Search results for: forecast of behavior

Authors: Rabeb Triki, Hassene Djemel, Mounir Baccar

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Surface scraping is a passive heat transfer enhancement technique that is directly used in scraped surface heat exchanger (SSHE). The scraping action prevents the accumulation of the product on the inner wall, which intensifies the heat transfer and avoids the formation of dead zones. SSHEs are widely used in industry for several applications such as crystallization, sterilization, freezing, gelatinization, and many other continuous processes. They are designed to deal with products that are viscous, sticky or that contain particulate matter. This research work presents a three-dimensional numerical simulation of the coupled thermal and hydrodynamic behavior within a SSHE which includes Archimedes’ screw instead of scraper blades. The finite volume Fluent 15.0 was used to solve continuity, momentum and energy equations using multiple reference frame formulation. The process fluid investigated under this study is the pure glycerin. Different geometrical parameters were studied in the case of steady, non-isothermal, laminar flow. In particular, attention is focused on the effect of the conicity of the rotor and the pitch of Archimedes’ screw on temperature and velocity distribution and heat transfer rate. Numerical investigations show that the increase of the number of turns in the screw from five to seven turns leads to amelioration of heat transfer coefficient, and the increase of the conicity of the rotor from 0.1 to 0.15 leads to an increase in the rate of heat transfer. Further studies should investigate the effect of different operating parameters (axial and rotational Reynolds number) on the hydrodynamic and thermal behavior of the SSHE.

Keywords: ANSYS-Fluent, hydrodynamic behavior, SSHE, thermal behavior.

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Authors: Eray Ozbek, Ilker Kalkan, S. Oguzhan Akbas, Sabahattin Aykac

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The contribution of the infill walls to the overall earthquake response of a structure is limited and this contribution is generally ignored in the analyses. Strengthening of the infill walls through different techniques has been and is being studied extensively in the literature to increase this limited contribution and the ductilities and energy absorption capacities of the infill walls to create non-structural components where the earthquake-induced energy can be absorbed without damaging the bearing components of the structural frame. The present paper summarizes an extensive research project dedicated to investigate the effects of strengthening the brick infill walls of a reinforced concrete (RC) frame on its lateral earthquake response. Perforated steel plates were used in strengthening due to several reasons, including the ductility and high deformation capacity of these plates, the fire resistant, recyclable and non-cancerogenic nature of mild steel, and the ease of installation and removal of the plates to the wall with the help of anchor bolts only. Furthermore, epoxy, which increases the cost and amount of labor of the strengthening process, is not needed in this technique. The individual behavior of the strengthened walls under monotonic diagonal and lateral reversed cyclic loading was investigated within the scope of the study. Upon achieving brilliant results, RC frames with strengthened infill walls were tested and are being tested to examine the influence of this strengthening technique on the overall behavior of the RC frames. Tests on the wall and frame specimens indicated that the perforated steel plates contribute to the lateral strength, rigidity, ductility and energy absorption capacity of the wall and the infilled frame to a major extent.

Keywords: Infill wall, Strengthening, External plate, Earthquake Behavior.

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Authors: Nugzar Todua, Charita Jashi

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This paper is focusing on the attitude of Georgian consumers toward social media, influence of social media on consumer buying behavior. The purpose of this paper is to explore the usage of social media marketing for small business companies of Georgia. The result of marketing research has revealed that social webs are mostly used by Georgian consumers, but they have little impact on the buying decision. The research method was exploratory and descriptive. Conclusions summarize the research results and offers insight to provide better understandings of consumers demand and implementation of marketing strategy through social media in Georgia.

Keywords: Marketing Research, Purchasing behavior, Social Media Marketing, Small Business, Tourism Industry.

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Authors: Philip Doganis, Eleni Aggelogiannaki, Haralambos Sarimveis

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Model Predictive Control has been previously applied to supply chain problems with promising results; however hitherto proposed systems possessed no information on future demand. A forecasting methodology will surely promote the efficiency of control actions by providing insight on the future. A complete supply chain management framework that is based on Model Predictive Control (MPC) and Time Series Forecasting will be presented in this paper. The proposed framework will be tested on industrial data in order to assess the efficiency of the method and the impact of forecast accuracy on overall control performance of the supply chain. To this end, forecasting methodologies with different characteristics will be implemented on test data to generate forecasts that will serve as input to the Model Predictive Control module.

