Search results for: risk management in electricity market

Authors: R.M. Kainkwa

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The African Great Lakes Region refers to the zone around lakes Victoria, Tanganyika, Albert, Edward, Kivu, and Malawi. The main source of electricity in this region is hydropower whose systems are generally characterized by relatively weak, isolated power schemes, poor maintenance and technical deficiencies with limited electricity infrastructures. Most of the hydro sources are rain fed, and as such there is normally a deficiency of water during the dry seasons and extended droughts. In such calamities fossil fuels sources, in particular petroleum products and natural gas, are normally used to rescue the situation but apart from them being nonrenewable, they also release huge amount of green house gases to our environment which in turn accelerates the global warming that has at present reached an amazing stage. Wind power is ample, renewable, widely distributed, clean, and free energy source that does not consume or pollute water. Wind generated electricity is one of the most practical and commercially viable option for grid quality and utility scale electricity production. However, the main shortcoming associated with electric wind power generation is fluctuation in its output both in space and time. Before making a decision to establish a wind park at a site, the wind speed features there should therefore be known thoroughly as well as local demand or transmission capacity. The main objective of this paper is to utilise monthly average wind speed data collected from one prospective site within the African Great Lakes Region to demonstrate that the available wind power there is high enough to generate electricity. The mean monthly values were calculated from records gathered on hourly basis for a period of 5 years (2001 to 2005) from a site in Tanzania. The documentations that were collected at a height of 2 m were projected to a height of 50 m which is the standard hub height of wind turbines. The overall monthly average wind speed was found to be 12.11 m/s whereas June to November was established to be the windy season as the wind speed during the session is above the overall monthly wind speed. The available wind power density corresponding to the overall mean monthly wind speed was evaluated to be 1072 W/m2, a potential that is worthwhile harvesting for the purpose of electric generation.

Keywords: Hydro power, windy season, available wind powerdensity.

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Authors: Nader Gharibnavaz, Naser Gharibnavaz

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This study extends research on the relationship between marketing strategy and market segmentation by investigating on market segments in the cement industry. Competitive strength and rivals distance from the factory were used as business environment. A three segment (positive, neutral or indifferent and zero zones) were identified as strategic segments. For each segment a marketing strategy (aggressive, defensive and decline) were developed. This study employed data from cement industry to fulfill two objectives, the first is to give a framework to the segmentation of cement industry and the second is developing marketing strategy with varying competitive strength. Fifty six questionnaires containing close-and open-ended questions were collected and analyzed. Results supported the theory that segments tend to be more aggressive than defensive when competitive strength increases. It is concluded that high strength segments follow total market coverage, concentric diversification and frontal attack to their competitors. With decreased competitive strength, Business tends to follow multi-market strategy, product modification/improvement and flank attack to direct competitors for this kind of segments. Segments with weak competitive strength followed focus strategy and decline strategy.

Keywords: Marketing strategy, Competitive strength, Market Segmentation

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Authors: Dae Gon Woo, Han Sung Kim, Dohyung Lim, Dong Jin Seo, In Deok Kong, Chang Yong Ko

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Functional gastrointestinal disorders (FGID) affect millions of people spread all age regardless of race and sex. Emotional stress and obesity have been associated with increased reporting of gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms, but the relationship between FGID and risk factors (emotional stress or obesity) is unclear. Our aim was to assess the changes of the mechanical characteristics on the gastrointestinal tracts of the mentally fatigued obese and normal rat models. Finally, using the physical characteristics with micro-indentation test, we made a close investigation into the relation between FGID and risk factors quantitatively.

Keywords: Functional gastrointestinal disorders, Risk Factors, Mechanical Characteristics, Gastrointestinal Tract.

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Authors: Talal Alsulaiman, Khaldoun Khashanah

