Search results for: dynamic load cases.

Authors: Nino Paresashvili, Nino Abesadze

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The modern world faces huge challenges. Globalization changed the socio-economic conditions of many countries. The current processes in the global environment have a different impact on countries with different cultures. However, an alleviation of poverty and improvement of living conditions is still the basic challenge for the majority of countries, because much of the population still lives under the official threshold of poverty. It is very important to stimulate youth employment. In order to prepare young people for the labour market, it is essential to provide them with the appropriate professional skills and knowledge. It is necessary to plan efficient activities for decreasing an unemployment rate and for developing the perfect mechanisms for regulation of a labour market. Such planning requires thorough study and analysis of existing reality, as well as development of corresponding mechanisms. Statistical analysis of unemployment is one of the main platforms for regulation of the labour market key mechanisms. The corresponding statistical methods should be used in the study process. Such methods are observation, gathering, grouping, and calculation of the generalized indicators. Unemployment is one of the most severe socioeconomic problems in Georgia. According to the past as well as the current statistics, unemployment rates always have been the most problematic issue to resolve for policy makers. Analytical works towards to the above-mentioned problem will be the basis for the next sustainable steps to solve the main problem. The results of the study showed that the choice of young people is not often due to their inclinations, their interests and the labour market demand. That is why the wrong professional orientation of young people in most cases leads to their unemployment. At the same time, it was shown that there are a number of professions in the labour market with a high demand because of the deficit the appropriate specialties. To achieve healthy competitiveness in youth employment, it is necessary to formulate regional employment programs with taking into account the regional infrastructure specifications.

Keywords: Unemployment. analysis, methods, tendencies, regulation mechanisms.

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Authors: Mikel Niño, Roberto V. Zicari, Todor Ivanov, Kim Hee, Naveed Mushtaq, Marten Rosselli, Concha Sánchez-Ocaña, Karsten Tolle, José Miguel Blanco, Arantza Illarramendi, Jörg Besier, Harry Underwood

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One of the application fields for data analysis techniques and technologies gaining momentum is the area of social good or “common good”, covering cases related to humanitarian crises, global health care, or ecology and environmental issues, among others. The promotion of data-driven projects in this field aims at increasing the efficacy and efficiency of social initiatives, improving the way these actions help humanity in general and people in need in particular. This application field, however, poses its own barriers and challenges when developing data-driven projects, lagging behind in comparison with other scenarios. These challenges derive from aspects such as the scope and scale of the social issue to solve, cultural and political barriers, the skills of main stakeholders and the technological resources available, the motivation to be engaged in such projects, or the ethical and legal issues related to sensitive data. This paper analyzes the application of data projects in the field of social good, reviewing its current state and noteworthy initiatives, and presenting a framework covering the key aspects to analyze in such projects. The goal is to provide guidelines to understand the main challenges and opportunities for this type of data project, as well as identifying the main differential issues compared to “classical” data projects in general. A case study is presented on the initial steps and stakeholder analysis of a data project for the inclusion of refugees in the city of Frankfurt, Germany, in order to empirically confront the framework with a real example.

Keywords: Data-Driven projects, humanitarian operations, personal and sensitive data, social good, stakeholders analysis.

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Authors: Hoai Nam Huynh, Edouard Rivière-Lorphèvre, Olivier Verlinden

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Manufacturing technologies are becoming continuously more diversified over the years. The increasing use of robots for various applications such as assembling, painting, welding has also affected the field of machining. Machining robots can deal with larger workspaces than conventional machine-tools at a lower cost and thus represent a very promising alternative for machining applications. Furthermore, their inherent structure ensures them a great flexibility of motion to reach any location on the workpiece with the desired orientation. Nevertheless, machining robots suffer from a lack of stiffness at their joints restricting their use to applications involving low cutting forces especially finishing operations. Vibratory instabilities may also happen while machining and deteriorate the precision leading to scrap parts. Some researchers are therefore concerned with the identification of optimal parameters in robotic machining. This paper continues the development of a virtual robotic machining simulator in order to find optimized cutting parameters in terms of depth of cut or feed per tooth for example. The simulation environment combines an in-house milling routine (DyStaMill) achieving the computation of cutting forces and material removal with an in-house multibody library (EasyDyn) which is used to build a dynamic model of a 3-DOF planar robot with flexible links. The position of the robot end-effector submitted to milling forces is controlled through an inverse kinematics scheme while controlling the position of its joints separately. Each joint is actuated through a servomotor for which the transfer function has been computed in order to tune the corresponding controller. The output results feature the evolution of the cutting forces when the robot structure is deformable or not and the tracking errors of the end-effector. Illustrations of the resulting machined surfaces are also presented. The consideration of the links flexibility has highlighted an increase of the cutting forces magnitude. This proof of concept will aim to enrich the database of results in robotic machining for potential improvements in production.

Keywords: Control, machining, multibody, robotic, simulation.

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Authors: Ph. Fauquet-Alekhine

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Decision-making occurs several times an hour when working in high risk industry and an erroneous choice might have undesirable outcomes for people and the environment surrounding the industrial plant. Industrial decisions are very often made in a context of acute stress. Time pressure is a crucial stressor leading decision makers sometimes to boost up the decision-making process and if it is not possible then shift to the simplest strategy. We thus found it interesting to update the characterization of the stress factors impairing decision-making at Chinon Nuclear Power Plant (France) in order to optimize decision making contexts and/or associated processes. The investigation was based on the analysis of reports addressing safety events over the last 3 years. Among 93 reports, those explicitly addressing decision-making issues were identified. Characterization of each event was undertaken in terms of three criteria: stressors, biases impairing decision making and weaknesses of the decision-making process. The statistical analysis showed that biases were distributed over 10 possibilities among which the hypothesis confirmation bias was clearly salient. No significant correlation was found between criteria. The analysis indicated that the main stressor was time pressure and highlights an unexpected form of stressor: the trust asymmetry principle of the expert. The analysis led to the conclusion that this stressor impaired decision-making from a psychological angle rather than from a physiological angle: it induces defensive bias of self-esteem, self-protection associated with a bias of confirmation. This leads to the hypothesis that this stressor can intervene in some cases without being detected, and to the hypothesis that other stressors of the same kind might occur without being detected too. Further investigations addressing these hypotheses are considered. The analysis also led to the conclusion that dealing with these issues implied i) decision-making methods being well known to the workers and automated and ii) the decision-making tools being well known and strictly applied. Training was thus adjusted.

Keywords: Bias, expert, high risk industry, stress.

