Search results for: component; case based reasoning (CBR)

Authors: Andr´as R¨ovid, Takeshi Hashimoto

Abstract:

The paper focuses on the problem of the point correspondence matching in stereo images. The proposed matching algorithm is based on the combination of simpler methods such as normalized sum of squared differences (NSSD) and a more complex phase correlation based approach, by considering the noise and other factors, as well. The speed of NSSD and the preciseness of the phase correlation together yield an efficient approach to find the best candidate point with sub-pixel accuracy in stereo image pairs. The task of the NSSD in this case is to approach the candidate pixel roughly. Afterwards the location of the candidate is refined by an enhanced phase correlation based method which in contrast to the NSSD has to run only once for each selected pixel.

Keywords: Stereo matching, Sub-pixel accuracy, phase correlation, SVD, NSSD.

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Authors: Anil Ranjitbhai Patel, Clement John Shaji, Peter Liggesmeyer

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Safety and security of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) is a growing concern, first, due to the increased number of safety-critical functions taken over by automotive embedded systems; second, due to the increased exposure of the software-intensive systems to potential attackers; third, due to dynamic interaction in an uncertain and unknown environment at runtime which results in changed functional and non-functional properties of the system. Frequently occurring environmental uncertainties, random component failures, and compromise security of the AVs might result in hazardous events, sometimes even in an accident, if left undetected. Beyond these technical issues, we argue that the safety and security of AVs against accidental and deliberate faults are poorly understood and rarely implemented. One possible way to overcome this is through a well-known diversity approach. As an effective approach to increase safety and security, diversity has been widely used in the aviation, railway, and aerospace industries. Thus, paper proposes fault-tolerance by diversity model taking into consideration the mitigation of accidental and deliberate faults by application of structure and variant redundancy. The model can be used to design the AVs with various types of diversity in hardware and software-based multi-version system. The paper evaluates the presented approach by employing an example from adaptive cruise control, followed by discussing the case study with initial findings.

Keywords: Autonomous vehicles, diversity, fault-tolerance, adaptive cruise control, safety, security.

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Authors: C. Bay, A. Mahr, H. Groneberg, F. Döpper

Abstract:

Additive Manufacturing processes are becoming increasingly established in the industry for the economic production of complex prototypes and functional components. Laser beam melting (LBM), the most frequently used Additive Manufacturing technology for metal parts, has been gaining in industrial importance for several years. The LBM process chain – from material storage to machine set-up and component post-processing – requires many manual operations. These steps often depend on the manufactured component and are therefore not standardized. These operations are often not performed in a standardized manner, but depend on the experience of the machine operator, e.g., levelling of the build plate and adjusting the first powder layer in the LBM machine. This lack of standardization limits the reproducibility of the component quality. When processing metal powders with inhalable and alveolar particle fractions, the machine operator is at high risk due to the high reactivity and the toxic (e.g., carcinogenic) effect of the various metal powders. Faulty execution of the operation or unintentional omission of safety-relevant steps can impair the health of the machine operator. In this paper, all the steps of the LBM process chain are first analysed in terms of their influence on the two aforementioned challenges: reproducibility and work safety. Standardization to avoid errors increases the reproducibility of component quality as well as the adherence to and correct execution of safety-relevant operations. The corresponding lean method 5S will therefore be applied, in order to develop approaches in the form of recommended actions that standardize the work processes. These approaches will then be evaluated in terms of ease of implementation and their potential for improving reproducibility and work safety. The analysis and evaluation showed that sorting tools and spare parts as well as standardizing the workflow are likely to increase reproducibility. Organizing the operational steps and production environment decreases the hazards of material handling and consequently improves work safety.

Keywords: Additive manufacturing, lean production, reproducibility, work safety.

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Authors: Pirada Techaratpong

Abstract:

This research aims to study value-creation process of producing monk-s bowls, Thai traditional handicrafts, which is facing problems in adapting to the changing society. It also aims to identify problems and obstacles to value creation. This research is based on a case study of monk-s bowl manufactures from Ban-Baat Village, Bangkok. The conceptual framework is based on the model of value chain to analyze the process. The research methodology is qualitative. This research found that the value-creation process of monk-s bowls consists of eight activities contributing to adding value to the products and increasing profits to the producers in return. Five major problems and obstacles are found. The research suggests that these problems and obstacles limit the manufacturers- potential for creating more valued product and lead to business stagnation. These problems should be addressed and solved with collaboration among the government, the private sector and the manufacturers.