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In this paper, we provided a literature survey on the artificial stock problem (ASM). The paper began by exploring the complexity of the stock market and the needs for ASM. ASM aims to investigate the link between individual behaviors (micro level) and financial market dynamics (macro level). The variety of patterns at the macro level is a function of the AFM complexity. The financial market system is a complex system where the relationship between the micro and macro level cannot be captured analytically. Computational approaches, such as simulation, are expected to comprehend this connection. Agent-based simulation is a simulation technique commonly used to build AFMs. The paper proceeds by discussing the components of the ASM. We consider the roles of behavioral finance (BF) alongside the traditionally risk-averse assumption in the construction of agent’s attributes. Also, the influence of social networks in the developing of agents interactions is addressed. Network topologies such as a small world, distance-based, and scale-free networks may be utilized to outline economic collaborations. In addition, the primary methods for developing agents learning and adaptive abilities have been summarized. These incorporated approach such as Genetic Algorithm, Genetic Programming, Artificial neural network and Reinforcement Learning. In addition, the most common statistical properties (the stylized facts) of stock that are used for calibration and validation of ASM are discussed. Besides, we have reviewed the major related previous studies and categorize the utilized approaches as a part of these studies. Finally, research directions and potential research questions are argued. The research directions of ASM may focus on the macro level by analyzing the market dynamic or on the micro level by investigating the wealth distributions of the agents.

Keywords: Artificial stock markets, agent based simulation, bounded rationality, behavioral finance, artificial neural network, interaction, scale-free networks.

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Authors: E. Sok, Y. Zhuo, S. Wang

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A hybrid Photovoltaic/Thermal (PV/T) solar system integrates photovoltaic and solar thermal technologies into one single solar energy device, with dual generation of electricity and heat energy. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the potential for introduction of the PV/T technology into Northern China. For this purpose, outdoor experiments were conducted on a prototype of a PV/T water-heating system. The annual thermal and electrical performances were investigated under the climatic conditions of Beijing. An economic analysis of the system was then carried out, followed by a sensitivity study. The analysis revealed that the hybrid system is not economically attractive with the current market and energy prices. However, considering the continuous commitment of the Chinese government towards policy development in the renewable energy sector, and technological improvements like the increasing cost-effectiveness of PV cells, PV/Thermal technology may become economically viable in the near future.

Keywords: Hybrid Photovoltaic/Thermal (PV/T), Solar energy, Economic analysis

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Authors: Ahmed Elsayed, Andrew Shea, Nicolas Kelly, John Allison

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In northern European climates, domestic space heating and hot water represents a significant proportion of total primary total primary energy use and meeting these demands from a national electricity grid network supplied by renewable energy sources provides an opportunity for a significant reduction in EU CO₂ emissions. However, in order to adapt to the intermittent nature of renewable energy generation and to avoid co-incident peak electricity usage from consumers that may exceed current capacity, the demand for heat must be decoupled from its generation. Storage of heat within the fabric of dwellings for use some hours, or days, later provides a route to complete decoupling of demand from supply and facilitates the greatly increased use of renewable energy generation into a local or national electricity network. The integration of thermal energy storage into the building fabric for retrieval at a later time requires much evaluation of the many competing thermal, physical, and practical considerations such as the profile and magnitude of heat demand, the duration of storage, charging and discharging rate, storage media, space allocation, etc. In this paper, the authors report investigations of thermal storage in building fabric using concrete material and present an evaluation of several factors that impact upon performance including heating pipe layout, heating fluid flow velocity, storage geometry, thermo-physical material properties, and also present an investigation of alternative storage materials and alternative heat transfer fluids. Reducing the heating pipe spacing from 200 mm to 100 mm enhances the stored energy by 25% and high-performance Vacuum Insulation results in heat loss flux of less than 3 W/m², compared to 22 W/m² for the more conventional EPS insulation. Dense concrete achieved the greatest storage capacity, relative to medium and light-weight alternatives, although a material thickness of 100 mm required more than 5 hours to charge fully. Layers of 25 mm and 50 mm thickness can be charged in 2 hours, or less, facilitating a fast response that could, aggregated across multiple dwellings, provide significant and valuable reduction in demand from grid-generated electricity in expected periods of high demand and potentially eliminate the need for additional new generating capacity from conventional sources such as gas, coal, or nuclear.

Keywords: Fabric integrated thermal storage, FITS, demand side management, energy storage, load shifting, renewable energy integration.

