Search results for: support vector regression.

Authors: Wanatchapong Kongkaew

Abstract:

This paper proposes an application of probabilistic technique, namely Gaussian process regression, for estimating an optimal sequence of the single machine with total weighted tardiness (SMTWT) scheduling problem. In this work, the Gaussian process regression (GPR) model is utilized to predict an optimal sequence of the SMTWT problem, and its solution is improved by using an iterated local search based on simulated annealing scheme, called GPRISA algorithm. The results show that the proposed GPRISA method achieves a very good performance and a reasonable trade-off between solution quality and time consumption. Moreover, in the comparison of deviation from the best-known solution, the proposed mechanism noticeably outperforms the recently existing approaches.

 

Keywords: Gaussian process regression, iterated local search, simulated annealing, single machine total weighted tardiness.

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Authors: M. K. Pradhan, C. K. Biswas,

Abstract:

In the current research, neuro-fuzzy model and regression model was developed to predict Material Removal Rate in Electrical Discharge Machining process for AISI D2 tool steel with copper electrode. Extensive experiments were conducted with various levels of discharge current, pulse duration and duty cycle. The experimental data are split into two sets, one for training and the other for validation of the model. The training data were used to develop the above models and the test data, which was not used earlier to develop these models were used for validation the models. Subsequently, the models are compared. It was found that the predicted and experimental results were in good agreement and the coefficients of correlation were found to be 0.999 and 0.974 for neuro fuzzy and regression model respectively

Keywords: Electrical discharge machining, material removal rate, neuro-fuzzy model, regression model, mountain clustering.

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Authors: Gelareh Mohammadi, Parisa Shoushtari, Behnam Molaee Ardekani, Mohammad B. Shamsollahi

Abstract:

A direct connection between ElectroEncephaloGram (EEG) and the genetic information of individuals has been investigated by neurophysiologists and psychiatrists since 1960-s; and it opens a new research area in the science. This paper focuses on the person identification based on feature extracted from the EEG which can show a direct connection between EEG and the genetic information of subjects. In this work the full EO EEG signal of healthy individuals are estimated by an autoregressive (AR) model and the AR parameters are extracted as features. Here for feature vector constitution, two methods have been proposed; in the first method the extracted parameters of each channel are used as a feature vector in the classification step which employs a competitive neural network and in the second method a combination of different channel parameters are used as a feature vector. Correct classification scores at the range of 80% to 100% reveal the potential of our approach for person classification/identification and are in agreement to the previous researches showing evidence that the EEG signal carries genetic information. The novelty of this work is in the combination of AR parameters and the network type (competitive network) that we have used. A comparison between the first and the second approach imply preference of the second one.

Keywords: Person Identification, Autoregressive Model, EEG, Neural Network

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Authors: Daniel I. Morariu, Lucian N. Vintan, Volker Tresp

Abstract:

Text categorization is the problem of classifying text documents into a set of predefined classes. In this paper, we investigated three approaches to build a meta-classifier in order to increase the classification accuracy. The basic idea is to learn a metaclassifier to optimally select the best component classifier for each data point. The experimental results show that combining classifiers can significantly improve the accuracy of classification and that our meta-classification strategy gives better results than each individual classifier. For 7083 Reuters text documents we obtained a classification accuracies up to 92.04%.

Keywords: Meta-classification, Learning with Kernels, Support Vector Machine, and Performance Evaluation.

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Authors: Yasusi Kanada

Abstract:

When printing a plate (or dish) by an FDM 3D printer, the process normally requires support material, which causes several problems. This paper proposes a method for forming thin plates without using wasteful support material. This method requires several extraordinary parameter values when slicing plates. The experiments show that the plates can, for the most part, be successfully formed using a conventional slicer and a 3D printer; however, seams between layers spoil them and the quality of printed objects strongly depends on the slicer.

Keywords: Fused deposition modeling (FDM), 3D printing, Support-less, Layer seam, Slicer.