Keywords: Craft manufacturing, problems and obstacles, value chain, value creation.

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Authors: Ali Shariq Imran, M. Younus Javed, Naveed Sarfraz Khattak

Abstract:

This paper presents a novel method for data hiding based on neighborhood pixels information to calculate the number of bits that can be used for substitution and modified Least Significant Bits technique for data embedding. The modified solution is independent of the nature of the data to be hidden and gives correct results along with un-noticeable image degradation. The technique, to find the number of bits that can be used for data hiding, uses the green component of the image as it is less sensitive to human eye and thus it is totally impossible for human eye to predict whether the image is encrypted or not. The application further encrypts the data using a custom designed algorithm before embedding bits into image for further security. The overall process consists of three main modules namely embedding, encryption and extraction cm.

Keywords: Data hiding, image processing, information security, stagonography.

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Authors: Fahad Shahbaz Khan, Rao Muhammad Anwer, Olof Torgersson, Göran Falkman

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Data mining has been used very frequently to extract hidden information from large databases. This paper suggests the use of decision trees for continuously extracting the clinical reasoning in the form of medical expert-s actions that is inherent in large number of EMRs (Electronic Medical records). In this way the extracted data could be used to teach students of oral medicine a number of orderly processes for dealing with patients who represent with different problems within the practice context over time.

Keywords: Data mining, Oral Medicine, Decision Trees, WEKA.

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Authors: L. Hermanns, M.A. Santoyo, L. E. Quirós, J. Vega, J. M. Gaspar-Escribano, B. Benito

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We study the dynamic response of a wind turbine structure subjected to theoretical seismic motions, taking into account the rotational component of ground shaking. Models are generated for a shallow moderate crustal earthquake in the Madrid Region (Spain). Synthetic translational and rotational time histories are computed using the Discrete Wavenumber Method, assuming a point source and a horizontal layered earth structure. These are used to analyze the dynamic response of a wind turbine, represented by a simple finite element model. Von Mises stress values at different heights of the tower are used to study the dynamical structural response to a set of synthetic ground motion time histories

Keywords: Synthetic seismograms, rotations, wind turbine, dynamic structural response

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Authors: Mikel Alonso López, María Francisca Blasco López, Víctor Molero Ayala

Abstract:

The present study explains the somatic marker theory of Antonio Damasio, which indicates that when making a decision, the stored or possible future scenarios (future memory) images allow people to feel for a moment what would happen when they make a choice, and how this is emotionally marked. This process can be conscious or unconscious. The development of new Neuromarketing techniques such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), carries a greater understanding of how the brain functions and consumer behavior. In the results observed in different studies using fMRI, the evidence suggests that the somatic marker and future memories influence the decision-making process, adding a positive or negative emotional component to the options. This would mean that all decisions would involve a present emotional component, with a rational cost-benefit analysis that can be performed later.

Keywords: Emotions, decision making, somatic marker, consumer´s brain.

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Authors: N. Valliammal, S.N. Geethalakshmi

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This paper describes an optimal approach for feature subset selection to classify the leaves based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Kernel Based Principle Component Analysis (KPCA). Due to high complexity in the selection of the optimal features, the classification has become a critical task to analyse the leaf image data. Initially the shape, texture and colour features are extracted from the leaf images. These extracted features are optimized through the separate functioning of GA and KPCA. This approach performs an intersection operation over the subsets obtained from the optimization process. Finally, the most common matching subset is forwarded to train the Support Vector Machine (SVM). Our experimental results successfully prove that the application of GA and KPCA for feature subset selection using SVM as a classifier is computationally effective and improves the accuracy of the classifier.

Keywords: Optimization, Feature extraction, Feature subset, Classification, GA, KPCA, SVM and Computation

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Authors: Takahiro Nishigaki, Katsumi Nitta, Takashi Onoda

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In this paper, we present a method of applying Independent Topic Analysis (ITA) to increasing the number of document data. The number of document data has been increasing since the spread of the Internet. ITA was presented as one method to analyze the document data. ITA is a method for extracting the independent topics from the document data by using the Independent Component Analysis (ICA). ICA is a technique in the signal processing; however, it is difficult to apply the ITA to increasing number of document data. Because ITA must use the all document data so temporal and spatial cost is very high. Therefore, we present Incremental ITA which extracts the independent topics from increasing number of document data. Incremental ITA is a method of updating the independent topics when the document data is added after extracted the independent topics from a just previous the data. In addition, Incremental ITA updates the independent topics when the document data is added. And we show the result applied Incremental ITA to benchmark datasets.

