Search results for: computer aided prediction.

Authors: Kong Fah Tee, Lutfor Rahman Khan, Hongshuang Li

Abstract:

An advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for the time-dependent reliability prediction for underground pipelines has been presented in this paper. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level with efficient investigating of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. In SS method, random samples leading to progressive failure are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic performance by statistical variables. SS gains its efficiency as small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment. It is hoped that the development work can promote the use of SS tools for uncertainty propagation in the decision-making process of underground pipelines network reliability prediction.

Keywords: Underground pipelines, Probability of failure, Reliability and Subset Simulation.

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Authors: Karuna Tuchinda, Sasithon Bland

Abstract:

This work investigates the wear of a steam turbine blade coated with titanium nitride (TiN), and compares to the wear of uncoated blades. The coating is deposited on by physical vapor deposition (PVD) method. The working conditions of the blade were simulated and surface temperature and pressure values as well as flow velocity and flow direction were obtained. This data was used in the finite element wear model developed here in order to predict the wear of the blade. The wear mechanisms considered are erosive wear due to particle impingement and fluid jet, and fatigue wear due to repeated impingement of particles and fluid jet. Results show that the life of the TiN-coated blade is approximately 1.76 times longer than the life of the uncoated one.

Keywords: Physical vapour deposition, steam turbine blade, titanium-based coating, wear prediction.

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Authors: Ching-Shoei Chiang

Abstract:

The Malfatti’s problem solves the problem of fitting three circles into a right triangle such that these three circles are tangent to each other, and each circle is also tangent to a pair of the triangle’s sides. This problem has been extended to any triangle (called general Malfatti’s problem). Furthermore, the problem has been extended to have 1 + 2 + … + n circles inside the triangle with special tangency properties among circles and triangle sides; it is called the extended general Malfatti’s problem. In the extended general Malfatti’s problem, call it Tri(Tn), where Tn is the triangle number, there are closed-form solutions for the Tri(T₁) (inscribed circle) problem and Tri(T₂) (3 Malfatti’s circles) problem. These problems become more complex when n is greater than 2. In solving the Tri(Tn) problem, n > 2, algorithms have been proposed to solve these problems numerically. With a similar idea, this paper proposed an algorithm to find the radii of circles with the same tangency properties. Instead of the boundary of the triangle being a straight line, we use a convex circular arc as the boundary and try to find Tn circles inside this convex circular triangle with the same tangency properties among circles and boundary as in Tri(Tn) problems. We call these problems the Carc(Tn) problems. The algorithm is a mO(Tn) algorithm, where m is the number of iterations in the loop. It takes less than 1000 iterations and less than 1 second for the Carc(T16) problem, which finds 136 circles inside a convex circular triangle with specified tangency properties. This algorithm gives a solution for circle packing problem inside convex circular triangle with arbitrarily-sized circles. Many applications concerning circle packing may come from the result of the algorithm, such as logo design, architecture design, etc.

Keywords: Circle packing, computer-aided geometric design, geometric constraint solver, Malfatti’s problem.

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Authors: H.Mohammadi Majd, M.Jalali Azizpour , Foad Saadi

Abstract:

In this paper back-propagation artificial neural network (BPANN) is employed to predict the deformation of the upsetting process. To prepare a training set for BPANN, some finite element simulations were carried out. The input data for the artificial neural network are a set of parameters generated randomly (aspect ratio d/h, material properties, temperature and coefficient of friction). The output data are the coefficient of polynomial that fitted on barreling curves. Neural network was trained using barreling curves generated by finite element simulations of the upsetting and the corresponding material parameters. This technique was tested for three different specimens and can be successfully employed to predict the deformation of the upsetting process

Keywords: Back-propagation artificial neural network(BPANN), prediction, upsetting

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Authors: K. M. Doraiswamy, Lakshminarayana Merugu, B. C. Jinaga

Abstract:

This paper explains the cause of nonlinearity in floor attenuation hither to left unexplained. The performance degradation occurring in air interface for GSM signals is quantitatively analysed using the concept of Radiating Columns of buildings. The signal levels were measured using Wireless Network Optimising Drive Test Tool (E6474A of Agilent Technologies). The measurements were taken in reflected signal environment under usual fading conditions on actual GSM signals radiated from base stations. A mathematical model is derived from the measurements to predict the GSM signal levels in different floors. It was applied on three buildings and found that the predicted signal levels deviated from the measured levels with in +/- 2 dB for all floors. It is more accurate than the prediction models based on Floor Attenuation Factor. It can be used for planning proper indoor coverage in multi storey buildings.

