: Adaptation, climate change, disaster, local governments, mitigation.

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1573 Finite Element Modeling for Clamping Stresses Developed in Hot-Driven Steel Structural Riveted Connections

Authors: Jackeline Kafie-Martinez, Peter B. Keating

Abstract:

A three-dimensional finite element model is developed to capture the stress field generated in connected plates during the installation of hot-driven rivets. Clamping stress is generated when a steel rivet heated to approximately 1000 °C comes in contact with the material to be fastened at ambient temperature. As the rivet cools, thermal contraction subjects the rivet into tensile stress, while the material being fastened is subjected to compressive stress. Model characteristics and assumptions, as well as steel properties variation with respect to temperature are discussed. The thermal stresses developed around the rivet hole are assessed and reported. Results from the analysis are utilized to detect possible regions for fatigue crack propagation under cyclic loads.

Keywords: Jackeline Kafie-Martinez, Peter B. Keating.

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1572 Mapping of Solar Radiation Anomalies Based on Climate Change

Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Francisco Pereira, Elton Rossini

Abstract:

The use of alternative energy sources to meet energy demand reduces environmental damage. To diversify an energy matrix and to minimize global warming, a solar energy is gaining space, being an important source of renewable energy, and its potential depends on the climatic conditions of the region. Brazil presents a great solar potential for a generation of electric energy, so the knowledge of solar radiation and its characteristics are fundamental for the study of energy use. Due to the above reasons, this article aims to verify the climatic variability corresponding to the variations in solar radiation anomalies, in the face of climate change scenarios. The data used in this research are part of the Intercomparison of Interconnected Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which contributed to the preparation of the fifth IPCC-AR5 report. The solar radiation data were extracted from The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) model using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios that represent an intermediate structure and a pessimistic framework, the latter being the most worrisome in all cases. In order to allow the use of solar radiation as a source of energy in a given location and/or region, it is important, first, to determine its availability, thus justifying the importance of the study. The results pointed out, for the 75-year period (2026-2100), based on a pessimistic scenario, indicate a drop in solar radiation of the approximately 12% in the eastern region of Rio Grande do Sul. Factors that influence the pessimistic prospects of this scenario should be better observed by the responsible authorities, since they can affect the possibility to produce electricity from solar radiation.

Keywords: Climate change, solar radiation, energy utilization.

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1571 A Neural Approach for the Offline Recognition of the Arabic Handwritten Words of the Algerian Departments

Authors: Salim Ouchtati, Jean Sequeira, Mouldi Bedda

Abstract:

In the context of the handwriting recognition, we propose an off line system for the recognition of the Arabic handwritten words of the Algerian departments. The study is based mainly on the evaluation of neural network performances, trained with the gradient back propagation algorithm. The used parameters to form the input vector of the neural network are extracted on the binary images of the handwritten word by several methods. The Distribution parameters, the centered moments of the different projections of the different segments, the centered moments of the word image coding according to the directions of Freeman, and the Barr features applied binary image of the word and on its different segments. The classification is achieved by a multi layers perceptron. A detailed experiment is carried and satisfactory recognition results are reported.

Keywords: Handwritten word recognition, neural networks, image processing, pattern recognition, features extraction.

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1570 The Effect of Treated Waste-Water on Compaction and Compression of Fine Soil

Authors: M. Attom, F. Abed, M. Elemam, M. Nazal, N. ElMessalami

Abstract:

—The main objective of this paper is to study the effect of treated waste-water (TWW) on the compaction and compressibility properties of fine soil. Two types of fine soils (clayey soils) were selected for this study and classified as CH soil and Cl type of soil. Compaction and compressibility properties such as optimum water content, maximum dry unit weight, consolidation index and swell index, maximum past pressure and volume change were evaluated using both tap and treated waste water. It was found that the use of treated waste water affects all of these properties. The maximum dry unit weight increased for both soils and the optimum water content decreased as much as 13.6% for highly plastic soil. The significant effect was observed in swell index and swelling pressure of the soils. The swell indexed decreased by as much as 42% and 33% for highly plastic and low plastic soils, respectively, when TWW is used. Additionally, the swelling pressure decreased by as much as 16% for both soil types. The result of this research pointed out that the use of treated waste water has a positive effect on compaction and compression properties of clay soil and promise for potential use of this water in engineering applications. Keywords—Consolidation, proctor compaction, swell index, treated waste-water, volume change.

