Search results for: decision-making approach
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 5040

Search results for: decision-making approach

780 Fuzzy Control of the Air Conditioning System at Different Operating Pressures

Authors: Mohanad Alata , Moh'd Al-Nimr, Rami Al-Jarrah

Abstract:

The present work demonstrates the design and simulation of a fuzzy control of an air conditioning system at different pressures. The first order Sugeno fuzzy inference system is utilized to model the system and create the controller. In addition, an estimation of the heat transfer rate and water mass flow rate injection into or withdraw from the air conditioning system is determined by the fuzzy IF-THEN rules. The approach starts by generating the input/output data. Then, the subtractive clustering algorithm along with least square estimation (LSE) generates the fuzzy rules that describe the relationship between input/output data. The fuzzy rules are tuned by Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The results show that when the pressure increases the amount of water flow rate and heat transfer rate decrease within the lower ranges of inlet dry bulb temperatures. On the other hand, and as pressure increases the amount of water flow rate and heat transfer rate increases within the higher ranges of inlet dry bulb temperatures. The inflection in the pressure effect trend occurs at lower temperatures as the inlet air humidity increases.

Keywords: Air Conditioning, ANFIS, Fuzzy Control, Sugeno System.

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779 The Effect of an Al Andalus Fused Curriculum Model on the Learning Outcomes of Elementary School Students

Authors: Sobhy Fathy A. Hashesh

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The study was carried out in the Elementary Classes of Andalus Private Schools, girls section using control and experimental groups formed by Random Assignment Strategy. The study aimed at investigating the effect of Al-Andalus Fused Curriculum (AFC) model of learning and the effect of separate subjects’ approach on the development of students’ conceptual learning and skills acquiring. The society of the study composed of Al-Andalus Private Schools, elementary school students, Girls Section (N=240), while the sample of the study composed of two randomly assigned groups (N=28) with one experimental group and one control group. The study followed the quantitative and qualitative approaches in collecting and analyzing data to investigate the study hypotheses. Results of the study revealed that there were significant statistical differences between students’ conceptual learning and skills acquiring for the favor of the experimental group. The study recommended applying this model on different educational variables and on other age groups to generate more data leading to more educational results for the favor of students’ learning outcomes.

Keywords: AFC, Lego Education, mechatronics, STEAM, Al-Andalus Fused Curriculum.

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778 Investigating the Effect of Refinancing on Financial Behavior of Energy Efficiency Projects

Authors: Zohreh Soltani, Seyedmohammadhossein Hosseinian

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Reduction of energy consumption in built infrastructure, through the installation of energy-efficient technologies, is a major approach to achieving sustainability. In practice, the viability of energy efficiency projects strongly depends on the cost reimbursement and profitability. These projects are subject to failure if the actual cost savings do not reimburse the project cost promptly. In such cases, refinancing could be a solution to benefit from the long-term returns of the project, if implemented wisely. However, very little is still known about the effect of refinancing options on financial performance of energy efficiency projects. In order to fill this gap, the present study investigates the financial behavior of energy efficiency projects with focus on refinancing options, such as Leveraged Loans. A System Dynamics (SD) model is introduced, and the model application is presented using an actual case-study data. The case study results indicate that while high-interest start-ups make using Leveraged Loan inevitable, refinancing can rescue the project and bring about profitability. This paper also presents some managerial implications of refinancing energy efficiency projects based on the case-study analysis. Results of this study help to implement financially viable energy efficiency projects so that the community could benefit from their environmental advantages widely.

Keywords: Energy efficiency projects, leveraged loan, refinancing, sustainability.

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777 Classifier Based Text Mining for Neural Network

Authors: M. Govindarajan, R. M. Chandrasekaran

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Text Mining is around applying knowledge discovery techniques to unstructured text is termed knowledge discovery in text (KDT), or Text data mining or Text Mining. In Neural Network that address classification problems, training set, testing set, learning rate are considered as key tasks. That is collection of input/output patterns that are used to train the network and used to assess the network performance, set the rate of adjustments. This paper describes a proposed back propagation neural net classifier that performs cross validation for original Neural Network. In order to reduce the optimization of classification accuracy, training time. The feasibility the benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated by means of five data sets like contact-lenses, cpu, weather symbolic, Weather, labor-nega-data. It is shown that , compared to exiting neural network, the training time is reduced by more than 10 times faster when the dataset is larger than CPU or the network has many hidden units while accuracy ('percent correct') was the same for all datasets but contact-lences, which is the only one with missing attributes. For contact-lences the accuracy with Proposed Neural Network was in average around 0.3 % less than with the original Neural Network. This algorithm is independent of specify data sets so that many ideas and solutions can be transferred to other classifier paradigms.

