Search results for: Long tail theory
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2942

Search results for: Long tail theory

2492 Improving Co-integration Trading Rule Profitability with Forecasts from an Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Paul Lajbcygier, Seng Lee

Abstract:

Co-integration models the long-term, equilibrium relationship of two or more related financial variables. Even if cointegration is found, in the short run, there may be deviations from the long run equilibrium relationship. The aim of this work is to forecast these deviations using neural networks and create a trading strategy based on them. A case study is used: co-integration residuals from Australian Bank Bill futures are forecast and traded using various exogenous input variables combined with neural networks. The choice of the optimal exogenous input variables chosen for each neural network, undertaken in previous work [1], is validated by comparing the forecasts and corresponding profitability of each, using a trading strategy.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, co-integration, forecasting, trading rule.

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2491 Use of Plant Antimicrobials for Food Preservation

Authors: Oladotun A. Fatoki, Deborah A. Onifade

Abstract:

Spoilage occurs in plant produce due to the action of field and storage microorganisms. The conditions of storage can also cause physiological spoilage. Various methods exist to ensure that these food substances maintain their quality long after harvesting. However, many of these methods either fail to keep the plant for the required period or predispose the plant to other spoilage risks. The major shortcoming posed by the use of many antimicrobials is the chemical residues it deposits in the food substance. The use of plants in preservation has been in use for a long period, though little understood then, it served its purposes. A better understanding of the roles of these plant parts in increasing the shelf life of farm produce has helped in the creation of more effective and safer means of pest and microbial control. This can be extended to plants that have not been used for these purposes initially. Microbial sources should also be investigated as these have provided cheaper sources of secondary metabolites.

Keywords: Antimicrobials, Food preservation, Phytochemicals

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2490 Effect of the Rise/Span Ratio of a Spherical Cap Shell on the Buckling Load

Authors: Peter N. Khakina, Mohammed I. Ali, Enchun Zhu, Huazhang Zhou, Baydaa H. Moula

Abstract:

Rise/span ratio has been mentioned as one of the reasons which contribute to the lower buckling load as compared to the Classical theory buckling load but this ratio has not been quantified in the equation. The purpose of this study was to determine a more realistic buckling load by quantifying the effect of the rise/span ratio because experiments have shown that the Classical theory overestimates the load. The buckling load equation was derived based on the theorem of work done and strain energy. Thereafter, finite element modeling and simulation using ABAQUS was done to determine the variables that determine the constant in the derived equation. The rise/span was found to be the determining factor of the constant in the buckling load equation. The derived buckling load correlates closely to the load obtained from experiments.

Keywords: Buckling, Finite element, Rise/span ratio, Sphericalcap

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2489 Being a Lay Partner in Jesuit Higher Education in the Philippines: A Grounded Theory Application

Authors: Janet B. Badong-Badilla

Abstract:

In Jesuit universities, laypersons, who come from the same or different faith backgrounds or traditions, are considered as collaborators in mission. The Jesuits themselves support the contributions of the lay partners in realizing the mission of the Society of Jesus and recognize the important role that they play in education. This study aims to investigate and generate particular notions and understandings of lived experiences of being a lay partner in Jesuit universities in the Philippines, particularly those involved in higher education. Using the qualitative approach as introduced by grounded theorist Barney Glaser, the lay partners’ concept of being a partner, as lived in higher education, is generated systematically from the data collected in the field primarily through in-depth interviews, field notes and observations. Glaser’s constant comparative method of analysis of data is used going through the phases of open coding, theoretical coding, and selective coding from memoing to theoretical sampling to sorting and then writing. In this study, Glaser’s grounded theory as a methodology will provide a substantial insight into and articulation of the layperson’s actual experience of being a partner of the Jesuits in education. Such articulation provides a phenomenological approach or framework to an understanding of the meaning and core characteristics of Jesuit-Lay partnership in Jesuit educational institution of higher learning in the country. This study is expected to provide a framework or model for lay partnership in academic institutions that have the same practice of having lay partners in mission.