Keywords: Consolidation, proctor compaction, swell index, treated waste-water, volume change.

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1569 Study and Evaluation of Added Stresses under Foundation due to Adjacent Structure

Authors: Alireza M. goltabar, Issa shooshpasha , Reza Shamstabar kami , Mostafa Habibi

Abstract:

Added stresses due to adjacent structure should be considered in foundation design and stress control in soil under the structure. This case is considered less than other cases in design and calculation whereas stresses in implementation are greater than analytical stress. Structure load are transmitted to earth by foundation and role of foundation is propagation of load on the continuous and half extreme soil. This act cause that, present stresses lessen to allowable strength of soil. Some researchers such as Boussinesq and westergaurd by using of some assumption studied on this issue, theorically. Target of this paper is study and evaluation of added stresses under structure due to adjacent structure. For this purpose, by using of assumption, theoric relation and numeral methods, effects of adjacent structure with 4 to 10 storeys on the main structure with 4 storeys are studied and effect of parameters and sensitivity of them are evaluated.

Keywords: stress, soil, adjacent structure, foundation, loading.

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1568 Learning Flexible Neural Networks for Pattern Recognition

Authors: A. Mirzaaghazadeh, H. Motameni, M. Karshenas, H. Nematzadeh

Abstract:

Learning the gradient of neuron's activity function like the weight of links causes a new specification which is flexibility. In flexible neural networks because of supervising and controlling the operation of neurons, all the burden of the learning is not dedicated to the weight of links, therefore in each period of learning of each neuron, in fact the gradient of their activity function, cooperate in order to achieve the goal of learning thus the number of learning will be decreased considerably. Furthermore, learning neurons parameters immunes them against changing in their inputs and factors which cause such changing. Likewise initial selecting of weights, type of activity function, selecting the initial gradient of activity function and selecting a fixed amount which is multiplied by gradient of error to calculate the weight changes and gradient of activity function, has a direct affect in convergence of network for learning.

Keywords: Back propagation, Flexible, Gradient, Learning, Neural network, Pattern recognition.

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1567 Identify Features and Parameters to Devise an Accurate Intrusion Detection System Using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Saman M. Abdulla, Najla B. Al-Dabagh, Omar Zakaria

Abstract:

The aim of this article is to explain how features of attacks could be extracted from the packets. It also explains how vectors could be built and then applied to the input of any analysis stage. For analyzing, the work deploys the Feedforward-Back propagation neural network to act as misuse intrusion detection system. It uses ten types if attacks as example for training and testing the neural network. It explains how the packets are analyzed to extract features. The work shows how selecting the right features, building correct vectors and how correct identification of the training methods with nodes- number in hidden layer of any neural network affecting the accuracy of system. In addition, the work shows how to get values of optimal weights and use them to initialize the Artificial Neural Network.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Attack Features, MisuseIntrusion Detection System, Training Parameters.

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1566 Designing Early Warning System: Prediction Accuracy of Currency Crisis by Using k-Nearest Neighbour Method

Authors: Nor Azuana Ramli, Mohd Tahir Ismail, Hooy Chee Wooi

Abstract:

Developing a stable early warning system (EWS) model that is capable to give an accurate prediction is a challenging task. This paper introduces k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) method which never been applied in predicting currency crisis before with the aim of increasing the prediction accuracy. The proposed k-NN performance depends on the choice of a distance that is used where in our analysis; we take the Euclidean distance and the Manhattan as a consideration. For the comparison, we employ three other methods which are logistic regression analysis (logit), back-propagation neural network (NN) and sequential minimal optimization (SMO). The analysis using datasets from 8 countries and 13 macro-economic indicators for each country shows that the proposed k-NN method with k = 4 and Manhattan distance performs better than the other methods.