Keywords: Back propagation, classification accuracy, textmining, time complexity.

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776 Modeling Bessel Beams and Their Discrete Superpositions from the Generalized Lorenz-Mie Theory to Calculate Optical Forces over Spherical Dielectric Particles

Authors: Leonardo A. Ambrosio, Carlos. H. Silva Santos, Ivan E. L. Rodrigues, Ayumi K. de Campos, Leandro A. Machado

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In this work, we propose an algorithm developed under Python language for the modeling of ordinary scalar Bessel beams and their discrete superpositions and subsequent calculation of optical forces exerted over dielectric spherical particles. The mathematical formalism, based on the generalized Lorenz-Mie theory, is implemented in Python for its large number of free mathematical (as SciPy and NumPy), data visualization (Matplotlib and PyJamas) and multiprocessing libraries. We also propose an approach, provided by a synchronized Software as Service (SaaS) in cloud computing, to develop a user interface embedded on a mobile application, thus providing users with the necessary means to easily introduce desired unknowns and parameters and see the graphical outcomes of the simulations right at their mobile devices. Initially proposed as a free Android-based application, such an App enables data post-processing in cloud-based architectures and visualization of results, figures and numerical tables.

Keywords: Bessel Beams and Frozen Waves, Generalized Lorenz-Mie Theory, Numerical Methods, Optical Forces.

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775 Resettlement and Livelihood Sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Bui Hydro-Power Dam Project, Ghana

Authors: Francis Z. Naab, Abraham M. Nunbogu, Romanus D. Dinye, Alfred Dongzagla

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The study assesses the effectiveness of the Bui Dam resettlement scheme in the Tain and the Bole districts in Ghana. The study adopted a mixed approach in its data collection and analyses. Of the eight communities affected by Bui hydropower project, and thus require resettlement, four were purposively selected for primary data collection. Primary data was gathered through questionnaire administration to 157 heads of resettled households, focus group discussions with men and women and in-depth interviews with key informants. The findings indicated that the affected people had been sufficiently contacted at all levels of their resettlement. In particular, the Ghana Dams Dialogue, which served as a liaison entity between the government and the resettlement communities came up for praise for its usefulness. Many tangible policies were put in place to address the socio-cultural differences of traditional authorities. The Bui Dam Authority also rigorously followed national and international laws and protocols in the design and implementation of the resettlement scheme.  In assessing the effectiveness of the resettlement scheme, it was clear that there had been a great appreciation of the compensation regarding infrastructural development, but much more would have to be done to satisfy livelihood empowerment requirements. It was recommended that candid efforts be made to restore the lost identities of the communities resettled, and more dialogue is encouraged among communities living together.

Keywords: Resettlement, livelihood, hydro-power project, Bui Dam, Ghana.

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774 Implementing Pro-Poor Policies for Poverty Alleviation: The Case of the White Paper on Families in South Africa

Authors: P. Mbecke

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The role of the government to tangibly alleviate poverty, improve and sustain the quality of people’s lives remains a “work in progress” twenty-two years after the dawn of democracy in South Africa despite a host of socio-economic programs and pro-poor policies and legislations. This paper assesses the development process and the implementation of the White Paper on Families in South Africa as one of the pro-poor policies intended to curb poverty and redress the imbalances of the apartheid regime. The paper is the result of a qualitative implementation research theory facilitated through in-depth interviews with social work managers complemented by literature and policy review techniques. It investigates the level of basic knowledge and understanding as well as the implementation challenges of the White Paper on Families as causes of its failure. The paper emphasizes the importance of the family-centered approach in the implementation of pro-poor policies. To facilitate the understanding of the White Paper on Families by its users, the Department of Social Development needs take stock of the identified challenges of its implementation so as to facilitate its success in fostering positive family well-being that will directly contributes to the overall socio-economic development of South Africa.

Keywords: Poverty alleviation, pro-poor policy, social development, social welfare, South Africa.

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773 A New Intelligent, Dynamic and Real Time Management System of Sewerage

Authors: R. Tlili Yaakoubi, H. Nakouri, O. Blanpain, S. Lallahem

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The current tools for real time management of sewer systems are based on two software tools: the software of weather forecast and the software of hydraulic simulation. The use of the first ones is an important cause of imprecision and uncertainty, the use of the second requires temporal important steps of decision because of their need in times of calculation. This way of proceeding fact that the obtained results are generally different from those waited. The major idea of this project is to change the basic paradigm by approaching the problem by the "automatic" face rather than by that "hydrology". The objective is to make possible the realization of a large number of simulations at very short times (a few seconds) allowing to take place weather forecasts by using directly the real time meditative pluviometric data. The aim is to reach a system where the decision-making is realized from reliable data and where the correction of the error is permanent. A first model of control laws was realized and tested with different return-period rainfalls. The gains obtained in rejecting volume vary from 19 to 100 %. The development of a new algorithm was then used to optimize calculation time and thus to overcome the subsequent combinatorial problem in our first approach. Finally, this new algorithm was tested with 16- year-rainfall series. The obtained gains are 40 % of total volume rejected to the natural environment and of 65 % in the number of discharges.