Keywords: Grounded theory, Jesuit mission in higher education, lay partner, lived experience.

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2488 Evaluating the Nexus between Energy Demand and Economic Growth Using the VECM Approach: Case Study of Nigeria, China, and the United States

Authors: Rita U. Onolemhemhen, Saheed L. Bello, Akin P. Iwayemi

Abstract:

The effectiveness of energy demand policy depends on identifying the key drivers of energy demand both in the short-run and the long-run. This paper examines the influence of regional differences on the link between energy demand and other explanatory variables for Nigeria, China and USA using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. This study employed annual time series data on energy consumption (ED), real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (RGDP), real energy prices (P) and urbanization (N) for a thirty-six-year sample period. The utilized time-series data are sourced from World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI, 2016) and US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Results from the study, shows that all the independent variables (income, urbanization, and price) substantially affect the long-run energy consumption in Nigeria, USA and China, whereas, income has no significant effect on short-run energy demand in USA and Nigeria. In addition, the long-run effect of urbanization is relatively stronger in China. Urbanization is a key factor in energy demand, it therefore recommended that more attention should be given to the development of rural communities to reduce the inflow of migrants into urban communities which causes the increase in energy demand and energy excesses should be penalized while energy management should be incentivized.

Keywords: Economic growth, energy demand, income, real GDP, urbanization, VECM.

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2487 Appreciating, Interpreting and Understanding Posters via Levels of Visual Literacy

Authors: Mona Masood, Zakiah Zain

Abstract:

This study was conducted in Malaysia to discover how meaning and appreciation were construed among 35 Form Five students. Panofsky-s theory was employed to discover the levels of reasoning among students when various types of posters were displayed. The independent variables used were posters that carried explicit and implicit meanings; the moderating variable was students- visual literacy levels while the dependent variable was the implicit interpretation level. One-way ANOVA was applied for the data analysis. The data showed that before students were exposed to Panofsky-s theory, there were differences in thinking between boys, who did not think abstractly or implicit in comparison to girls. The study showed that students- visual literacy in posters depended on the use of visual texts and illustration. This paper discuss further on posters with text only have a tendency to be too abstract as opposed to posters with visuals plus text.

Keywords: explicit visual, implicit visual, visual interpretation, visual literacy

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2486 The Analogue of a Property of Pisot Numbers in Fields of Formal Power Series

Authors: Wiem Gadri

Abstract:

This study delves into the intriguing properties of Pisot and Salem numbers within the framework of formal Laurent series over finite fields, a domain where these numbers’ spectral characteristics, Λm(β) and lm(β), have yet to be fully explored. Utilizing a methodological approach that combines algebraic number theory with the analysis of power series, we extend the foundational work of Erdos, Joo, and Komornik to this setting. Our research uncovers bounds for lm(β), revealing how these depend on the degree of the minimal polynomial of β and thus offering a characterization of Pisot and Salem formal power series. The findings significantly contribute to our understanding of these numbers, highlighting their distribution and properties in the context of formal power series. This investigation not only bridges number theory with formal power series analysis but also sets the stage for further interdisciplinary research in these areas.

Keywords: Pisot numbers, Salem numbers, Formal power series, Minimal polynomial degree.

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2485 O-Functionalized CNT Mediated CO Hydro-Deoxygenation and Chain Growth

Authors: K. Mondal, S. Talapatra, M. Terrones, S. Pokhrel, C. Frizzel, B. Sumpter, V. Meunier, A. L. Elias

Abstract:

