Search results for: Technological forecasting. S curves

Authors: Amro Issam Hamed Attia Ramadan, Marco Zappatore, Pasquale Balena, Antonella Longo

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Considering the energy crisis that is hitting Europe, it becomes increasingly necessary to change energy policies to depend less on fossil fuels and replace them with energy from renewable sources. This has triggered the urge to use clean energy, not only to satisfy energy needs and fulfill the required consumption, but also to decrease the danger of climatic changes due to harmful emissions. Many countries have already started creating energy communities based on renewable energy sources. The first step to understanding energy needs in any place is to perfectly know the consumption. In this work, we aim to estimate electricity consumption for a municipality that makes up part of a rural area located in southern Italy using forecast models that allow for the estimation of electricity consumption for the next 10 years, and we then apply the same model to the province where the municipality is located and estimate the future consumption for the same period to examine whether it is possible to start from the municipality level to reach the province level when creating energy communities.

Keywords: ARIMA, electricity consumption, forecasting models, time series.

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Authors: M. Benachour, M. Benguediab, A. Hadjoui, N. Benachour

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In this paper fatigue crack growth behavior of aeronautical aluminum alloy 2024 T351 was studied. Effects of various loading and geometrical parameters are studied such as stress ratio, amplitude loading, etc. The fatigue crack growth with constant amplitude is studied using the AFGROW code when NASGRO model is used. The effect of the stress ratio is highlighted, where one notices a shift of the curves of crack growth. The comparative study between two orientations L-T and T-L on fatigue behavior are presented and shows the variation on the fatigue life. L-T orientation presents a good fatigue crack growth resistance. Effects of crack closure are shown in Paris domain and that no crack closure phenomenons are present at high stress intensity factor.

Keywords: Fatigue crack, orientation effect, crack closure, aluminum alloy.

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Authors: Volkan Isbuga, Joman M. Mahmood, Ali Firat Cabalar

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This study presents the site response analysis of mica-sand mixtures available in certain parts of the world including Izmir, a highly populated city and located in a seismically active region in western part of Turkey. We performed site response analyses by employing SHAKE, an equivalent linear approach, for the micaceous soil deposits consisting of layers with different amount of mica contents and thicknesses. Dynamic behavior of micaceous sands such as shear modulus reduction and damping ratio curves are input for the ground response analyses. Micaceous sands exhibit a unique dynamic response under a scenario earthquake with a magnitude of Mw=6. Results showed that higher amount of mica caused higher spectral accelerations.

Keywords: Micaceous sands, site response, equivalent linear approach, SHAKE.

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Authors: Gopu Sreenivasulu, Bimlesh Kumar, Achanta Ramakrishna Rao

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To define or predict incipient motion in an alluvial channel, most of the investigators use a standard or modified form of Shields- diagram. Shields- diagram does give a process to determine the incipient motion parameters but an iterative one. To design properly (without iteration), one should have another equation for resistance. Absence of a universal resistance equation also magnifies the difficulties in defining the model. Neural network technique, which is particularly useful in modeling a complex processes, is presented as a tool complimentary to modeling incipient motion. Present work develops a neural network model employing the RBF network to predict the average velocity u and water depth y based on the experimental data on incipient condition. Based on the model, design curves have been presented for the field application.

Keywords: Incipient motion, Prediction error, Radial-Basisfunction, Sediment transport, Shields' diagram.

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Authors: Volker Koch

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This paper deals with the education of purchasing professionals in Austria. In this education, equivalent and measurable criteria are collected in order to create a comparison. The comparison shows the problem. To make the aforementioned comparison possible, methodologies such as KODE-Competence Atlas or presentations in a matrix form are used. The result shows the content taught and whether there are any similarities or interesting differences in the current Austrian purchasers’ formations. Purchasing professionals learning competencies are also illustrated in the study result.

Keywords: Competencies, education, purchasing professional, technological-oriented.