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Authors: Kari Björn

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Introduction of games has expanded the application area of computer-aided learning tools to wide variety of age groups of learners. Serious games engage the learners into a real-world -type of simulation and potentially enrich the learning experience. Institutional background of a Bachelor’s level engineering program in Information and Communication Technology is introduced, with detailed focus on one of its majors, Health Technology. As part of a Customer Oriented Software Application thematic semester, one particular course of “eHealth Business and Solutions” is described and reflected in a gamified framework. Learning a consistent view into vast literature of business management, strategies, marketing and finance in a very limited time enforces selection of topics relevant to the industry. Health Technology is a novel and growing industry with a growing sector in consumer wearable devices and homecare applications. The business sector is attracting new entrepreneurs and impatient investor funds. From engineering education point of view the sector is driven by miniaturizing electronics, sensors and wireless applications. However, the market is highly consumer-driven and usability, safety and data integrity requirements are extremely high. When the same technology is used in analysis or treatment of patients, very strict regulatory measures are enforced. The paper introduces a course structure using gamification as a tool to learn the most essential in a new market: customer value proposition design, followed by a market entry game. Students analyze the existing market size and pricing structure of eHealth web-service market and enter the market as a steering group of their company, competing against the legacy players and with each other. The market is growing but has its rules of demand and supply balance. New products can be developed with an R&D-investment, and targeted to market with unique quality- and price-combinations. Product cost structure can be improved by investing to enhanced production capacity. Investments can be funded optionally by foreign capital. Students make management decisions and face the dynamics of the market competition in form of income statement and balance sheet after each decision cycle. The focus of the learning outcome is to understand customer value creation to be the source of cash flow. The benefit of gamification is to enrich the learning experience on structure and meaning of financial statements. The paper describes the gamification approach and discusses outcomes after two course implementations. Along the case description of learning challenges, some unexpected misconceptions are noted. Improvements of the game or the semi-gamified teaching pedagogy are discussed. The case description serves as an additional support to new game coordinator, as well as helps to improve the method. Overall, the gamified approach has helped to engage engineering student to business studies in an energizing way.

Keywords: Engineering education, integrated curriculum, learning experience, learning outcomes.

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Authors: S. K. Balashanmugam, Padmavati Manchikanti, S. R. Subramanian

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The question of legal liability over injury arising out of the import and the introduction of GM food emerges as a crucial issue confronting to promote GM food and its derivatives. There is a greater possibility of commercialized GM food from the exporting country to enter importing country where status of approval shall not be same. This necessitates the importance of fixing a liability mechanism to discuss the damage, if any, occurs at the level of transboundary movement or at the market. There was a widespread consensus to develop the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety and to give for a dedicated regime on liability and redress in the form of Nagoya Kuala Lumpur Supplementary Protocol on the Liability and Redress (‘N-KL Protocol’) at the international context. The national legal frameworks based on this protocol are not adequately established in the prevailing food legislations of the developing countries. The developing economy like India is willing to import GM food and its derivatives after the successful commercialization of Bt Cotton in 2002. As a party to the N-KL Protocol, it is indispensable for India to formulate a legal framework and to discuss safety, liability, and regulatory issues surrounding GM foods in conformity to the provisions of the Protocol. The liability mechanism is also important in the case where the risk assessment and risk management is still in implementing stage. Moreover, the country is facing GM infiltration issues with its neighbors Bangladesh. As a precautionary approach, there is a need to formulate rules and procedure of legal liability to discuss any kind of damage occurs at transboundary trade. In this context, the proposed work will attempt to analyze the liability regime in the existing Food Safety and Standards Act, 2006 from the applicability and domestic compliance and to suggest legal and policy options for regulatory authorities.

Keywords: Commercialisation, food safety, FSSAI, genetically modified foods, India, liability.

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Authors: John Walton, Vishal Parikh

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Contact centres have been exemplars of scientific management in the discipline of operations management for more than a decade now. With the movement of industries from a resource based economy to knowledge based economy businesses have started to realize the customer eccentricity being the key to sustainability amidst high velocity of the market. However, as technologies have converged and advanced, so have the contact centres. Contact Centres have redirected the supply chains and the concept of retailing is highly diminished due to over exaggeration of cost reduction strategies. In conditions of high environmental velocity together with services featuring considerable information intensity contact centres will require up to date and enlightened agents to satisfy the demands placed upon them by those requesting their services. In this paper we examine salient factors such as Power Distance, Knowledge structures and the dynamics of job specialisation and enlargement to suggest critical success factors in the domain of contact centres.