Keywords: Text mining, topic extraction, independent, incremental, independent component analysis.

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Authors: Jaramillo G. Maria Luisa, Turriago H. Álvaro, Thoene Ulf

Abstract:

Financial inclusion has become a crucially important factor in debates on economic inequality posing challenges to the financial systems of countries around the world. Nowadays governments and banks are concerned about creating products that allow access to wide sectors of the population. The creation of banking products by the financial sector for people with low incomes tends to lead to improvements in the quality of life of vulnerable parts of the population. In countries with notable social and economic inequalities, financial inclusion is a key aspect for equitable economic growth. This study is based on the case of Colombia, which is a country with a strong record of economic growth over the past decade. Nevertheless, corruption, unemployment, and poverty contribute to uncertainty regarding the country’s future growth prospects. This study wants to explain the situation of financial exclusion and financial inclusion with respect to the Colombian case. Financial inclusion is going to be studied from the perspective of social innovation.

Keywords: Colombia, financial exclusion, financial inclusion, social innovation.

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Authors: M.Heenaye-Mamode Khan, R.K. Subramanian, N. A. Mamode Khan

Abstract:

The quest of providing more secure identification system has led to a rise in developing biometric systems. Dorsal hand vein pattern is an emerging biometric which has attracted the attention of many researchers, of late. Different approaches have been used to extract the vein pattern and match them. In this work, Principle Component Analysis (PCA) which is a method that has been successfully applied on human faces and hand geometry is applied on the dorsal hand vein pattern. PCA has been used to obtain eigenveins which is a low dimensional representation of vein pattern features. Low cost CCD cameras were used to obtain the vein images. The extraction of the vein pattern was obtained by applying morphology. We have applied noise reduction filters to enhance the vein patterns. The system has been successfully tested on a database of 200 images using a threshold value of 0.9. The results obtained are encouraging.

Keywords: Biometric, Dorsal vein pattern, PCA.

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Authors: Hazem M. El-Bakry

Abstract:

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has many different important applications especially in pattern detection such as face detection / recognition. Therefore, for real time applications, the response time is required to be as small as possible. In this paper, new implementation of PCA for fast face detection is presented. Such new implementation is designed based on cross correlation in the frequency domain between the input image and eigenvectors (weights). Simulation results show that the proposed implementation of PCA is faster than conventional one.

Keywords: Fast Face Detection, PCA, Cross Correlation, Frequency Domain

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Authors: G.H. Farrahi, S.A. Faghidian, D.J. Smith

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A thin layer on the component surface can be found with high tensile residual stresses, due to turning operations, which can dangerously affect the fatigue performance of the component. In this paper an analytical approach is presented to reconstruct the residual stress field from a limited incomplete set of measurements. Airy stress function is used as the primary unknown to directly solve the equilibrium equations and satisfying the boundary conditions. In this new method there exists the flexibility to impose the physical conditions that govern the behavior of residual stress to achieve a meaningful complete stress field. The analysis is also coupled to a least squares approximation and a regularization method to provide stability of the inverse problem. The power of this new method is then demonstrated by analyzing some experimental measurements and achieving a good agreement between the model prediction and the results obtained from residual stress measurement.

Keywords: Residual stress, Limited measurements, Inverse problems, Turning process.

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Authors: Xinjian Kou, Linlin Li, Yongju Zhou, Jimian Song

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We introduce the redundancy matrix that expresses clearly the geometrical/topological configuration of the structure. With the matrix, the redundancy of the structure is resolved into redundant components and assigned to each member or rigid joint. The values of the diagonal elements in the matrix indicates the importance of the corresponding members or rigid joints, and the geometrically correlations can be shown with the non-diagonal elements. If a member or rigid joint failures, reassignment of the redundant components can be calculated with the recursive method given in the paper. By combining the indexes of reliability and redundancy components, we define an index concerning the structural robustness. To further explain the properties of the redundancy matrix, we cited several examples of statically indeterminate structures, including two trusses and a rigid frame. With the examples, some simple results and the properties of the matrix are discussed. The examples also illustrate that the redundancy matrix and the relevant concepts are valuable in structural safety analysis.

