Search results for: Distribution system

Authors: Mohd Iz'aan Paiz Bin Zamri, Anis Salwa Mohd Khairuddin, Norrima Mokhtar, Rubiyah Yusof

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Effective statistical feature extraction and classification are important in image-based automatic inspection and analysis. An automatic wood species recognition system is designed to perform wood inspection at custom checkpoints to avoid mislabeling of timber which will results to loss of income to the timber industry. The system focuses on analyzing the statistical pores properties of the wood images. This paper proposed a fuzzy-based feature extractor which mimics the experts’ knowledge on wood texture to extract the properties of pores distribution from the wood surface texture. The proposed feature extractor consists of two steps namely pores extraction and fuzzy pores management. The total number of statistical features extracted from each wood image is 38 features. Then, a backpropagation neural network is used to classify the wood species based on the statistical features. A comprehensive set of experiments on a database composed of 5200 macroscopic images from 52 tropical wood species was used to evaluate the performance of the proposed feature extractor. The advantage of the proposed feature extraction technique is that it mimics the experts’ interpretation on wood texture which allows human involvement when analyzing the wood texture. Experimental results show the efficiency of the proposed method.

Keywords: Classification, fuzzy, inspection system, image analysis.

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Authors: Jia-Rong Yeh, Ai-Hsien Li, Jiann-Shing Shieh, Yen-An Su, Chi-Yu Yang

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In this paper, an automatic detecting algorithm for QRS complex detecting was applied for analyzing ECG recordings and five criteria for dangerous arrhythmia diagnosing are applied for a protocol type of automatic arrhythmia diagnosing system. The automatic detecting algorithm applied in this paper detected the distribution of QRS complexes in ECG recordings and related information, such as heart rate and RR interval. In this investigation, twenty sampled ECG recordings of patients with different pathologic conditions were collected for off-line analysis. A combinative application of four digital filters for bettering ECG signals and promoting detecting rate for QRS complex was proposed as pre-processing. Both of hardware filters and digital filters were applied to eliminate different types of noises mixed with ECG recordings. Then, an automatic detecting algorithm of QRS complex was applied for verifying the distribution of QRS complex. Finally, the quantitative clinic criteria for diagnosing arrhythmia were programmed in a practical application for automatic arrhythmia diagnosing as a post-processor. The results of diagnoses by automatic dangerous arrhythmia diagnosing were compared with the results of off-line diagnoses by experienced clinic physicians. The results of comparison showed the application of automatic dangerous arrhythmia diagnosis performed a matching rate of 95% compared with an experienced physician-s diagnoses.

Keywords: Signal processing, electrocardiography (ECG), QRS complex, arrhythmia.

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Authors: A. Dal Monte, M. Raciti Castelli, G. B. Bellato, L. Stevanato, E. Benini

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The wind resource in the Italian site of Lendinara (RO) is analyzed through a systematic anemometric campaign performed on the top of the bell tower, at an altitude of over 100 m above the ground. Both the average wind speed and the Weibull distribution are computed. The resulting average wind velocity is in accordance with the numerical predictions of the Italian Wind Atlas, confirming the accuracy of the extrapolation of wind data adopted for the evaluation of wind potential at higher altitudes with respect to the commonly placed measurement stations.

Keywords: Anemometric campaign, wind resource, Weibull distribution, wind atlas

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Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: Wind power, Uncertainty, Stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: Hiroshi Yamakawa, Michiko Yoshida, Motohiro Tsuchiya

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The recent development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) enables new ways of "democratic" decision-making such as a page-ranking system, which estimates the importance of a web page based on indirect trust on that page shared by diverse group of unorganized individuals. These kinds of "democracy" have not been acclaimed yet in the world of real politics. On the other hand, a large amount of data about personal relations including trust, norms of reciprocity, and networks of civic engagement has been accumulated in a computer-readable form by computer systems (e.g., social networking systems). We can use these relations as a new type of social capital to construct a new democratic decision-making system based on a delegation network. In this paper, we propose an effective decision-making support system, which is based on empowering someone's vote whom you trust. For this purpose, we propose two new techniques: the first is for estimating entire vote distribution from a small number of votes, and the second is for estimating active voter choice to promote voting using a delegation network. We show that these techniques could increase the voting ratio and credibility of the whole decision by agent-based simulations.