Worldwide energy independence is reliant on the ability to leverage locally available resources for fuel production. Recently, syngas produced through gasification of carbonaceous materials provided a gateway to a host of processes for the production of various chemicals including transportation fuels. The basis of the production of gasoline and diesel-like fuels is the Fischer Tropsch Synthesis (FTS) process: A catalyzed chemical reaction that converts a mixture of carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrogen (H2) into long chain hydrocarbons. Until now, it has been argued that only transition metal catalysts (usually Co or Fe) are active toward the CO hydrogenation and subsequent chain growth in the presence of hydrogen. In this paper, we demonstrate that carbon nanotube (CNT) surfaces are also capable of hydro-deoxygenating CO and producing long chain hydrocarbons similar to that obtained through the FTS but with orders of magnitude higher conversion efficiencies than the present state-of-the-art FTS catalysts. We have used advanced experimental tools such as XPS and microscopy techniques to characterize CNTs and identify C-O functional groups as the active sites for the enhanced catalytic activity. Furthermore, we have conducted quantum Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations to confirm that C-O groups (inherent on CNT surfaces) could indeed be catalytically active towards reduction of CO with H2, and capable of sustaining chain growth. The DFT calculations have shown that the kinetically and thermodynamically feasible route for CO insertion and hydro-deoxygenation are different from that on transition metal catalysts. Experiments on a continuous flow tubular reactor with various nearly metal-free CNTs have been carried out and the products have been analyzed. CNTs functionalized by various methods were evaluated under different conditions. Reactor tests revealed that the hydrogen pre-treatment reduced the activity of the catalysts to negligible levels. Without the pretreatment, the activity for CO conversion as found to be 7 µmol CO/g CNT/s. The O-functionalized samples showed very activities greater than 85 µmol CO/g CNT/s with nearly 100% conversion. Analyses show that CO hydro-deoxygenation occurred at the C-O/O-H functional groups. It was found that while the products were similar to FT products, differences in selectivities were observed which, in turn, was a result of a different catalytic mechanism. These findings now open a new paradigm for CNT-based hydrogenation catalysts and constitute a defining point for obtaining clean, earth abundant, alternative fuels through the use of efficient and renewable catalyst.

Keywords: CNT, CO hydro-deoxygenation, DFT, liquid fuels, XPS, XTL.

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2484 A Scenario Oriented Supplier Selection by Considering a Multi Tier Supplier Network

Authors: Mohammad Najafi Nobar, Bahareh Pourmehr, Mehdi Hajimirarab

Abstract:

One of the main processes of supply chain management is supplier selection process which its accurate implementation can dramatically increase company competitiveness. In presented article model developed based on the features of second tiers suppliers and four scenarios are predicted in order to help the decision maker (DM) in making up his/her mind. In addition two tiers of suppliers have been considered as a chain of suppliers. Then the proposed approach is solved by a method combined of concepts of fuzzy set theory (FST) and linear programming (LP) which has been nourished by real data extracted from an engineering design and supplying parts company. At the end results reveal the high importance of considering second tier suppliers features as criteria for selecting the best supplier.

Keywords: Supply Chain Management (SCM), SupplierSelection, Second Tier Supplier, Scenario Planning, Green Factor, Linear Programming, Fuzzy Set Theory

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2483 The Willingness of Business Students on T Innovative Behavior within the Theory of Planned Behavior

Authors: Mei L. Lin, Pi-Yueh Cheng

Abstract:

Classes on creativity, innovation, and entrepreneurship are becoming quite popular at universities throughout the world. However, it is not easy for business students to get involved to innovative activities, especially patent application. The present study investigated how to enhance business students- intention to participate in innovative activities and which incentives universities should consider. A 22-item research scale was used, and confirmatory factor analysis was conducted to verify its reliability and validity. Multiple regression and discriminant analyses were also conducted. The results demonstrate the effect of growth-need strength on innovative behavior and indicate that the theory of planned behavior can explain and predict business students- intention to participate in innovative activities. Additionally, the results suggest that applying our proposed model in practice would effectively strengthen business students- intentions to engage in innovative activities.