Keywords: Post Taylorism, Knowledge Management, Power Distance, Organisational Learning

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Authors: Matthew P. Mancini, Vincent Ribiere

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Today’s workers face more numerous and complex challenges and are required to be increasingly interdependent and faster learners. Knowledge sharing activities between people have been understood as a significant element affecting organizational innovation performance. While they do have the potential to spark cognitive conflict, disagreement is important from an organizational perspective because it can stimulate the development of new ideas and perhaps pave the way for creativity, innovation, and competitive advantage. How teams cope with the cognitive conflict dimension of knowledge sharing and the associated interpersonal risk is what captures our attention. Specifically, assertive conflict management strategies have a positive influence on knowledge sharing behaviors, and team psychological safety has a positive influence on knowledge sharing intention. This paper focuses on explaining the impact that these factors have on the shaping of an individual’s decision to engage or not in knowledge sharing activities. To accomplish this, we performed an empirical analysis on the results of our questionnaire about knowledge-sharing related conflict management and team psychological safety in pharmaceutical enterprises located in North America, Europe, and Asia. First, univariate analysis is used to characterize behavior regarding conflict management strategy into two groups. Group 1 presents assertive conflict management strategies and group 2 shows unassertive ones. Then, by using SEM methodology, we evaluated the relationships between them and the team psychological safety construct with the knowledge sharing process. The results of the SEM analysis show that assertive conflict management strategies affect the knowledge sharing process the most with a small, but significant effect from team psychological safety. The findings suggest that assertive conflict management strategies are just as important as knowledge sharing intentions for encouraging knowledge sharing behavior. This paper provides clear insights into how employees manage the sharing of their knowledge in the face of conflict and interpersonal risk and the relative importance of these factors in sustaining productive knowledge sharing activities.

Keywords: Cognitive dissonance, conflict management, knowledge sharing, organizational behavior, psychological safety.

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Authors: Jung-Lo Park, Sung-Sik Kim, Sun-Young Choi, Ju-Hyung Kim, Jae-Jun Kim

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Sub-prime mortgage crisis which began in the US is regarded as the most economic crisis since the Great Depression in the early 20th century. Especially, hidden problems on efficient operation of a business were disclosed at a time and many financial institutions went bankrupt and filed for court receivership. The collapses of physical market lead to bankruptcy of manufacturing and construction businesses. This study is to analyze dynamic efficiency of construction businesses during the five years at the turn of the global financial crisis. By discovering the trend and stability of efficiency of a construction business, this study-s objective is to improve management efficiency of a construction business in the ever-changing construction market. Variables were selected by analyzing corporate information on top 20 construction businesses in Korea and analyzed for static efficiency in 2008 and dynamic efficiency between 2006 and 2010. Unlike other studies, this study succeeded in deducing efficiency trend and stability of a construction business for five years by using the DEA/Window model. Using the analysis result, efficient and inefficient companies could be figured out. In addition, relative efficiency among DMU was measured by comparing the relationship between input and output variables of construction businesses. This study can be used as a literature to improve management efficiency for companies with low efficiency based on efficiency analysis of construction businesses.

Keywords: Construction Company, DEA, DEA/Window, Efficiency Analysis

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Authors: Olga V. Krivobokova

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A major goal of any enterprise is to create a ratings system of customer satisfaction, goods and services. It is obvious that the company cannot change what is not measured. In order to get a clearer picture of the preferences of the major consumer groups, this stage should be based on extensive research, including a variety of interviews and surveys. It is necessary to know the key benefits, which determine customer satisfaction in the market segment, of the properties of certain goods and services. It is important to estimate the terms of these preferences from the viewpoint of the client. This article discusses the importance of customer satisfaction, and ways of assessing it.

Keywords: Costs, customer, evaluation, organization, producer, quality management, satisfaction.

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Authors: K. Matušínská, H. Starzyczná, M. Stoklasa

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The paper deals with behaviour of the segment 50+ in the financial market in the Czech Republic. This segment could be said as the strong market power and it can be a crucial business potential for financial business units. The main defined objective of this paper is analysis of the customers´ behaviour of the segment 50- 60 years in the financial market in the Czech Republic and proposal making of the suitable marketing approach to satisfy their demands in the area of product, price, distribution and marketing communication policy. This paper is based on data from one part of primary marketing research. Paper determinates the basic problem areas as well as definition of financial services marketing, defining the primary research problem, hypothesis and primary research methodology. Finally suitable marketing approach to selected sub segment at age of 50-60 years is proposed according to marketing research findings.

Keywords: Population aging in the Czech Republic, Segment 50-60 years, Financial services marketing, Marketing research, Marketing approach.