Keywords: GSM air interface, nonlinear attenuation, multistory building, radiating columns, ground conduction and floor attenuation factor.

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Authors: Ali Nadi, Ali Edrissi

Abstract:

Relief demand and transportation links availability is the essential information that is needed for every natural disaster operation. This information is not in hand once a disaster strikes. Relief demand and network condition has been evaluated based on prediction method in related works. Nevertheless, prediction seems to be over or under estimated due to uncertainties and may lead to a failure operation. Therefore, in this paper a stochastic programming model is proposed to evaluate real-time relief demand and network condition at the onset of a natural disaster. To address the time sensitivity of the emergency response, the proposed model uses reinforcement learning for optimization of the total relief assessment time. The proposed model is tested on a real size network problem. The simulation results indicate that the proposed model performs well in the case of collecting real-time information.

Keywords: Disaster management, real-time demand, reinforcement learning, relief demand.

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Authors: E. Ahvar, M. Fathy

Abstract:

Ad hoc networks are characterized by multihop wireless connectivity, frequently changing network topology and the need for efficient dynamic routing protocols. We compare the performance of three routing protocols for mobile ad hoc networks: Dynamic Source Routing (DSR) , Ad Hoc On-Demand Distance Vector Routing (AODV), location-aided routing(LAR1).The performance differentials are analyzed using varying network load, mobility, and network size. We simulate protocols with GLOMOSIM simulator. Based on the observations, we make recommendations about when the performance of either protocol can be best.

Keywords: Ad hoc Network , Glomosim , routing protocols.

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Authors: M. Mohagheghian, A. M. Ghaedi, A. Vafaei

Abstract:

An artificial neural network (ANN) model is presented for the prediction of kinematic viscosity of binary mixtures of poly (ethylene glycol) (PEG) in water as a function of temperature, number-average molecular weight and mass fraction. Kinematic viscosities data of aqueous solutions for PEG (0.55419×10-6 – 9.875×10-6 m2/s) were obtained from the literature for a wide range of temperatures (277.15 - 338.15 K), number-average molecular weight (200 -10000), and mass fraction (0.0 – 1.0). A three layer feed-forward artificial neural network was employed. This model predicts the kinematic viscosity with a mean square error (MSE) of 0.281 and the coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.983. The results show that the kinematic viscosity of binary mixture of PEG in water could be successfully predicted using an artificial neural network model.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, kinematic viscosity, poly ethylene glycol (PEG)

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Authors: Sorayya Malek, Mogeeb Mosleh, Sharifah M. Syed

Abstract:

In this study, Support Vector Machine (SVM) technique was applied to predict the dichotomized value of Dissolved oxygen (DO) from two freshwater lakes namely Chini and Bera Lake (Malaysia). Data sample contained 11 parameters for water quality features from year 2005 until 2009. All data parameters were used to predicate the dissolved oxygen concentration which was dichotomized into 3 different levels (High, Medium, and Low). The input parameters were ranked, and forward selection method was applied to determine the optimum parameters that yield the lowest errors, and highest accuracy. Initial results showed that pH, Water Temperature, and Conductivity are the most important parameters that significantly affect the predication of DO. Then, SVM model was applied using the Anova kernel with those parameters yielded 74% accuracy rate. We concluded that using SVM models to predicate the DO is feasible, and using dichotomized value of DO yields higher prediction accuracy than using precise DO value.

Keywords: Dissolved oxygen, Water quality, predication DO, Support Vector Machine.