Keywords: Structural robustness, structural reliability, redundancy component, redundancy matrix.

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Authors: Liang Zhao, Guangwen Wang, Guichang Liu

Abstract:

Constant potometer is an important component of pipeline anti-corrosion systems in the chemical industry. Based on Internet of Things (IoT) technology, Programmable Logic Controller (PLC) technology and database technology, this paper developed a set of a constant potometer remote monitoring management system. The remote monitoring and remote adjustment of the working status of the constant potometer are realized. The system has real-time data display, historical data query, alarm push management, user permission management, and supporting Web access and mobile client application (APP) access. The actual engineering project test results show the stability of the system, which can be widely used in cathodic protection systems.

Keywords: Internet of Things, pipe corrosion protection, potentiostat, remote monitoring.

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Authors: Hanadi Mubarak AL-Mubaraki, Michael Busler

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Innovation is the process of making changes, differences, and novelties in the products and services, adding values and business practices to create economic and social benefit. The purpose of this paper is to identify the strengths and weaknesses of innovation programs in developed and developing countries. We used a mixed-methods approach, quantitative as survey and qualitative as a multi-case study to examine innovation best practices in developed and developing countries. In addition, four case studies of innovation organisations based on the best practices and successful implementation in the developed and developing countries are selected for examination. The research findings provide guidance, suggestions, and recommendations for future implementation in developed and developing countries for practitioners such as policy makers, governments, funded organizations, and strategic institutions. In conclusion, innovation programs are vital tools for economic growth, knowledge, and technology transfer based on the several indicators such as creativity, entrepreneurship, role of government, role of university, strategic focus, new products, survival rate, job creation, start-up companies, and number of patents. The authors aim to conduct future research which will include a comparative study of innovation case studies between developed and developing countries for policy implications worldwide. The originality of this study makes a contribution to the current literature about the innovation best practice in developed and developing countries.

Keywords: Economic development, entrepreneurship, developed countries, innovation program.

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Authors: Mohammed Salahat, Steve Wade, Izhar Ul-Haq

Abstract:

This paper proposes a “soft systems" approach to domain-driven design of computer-based information systems. We propose a systemic framework combining techniques from Soft Systems Methodology (SSM), the Unified Modelling Language (UML), and an implementation pattern known as “Naked Objects". We have used this framework in action research projects that have involved the investigation and modelling of business processes using object-oriented domain models and the implementation of software systems based on those domain models. Within the proposed framework, Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is used as a guiding methodology to explore the problem situation and to generate a ubiquitous language (soft language) which can be used as the basis for developing an object-oriented domain model. The domain model is further developed using techniques based on the UML and is implemented in software following the “Naked Objects" implementation pattern. We argue that there are advantages from combining and using techniques from different methodologies in this way. The proposed systemic framework is overviewed and justified as multimethodologyusing Mingers multimethodology ideas. This multimethodology approach is being evaluated through a series of action research projects based on real-world case studies. A Peer-Tutoring case study is presented here as a sample of the framework evaluation process

Keywords: SSM, UML, Domain-Driven Design, Soft Domain-Driven Design, Naked Objects, Soft Languag e.

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Authors: Daniel Stamate

Abstract:

The paper presents an approach for handling uncertain information in deductive databases using multivalued logics. Uncertainty means that database facts may be assigned logical values other than the conventional ones - true and false. The logical values represent various degrees of truth, which may be combined and propagated by applying the database rules. A corresponding multivalued database semantics is defined. We show that it extends successful conventional semantics as the well-founded semantics, and has a polynomial time data complexity.

Keywords: Reasoning under uncertainty, multivalued logics, deductive databases, logic programs, multivalued semantics.

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Authors: Motlhale Judicial Sebatana, Washington Takawira Dudu

Abstract:

This study investigated how one beginner Physical Sciences teacher implemented Problem-Based Learning (PBL) strategy in the teaching and learning of Particulate Nature of Matter (PNM) in the Grade 10 classroom. PBL was implemented to explore how it can promote a 21st-century skill of creativity and enhance understanding of PNM. This study was guided by theoretical framework of Social Interdependence Theory (SIT). This exploratory qualitative case study was conveniently conducted in the North West province, South Africa, where one Physical Sciences teacher was purposefully sampled. A self-developed open-ended questionnaire, portfolio and individual semi-structured interview were used as the methods of generating data for this study. The results show that the participant of this study had no prior knowledge of utilising PBL in the teaching and learning of PNM before the Teacher Professional Development (TPD) programme, no knowledge of creativity as a 21st-century skill, and a successful PBL implementation post TPD to promote creativity.