Keywords: discriminant analysis, growth need strength, innovative behavior, TPB model

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2482 Chaos Theory and Application in Foreign Exchange Rates vs. IRR (Iranian Rial)

Authors: M. A. Torkamani, S. Mahmoodzadeh, S. Pourroostaei, C. Lucas

Abstract:

Daily production of information and importance of the sequence of produced data in forecasting future performance of market causes analysis of data behavior to become a problem of analyzing time series. But time series that are very complicated, usually are random and as a result their changes considered being unpredictable. While these series might be products of a deterministic dynamical and nonlinear process (chaotic) and as a result be predictable. Point of Chaotic theory view, complicated systems have only chaotically face and as a result they seem to be unregulated and random, but it is possible that they abide by a specified math formula. In this article, with regard to test of strange attractor and biggest Lyapunov exponent probability of chaos on several foreign exchange rates vs. IRR (Iranian Rial) has been investigated. Results show that data in this market have complex chaotic behavior with big degree of freedom.

Keywords: Chaos, Exchange Rate, Nonlinear Models.

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2481 Paradigms Shift in Sport Sciences: Body's focus

Authors: Michele V. Carbinatto, Wagner Wey Moreira, Myrian Nunomura; Mariana H. C. Tsukamoto, VilmaLeni Nista-Piccolo

Abstract:

Sports Sciences has been historically supported by the positivism idea of science, especially by the mechanistic/reductionist and becomes a field that views experimentation and measurement as the mayor research domains. The disposition to simplify nature and the world by parts has fragmented and reduced the idea of bodyathletes as machine. In this paper we intent to re-think this perception lined by Complexity Theory. We come with the idea of athletes as a reflexive and active being (corporeity-body). Therefore, the construction of a training that considers the cultural, biological, psychological elements regarding the experience of the human corporal movements in a circumspect and responsible way could bring better chances of accomplishment. In the end, we hope to help coaches understand the intrinsic complexity of the body they are training, how better deal with it, and, in the field of a deep globalization among the different types of knowledge, to respect and accepted the peculiarities of knowledge that comprise this area.

Keywords: Sport science, body, complexity theory, corporeity.

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2480 Analyzing Periurban Fringe with Rough Set

Authors: Benedetto Manganelli, Beniamino Murgante

Abstract:

The distinction among urban, periurban and rural areas represents a classical example of uncertainty in land classification. Satellite images, geostatistical analysis and all kinds of spatial data are very useful in urban sprawl studies, but it is important to define precise rules in combining great amounts of data to build complex knowledge about territory. Rough Set theory may be a useful method to employ in this field. It represents a different mathematical approach to uncertainty by capturing the indiscernibility. Two different phenomena can be indiscernible in some contexts and classified in the same way when combining available information about them. This approach has been applied in a case of study, comparing the results achieved with both Map Algebra technique and Spatial Rough Set. The study case area, Potenza Province, is particularly suitable for the application of this theory, because it includes 100 municipalities with different number of inhabitants and morphologic features.

Keywords: Land Classification, Map Algebra, Periurban Fringe, Rough Set, Urban Planning, Urban Sprawl.

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2479 Layout Design Optimization of Spars under Multiple Load Cases of the High-Aspect-Ratio Wing

Authors: Yu Li, Jingwu He, Yuexi Xiong

Abstract:

The spar layout will affect the wing’s stiffness characteristics, and irrational spar arrangement will reduce the overall bending and twisting resistance capacity of the wing. In this paper, the active structural stiffness design theory is used to match the stiffness-center axis position and load-cases under the corresponding multiple flight conditions, in order to achieve better stiffness properties of the wing. The combination of active stiffness method and principle of stiffness distribution is proved to be reasonable supplying an initial reference for wing designing. The optimized layout of spars is eventually obtained, and the high-aspect-ratio wing will have better stiffness characteristics.

Keywords: Active structural stiffness design theory, high-aspect-ratio wing, flight load cases, layout of spars.