Keywords: Delegation, network centrality, social network, voting ratio.

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Authors: Hossein Taherian Far, Ali Bazaee

Abstract:

Achieving continuous sustained economic growth and following economic development can be the target for all countries which are looking for it. In this regard, distribution industry plays an important role in growth and development of any nation. So, estimating the efficiency and productivity of the so called industry and identifying factors influencing it, is very necessary. The objective of the present study is to measure the efficiency and productivity of seven branches of Nina Distribution Company using window data envelopment analysis and Malmquist productivity index from spring 2013 to summer 2015. In this study, using criteria of fixed assets, payroll personnel, operating costs and duration of collection of receivables were selected as inputs and people and net sales, gross profit and percentage of coverage to customers were selected as outputs. Then, the process of performance window data envelopment analysis was driven and process efficiency has been measured using Malmquist index. The results indicate that the average technical efficiency of window Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model and fluctuating trend is sustainable. But the average management efficiency in window DEA model is related with negative growth (decline) of about 13%. The mean scale efficiency in all windows, except in the second one which is faced with 8%, shows growth of 18% compared to the first window. On the other hand, the mean change in total factor productivity in all branches of the industry shows average negative growth (decrease) of 12% which are the result of a negative change in technology.

Keywords: Nina Distribution Company branches, window data envelopment analysis, Malmquist productivity index.

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Authors: Mohsen Torabi, Nader Karimi, Kaili Zhang

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This work aims to provide a comprehensive study on the heat transfer and entropy generation rates of a horizontal channel partially filled with a porous medium which experiences internal heat generation or consumption due to exothermic or endothermic chemical reaction. The focus has been given to the local thermal non-equilibrium (LTNE) model. The LTNE approach helps us to deliver more accurate data regarding temperature distribution within the system and accordingly to provide more accurate Nusselt number and entropy generation rates. Darcy-Brinkman model is used for the momentum equations, and constant heat flux is assumed for boundary conditions for both upper and lower surfaces. Analytical solutions have been provided for both velocity and temperature fields. By incorporating the investigated velocity and temperature formulas into the provided fundamental equations for the entropy generation, both local and total entropy generation rates are plotted for a number of cases. Bifurcation phenomena regarding temperature distribution and interface heat flux ratio are observed. It has been found that the exothermicity or endothermicity characteristic of the channel does have a considerable impact on the temperature fields and entropy generation rates.

Keywords: Entropy generation, exothermicity, endothermicity, forced convection, local thermal non-equilibrium, analytical modeling.

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Authors: Ayesha S. Rahman, Khaled Haddad, Ataur Rahman

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At-site flood frequency analysis is used to estimate flood quantiles when at-site record length is reasonably long. In Australia, FLIKE software has been introduced for at-site flood frequency analysis. The advantage of FLIKE is that, for a given application, the user can compare a number of most commonly adopted probability distributions and parameter estimation methods relatively quickly using a windows interface. The new version of FLIKE has been incorporated with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test which can identify multiple numbers of potentially influential low flows. This paper presents a case study considering six catchments in eastern Australia which compares two outlier identification tests (original Grubbs and Beck test and multiple Grubbs and Beck test) and two commonly applied probability distributions (Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson type 3 (LP3)) using FLIKE software. It has been found that the multiple Grubbs and Beck test when used with LP3 distribution provides more accurate flood quantile estimates than when LP3 distribution is used with the original Grubbs and Beck test. Between these two methods, the differences in flood quantile estimates have been found to be up to 61% for the six study catchments. It has also been found that GEV distribution (with L moments) and LP3 distribution with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test provide quite similar results in most of the cases; however, a difference up to 38% has been noted for flood quantiles for annual exceedance probability (AEP) of 1 in 100 for one catchment. This finding needs to be confirmed with a greater number of stations across other Australian states.

Keywords: Floods, FLIKE, probability distributions, flood frequency, outlier.