Keywords: Currency crisis, k-nearest neighbour method, logit, neural network.

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1565 RANFIS : Rough Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

Authors: Sandeep Chandana, Rene V. Mayorga

Abstract:

The paper presents a new hybridization methodology involving Neural, Fuzzy and Rough Computing. A Rough Sets based approximation technique has been proposed based on a certain Neuro – Fuzzy architecture. A New Rough Neuron composition consisting of a combination of a Lower Bound neuron and a Boundary neuron has also been described. The conventional convergence of error in back propagation has been given away for a new framework based on 'Output Excitation Factor' and an inverse input transfer function. The paper also presents a brief comparison of performances, of the existing Rough Neural Networks and ANFIS architecture against the proposed methodology. It can be observed that the rough approximation based neuro-fuzzy architecture is superior to its counterparts.

Keywords: Boundary neuron, neuro-fuzzy, output excitation factor, RANFIS, rough approximation, rough neural computing.

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1564 Change of the Thermal Conductivity of Polystyrene Insulation in term of Temperature at the Mid Thickness of the Insulation Material: Impact on the Cooling Load

Authors: M. Khoukhi

Abstract:

Accurate prediction of the cooling/heating load and consequently, the sizing of the heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning equipment require precise calculation of the heat transfer mainly by conduction through envelope components of a building. The thermal resistance of most thermal insulation materials depends on the operating temperature. The temperature to which the insulation materials are exposed varies, depending on the thermal resistance of the materials, the location of the insulation layer within the assembly system, and the effective temperature which depends on the amount of solar radiation received on the surface of the assembly. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the change of the thermal conductivity of polystyrene insulation material in terms of the temperature at the mid-thickness of the material and its effect on the cooling load required by the building.

Keywords: Operating temperature, polystyrene insulation, thermal conductivity, cooling load.

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1563 A Study on the Performance Characteristics of Variable Valve for Reverse Continuous Damper

Authors: Se Kyung Oh, Young Hwan Yoon, Ary Bachtiar Krishna

Abstract:

Nowadays, a passenger car suspension must has high performance criteria with light weight, low cost, and low energy consumption. Pilot controlled proportional valve is designed and analyzed to get small pressure change rate after blow-off, and to get a fast response of the damper, a reverse damping mechanism is adapted. The reverse continuous variable damper is designed as a HS-SH damper which offers good body control with reduced transferred input force from the tire, compared with any other type of suspension system. The damper structure is designed, so that rebound and compression damping forces can be tuned independently, of which the variable valve is placed externally. The rate of pressure change with respect to the flow rate after blow-off becomes smooth when the fixed orifice size increases, which means that the blow-off slope is controllable using the fixed orifice size. Damping forces are measured with the change of the solenoid current at the different piston velocities to confirm the maximum hysteresis of 20 N, linearity, and variance of damping force. The damping force variance is wide and continuous, and is controlled by the spool opening, of which scheme is usually adapted in proportional valves. The reverse continuous variable damper developed in this study is expected to be utilized in the semi-active suspension systems in passenger cars after its performance and simplicity of the design is confirmed through a real car test.

Keywords: Blow-off, damping force, pilot controlledproportional valve, reverse continuous damper.