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Authors: M. R. Dolatian, A. Jalilian

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The behavior of three phase five leg transformer under voltage sag is studied in this paper. This paper proposes a simple, practical model of a three phase-five leg, saturated transformer with accurate performance. Transformer saturation is produced when the voltage sag is recovered and it causes inrush current in transformer. Effects of voltage sag depth, duration and initial point on wave have been analyzed in this paper. Initial point on wave can produce maximum inrush current in five leg transformers while comparing with three leg transformers. The magnetic circuit symmetry of five leg transformer produces the more symmetrical shape of inrush current curves versus initial point on wave and sag duration than three leg transformer. The simulations show that current peak has a periodical dependence on sag duration and linear dependence on sag depth. Inrush current that is produced in three phase five leg transformer is higher than three phase three leg transformer.

Keywords: Inrush current, three phase five leg transformer, saturation, voltage sag.

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Authors: Siddhant Sahu, P. James Daniel Paul

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Technical analysis comprised by various technical indicators is a holistic way of representing price movement of stocks in the market. Various forms of indicators have evolved from the primitive ones in the past decades. There have been many attempts to introduce volume as a major determinant to determine strong patterns in market forecasting. The law of demand defines the relationship between the volume and price. Most of the traders are familiar with the volume game. Including the time dimension to the law of demand provides a different visualization to the theory. While attempting the same, it was found that there are different thresholds in the market for different companies. These thresholds have a significant influence on the price. This article is an attempt in determining the thresholds for companies using the three dimensional graphs for optimizing the portfolios. It also emphasizes on the magnitude of importance of volumes as a key factor for determining of predicting strong price movements, bullish and bearish markets. It uses a comprehensive data set of major companies which form a major chunk of the Indian automotive sector and are thus used as an illustration.

Keywords: Technical Analysis, Expert System, Law of demand, Stocks, Portfolio Analysis, Indian Automotive Sector.

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Authors: Wen W. Zhang, Qian Chen, Bei B. Zhou, Wei J. He

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Over the past years, the EMCCD has had a profound influence on photon starved imaging applications relying on its unique multiplication register based on the impact ionization effect in the silicon. High signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) means high image quality. Thus, SNR improvement is important for the EMCCD. This work analyzes the SNR performance of an EMCCD with gain off and on. In each mode, simplified SNR models are established for different integration times. The SNR curves are divided into readout noise (or CIC) region and shot noise region by integration time. Theoretical SNR values comparing long frame integration and frame adding in each region are presented and discussed to figure out which method is more effective. In order to further improve the SNR performance, pixel binning is introduced into the EMCCD. The results show that pixel binning does obviously improve the SNR performance, but at the expensive of the spatial resolution.

Keywords: EMCCD, SNR improvement, pixel binning

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Authors: Adel Aloraini

Abstract:

Financial forecasting using machine learning techniques has received great efforts in the last decide . In this ongoing work, we show how machine learning of graphical models will be able to infer a visualized causal interactions between different banks in the Saudi equities market. One important discovery from such learned causal graphs is how companies influence each other and to what extend. In this work, a set of graphical models named Gaussian graphical models with developed ensemble penalized feature selection methods that combine ; filtering method, wrapper method and a regularizer will be shown. A comparison between these different developed ensemble combinations will also be shown. The best ensemble method will be used to infer the causal relationships between banks in Saudi equities market.

Keywords: Causal interactions , banks, feature selection, regularizere,

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Authors: Seongykyoon Jeong, Sungki Lee, Jaeyun Kim, Seunghun Oh, Kiho Kwak

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The purpose of this article is to identify the practical strategies of R&D (research and development) entities for developing converging technology in organizational context. Based on the multi-assignation technological domains of patents derived from entire government-supported R&D projects for 13 years, we find that technology convergence is likely to occur when a university solely develops technology or when university develops technology as one of the collaborators. These results reflect the important role of universities in developing converging technology

Keywords: Interdisciplinary, Research and development strategy, Technology convergence

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Authors: Christian Castro Samaniego, Daniel Icaza Alvarez, Juan Portoviejo Brito

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For this research work, hybrid wind-photovoltaic (SHEF) systems were considered as renewable energy sources that take advantage of wind energy and solar radiation to transform into electrical energy. In the present research work, the feasibility of a wind-photovoltaic hybrid generation system was analyzed for the La Tranca tourist viewpoint of the Chordeleg canton in Ecuador. The research process consisted of the collection of data on solar radiation, temperature, wind speed among others by means of a meteorological station. Simulations were carried out in MATLAB/Simulink based on a mathematical model. In the end, we compared the theoretical radiation-power curves and the measurements made at the site.