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Authors: Ahmed Kiani

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The United Arab Emirates is clearly facing a multitude of challenges in curbing its greenhouse gas emissions to meet its pre-allotted framework of Kyoto protocol and COP21 targets due to its hunger for modernization, industrialization, infrastructure growth, soaring population and oil and gas activity. In this work, we focus on the bonafide zero emission electric vehicles market penetration in the country’s transport industry for emission reduction. We study the global electric vehicle market trends, the complementary battery technologies and the trends by manufacturers, emission standards across borders and prioritized advancements which will ultimately dictate the terms of future conditions for the United Arab Emirate transport industry. Based on our findings and analysis at every stage of current viability and state-of-transport-affairs, we postulate policy recommendations to local governmental entities from a supply and demand perspective covering aspects of technology, infrastructure requirements, change in power dynamics, end user incentives program, market regulators behavior and communications amongst key stakeholders. 

Keywords: Electric vehicles, greenhouse gas emission reductions, market analysis, policy recommendations.

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Authors: H. B. Nguendo Yongsi, Thora M. Herrmann, A. Lutumba Ntetu, Rémy Sietchiping, Christopher Bryant

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Health problems linked to urban growth are current major concerns of developing countries. In 2002 and 2005, an interdisciplinary program “Populations et Espaces ├á Risques SANitaires" (PERSAN) was set up under the patronage of the Development and Research Institute. Centered on health in Cameroon-s urban environment, the program mainly sought to (i) identify diarrhoea risk factors in Yaoundé, (ii) to measure their prevalence and apprehend their spatial distribution. The crosssectional epidemiological study that was carried out revealed a diarrheic prevalence of 14.4% (437 cases of diarrhoea on the 3,034 children examined). Also, among risk factors studied, household refuse management methods used by city dwellers were statistically associated to these diarrhoeas. Moreover, it happened that levels of diarrhoeal attacks varied consistently from one neighbourhood to another because of the discrepancy urbanization process of the Yaoundé metropolis.

Keywords: Diarrhea, health risk, household refuses handling, sanitation, Yaoundé.

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Authors: E. T. L. Cöuras Ford, V. A. C.Vale, J. U. L Mendes

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The sun is an inexhaustible source and harness its potential both for heating and power generation is one of the most promising and necessary alternatives, mainly due to environmental issues. However, it should be noted that this has always been present in the generation of energy on earth, only indirectly, since it is responsible for virtually all other energy sources, such as generating source of evaporation of the water cycle, allowing the impoundment and the consequent generation of electricity (hydroelectric power); winds are caused by atmospheric induction caused by large scale solar radiation; petroleum, coal and natural gas were generated from waste plants and animals that originally derived energy required for their development of solar radiation. This paper presents a study on the feasibility of using solar energy for water heating in homes. A simplified methodology developed for formulation of solar heating operation model of water in alternative systems of solar energy in Brazil, and compared it to that in the international market. Across this research, it was possible to create new paradigms for alternative applications to the use of solar energy.

Keywords: Solar energy, solar heating, solar project.

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Authors: Touba Amirazodi

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Rapid process of urbanism development has increased the demand for some infrastructures such as supplying potable water, electricity network and transportation facilities and etc. Nonefficiency of the existing system with parallel managements of urban traffic management has increased the gap between supply and demand of traffic facilities. A sustainable transport system requires some activities more important than air pollution control, traffic or fuel consumption reduction and the studies show that there is no unique solution for solving complicated transportation problems and solving such a problem needs a comprehensive, dynamic and reliable mechanism. Sustainable transport management considers the effects of transportation development on economic efficiency, environmental issues, resources consumption, land use and social justice and helps reduction of environmental effects, increase of transportation system efficiency as well as improvement of social life and aims to enhance efficiency, goods transportation, provide services with minimum access problems that cannot be realized without reorganization of strategies, policies and plans.

Keywords: Sustainable Urban Transport, Environment, Social Justice, Air Pollution

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Authors: Kanhu Charan Bhuyan, Subhransu Padhee, Rajesh Kumar Patjoshi, Kamalakanta Mahapatra

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Fuel cell is an emerging technology in the field of renewable energy sources which has the capacity to replace conventional energy generation sources. Fuel cell utilizes hydrogen energy to produce electricity. The electricity generated by the fuel cell can’t be directly used for a specific application as it needs proper power conditioning. Moreover, the output power fluctuates with different operating conditions. To get a stable output power at an economic rate, power conditioning circuit is essential for fuel cell. This paper implements a two-staged power conditioning unit for fuel cell based distributed generation using hysteresis current control technique.

Keywords: Fuel cell, power conditioning unit, hysteresis control.