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Authors: Mijoh A. Gbededo, Kapila Liyanage, Ilias Oraifige

Abstract:

Decision making for sustainable manufacturing design and management requires critical considerations due to the complexity and partly conflicting issues of economic, social and environmental factors. Although there are tools capable of assessing the combination of one or two of the sustainability factors, the frameworks have not adequately integrated all the three factors. Case study and review of existing simulation applications also shows the approach lacks integration of the sustainability factors. In this paper we discussed the development of a simulation based framework for support of a holistic assessment of sustainable manufacturing design and management. To achieve this, a strategic approach is introduced to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of the existing decision supporting tools. Investigation reveals that Discrete Event Simulation (DES) can serve as a rock base for other Life Cycle Analysis frameworks. Simio-DES application optimizes systems for both economic and competitive advantage, Granta CES EduPack and SimaPro collate data for Material Flow Analysis and environmental Life Cycle Assessment, while social and stakeholders’ analysis is supported by Analytical Hierarchy Process, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis method. Such a common and integrated framework creates a platform for companies to build a computer simulation model of a real system and assess the impact of alternative solutions before implementing a chosen solution.

Keywords: Discrete event simulation, life cycle sustainability analysis, manufacturing, sustainability.

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Authors: Khairul Akram Zainol Ariffin, Ahmad Kamil Mahmood, Jafreezal Jaafar, Solahuddin Shamsuddin

Abstract:

Random Access Memory (RAM) is an important device in computer system. It can represent the snapshot on how the computer has been used by the user. With the growth of its importance, the computer memory has been an issue that has been discussed in digital forensics. A number of tools have been developed to retrieve the information from the memory. However, most of the tools have their limitation in the ability of retrieving the important information from the computer memory. Hence, this paper is aimed to discuss the limitation and the setback for two main techniques such as process signature search and process enumeration. Then, a new hybrid approach will be presented to minimize the setback in both individual techniques. This new approach combines both techniques with the purpose to retrieve the information from the process block and other objects in the computer memory. Nevertheless, the basic theory in address translation for x86 platforms will be demonstrated in this paper.

Keywords: Algorithms, Digital Forensics, Memory Analysis, Signature Search.

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Authors: Iliana Marinova, Valentin Mateev

Abstract:

In this paper a computer system for electromagnetic properties measurements is designed. The system employs Agilent 4294A precision impedance analyzer to measure the amplitude and the phase of a signal applied over a tested biological tissue sample. Measured by the developed computer system data could be used for tissue characterization in wide frequency range from 40Hz to 110MHz. The computer system can interface with output devices acquiring flexible testing process.

Keywords: Electromagnetic properties, human tissue, bioimpedance, measurement system.

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Authors: Peng Hao Wang, Garam Kim, Ronald Sterkenburg

Abstract:

In composite manufacturing, the fabrication of tooling and tooling maintenance contributes to a large portion of the total cost. However, as the applications of composite materials continue to increase, there is also a growing demand for more tooling. The demand for more tooling places heavy emphasis on the industry’s ability to fabricate high quality tools while maintaining the tool’s cost effectiveness. One of the popular techniques of tool fabrication currently being developed utilizes additive manufacturing technology known as 3D printing. The popularity of 3D printing is due to 3D printing’s ability to maintain low material waste, low cost, and quick fabrication time. In this study, a team of Purdue University School of Aviation and Transportation Technology (SATT) faculty and students investigated the effectiveness of a 3D printed composite mold. A steel valve cover from an aircraft reciprocating engine was modeled utilizing 3D scanning and computer-aided design (CAD) to create a 3D printed composite mold. The mold was used to fabricate carbon fiber versions of the aircraft reciprocating engine valve cover. The carbon fiber valve covers were evaluated for dimensional accuracy and quality while the 3D printed composite mold was evaluated for durability and dimensional stability. The data collected from this study provided valuable information in the understanding of 3D printed composite molds, potential improvements for the molds, and considerations for future tooling design.