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2478 Global Chaos Synchronization of Identical and Nonidentical Chaotic Systems Using Only Two Nonlinear Controllers

Authors: Azizan Bin Saaban, Adyda Binti Ibrahim, Mohammad Shehzad, Israr Ahmad

Abstract:

In chaos synchronization, the main goal is to design such controller(s) that synchronizes the states of master and slave system asymptotically globally. This paper studied and investigated the synchronization problem of two identical Chen, and identical Tigan chaotic systems and two non-identical Chen and Tigan chaotic systems using Non-linear active control algorithm. In this study, based on Lyapunov stability theory and using non-linear active control algorithm, it has been shown that the proposed schemes have excellent transient performance using only two nonlinear controllers and have shown analytically as well as graphically that synchronization is asymptotically globally stable.

Keywords: Nonlinear Active Control, Chen and Tigan Chaotic systems, Lyapunov Stability theory, Synchronization.

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2477 Acute Myocardial Infarction Associated with Ingestion of Herbal Mixtures Containing Acetylcholinesterase Inhibitors: A Case Study

Authors: M. Hakami, A. Jammaly, I. Attafi, M. Oraiby, M. Jeraiby

Abstract:

We reviewed an unusual case of a 65-year-old male taking an herbal mixture containing compounds with anticholinesterase activity for a long period of time, presented with acute my myocardial infarction and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome followed by death. Clinically, there are findings correlated with anticholinesterase activity, such as bilateral miosis, diaphoresis, vomiting and fasciculation without a history of any toxic ingestion or exposure. Gas chromatography–mass spectrometry screening studies identified the presence of thymol, anethole in the herbal extract and butylated hydroxytoluene in the blood sample. Hence, with this case report, we intend to highlight the necessity of evaluating the long-term use of the herbal mixture.

Keywords: Cholinesterase inhibitors, thymol, anethole, butylated hydroxytoluene, cardiac toxicity and myocardial infarction.

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2476 Real Time Monitoring of Long Slender Shaft by Distributed-Lumped Modeling Techniques

Authors: Sina Babadi, K. M. Ebrahimi

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to determine the stress levels at the end of a long slender shaft such as a drilling assembly used in the oil or gas industry using a mathematical model in real-time. The torsional deflection experienced by this type of drilling shaft (about 4 KM length and 20 cm diameter hollow shaft with a thickness of 1 cm) can only be determined using a distributed modeling technique. The main objective of this project is to calculate angular velocity and torque at the end of the shaft by TLM method and also analyzing of the behavior of the system by transient response. The obtained result is compared with lumped modeling technique the importance of these results will be evident only after the mentioned comparison. Two systems have different transient responses and in this project because of the length of the shaft transient response is very important.

Keywords: Distributed Lumped modeling, Lumped modeling, Drill string, Angular Velocity, Torque.

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2475 Effects of Sprint Training on Athletic Performance Related Physiological, Cardiovascular, and Neuromuscular Parameters

Authors: Asim Cengiz, Dede Basturk, Hakan Ozalp

Abstract:

Practicing recurring resistance workout such as may cause changes in human muscle. These changes may be because combination if several factors determining physical fitness. Thus, it is important to identify these changes. Several studies were reviewed to investigate these changes. As a result, the changes included positive modifications in amplified citrate synthase (CS) maximal activity, increased capacity for pyruvate oxidation, improvement on molecular signaling on human performance, amplified resting muscle glycogen and whole GLUT4 protein content, better health outcomes such as enhancement in cardiorespiratory fitness. Sprint training also have numerous long long-term changes inhuman body such as better enzyme action, changes in muscle fiber and oxidative ability. This is important because SV is the critical factor influencing maximal cardiac output and therefore oxygen delivery and maximal aerobic power.

Keywords: Sprint, training, performance, exercise.

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2474 Strategic Risk Issues for Film Distributors of Hindi Film Industry in Mumbai: A Grounded Theory Approach

Authors: R. Dyondi, S. K. Jha

Abstract:

The purpose of the paper is to address the strategic risk issues surrounding Hindi film distribution in Mumbai for a film distributor, who acts as an entrepreneur when launching a product (movie) in the market (film territory).The paper undertakes a fundamental review of films and risk in the Hindi film industry and applies Grounded Theory technique to understand the complex phenomena of risk taking behavior of the film distributors (both independent and studios) in Mumbai. Rich in-depth interviews with distributors are coded to develop core categories through constant comparison leading to conceptualization of the phenomena of interest. This paper is a first-of-its-kind-attempt to understand risk behavior of a distributor, which is akin to entrepreneurial risk behavior under conditions of uncertainty.