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1562 Assessment of Channel Unavailability Effect on the Wireless Networks Teletraffic Modeling and Analysis

Authors: Eman S. El-Din, Hesham M. El-Badawy, Salwa H. Elramly

Abstract:

Whereas cellular wireless communication systems are subject to short-and long-term fading. The effect of wireless channel has largely been ignored in most of the teletraffic assessment researches. In this paper, a mathematical teletraffic model is proposed to estimate blocking and forced termination probabilities of cellular wireless networks as a result of teletraffic behavior as well as the outage of the propagation channel. To evaluate the proposed teletraffic model, gamma inter-arrival and general service time distributions have been considered based on wireless channel fading effect. The performance is evaluated and compared with the classical model. The proposed model is dedicated and investigated in different operational conditions. These conditions will consider not only the arrival rate process, but also, the different faded channels models.

Keywords: Cellular wireless networks, outage probability, traffic model, gamma inter-arrival distribution.

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1561 Analysis and Simulation of TM Fields in Waveguides with Arbitrary Cross-Section Shapes by Means of Evolutionary Equations of Time-Domain Electromagnetic Theory

Authors: Ömer Aktaş, Olga A. Suvorova, Oleg Tretyakov

Abstract:

The boundary value problem on non-canonical and arbitrary shaped contour is solved with a numerically effective method called Analytical Regularization Method (ARM) to calculate propagation parameters. As a result of regularization, the equation of first kind is reduced to the infinite system of the linear algebraic equations of the second kind in the space of L2. This equation can be solved numerically for desired accuracy by using truncation method. The parameters as cut-off wavenumber and cut-off frequency are used in waveguide evolutionary equations of electromagnetic theory in time-domain to illustrate the real-valued TM fields with lossy and lossless media.

Keywords: Arbitrary cross section waveguide, analytical regularization method, evolutionary equations of electromagnetic theory of time-domain, TM field.

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1560 Extinct Ponds: Potential for Increasing Landscape Retention Capacity?

Authors: Vaclav David, Tereza Davidova

Abstract:

The restoration of extinct ponds is considered as one of ways to gain new retention capacities for water which is getting much more important issue with respect to expected impacts of a climate change. However, there are also other pressures on the landscape which must be all taken into consideration when making a decision on the possible restoration of extinct ponds. The research presented here focuses besides others on the restoration of former ponds which could be important for both the flood protection and drought impacts prevention. The first step of the methodology development for the assessment of such areas is the assessment of their present state. In this paper, the results of land use types assessment for 22 localities are presented. These results confirm the assumption that the most present land use type in such areas is the permanent grassland. However, the spectra of land use types present in extinct pond areas is very diverse and include besides others also airport areas and industry.

Keywords: Extinct pond, land use change, sustainable water resources management, pond restoration.

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1559 Enhancement of Low Contrast Satellite Images using Discrete Cosine Transform and Singular Value Decomposition

Authors: A. K. Bhandari, A. Kumar, P. K. Padhy

Abstract:

In this paper, a novel contrast enhancement technique for contrast enhancement of a low-contrast satellite image has been proposed based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) and discrete cosine transform (DCT). The singular value matrix represents the intensity information of the given image and any change on the singular values change the intensity of the input image. The proposed technique converts the image into the SVD-DCT domain and after normalizing the singular value matrix; the enhanced image is reconstructed by using inverse DCT. The visual and quantitative results suggest that the proposed SVD-DCT method clearly shows the increased efficiency and flexibility of the proposed method over the exiting methods such as Linear Contrast Stretching technique, GHE technique, DWT-SVD technique, DWT technique, Decorrelation Stretching technique, Gamma Correction method based techniques.

Keywords: Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), discretecosine transforms (DCT), image equalization and satellite imagecontrast enhancement.