Keywords: Beginner teachers, physical sciences teachers, problem-based learning, 21st-century skills, creativity skill, particulate nature of matter.

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Authors: Zarita Zainuddin, Ong Pauline, C. Ardil

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Diabetes Mellitus is a chronic metabolic disorder, where the improper management of the blood glucose level in the diabetic patients will lead to the risk of heart attack, kidney disease and renal failure. This paper attempts to enhance the diagnostic accuracy of the advancing blood glucose levels of the diabetic patients, by combining principal component analysis and wavelet neural network. The proposed system makes separate blood glucose prediction in the morning, afternoon, evening and night intervals, using dataset from one patient covering a period of 77 days. Comparisons of the diagnostic accuracy with other neural network models, which use the same dataset are made. The comparison results showed overall improved accuracy, which indicates the effectiveness of this proposed system.

Keywords: Diabetes Mellitus, principal component analysis, time-series, wavelet neural network.

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Authors: R. Arulmurugan, P. Sengottuvelan

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Object detection using Wavelet Neural Network (WNN) plays a major contribution in the analysis of image processing. Existing cluster-based algorithm for co-saliency object detection performs the work on the multiple images. The co-saliency detection results are not desirable to handle the multi scale image objects in WNN. Existing Super Resolution (SR) scheme for landmark images identifies the corresponding regions in the images and reduces the mismatching rate. But the Structure-aware matching criterion is not paying attention to detect multiple regions in SR images and fail to enhance the result percentage of object detection. To detect the objects in the high-resolution remote sensing images, Tagged Grid Matching (TGM) technique is proposed in this paper. TGM technique consists of the three main components such as object determination, object searching and object verification in WNN. Initially, object determination in TGM technique specifies the position and size of objects in the current image. The specification of the position and size using the hierarchical grid easily determines the multiple objects. Second component, object searching in TGM technique is carried out using the cross-point searching. The cross out searching point of the objects is selected to faster the searching process and reduces the detection time. Final component performs the object verification process in TGM technique for identifying (i.e.,) detecting the dissimilarity of objects in the current frame. The verification process matches the search result grid points with the stored grid points to easily detect the objects using the Gabor wavelet Transform. The implementation of TGM technique offers a significant improvement on the multi-object detection rate, processing time, precision factor and detection accuracy level.

Keywords: Object Detection, Cross-point Searching, Wavelet Neural Network, Object Determination, Gabor Wavelet Transform, Tagged Grid Matching.

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Authors: András Barta, István Vajk

Abstract:

In pattern recognition applications the low level segmentation and the high level object recognition are generally considered as two separate steps. The paper presents a method that bridges the gap between the low and the high level object recognition. It is based on a Bayesian network representation and network propagation algorithm. At the low level it uses hierarchical structure of quadratic spline wavelet image bases. The method is demonstrated for a simple circuit diagram component identification problem.

Keywords: Object recognition, Bayesian network, Wavelets, Document processing.

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Authors: Raluca Ionela Maxim

Abstract:

Designing a gender responsive Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) mobile game based learning solution (mGBL) is a challenge in terms of content, gamification level and equal engagement of girls and boys. The goal of this case study was to research and create a high-fidelity prototype design of a mobile game that contains role-models as avatars that guide and expose girls and boys to STEM learning content. For this research purpose it was applied the methodology of design sprint with five-phase process that combines design thinking principles. The technique of this methodology comprises smart interviews with STEM experts, mind-map creation, sketching, prototyping and usability testing of the interactive prototype of the gender responsive STEM mGBL. The results have shown that the effect of the avatar/role model had a positive impact. Therefore, by exposing students (boys and girls) to STEM role models in an mGBL tool is helpful for the decreasing of the gender inequalities in STEM fields.

Keywords: Design thinking, design sprint, gender-responsive STEM education, mobile game based learning, role-models.