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Authors: Fereydoon Sarmadian, Ali Keshavarzi

Abstract:

Study of soil properties like field capacity (F.C.) and permanent wilting point (P.W.P.) play important roles in study of soil moisture retention curve. Although these parameters can be measured directly, their measurement is difficult and expensive. Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) provide an alternative by estimating soil parameters from more readily available soil data. In this investigation, 70 soil samples were collected from different horizons of 15 soil profiles located in the Ziaran region, Qazvin province, Iran. The data set was divided into two subsets for calibration (80%) and testing (20%) of the models and their normality were tested by Kolmogorov-Smirnov method. Both multivariate regression and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques were employed to develop the appropriate PTFs for predicting soil parameters using easily measurable characteristics of clay, silt, O.C, S.P, B.D and CaCO3. The performance of the multivariate regression and ANN models was evaluated using an independent test data set. In order to evaluate the models, root mean square error (RMSE) and R2 were used. The comparison of RSME for two mentioned models showed that the ANN model gives better estimates of F.C and P.W.P than the multivariate regression model. The value of RMSE and R2 derived by ANN model for F.C and P.W.P were (2.35, 0.77) and (2.83, 0.72), respectively. The corresponding values for multivariate regression model were (4.46, 0.68) and (5.21, 0.64), respectively. Results showed that ANN with five neurons in hidden layer had better performance in predicting soil properties than multivariate regression.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Field capacity, Permanentwilting point, Pedotransfer functions.

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Authors: Yang Zhang, Yuncai Liu

Abstract:

Accurately predicting non-peak traffic is crucial to daily traffic for all forecasting models. In the paper, least squares support vector machines (LS-SVMs) are investigated to solve such a practical problem. It is the first time to apply the approach and analyze the forecast performance in the domain. For comparison purpose, two parametric and two non-parametric techniques are selected because of their effectiveness proved in past research. Having good generalization ability and guaranteeing global minima, LS-SVMs perform better than the others. Providing sufficient improvement in stability and robustness reveals that the approach is practically promising.

Keywords: Parametric and Nonparametric Techniques, Non-peak Traffic Forecasting

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Authors: Sagaren Pillay

Abstract:

In this paper bi-annual time series data on unemployment rates (from the Labour Force Survey) are expanded to quarterly rates and linked to quarterly unemployment rates (from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey). The resultant linked series and the consumer price index (CPI) series are examined using Johansen’s cointegration approach and vector error correction modeling. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant co-integrating relationship is found to exist between the time series of unemployment rates and the CPI. Given this significant relationship, the study models this relationship using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), one with a restriction on the deterministic term and the other with no restriction.

A formal statistical confirmation of the existence of a unique linear and lagged relationship between inflation and unemployment for the period between September 2000 and June 2011 is presented. For the given period, the CPI was found to be an unbiased predictor of the unemployment rate. This relationship can be explored further for the development of appropriate forecasting models incorporating other study variables.

Keywords: Forecasting, lagged, linear, relationship.

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Authors: Monika Chuchro

Abstract:

This paper presents a preliminary attempt to apply classification of time series using meta-clusters in order to improve the quality of regression models. In this case, clustering was performed as a method to obtain subgroups of time series data with normal distribution from the inflow into wastewater treatment plant data, composed of several groups differing by mean value. Two simple algorithms, K-mean and EM, were chosen as a clustering method. The Rand index was used to measure the similarity. After simple meta-clustering, a regression model was performed for each subgroups. The final model was a sum of the subgroups models. The quality of the obtained model was compared with the regression model made using the same explanatory variables, but with no clustering of data. Results were compared using determination coefficient (R2), measure of prediction accuracy- mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and comparison on a linear chart. Preliminary results allow us to foresee the potential of the presented technique.

Keywords: Clustering, Data analysis, Data mining, Predictive models.

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Authors: Najib Ahmad Marzuki, Che Su Mustaffa, Johana Johari, Nur Hafizza Rahaman

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects and relationship of stress and social support towards the quality of life among flood victims in Malaysia. A total of 764 respondents took part in the survey via convenience sampling. The Depression, Anxiety and Stress scale (DASS) was utilized to measure stress while The Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support was used to measure social support. To measure quality of life, the combination of WHO Quality of Life – BREF (WHOQOL-BREF) and The Impact of Event Scale – Revised (IES-R) were utilized. The findings of this study indicate that there were significant correlations between variables in the study. The findings showed a significant negative relation between stress and quality of life; and significant positive correlations between support from family as well as support from friends with quality of life. Stress and support from family were found to be significant predictors that influence the quality of life among flood victims.

Keywords: Stress, social support, quality of life, flood victims.

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Authors: Melih Turgut, Süha Yılmaz

Abstract:

In this paper, first, a characterization of spherical Pseudo null curves in Semi-Euclidean space is given. Then, to investigate position vector of a pseudo null curve, a system of differential equation whose solution gives the components of the position vector of a pseudo null curve on the Frenet axis is established by means of Frenet equations. Additionally, in view of some special solutions of mentioned system, characterizations of some special pseudo null curves are presented.