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Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Appicharla

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This paper presents the results of the modelling and analysis of the European Railway Traffic Management (ERTMS) safety critical incident to raise awareness of biases in systems engineering process on the Cambrian Railway in the UK using the RAIB 17/2019 as a primary input. The RAIB, the UK independent accident investigator, published the Report- RAIB 17/2019 giving the details of their investigation of the focal event in the form of immediate cause, causal factors and underlying factors and recommendations to prevent a repeat of the safety-critical incident on the Cambrian Line. The Systems for Investigation of Railway Interfaces (SIRI) is the Methodology used to model and analyse the safety-critical incident. The SIRI Methodology uses the Swiss Cheese Model to model the incident and identify latent failure conditions (potentially less than adequate conditions) by means of the Management Oversight and Risk Tree technique. The benefits of the SIRI Methodology are threefold: first is that it incorporates “Heuristics and Biases” approach, in the Management Oversight and Risk Tree technique to identify systematic errors. Civil engineering and programme management railway professionals are aware of role “optimism bias” plays in programme cost overruns and are aware of bow tie (fault and event tree) model-based safety risk modelling technique. However, the role of systematic errors due to “Heuristics and Biases” is not appreciated as yet. This overcomes the problems of omission of human and organisational factors from accident analysis. Second, the scope of the investigation includes all levels of the socio-technical system, including government, regulatory, railway safety bodies, duty holders, signalling firms and transport planners, and front-line staff such that lessons learned at the decision making and implementation level as well. Third, the author’s past accident case studies are supplemented with research pieces of evidence drawn from the practitioner’s and academic researchers’ publications as well. This is to discuss the role of system thinking to improve the decision making and risk management processes and practices in the IEC 15288 Systems Engineering standard, and in the industrial context such as the GB railways and Artificial Intelligence (AI) contexts as well.

Keywords: Accident analysis, AI algorithm internal audit, bounded rationality, Byzantine failures, heuristics and biases approach.

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Authors: Kudzai Ashley Tagwira, Michelle Marle Marais, Tracy Anne Ludwig, Rutendo Precious Chidziva, Mavis Nyaradzo Munodawafa, Wendy M. Wrench, Roman Tandlich

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Risk of infectious disease outbreaks is related to the hygiene among the population. To assess the actual risks and modify the relevant emergency procedures if necessary, a hygiene survey was conducted among undergraduate students on the Rhodes University campus. Soap was available to 10.5% and only 26.8% of the study participants followed proper hygiene in relation to food consumption. This combination increases the risk of infectious disease outbreaks at the campus. Around 83.6% were willing to wash their hands if soap was provided. Procurement and availability of soap in undergraduate residences on campus should be improved, as the total cost is estimated at only 2000 USD per annum. Awareness campaigns about food-related hygiene and the need for regular handwashing with soap should be run among Rhodes University students. If successful, rates of respiratory and hygiene-related diseases will be decreased and emergency health management simplified.

Keywords: Awareness, Food hygiene, Infectious disease spread, Undergraduate students.

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Authors: Siavash Asadi Ghajarloo

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Nowadays predicting political risk level of country has become a critical issue for investors who intend to achieve accurate information concerning stability of the business environments. Since, most of the times investors are layman and nonprofessional IT personnel; this paper aims to propose a framework named GECR in order to help nonexpert persons to discover political risk stability across time based on the political news and events. To achieve this goal, the Bayesian Networks approach was utilized for 186 political news of Pakistan as sample dataset. Bayesian Networks as an artificial intelligence approach has been employed in presented framework, since this is a powerful technique that can be applied to model uncertain domains. The results showed that our framework along with Bayesian Networks as decision support tool, predicted the political risk level with a high degree of accuracy.

Keywords: Bayesian Networks, Data mining, GECRframework, Predicting political risk.

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Authors: N. J. Imu, N. Rabbani, Md E. Hossain