Keywords: Forecasting, Model predictive control, production planning.

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Authors: Hassen M. Ouakad

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In this paper, the influence of van der Waals, as well as electrostatic forces on the structural behavior of MEMS and NEMS actuators, has been investigated using of a Euler-Bernoulli beam continuous model. In the proposed nonlinear model, the electrostatic fringing-fields and the mid-plane stretching (geometric nonlinearity) effects have been considered. The nonlinear integro-differential equation governing the static structural behavior of the actuator has been derived. An original Galerkin-based reduced-order model has been developed to avoid problems arising from the nonlinearities in the differential equation. The obtained reduced-order model equations have been solved numerically using the Newton-Raphson method. The basic design parameters such as the pull-in parameters (voltage and deflection at pull-in), as well as the detachment length due to the van der Waals force of some investigated micro- and nano-actuators have been calculated. The obtained numerical results have been compared with some other existing methods (finite-elements method and finite-difference method) and the comparison showed good agreement among all assumed numerical techniques.

Keywords: MEMS, NEMS, fringing-fields, mid-plane stretching, Galerkin method.

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Authors: Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi

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In this paper, the BP neural network model is established to predict the carbon trading price and carbon trading volume in Shanghai City. First of all, we find the data of carbon trading price and carbon trading volume in Shanghai City from September 30, 2015 to December 23, 2016. The carbon trading price and trading volume data were processed to get the average value of each 5, 10, 20, 30, and 60 carbon trading price and trading volume. Then, these data are used as input of BP neural network model. Finally, after the training of BP neural network, the prediction values of Shanghai carbon trading price and trading volume are obtained, and the model is tested.

Keywords: Carbon trading price, carbon trading volume, BP neural network model, Shanghai City.

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Authors: Karin Kandananond

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The nature of consumer products causes the difficulty in forecasting the future demands and the accuracy of the forecasts significantly affects the overall performance of the supply chain system. In this study, two data mining methods, artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM), were utilized to predict the demand of consumer products. The training data used was the actual demand of six different products from a consumer product company in Thailand. The results indicated that SVM had a better forecast quality (in term of MAPE) than ANN in every category of products. Moreover, another important finding was the margin difference of MAPE from these two methods was significantly high when the data was highly correlated.

Keywords: Artificial neural network (ANN), Bullwhip effect, Consumer products, Demand forecasting, Supply chain, Support vector machine (SVM).

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Authors: Hadas Sopher, Davide Schaumann, Yehuda E. Kalay

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This paper addresses the shortcomings of architectural computation tools in representing human behavior in built environments, prior to construction and occupancy of those environments. Evaluating whether a design fits the needs of its future users is currently done solely post construction, or is based on the knowledge and intuition of the designer. This issue is of high importance when designing complex buildings such as hospitals, where the quality of treatment as well as patient and staff satisfaction are of major concern. Existing computational pre-occupancy human behavior evaluation methods are geared mainly to test ergonomic issues, such as wheelchair accessibility, emergency egress, etc. As such, they rely on Agent Based Modeling (ABM) techniques, which emphasize the individual user. Yet we know that most human activities are social, and involve a number of actors working together, which ABM methods cannot handle. Therefore, we present an event-based model that manages the interaction between multiple Actors, Spaces, and Activities, to describe dynamically how people use spaces. This approach requires expanding the computational representation of Actors beyond their physical description, to include psychological, social, cultural, and other parameters. The model presented in this paper includes cognitive abilities and rules that describe the response of actors to their physical and social surroundings, based on the actors’ internal status. The model has been applied in a simulation of hospital wards, and showed adaptability to a wide variety of situated behaviors and interactions.

Keywords: Agent based modeling, architectural design evaluation, event modeling, human behavior simulation, spatial cognition.

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Authors: Dezie L. Warganegara, Dewi Tamara

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The objectives of this study is to investigate the existence of the sticky cost behavior of firms listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) and to find evidence on the effects of sticky operating expenses (SG&A expenses) on profitability of firms. For the first objective, this study finds that the sticky cost behavior does exist. For the second objective, this study finds that the stickier the operating expenses the lesser future profitability of the firms. This study concludes that sticky cost affects negatively to the performance and, therefore, firms should include flexibility in designing the cost structure of their firms.