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1558 Urban Growth Prediction in Athens, Greece, Using Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: D. Triantakonstantis, D. Stathakis

Abstract:

Urban areas have been expanded throughout the globe. Monitoring and modelling urban growth have become a necessity for a sustainable urban planning and decision making. Urban prediction models are important tools for analyzing the causes and consequences of urban land use dynamics. The objective of this research paper is to analyze and model the urban change, which has been occurred from 1990 to 2000 using CORINE land cover maps. The model was developed using drivers of urban changes (such as road distance, slope, etc.) under an Artificial Neural Network modelling approach. Validation was achieved using a prediction map for 2006 which was compared with a real map of Urban Atlas of 2006. The accuracy produced a Kappa index of agreement of 0,639 and a value of Cramer's V of 0,648. These encouraging results indicate the importance of the developed urban growth prediction model which using a set of available common biophysical drivers could serve as a management tool for the assessment of urban change.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, CORINE, Urban Atlas, Urban Growth Prediction.

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1557 Propagation of Viscous Waves and Activation Energy of Hydrocarbon Fluids

Authors: Ram N. Singh, Abraham K. George, Dawood N. Al-Namaani

Abstract:

The Euler-s equation of motion is extended to include the viscosity stress tensor leading to the formulation of Navier– Stokes type equation. The latter is linearized and applied to investigate the rotational motion or vorticity in a viscous fluid. Relations for the velocity of viscous waves and attenuation parameter are obtained in terms of viscosity (μ) and the density (¤ü) of the fluid. μ and ¤ü are measured experimentally as a function of temperature for two different samples of light and heavy crude oil. These data facilitated to determine the activation energy, velocity of viscous wave and the attenuation parameter. Shear wave velocity in heavy oil is found to be much larger than the light oil, whereas the attenuation parameter in heavy oil is quite low in comparison to light one. The activation energy of heavy oil is three times larger than light oil.

Keywords: Activation Energy, Attenuation, Crude Oil, Navier- Stokes Equation, Viscosity.

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1556 Renovation of Industrial Zones in Ho Chi Minh City: An Approach from Changing Function of Processing to Urban Warehousing

Authors: Thu Le Thi Bao

Abstract:

Industrial parks have both active roles in promoting economic development, and source of appearance of boarding houses and slums in the adjacent area, lacking infrastructure, causing many social matters. The context of recent pandemic and climate change on a global scale pose issues that need to be resolved for sustainable development. Ho Chi Minh city aims to develop housing for migrant workers to stabilize human resources and at the same time, solve problems of social evils caused by poor living conditions. The paper focuses on the content of renovating existing industrial parks and worker accommodation in Ho Chi Minh city to propose appropriate models, contributing to the goal of urban embellishment and solutions for industrial parks to adapt to decree 29/2008/ND-CP abnormal impact conditions such as pandemics, climate change, crises.

Keywords: Industrial park, social housing, accommodation, distribution centre.

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1555 Mobile Robot Navigation Using Local Model Networks

Authors: Hamdi. A. Awad, Mohamed A. Al-Zorkany

Abstract:

Developing techniques for mobile robot navigation constitutes one of the major trends in the current research on mobile robotics. This paper develops a local model network (LMN) for mobile robot navigation. The LMN represents the mobile robot by a set of locally valid submodels that are Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs). Training these submodels employs Back Propagation (BP) algorithm. The paper proposes the fuzzy C-means (FCM) in this scheme to divide the input space to sub regions, and then a submodel (MLP) is identified to represent a particular region. The submodels then are combined in a unified structure. In run time phase, Radial Basis Functions (RBFs) are employed as windows for the activated submodels. This proposed structure overcomes the problem of changing operating regions of mobile robots. Read data are used in all experiments. Results for mobile robot navigation using the proposed LMN reflect the soundness of the proposed scheme.

Keywords: Mobile Robot Navigation, Neural Networks, Local Model Networks

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1554 Effect of Adaptation Gain on system Performance for Model Reference Adaptive Control Scheme using MIT Rule

Authors: Pankaj Swarnkar, Shailendra Jain, R.K Nema

Abstract:

Adaptive control involves modifying the control law used by the controller to cope with the fact that the parameters of the system being controlled change drastically due to change in environmental conditions or in system itself. This technique is based on the fundamental characteristic of adaptation of living organism. The adaptive control process is one that continuously and automatically measures the dynamic behavior of plant, compares it with the desired output and uses the difference to vary adjustable system parameters or to generate an actuating signal in such a way so that optimal performance can be maintained regardless of system changes. This paper deals with application of model reference adaptive control scheme in first order system. The rule which is used for this application is MIT rule. This paper also shows the effect of adaptation gain on the system performance. Simulation is done in MATLAB and results are discussed in detail.