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Achieving national climate goals requires transforming the energy system and increasing the use of renewable energy in Bangladesh as renewable energy offers an environmentally friendly energy supply. In view of this, Bangladesh has set a goal of 100% renewable power generation by 2050. Among all the renewable energy, solar is the most effective and popular source of renewable energy in Bangladesh. In order to build up on-grid and off-grid solar systems to increase energy transformation, monocrystalline type (highly efficient) solar module, and the polycrystalline type (low-efficient) solar module are commonly used. Due to their low price and availability, polycrystalline-type solar modules dominated the local market in the past years. However, in recent times the use of monocrystalline types modules has increased considerably owing to the significant decrease in price difference that existed between these two modules. Despite the deployment of both mono- and poly-crystalline modules in the market, the proliferation of low-quality solar panels are dominating the market resulting in reduced generation of solar electricity than expected. This situation is further aggravated by insufficient information regarding the effect of solar irradiation on solar module performance in relation to the quality of the materials used for the production of the module. This research aims to evaluate the efficiency of monocrystalline and polycrystalline solar modules that are available in Bangladesh by considering seasonal variations. Both types of solar modules have been tested for three different capacities 45W, 60W, and 100W in Dhaka regions to evaluate their power generation capability under Standard Test Conditions (STC). Module testing data were recorded twelve months in a full year from January to December. Data for solar irradiation were collected using HT304N while HT I-V400 multifunction instrument was used for testing voltage and current of photovoltaic (PV) systems and complete power quality analyzer. Results obtained in this study indicated differences between the efficiencies of polycrystalline and monocrystalline solar modules under the country’s solar irradiation. The average efficiencies of 45W, 60W, and 100W monocrystalline solar panels were recorded as 11.73%, 13.41%, and 15.37% respectively while for polycrystalline panels were 8.66%, 9.37%, and 12.34%. Monocrystalline solar panels, which offer greater working output than polycrystalline ones, are also represented by the Pearson Correlation value. The output of polycrystalline solar panels fluctuated highly with the changes in irradiation and temperature whereas monocrystalline panels were much stable.

Keywords: Solar energy, solar irradiation, efficiency, polycrystalline solar module, monocrystalline solar module, SPSS analysis.

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Authors: Sung-Hun Lee, Yun-Seong Lee, Jin-O Kim

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Reliability Centered Maintenance(RCM) is one of most widely used methods in the modern power system to schedule a maintenance cycle and determine the priority of inspection. In order to apply the RCM method to the Smart Grid, a precedence study for the new structure of rearranged system should be performed due to introduction of additional installation such as renewable and sustainable energy resources, energy storage devices and advanced metering infrastructure. This paper proposes a new method to evaluate the priority of maintenance and inspection of the power system facilities in the Smart Grid using the Risk Priority Number. In order to calculate that risk index, it is required that the reliability block diagram should be analyzed for the Smart Grid system. Finally, the feasible technical method is discussed to estimate the risk potential as part of the RCM procedure.

Keywords: Expert System, FMECA, Fuzzy Theory, Reliability Centered Maintenance, Risk Priority Number

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Authors: Tim Nedyalkov

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A business decision to move to the cloud brings fundamental changes in how an organization develops and delivers its Information Technology solutions. The accelerated pace of digital transformation across businesses and government agencies increases the reliance on cloud-based services. Collecting, managing, and retaining large amounts of data in cloud environments make information security and data privacy protection essential. It becomes even more important to understand what key factors drive successful cloud adoption following the commencement of the Privacy Amendment Notifiable Data Breaches (NDB) Act 2017 in Australia as the regulatory changes impact many organizations and industries. This quantitative correlational research investigated the governance, risk management, and compliance factors contributing to cloud security success. The factors influence the adoption of cloud computing within an organizational context after the commencement of the NDB scheme. The results and findings demonstrated that corporate information security policies, data storage location, management understanding of data governance responsibilities, and regular compliance assessments are the factors influencing cloud computing adoption. The research has implications for organizations, future researchers, practitioners, policymakers, and cloud computing providers to meet the rapidly changing regulatory and compliance requirements.

Keywords: Cloud compliance, cloud security, cloud security governance, data governance, privacy protection.

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Authors: Livinus A. Obasi, Augustine N. Ajah

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Biotechnology in recent times has tried to develop a mechanism whereby sustainable electricity can be generated by the activity of microorganisms on waste and renewable biomass (often regarded as “negative value”) in a device called microbial fuel cell, MFC. In this paper, we established how the biocatalytic activities of bacteria on organic matter (substrates) produced some electrons with the associated removal of some water pollution parameters; Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD) to the tune of 77.2% and 88.3% respectively from a petrochemical sanitary wastewater. The electricity generation was possible by conditioning the bacteria to operate anaerobically in one chamber referred to as the anode while the electrons are transferred to the fully aerated counter chamber containing the cathode. Power densities ranging from 12.83 mW/m² to 966.66 mW/m² were achieved using a dual-chamber starch membrane MFC experimental set-up. The maximum power density obtained in this research shows an improvement in the use of low cost MFC set up to achieve power production. Also, the level of organic matter removal from the sanitary waste water by the operation of this device clearly demonstrates its potential benefit in achieving an improved benign environment. The beauty of the MFCs is their potential utility in areas lacking electrical infrastructures like in most developing countries.