Keywords: Semi-Euclidean Space, Pseudo Null Curves, Position Vectors.

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Authors: Christiono Utomo, Arazi Idrus

Abstract:

Value-based group decision is very complicated since many parties involved. There are different concern caused by differing preferences, experiences, and background. Therefore, a support system is required to enable each stakeholder to evaluate and rank the solution alternatives before engaging into negotiation with the other stakeholders. The support system is based on combination between value-based analysis, multi criteria group decision making based on satisfying options, and negotiation process based on coalition formation. This paper presents the group decision and negotiation on the selection of suitable material for a support bridge structure involving three decision makers, who are an estate manager, a project manager, and an engineer. There are three alternative solutions for the material of the support bridge structure, which are (a1) steel structure, (a2) reinforced concrete structure and (a3) wooden structure.

Keywords: Value-based, group decision, negotiation support, construction.

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Authors: Anne M. Sørebø

Abstract:

In this paper we investigate how wide-ranging organizational support and the more specific form of support, namely management support, may influence on tourism workers satisfaction with a cash transaction system. The IS continuance theory, proposed by Bhattacherjee in 2001, is utilized as a theoretical framework. This implies that both perceived usefulness and ease of use is included in the research model, in addition to organizational and management support. The sample consists of 500 workers from 10 cruise and tourist ferries in Scandinavia that use a cash transaction system to perform their work tasks. Using structural equation modelling, results indicate that organizational support and ease of use perceptions is critical for the users- level of satisfaction with the cash transaction system.The findings have implications for business managers and IS practitioners that want to increase the quality of IT-based business processes within the tourism industry.

Keywords: ease of use, IS continuance, organizational support, tourism industry, user satisfaction.

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Authors: K. Oh, J. P. Hwang, E. Kim, H. Lee

Abstract:

This paper presents an algorithm which extends the rapidly-exploring random tree (RRT) framework to deal with change of the task environments. This algorithm called the Retrieval RRT Strategy (RRS) combines a support vector machine (SVM) and RRT and plans the robot motion in the presence of the change of the surrounding environment. This algorithm consists of two levels. At the first level, the SVM is built and selects a proper path from the bank of RRTs for a given environment. At the second level, a real path is planned by the RRT planners for the given environment. The suggested method is applied to the control of KUKA™,, a commercial 6 DOF robot manipulator, and its feasibility and efficiency are demonstrated via the cosimulatation of MatLab™, and RecurDyn™,.

Keywords: Path planning, RRT, 6 DOF manipulator, SVM.

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Authors: Edlira Donefski, Lorenc Ekonomi, Tina Donefski

Abstract:

Edgeworth approximation is one of the most important statistical methods that has a considered contribution in the reduction of the sum of standard deviation of the independent variables’ coefficients in a Quantile Regression Model. This model estimates the conditional median or other quantiles. In this paper, we have applied approximating statistical methods in an economical problem. We have created and generated a quantile regression model to see how the profit gained is connected with the realized sales of the cosmetic products in a real data, taken from a local business. The Linear Regression of the generated profit and the realized sales was not free of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity, so this is the reason that we have used this model instead of Linear Regression. Our aim is to analyze in more details the relation between the variables taken into study: the profit and the finalized sales and how to minimize the standard errors of the independent variable involved in this study, the level of realized sales. The statistical methods that we have applied in our work are Edgeworth Approximation for Independent and Identical distributed (IID) cases, Bootstrap version of the Model and the Edgeworth approximation for Bootstrap Quantile Regression Model. The graphics and the results that we have presented here identify the best approximating model of our study.

Keywords: Bootstrap, Edgeworth approximation, independent and Identical distributed, quantile.

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Authors: Yong Zhang, Ruimin Hu

Abstract:

This paper presents a vocoder to obtain high quality synthetic speech at 600 bps. To reduce the bit rate, the algorithm is based on a sinusoidally excited linear prediction model which extracts few coding parameters, and three consecutive frames are grouped into a superframe and jointly vector quantization is used to obtain high coding efficiency. The inter-frame redundancy is exploited with distinct quantization schemes for different unvoiced/voiced frame combinations in the superframe. Experimental results show that the quality of the proposed coder is better than that of 2.4kbps LPC10e and achieves approximately the same as that of 2.4kbps MELP and with high robustness.