Keywords: Hybrid system, wind turbine, modeling, simulation, validation, experimental data, panel, Ecuador.

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Authors: Betül Özgenç Kaya, Soner Kuslu, Sabri Çolak, Turan Çalban

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Ulexite (Na2O.2CaO.5B2O3.16H2O) is boron mineral that is found in large quantities in the Turkey and world. In this study, the dissolution of this mineral in the disodium hydrogen phosphate solutions has been studied. Temperature, concentration, stirring speed, solid liquid ratio and particle size were selected as parameters. The experimental results were successfully correlated by linear regression using Statistica program. Dissolution curves were evaluated shrinking core models for solid-fluid systems. It was observed that increase in the reaction temperature and decrease in the solid/liquid ratio causes an increase the dissolution rate of ulexite. The activation energy was found to be 63.4 kJ/mol. The leaching of ulexite was controlled by chemical reaction.

Keywords: Disodium hydrogen phosphate, Leaching kinetics, Ulexite.

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Authors: S.C. Chin, N. Shafiq, M.F. Nuruddin

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To date, theoretical studies concerning the Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) strengthening of RC beams with openings have been rather limited. In addition, various numerical analyses presented so far have effectively simulated the behaviour of solid beam strengthened by FRP material. In this paper, a two dimensional nonlinear finite element analysis is presented to validate against the laboratory test results of six RC beams. All beams had the same rectangular cross-section geometry and were loaded under four point bending. The crack pattern results of the finite element model show good agreement with the crack pattern of the experimental beams. The load midspan deflection curves of the finite element models exhibited a stiffer result compared to the experimental beams. The possible reason may be due to the perfect bond assumption used between the concrete and steel reinforcement.

Keywords: CFRP, large opening, RC beam, strengthening

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Authors: M. B. Shuai, S. Xiao, Q. S. Li, M. F. Chu, X. F. Yang

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Ambient hydrolysis products in moist air and hydrolysis kinetics in argon with humidity of RH1.5% for polycrystalline LiH powders and sintered bulks were investigated by X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy and gravimetry. The results showed that the hydrolysis products made up a layered structure of LiOH•H2O/LiOH/Li2O from surface of the sample to inside. In low humid argon atmosphere, the primary hydrolysis product was Li2O rather than LiOH. The hydrolysis kinetic curves of LiH bulks present a paralinear shape, which could be explained by the “Layer Diffusion Control" model. While a three-stage hydrolysis kinetic profile was observed for LiH powders under the same experimental conditions. The first two sections were similar to that of the bulk samples, and the third section also presents a linear reaction kinetics but with a smaller reaction rate compared to the second section because of a larger exothermic effect for the hydrolysis reaction of LiH powder.

Keywords: Hydrolysis, lithium compound, polycrystallinelithium hydride

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Authors: Viet Dzung Nguyen, Duc Thuan Nguyen, Tien Dzung Nguyen, Van Thanh Pham

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Mammography is the most effective procedure for an early diagnosis of the breast cancer. Nowadays, people are trying to find a way or method to support as much as possible to the radiologists in diagnosis process. The most popular way is now being developed is using Computer-Aided Detection (CAD) system to process the digital mammograms and prompt the suspicious region to radiologist. In this paper, an automated CAD system for detection and classification of massive lesions in mammographic images is presented. The system consists of three processing steps: Regions-Of- Interest detection, feature extraction and classification. Our CAD system was evaluated on Mini-MIAS database consisting 322 digitalized mammograms. The CAD system-s performance is evaluated using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and Freeresponse ROC (FROC) curves. The archived results are 3.47 false positives per image (FPpI) and sensitivity of 85%.

Keywords: classification, computer-aided detection, featureextraction, mass detection.

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Authors: Fernando Miguel Campos, Fernando Jesus Aguiar, Pedro Campos

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A large amount of software products offer a wide range and number of features. This is called featuritis or creeping featurism and tends to rise with each release of the product. Feautiris often adds unnecessary complexity to software, leading to longer learning curves and overall confusing the users and degrading their experience. We take a look to a new design approach tendency that has been coming up, the so-called “What You Get is What You Need” concept that argues that products should be very focused, simple and with minimalistic interfaces in order to help users conduct their tasks in distraction-free ambiences. This isn’t as simple to implement as it might sound and the developers need to cut down features. Our contribution illustrates and evaluates this design method through a novel distraction-free diagramming tool named Delineato Pro for Mac OS X in which the user is confronted with an empty canvas when launching the software and where tools only show up when really needed.