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Authors: Daisy Biswas, Samar Kanti Bose, M. Mozaffar Hossain

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The development of value added composite products from bamboo with the application of gluing technology can play a vital role in economic development and also in forest resource conservation of any country. In this study, the gluability of Bambusa balcooa and Bambusa vulgaris, two locally grown bamboo species of Bangladesh was assessed. As the culm wall thickness of bamboos decreases from bottom to top, a culm portion of up to 5.4 m and 3.6 m were used from the base of B. balcooa and B. vulgaris, respectively, to get rectangular strips of uniform thickness. The color of the B. vulgaris strips was yellowish brown and that of B. balcooa was reddish brown. The strips were treated in borax-boric, bleaching and carbonization for extending the service life of the laminates. The preservative treatments changed the color of the strips. Borax–boric acid treated strips were reddish brown. When bleached with hydrogen peroxide, the color of the strips turned into whitish yellow. Carbonization produced dark brownish strips having coffee flavor. Chemical constituents for untreated and treated strips were determined. B. vulgaris was more acidic than B. balcooa. Then the treated strips were used to develop three-layered bamboo laminated panel. Urea formaldehyde (UF) and polyvinyl acetate (PVA) were used as binder. The shear strength and abrasive resistance of the panel were evaluated. It was found that the shear strength of the UF-panel was higher than the PVA-panel for all treatments. Between the species, gluability of B. vulgaris was better and in some cases better than hardwood species. The abrasive resistance of B. balcooa is slightly higher than B. vulgaris; however, the latter was preferred as it showed well gluability. The panels could be used as structural panel, floor tiles, flat pack furniture component, and wall panel etc. However, further research on durability and creep behavior of the product in service condition is warranted.

Keywords: Bambusa balcooa, Bambusa vulgaris, polyvinyl acetate, urea formaldehyde.

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Authors: Aurelija Burinskienė, Dalė Dzemydienė, Arūnas Miliauskas

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This research aims at developing the approach for more effective freight delivery and transportation process management. The road congestions and the identification of causes are important, as well as the context information recognition and management. The measure of many parameters during the transportation period and proper control of driver work became the problem. The number of vehicles per time unit passing at a given time and point for drivers can be evaluated in some situations. The collection of data is mainly used to establish new trips. The flow of the data is more complex in urban areas. Herein, the movement of freight is reported in detail, including the information on street level. When traffic density is extremely high in congestion cases, and the traffic speed is incredibly low, data transmission reaches the peak. Different data sets are generated, which depend on the type of freight delivery network. There are three types of networks: long-distance delivery networks, last-mile delivery networks and mode-based delivery networks; the last one includes different modes, in particular, railways and other networks. When freight delivery is switched from one type of the above-stated network to another, more data could be included for reporting purposes and vice versa. In this case, a significant amount of these data is used for control operations, and the problem requires an integrated methodological approach. The paper presents an approach for providing e-services for drivers by including the assessment of the multi-component infrastructure needed for delivery of freights following the network type. The construction of such a methodology is required to evaluate data flow conditions and overloads, and to minimize the time gaps in data reporting. The results obtained show the possibilities of the proposing methodological approach to support the management and decision-making processes with functionality of incorporating networking specifics, by helping to minimize the overloads in data reporting.

Keywords: Transportation networks, freight delivery, data flow, monitoring, e-services.

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Authors: Talal Alsulaiman, Khaldoun Khashanah

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In this paper, we provided a literature survey on the artificial stock problem (ASM). The paper began by exploring the complexity of the stock market and the needs for ASM. ASM aims to investigate the link between individual behaviors (micro level) and financial market dynamics (macro level). The variety of patterns at the macro level is a function of the AFM complexity. The financial market system is a complex system where the relationship between the micro and macro level cannot be captured analytically. Computational approaches, such as simulation, are expected to comprehend this connection. Agent-based simulation is a simulation technique commonly used to build AFMs. The paper proceeds by discussing the components of the ASM. We consider the roles of behavioral finance (BF) alongside the traditionally risk-averse assumption in the construction of agent’s attributes. Also, the influence of social networks in the developing of agents interactions is addressed. Network topologies such as a small world, distance-based, and scale-free networks may be utilized to outline economic collaborations. In addition, the primary methods for developing agents learning and adaptive abilities have been summarized. These incorporated approach such as Genetic Algorithm, Genetic Programming, Artificial neural network and Reinforcement Learning. In addition, the most common statistical properties (the stylized facts) of stock that are used for calibration and validation of ASM are discussed. Besides, we have reviewed the major related previous studies and categorize the utilized approaches as a part of these studies. Finally, research directions and potential research questions are argued. The research directions of ASM may focus on the macro level by analyzing the market dynamic or on the micro level by investigating the wealth distributions of the agents.

Keywords: Artificial stock markets, agent based simulation, bounded rationality, behavioral finance, artificial neural network, interaction, scale-free networks.

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Authors: Randa M. Ali, Naguiba F. Loutfy, Osama M. Awad

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Leishmaniasis is the collective name for a number of diseases caused by protozoan flagellates of the genus Leishmania, which is transmitted by Phlebotomine sandfly, the disease has diverse clinical manifestations and found in many areas of the world, particularly in Africa, Latin America, South and Central Asia, the Mediterranean basin and the Middle East. This study was done to assess primary health care physicians’ knowledge (PHP) and attitude about leishmaniasis and to assess awareness of local inhabitants about the disease and its vector in four areas in west Alexandria, Egypt. It is a cross sectional survey that was conducted in four PHC units in west Alexandria. All physicians currently working in these units during the study period were invited to participate in the study; only 20 PHP completed the questionnaire. 60 local inhabitants were selected randomly from the four areas of the study, 15 from each area; Data was collected through two different specially designed questionnaires. Results showed that 11 (55%) percent of the physicians had satisfactory knowledge; they answered more than 9 (60%) questions out of a total 14 questions about leishmaniasis and sandfly. On the other hand when attitude of the primary health care physicians about leishmaniasis was measured, results showed that 17 (85%) had good attitude and 3 (15%) had poor attitude. The second questionnaire showed that the awareness of local inhabitants about leishmaniasis and sandfly as a vector of the disease is poor and needs to be corrected. (90%) of the interviewed inhabitants had not heard about leishmaniasis, Only 3 (5%) of them said they know sandfly and its role in transmission of leishmaniasis. Thus we conclude that knowledge and attitudes of physicians are acceptable. However, there is, room for improvement and could be done through formal training courses and distribution of guidelines. In addition to raising the awareness of primary health care physicians about the importance of early detection and notification of cases of leishmaniasis, health education for raising awareness of the public regarding the vector and the disease is necessary because related studies have demonstrated that for inhabitants to take enough protective measures against the vector, they should perceive that it is responsible for causing a disease.