Keywords: Automation, optimization, paradigm, RTC.

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772 Automatic Segmentation of Lung Areas in Magnetic Resonance Images

Authors: Alireza Osareh, Bita Shadgar

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Segmenting the lungs in medical images is a challenging and important task for many applications. In particular, automatic segmentation of lung cavities from multiple magnetic resonance (MR) images is very useful for oncological applications such as radiotherapy treatment planning. However, distinguishing of the lung areas is not trivial due to largely changing lung shapes, low contrast and poorly defined boundaries. In this paper, we address lung segmentation problem from pulmonary magnetic resonance images and propose an automated method based on a robust regionaided geometric snake with a modified diffused region force into the standard geometric model definition. The extra region force gives the snake a global complementary view of the lung boundary information within the image which along with the local gradient flow, helps detect fuzzy boundaries. The proposed method has been successful in segmenting the lungs in every slice of 30 magnetic resonance images with 80 consecutive slices in each image. We present results by comparing our automatic method to manually segmented lung cavities provided by an expert radiologist and with those of previous works, showing encouraging results and high robustness of our approach.

Keywords: Active contours, breast cancer, fuzzy c-means segmentation, treatment planning.

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771 A Data Driven Approach for the Degradation of a Lithium-Ion Battery Based on Accelerated Life Test

Authors: Alyaa M. Younes, Nermine Harraz, Mohammad H. Elwany

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Lithium ion batteries are currently used for many applications including satellites, electric vehicles and mobile electronics. Their ability to store relatively large amount of energy in a limited space make them most appropriate for critical applications. Evaluation of the life of these batteries and their reliability becomes crucial to the systems they support. Reliability of Li-Ion batteries has been mainly considered based on its lifetime. However, another important factor that can be considered critical in many applications such as in electric vehicles is the cycle duration. The present work presents the results of an experimental investigation on the degradation behavior of a Laptop Li-ion battery (type TKV2V) and the effect of applied load on the battery cycle time. The reliability was evaluated using an accelerated life test. Least squares linear regression with median rank estimation was used to estimate the Weibull distribution parameters needed for the reliability functions estimation. The probability density function, failure rate and reliability function under each of the applied loads were evaluated and compared. An inverse power model is introduced that can predict cycle time at any stress level given.

Keywords: Accelerated life test, inverse power law, lithium ion battery, reliability evaluation, Weibull distribution.

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770 Finite Element Analysis of Sheet Metal Airbending Using Hyperform LS-DYNA

Authors: Himanshu V. Gajjar, Anish H. Gandhi, Harit K. Raval

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Air bending is one of the important metal forming processes, because of its simplicity and large field application. Accuracy of analytical and empirical models reported for the analysis of bending processes is governed by simplifying assumption and do not consider the effect of dynamic parameters. Number of researches is reported on the finite element analysis (FEA) of V-bending, Ubending, and air V-bending processes. FEA of bending is found to be very sensitive to many physical and numerical parameters. FE models must be computationally efficient for practical use. Reported work shows the 3D FEA of air bending process using Hyperform LSDYNA and its comparison with, published 3D FEA results of air bending in Ansys LS-DYNA and experimental results. Observing the planer symmetry and based on the assumption of plane strain condition, air bending problem was modeled in 2D with symmetric boundary condition in width. Stress-strain results of 2D FEA were compared with 3D FEA results and experiments. Simplification of air bending problem from 3D to 2D resulted into tremendous reduction in the solution time with only marginal effect on stressstrain results. FE model simplification by studying the problem symmetry is more efficient and practical approach for solution of more complex large dimensions slow forming processes.

Keywords: Air V-bending, Finite element analysis, HyperformLS-DYNA, Planner symmetry.

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769 Coordinated Design of TCSC Controller and PSS Employing Particle Swarm Optimization Technique

Authors: Sidhartha Panda, N. P. Padhy

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This paper investigates the application of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) technique for coordinated design of a Power System Stabilizer (PSS) and a Thyristor Controlled Series Compensator (TCSC)-based controller to enhance the power system stability. The design problem of PSS and TCSC-based controllers is formulated as a time domain based optimization problem. PSO algorithm is employed to search for optimal controller parameters. By minimizing the time-domain based objective function, in which the deviation in the oscillatory rotor speed of the generator is involved; stability performance of the system is improved. To compare the capability of PSS and TCSC-based controller, both are designed independently first and then in a coordinated manner for individual and coordinated application. The proposed controllers are tested on a weakly connected power system. The eigenvalue analysis and non-linear simulation results are presented to show the effectiveness of the coordinated design approach over individual design. The simulation results show that the proposed controllers are effective in damping low frequency oscillations resulting from various small disturbances like change in mechanical power input and reference voltage setting.