Keywords: Operating Expenses, Profitability, SG&A, Sticky Costs, Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

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Authors: Fahim Kahlouche, Alaoua Bouaicha, Sihem Chaîbeddra, Sid-Ali Rafa, Abdelhamid Benouali

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A designing of a structure requires its realization on rough or sloping ground. Besides the problem of the stability of the landslide, the behavior of the foundations that are bearing the structure is influenced by the destabilizing effect of the ground’s slope. This article focuses on the analysis of the slope stability exposed to loading by introducing the different factors influencing the slope’s behavior on the one hand, and on the influence of this slope on the foundation’s behavior on the other hand. This study is about the elastoplastic modelization using FLAC 2D. This software is based on the finite difference method, which is one of the older methods of numeric resolution of differential equations system with initial and boundary conditions. It was developed for the geotechnical simulation calculation. The aim of this simulation is to demonstrate the notable effect of shear modulus « G », cohesion « C », inclination angle (edge) « β », and distance between the foundation and the head of the slope on the stability of the slope as well as the stability of the foundation. In our simulation, the slope is constituted by homogenous ground. The foundation is considered as rigid/hard; therefore, the loading is made by the application of the vertical strengths on the nodes which represent the contact between the foundation and the ground. 

Keywords: Slope, shallow foundation, numeric method, FLAC 2D.

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Authors: Ayse Bicer, Filiz Kar

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This paper describes an experimental investigation of the drying behavior and conditions of rosehip in a convective cyclone-type dryer. Drying experiments were conducted at air inlet temperatures of 50, 60 and 70 o C and air velocities of 0.5, 1 and 1.5 ms–1. The parametric values obtained from the experiments were fitted to the Newton mathematical models. Consequently, the drying model developed by Newton model showed good agreement with the data obtained from the experiments. Concluding, it was obtained that; (i) the temperature is the major effect on the drying process, (ii) air velocity has low effect on the drying of rosehip, (iii) the C-vitamin is observed to change according to the temperature, moisture, drying time and flow types. The changing ratio is found to be in the range of 0.70-0.74.

Keywords: Rosehip, drying, food quality.

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Authors: Nima Farkhondeh Jahromi, George Papaefthymiou, Lou van der Sluis

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The incorporation of renewable energy sources for the sustainable electricity production is undertaking a more prominent role in electric power systems. Thus, it will be an indispensable incident that the characteristics of future power networks, their prospective stability for instance, get influenced by the imposed features of sustainable energy sources. One of the distinctive attributes of the sustainable energy sources is exhibiting the stochastic behavior. This paper investigates the impacts of this stochastic behavior on the small disturbance rotor angle stability in the upcoming electric power networks. Considering the various types of renewable energy sources and the vast variety of system configurations, the sensitivity analysis can be an efficient breakthrough towards generalizing the effects of new energy sources on the concept of stability. In this paper, the definition of small disturbance angle stability for future power systems and the iterative-stochastic way of its analysis are presented. Also, the effects of system parameters on this type of stability are described by performing a sensitivity analysis for an electric power test system.

Keywords: Power systems stability, Renewable energy sources, Stochastic behavior, Small disturbance rotor angle stability.

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Authors: Khaled S. Ragab, Ahmed S. Eisa

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This paper investigates experimentally and analytically the torsion behavior of steel fibered high strength self compacting concrete beams reinforced by GFRP bars. Steel fibered high strength self compacting concrete (SFHSSCC) and GFRP bars became in the recent decades a very important materials in the structural engineering field. The use of GFRP bars to replace steel bars has emerged as one of the many techniques put forward to enhance the corrosion resistance of reinforced concrete structures. High strength concrete and GFRP bars attract designers and architects as it allows improving the durability as well as the esthetics of a construction. One of the trends in SFHSSCC structures is to provide their ductile behavior and additional goal is to limit development and propagation of macro-cracks in the body of SFHSSCC elements. SFHSSCC and GFRP bars are tough, improve the workability, enhance the corrosion resistance of reinforced concrete structures, and demonstrate high residual strengths after appearance of the first crack. Experimental studies were carried out to select effective fiber contents. Three types of volume fraction from hooked shape steel fibers are used in this study, the hooked steel fibers were evaluated in volume fractions ranging between 0.0%, 0.75% and 1.5%. The beams shape is chosen to create the required forces (i.e. torsion and bending moments simultaneously) on the test zone. A total of seven beams were tested, classified into three groups. All beams, have 200cm length, cross section of 10×20cm, longitudinal bottom reinforcement of 3

Keywords: Self compacting concrete, torsion behavior, steel fiber, steel fiber reinforced high strength self compacting concrete (SFRHSCC), GFRP bars.