Keywords: Bioelectricity, chemical oxygen demand, microbial fuel cell, sanitary wastewater, wheat starch.

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Authors: Dutescu Adriana, Amariei Corneliu, Sahlian Daniela, Stanila Aurelian, Stanila Oana

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20 years of dentistry was a period of transition from communist to market economy but Romanian doctors have insufficient management knowledge. Recently, the need for modern management has increased due to technologies and superior materials appearance, as patient-s demands. Research goal is to increase efficiency by evaluating dental medical office cost categories in real pricing procedures. Empirical research is based on guided study that includes information about the association between categories of cost perception and therapeutic procedures commonly used in dental offices. Due to the obtained results to identify all the labours that make up a settled procedure costs were determined for each procedure. Financial evaluation software was created with the main functions: introducing and maintaining patient records, treatment and appointments made, procedures cost and monitoring office productivity. We believe that the study results can significantly improve the financial management of dental offices, increasing the effectiveness and quality of services.

Keywords: costs, financial methods, management.

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Authors: Jindřiška Šedová

Abstract:

In the past 20 years the economy of the Czech Republic has experienced substantial changes. In the 1990s the development was affected by the transformation which sought to establish the right conditions for privatization and creation of elementary market relations. In the last decade the characteristic elements such as private ownership and corresponding institutional framework have been strengthened. This development was marked by the accession of the Czech Republic to the EU. The Czech Republic is striving to reduce the difference between its level of economic development and the quality of institutional framework in comparison with other developed countries. The process of finding the adequate solutions has been hampered by the negative impact of the world financial crisis on the Czech Republic and the standard of living of its inhabitants. This contribution seeks to address the question of whether and to which extent the economic development of the transitive Czech economy is affected by the change in behaviour of households and their tendency to consumption, i.e. in the sense of reduction or increase in demand for goods and services. It aims to verify whether the increasing trend of household indebtedness and decreasing trend of saving pose a significant risk in the Czech Republic. At a general level the analysis aims to contribute to finding an answer to the question of whether the debt increase of Czech households is connected to the risk of "eating through" the borrowed money and whether Czech households risk falling into a debt trap. In addition to household indebtedness risks in the Czech Republic the analysis will focus on identification of specifics of the transformation phase of the Czech economy in comparison with the EU countries, or selected OECD countries.

Keywords: household indebtedness, household consumption, credits, financial literacy

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Authors: Nael Y. Zabel, Maged E. Georgy, Moheeb E. Ibrahim

Abstract:

A knowledge-based expert system with the acronym RASPE is developed as an application tool to help decision makers in construction companies make informed decisions about managing risks in pipeline construction projects. Choosing to use expert systems from all available artificial intelligence techniques is due to the fact that an expert system is more suited to representing a domain’s knowledge and the reasoning behind domain-specific decisions. The knowledge-based expert system can capture the knowledge in the form of conditional rules which represent various project scenarios and potential risk mitigation/response actions. The built knowledge in RASPE is utilized through the underlying inference engine that allows the firing of rules relevant to a project scenario into consideration. Paper provides an overview of the knowledge acquisition process and goes about describing the knowledge structure which is divided up into four major modules. The paper shows one module in full detail for illustration purposes and concludes with insightful remarks.

Keywords: Expert System, Knowledge Management, Pipeline Projects, Risk Mismanagement.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present two different approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical services.

Keywords: ANFIS, Binary logistic regression, Financialdistress, Panel data

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Authors: Vanessa de Cillos Silva, Fabrício José Piacente, Sônia Maria De Stefano Piedade, Valter Arthur

Abstract:

The increasing concern in relation to safety and hygiene of food consumption makes it so that food conservation is studied. Food radiation is a technique used for conservation, but many consumers associate this technique with dangers such as environmental contamination and development of diseases. This research had the objective of evaluating the acceptance of radiated products by the consumer market in the city of Piracicaba/SP-Brasil. The methodology adopted was the application of a questionnaire in the city’s supermarkets. After the application, the data was tabulated and analyzed. It was observed that the majority of interviewees would not eat irradiated food. The unfamiliarity and questions about the safety of irradiated food were the main causes of your rejection.

Keywords: Irradiation, market acceptance, questionnaire, storage.

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