Keywords: Particle swarm optimization, Phillips-Heffron model, power system stability, PSS, TCSC.

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768 Concept to Enhance the Project Success and Promote the Implementation of Success Factors in Infrastructure Projects

Authors: A. Elbaz, K. Spang

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Infrastructure projects are often subjected to delays and cost overruns and mistakenly described as unsuccessful projects. These projects have many peculiarities such as public attention, impact on the environment, subjected to special regulations, etc. They also deal with several stakeholders with different motivations and face unique risks. With this in mind we need to reconsider our approach to manage them, define their success factors and implement these success factors. Infrastructure projects are not only lacking a unified meaning of project success or a definition of success factors, but also a clear method to implement these factors. This paper investigates this gap and introduces a concept to implement success factors in an efficient way, taking into consideration the specific characteristics of infrastructure projects. This concept consists of six enablers such as project organization, project team, project management workflow, contract management, communication and knowledge transfer and project documentations. These enablers allow other success factors to be efficiently implemented in projects. In conclusion, this paper provides project managers as well as company managers with a tool to define and implement success factors efficiently in their projects, along with upgrading their assets for the coming projects. This tool consists of processes and validated checklists to ensure the best use of company resources and knowledge. Due to the special features of infrastructure projects this tool will be tested in the German infrastructure market. However, it is meant to be adaptable to other markets and industries.

Keywords: Infrastructure projects, enablers, project success, success factors, transportation projects.

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767 View-Point Insensitive Human Pose Recognition using Neural Network

Authors: Sanghyeok Oh, Yunli Lee, Kwangjin Hong, Kirak Kim, Keechul Jung

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This paper proposes view-point insensitive human pose recognition system using neural network. Recognition system consists of silhouette image capturing module, data driven database, and neural network. The advantages of our system are first, it is possible to capture multiple view-point silhouette images of 3D human model automatically. This automatic capture module is helpful to reduce time consuming task of database construction. Second, we develop huge feature database to offer view-point insensitivity at pose recognition. Third, we use neural network to recognize human pose from multiple-view because every pose from each model have similar feature patterns, even though each model has different appearance and view-point. To construct database, we need to create 3D human model using 3D manipulate tools. Contour shape is used to convert silhouette image to feature vector of 12 degree. This extraction task is processed semi-automatically, which benefits in that capturing images and converting to silhouette images from the real capturing environment is needless. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach with experiments on virtual environment.

Keywords: Computer vision, neural network, pose recognition, view-point insensitive.

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766 A Comparative Analysis of Modulation Control Strategies for Cascade H-Bridge 11-Level Inverter

Authors: Joshi Manohar. V., Sujatha. P., Anjaneyulu K. S. R

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The range of the output power is a very important and evident limitation of two-level inverters. In order to overcome this disadvantage, multilevel inverters are introduced. Recently, Cascade H-Bridge inverters have emerged as one of the popular converter topologies used in numerous industrial applications. The modulation switching strategies such as phase shifted carrier based Pulse Width Modulation (PWM) technique and Stair case modulation with Selective Harmonic Elimination (SHE) PWM technique are generally used. NR method is used to solve highly non linear transcendental equations which are formed by SHEPWM method. Generally NR method has a drawback of requiring good initial guess but in this paper a new approach is implemented for NR method with any random initial guess. A three phase CHB 11-level inverter is chosen for analysis. MATLAB/SIMULINK programming environment and harmonic profiles are compared. Finally this paper presents a method at fundamental switching frequency with least % THDV.

Keywords: Cascade H-bridge 11- level Inverter, NR method, Phase shifted carrier based pulse width modulation (PSCPWM), Selective Harmonic Elimination Pulse Width Modulation (SHEPWM), Total Harmonic Distortion (%THDv).

