Search results for: Small area estimation

Authors: Khaled M. El Naggar

Abstract:

This paper introduces a digital method for fault section identification in transmission lines. The method uses digital set of the measured short circuit current to locate faults in electrical power systems. The digitized current is used to construct a set of overdetermined system of equations. The problem is then constructed and solved using the proposed digital optimization technique to find the fault distance. The proposed optimization methodology is an application of simulated annealing optimization technique. The method is tested using practical case study to evaluate the proposed method. The accurate results obtained show that the algorithm can be used as a powerful tool in the area of power system protection.

Keywords: Optimization, estimation, faults, measurement, high voltage, simulated annealing.

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Authors: Jana Puchyova

Abstract:

In recent years a number of applications with multirobot systems (MRS) is growing in various areas. But their design is in practice often difficult and algorithms are proposed for the theoretical background and do not consider errors and noise in real conditions, so they are not usable in real environment. These errors are visible also in task of target localization enough, when robots try to find and estimate the position of the target by the sensors. Localization of target is possible also with one robot but as it was examined target finding and localization with group of mobile robots can estimate the target position more accurately and faster. The accuracy of target position estimation is made by cooperation of MRS and particle filtering. Advantage of usage the MRS with particle filtering was tested on task of fixed target localization by group of mobile robots.

Keywords: Multi-robot system, particle filter, position estimation, target localization.

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Authors: Fanqiang Kong, Chending Bian

Abstract:

In this work, we exploit two assumed properties of the abundances of the observed signatures (endmembers) in order to reconstruct the abundances from hyperspectral data. Joint-sparsity is the first property of the abundances, which assumes the adjacent pixels can be expressed as different linear combinations of same materials. The second property is rank-deficiency where the number of endmembers participating in hyperspectral data is very small compared with the dimensionality of spectral library, which means that the abundances matrix of the endmembers is a low-rank matrix. These assumptions lead to an optimization problem for the sparse unmixing model that requires minimizing a combined l_2,p-norm and nuclear norm. We propose a variable splitting and augmented Lagrangian algorithm to solve the optimization problem. Experimental evaluation carried out on synthetic and real hyperspectral data shows that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art algorithms with a better spectral unmixing accuracy.

Keywords: Hyperspectral unmixing, joint-sparse, low-rank representation, abundance estimation.

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Authors: Sangbum Park, Namki Lee, Youngjoon Han, Hernsoo Hahn

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In this paper, we propose the robust water level detection method based on the accumulated histogram under small changed image which is acquired from water level surveillance camera. In general surveillance system, this is detecting and recognizing invasion from searching area which is in big change on the sequential images. However, in case of a water level detection system, these general surveillance techniques are not suitable due to small change on the water surface. Therefore the algorithm introduces the accumulated histogram which is emphasizing change of water surface in sequential images. Accumulated histogram is based on the current image frame. The histogram is cumulating differences between previous images and current image. But, these differences are also appeared in the land region. The band pass filter is able to remove noises in the accumulated histogram Finally, this algorithm clearly separates water and land regions. After these works, the algorithm converts from the water level value on the image space to the real water level on the real space using calibration table. The detected water level is sent to the host computer with current image. To evaluate the proposed algorithm, we use test images from various situations.

Keywords: accumulated histogram, water level detection, band pass filter.

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Authors: T. Kerdchuen

Abstract:

This paper proposes the stochastic tabu search (STS) for improving the measurement scheme for power system state estimation. If the original measured scheme is not observable, the additional measurements with minimum number of measurements are added into the system by STS so that there is no critical measurement pair. The random bit flipping and bit exchanging perturbations are used for generating the neighborhood solutions in STS. The Pδ observable concept is used to determine the network observability. Test results of 10 bus, IEEE 14 and 30 bus systems are shown that STS can improve the original measured scheme to be observable without critical measurement pair. Moreover, the results of STS are superior to deterministic tabu search (DTS) in terms of the best solution hit.

Keywords: Measurement Scheme, Power System StateEstimation, Network Observability, Stochastic Tabu Search (STS).

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Authors: Alireza Mallahzadeh, Hamid Dehghani, Iman Elyasi

Abstract:

A new method, based on the normal shrink and modified version of Katssagelous and Lay, is proposed for multiscale blind image restoration. The method deals with the noise and blur in the images. It is shown that the normal shrink gives the highest S/N (signal to noise ratio) for image denoising process. The multiscale blind image restoration is divided in two sections. The first part of this paper proposes normal shrink for image denoising and the second part of paper proposes modified version of katssagelous and Lay for blur estimation and the combination of both methods to reach a multiscale blind image restoration.