Keywords: Adaptive control system, Adaptation gain, MIT rule, Model reference adaptive control.

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1553 The Impact of Environmental Dynamism on Strategic Outsourcing Success

Authors: Mohamad Ghozali Hassan, Abdul Aziz Othman, Mohd Azril Ismail

Abstract:

Adapting quickly to environmental dynamism is essential for an organization to develop outsourcing strategic and management in order to sustain competitive advantage. This research used the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLSSEM) tool to investigate the factors of environmental dynamism impact on the strategic outsourcing success among electrical and electronic manufacturing industries in outsourcing management. Statistical results confirm that the inclusion of customer demand, technological change, and competition level as a new combination concept of environmental dynamism, has positive effects on outsourcing success. Additionally, this research demonstrates the acceptability of PLS-SEM as a statistical analysis to furnish a better understanding of environmental dynamism in outsourcing management in Malaysia. A practical finding contributes to academics and practitioners in the field of outsourcing management.

Keywords: Environmental Dynamism, Customer Demand, Technological Change, Competition Level, Outsourcing Success.

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1552 Root Growth of Morus alba as Affected by Size of Cuttings and Polythene Low Tunnel

Authors: Irfan Ahmad, Tahir Siddiqui, Rashid Ahmad Khan, Tahir Munir Butt

Abstract:

An effort to find out the smaller size of cuttings for propagation of Morus alba was made in experimental area Department of Forestry, Range Management and Wildlife, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan. Different size of cuttings i.e. 2", 4", 6" and 8" were planted in polythene tubes of 3.5"x7". The effort was also made to compare the performance of cuttings in open air and in polythene low tunnel. Root length, number of root branches, root diameter and root fresh and dry weight were found maximum in two inches cuttings while minimum in four inches cuttings. Root growth was found maximum in open air as compared to under polythene sheet.

Keywords: cutting sizes Morus alba, Open air and polythene sheet, root growth

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1551 A Remote Sensing Approach for Vulnerability and Environmental Change in Apodi Valley Region, Northeast Brazil

Authors: Mukesh Singh Boori, Venerando Eustáquio Amaro

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to improve our understanding of vulnerability and environmental change; it's causes basically show the intensity, its distribution and human-environment effect on the ecosystem in the Apodi Valley Region, This paper is identify, assess and classify vulnerability and environmental change in the Apodi valley region using a combined approach of landscape pattern and ecosystem sensitivity. Models were developed using the following five thematic layers: Geology, geomorphology, soil, vegetation and land use/cover, by means of a Geographical Information Systems (GIS)-based on hydro-geophysical parameters. In spite of the data problems and shortcomings, using ESRI-s ArcGIS 9.3 program, the vulnerability score, to classify, weight and combine a number of 15 separate land cover classes to create a single indicator provides a reliable measure of differences (6 classes) among regions and communities that are exposed to similar ranges of hazards. Indeed, the ongoing and active development of vulnerability concepts and methods have already produced some tools to help overcome common issues, such as acting in a context of high uncertainties, taking into account the dynamics and spatial scale of asocial-ecological system, or gathering viewpoints from different sciences to combine human and impact-based approaches. Based on this assessment, this paper proposes concrete perspectives and possibilities to benefit from existing commonalities in the construction and application of assessment tools.

Keywords: Vulnerability, Land use/cover, Ecosystem, Remotesensing, GIS.