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765 Effects of Blast Load on Historic Stone Masonry Buildings in Canada: A Review and Analytical Study

Authors: Abass Braimah, Maha Hussein Abdallah

Abstract:

The global ascendancy of terrorist attacks on building infrastructure with economic and heritage significance has increased awareness of the possibility of terrorism in Canada. Many structures in Canada that are at risk of terrorist attacks include government buildings, built many years ago of historic stone masonry construction. Although many researchers are investigating ways to retrofit masonry stone buildings to mitigate the effect of blast loadings, lack of knowledge on the dynamic behavior of historic stone masonry structures under blast loads makes it difficult to ascertain the effectiveness of the retrofitting techniques. This paper presents a review of open-source literature for the experimental and numerical stone masonry structures under blast loads. This review yielded very little information of the response of the historic stone masonry structures under blast loads. Thus, a comprehensive study is needed to understand the blast load effects on historic stone masonry buildings. The out-of-plane response of historic masonry structures to blast loads is investigated by using single-degree-of-freedom analysis. This approach presents equations that can be used effectively in the analysis of historic masonry walls to out-of-plane blast loading.

Keywords: Blast loads, historical buildings, masonry structure, single-degree-of-freedom analysis.

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764 Concept for Determining the Focus of Technology Monitoring Activities

Authors: Guenther Schuh, Christina Koenig, Nico Schoen, Markus Wellensiek

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Identification and selection of appropriate product and manufacturing technologies are key factors for competitiveness and market success of technology-based companies. Therefore, many companies perform technology intelligence (TI) activities to ensure the identification of evolving technologies at the right time. Technology monitoring is one of the three base activities of TI, besides scanning and scouting. As the technological progress is accelerating, more and more technologies are being developed. Against the background of limited resources it is therefore necessary to focus TI activities. In this paper we propose a concept for defining appropriate search fields for technology monitoring. This limitation of search space leads to more concentrated monitoring activities. The concept will be introduced and demonstrated through an anonymized case study conducted within an industry project at the Fraunhofer Institute for Production Technology IPT. The described concept provides a customized monitoring approach, which is suitable for use in technology-oriented companies. It is shown in this paper that the definition of search fields and search tasks are suitable methods to define topics of interest and thus to align monitoring activities. Current as well as planned product, production and material technologies and existing skills, capabilities and resources form the basis for derivation of relevant search areas. To further improve the concept of technology monitoring the proposed concept should be extended during future research e.g. by the definition of relevant monitoring parameters.

Keywords: Monitoring radar, search field, technology intelligence, technology monitoring.

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763 Perceptions of Educators on the Learners’ Youngest Age for the Introduction of ICTs in Schools: A Personality Theory Approach

Authors: K. E. Oyetade, S. D. Eyono Obono

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Age ratings are very helpful in providing parents with relevant information for the purchase and use of digital technologies by the children; this is why the non-definition of age ratings for the use of ICTs by children in schools is a major concern; and this problem serves as a motivation for this study whose aim is to examine the factors affecting the perceptions of educators on the learners’ youngest age for the introduction of ICTs in schools. This aim is achieved through two types of research objectives: the identification and design of theories and models on age ratings, and the empirical testing of such theories and models in a survey of educators from the Camperdown district of the South African KwaZulu-Natal province. A questionnaire is used for the collection of the data of this survey whose validity and reliability is checked in SPSS prior to its descriptive and correlative quantitative analysis. The main hypothesis supporting this research is the association between the demographics of educators, their personality, and their perceptions on the learners’ youngest age for the introduction of ICTs in schools; as claimed by existing research; except that the present study looks at personality from three dimensions: self-actualized personalities, fully functioning personalities, and healthy personalities. This hypothesis was fully confirmed by the empirical study conducted by this research except for the demographic factor where only the educators’ grade or class was found to be associated with the personality of educators.

Keywords: Age ratings, Educators, E-learning, Personality Theories.

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762 GIS-based Non-point Sources of Pollution Simulation in Cameron Highlands, Malaysia

Authors: M. Eisakhani, A. Pauzi, O. Karim, A. Malakahmad, S.R. Mohamed Kutty, M. H. Isa

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Cameron Highlands is a mountainous area subjected to torrential tropical showers. It extracts 5.8 million liters of water per day for drinking supply from its rivers at several intake points. The water quality of rivers in Cameron Highlands, however, has deteriorated significantly due to land clearing for agriculture, excessive usage of pesticides and fertilizers as well as construction activities in rapidly developing urban areas. On the other hand, these pollution sources known as non-point pollution sources are diverse and hard to identify and therefore they are difficult to estimate. Hence, Geographical Information Systems (GIS) was used to provide an extensive approach to evaluate landuse and other mapping characteristics to explain the spatial distribution of non-point sources of contamination in Cameron Highlands. The method to assess pollution sources has been developed by using Cameron Highlands Master Plan (2006-2010) for integrating GIS, databases, as well as pollution loads in the area of study. The results show highest annual runoff is created by forest, 3.56 × 108 m3/yr followed by urban development, 1.46 × 108 m3/yr. Furthermore, urban development causes highest BOD load (1.31 × 106 kgBOD/yr) while agricultural activities and forest contribute the highest annual loads for phosphorus (6.91 × 104 kgP/yr) and nitrogen (2.50 × 105 kgN/yr), respectively. Therefore, best management practices (BMPs) are suggested to be applied to reduce pollution level in the area.