Keywords: Multiscale blind image restoration, image denoising, blur estimation.

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Authors: Decha Samana, Vites Longani

Abstract:

For positive integer s and t, the Ramsey number R(s, t) is the least positive integer n such that for every graph G of order n, either G contains Ks as a subgraph or G contains Kt as a subgraph. We construct the circulant graphs and use them to obtain lower bounds of some small Ramsey numbers.

Keywords: Lower bound, Ramsey numbers, Graphs, Distance line.

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Authors: Ion-Cosmin Dita, Vasile Gui, Franz Quint, Marius Otesteanu

Abstract:

In automatic manufacturing and assembling of mechanical, electrical and electronic parts one needs to reliably identify the position of components and to extract the information of these components. Data Matrix Codes (DMC) are established by these days in many areas of industrial manufacturing thanks to their concentration of information on small spaces. In today’s usually order-related industry, where increased tracing requirements prevail, they offer further advantages over other identification systems. This underlines in an impressive way the necessity of a robust code reading system for detecting DMC on the components in factories. This paper compares two methods for estimating the angle of orientation of Data Matrix Codes: one method based on the Hough Transform and the other based on the Mean Shift Algorithm. We concentrate on Data Matrix Codes in industrial environment, punched, milled, lasered or etched on different materials in arbitrary orientation.

Keywords: Industrial data matrix code, Hough transform, mean shift.

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Authors: Tomas Luneckas, Dainius Udris

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In this paper a simple terrain evaluation method for hexapod robot is introduced. This method is based on feet coordinate evaluation when all are on the ground. Depending on the feet coordinate differences the local terrain evaluation is possible. Terrain evaluation is necessary for right gait selection and/or body position correction. For terrain roughness evaluation three planes are plotted: two of them as definition points use opposite feet coordinates, third coincides with the robot body plane. The leaning angle of body plane is evaluated measuring gravity force using three-axis accelerometer. Terrain roughness evaluation method is based on angle estimation between normal vectors of these planes. Aim of this work is to present a simple method for embedded robot controller, allowing to find the best further movement settings.

Keywords: Hexapod robot, pose estimation, terrain evaluation, terrain roughness.

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Authors: Oguz Ustun, Erdal Bekiroglu

Abstract:

In the present study, position estimation of switched reluctance motor (SRM) has been achieved on the basis of the artificial neural networks (ANNs). The ANNs can estimate the rotor position without using an extra rotor position sensor by measuring the phase flux linkages and phase currents. Flux linkage-phase current-rotor position data set and supervised backpropagation learning algorithm are used in training of the ANN based position estimator. A 4-phase SRM have been used to verify the accuracy and feasibility of the proposed position estimator. Simulation results show that the proposed position estimator gives precise and accurate position estimations for both under the low and high level reference speeds of the SRM

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, modeling andsimulation, position observer, switched reluctance motor.

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Authors: T. Mokhele, O. Mutanga, F. Ahmed

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South Africa is one of the few countries that have stopped using the same Enumeration Areas (EAs) for census enumeration and dissemination. The advantage of this change is that confidentiality issue could be addressed for census dissemination as the design of geographic unit for collection is mainly to ensure that this unit is covered by one enumerator. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the performance of automated zone design output areas against non-zone design developed geographies using the 2001 census data, and 2011 census to some extent, as the main input. The comparison of the Automated Zone-design Tool (AZTool) census output areas with the Small Area Layers (SALs) and SubPlaces based on confidentiality limit, population distribution, and degree of homogeneity, as well as shape compactness, was undertaken. Further, SPSS was employed for validation of the AZTool output results. The results showed that AZTool developed output areas out-perform the existing official SAL and SubPlaces with regard to minimum population threshold, population distribution and to some extent to homogeneity. Therefore, it was concluded that AZTool program provides a new alternative to the creation of optimised census output areas for dissemination of population census data in South Africa.

Keywords: AZTool, enumeration areas, small areal layers, South Africa.