Keywords: Additive manufacturing, carbon fiber, composite tooling, molds.

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Authors: Azad A. Mohammed, Gulan B. Hassan

Abstract:

Analytical procedure was carried out in this paper to calculate the ultimate load capacity of reinforced concrete corbels strengthened or repaired externally with CFRP sheets. Strut and tie method and shear friction method proposed earlier for analyzing reinforced concrete corbels were modified to incorporate the effect of external CFRP sheets bonded to the corbel. The points of weakness of any method that lead to an inaccuracy, especially when overestimating test results were checked and discussed. Comparison of prediction with the test data indicates that the ratio of test / calculated ultimate load is 0.82 and 1.17 using strut and tie method and shear friction method, respectively. If the limits of maximum shear stress is followed, the calculated ultimate load capacity using shear friction method was found to underestimates test data considerably.

Keywords: Corbel, Strengthening, Strut and Tie Model, Shear Friction

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Authors: Enas M. F. El Houby, Marwa S. Hassan

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Combined therapy using Interferon and Ribavirin is the standard treatment in patients with chronic hepatitis C. However, the number of responders to this treatment is low, whereas its cost and side effects are high. Therefore, there is a clear need to predict patient’s response to the treatment based on clinical information to protect the patients from the bad drawbacks, Intolerable side effects and waste of money. Different machine learning techniques have been developed to fulfill this purpose. From these techniques are Associative Classification (AC) and Decision Tree (DT). The aim of this research is to compare the performance of these two techniques in the prediction of virological response to the standard treatment of HCV from clinical information. 200 patients treated with Interferon and Ribavirin; were analyzed using AC and DT. 150 cases had been used to train the classifiers and 50 cases had been used to test the classifiers. The experiment results showed that the two techniques had given acceptable results however the best accuracy for the AC reached 92% whereas for DT reached 80%.

Keywords: Associative Classification, Data mining, Decision tree, HCV, interferon.

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Authors: Mir Shahriar Emami, Mohammad Reza Meybodi

Abstract:

Prime Factorization based on Quantum approach in two phases has been performed. The first phase has been achieved at Quantum computer and the second phase has been achieved at the classic computer (Post Processing). At the second phase the goal is to estimate the period r of equation xrN ≡ 1 and to find the prime factors of the composite integer N in classic computer. In this paper we present a method based on Randomized Approach for estimation the period r with a satisfactory probability and the composite integer N will be factorized therefore with the Randomized Approach even the gesture of the period is not exactly the real period at least we can find one of the prime factors of composite N. Finally we present some important points for designing an Emulator for Quantum Computer Simulation.

Keywords: Quantum Prime Factorization, RandomizedAlgorithms, Quantum Computer Simulation, Quantum Computation.

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Authors: M. Raciti Castelli, G. Grandi, E. Benini

Abstract:

This paper presents a study of laminar to turbulent transition on a profile specifically designed for wind turbine blades, the DU91-W2-250, which belongs to a class of wind turbine dedicated airfoils, developed by Delft University of Technology. A comparison between the experimental behavior of the airfoil studied at Delft wind tunnel and the numerical predictions of the commercial CFD solver ANSYS FLUENT® has been performed. The prediction capabilities of the Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model and of the γ-θ Transitional model have been tested. A sensitivity analysis of the numerical results to the spatial domain discretization has also been performed using four different computational grids, which have been created using the mesher GAMBIT®. The comparison between experimental measurements and CFD results have allowed to determine the importance of the numerical prediction of the laminar to turbulent transition, in order not to overestimate airfoil friction drag due to a fully turbulent-regime flow computation.

Keywords: CFD, wind turbine, DU91-W2-250, laminar to turbulent transition.