Keywords: Cameron Highlands, Land use, Non-point Sources of Pollution

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761 Hybrid Authentication System Using QR Code with OTP

Authors: Salim Istyaq

Abstract:

As we know, number of Internet users are increasing drastically. Now, people are using different online services provided by banks, colleges/schools, hospitals, online utility, bill payment and online shopping sites. To access online services, text-based authentication system is in use. The text-based authentication scheme faces some drawbacks with usability and security issues that bring troubles to users. The core element of computational trust is identity. The aim of the paper is to make the system more compliable for the imposters and more reliable for the users, by using the graphical authentication approach. In this paper, we are using the more powerful tool of encoding the options in graphical QR format and also there will be the acknowledgment which will send to the user’s mobile for final verification. The main methodology depends upon the encryption option and final verification by confirming a set of pass phrase on the legal users, the outcome of the result is very powerful as it only gives the result at once when the process is successfully done. All processes are cross linked serially as the output of the 1st process, is the input of the 2nd and so on. The system is a combination of recognition and pure recall based technique. Presented scheme is useful for devices like PDAs, iPod, phone etc. which are more handy and convenient to use than traditional desktop computer systems.

Keywords: Graphical Password, OTP, QR Codes, Recognition based graphical user authentication, usability and security.

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760 Optimizing Forecasting for Indonesia's Coal and Palm Oil Exports: A Comparative Analysis of ARIMA, ANN, and LSTM Methods

Authors: Mochammad Dewo, Sumarsono Sudarto

Abstract:

The Exponential Triple Smoothing Algorithm approach nowadays, which is used to anticipate the export value of Indonesia's two major commodities, coal and palm oil, has a Mean Percentage Absolute Error (MAPE) value of 30-50%, which may be considered as a "reasonable" forecasting mistake. Forecasting errors of more than 30% shall have a domino effect on industrial output, as extra production adds to raw material, manufacturing and storage expenses. Whereas, reaching an "excellent" classification with an error value of less than 10% will provide new investors and exporters with confidence in the commercial development of related sectors. Industrial growth will bring out a positive impact on economic development. It can be applied for other commodities if the forecast error is less than 10%. The purpose of this project is to create a forecasting technique that can produce precise forecasting results with an error of less than 10%. This research analyzes forecasting methods such as ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), ANN (Artificial Neural Network) and LSTM (Long-Short Term Memory). By providing a MAPE of 1%, this study reveals that ANN is the most successful strategy for forecasting coal and palm oil commodities in Indonesia.

Keywords: ANN, Artificial Neural Network, ARIMA, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, export value, forecast, LSTM, Long Short Term Memory.

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759 Assessing Innovation Activity in Mexico and South Korea: An Econometric Approach

Authors: Mario Gómez, Won Ho Kim, Ángel Licona, José Carlos Rodríguez

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This article analyzes innovation activity in Mexico and South Korea. It develops an econometric model to test for structural breaks in the number of patent applications filed by residents and nonresidents in these countries during the period of 1965 to 2012. These changes may suggest that firms’ innovative capabilities have changed because of implementing different science, technology and innovation (STI) policies in Mexico and South Korea. Two important features characterize this research from others already developed by these authors. First, the theoretical research framework in this research is the debate between the assimilation view of growth and the accumulation view of growth. This characteristic suggests that trade liberalization should be accompanied by an adequate STI policy to boost competitiveness among indigenous firms. Second, the analysis in this research stresses the importance of key actors (e.g. governments) to successfully develop innovation capabilities among indigenous firms. Therefore, the question conducting this research is how STI policies in Mexico and South Korea contributed to develop firms’ innovation capabilities in these countries during last decades? The results from this research suggests that STI policy in South Korea was more suitable to boost innovation firms to compete in markets. Data to develop this research was released by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO).

Keywords: Econometric methods, innovation, Mexico, South Korea, STI Policy.