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Authors: A. D. Parekh, P. R. Tailor, Tejendra Patel

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Capacity and efficiency of any refrigerating system diminish rapidly as the difference between the evaporating and condensing temperature is increased by a reduction in the evaporator temperature. The single stage vapour compression refrigeration system using various refrigerants are limited to an evaporator temperature of -40 0C. Below temperature of -40 0C the either cascade refrigeration system or multi stage vapour compression system is employed. Present work describes thermal design of condenser (HTS), cascade condenser and evaporator (LTS) of R404A-R508B and R410A-R23 cascade refrigeration system. Heat transfer area of condenser, cascade condenser and evaporator for both systems are compared and the effect of condenser and evaporator temperature on heat-transfer area for both systems is studied under same operating condition. The results shows that the required heat-transfer area of condenser and cascade condenser for R410A-R23 cascade system is lower than the R404A-R508B cascade system but heat transfer area of evaporator is similar for both the system. The heat transfer area of condenser and cascade condenser decreases with increase in condenser temperature (Tc), whereas the heat transfer area of cascade condenser and evaporator increases with increase in evaporator temperature (Te).

Keywords: Heat-transfer area, R410A, R404A, R508B, R23, Refrigeration system, Thermal design

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Authors: Hyoup-Sang Yoon

Abstract:

Video-on-demand (VOD) is designed by using content delivery networks (CDN) to minimize the overall operational cost and to maximize scalability. Estimation of the viewing pattern (i.e., the relationship between the number of viewings and the ranking of VOD contents) plays an important role in minimizing the total operational cost and maximizing the performance of the VOD systems. In this paper, we have analyzed a large body of commercial VOD viewing data and found that the viewing rank distribution fits well with the parabolic fractal distribution. The weighted linear model fitting function is used to estimate the parameters (coefficients) of the parabolic fractal distribution. This paper presents an analytical basis for designing an optimal hierarchical VOD contents distribution system in terms of its cost and performance.

Keywords: VOD, CDN, parabolic fractal distribution, viewing rank, weighted linear model fitting

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Authors: Isti Surjandari, Riara Novita

Abstract:

Maintenance is one of the most important activities in the shipyard industry. However, sometimes it is not supported by adequate services from the shipyard, where inaccuracy in estimating the duration of the ship maintenance is still common. This makes estimation of ship maintenance duration is crucial. This study uses Data Mining approach, i.e., CART (Classification and Regression Tree) to estimate the duration of ship maintenance that is limited to dock works or which is known as dry docking. By using the volume of dock works as an input to estimate the maintenance duration, 4 classes of dry docking duration were obtained with different linear model and job criteria for each class. These linear models can then be used to estimate the duration of dry docking based on job criteria.

Keywords: Classification and regression tree (CART), data mining, dry docking, maintenance duration.

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Authors: Eiko Takaoka, Yuji Osawa

Abstract:

We have designed and implemented e-Learning materials for a JAVA programming course since 2004 and have found that “normal” students, meaning motivated and capable students, can successfully learn the course material taught in a fully online manner. However, for “weaker” students, meaning those lacking motivation, experience, and/or aptitude, the results have been unsatisfactory, and such students thus fall into the supplementary category. From 2007 to 2008, we offered a face-to-face class with small-group instruction for the weaker students, while we provided the fully online course for the normal students. Consequently, we succeeded in helping the weaker students to overcome their programming phobia and develop the ability to create basic programs.

Keywords: e-learning, JAVA Programming Course, Small-Group Instruction, Supplementary.

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Authors: Sun Jiaojiao, Fu Jiayan

Abstract:

At present, in China, the research about the urban sustainability construction is still in the exploratory stage. The ecological problems of the coastal area are more sensitive and complicated. In the background of global warming with serious ecological damage, this paper deeply researches on the main characteristics of urban sustainability and measures how to build urban sustainability. Through combining regional environmental with economic ability along the coastal area, then authors put forward the system planning framework, construction strategy and the evaluation index system, in order to seek the way of building urban sustainability along coastal area in China.

Keywords: Urban sustainability, coastal areas, construction strategy, evaluation index system.

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Authors: R. Prabha, N. Ramaraj

Abstract:

Routing in adhoc networks is a challenge as nodes are mobile, and links are constantly created and broken. Present ondemand adhoc routing algorithms initiate route discovery after a path breaks, incurring significant cost to detect disconnection and establish a new route. Specifically, when a path is about to be broken, the source is warned of the likelihood of a disconnection. The source then initiates path discovery early, avoiding disconnection totally. A path is considered about to break when link availability decreases. This study modifies Adhoc On-demand Multipath Distance Vector routing (AOMDV) so that route handoff occurs through link availability estimation.

Keywords: Mobile Adhoc Network (MANET), Routing, Adhoc On-demand Multipath Distance Vector routing (AOMDV), Link Availability.