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Authors: M. Rozanek, K. Roubik

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A mathematical model of the respiratory system is introduced in this study. Geometrical dimensions of the respiratory system were used to compute the acoustic properties of the respiratory system using the electro-acoustic analogy. The effect of the geometrical proportions of the respiratory system is observed in the paper.

Keywords: Electro-acoustic analogy, total lung impedance, mechanical parameters, respiratory system.

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Authors: N. A. Salim, M. M. Othman, I. Musirin, M. S. Serwan

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Protection system hidden failures have been identified as one of the main causes of system cascading collapse resulting to power system instability. In this paper, a systematic approach is presented in order to identify the probability of a system cascading collapse by taking into consideration the effect of protection system hidden failure. This includes the accurate calculation of the probability of hidden failure as it will provide significant impinge on the findings of the probability of system cascading collapse. The probability of a system cascading collapse is then used to identify the initial tripping of sensitive transmission lines which will contribute to a critical system cascading collapse. Based on the results obtained from this study, it is important to decide on the accurate value of the hidden failure probability as it will affect the probability of a system cascading collapse.

Keywords: Critical system cascading collapse, hidden failure, probability of cascading collapse, sensitive transmission lines.

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Authors: Z.A. Rasid, R. Zahari, A. Ayob, D.L. Majid, A.S.M. Rafie

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Aerospace vehicles are subjected to non-uniform thermal loading that may cause thermal buckling. A study was conducted on the thermal post-buckling of shape memory alloy composite plates subjected to the non-uniform tent-like temperature field. The shape memory alloy wires were embedded within the laminated composite plates to add recovery stress to the plates. The non-linear finite element model that considered the recovery stress of the shape memory alloy and temperature dependent properties of the shape memory alloy and composite matrix along with its source codes were developed. It was found that the post-buckling paths of the shape memory alloy composite plates subjected to various tentlike temperature fields were stable within the studied temperature range. The addition of shape memory alloy wires to the composite plates was found to significantly improve the post-buckling behavior of laminated composite plates under non-uniform temperature distribution.

Keywords: Post-buckling, shape memory alloy, temperaturedependent property, tent-like temperature distribution

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Authors: Ki-Jin Kim, Sanghoon Park, K. H. Ahn

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A way of generating millimeter wave I/Q signal using inductive resonator matched poly-phase filter is suggested. Normally the poly-phase filter generates quite accurate I/Q phase and magnitude but the loss of the filter is considerable due to series connection of passive RC components. This loss term directly increases system noise figure when the poly-phase filter is used in RF Front-end. The proposed matching method eliminates above mentioned loss and in addition provides gain on the passive filter. The working algorithm is illustrated by mathematical analysis. The generated I/Q signal is used in implementing millimeter wave phase shifter for the 60 GHz communication system to verify its effectiveness. The circuit is fabricated in 90 nm TSMC RF CMOS process under 1.2 V supply voltage. The measurement results showed that the suggested method improved gain by 6.5 dB and noise by 2.3 dB. The summary of the proposed I/Q generation is compared with previous works.

Keywords: Millimeter Wave Circuits, Local Distribution, I/Q Generator.

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Authors: Hyeyoung Cho, Sungho Kim, Sik Lee

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I/O workload is a critical and important factor to analyze I/O pattern and to maximize file system performance. However to measure I/O workload on running distributed parallel file system is non-trivial due to collection overhead and large volume of data. In this paper, we measured and analyzed file system activities on two large-scale cluster systems which had TFlops level high performance computation resources. By comparing file system activities of 2009 with those of 2006, we analyzed the change of I/O workloads by the development of system performance and high-speed network technology.

Keywords: I/O workload, Lustre, GPFS, Cluster File System

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Authors: Mohammed Sabri Ali Akresh

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The modern technologies and developments in computer and Global Positioning System (GPS) as well as Geographic Information System (GIS) and total station TS. This paper presents a new proposal for coordinates system by a harmonic equations “United projections”, which have five projections (Mercator, Lambert, Russell, Lagrange, and compound of projection) in one zone coordinate system width 14 degrees, also it has one degree for overlap between zones, as well as two standards parallels for zone from 10 S to 45 S. Also this paper presents two cases; first case is to compare distances between a new coordinate system and UTM, second case creating local coordinate system for the city of Sydney to measure the distances directly from rectangular coordinates using projection of Mercator, Lambert and UTM.