Keywords: Attitude, knowledge, PHP, leishmaniasis, sandfly, local inhabitants, inside and outside housing conditions.

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Authors: N. Ikasari, T. Sumransat, U. Eko, R. Kusumastuti

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Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are regarded as the engine for economic development, notwithstanding their continuous financing conundrum. In the case of developing countries, access to finance is a reflection of the effectiveness of government policy. The widely accepted perspective to assess small businesses’ access to finance is that of economic view. The existing body of literature presents access to finance in three dimensions; they are accessibility, eligibility and affordability. Within this perspective, the role of socio-cultural has not explored. This study is aimed at investigating the existence of any socio-cultural factors within access to finance issue in Asian countries where governance is enriched by countries’ values and beliefs. The significance of this study is the instigation of supplementary dimension to assess access to finance that eventually contributes to the development of micro-finance policy. Indonesia and Thailand are selected as cases in point, where distinction is drawn on the level of cultural diversity and micro-finance policy in respective country. A questionnaire is used to collect information related to the three dimensions of access to finance as well as to explore alternative financing reasoning to elaborate the issue from the demand side. Questionnaires are distributed to 60 small business owners operating in Indonesia and the same number in Thailand. In order to present a complete understanding on the matter at hand, interviews with banks are conducted to capture the perspective as presented by the supply side. Research findings show that small business owners and banks in Indonesia and Thailand are in agreement that access to finance is not deemed as an issue. However, trust issue that exists mutually between financing users and providers leads small business owners in Indonesia to look for alternative financing other than banks. The findings contribute to the refinement of micro-financing policy in Indonesia and Thailand.

Keywords: Access to finance, Indonesia, small and medium enterprises, Thailand.

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Authors: J. X. Dong, C. J. An, Z. Chen, E. H. Owens, M. C. Boufadel, E. Taylor, K. Lee

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Shorelines are vulnerable to significant environmental impacts from oil spills. Stranded oil can cause potential short- to long-term detrimental effects along beaches that include injuries to ecosystem, socio-economic and cultural resources. In this study, a three-dimensional (3D) numerical modeling approach is developed to evaluate the fate and transport of spilled oil for hypothetical oiled shoreline cases under various combinations of beach geomorphology and environmental conditions. The developed model estimates the spatial and temporal distribution of spilled oil for the various test conditions, using the finite volume method and considering the physical transport (dispersion and advection), sinks, and sorption processes. The model includes a user-friendly interface for data input on variables such as beach properties, environmental conditions, and physical-chemical properties of spilled oil. An experimental meso-scale tank design was used to test the developed model for dissolved petroleum hydrocarbon within shorelines. The simulated results for effects of different sediment substrates, oil types, and shoreline features for the transport of spilled oil are comparable to that obtained with a commercially available model. Results show that the properties of substrates and the oil removal by shoreline effects have significant impacts on oil transport in the beach area. Sensitivity analysis, through the application of the one-step-at-a-time method (OAT), for the 3D model identified hydraulic conductivity as the most sensitive parameter. The 3D numerical model allows users to examine the behavior of oil on and within beaches, assess potential environmental impacts, and provide technical support for decisions related to shoreline clean-up operations.

Keywords: dissolved petroleum hydrocarbons, environmental multimedia model, finite volume method, FVM, sensitivity analysis, total petroleum hydrocarbons, TPH

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Authors: Saleh Dabil

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This study investigates the level of existence of organized retail crime in supermarkets of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The store managers, security managers and general employees were asked about the types of retail crimes occur in the stores. Three independent variables were related to the report of organized retail theft. The independent variables are: 1) the supermarket profile (volume, location, standard and type of the store), 2) the social physical environment of the store (maintenance, cleanness and overall organizational cooperation), 3) the security techniques and loss prevention electronics techniques used. The theoretical framework of this study based on the social disorganization theory. This study concluded that the organized retail theft, in specific, organized theft is moderately apparent in Riyadh stores. The general result showed that the environment of the stores has an effect on the prevalence of organized retail theft with relation to the gender of thieves, age groups, working shift, type of stolen items as well as the number of thieves in one case. Among other reasons, some factors of the organized theft are: economic pressure of customers based on the location of the store. The dealing of theft also was investigated to have a clear picture of stores dealing with organized retail theft. The result showed that mostly, thieves sent without any action and sometimes given written warning. Very few cases dealt with by police. There are other factors in the study can be looked up in the text. This study suggests solving the problem of organized theft; first, is "the well distributing of the duties and responsibilities between the employees especially for security purposes". Second "Installation of strong security system" and "Making well-designed store layout". Third is "giving training for general employees" and "to give periodically security skills training of employees". There are other suggestions in the study can be looked up in the text.

Keywords: Organized Crime, Retail, Theft, Loss prevention, Store environment.

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Authors: A. Kourou, A. Ioakeimidou, E. Bafa, C. Fassoulas, M. Panoutsopoulou

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The role of volunteers in disaster management is of decisive importance and the need of their involvement is well recognized, both for prevention measures and for disaster management. During major catastrophes, whereas professional personnel are outsourced, the role of volunteers is crucial. In Greece experience has shown that various groups operating in the civil protection mechanism like local administration staff or volunteers, in many cases do not have the necessary knowledge and information on best practices to act against natural disasters. One of the major problems is the lack of volunteers’ education and training. In the above given framework, this paper presents the results of a survey aimed to identify the level of education and preparedness of civil protection volunteers in Greece. Furthermore, the implementation of earthquake protection measures at individual, family and working level, are explored. More specifically, the survey questionnaire investigates issues regarding pre-earthquake protection actions, appropriate attitudes and behaviors during an earthquake and existence of contingency plans in the workplace. The questionnaires were administered to citizens from different regions of the country and who attend the civil protection training program: “Protect Myself and Others”. A closed-form questionnaire was developed for the survey, which contained questions regarding the following: a) knowledge of self-protective actions; b) existence of emergency planning at home; c) existence of emergency planning at workplace (hazard mitigation actions, evacuation plan, and performance of drills); and, d) respondents` perception about their level of earthquake preparedness. The results revealed a serious lack of knowledge and preparedness among respondents. Taking into consideration the aforementioned gap and in order to raise awareness and improve preparedness and effective response of volunteers acting in civil protection, the EVANDE project was submitted and approved by the European Commission (EC). The aim of that project is to educate and train civil protection volunteers on the most serious natural disasters, such as forest fires, floods, and earthquakes, and thus, increase their performance.