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Authors: Wuttigrai Ngamsirijit, Yodmanee Tepanon

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Transportation is one of the main activities related to creating value for the tourists. Transport management in tourism mainly focuses on managing transfer points and vehicle capacity. However, transport service level must also be ensured as it now relates to tourist-s experiences. This paper emphasizes on the responsiveness as one of key service performance measures. An evaluation framework is developed and illustarted by using the case of small bus service in Pattaya city. It can be seen as a great potential for the city to utilize the small bus transportation in order to meet the needs of more diverse group of passengers and to support the expansion of tourist areas. The framework integrates with service operations management, logistics, and tourism behavior perspectives. The findings from the investigation of existing small bus service are presented and preliminarily validate the usability of the framework.

Keywords: Responsiveness, Demand responsive transportation, Tourism, Logistics

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Authors: Adeniyi G. Adeogun, Bolaji F. Sule, Adebayo W. Salami, Michael O. Daramola

Abstract:

Estimation of water yield and water balance in a river catchment is critical to the sustainable management of water resources at watershed level in any country. Therefore, in the present study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) interfaced with Geographical Information System (GIS) was applied as a tool to predict water balance and water yield of a catchment area in Nigeria. The catchment area, which was 12,992km², is located upstream Jebba hydropower dam in North central part of Nigeria. In this study, data on the observed flow were collected and compared with simulated flow using SWAT. The correlation between the two data sets was evaluated using statistical measures, such as, Nasch-Sucliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R²). The model output shows a good agreement between the observed flow and simulated flow as indicated by NSE and R², which were greater than 0.7 for both calibration and validation period. A total of 42,733 mm of water was predicted by the calibrated model as the water yield potential of the basin for a simulation period between 1985 to 2010. This interesting performance obtained with SWAT model suggests that SWAT model could be a promising tool to predict water balance and water yield in sustainable management of water resources. In addition, SWAT could be applied to other water resources in other basins in Nigeria as a decision support tool for sustainable water management in Nigeria.

Keywords: GIS, Modeling, Sensitivity Analysis, SWAT, Water Yield, Watershed level.

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Authors: Abu Bakar Sambah, Fusanori Miura

Abstract:

Remote sensing image processing, spatial data analysis through GIS approach, and analytical hierarchy process were introduced in this study for assessing the vulnerability area and inundation area due to tsunami hazard in the area of Rikuzentakata, Iwate Prefecture, Japan. Appropriate input parameters were derived from GSI DEM data, ALOS AVNIR-2, and field data. We used the parameters of elevation, slope, shoreline distance, and vegetation density. Five classes of vulnerability were defined and weighted via pairwise comparison matrix. The assessment results described that 14.35km² of the study area was under tsunami vulnerability zone. Inundation areas are those of high and slightly high vulnerability. The farthest area reached by a tsunami was about 7.50km from the shoreline and shows that rivers act as flooding strips that transport tsunami waves into the hinterland. This study can be used for determining a priority for land-use planning in the scope of tsunami hazard risk management.

Keywords: AHP, GIS, remote sensing, tsunami vulnerability.

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Authors: Surya Prakash, Sunil Kumar Sinha

Abstract:

This paper deals with the application of artificial neural network (ANN) and fuzzy based Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System(ANFIS) approach to Load Frequency Control (LFC) of multi unequal area hydro-thermal interconnected power system. The proposed ANFIS controller combines the advantages of fuzzy controller as well as quick response and adaptability nature of ANN. Area-1 and area-2 consists of thermal reheat power plant whereas area-3 and area-4 consists of hydro power plant with electric governor. Performance evaluation is carried out by using intelligent controller like ANFIS, ANN and Fuzzy controllers and conventional PI and PID control approaches. To enhance the performance of intelligent and conventional controller sliding surface is included. The performances of the controllers are simulated using MATLAB/SIMULINK package. A comparison of ANFIS, ANN, Fuzzy, PI and PID based approaches shows the superiority of proposed ANFIS over ANN & fuzzy, PI and PID controller for 1% step load variation.

Keywords: Load Frequency Control (LFC), ANFIS, ANN & Fuzzy, PI, PID Controllers, Area Control Error (ACE), Tie-line, MATLAB / SIMULINK.