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Authors: Zohreh Sheikh Khozani, Wan Hanna Melini Wan Mohtar, Mojtaba Porhemmat

Abstract:

Prediction of wall shear stress in a rectangular channel, with non-homogeneous roughness distribution, was studied. Estimation of shear stress is an important subject in hydraulic engineering, since it affects the flow structure directly. In this study, the Genetic Algorithm Artificial (GAA) neural network is introduced as a hybrid methodology of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and modified Genetic Algorithm (GA) combination. This GAA method was employed to predict the wall shear stress. Various input combinations and transfer functions were considered to find the most appropriate GAA model. The results show that the proposed GAA method could predict the wall shear stress of open channels with high accuracy, by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.064 in the test dataset. Thus, using GAA provides an accurate and practical simple-to-use equation.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, genetic algorithm, genetic programming, rectangular channel, shear stress.

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Authors: Yun Bai

Abstract:

Representing objects in a dynamic domain is essential in commonsense reasoning under some circumstances. Classical logics and their nonmonotonic consequences, however, are usually not able to deal with reasoning with dynamic domains due to the fact that every constant in the logical language denotes some existing object in the static domain. In this paper, we explore a logical formalization which allows us to represent nonexisting objects in commonsense reasoning. A formal system named N-theory is proposed for this purpose and its possible application in computer security is briefly discussed.

Keywords: knowledge representation and reasoning, commonsensereasoning, computer security

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Authors: Muhammad Aqil, Ichiro Kita, Moses Macalinao

Abstract:

Reliable water level forecasts are particularly important for warning against dangerous flood and inundation. The current study aims at investigating the suitability of the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system for continuous water level modeling. A hybrid learning algorithm, which combines the least square method and the back propagation algorithm, is used to identify the parameters of the network. For this study, water levels data are available for a hydrological year of 2002 with a sampling interval of 1-hour. The number of antecedent water level that should be included in the input variables is determined by two statistical methods, i.e. autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function between the variables. Forecasting was done for 1-hour until 12-hour ahead in order to compare the models generalization at higher horizons. The results demonstrate that the adaptive networkbased fuzzy inference system model can be applied successfully and provide high accuracy and reliability for river water level estimation. In general, the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system provides accurate and reliable water level prediction for 1-hour ahead where the MAPE=1.15% and correlation=0.98 was achieved. Up to 12-hour ahead prediction, the model still shows relatively good performance where the error of prediction resulted was less than 9.65%. The information gathered from the preliminary results provide a useful guidance or reference for flood early warning system design in which the magnitude and the timing of a potential extreme flood are indicated.

Keywords: Neural Network, Fuzzy, River, Forecasting

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Authors: Markus Kaiser, Johannes Buchmann

Abstract:

In this paper we explore the application of a formal proof system to verification problems in cryptography. Cryptographic properties concerning correctness or security of some cryptographic algorithms are of great interest. Beside some basic lemmata, we explore an implementation of a complex function that is used in cryptography. More precisely, we describe formal properties of this implementation that we computer prove. We describe formalized probability distributions (o--algebras, probability spaces and condi¬tional probabilities). These are given in the formal language of the formal proof system Isabelle/HOL. Moreover, we computer prove Bayes' Formula. Besides we describe an application of the presented formalized probability distributions to cryptography. Furthermore, this paper shows that computer proofs of complex cryptographic functions are possible by presenting an implementation of the Miller- Rabin primality test that admits formal verification. Our achievements are a step towards computer verification of cryptographic primitives. They describe a basis for computer verification in cryptography. Computer verification can be applied to further problems in crypto-graphic research, if the corresponding basic mathematical knowledge is available in a database.

Keywords: prime numbers, primality tests, (conditional) proba¬bility distributions, formal proof system, higher-order logic, formal verification, Bayes' Formula, Miller-Rabin primality test.

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Authors: Nastaran Moosavi, Mohammad Mokhtari

Abstract:

Seismic inversion is a technique which has been in use for years and its main goal is to estimate and to model physical characteristics of rocks and fluids. Generally, it is a combination of seismic and well-log data. Seismic inversion can be carried out through different methods; we have conducted and compared post-stack and pre- stack seismic inversion methods on real data in one of the fields in the Persian Gulf. Pre-stack seismic inversion can transform seismic data to rock physics such as P-impedance, S-impedance and density. While post- stack seismic inversion can just estimate P-impedance. Then these parameters can be used in reservoir identification. Based on the results of inverting seismic data, a gas reservoir was detected in one of Hydrocarbon oil fields in south of Iran (Persian Gulf). By comparing post stack and pre-stack seismic inversion it can be concluded that the pre-stack seismic inversion provides a more reliable and detailed information for identification and prediction of hydrocarbon reservoirs.