Keywords: Entrepreneurial Risk Behavior, Film Distribution Strategy, Hindi Film Industry, Risk.

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2473 Classification and Resolving Urban Problems by Means of Fuzzy Approach

Authors: F. Habib, A. Shokoohi

Abstract:

Urban problems are problems of organized complexity. Thus, many models and scientific methods to resolve urban problems are failed. This study is concerned with proposing of a fuzzy system driven approach for classification and solving urban problems. The proposed study investigated mainly the selection of the inputs and outputs of urban systems for classification of urban problems. In this research, five categories of urban problems, respect to fuzzy system approach had been recognized: control, polytely, optimizing, open and decision making problems. Grounded Theory techniques were then applied to analyze the data and develop new solving method for each category. The findings indicate that the fuzzy system methods are powerful processes and analytic tools for helping planners to resolve urban complex problems. These tools can be successful where as others have failed because both incorporate or address uncertainty and risk; complexity and systems interacting with other systems.

Keywords: Classification, complexity, Fuzzy theory, urban problems.

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2472 3D Dynamic Modeling of Transition Zones

Authors: Edina Koch, Péter Hudacsek

Abstract:

In railways transition zone is present at the boundaries of zones with different stiffness. When a train rides from an embankment onto a stiff structure, such as a bridge, tunnel or culvert, an abrupt change in the support stiffness occurs possibly inducing differential settlements. This in long term can yield to the degradation of the tracks and foundations in the transition zones. A number of techniques have been proposed or implemented to provide gradual stiffness transition at the problem zones, such as methods to ensure gradually changing pad stiffness, application of long sleepers or installation of auxiliary rails in the transition zone. Aim of the research presented in this paper is to analyze the 3D and the dynamic effects induced by the passing train over an area where significant difference in the support stiffness exists. The effects were analyzed for different arrangements associated with certain differential settlement mitigation strategies of the transition zones.

Keywords: Culvert, dynamic load, HS small model, railway transition zone.

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2471 Distributed Coverage Control by Robot Networks in Unknown Environments Using a Modified EM Algorithm

Authors: Mohammadhosein Hasanbeig, Lacra Pavel

Abstract:

In this paper, we study a distributed control algorithm for the problem of unknown area coverage by a network of robots. The coverage objective is to locate a set of targets in the area and to minimize the robots’ energy consumption. The robots have no prior knowledge about the location and also about the number of the targets in the area. One efficient approach that can be used to relax the robots’ lack of knowledge is to incorporate an auxiliary learning algorithm into the control scheme. A learning algorithm actually allows the robots to explore and study the unknown environment and to eventually overcome their lack of knowledge. The control algorithm itself is modeled based on game theory where the network of the robots use their collective information to play a non-cooperative potential game. The algorithm is tested via simulations to verify its performance and adaptability.

Keywords: Distributed control, game theory, multi-agent learning, reinforcement learning.

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2470 A New Method for Estimating the Mass Recession Rate for Ablator Systems

Authors: Bianca A. Szasz, Keiichi Okuyama

Abstract:

As the human race will continue to explore the space by creating new space transportation means and sending them to other planets, the enhance of atmospheric reentry study is crucial. In this context, an analysis of mass recession rate of ablative materials for thermal shields of reentry spacecrafts is important to be carried out. The paper describes a new estimation method for calculating the mass recession of an ablator system made of carbon fiber reinforced plastic materials. This method is based on Arrhenius equation for low temperatures and, for high temperatures, on a theory applied for the recession phenomenon of carbon fiber reinforced plastic materials, theory which takes into account the presence of the resin inside the materials. The space mission of USERS spacecraft is considered as a case study.