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1550 Forecasting Direct Normal Irradiation at Djibouti Using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Ahmed Kayad Abdourazak, Abderafi Souad, Zejli Driss, Idriss Abdoulkader Ibrahim

Abstract:

In this paper Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to predict the solar irradiation in Djibouti for the first Time that is useful to the integration of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) and sites selections for new or future solar plants as part of solar energy development. An ANN algorithm was developed to establish a forward/reverse correspondence between the latitude, longitude, altitude and monthly solar irradiation. For this purpose the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) data of eight Djibouti sites were used as training and testing in a standard three layers network with the back propagation algorithm of Lavenber-Marquardt. Results have shown a very good agreement for the solar irradiation prediction in Djibouti and proves that the proposed approach can be well used as an efficient tool for prediction of solar irradiation by providing so helpful information concerning sites selection, design and planning of solar plants.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, solar irradiation, concentrated solar power, Lavenberg-Marquardt.

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1549 A New Technique for Solar Activity Forecasting Using Recurrent Elman Networks

Authors: Salvatore Marra, Francesco C. Morabito

Abstract:

In this paper we present an efficient approach for the prediction of two sunspot-related time series, namely the Yearly Sunspot Number and the IR5 Index, that are commonly used for monitoring solar activity. The method is based on exploiting partially recurrent Elman networks and it can be divided into three main steps: the first one consists in a “de-rectification" of the time series under study in order to obtain a new time series whose appearance, similar to a sum of sinusoids, can be modelled by our neural networks much better than the original dataset. After that, we normalize the derectified data so that they have zero mean and unity standard deviation and, finally, train an Elman network with only one input, a recurrent hidden layer and one output using a back-propagation algorithm with variable learning rate and momentum. The achieved results have shown the efficiency of this approach that, although very simple, can perform better than most of the existing solar activity forecasting methods.

Keywords: Elman neural networks, sunspot, solar activity, time series prediction.

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1548 Development of a Sliding-tearing Mode Fracture Mechanical Tool for Laminated Composite Materials

Authors: Andras Szekrenyes

Abstract:

This work presents the mixed-mode II/III prestressed split-cantilever beam specimen for the fracture testing of composite materials. In accordance with the concept of prestressed composite beams one of the two fracture modes is provided by the prestressed state of the specimen, and the other one is increased up to fracture initiation by using a testing machine. The novel beam-like specimen is able to provide any combination of the mode-II and mode-III energy release rates. A simple closed-form solution is developed using beam theory as a data reduction scheme and for the calculation of the energy release rates in the new configuration. The applicability and the limitations of the novel fracture mechanical test are demonstrated using unidirectional glass/polyester composite specimens. If only crack propagation onset is involved then the mixed-mode beam specimen can be used to obtain the fracture criterion of transparent composite materials in the GII - GIII plane in a relatively simple way.

Keywords: Composite, fracture mechanics, toughness testing, mixed-mode II/III fracture.

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1547 Consensus on Climate Change Adaptation among Government and Populace

Authors: Tsung-Hsien Yu, Ya-Hsuan Chou, Ming-Wei Chen, Chi-Ming Chen, Yi-Hsuan Li

Abstract:

Observations and long-term trends indicate that climate change impacts would be significant and affects Taiwan directly and severely. Taiwan engages not only in mitigation, but also in adaptation. However, there are cognitive gaps on adaptation between government and populace. Besides, a vision of zero-carbon and renewable energy 100% will be adopted in future. Therefore, the objectives of this article are to 1) hold a National Forum for knowing differences between the strategies of zero-carbon and renewable energy 100% and cognitions of general populace, and 2) plan a clear roadmap for the vision, strategy, and measures. In this forum, we set 5 group topics, 5 presumed themes, and issues mentioned review for concluding the critical issues. Finally, there are 4 strategies and 14 critical issues which correlate with the vision and strategy of government and the cognition of the general populace.

Keywords: Cognitive gap, world café, renewable energy, zero-carbon.

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