Keywords: Harmonic equations, coordinate system, projections, algorithms and parallels.

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Authors: Hai-bo Lu, Wei-qiang Liu

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A numerical study on the influence of forward-facing cavity length upon forward-facing cavity and opposing jet combined thermal protection system (TPS) cooling efficiency under hypersonic flow is conducted, by means of which the flow field parameters, heat flux distribution along the outer body surface are obtained. The numerical simulation results are validated by experiments and the cooling effect of the combined TPS with different cavity length is analyzed. The numerical results show that the combined configuration dose well in cooling the nose of the hypersonic vehicle. The deeper the cavity is, the weaker the heat flux is. The recirculation region plays a key role for the reduction of the aerodynamic heating.

Keywords: Thermal protection, hypersonic vehicle, aerodynamic heating, forward-facing cavity, opposing jet

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Authors: B. Marungsri, W. Onchantuek, A. Oonsivilai

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This paper presents the simulation the results of electric field and potential distributions along surface of silicone rubber polymer insulators. Near the same leakage distance subjected to 15 kV in 50 cycle salt fog ageing test, alternate sheds silicone rubber polymer insulator showed better contamination performance than straight sheds silicone rubber polymer insulator. Severe surface ageing was observed on the straight sheds insulator. The objective of this work is to elucidate that electric field distribution along straight sheds insulator higher than alternate shed insulator in salt fog ageing test. Finite element method (FEM) is adopted for this work. The simulation results confirmed the experimental data, as well.

Keywords: Electric field distribution, potential distribution, silicone rubber polymer insulator, finite element method.

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Authors: M. Shakir Saat, M. Noh Ahmad, Dr, Amat Amir

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A cart-ball system is a challenging system from the control engineering point of view. This is due to the nonlinearities, multivariable, and non-minimum phase behavior present in this system. This paper is concerned with the problem of modeling and control of such system. The objective of control strategy is to place the cart at a desired position while balancing the ball on the top of the arc-shaped track fixed on the cart. A State-Feedback Controller (SFC) with a pole-placement method will be designed in order to control the system. At first, the mathematical model of a cart-ball system in the state-space form is developed. Then, the linearization of a model will be established in order to design a SFC. The integral control strategy will be performed as to control the cart position of a system. Simulation work is then performed using MATLAB/SIMULINK software in order to study the performance of SFC when applied to the system.

Keywords: Cart-Ball System, Integral Control, Pole-PlacementMethod, State-Feedback Controller.

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Authors: Vinicius R. Domingues, Luan C. S. M. Ozelim

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The statistical study has become indispensable for various fields of knowledge. Not any different, in Geotechnics the study of probabilistic and statistical methods has gained power considering its use in characterizing the uncertainties inherent in soil properties. One of the situations where engineers are constantly faced is the definition of a probability distribution that represents significantly the sampled data. To be able to discard bad distributions, goodness-of-fit tests are necessary. In this paper, three non-parametric goodness-of-fit tests are applied to a data set computationally generated to test the goodness-of-fit of them to a series of known distributions. It is shown that the use of normal distribution does not always provide satisfactory results regarding physical and behavioral representation of the modeled parameters.

Keywords: Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, Cramer-Von-Mises, Nonparametric adherence tests.

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Authors: Zine-Eddine Bouras, Abdelouaheb Talai

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The need to merge software artifacts seems inherent to modern software development. Distribution of development over several teams and breaking tasks into smaller, more manageable pieces are an effective means to deal with the kind of complexity. In each case, the separately developed artifacts need to be assembled as efficiently as possible into a consistent whole in which the parts still function as described. In addition, earlier changes are introduced into the life cycle and easier is their management by designers. Interaction-based specifications such as UML sequence diagrams have been found effective in this regard. As a result, sequence diagrams can be used not only for capturing system behaviors but also for merging changes in order to create a new version. The objective of this paper is to suggest a new approach to deal with the problem of software merging at the level of sequence diagrams by using the concept of dependence analysis that captures, formally, all mapping, and differences between elements of sequence diagrams and serves as a key concept to create a new version of sequence diagram.