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Authors: Mostafa Osman, Ata El-Kareim Shoeib Soliman

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Since columns are the most important elements of the structures, failure of one column in a critical location can cause a progressive collapse. In this respect, the repair and strengthening of columns is a very important subject to reduce the building failure and to keep the columns capacity. Twenty columns with different parameters is tested and analysis. Eleven typical confined reinforced concrete (RC) columns with different types of techniques are assessment. And also, four confined concrete columns with plastic tube (PVC) are tested with and with four paralleling tested of unconfined plain concrete. The techniques of confined RC columns are mortar strengthening, Steel rings strengthening, FRP strengthening. Moreover, the technique of confined plain concrete (PC) column is used PVC tubes. The columns are tested under uniaxial compressive loads studied the effect of confinement on the structural behavior of circular RC columns. Test results for each column are presented in the form of crack patterns, stress-strain curves. Test results show that confining of the RC columns using different techniques of strengthening results significant improvement of the general behavior of the columns and can used in construction. And also, tested confined PC columns with PVC tubes results shown that the confined PC with PVC tubes can be used in economical building. The theoretical model for predicted column capacity is founded with experimental factor depends on the confined techniques used and the strain reduction.

Keywords: Confined reinforced concrete column, CFRP, GFRP, Mortar.

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Authors: Mohsen Saleh Asheghabadi, Alireza Jafari Jebeli

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Increasing population growth requires more sustainable development of energy. This non-contaminated energy has an inexhaustible energy source. One of the vital parameters in such structures is the choice of foundation type. Suction caissons are now used extensively worldwide for offshore wind turbine. Considering the presence of a number of offshore wind farms in earthquake areas, the study of the seismic behavior of suction caisson is necessary for better design. In this paper, the results obtained from three suction caisson models with different diameter (D) and skirt length (L) in saturated sand were compared with centrifuge test results. All models are analyzed using 3D finite element (FE) method taking account of elasto-plastic Mohr–Coulomb constitutive model for soil which is available in the ABAQUS library. The earthquake load applied to the base of models with a maximum acceleration of 0.65g. The results showed that numerical method is in relative good agreement with centrifuge results. The settlement and rotation of foundation decrease by increasing the skirt length and foundation diameter. The sand soil outside the caisson is prone to liquefaction due to its low confinement.

Keywords: Liquefaction, suction caisson foundation, offshore wind turbine, numerical analysis, seismic behavior.

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Authors: Hanaa E.Sayed, Hossam A. Gabbar, Shigeji Miyazaki

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This paper presents Faults Forecasting System (FFS) that utilizes statistical forecasting techniques in analyzing process variables data in order to forecast faults occurrences. FFS is proposing new idea in detecting faults. Current techniques used in faults detection are based on analyzing the current status of the system variables in order to check if the current status is fault or not. FFS is using forecasting techniques to predict future timing for faults before it happens. Proposed model is applying subset modeling strategy and Bayesian approach in order to decrease dimensionality of the process variables and improve faults forecasting accuracy. A practical experiment, designed and implemented in Okayama University, Japan, is implemented, and the comparison shows that our proposed model is showing high forecasting accuracy and BEFORE-TIME.

Keywords: Bayesian Techniques, Faults Detection, Forecasting techniques, Multivariate Analysis.

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Authors: J. Winkler, S. Chovancová

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The article deals with the relation between rainfall in selected months and subsequent weed infestation of spring barley. The field experiment was performed at Mendel University agricultural enterprise in Žabčice, Czech Republic. Weed infestation was measured in spring barley vegetation in years 2004 to 2012. Barley was grown in three tillage variants: conventional tillage technology (CT), minimization tillage technology (MT), and no tillage (NT). Precipitation was recorded in one-day intervals. Monthly precipitation was calculated from the measured values in the months of October through to April. The technique of canonical correspondence analysis was applied for further statistical processing. 41 different species of weeds were found in the course of the 9-year monitoring period. The results clearly show that precipitation affects the incidence of most weed species in the selected months, but acts differently in the monitored variants of tillage technologies.