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Authors: Evgeniy Burlutskiy

Abstract:

The paper presents a one-dimensional transient mathematical model of compressible thermal multi-component gas mixture flows in pipes. The set of the mass, momentum and enthalpy conservation equations for gas phase is solved. Thermo-physical properties of multi-component gas mixture are calculated by solving the Equation of State (EOS) model. The Soave-Redlich-Kwong (SRK-EOS) model is chosen. Gas mixture viscosity is calculated on the basis of the Lee-Gonzales-Eakin (LGE) correlation. Numerical analysis on rapid decompression in conventional dry gases is performed by using the proposed mathematical model. The model is validated on measured values of the decompression wave speed in dry natural gas mixtures. All predictions show excellent agreement with the experimental data at high and low pressure. The presented model predicts the decompression in dry natural gas mixtures much better than GASDECOM and OLGA codes, which are the most frequently-used codes in oil and gas pipeline transport service.

Keywords: Mathematical model, Rapid Gas Decompression

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Authors: Cencen Li, Shaoying Liu, Shin Nakajima

Abstract:

Specification-based testing enables us to detect errors in the implementation of functions defined in given specifications. Its effectiveness in achieving high path coverage and efficiency in generating test cases are always major concerns of testers. The automatic test cases generation approach based on formal specifications proposed by Liu and Nakajima is aimed at ensuring high effectiveness and efficiency, but this approach has not been empirically assessed. In this paper, we present an experiment for assessing Liu-s testing approach. The result indicates that this testing approach may not be effective in some circumstances. We discuss the result, analyse the specific causes for the ineffectiveness, and describe some suggestions for improvement.

Keywords: experiment, functional scenario, specification-based, testing.

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Authors: Tailong Zhang, Jianming Gao, Xue Xie, Wei Sun

Abstract:

Compatibility between sulfonated acetone- formalehyde superplasticizer (SAF) and copolymer-based grinding aids (GA) were studied by fluidity, Zeta potential, setting time of cement pasts, initial slump and slump flow of concrete and compressive strength of concrete. ESEM, MIP, and XRD were used to investigate the changing of microstructure of interior concrete. The results indicated that GA could noticeably enhance the dispersion ability of SAF. It was found that better fluidity and slump-keeping ability of cement paste were obtained in the case of GA. In addition, GA together with SAF had a certain retardation effect on hydration of cement paste. With increasing of the GA dosage, the dispersion ability and retardation effect of admixture increased. The compressive strength of the sample made with SAF and GA after 28 days was higher than that of the control sample made only with SAF.  The initial slump and slump flow of concrete increased by 10.0% and 22.9%, respectively, while 0.09 wt.% GA was used. XRD examination indicated that new products were not found in the case of GA. In addition, more dense arrangement of hydrates and lower porosity of the specimen were observed by ESEM and MIP, which contributed to higher compressive strength.

Keywords: Copolymer-Based grinding aids, superplasiticizer, compatibility, microstructure, cement, concrete.

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Authors: Pei-Chann Chang, Jui-Chien Hsieh, Jyun-Jie Lin, Feng-Ming Yeh

Abstract:

Atrial Fibrillation is the most common sustained arrhythmia encountered by clinicians. Because of the invisible waveform of atrial fibrillation in atrial activation for human, it is necessary to develop an automatic diagnosis system. 12-Lead ECG now is available in hospital and is appropriate for using Independent Component Analysis to estimate the AA period. In this research, we also adopt a second-order blind identification approach to transform the sources extracted by ICA to more precise signal and then we use frequency domain algorithm to do the classification. In experiment, we gather a significant result of clinical data.

Keywords: 12-Lead ECG, Atrial Fibrillation, Blind SourceSeparation, Kurtosis

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Authors: P. Chockalingam, C. K. Kok, T. R. Vijayaram

Abstract:

A study on grindability of chopped strand mat glass fiber reinforced polymer laminates (CSM GFRP) have been carried out to evaluate the significant parameters on wheel performance. Performance of Aluminum oxide and c-BN wheels during grinding of CSM GFRP laminate was evaluated in terms of grinding force and surface roughness during grinding. The cubic Boron Nitride wheel experiences higher tangential grinding forces components and lower normal force component than Aluminum oxide grinding wheels. In case of surface finish, Aluminum oxide grinding wheels outdo the cubic Boron Nitride grinding wheels.

Keywords: Grinding, glass fiber reinforced polymer laminates, grinding force, surface finish.

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Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

Abstract:

The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second – 95,3%.

Keywords: Bass model, generalized Bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States.

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