Keywords: Diagramming, HCI, usability, user interface.

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Authors: Eduardo C. Guardia, Jose W. M. Lima, Afonso H. M. Santos

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This paper presents a nonparametric method to obtain the hazard rate “Bathtub curve” for power system components. The model is a mixture of the three known phases of a component life, the decreasing failure rate (DFR), the constant failure rate (CFR) and the increasing failure rate (IFR) represented by three parametric Weibull models. The parameters are obtained from a simultaneous fitting process of the model to the Kernel nonparametric hazard rate curve. From the Weibull parameters and failure rate curves the useful lifetime and the characteristic lifetime were defined. To demonstrate the model the historic time-to-failure of distribution transformers were used as an example. The resulted “Bathtub curve” shows the failure rate for the equipment lifetime which can be applied in economic and replacement decision models.

Keywords: Bathtub curve, failure analysis, lifetime estimation, parameter estimation, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: Inta Volodko, Valentina Koliskina

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Linear stability of wake-shear layers in two-phase shallow flows is analyzed in the present paper. Stability analysis is based on two-dimensional shallow water equations. It is assumed that the fluid contains uniformly distributed solid particles. No dynamic interaction between the carrier fluid and particles is expected in the initial moment. Linear stability curves are obtained for different values of the particle loading parameter, the velocity ratio and the velocity deficit. It is shown that the increase in the velocity ratio destabilizes the flow. The particle loading parameter has a stabilizing effect on the flow. The role of the velocity deficit is also destabilizing: the increase of the velocity deficit leads to less stable flow.

Keywords: Linear stability, Shallow flows, Wake-shear flows.

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Authors: Y. Laaroussi, Z. Guennoun, A. Amar

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Modeling and forecasting dynamics of rainfall occurrences constitute one of the major topics, which have been largely treated by statisticians, hydrologists, climatologists and many other groups of scientists. In the same issue, we propose, in the present paper, a new hybrid method, which combines Extreme Values and fractal theories. We illustrate the use of our methodology for transformed Emberger Index series, constructed basing on data recorded in Oujda (Morocco). The index is treated at first by Peaks Over Threshold (POT) approach, to identify excess observations over an optimal threshold u. In the second step, we consider the resulting excess as a fractal object included in one dimensional space of time. We identify fractal dimension by the box counting. We discuss the prospect descriptions of rainfall data sets under Generalized Pareto Distribution, assured by Extreme Values Theory (EVT). We show that, despite of the appropriateness of return periods given by POT approach, the introduction of fractal dimension provides accurate interpretation results, which can ameliorate apprehension of rainfall occurrences.

Keywords: Extreme values theory, Fractals dimensions, Peaks Over Threshold, Rainfall occurrences.

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Authors: A. Satour, F. Boubenider, R. Halimi, A. Badidibouda

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Sandwich plates are finding an increasing range of application in the aircraft industry. The inspection of honeycomb composite structure by conventional ultrasonic technique is complex and very time consuming. The present study demonstrates a technique using guided Lamb waves at low frequencies to predict de-bond defects in aluminum skin-honeycomb core sandwich structure used in aeronautics. The numerical method was investigated for drawing the dispersion and displacement curves of ultrasonic Lamb wave propagated in Aluminum plate. An experimental study was carried out to check the theoretical prediction. The detection of unsticking between the skin and the core was tested by the two first modes for a low frequency. It was found that A0 mode is more sensitive to delamination defect compared to S0 mode.

Keywords: Damage detection, delamination, guided waves, Sandwich structure.