Keywords: Civil protection, earthquake preparedness, volunteers.

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Authors: Davide D’Aria, Paolo Falcone, Luigi Maggi, Aldo Cero, Giovanni Amoroso

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The paper presents a methodology for real-time structural health monitoring and geophysical applications. The key elements of the system are a high performance MIMO RADAR sensor, an optical camera and a dedicated set of software algorithms encompassing interferometry, tomography and photogrammetry. The MIMO Radar sensor proposed in this work, provides an extremely high sensitivity to displacements making the system able to react to tiny deformations (up to tens of microns) with a time scale which spans from milliseconds to hours. The MIMO feature of the system makes the system capable of providing a set of two-dimensional images of the observed scene, each mapped on the azimuth-range directions with noticeably resolution in both the dimensions and with an outstanding repetition rate. The back-scattered energy, which is distributed in the 3D space, is projected on a 2D plane, where each pixel has as coordinates the Line-Of-Sight distance and the cross-range azimuthal angle. At the same time, the high performing processing unit allows to sense the observed scene with remarkable refresh periods (up to milliseconds), thus opening the way for combined static and dynamic structural health monitoring. Thanks to the smart TX/RX antenna array layout, the MIMO data can be processed through a tomographic approach to reconstruct the three-dimensional map of the observed scene. This 3D point cloud is then accurately mapped on a 2D digital optical image through photogrammetric techniques, allowing for easy and straightforward interpretations of the measurements. Once the three-dimensional image is reconstructed, a 'repeat-pass' interferometric approach is exploited to provide the user of the system with high frequency three-dimensional motion/vibration estimation of each point of the reconstructed image. At this stage, the methodology leverages consolidated atmospheric correction algorithms to provide reliable displacement and vibration measurements.

Keywords: Interferometry, MIMO RADAR, SAR, tomography.

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Authors: Saule Mussabekova

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Recent advances in genetics have allowed increasing acutely the capacities of the formation of reliable evidence in conducting forensic examinations. Thus, traces of biological origin are important sources of information about a crime. Currently, around the world, sexual offenses have increased, and among them are those in which the criminals use various detergents to remove traces of their crime. A feature of modern synthetic detergents is the presence of biological additives - enzymes. Enzymes purposefully destroy stains of biological origin. To study the nature and extent of the impact of modern washing powders on saliva stains on the physical evidence, specially prepared test specimens of different types of tissues to which saliva was applied have been examined. Materials and Methods: Washing machines of famous manufacturers of household appliances have been used with different production characteristics and advertised brands of washing powder for test washing. Over 3,500 experimental samples were tested. After washing, the traces of saliva were identified using modern research methods of forensic medicine. Results: The influence was tested and the dependence of the use of different washing programs, types of washing machines and washing powders in the process of establishing saliva trace and identify of the stains on the physical evidence while washing was revealed. The results of experimental and practical expert studies have shown that in most cases it is not possible to draw the conclusions in the identification of saliva traces on physical evidence after washing. This is a consequence of the effect of biological additives and other additional factors on traces of saliva during washing. Conclusions: On the basis of the results of the study, the feasibility of saliva traces of the stains on physical evidence after washing is established. The use of modern molecular genetic methods makes it possible to partially solve the problems arising in the study of unlaundered evidence. Additional study of physical evidence after washing facilitates detection and investigation of sexual offenses against women and children.

Keywords: Saliva research, modern synthetic detergents, laundry detergents, forensic medicine.

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Authors: Ghassan Kbar, Shady Aly, Ibraheem Elsharawy, Akshay Bhatia, Nur Alhasan, Ronaldo Enriquez

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The Smart Help for persons with disability (PWD) is a part of the project SMARTDISABLE which aims to develop relevant solution for PWD that target to provide an adequate workplace environment for them. It would support PWD needs smartly through smart help to allow them access to relevant information and communicate with other effectively and flexibly, and smart editor that assist them in their daily work. It will assist PWD in knowledge processing and creation as well as being able to be productive at the work place. The technical work of the project involves design of a technological scenario for the Ambient Intelligence (AmI) - based assistive technologies at the workplace consisting of an integrated universal smart solution that suits many different impairment conditions and will be designed to empower the Physically disabled persons (PDP) with the capability to access and effectively utilize the ICTs in order to execute knowledge rich working tasks with minimum efforts and with sufficient comfort level. The proposed technology solution for PWD will support voice recognition along with normal keyboard and mouse to control the smart help and smart editor with dynamic auto display interface that satisfies the requirements for different PWD group. In addition, a smart help will provide intelligent intervention based on the behavior of PWD to guide them and warn them about possible misbehavior. PWD can communicate with others using Voice over IP controlled by voice recognition. Moreover, Auto Emergency Help Response would be supported to assist PWD in case of emergency. This proposed technology solution intended to make PWD very effective at the work environment and flexible using voice to conduct their tasks at the work environment. The proposed solution aims to provide favorable outcomes that assist PWD at the work place, with the opportunity to participate in PWD assistive technology innovation market which is still small and rapidly growing as well as upgrading their quality of life to become similar to the normal people at the workplace. Finally, the proposed smart help solution is applicable in all workplace setting, including offices, manufacturing, hospital, etc.

Keywords: Ambient Intelligence, ICT, Persons with disability PWD, Smart application.

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Authors: Gianpaolo Ghiani, Emanuela Guerriero, Emanuele Manni, Alessandro Romano

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In this article, we deal with a variant of the classical course timetabling problem that has a practical application in many areas of education. In particular, in this paper we are interested in high schools remedial courses. The purpose of such courses is to provide under-prepared students with the skills necessary to succeed in their studies. In particular, a student might be under prepared in an entire course, or only in a part of it. The limited availability of funds, as well as the limited amount of time and teachers at disposal, often requires schools to choose which courses and/or which teaching units to activate. Thus, schools need to model the training offer and the related timetabling, with the goal of ensuring the highest possible teaching quality, by meeting the above-mentioned financial, time and resources constraints. Moreover, there are some prerequisites between the teaching units that must be satisfied. We first present a Mixed-Integer Programming (MIP) model to solve this problem to optimality. However, the presence of many peculiar constraints contributes inevitably in increasing the complexity of the mathematical model. Thus, solving it through a general-purpose solver may be performed for small instances only, while solving real-life-sized instances of such model requires specific techniques or heuristic approaches. For this purpose, we also propose a heuristic approach, in which we make use of a fast constructive procedure to obtain a feasible solution. To assess our exact and heuristic approaches we perform extensive computational results on both real-life instances (obtained from a high school in Lecce, Italy) and randomly generated instances. Our tests show that the MIP model is never solved to optimality, with an average optimality gap of 57%. On the other hand, the heuristic algorithm is much faster (in about the 50% of the considered instances it converges in approximately half of the time limit) and in many cases allows achieving an improvement on the objective function value obtained by the MIP model. Such an improvement ranges between 18% and 66%.