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758 Ensemble Approach for Predicting Student's Academic Performance

Authors: L. A. Muhammad, M. S. Argungu

Abstract:

Educational data mining (EDM) has recorded substantial considerations. Techniques of data mining in one way or the other have been proposed to dig out out-of-sight knowledge in educational data. The result of the study got assists academic institutions in further enhancing their process of learning and methods of passing knowledge to students. Consequently, the performance of students boasts and the educational products are by no doubt enhanced. This study adopted a student performance prediction model premised on techniques of data mining with Students' Essential Features (SEF). SEF are linked to the learner's interactivity with the e-learning management system. The performance of the student's predictive model is assessed by a set of classifiers, viz. Bayes Network, Logistic Regression, and Reduce Error Pruning Tree (REP). Consequently, ensemble methods of Bagging, Boosting, and Random Forest (RF) are applied to improve the performance of these single classifiers. The study reveals that the result shows a robust affinity between learners' behaviors and their academic attainment. Result from the study shows that the REP Tree and its ensemble record the highest accuracy of 83.33% using SEF. Hence, in terms of the Receiver Operating Curve (ROC), boosting method of REP Tree records 0.903, which is the best. This result further demonstrates the dependability of the proposed model.

Keywords: Ensemble, bagging, Random Forest, boosting, data mining, classifiers, machine learning.

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757 Predictive Analytics of Student Performance Determinants in Education

Authors: Mahtab Davari, Charles Edward Okon, Somayeh Aghanavesi

Abstract:

Every institute of learning is usually interested in the performance of enrolled students. The level of these performances determines the approach an institute of study may adopt in rendering academic services. The focus of this paper is to evaluate students' academic performance in given courses of study using machine learning methods. This study evaluated various supervised machine learning classification algorithms such as Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbors, Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis, using selected features to predict study performance. The accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score obtained from a 5-Fold Cross-Validation were used to determine the best classification algorithm to predict students’ performances. SVM (using a linear kernel), LDA, and LR were identified as the best-performing machine learning methods. Also, using the LR model, this study identified students' educational habits such as reading and paying attention in class as strong determinants for a student to have an above-average performance. Other important features include the academic history of the student and work. Demographic factors such as age, gender, high school graduation, etc., had no significant effect on a student's performance.

Keywords: Student performance, supervised machine learning, prediction, classification, cross-validation.

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756 Evolutionary Multi-objective Optimization for Positioning of Residential Houses

Authors: Ayman El Ansary, Mohamed Shalaby

Abstract:

The current study describes a multi-objective optimization technique for positioning of houses in a residential neighborhood. The main task is the placement of residential houses in a favorable configuration satisfying a number of objectives. Solving the house layout problem is a challenging task. It requires an iterative approach to satisfy design requirements (e.g. energy efficiency, skyview, daylight, roads network, visual privacy, and clear access to favorite views). These design requirements vary from one project to another based on location and client preferences. In the Gulf region, the most important socio-cultural factor is the visual privacy in indoor space. Hence, most of the residential houses in this region are surrounded by high fences to provide privacy, which has a direct impact on other requirements (e.g. daylight and direction to favorite views). This investigation introduces a novel technique to optimally locate and orient residential buildings to satisfy a set of design requirements. The developed technique explores the search space for possible solutions. This study considers two dimensional house planning problems. However, it can be extended to solve three dimensional cases.

Keywords: Evolutionary optimization, Houses planning, Urban modeling, Daylight, Visual Privacy, Residential compounds.

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755 Methods for Analyzing the Energy Efficiencyand Cost Effectiveness of Evaporative Cooling Air Conditioning

Authors: A Fouda, Z. Melikyan

Abstract:

Air conditioning systems of houses consume large quantity of electricity. To reducing energy consumption for air conditioning purposes it is becoming attractive the use of evaporative cooling air conditioning which is less energy consuming compared to air chillers. But, it is obvious that higher energy efficiency of evaporative cooling is not enough to judge whether evaporative cooling economically is competitive with other types of cooling systems. To proving the higher energy efficiency and cost effectiveness of the evaporative cooling competitive analysis of various types of cooling system should be accomplished. For noted purpose optimization mathematical model for each system should be composed based on system approach analysis. In this paper different types of evaporative cooling-heating systems are discussed and methods for increasing their energy efficiency and as well as determining of their design parameters are developed. The optimization mathematical models for each of them are composed with help of which least specific costs for each of them are reviled. The comparison of specific costs proved that the most efficient and cost effective is considered the “direct evaporating" system if it is applicable for given climatic conditions. Next more universal and applicable for many climatic conditions system providing least cost of heating and cooling is considered the “direct evaporating" system.

Keywords: air, conditioning, system, evaporative cooling, mathematical model, optimization, thermoeconomic.