Keywords: System behaviors, sequence diagram merging, dependence analysis, sequence diagram slicing.

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Authors: Husna Hasan, Norfatin Salam, Mohd Bakri Adam

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Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modelled by fitting the monthly maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Two models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. Results show that half of the stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.

Keywords: Extreme temperature, extreme value, return level.

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Authors: J. Cecrdle

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This paper deals with the whirl flutter of the turboprop aircraft structures. It is focused on the influence of the blade lift span-wise distribution on the whirl flutter stability. Firstly it gives the overall theoretical background of the whirl flutter phenomenon. After that the propeller blade forces solution and the options of the blade lift modeling are described. The problem is demonstrated on the example of a twin turboprop aircraft structure. There are evaluated the influences with respect to the propeller aerodynamic derivatives and finally the influences to the whirl flutter speed and the whirl flutter margin respectively.

Keywords: Aeroelasticity, flutter, propeller blade force, whirl flutter.

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Authors: T. J. Jamaleddine

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Purge columns or degasser vessels are widely used in the polyolefin process for removing trapped hydrocarbons and in-excess catalyst residues from the polymer particles. A uniform distribution of purged gases coupled with a plug-flow characteristic inside the column system is desirable to obtain optimum desorption characteristics of trapped hydrocarbon and catalyst residues. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) approach is a promising tool for design optimization of these vessels. The success of this approach is profoundly dependent on the solution strategy and the choice of geometrical layout at the vessel outlet. Filling the column with solids and initially solving for the solids flow minimized numerical diffusion substantially. Adopting a cylindrical configuration at the vessel outlet resulted in less numerical instability and resembled the hydrodynamics flow of solids in the hopper segment reasonably well.

Keywords: CFD, gas-solids flow, gas purging, species transport, purge column, degasser vessel.

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Authors: Narcis C. Ostahie, Tudor Sajin

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In this paper a numerical simulation of electric and hydrodynamic fields distribution in an electrofilter for dielectric liquids cell is made. The simulation is made with the purpose to determine the trajectory of particles that moves under the action of external force in an electric and hydrodynamic field created inside of an electrofilter for dielectric liquids. Particle trajectory is analyzed for a dielectric liquid-solid particles suspension.

Keywords: Dielectric liquids, electrohydrodynamics, energy, high voltage, particles

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Authors: M. Mazhar Manzoor, Nasar.A, A. Sattar

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In the open space of decision support system the mental impression of a manager-s decision has been the subject of large importance than the ordinary famous one, when helped by decision support system. Much of this study is an attempt to realize the relation of decision support system usage and decision outcomes that governs the system. For example, several researchers have proposed so many different models to analyze the linkage between decision support system processes and results of decision making. This study draws the important relation of manager-s mental approach with the use of decision support system. The findings of this paper are theoretical attempts to provide Decision Support System (DSS) in a way to exhibit and promote the learning in semi structured area. The proposed model shows the points of one-s learning improvements and maintains a theoretical approach in order to explore the DSS contribution in enhancing the decision forming and governing the system.

Keywords: Decision Support System , Learning Organization,

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Authors: Cai Guoqiang, Jia Limin, Zhou Liming, Liang yu, Li xi

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This paper analysis the integrated use of safety monitoring with the domestic and international latest research on rail safety protection system, and focus on the implementation of an organic whole system, with the monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, predictive control and emergency rescue system. The system framework, contents and system structure of Security system is proposed completely. It-s pointed out that the Security system is a negative feedback system composed of by safety monitoring and warning system, risk assessment and emergency rescue system. Safety monitoring and warning system focus on the monitoring target monitoring, early warning, tracking, integration of decision-making, for objective and subjective risks factors. Risk assessment system analysis the occurrence of a major Security risk mechanism, determines the standard of the future short, medium and long term safety conditions, and give prop for development of safety indicators, accident analysis and safety standards. Emergency rescue system is with the goal of rapid and effective rescue work for accident, to minimize casualties and property losses.