Keywords: Heuristic, MIP model, Remedial course, School, Timetabling.

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Authors: R. Estrada, A. Henriquez, R. Becerra, C. Laguna

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Spatial Augmented Reality is a variation of Augmented Reality where the Head-Mounted Display is not required. This variation of Augmented Reality is useful in cases where the need for a Head-Mounted Display itself is a limitation. To achieve this, Spatial Augmented Reality techniques substitute the technological elements of Augmented Reality; the virtual world is projected onto a physical surface. To create an interactive spatial augmented experience, the application must be aware of the spatial relations that exist between its core elements. In this case, the core elements are referred to as a projection system and an input system, and the process to achieve this spatial awareness is called system calibration. The Spatial Augmented Reality system is considered calibrated if the projected virtual world scale is similar to the real-world scale, meaning that a virtual object will maintain its perceived dimensions when projected to the real world. Also, the input system is calibrated if the application knows the relative position of a point in the projection plane and the RGB-depth sensor origin point. Any kind of projection technology can be used, light-based projectors, close-range projectors, and screens, as long as it complies with the defined constraints; the method was tested on different configurations. The proposed procedure does not rely on a physical marker, minimizing the human intervention on the process. The tests are made using a Kinect V2 as an input sensor and several projection devices. In order to test the method, the constraints defined were applied to a variety of physical configurations; once the method was executed, some variables were obtained to measure the method performance. It was demonstrated that the method obtained can solve different arrangements, giving the user a wide range of setup possibilities.

Keywords: Color depth sensor, human computer interface, interactive surface, spatial augmented reality.

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Authors: M. Naimi, M. B. Khaled

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The aim of the present work was to test in vitro inhibition of food pathogens and spoilage bacteria by crude bacteriocins from autochthonous lactic acid bacteria. Thirty autochthonous lactic acid bacteria isolated previously, belonging to the genera: Lactobacillus, Carnobacterium, Lactococcus, Vagococcus, Streptococcus, and Pediococcus, have been screened by an agar spot test and a well diffusion assay against Gram-positive and Gram-negative harmful bacteria: Bacillus cereus, Bacillus subtilis ATCC 6633, Escherichia coli ATCC 8739, Salmonella typhimurium ATCC 14028, Staphylococcus aureus ATCC 6538, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa under conditions means to reduce lactic acid and hydrogen peroxide effect to select bacteria with high bacteriocinogenic potential. Furthermore, crude bacteriocins semiquantification and heat sensitivity to different temperatures (80, 95, 110°C, and 121°C) were performed. Another exploratory test concerning the response of St. aureus ATCC 6538 to the presence of crude bacteriocins was realized. It has been observed by the agar spot test that fifteen candidates were active toward Gram-positive targets strains. The secondary screening demonstrated an antagonistic activity oriented only against St. aureus ATCC 6538, leading to the selection of five isolates: L_m14, L_m21, L_m23, L_m24, and L_m25 with a larger inhibition zone compared to the others. The ANOVA statistical analysis reveals a small variation of repeatability: L_m21: 0.56%, L_m23: 0%, L_m25: 1.67%, L_m14: 1.88%, L_m24: 2.14%. Conversely, slight variation was reported in terms of inhibition diameters: 9.58± 0.40, 9.83± 0.46 and 10.16± 0.24 8.5 ± 0.40 10 mm for, L_m21, L_m23, L_m25, L_m14and L_m24, indicating that the observed potential showed a heterogeneous distribution (BMS = 0.383, WMS = 0.117). The repeatability coefficient calculated displayed 7.35%. As for the bacteriocins semiquantification, the five samples exhibited production amounts about 4.16 for L_m21, L_m23, L_m25 and 2.08 AU/ml for L_m14, L_m24. Concerning the sensitivity the crude bacteriocins were fully insensitive to heat inactivation, until 121°C, they preserved the same inhibition diameter. As to, kinetic of growth , the µmax showed reductions in pathogens load for L_m21, L_m23, L_m25, L_m14, L_m24 of about 42.92%, 84.12%, 88.55%, 54.95%, 29.97% in the second trails. Inversely, this pathogen growth after five hours displayed differences of 79.45%, 12.64%, 11.82%, 87.88%, 85.66% in the second trails, compared to the control. This study showed potential inhibition to the growth of this food pathogen, suggesting the possibility to improve the hygienic food quality.

Keywords: Exploratory test, lactic acid bacteria, crude bacteriocins, spoilage, pathogens.

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Authors: Sungin Jeong

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This paper presents a linear oscillating generator of cylindrical type for hybrid electric vehicle application. The focus of the study is the suggestion of the optimal model and the design rule of the cylindrical linear oscillating generator with permanent magnet in the back-iron translator. The cylindrical topology is achieved using equivalent magnetic circuit considering leakage elements as initial modeling. This topology with permanent magnet in the back-iron translator is described by number of phases and displacement of stroke. For more accurate analysis of an oscillating machine, it will be compared by moving just one-pole pitch forward and backward the thrust of single-phase system and three-phase system. Through the analysis and comparison, a single-phase system of cylindrical topology as the optimal topology is selected. Finally, the detailed design of the optimal topology takes the magnetic saturation effects into account by finite element analysis. Besides, the losses are examined to obtain more accurate results; copper loss in the conductors of machine windings, eddy-current loss of permanent magnet, and iron-loss of specific material of electrical steel. The considerations of thermal performances and mechanical robustness are essential, because they have an effect on the entire efficiency and the insulations of the machine due to the losses of the high temperature generated in each region of the generator. Besides electric machine with linear oscillating movement requires a support system that can resist dynamic forces and mechanical masses. As a result, the fatigue analysis of shaft is achieved by the kinetic equations. Also, the thermal characteristics are analyzed by the operating frequency in each region. The results of this study will give a very important design rule in the design of linear oscillating machines. It enables us to more accurate machine design and more accurate prediction of machine performances.