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754 Kinetic Theory Based CFD Modeling of Particulate Flows in Horizontal Pipes

Authors: Pandaba Patro, Brundaban Patro

Abstract:

The numerical simulation of fully developed gas–solid flow in a horizontal pipe is done using the eulerian-eulerian approach, also known as two fluids modeling as both phases are treated as continuum and inter-penetrating continua. The solid phase stresses are modeled using kinetic theory of granular flow (KTGF). The computed results for velocity profiles and pressure drop are compared with the experimental data. We observe that the convection and diffusion terms in the granular temperature cannot be neglected in gas solid flow simulation along a horizontal pipe. The particle-wall collision and lift also play important role in eulerian modeling. We also investigated the effect of flow parameters like gas velocity, particle properties and particle loading on pressure drop prediction in different pipe diameters. Pressure drop increases with gas velocity and particle loading. The gas velocity has the same effect ((proportional toU2 ) as single phase flow on pressure drop prediction. With respect to particle diameter, pressure drop first increases, reaches a peak and then decreases. The peak is a strong function of pipe bore.

Keywords: CFD, Eulerian modeling, gas solid flow, KTGF.

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753 Building a Performance Outline for Health Care Workers at Teaching Hospitals, Nigeria: The Role of Different Leadership Styles

Authors: Osuagwu Justine Ugochukwu, Sazali Abd Wahab, Sunday Sunday Akpan

Abstract:

Investigating the effects of transformational and transactional leadership styles on the performance of healthcare employees at the University Teaching Hospital (UNTH) in Enugu, Nigeria, was the goal of the research. The respondents were asked to fill out a structured questionnaire. The respondents were chosen using a straightforward random sampling technique and consisted of 370 health workers at the hospital. The result of the analysis revealed that transactional and transformational leadership style has a positive while ambidextrous leadership has a negative effect on healthcare workers' performance in UNTH, Enugu. Therefore, the management of public hospitals that have the capacity to change their top management approach to leadership styles will gain substantial support from their employees’ thereby increasing organizational commitment and performance among health workers. This will have remarkable social implications, one of which is a change in the work culture and attitude of medical personnel from the seemingly anti-community of patients to friendly engagement and treatment of patients leading to a harmonious coexistence among these individuals in society. Investigating ambidextrous leadership and the use of nonparametric analysis is unique and has brought knowledge to leadership literature.

Keywords: Workers’ performance, transformational leadership, transactional leadership, governance quality, ambidextrous leadership.

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752 Dual Role of Women and Its Influence on Farmers’ Household Income and Consumption Pattern: Study of Informal Women Workers in the District Mandalle, Pangkep, South Sulawesi Province

Authors: Ida Rosada, Nurliani

Abstract:

Today, the number of women who seek additional income to help her husband is increasing. They do that in order to be able to express themselves in the midst of the family and society. Nonetheless, housewives are in charge of managing family’s income and prepare food for the family. The objective of this research is 1) to analyze the effect of the dual role of women to household income and 2) to analyze the effect of the dual role to consumption patterns. The study used a qualitative approach, data collection techniques are through observation, interviews, and documentation on farming households. The data was analysed qualitative descriptively. The results found that: 1) The revenue contribution of women who play double role in the informal sector amounted to 34.07% (less than 50%). 2) The main reason that the respondents worked in the informal sector is to be able to send their children to school (34%) and to improve household economy condition (28%). 3) After earning additional income, respondents said that they can contribute to increase the family’s income and to cover the family shortage (82%); 4) Respondents’ opinion to changes in food consumption after performing the dual role is the ability to purchase and provide the desired food (44%) and changing patterns of consumption per day (30%).

Keywords: Dual role, the informal sector, consumption patterns, household income.

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751 TOSOM: A Topic-Oriented Self-Organizing Map for Text Organization

Authors: Hsin-Chang Yang, Chung-Hong Lee, Kuo-Lung Ke

Abstract:

The self-organizing map (SOM) model is a well-known neural network model with wide spread of applications. The main characteristics of SOM are two-fold, namely dimension reduction and topology preservation. Using SOM, a high-dimensional data space will be mapped to some low-dimensional space. Meanwhile, the topological relations among data will be preserved. With such characteristics, the SOM was usually applied on data clustering and visualization tasks. However, the SOM has main disadvantage of the need to know the number and structure of neurons prior to training, which are difficult to be determined. Several schemes have been proposed to tackle such deficiency. Examples are growing/expandable SOM, hierarchical SOM, and growing hierarchical SOM. These schemes could dynamically expand the map, even generate hierarchical maps, during training. Encouraging results were reported. Basically, these schemes adapt the size and structure of the map according to the distribution of training data. That is, they are data-driven or dataoriented SOM schemes. In this work, a topic-oriented SOM scheme which is suitable for document clustering and organization will be developed. The proposed SOM will automatically adapt the number as well as the structure of the map according to identified topics. Unlike other data-oriented SOMs, our approach expands the map and generates the hierarchies both according to the topics and their characteristics of the neurons. The preliminary experiments give promising result and demonstrate the plausibility of the method.

Keywords: Self-organizing map, topic identification, learning algorithm, text clustering.

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