Keywords: Speech coding, Vector quantization, linear predicition, Mixed sinusoidal excitation

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Authors: Ahmet Turer

Abstract:

Middle-gate is located in Hasankeyf, Batman dating back to 1800 BC and is one of the important historical structures in Turkey. The ancient structure has suffered major structural cracks due to aging as well as lateral pressure of a cracked rock which is predicted to be about 100 tons. The existing support system was found to be inadequate to support the load especially after a recent rock fall in the close vicinity. Concerns were increased since the existing support system that is integral with a damaged and cracked gate wall needed to be replaced by a new support system. The replacement process must be carefully monitored by crackmeters and control mechanisms should be integrated to prevent cracks to expand while the same crack width needs to be maintained after the operation. The control system and actions taken during the intervention are explained in this paper.

Keywords: structural control, crack width, replacement, support

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Authors: L. Moussaoui, L. Rahmani

Abstract:

This paper deals with the direct torque control (DTC) of the induction motor. This type of control allows decoupling control between the flux and the torque without the need for a transformation of coordinates. However, as with other hysteresis-based systems, the classical DTC scheme represents a high ripple, in both the electromagnetic torque and the stator flux and a distortion in the stator current. As well, it suffers from variable switching frequency. To solve these problems various modifications, in conventional DTC scheme, have been made during the last decade. Indeed the DTC based on space vector modulation (SVM) has proved to generate very low ripples in torque and flux with constant switching frequency. It also shows almost the same dynamic performances as the classical DTC system. On the other hand, fuzzy logic is considered as an interesting alternative approach for its advantages: Analysis close to the exigencies of user, ability of nonlinear systems control, best dynamic performances and inherent quality of robustness.

Therefore, two fuzzy direct torque control approaches, for the induction motor fed by SVM-voltage source inverter, are proposed in this paper. By using these two approaches of DTC, the advantages of fuzzy logic control, space vector modulation, and direct torque control method are combined. The performances of these DTC schemes are evaluated through digital simulation using Matlab/Simulink platform and fuzzy logic tools. Simulation results illustrate the effectiveness and the superiority of the proposed Fuzzy DTC-SVM schemes in comparison to the classical DTC.

Keywords: Direct torque control, Fuzzy logic control, Induction motor, Switching frequency, Space vector modulation, Torque and flux ripples.

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Authors: Hyon I. Paek, Sang Rim Kim, Hyon A. Ryu

Abstract:

In functional linear regression, one typical problem is to reduce dimension. Compared with multivariate linear regression, functional linear regression is regarded as an infinite-dimensional case, and the main task is to reduce dimensions of functional response and functional predictors. One common approach is to adapt functional principal component analysis (FPCA) on functional predictors and then use a few leading functional principal components (FPC) to predict the functional model. The leading FPCs estimated by the typical FPCA explain a major variation of the functional predictor, but these leading FPCs may not be mostly correlated with the functional response, so they may not be significant in the prediction for response. In this paper, we propose a supervised FPCA method for a functional response model with FPCs obtained by considering the correlation of the functional response. Our method would have a better prediction accuracy than the typical FPCA method.

Keywords: Supervised, functional principal component analysis, functional response, functional linear regression.

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Authors: Cristina G. Dascalu, Elena Mihaela Carausu, Daniela Manuc

Abstract:

The medical studies often require different methods for parameters selection, as a second step of processing, after the database-s designing and filling with information. One common task is the selection of fields that act as risk factors using wellknown methods, in order to find the most relevant risk factors and to establish a possible hierarchy between them. Different methods are available in this purpose, one of the most known being the binary logistic regression. We will present the mathematical principles of this method and a practical example of using it in the analysis of the influence of 10 different psychiatric diagnostics over 4 different types of offences (in a database made from 289 psychiatric patients involved in different types of offences). Finally, we will make some observations about the relation between the risk factors hierarchy established through binary logistic regression and the individual risks, as well as the results of Chi-squared test. We will show that the hierarchy built using the binary logistic regression doesn-t agree with the direct order of risk factors, even if it was naturally to assume this hypothesis as being always true.

Keywords: Databases, risk factors, binary logisticregression, hierarchy.

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Authors: Chie Obayashi, Hidekazu Tanaka, Yoshiji Takagi

Abstract:

In multi-parameter family of distributions, conditions for a modified maximum likelihood estimator to be second order admissible are given. Applying these results to the multi-parameter logistic regression model, it is shown that the maximum likelihood estimator is always second order inadmissible. Also, conditions for the Berkson estimator to be second order admissible are given.