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Authors: Min Kook Choi, Hyun Gyu Lee, Ryan You, Byeong-Seok Shin, Sang-Chul Lee

Abstract:

Wireless capsule Endoscopy (WCE) has rapidly shown its wide applications in medical domain last ten years thanks to its noninvasiveness for patients and support for thorough inspection through a patient-s entire digestive system including small intestine. However, one of the main barriers to efficient clinical inspection procedure is that it requires large amount of effort for clinicians to inspect huge data collected during the examination, i.e., over 55,000 frames in video. In this paper, we propose a method to compute meaningful motion changes of WCE by analyzing the obtained video frames based on regional optical flow estimations. The computed motion vectors are used to remove duplicate video frames caused by WCE-s imaging nature, such as repetitive forward-backward motions from peristaltic movements. The motion vectors are derived by calculating directional component vectors in four local regions. Our experiments are performed on small intestine area, which is of main interest to clinical experts when using WCEs, and our experimental results show significant frame reductions comparing with a simple frame-to-frame similarity-based image reduction method.

Keywords: Wireless capsule endoscopy, optical flow, duplicated image, duplicated frame.

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Authors: Ayad A. Abdulkafi, Shahir F. Nawaf, Mohammed K. Hussein, Ibrahim K. Sileh, Fouad A. Abdulkafi

Abstract:

Visible light communication (VLC) is a new approach of optical wireless communication proposed to support the congested radio frequency (RF) spectrum. VLC systems are combined with orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) to achieve high rate transmission and high spectral efficiency. In this paper, we investigate the Pilot-Assisted Channel Estimation for DC biased Optical OFDM (PACE-DCO-OFDM) systems to reduce the effects of the distortion on the transmitted signal. Least-square (LS) and linear minimum mean-squared error (LMMSE) estimators are implemented in MATLAB/Simulink to enhance the bit-error-rate (BER) of PACE-DCO-OFDM. Results show that DCO-OFDM system based on PACE scheme has achieved better BER performance compared to conventional system without pilot assisted channel estimation. Simulation results show that the proposed PACE-DCO-OFDM based on LMMSE algorithm can more accurately estimate the channel and achieves better BER performance when compared to the LS based PACE-DCO-OFDM and the traditional system without PACE. For the same signal to noise ratio (SNR) of 25 dB, the achieved BER is about 5×10^-4 for LMMSE-PACE and 4.2×10^-3 with LS-PACE while it is about 2×10^-1 for system without PACE scheme.

Keywords: Channel estimation, OFDM, pilot-assist, VLC.

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Authors: Wang Xue, Liu Dan, Liu Ying, Wang Molin, Qian Zhihong

Abstract:

A low-complexity, high-accurate frequency offset estimation for multi-band orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MB-OFDM) based ultra-wide band systems is presented regarding different carrier frequency offsets, different channel frequency responses, different preamble patterns in different bands. Utilizing a half-cycle Constant Amplitude Zero Auto Correlation (CAZAC) sequence as the preamble sequence, the estimator with a semi-cross contrast scheme between two successive OFDM symbols is proposed. The CRLB and complexity of the proposed algorithm are derived. Compared to the reference estimators, the proposed method achieves significantly less complexity (about 50%) for all preamble patterns of the MB-OFDM systems. The CRLBs turn out to be of well performance.

Keywords: CAZAC, Frequency Offset, Semi-cross Contrast, MB-OFDM, UWB

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Authors: Yusuf Yasa, Erkan Mese

Abstract:

This paper investigates the thermal issue of permanent magnet synchronous generator which is frequently used in direct drive gearless small-scale wind turbine applications. Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator (PMSG) is designed with 2.5 kW continuous and 6 kW peak power. Then considering generator geometry, mechanical design of wind turbine is performed. Thermal analysis and optimization is carried out considering all wind turbine components to reach realistic results. This issue is extremely important in research and development (R&D) process for wind turbine applications.

Keywords: Direct drive, gearless wind turbine, permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG), small-scale wind turbine, thermal management.

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Authors: I. Sarras, G. Gerakios, A. Diamantis, A. I. Dounis, G. P. Syrcos

Abstract:

Global Positioning System (GPS) technology is widely used today in the areas of geodesy and topography as well as in aeronautics mainly for military purposes. Due to the military usage of GPS, full access and use of this technology is being denied to the civilian user who must then work with a less accurate version. In this paper we focus on the estimation of the receiver coordinates ( X, Y, Z ) and its clock bias ( δtr ) of a fixed point based on pseudorange measurements of a single GPS receiver. Utilizing the instantaneous coordinates of just 4 satellites and their clock offsets, by taking into account the atmospheric delays, we are able to derive a set of pseudorange equations. The estimation of the four unknowns ( X, Y, Z , δtr ) is achieved by introducing an extended Kalman filter that processes, off-line, all the data collected from the receiver. Higher performance of position accuracy is attained by appropriate tuning of the filter noise parameters and by including other forms of biases.