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Authors: Emine Teke, Soner Kuşlu, Sabri Çolak, Turan Çalban

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The aim of the present study was to investigate the dissolution kinetics of ulexite in sodium dihydrogen phosphate in a mechanical agitation system and also to declare an alternative reactant to produce the boric acid. Reaction temperature, concentration of sodium dihydrogen phosphate, stirring speed, solid-liquid ratio, and ulexite particle size were selected as parameters. The experimental results were successfully correlated by using linear regression and a statistical program. Dissolution curves were evaluated in order to test the shrinking core models for solid-fluid systems. It was observed that increase in the reaction temperature and decrease in the solid/liquid ratio causes an increase in the dissolution rate of ulexite. The activation energy was found to be 36.4 kJ/mol. The leaching of ulexite was controlled by diffusion through the ash (or product) layer.

Keywords: Sodium dihydrogen phosphate, leaching kinetics, ulexite.

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Authors: Allagui Hatem, Ghodbane Fathi

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The primary objective of this paper is to study the thermal effects of the electric arc on the breaker apparatus contacts for forecasting and improving the contact durability. We will propose a model which takes account of the main influence factors on the erosion contacts. This phenomenon is very complicated because the amount of ejected metal is not necessarily constituted by the whole melted metal bath but this depends on the balance of forces on the contact surface. Consequently, to calculate the metal ejection coefficient, we propose a method which consists in comparing the experimental results with the calculated ones. The proposed model estimates the mass lost by vaporization, by droplets ejection and by the extraction mechanism of liquid or solid metal. In the one-dimensional geometry, to calculate of the contact heating, we used Green’s function which expresses the point source and allows the transition to the surface source. However, for the two- dimensional model we used explicit and implicit numerical methods. The results are similar to those found by Wilson’s experiments.

Keywords: Electric arc, thermal effect, erosion, contact, durability.

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Authors: Arun Goel, D. V. S. Verma, Sanjeev Sangwan

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Present study was aimed to develop a discharge measuring device for irrigation and laboratory channels. Experiments were conducted on sharp edged constricted flow meters having four types of width constrictions namely 2:1, 1.5:1, 1:1 and 90o in the direction of flow. These devices were made of MS sheets and installed separately in a rectangular flume. All these four devices were tested under free and submerged flow conditions. Eight different discharges varying from 2 lit/sec to 30 lit/sec were passed through each device. In total around 500 observations of upstream and downstream depths were taken in the present work. For each discharge, free submerged and critical submergence under different flow conditions were noted and plotted. Once the upstream and downstream depths of flow over any of the device are known, the discharge can be easily calculated with the help of the curves developed for free and submerged flow conditions. The device having contraction 2:1 is the most efficient one as it allows maximum critical submergence.

Keywords: Flowrate, flowmeter, open channels, submergence.

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Authors: M. Abbaspour, D. Mansouri, N. Mansouri

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There are reports of gas and oil wells fire due to different accidents. Many different methods are used for fire fighting in gas and oil industry. Traditional fire extinguishing techniques are mostly faced with many problems and are usually time consuming and needs lots of equipments. Besides, they cause damages to facilities, and create health and environmental problems. This article proposes innovative approach in fire extinguishing techniques in oil and gas industry, especially applicable for burning oil wells located offshore. Fire extinguishment employing a turbojet is a novel approach which can help to extinguishment the fire in short period of time. Divergent and convergent turbojets modeled in laboratory scale along with a high pressure flame were used. Different experiments were conducted to determine the relationship between output discharges of trumpet and oil wells. The results were corrected and the relationship between dimensionless parameters of flame and fire extinguishment distances and also the output discharge of turbojet and oil wells in specified distances are demonstrated by specific curves.

Keywords: Burning well, fire extinguishment, gas/oil industry, simulation.

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Authors: Mohamed Elhadi M. Sharif, Mona Masood

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The usage of e-health facilities is seen to be the first priority by the Libyan government. As such this paper focuses on how the key factors or elements of working size in terms of technological availability, structural environment, and other competence-related matters may affect nurses’ sharing of knowledge in e-health. Hence, this paper investigates learning readiness assessment to raise e-health for Libyan regional hospitals by using ehealth services in nursing education.

Keywords: Libyan nurses, e-Learning readiness, e-Health.