Keywords: Ablator system, mass recession, spacecraft, atmospheric reentry.

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2469 On Methodologies for Analysing Sickness Absence Data: An Insight into a New Method

Authors: Xiaoshu Lu, Päivi Leino-Arjas, Kustaa Piha, Akseli Aittomäki, Peppiina Saastamoinen, Ossi Rahkonen, Eero Lahelma

Abstract:

Sickness absence represents a major economic and social issue. Analysis of sick leave data is a recurrent challenge to analysts because of the complexity of the data structure which is often time dependent, highly skewed and clumped at zero. Ignoring these features to make statistical inference is likely to be inefficient and misguided. Traditional approaches do not address these problems. In this study, we discuss model methodologies in terms of statistical techniques for addressing the difficulties with sick leave data. We also introduce and demonstrate a new method by performing a longitudinal assessment of long-term absenteeism using a large registration dataset as a working example available from the Helsinki Health Study for municipal employees from Finland during the period of 1990-1999. We present a comparative study on model selection and a critical analysis of the temporal trends, the occurrence and degree of long-term sickness absences among municipal employees. The strengths of this working example include the large sample size over a long follow-up period providing strong evidence in supporting of the new model. Our main goal is to propose a way to select an appropriate model and to introduce a new methodology for analysing sickness absence data as well as to demonstrate model applicability to complicated longitudinal data.

Keywords: Sickness absence, longitudinal data, methodologies, mix-distribution model.

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2468 A Wind Farm Reduced Order Model Using Integral Manifold Theory

Authors: M. Sedighizadeh, A. Rezazadeh

Abstract:

Due to the increasing penetration of wind energy, it is necessary to possess design tools that are able to simulate the impact of these installations in utility grids. In order to provide a net contribution to this issue a detailed wind park model has been developed and is briefly presented. However, the computational costs associated with the performance of such a detailed model in describing the behavior of a wind park composed by a considerable number of units may render its practical application very difficult. To overcome this problem integral manifolds theory has been applied to reduce the order of the detailed wind park model, and therefore create the conditions for the development of a dynamic equivalent which is able to retain the relevant dynamics with respect to the existing a.c. system. In this paper integral manifold method has been introduced for order reduction. Simulation results of the proposed method represents that integral manifold method results fit the detailed model results with a higher precision than singular perturbation method.

Keywords: Wind, Reduced Order, Integral Manifold.

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2467 An Identification Method of Geological Boundary Using Elastic Waves

Authors: Masamitsu Chikaraishi, Mutsuto Kawahara

Abstract:

This paper focuses on a technique for identifying the geological boundary of the ground strata in front of a tunnel excavation site using the first order adjoint method based on the optimal control theory. The geological boundary is defined as the boundary which is different layers of elastic modulus. At tunnel excavations, it is important to presume the ground situation ahead of the cutting face beforehand. Excavating into weak strata or fault fracture zones may cause extension of the construction work and human suffering. A theory for determining the geological boundary of the ground in a numerical manner is investigated, employing excavating blasts and its vibration waves as the observation references. According to the optimal control theory, the performance function described by the square sum of the residuals between computed and observed velocities is minimized. The boundary layer is determined by minimizing the performance function. The elastic analysis governed by the Navier equation is carried out, assuming the ground as an elastic body with linear viscous damping. To identify the boundary, the gradient of the performance function with respect to the geological boundary can be calculated using the adjoint equation. The weighed gradient method is effectively applied to the minimization algorithm. To solve the governing and adjoint equations, the Galerkin finite element method and the average acceleration method are employed for the spatial and temporal discretizations, respectively. Based on the method presented in this paper, the different boundary of three strata can be identified. For the numerical studies, the Suemune tunnel excavation site is employed. At first, the blasting force is identified in order to perform the accuracy improvement of analysis. We identify the geological boundary after the estimation of blasting force. With this identification procedure, the numerical analysis results which almost correspond with the observation data were provided.