Keywords: Equivalent magnetic circuit, finite element analysis, hybrid electric vehicle, free piston engine, cylindrical linear oscillating generator

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Authors: Abdullah Faqihi, John Hedley

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Biosensors play a significant role in the healthcare sectors, scientific and technological progress. Developing electrodes that are easy to manufacture and deliver better electrochemical performance is advantageous for diagnostics and biosensing. They can be implemented extensively in various analytical tasks such as drug discovery, food safety, medical diagnostics, process controls, security and defence, in addition to environmental monitoring. Development of biosensors aims to create high-performance electrochemical electrodes for diagnostics and biosensing. A biosensor is a device that inspects the biological and chemical reactions generated by the biological sample. A biosensor carries out biological detection via a linked transducer and transmits the biological response into an electrical signal; stability, selectivity, and sensitivity are the dynamic and static characteristics that affect and dictate the quality and performance of biosensors. In this research, a developed experimental study for laser scribing technique for graphene oxide inside a vacuum chamber for processing of graphene oxide is presented. The processing of graphene oxide (GO) was achieved using the laser scribing technique. The effect of the laser scribing on the reduction of GO was investigated under two conditions: atmosphere and vacuum. GO solvent was coated onto a LightScribe DVD. The laser scribing technique was applied to reduce GO layers to generate rGO. The micro-details for the morphological structures of rGO and GO were visualised using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Raman spectroscopy so that they could be examined. The first electrode was a traditional graphene-based electrode model, made under normal atmospheric conditions, whereas the second model was a developed graphene electrode fabricated under a vacuum state using a vacuum chamber. The purpose was to control the vacuum conditions, such as the air pressure and the temperature during the fabrication process. The parameters to be assessed include the layer thickness and the continuous environment. Results presented show high accuracy and repeatability achieving low cost productivity.

Keywords: Laser scribing, LightScribe DVD, graphene oxide, scanning electron microscopy.

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Authors: Mustafa Al Sukar, Azzam Sleit, Abdullatif Abu-Dalhoum, Bassam Al-Kasasbeh

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Use and abuse of drugs by teens is very common and can have dangerous consequences. The drugs contribute to physical and sexual aggression such as assault or rape. Some teenagers regularly use drugs to compensate for depression, anxiety or a lack of positive social skills. Teen resort to smoking should not be minimized because it can be "gateway drugs" for other drugs (marijuana, cocaine, hallucinogens, inhalants, and heroin). The combination of teenagers' curiosity, risk taking behavior, and social pressure make it very difficult to say no. This leads most teenagers to the questions: "Will it hurt to try once?" Nowadays, technological advances are changing our lives very rapidly and adding a lot of technologies that help us to track the risk of drug abuse such as smart phones, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs), Internet of Things (IoT), etc. This technique may help us to early discovery of drug abuse in order to prevent an aggravation of the influence of drugs on the abuser. In this paper, we have developed a Decision Support System (DSS) for detecting the drug abuse using Artificial Neural Network (ANN); we used a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) feed-forward neural network in developing the system. The input layer includes 50 variables while the output layer contains one neuron which indicates whether the person is a drug addict. An iterative process is used to determine the number of hidden layers and the number of neurons in each one. We used multiple experiment models that have been completed with Log-Sigmoid transfer function. Particularly, 10-fold cross validation schemes are used to access the generalization of the proposed system. The experiment results have obtained 98.42% classification accuracy for correct diagnosis in our system. The data had been taken from 184 cases in Jordan according to a set of questions compiled from Specialists, and data have been obtained through the families of drug abusers.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Decision Support System, drug abuse, drug addiction, Multilayer Perceptron.

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Authors: Koko Iwan Agus Kurniawan, Dwi Purnomo, Anas Bunyamin, Arif Rahman Jaya

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Fruters model is a concept of technopreneurship-based on empowerment, in which technology research results were designed to create high value-added products and implemented as a locomotive of collaborative empowerment; thereby, the impact was widely spread. This model still needs to be inventoried and validated concerning the influenced variables in the business growth process. Model validation accompanied by mapping was required to be applicable to Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs) agro-industry based on sustainable social business and existing real cases. This research explained the empowerment model of Yourgood, an SME, which emphasized on empowering the farmers/ breeders in farmers in rural areas, Cipageran, Cimahi, to housewives in urban areas, Bandung, West Java, Indonesia. This research reviewed some works of literature discussing the agro-industrial development associated with the empowerment and social business process and gained a unique business model picture with the social business platform as well. Through the mapped business model, there were several advantages such as technology acquisition, independence, capital generation, good investment growth, strengthening of collaboration, and improvement of social impacts that can be replicated on other businesses. This research used analytical-descriptive research method consisting of qualitative analysis with design thinking approach and that of quantitative with the AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process). Based on the results, the development of the enterprise’s process was highly affected by supplying farmers with the score of 0.248 out of 1, being the most valuable for the existence of the enterprise. It was followed by university (0.178), supplying farmers (0.153), business actors (0.128), government (0.100), distributor (0.092), techno-preneurship laboratory (0.069), banking (0.033), and Non-Government Organization (NGO) (0.031).

Keywords: Agro-Industry, small medium enterprises (SMEs), empowerment, design thinking, AHP, business model canvas, social business.

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Authors: Shende Suraj Balu, A. B. Deoghare, K. M. Pandey

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The human middle ear (ME) is a delicate and vital organ. It has a complex structure that performs various functions such as receiving sound pressure and producing vibrations of eardrum and propagating it to inner ear. It consists of Tympanic Membrane (TM), three auditory ossicles, various ligament structures and muscles. Incidents such as traumata, infections, ossification of ossicular structures and other pathologies may damage the ME organs. The conditions can be surgically treated by employing prosthesis. However, the suitability of the prosthesis needs to be examined in advance prior to the surgery. Few decades ago, this issue was addressed and analyzed by developing an equivalent representation either in the form of spring mass system, electrical system using R-L-C circuit or developing an approximated CAD model. But, nowadays a three-dimensional ME model can be constructed using micro X-Ray Computed Tomography (μCT) scan data. Moreover, the concern about patient specific integrity pertaining to the disease can be examined well in advance. The current research work emphasizes to develop the ME model from the stacks of μCT images which are used as input file to MIMICS Research 19.0 (Materialise Interactive Medical Image Control System) software. A stack of CT images is converted into geometrical surface model to build accurate morphology of ME. The work is further extended to understand the dynamic behaviour of Harmonic response of the stapes footplate and umbo for different sound pressure levels applied at lateral side of eardrum using finite element approach. The pathological condition Cholesteatoma of ME is investigated to obtain peak to peak displacement of stapes footplate and umbo. Apart from this condition, other pathologies, mainly, changes in the stiffness of stapedial ligament, TM thickness and ossicular chain separation and fixation are also explored. The developed model of ME for pathologies is validated by comparing the results available in the literatures and also with the results of a normal ME to calculate the percentage loss in hearing capability.