Keywords: Weeds, precipitation, tillage, weed infestation forecast.

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Authors: S. Lecheb, A. Nour, A. Chellil, H. Mechakra, N. Hamad, H. Kebir

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This study concerned the dynamic behavior of the wind turbine rotor. Before all we have studied the loads applied to the rotor, which allows the knowledge their effect on the fatigue, also studied the rotor with longitudinal crack in order to determine stress, strain and displacement. Firstly we compared the first six modes shapes between cracking and uncracking of HAWT rotor. Secondly we show show evolution of first six natural frequencies with longitudinal crack propagation. Finally we conclude that the residual change in the natural frequencies can be used as in shaft crack diagnosis predictive maintenance.

Keywords: Wind turbine rotor, natural frequencies, longitudinal crack growth, life time.

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Authors: A. Nedjar, S. Aguib, M. Meloussi, T. Djedid, A. Khebli, R. Harhout, L. Kobzili, N. Chikh, M. Tourab

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Finding the mechanical properties of magnetorheological elastomers (MREs) is fundamental to create smart materials and devices with desired properties and functionalities. The MREs properties, in shear mode, have been extensively investigated, but these have been less exploited with frequency-temperature dependence. In this article, we studied the performance of MREs with frequency-temperature dependence. The elastic modulus, loss modulus and loss factor of MREs were studied under different temperature values; different values of the magnetic field and different values of the frequency. The results found showed the interest of these active materials in different industrial sectors.

Keywords: Magnetorheological elastomer, mechanical behavior, frequency, temperature.

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Authors: Chiung-Hui Chen

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The Internet of Things (IoT) was designed for widespread convenience. With the smart tag and the sensing network, a large quantity of dynamic information is immediately presented in the IoT. Through the internal communication and interaction, meaningful objects provide real-time services for users. Therefore, the service with appropriate decision-making has become an essential issue. Based on the science of human behavior, this study employed the environment model to record the time sequences and locations of different behaviors and adopted the probability module of the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model for the inference. The statistical analysis was conducted to achieve the following objectives: First, define user behaviors and predict the user behavior routes with the environment model to analyze user purposes. Second, construct the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model according to the logic framework, and establish the sequential intensity among behaviors to get acquainted with the use and activity fabric of the intelligent environment. Third, establish the intensity of the relation between the probability of objects’ being used and the objects. The indicator can describe the possible limitations of the mechanism. As the process is recorded in the information of the system created in this study, these data can be reused to adjust the procedure of intelligent design services.

Keywords: Behavior, big data, hierarchical Hidden Markov Model, intelligent object.

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Authors: R. Mechgoug, A. Titaouine

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Fuzzy systems have been successfully used for exchange rate forecasting. However, fuzzy system is very confusing and complex to be designed by an expert, as there is a large set of parameters (fuzzy knowledge base) that must be selected, it is not a simple task to select the appropriate fuzzy knowledge base for an exchange rate forecasting. The researchers often look the effect of fuzzy knowledge base on the performances of fuzzy system forecasting. This paper proposes a genetic fuzzy predictor to forecast the future value of daily US Dollar/Euro exchange rate time’s series. A range of methodologies based on a set of fuzzy predictor’s which allow the forecasting of the same time series, but with a different fuzzy partition. Each fuzzy predictor is built from two stages, where each stage is performed by a real genetic algorithm.

Keywords: Foreign exchange rate, time series forecasting, Fuzzy System, and Genetic Algorithm.

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Authors: Syeda Maria Ali Shah, Asif Mansoor, Talat Sharafat Rehmani, Safia Mirza

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The stock market of any country acts as a predictor of the economy. The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted the global financial markets. Besides, it has also critically affected the economy of Pakistan. In this study, we consider the role of the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) with regard to the Pakistan Stock Exchange and quantify the impact on macroeconomic variables in presence of COVID-19. The suitable macroeconomic variables are used to quantify the impact of COVID-19 by developing the stochastic model. The sufficiency of the computed model is attained by means of available techniques in the literature. The estimated equations are used to forecast the impact of pandemic on macroeconomic variables. The constructed model can help the policymakers take counteractive measures for restricting the influence of viruses on the Karachi Stock Market.