Keywords: Parameter identification, finite element method, average acceleration method, first order adjoint equation method, weighted gradient method, geological boundary, navier equation, optimal control theory.

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2466 Effect of Political and Social Context in Libya on Accounting Information System to Meet Development Needs

Authors: Bubaker F. Shareia, Almuetaz R. Boubakr

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to show how Libya’s legal, economic, political, social, and cultural systems have shaped Libyan development. This will provide a background to develop an understanding of the current role of the accounting information system in Libya and the challenges facing the design of the aeronautical information system to meet the development needs of Libya. Our knowledge of the unified economic operating systems of the world paves the way for the economic development of every developing country. In order to achieve this understanding, every developing country should be provided with a high-efficiency communications system in order to be able to interact globally. From the point of view of the theory of globalization, Libya's understanding of its socio-economic and political systems is vital in order to be able to adopt and apply accounting techniques that will assist in the economic development of Libya.

Keywords: Accounting, economic development, globalisation theory, information system.

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2465 A Machine Learning Approach for Earthquake Prediction in Various Zones Based on Solar Activity

Authors: Viacheslav Shkuratskyy, Aminu Bello Usman, Michael O’Dea, Mujeeb Ur Rehman, Saifur Rahman Sabuj

Abstract:

This paper examines relationships between solar activity and earthquakes, it applied machine learning techniques: K-nearest neighbour, support vector regression, random forest regression, and long short-term memory network. Data from the SILSO World Data Center, the NOAA National Center, the GOES satellite, NASA OMNIWeb, and the United States Geological Survey were used for the experiment. The 23rd and 24th solar cycles, daily sunspot number, solar wind velocity, proton density, and proton temperature were all included in the dataset. The study also examined sunspots, solar wind, and solar flares, which all reflect solar activity, and earthquake frequency distribution by magnitude and depth. The findings showed that the long short-term memory network model predicts earthquakes more correctly than the other models applied in the study, and solar activity is more likely to effect earthquakes of lower magnitude and shallow depth than earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or larger with intermediate depth and deep depth

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Keywords: K-Nearest Neighbour, Support Vector Regression, Random Forest Regression, Long Short-Term Memory Network, earthquakes, solar activity, sunspot number, solar wind, solar flares.

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2464 Vibration of Functionally Graded Cylindrical Shells under Effects Clamped-Clamped Boundary Conditions

Authors: M.R.Alinaghizadehand, M.R.Isvandzibaei

Abstract:

Study of the vibration cylindrical shells made of a functionally gradient material (FGM) composed of stainless steel and nickel is important. Material properties are graded in the thickness direction of the shell according to volume fraction power law distribution. The objective is to study the natural frequencies, the influence of constituent volume fractions and the effects of boundary conditions on the natural frequencies of the FG cylindrical shell. The study is carried out using third order shear deformation shell theory. The governing equations of motion of FG cylindrical shells are derived based on shear deformation theory. Results are presented on the frequency characteristics, influence of constituent volume fractions and the effects of clampedclamped boundary conditions.

Keywords: Vibration, FGM, Cylindrical shell, Hamilton's principle.

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2463 The Aspect of the Human Bias in Decision Making within Quality Management Systems & LEAN Theory

Authors: Adriana Ávila Zúñiga Nordfjeld

Abstract:

This paper provides a literature review to document the state of the art with respect to handling “human bias” in decision making within the established quality management systems (QMS) and LEAN theory, in the context of shipbuilding. Previous research shows that in shipbuilding there is a huge deviation from the planned man-hours under the project management to the actual man-hours used because of errors in planning and reworks caused by human bias in the information flows, among others. This reduces the efficiency, and increases operational costs. Thus, the research question is how QMS and LEAN handle biases. The findings show the gap in studying the integration of methods to handle human bias in decision making into QMS and lean, not only within shipbuilding, but in general. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed for researchers and practitioners in the areas of decision making, QMS and LEAN, and future research is suggested.

Keywords: Human bias, decision making, LEAN Shipbuilding, quality management systems.

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