Keywords: Berkson estimator, modified maximum likelihood estimator, Multi-parameter logistic regression model, second order admissibility.

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Authors: Liton Jude Rozario, Mohammad Reduanul Haque, Md. Ziarul Islam, Mohammad Shorif Uddin

Abstract:

Face recognition is a technique to automatically identify or verify individuals. It receives great attention in identification, authentication, security and many more applications. Diverse methods had been proposed for this purpose and also a lot of comparative studies were performed. However, researchers could not reach unified conclusion. In this paper, we are reporting an extensive quantitative accuracy analysis of four most widely used face recognition algorithms: Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Independent Component Analysis (ICA), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) using AT&T, Sheffield and Bangladeshi people face databases under diverse situations such as illumination, alignment and pose variations.

Keywords: PCA, ICA, LDA, SVM, face recognition, noise.

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Authors: Md. Z. Alam, Devi R. Asih, Md. N. Salleh

Abstract:

Immobilization of lipase enzyme produced from palm oil mill effluent (POME) by the activated carbon (AC) among the low cost support materials was optimized. The results indicated that immobilization of 94% was achieved by AC as the most suitable support material. A sequential optimization strategy based on a statistical experimental design, including one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) method was used to determine the equilibrium time. Three components influencing lipase immobilization were optimized by the response surface methodology (RSM) based on the face-centered central composite design (FCCCD). On the statistical analysis of the results, the optimum enzyme concentration loading, agitation rate and carbon active dosage were found to be 30 U/ml, 300 rpm and 8 g/L respectively, with a maximum immobilization activity of 3732.9 U/g-AC after 2 hrs of immobilization. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed a high regression coefficient (R²) of 0.999, which indicated a satisfactory fit of the model with the experimental data. The parameters were statistically significant at p<0.05.

Keywords: Activated carbon, adsorption, immobilization, POME based lipase.

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Authors: Cheika Jahangeer, Naushad Mamode Khan, Maleika Heenaye-Mamode Khan

Abstract:

Exclusive breastfeeding is the feeding of a baby on no other milk apart from breast milk. Exclusive breastfeeding during the first 6 months of life is of fundamental importance because it supports optimal growth and development during infancy and reduces the risk of obliterating diseases and problems. Moreover, in developed countries, exclusive breastfeeding has decreased the incidence and/or severity of diarrhea, lower respiratory infection and urinary tract infection. In this paper, we study the factors that influence exclusive breastfeeding and use the Generalized Poisson regression model to analyze the practices of exclusive breastfeeding in Mauritius. We develop two sets of quasi-likelihood equations (QLE)to estimate the parameters.

Keywords: Exclusive breastfeeding, Regression model, Quasilikelihood.

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Authors: Ehab Mourtaga, Ahmad Sharieh, Mousa Abdallah

Abstract:

An automatic speech recognition system for the formal Arabic language is needed. The Quran is the most formal spoken book in Arabic, it is spoken all over the world. In this research, an automatic speech recognizer for Quranic based speakerindependent was developed and tested. The system was developed based on the tri-phone Hidden Markov Model and Maximum Likelihood Linear Regression (MLLR). The MLLR computes a set of transformations which reduces the mismatch between an initial model set and the adaptation data. It uses the regression class tree, as well as, estimates a set of linear transformations for the mean and variance parameters of a Gaussian mixture HMM system. The 30th Chapter of the Quran, with five of the most famous readers of the Quran, was used for the training and testing of the data. The chapter includes about 2000 distinct words. The advantages of using the Quranic verses as the database in this developed recognizer are the uniqueness of the words and the high level of orderliness between verses. The level of accuracy from the tested data ranged 68 to 85%.

Keywords: Hidden Markov Model (HMM), MaximumLikelihood Linear Regression (MLLR), Quran, Regression ClassTree, Speech Recognition, Speaker-independent.

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Authors: Naushad Mamode Khan, Cheika Jahangeer, Maleika Heenaye-Mamode Khan

Abstract:

Exclusive breastfeeding is the feeding of a baby on no other milk apart from breast milk. Exclusive breastfeeding during the first 6 months of life is very important as it supports optimal growth and development during infancy and reduces the risk of obliterating diseases and problems. Moreover, it helps to reduce the incidence and/or severity of diarrhea, lower respiratory infection and urinary tract infection. In this paper, we make a survey of the factors that influence exclusive breastfeeding and use two dispersed statistical models to analyze data. The models are the Generalized Poisson regression model and the Com-Poisson regression models.