Keywords: Density, P-impedance, S-impedance, post-stack seismic inversion, pre-stack seismic inversion.

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Authors: J. Bouchard, B. Prosperi, G. Bavre, M. Daudé, E. Jeandupeux

Abstract:

Young patients suffering from Cerebral Palsy are facing difficult choices concerning heavy surgeries. Diagnosis settled by surgeons can be complex and on the other hand decision for patient about getting or not such a surgery involves important reflection effort. Proposed software combining prediction for surgeries and post surgery kinematic values, and from 3D model representing the patient is an innovative tool helpful for both patients and medicine professionals. Beginning with analysis and classification of kinematics values from Data Base extracted from gait analysis in 3 separated clusters, it is possible to determine close similarity between patients. Prediction surgery best adapted to improve a patient gait is then determined by operating a suitable preconditioned neural network. Finally, patient 3D modeling based on kinematic values analysis, is animated thanks to post surgery kinematic vectors characterizing the closest patient selected from patients clustering.

Keywords: Cerebral Palsy, Clustering, Crouch Gait, 3-D Modeling.

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Authors: Kostandinos Katsamangas, B. Ramachandra Bhat, Fawad Inam

Abstract:

Graphene was dispersed using a tip sonicator and the effect of surfactants were analysed. Sodium Dodecyl Sulphate (SDS) and Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA) were compared to observe whether or not they had any effect on any de-wrinkling, and secondly whether they aided to achieve better dispersions. There is a huge demand for wrinkle free graphene as this will greatly increase its usefulness in various engineering applications. A comprehensive literature on dewrinkling graphene has been discussed. Low magnification Scanning Electronic Microscopy (SEM) was conducted to assess the quality of graphene de-wrinkling. The utilization of the PVA has significant effect on de-wrinkling whereas SDS had minimal effect on the dewrinkling of graphene.

Keywords: De-wrinkling, dispersion, graphene, scanning electron microscopy.

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Authors: K. S. Jasmine, R. Vasantha

Abstract:

Component-Based software engineering provides an opportunity for better quality and increased productivity in software development by using reusable software components [10]. One of the most critical aspects of the quality of a software system is its performance. The systematic application of software performance engineering techniques throughout the development process can help to identify design alternatives that preserve desirable qualities such as extensibility and reusability while meeting performance objectives [1]. In the present scenario, software engineering methodologies strongly focus on the functionality of the system, while applying a “fix- it-later" approach to software performance aspects [3]. As a result, lengthy fine-tunings, expensive extra hard ware, or even redesigns are necessary for the system to meet the performance requirements. In this paper, we propose design based, implementation independent, performance prediction approach to reduce the overhead associated in the later phases while developing a performance guaranteed software product with the help of Unified Modeling Language (UML).

Keywords: Software Reuse, Component-based development, Unified Modeling Language, Software performance, Software components, Performance engineering, Software engineering.

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Authors: Carol B.Collins, M. H. N Tabrizi

Abstract:

The purposes of this paper are to (1) promote excellence in computer science by suggesting a cohesive innovative approach to fill well documented deficiencies in current computer science education, (2) justify (using the authors- and others anecdotal evidence from both the classroom and the real world) why this approach holds great potential to successfully eliminate the deficiencies, (3) invite other professionals to join the authors in proof of concept research. The authors- experiences, though anecdotal, strongly suggest that a new approach involving visual modeling technologies should allow computer science programs to retain a greater percentage of prospective and declared majors as students become more engaged learners, more successful problem-solvers, and better prepared as programmers. In addition, the graduates of such computer science programs will make greater contributions to the profession as skilled problem-solvers. Instead of wearily rememorizing code as they move to the next course, students will have the problem-solving skills to think and work in more sophisticated and creative ways.