Keywords: rail safety protection, monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, emergency rescue.

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Authors: Ahmed ElShafee, Karim Alaa Hamed

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This paper presents a design and prototype implementation of new home automation system that uses WiFi technology as a network infrastructure connecting its parts. The proposed system consists of two main components; the first part is the server (web server), which presents system core that manages, controls, and monitors users- home. Users and system administrator can locally (LAN) or remotely (internet) manage and control system code. Second part is hardware interface module, which provides appropriate interface to sensors and actuator of home automation system. Unlike most of available home automation system in the market the proposed system is scalable that one server can manage many hardware interface modules as long as it exists on WiFi network coverage. System supports a wide range of home automation devices like power management components, and security components. The proposed system is better from the scalability and flexibility point of view than the commercially available home automation systems.

Keywords: Home automation, Wireless LAN, WiFi, MicroControllers

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Authors: Ayesha Batool, Saghir Ahmad, Abid Hussain Ch.

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The art of the examination is probably the most difficult one in the whole range of educational practices. Semester system is the system of examination, which is set with an institute by its own teachers. Annual system is the system of examination, which is constructed and administrated by some agency outside the institute, it enables the teacher to estimate the effectiveness of the instruction, and students to estimate the progress made by them. On the other hand, semester system of examinations requires following the curriculum strictly and methods of teaching are to be employed by the choice of teachers. The main purpose of the study was to investigate university students’ perceptions regarding the effectiveness of semester system and annual system. The study was quantitative in nature. The sample consisted of 200 students. A five point Likert type scale was used to collect the data. The statistical measures like frequencies, mean, standard deviation, and One Way ANOVA test were applied to analyze the data. The major findings of the study indicated that in semester system students do not spend much time in political activities and develop their study habits. It also revealed that annual system of examination does not satisfy the educational aspirations of the students.

Keywords: Effectiveness, semester system, annual system.

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Authors: C. R. Danielle, S. Erik, T. Patrick, M. Hugh

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In the last decade there has been an increase in demand for fine grinding due to the depletion of coarse-grained orebodies and an increase of processing fine disseminated minerals and complex orebodies. These ores have provided new challenges in concentrator design because fine and ultra-fine grinding is required to achieve acceptable recovery rates. Therefore, the correct design of a grinding circuit is important for minimizing unit costs and increasing product quality. The use of ball mills for grinding in fine size ranges is inefficient and, therefore, vertical stirred grinding mills are becoming increasingly popular in the mineral processing industry due to its already known high energy efficiency. This work presents a hypothesis of a methodology to predict the product size distribution of a vertical stirred mill using a Bond ball mill. The Population Balance Model (PBM) was used to empirically analyze the performance of a vertical mill and a Bond ball mill. The breakage parameters obtained for both grinding mills are compared to determine the possibility of predicting the product size distribution of a vertical mill based on the results obtained from the Bond ball mill. The biggest advantage of this methodology is that most of the minerals processing laboratories already have a Bond ball mill to perform the tests suggested in this study. Preliminary results show the possibility of predicting the performance of a laboratory vertical stirred mill using a Bond ball mill.

Keywords: Bond ball mill, population balance model, product size distribution, vertical stirred mill.

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Authors: Sherine Beshara, Khaled S. El-Kilany, Noha M. Galal

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Supply chain management has become more challenging with the emerging trend of globalization and sustainability. Lately, research related to perishable products supply chains, in particular agricultural food products, has emerged. This is attributed to the additional complexity of managing this type of supply chains with the recently increased concern of public health, food quality, food safety, demand and price variability, and the limited lifetime of these products. Inventory management for agrifood supply chains is of vital importance due to the product perishability and customers- strive for quality. This paper concentrates on developing a simulation model of a real life case study of a two echelon production-distribution system for agri-food products. The objective is to improve a set of performance measures by developing a simulation model that helps in evaluating and analysing the performance of these supply chains. Simulation results showed that it can help in improving overall system performance.

Keywords: Agri-food supply chains, inventory model, modelling and Simulation, supply chain.

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Authors: E. L. Suarez, D. E. Meeroff, Y. Yong

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Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: Community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding.

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