Keywords: Computed tomography, human middle ear, harmonic response, pathologies, tympanic membrane.

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Authors: George N. Prodromidis, Frank A. Coutelieris

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Biogas can be currently considered as an alternative option for electricity production, mainly due to its high energy content (hydrocarbon-rich source), its renewable status and its relatively low utilization cost. Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) stacks convert fuel’s chemical energy to electricity with high efficiencies and reveal significant advantages on fuel flexibility combined with lower emissions rate, especially when utilize biogas. Electricity production by biogas constitutes a composite problem which incorporates an extensive parametric analysis on numerous dynamic variables. The main scope of the presented study is to propose a detailed thermodynamic model on the optimization of SOFC-based power plants’ operation based on fundamental thermodynamics, energy and exergy balances. This model named THERMAS (THERmodynamic MAthematical Simulation model) incorporates each individual process, during electricity production, mathematically simulated for different case studies that represent real life operational conditions. Also, THERMAS offers the opportunity to choose a great variety of different values for each operational parameter individually, thus allowing for studies within unexplored and experimentally impossible operational ranges. Finally, THERMAS innovatively incorporates a specific criterion concluded by the extensive energy analysis to identify the most optimal scenario per simulated system in exergy terms. Therefore, several dynamical parameters as well as several biogas mixture compositions have been taken into account, to cover all the possible incidents. Towards the optimization process in terms of an innovative OPF (OPtimization Factor), presented here, this research study reveals that systems supplied by low methane fuels can be comparable to these supplied by pure methane. To conclude, such an innovative simulation model indicates a perspective on the optimal design of a SOFC stack based system, in the direction of the commercialization of systems utilizing biogas.

Keywords: Biogas, Exergy, Optimization, SOFC.

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Authors: Maria E. Manioudaki, Panayiota Poirazi

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Yeast cells live in a constantly changing environment that requires the continuous adaptation of their genomic program in order to sustain their homeostasis, survive and proliferate. Due to the advancement of high throughput technologies, there is currently a large amount of data such as gene expression, gene deletion and protein-protein interactions for S. Cerevisiae under various environmental conditions. Mining these datasets requires efficient computational methods capable of integrating different types of data, identifying inter-relations between different components and inferring functional groups or 'modules' that shape intracellular processes. This study uses computational methods to delineate some of the mechanisms used by yeast cells to respond to environmental changes. The GRAM algorithm is first used to integrate gene expression data and ChIP-chip data in order to find modules of coexpressed and co-regulated genes as well as the transcription factors (TFs) that regulate these modules. Since transcription factors are themselves transcriptionally regulated, a three-layer regulatory cascade consisting of the TF-regulators, the TFs and the regulated modules is subsequently considered. This three-layer cascade is then modeled quantitatively using artificial neural networks (ANNs) where the input layer corresponds to the expression of the up-stream transcription factors (TF-regulators) and the output layer corresponds to the expression of genes within each module. This work shows that (a) the expression of at least 33 genes over time and for different stress conditions is well predicted by the expression of the top layer transcription factors, including cases in which the effect of up-stream regulators is shifted in time and (b) identifies at least 6 novel regulatory interactions that were not previously associated with stress-induced changes in gene expression. These findings suggest that the combination of gene expression and protein-DNA interaction data with artificial neural networks can successfully model biological pathways and capture quantitative dependencies between distant regulators and downstream genes.

Keywords: gene modules, artificial neural networks, yeast, stress

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Authors: U.V Jose, Muhammed Nahar, Vijayakumar S., Sonia Jose

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Environment both endowed and built are essential for tourism. However tourism and environment maintains a complex relationship, where in most cases environment is at the receiving end. Many tourism development activities have adverse environmental effects, mainly emanating from construction of general infrastructure and tourism facilities. These negative impacts of tourism can lead to the destruction of precious natural resources on which it depends. These effects vary between locations; and its effect on a hill destination is highly critical. This study aims at developing a Sustainable Tourism Planning Model for an environmentally sensitive tourism destination in Kerala, India. Being part of the Nilgiri mountain ranges, Munnar falls in the Western Ghats, one of the biological hotspots in the world. Endowed with a unique high altitude environment Munnar inherits highly significant ecological wealth. Giving prime importance to the protection of this ecological heritage, the study proposes a tourism planning model with resource conservation and sustainability as the paramount focus. Conceiving a novel approach towards sustainable tourism planning, the study proposes to assess tourism attractions using Ecological Sensitivity Index (ESI) and Tourism Attractiveness Index (TAI). Integration of these two indices will form the Ecology – Tourism Matrix (ETM), outlining the base for tourism planning in an environmentally sensitive destination. The ETM Matrix leads to a classification of tourism nodes according to its Conservation Significance and Tourism Significance. The spatial integration of such nodes based on the Hub & Spoke Principle constitutes sub – regions within the STZ. Ensuing analyses lead to specific guidelines for the STZ as a whole, specific tourism nodes, hubs and sub-regions. The study results in a multi – dimensional output, viz., (1) Classification system for tourism nodes in an environmentally sensitive region/ destination (2) Conservation / Tourism Development Strategies and Guidelines for the micro and macro regions and (3) A Sustainable Tourism Planning Tool particularly for Ecologically Sensitive Destinations, which can be adapted for other destinations as well.