Keywords: Algorithms, CASE, Problem-solving, UML.

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, Aqil S. Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Quantile Regression, Fuzzy time series, fuzzy logicalrelationship groups, heuristic trend prediction.

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Authors: Alanoud Moraya Aldalan, Abdulaziz Almaleh

Abstract:

A crucial part of maintaining a customer-oriented business in the telecommunications industry is understanding the reasons and factors that lead to customer churn. Competition between telecom companies has greatly increased in recent years, which has made it more important to understand customers’ needs in this strong market. For those who are looking to turn over their service providers, understanding their needs is especially important. Predictive churn is now a mandatory requirement for retaining customers in the telecommunications industry. Machine learning can be used to accomplish this. Churn Prediction has become a very important topic in terms of machine learning classification in the telecommunications industry. Understanding the factors of customer churn and how they behave is very important to building an effective churn prediction model. This paper aims to predict churn and identify factors of customers’ churn based on their past service usage history. Aiming at this objective, the study makes use of feature selection, normalization, and feature engineering. Then, this study compared the performance of four different machine learning algorithms on the Orange dataset: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Gradient Boosting. Evaluation of the performance was conducted by using the F1 score and ROC-AUC. Comparing the results of this study with existing models has proven to produce better results. The results showed the Gradients Boosting with feature selection technique outperformed in this study by achieving a 99% F1-score and 99% AUC, and all other experiments achieved good results as well.

Keywords: Machine Learning, Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression, Churn, Random Forest, Decision Tree, ROC, AUC, F1-score.

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Authors: Z. Bottyán, F. Wantuch, A. Z. Gyöngyösi, Z. Tuba, K. Hadobács, P. Kardos, R. Kurunczi

Abstract:

The sensitivity of UAVs to the atmospheric effects are apparent. All the same the meteorological support for the UAVs missions is often non-adequate or partly missing. In our paper we show a new complex meteorological support system for different types of UAVs pilots, specialists and decision makers, too. The mentioned system has two important parts with different forecasts approach such as the statistical and dynamical ones. The statistical prediction approach is based on a large climatological data base and the special analog method which is able to select similar weather situations from the mentioned data base to apply them during the forecasting procedure. The applied dynamic approach uses the specific WRF model runs twice a day and produces 96 hours, high resolution weather forecast for the UAV users over the Hungary. An easy to use web-based system can give important weather information over the Carpathian basin in Central-Europe. The mentioned products can be reached via internet connection.

Keywords: Aviation meteorology, statistical weather prediction, unmanned aerial systems, WRF.

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Authors: Tai Yuan Yu, Pei-Jen Wang

Abstract:

Oil-free turbomachinery is considered one of the critical technologies for future green power generation systems as rotor machinery systems. Oil-free technology allows clean, compact, and maintenance-free working, and gas foil bearings (GFBs) are important for the technology. Since the first applications in the auxiliary power units and air cycle machines in the 1970s, obvious improvement has been created to the computational models for dynamic rotor behavior. However, many technical issues are still poorly understood or remain unsolved, and some of those are thermal management and the pattern of how pressure will be distributed in bearing clearance. This paper presents a three-dimensional (3D) fluid-structure interaction model of single pad foil bearings and three pad foil bearings to predict bearing working behavior that researchers could compare characteristics of those. The coupling analysis model involves dynamic working characteristics applied to all the gas film and mechanical structures. Therefore, the elastic deformation of foil structure and the hydrodynamic pressure of gas film can both be calculated by a finite element method program. As a result, the temperature distribution pattern could also be iteratively solved by coupling analysis. In conclusion, the working fluid state in a gas film of various pad forms of bearings working characteristic at constant rotational speed for both can be solved for comparisons with the experimental results.

Keywords: Fluid structure interaction multi-physics simulations, gas foil bearing, oil-free, transient thermohydrodynamic.

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