Keywords: Exclusive breastfeeding, regression model, generalized poisson, com-poisson.

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Authors: D. Lingaraju, K. Ramji, M. Pramiladevi, U. Rajyalakshmi

Abstract:

Exploding concentrated underwater charges to damage underwater structures such as ship hulls is a part of naval warfare strategies. Adding small amounts of foreign particles (like clay or silica) of nanosize significantly improves the engineering properties of the polymers. In the present work the clay in terms 1, 2 and 3 percent by weight was surface treated with a suitable silane agent. The hybrid nanocomposite was prepared by the hand lay-up technique. Mathematical regression models have been employed for theoretical prediction. This will result in considerable savings in terms of project time, effort and cost.

Keywords: ANOVA, clay, halloysite, nanocomposites, underwater shock, regression, silica.

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Authors: S. Deswal, M. Pal

Abstract:

The paper aims to compare the performance of vertical and inclined multiple plunging jets and to model and predict their mass transfer capacity by multi-linear regression based approach. The multiple vertical plunging jets have jet impact angle of θ = 90^O; whereas, multiple inclined plunging jets have jet impact angle of θ = 60^O. The results of the study suggests that mass transfer is higher for multiple jets, and inclined multiple plunging jets have up to 1.6 times higher mass transfer than vertical multiple plunging jets under similar conditions. The derived relationship, based on multi-linear regression approach, has successfully predicted the volumetric mass transfer coefficient (K_La) from operational parameters of multiple plunging jets with a correlation coefficient of 0.973, root mean square error of 0.002 and coefficient of determination of 0.946. The results suggests that predicted overall mass transfer coefficient is in good agreement with actual experimental values; thereby, suggesting the utility of derived relationship based on multi-linear regression based approach and can be successfully employed in modeling mass transfer by multiple plunging jets.

Keywords: Mass transfer, multiple plunging jets, multi-linear regression.

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Authors: Ali Keshavarzi, Fereydoon Sarmadian

Abstract:

Investigation of soil properties like Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC) plays important roles in study of environmental reaserches as the spatial and temporal variability of this property have been led to development of indirect methods in estimation of this soil characteristic. Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) provide an alternative by estimating soil parameters from more readily available soil data. 70 soil samples were collected from different horizons of 15 soil profiles located in the Ziaran region, Qazvin province, Iran. Then, multivariate regression and neural network model (feedforward back propagation network) were employed to develop a pedotransfer function for predicting soil parameter using easily measurable characteristics of clay and organic carbon. The performance of the multivariate regression and neural network model was evaluated using a test data set. In order to evaluate the models, root mean square error (RMSE) was used. The value of RMSE and R2 derived by ANN model for CEC were 0.47 and 0.94 respectively, while these parameters for multivariate regression model were 0.65 and 0.88 respectively. Results showed that artificial neural network with seven neurons in hidden layer had better performance in predicting soil cation exchange capacity than multivariate regression.

Keywords: Easily measurable characteristics, Feed-forwardback propagation, Pedotransfer functions, CEC.

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Authors: Joonas Pääkkönen

Abstract:

In sports, individuals and teams are typically interested in final rankings. Final results, such as times or distances, dictate these rankings, also known as places. Places can be further associated with ordered random variables, commonly referred to as order statistics. In this work, we introduce a simple, yet accurate order statistical ordinal regression function that predicts relay race places with changeover-times. We call this function the Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics model. This model is built on the following educated assumption: individual leg-times follow log-normal distributions. Moreover, our key idea is to utilize Fenton-Wilkinson approximations of changeover-times alongside an estimator for the total number of teams as in the notorious German tank problem. This original place regression function is sigmoidal and thus correctly predicts the existence of a small number of elite teams that significantly outperform the rest of the teams. Our model also describes how place increases linearly with changeover-time at the inflection point of the log-normal distribution function. With real-world data from Jukola 2019, a massive orienteering relay race, the model is shown to be highly accurate even when the size of the training set is only 5% of the whole data set. Numerical results also show that our model exhibits smaller place prediction root-mean-square-errors than linear regression, mord regression and Gaussian process regression.

Keywords: Fenton-Wilkinson approximation, German tank problem, log-normal distribution, order statistics, ordinal regression, orienteering, sports analytics, sports modeling.

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