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Authors: Benjamin Anderson-Sackaney, Amr Abdel-Dayem

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This paper presents a comprehensive survey of recent source camera identification (SCI) systems. Then, the performance of various sensor pattern noise (SPN) estimators was experimentally assessed, under common photo response non-uniformity (PRNU) frameworks. The experiments used 1350 natural and 900 flat-field images, captured by 18 individual cameras. 12 different experiments, grouped into three sets, were conducted. The results were analyzed using the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. The experimental results demonstrated that combining the basic SPN estimator with a wavelet-based filtering scheme provides promising results. However, the phase SPN estimator fits better with both patch-based (BM3D) and anisotropic diffusion (AD) filtering schemes.

Keywords: Sensor pattern noise, source camera identification, photo response non-uniformity, anisotropic diffusion, peak to correlation energy ratio.

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Authors: J.E. Park, G.R. Kim, D.J. Yoon, C.H. Sin, I.S. Park, T.S. Bea, M.H. Lee

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Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) are attractive because of their excellent chemical durability mechanical strength and electrical properties. Therefore there is interest in CNTs for not only electrical and mechanical application, but also biological and medical application. In this study, the dispersion power of surfactant-treated multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) and their effect on the antibacterial activity were examined. Surfactant was used sodium dodecyl-benzenesulfonate (SDBS). UV-vis absorbance and transmission electron microscopy(TEM) were used to characterize the dispersion of MWCNTs in the aqueous phase, showing that the surfactant molecules had been adsorbed onto the MWCNTs surface. The surfactant-treated MWCNTs exhibited antimicrobial activities to streptococcus mutans. The optical density growth curves and viable cell number determined by the plating method suggested that the antimicrobial activity of surfactant-treated MWCNTs was both concentration and treatment time-dependent.

Keywords: MWCNT, SDBS, surfactant, antibacterial.

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Authors: Ashiquer Rahman, Ummey Salma, Afrin Jannat

Abstract:

Recently, oil has become more influential in almost every economic sector as a key material. As can be seen from the news, when there are some changes in an oil price or Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announces a new strategy, its effect spreads to every part of the economy directly and indirectly. That’s a reason why people always observe the oil price and try to forecast the changes of it. The most important factor affecting the price is its supply which is determined by the number of wildcats drilled. Therefore, a study in relation between the number of wellheads and other economic variables may give us some understanding of the mechanism indicated the amount of oil supplies. In this paper, we will consider a relationship between the number of wellheads and three key factors: price of the wellhead, domestic output, and Gross National Product (GNP) constant dollars. We also add trend variables in the models because the consumption of oil varies from time to time. Moreover, this paper will use an econometrics method to estimate parameters in the model, apply some tests to verify the result we acquire, and then conclude the model.

Keywords: Price, domestic output, GNP, trend variable, wildcat activity.

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Authors: E.Assareh, M.A. Behrang, R. Assareh, N. Hedayat

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An integrated Artificial Neural Network- Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is presented for analyzing global electricity consumption. To aim this purpose, following steps are done: STEP 1: in the first step, PSO is applied in order to determine world-s oil, natural gas, coal and primary energy demand equations based on socio-economic indicators. World-s population, Gross domestic product (GDP), oil trade movement and natural gas trade movement are used as socio-economic indicators in this study. For each socio-economic indicator, a feed-forward back propagation artificial neural network is trained and projected for future time domain. STEP 2: in the second step, global electricity consumption is projected based on the oil, natural gas, coal and primary energy consumption using PSO. global electricity consumption is forecasted up to year 2040.

Keywords: Particle Swarm Optimization, Artificial NeuralNetworks, Fossil Fuels, Electricity, Forecasting.

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Authors: K. L. Verma

Abstract:

Analysis for the propagation of elastic waves in arbitrary anisotropic plates is investigated, commencing with a formal analysis of waves in a layered plate of an arbitrary anisotropic media, the dispersion relations of elastic waves are obtained by invoking continuity at the interface and boundary of conditions on the surfaces of layered plate. The obtained solutions can be used for material systems of higher symmetry such as monoclinic, orthotropic, transversely isotropic, cubic, and isotropic as it is contained implicitly in the analysis. The cases of free layered plate and layered half space are considered separately. Some special cases have also been deduced and discussed. Finally numerical solution of the frequency equations for an aluminum epoxy is carried out, and the dispersion curves for the few lower modes are presented. The results obtained theoretically have been verified numerically and illustrated graphically.

Keywords: Anisotropic, layered, dispersion, elastic waves, frequency equations.

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