Keywords: Extended Kalman filter, GPS, Pseudorange

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Authors: Z. Jannoo, B. W. Yap, N. Auchoybur, M. A. Lazim

Abstract:

The two common approaches to Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) are the Covariance-Based SEM (CB-SEM) and Partial Least Squares SEM (PLS-SEM). There is much debate on the performance of CB-SEM and PLS-SEM for small sample size and when distributions are nonnormal. This study evaluates the performance of CB-SEM and PLS-SEM under normality and nonnormality conditions via a simulation. Monte Carlo Simulation in R programming language was employed to generate data based on the theoretical model with one endogenous and four exogenous variables. Each latent variable has three indicators. For normal distributions, CB-SEM estimates were found to be inaccurate for small sample size while PLS-SEM could produce the path estimates. Meanwhile, for a larger sample size, CB-SEM estimates have lower variability compared to PLS-SEM. Under nonnormality, CB-SEM path estimates were inaccurate for small sample size. However, CB-SEM estimates are more accurate than those of PLS-SEM for sample size of 50 and above. The PLS-SEM estimates are not accurate unless sample size is very large.  

Keywords: CB-SEM, Monte Carlo simulation, Normality conditions, Nonnormality, PLS-SEM.

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Authors: Abir Hmida, Nihel Chekir, Ammar Ben Brahim

Abstract:

In the present paper, we investigate the feasibility of a thermal solar driven cold room in Gabes, southern region of Tunisia. The cold room of 109 m³ is refrigerated using an ammonia absorption machine. It is destined to preserve dates during the hot months of the year. A detailed study of the cold room leads previously to the estimation of the cooling load of the proposed storage room in the operating conditions of the region. The next step consists of the estimation of the required heat in the generator of the absorption machine to ensure the desired cold temperature. A thermodynamic analysis was accomplished and complete description of the system is determined. We propose, here, to provide the needed heat thermally from the sun by using vacuum tube collectors. We found that at least 21m² of solar collectors are necessary to accomplish the work of the solar cold room.

Keywords: Absorption, ammonia, cold room, solar collector, vacuum tube.

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Authors: N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

Abstract:

Number of breakdowns experienced by a machinery is a highly under-dispersed count random variable and its value can be attributed to the factors related to the mechanical input and output of that machinery. Analyzing such under-dispersed count observations as a function of the explanatory factors has been a challenging problem. In this paper, we aim at estimating the effects of various factors on the number of breakdowns experienced by a passenger car based on a study performed in Mauritius over a year. We remark that the number of passenger car breakdowns is highly under-dispersed. These data are therefore modelled and analyzed using Com-Poisson regression model. We use quasi-likelihood estimation approach to estimate the parameters of the model. Under-dispersion parameter is estimated to be 2.14 justifying the appropriateness of Com-Poisson distribution in modelling under-dispersed count responses recorded in this study.

Keywords: Breakdowns, under-dispersion, com-poisson, generalized linear model, quasi-likelihood estimation

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Authors: Audrey Heffron, Casserleigh, Jarrett Broder, Brad Skillman

Abstract:

Traditionally, terror groups have been formed by ideologically aligned actors who perceive a lack of options for achieving political or social change. However, terrorist attacks have been increasingly carried out by small groups of actors or lone individuals who may be only ideologically affiliated with larger, formal terrorist organizations. The formation of these groups represents the inverse of traditional organizational growth, whereby structural de-evolution within issue-based organizations leads to the formation of small, independent terror cells. Ideological franchising – the bypassing of formal affiliation to the “parent" organization – represents the de-evolution of traditional concepts of organizational structure in favor of an organic, independent, and focused unit. Traditional definitions of dark networks that are issue-based include focus on an identified goal, commitment to achieving this goal through unrestrained actions, and selection of symbolic targets. The next step in the de-evolution of small dark networks is the miniorganization, consisting of only a handful of actors working toward a common, violent goal. Information-sharing through social media platforms, coupled with civil liberties of democratic nations, provide the communication systems, access to information, and freedom of movement necessary for small dark networks to flourish without the aid of a parent organization. As attacks such as the 7/7 bombings demonstrate the effectiveness of small dark networks, terrorist actors will feel increasingly comfortable aligning with an ideology only, without formally organizing. The natural result of this de-evolving organization is the single actor event, where an individual seems to subscribe to a larger organization-s violent ideology with little or no formal ties.

Keywords: Organizational de-evolution, single actor, small group, terrorism.

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