Keywords: COVID-19, Karachi Stock Market, macroeconomic variables, stochastic model, forecasting.

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Authors: Barman P.J, Kartha S A, Gupta S, Pradhan B.

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Column leach test has been performed to examine the behavior of leaching of sodium, calcium and potassium in landfills. In the column leach apparatus, two different layers of contaminated and uncontaminated soils of different height ratios (ratio of depth of contaminated soil to the depth of uncontaminated soil) are taken. Water is poured from an overhead tank at a particular flowrate to the inlet of the soil column for a certain ponding depth over the contaminated soil. Subsequent infiltration causes leaching and the leachates are collected from the bottom of the column. The concentrations of Na, Ca and K in the leachate are measured using flame photometry. The experiments are further extended by changing the rates of flow from the overhead tank to the inlet of the column in achieving the same ponding depth. The experiments are performed for different scenarios in which the height ratios are altered and the variations of concentrations of Na, Ca, and K are observed. The study brings an estimation of leaching in landfill sites for different heights and precipitation intensity where a ponding depth is maintained over the landfill. It has been observed that the leaching behavior of Na, Ca, and K are not similar. Calcium exhibits highest amount of leaching compared to Sodium and Potassium under similar experimental conditions.

Keywords: Column leaching, flow rate, uncontaminated soil, contaminated soil, concentration, height ratio.

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Authors: Khalid Ahmed Elrabie Abdelrasoul

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The present study was carried out on Sahiwal cattle bulls maintained at the Artificial Breeding Complex, NDRI, Karnal, Hayana, India, to assess the effect of cooling using mist cooling and fanning on Sahiwal bulls in the dry hot summer season. Fourteen Sahiwal bulls were divided into two groups of seven each. Sexual behavior and semen quality traits considered were: Reaction time (RT), Dismounting time (DMT), Total time taken in mounts (TTTM), Flehmen response (FR), Erection Score (ES), Protrusion Score (PS), Intensity of thrust (ITS), Temperament Score (TS), Libido Score (LS), Semen volume, Physical appearance, Mass activity, Initial progressive motility, Non-eosinophilic spermatozoa count (NESC) and post thaw motility percent. Data were analyzed by least squares technique. Group-1 was the control, whereas group-2 (treatment group) bulls were exposed to mist cooling and fanning (thrice a day 15 min each) in the dry hot summer season. Group-2 showed significantly (p < 0.01) higher value in DMT (sec), ES, PS, ITS, LS, semen volume (ml), semen color density, mass activity, initial motility, progressive motility and live sperm.

Keywords: Mist cooling, Sahiwal bulls, semen quality, sexual behavior.

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Authors: K. Mushtaq, M. Umar

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The research aims to study the association between job satisfaction, motivation and the five factors of organizational citizenship behavior (i.e. Altruism, Conscientiousness, Sportsmanship, Courtesy and Civic virtue) among Public Sector Employees in Pakistan. In this research Structure Equation Modeling with confirmatory factor analysis was used to test the relationship between two independent and five dependent variables. Data was collected through questionnaire survey from 152 Public Servants Working in Gujrat District-Pakistan in different capacities. Stratified Random Sampling Technique was used to conduct this survey. The results of the study indicate that five factors of OCB have positive significant relation with both motivation and job satisfaction except the relationship of Civic Virtue with Motivation. The research findings implicate that factors other than motivation and job satisfaction may also affect OCB. Likewise, all the five factors of OCB may not be present in all populations. Thus, Managers must concentrate on increasing motivation and job satisfaction to increase OCB. Furthermore, the present research gives a direction to future researchers to use more independent variables (e.g. Culture, leadership, workplace environment, various job attitudes, types of motivation, etc.) on different types of populations with larger sample size in order to find the reasons behind insignificant relationship of civic virtue with Motivation in the research in hand and to generalize the tested model.

Keywords: Five Factors of Organizational Citizenship Behavior (OCB), Motivation, Job Satisfaction, Public Sector Employees in Pakistan.