Keywords: Tourism, Environment, Spatial Planning, Model

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Authors: Padmanabhan Balasubramanian, C. Hari Narayanan

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This paper discusses a new, systematic approach to the synthesis of a NP-hard class of non-regenerative Boolean networks, described by FON[FOFF]={mi}[{Mi}], where for every mj[Mj]∈{mi}[{Mi}], there exists another mk[Mk]∈{mi}[{Mi}], such that their Hamming distance HD(mj, mk)=HD(Mj, Mk)=O(n), (where 'n' represents the number of distinct primary inputs). The method automatically ensures exact minimization for certain important selfdual functions with 2n-1 points in its one-set. The elements meant for grouping are determined from a newly proposed weighted incidence matrix. Then the binary value corresponding to the candidate pair is correlated with the proposed binary value matrix to enable direct synthesis. We recommend algebraic factorization operations as a post processing step to enable reduction in literal count. The algorithm can be implemented in any high level language and achieves best cost optimization for the problem dealt with, irrespective of the number of inputs. For other cases, the method is iterated to subsequently reduce it to a problem of O(n-1), O(n-2),.... and then solved. In addition, it leads to optimal results for problems exhibiting higher degree of adjacency, with a different interpretation of the heuristic, and the results are comparable with other methods. In terms of literal cost, at the technology independent stage, the circuits synthesized using our algorithm enabled net savings over AOI (AND-OR-Invert) logic, AND-EXOR logic (EXOR Sum-of- Products or ESOP forms) and AND-OR-EXOR logic by 45.57%, 41.78% and 41.78% respectively for the various problems. Circuit level simulations were performed for a wide variety of case studies at 3.3V and 2.5V supply to validate the performance of the proposed method and the quality of the resulting synthesized circuits at two different voltage corners. Power estimation was carried out for a 0.35micron TSMC CMOS process technology. In comparison with AOI logic, the proposed method enabled mean savings in power by 42.46%. With respect to AND-EXOR logic, the proposed method yielded power savings to the tune of 31.88%, while in comparison with AND-OR-EXOR level networks; average power savings of 33.23% was obtained.

Keywords: AOI logic, ESOP, AND-OR-EXOR, Incidencematrix, Hamming distance.

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Authors: Aynaz Lotfata

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Planning community has been long discussing emerging paradigms within the planning theory in the face of the changing conditions of the world order. The paradigm shift concept was introduced by Thomas Kuhn, in 1960, who claimed the necessity of shifting within scientific knowledge boundaries; and following him in 1970 Imre Loktas also gave priority to the emergence of multi-paradigm societies [24]. Multi-paradigm is changing our predetermined lifeworld through uncertainties. Those uncertainties are reflected in two sides, the first one is uncertainty as a concept of possibility and creativity in public sphere and the second one is uncertainty as a risk. Therefore, it is necessary to apply a resilience planning approach to be more dynamic in controlling uncertainties which have the potential to transfigure present time and space definitions. In this way, stability of system can be achieved. Uncertainty is not only an outcome of worldwide changes but also a place-specific issue, i.e. it changes from continent to continent, a country to country; a region to region. Therefore, applying strategic spatial planning with respect to resilience principle contributes to: control, grasp and internalize uncertainties through place-specific strategies. In today-s fast changing world, planning system should follow strategic spatial projects to control multi-paradigm societies with adaptability capacities. Here, we have selected two alternatives to demonstrate; these are; 1.Tehran (Iran) from the Middle East 2.Bath (United Kingdom) from Europe. The study elaborates uncertainties and particularities in their strategic spatial planning processes in a comparative manner. Through the comparison, the study aims at assessing place-specific priorities in strategic planning. The approach is to a two-way stream, where the case cities from the extreme end of the spectrum can learn from each other. The structure of this paper is to firstly compare semi-periphery (Tehran) and coreperiphery (Bath) cities, with the focus to reveal how they equip to face with uncertainties according to their geographical locations and local particularities. Secondly, the key message to address is “Each locality requires its own strategic planning approach to be resilient.--

Keywords: Adaptation, Relational Network, Socio-Spatial Strategic Resiliency, Uncertainty.

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Authors: María Jesús Luengo-Valderrey, Mónica Moso-Díez

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In the knowledge-based economy, innovation is considered essential in order to achieve survival and growth in organizations. On the other hand, knowledge management is currently understood as one of the keys to innovation process. Both factors are generally admitted as generators of competitive advantage in organizations. Specifically, activities on R&D&I and those that generate internal knowledge have a positive influence in innovation results. This paper examines this effect and if it is similar or not is what we aimed to quantify in this paper. We focus on the impact that proportion of knowledge workers, the R&D&I investment, the amounts destined for ICTs and training for innovation have on the variation of tangible and intangibles returns for the sector of high and medium technology in Spain. To do this, we have performed an empirical analysis on the results of questionnaires about innovation in enterprises in Spain, collected by the National Statistics Institute. First, using clusters methodology, the behavior of these enterprises regarding knowledge management is identified. Then, using SEM methodology, we performed, for each cluster, the study about cause-effect relationships among constructs defined through variables, setting its type and quantification. The cluster analysis results in four groups in which cluster number 1 and 3 presents the best performance in innovation with differentiating nuances among them, while clusters 2 and 4 obtained divergent results to a similar innovative effort. However, the results of SEM analysis for each cluster show that, in all cases, knowledge workers are those that affect innovation performance most, regardless of the level of investment, and that there is a strong correlation between knowledge workers and investment in knowledge generation. The main findings reached is that Spanish high and medium technology companies improve their innovation performance investing in internal knowledge generation measures, specially, in terms of R&D activities, and underinvest in external ones. This, and the strong correlation between knowledge workers and the set of activities that promote the knowledge generation, should be taken into account by managers of companies, when making decisions about their investments for innovation, since they are key for improving their opportunities in the global market.

Keywords: High and medium technology sector, innovation, knowledge management, Spanish companies.

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Authors: Yi-Fan Lin, Peter P. Howley, Frank A. Tuyl

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Quality measurement and reporting systems are used in healthcare internationally. In Australia, the Australian Council on Healthcare Standards records and reports hundreds of clinical indicators (CIs) nationally across the healthcare system. These CIs are measures of performance in the clinical setting, and are used as a screening tool to help assess whether a standard of care is being met. Existing analysis and reporting of these CIs incorporate Bayesian methods to address sampling variation; however, such assessments are retrospective in nature, reporting upon the previous six or twelve months of data. The use of Bayesian methods within statistical process control for monitoring systems is an important pursuit to support more timely decision-making. Our research has developed and assessed a new graphical monitoring tool, similar to a control chart, based on the beta-binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution to facilitate the real-time assessment of health care organizational performance via CIs. The BBPP charts have been compared with the traditional Bernoulli CUSUM (BC) chart by simulation. The more traditional “central” and “highest posterior density” (HPD) interval approaches were each considered to define the limits, and the multiple charts were compared via in-control and out-of-control average run lengths (ARLs), assuming that the parameter representing the underlying CI rate (proportion of cases with an event of interest) required estimation. Preliminary results have identified that the BBPP chart with HPD-based control limits provides better out-of-control run length performance than the central interval-based and BC charts. Further, the BC chart’s performance may be improved by using Bayesian parameter estimation of the underlying CI rate.

Keywords: Average run length, Bernoulli CUSUM chart, beta binomial posterior predictive distribution, clinical indicator, health care organization, highest posterior density interval.

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