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Authors: Y. Si Youcef, M. Chemrouk

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The present work presents a method of calculating the ductility of rectangular sections of beams considering nonlinear behavior of concrete and steel. This calculation procedure allows us to trace the curvature of the section according to the bending moment, and consequently deduce ductility. It also allowed us to study the various parameters that affect the value of the ductility. A comparison of the effect of maximum rates of tension steel, adopted by the codes, ACI [1], EC8 [2] and RPA [3] on the value of the ductility was made. It was concluded that the maximum rate of steels permitted by the ACI [1] codes and RPA [3] are almost similar in their effect on the ductility and too high. Therefore, the ductility mobilized in case of an earthquake is low, the inverse of code EC8 [2]. Recommendations have been made in this direction.

Keywords: Ductility, beam, reinforced concrete, seismic code, relationship, time bending, resistance, non-linear behavior.

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Authors: Kunya Bowornchockchai

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The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0)  without constant and the forecasting equation is Y_t = Y_t-1 + 0.3691 (Y_t-1 - Y_t-2) When Y_t  is the time series data at time t, respectively.

Keywords: Box–Jenkins Method, Holt’s Method, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

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Authors: M. Boukhrouk, R. Ed-Dali

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Outbound tourism in Morocco, as in the majority of developing countries, reveals some of the aspects of inequality between the north and the south. Considered by some researchers as one of the facets of the development crisis, access to tourism and especially international tourism is a chance for a small minority with financial means, while the vast portions of the population dream rather of immigrating to a developed country for the sake of improving their standard of living. The right to travel is also limited by visa requirements, procedures in host countries, security and technical measures and creates discrimination in the practice of tourism. These conditions do not seem to be favorable to the democratization of the practice of international tourism for the populations of the southern countries. This paper is a contribution to the reading of the trends of outbound tourism in developing countries through the example of Morocco. It highlights the different aspects of Moroccan outbound tourism, destinations and the behavior of tourists through an analysis of the offer of a sample of 50 travel agencies. In the same vein, it offers a reading grid of the possibilities offered for the development of outbound tourism and the various existing obstacles to the democratization of international outbound tourism in the southern countries. This reading reveals the transformation in the behavior of Moroccan international tourists as well as the profound changes in Moroccan society, through a model of statistical analysis.

Keywords: Demand, Hajj, Morocco, outbound tourism, tendency, Umrah.

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Authors: F.S.Tashimova, A. Mirzabekova, Z. Ismagambetova, Y. Massanov, Z. Gabit

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In the globalization process, when the struggle for minds and values of the people is taking place, the impact of the virtual space can cause unexpected effects and consequences in the process of adjustment of young people in this world. Their special significance is defined by unconscious influence on the underlying process of meaning and therefore the values preached by them are much more effective and affect both the personal characteristics and the peculiarities of adjustment process. Related to this the challenge is to identify factors influencing the reflection characteristics of virtual subjects and measures their impact on the personal characteristics of the students.

Keywords: Coping behavior, overcoming, personalization (representation), psychological defense, values, virtual space, virtual subject, subjective reflection.

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Authors: Lawrence I. Onyeji, Girish M. Kale, M. Bijan Kermani

Abstract:

Corrosion problem which exists in every stage of oil and gas production has been a great challenge to the operators in the industry. The conventional carbon steel with all its inherent advantages has been adjudged susceptible to the aggressive corrosion environment of oilfield. This has aroused increased interest in the use of micro alloyed steels for oil and gas production and transportation. The corrosion behavior of three commercially supplied micro alloyed steels designated as A, B, and C have been investigated with API 5L X65 as reference samples. Electrochemical corrosion tests were conducted in an unbuffered 3.5 wt% NaCl solution saturated with CO₂ at 30 ⁰C for 24 hours. Pre-corrosion analyses revealed that samples A, B and X65 consist of ferrite-pearlite microstructures but with different grain sizes, shapes and distribution whereas sample C has bainitic microstructure with dispersed acicular ferrites. The results of the electrochemical corrosion tests showed that within the experimental conditions, the corrosion rate of the samples can be ranked as CR_(A)< CR_(X65)< CR_(B)< CR_(C). These results are attributed to difference in microstructures of the samples as depicted by ASTM grain size number in accordance with ASTM E112-12 Standard and ferrite-pearlite volume fractions determined by ImageJ Fiji grain size analysis software.

Keywords: Carbon dioxide corrosion, corrosion behavior, micro-alloyed steel, microstructures.

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