Search results for: constitutive modelling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 651

Search results for: constitutive modelling

291 A Boundary Fitted Nested Grid Model for Modelling Tsunami Propagation of 2004 Indonesian Tsunami along Southern Thailand

Authors: Md. Fazlul Karim, Esa Al-Islam

Abstract:

This paper describes the development of a boundary fitted nested grid (BFNG) model to compute tsunami propagation of 2004 Indonesian tsunami in Southern Thailand coastal waters. We develop a numerical model employing the shallow water nested model and an orthogonal boundary fitted grid to investigate the tsunami impact on the Southern Thailand due to the Indonesian tsunami of 2004. Comparisons of water surface elevation obtained from numerical simulations and field measurements are made.

Keywords: Boundary-fitted nested grid model, finite difference method, Indonesian tsunami of 2004, Southern Thailand.

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290 Evaluation of Biomass Introduction Methods in Coal Co-Gasification

Authors: Ruwaida Abdul Rasid, Kevin J. Hughes, Peter J. Heggs, Mohamed Pourkashanian

Abstract:

Heightened concerns over the amount of carbon emitted from coal-related processes are generating shifts to the application of biomass. In co-gasification, where coal is gasified along with biomass, the biomass may be fed together with coal (cofeeding) or an independent biomass gasifier needs to be integrated with the coal gasifier. The main aim of this work is to evaluate the biomass introduction methods in coal co-gasification. This includes the evaluation of biomass concentration input (B0 to B100) and its gasification performance. A process model is developed and simulated in Aspen HYSYS, where both coal and biomass are modelled according to its ultimate analysis. It was found that the syngas produced increased with increasing biomass content for both co-feeding and independent schemes. However, the heating values and heat duties decreases with biomass concentration as more CO2 are produced from complete combustion.

Keywords: Aspen HYSYS, biomass, coal, co-gasification modelling and simulation.

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289 A Numerical and Experimental Analysis of the Performance of a Combined Solar Unit for Air Conditioning and Water Desalination

Authors: Zied Guidara, Alexander Morgenstern, Aref Younes Maalej

Abstract:

In this paper, a desiccant solar unit for air conditioning and desalination is presented first. Secondly, a dynamic modelling study of the desiccant wheel is developed. After that, a simulation study and an experimental investigation of the behaviour of desiccant wheel are developed. The experimental investigation is done in the chamber of commerce in Freiburg-Germany. Indeed, the variations of calculated and measured temperatures and specific humidity of dehumidified and rejected air are presented where a good agreement is found when comparing the model predictions with experimental data under the considered range of operating conditions. Finally, the study of the compartments of desalination and water condensation shows that the unit can produce an acceptable quantity of water at the same time of the air conditioning operation.

Keywords: Air conditioning, desalination, condensation, design, desiccant wheel.

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288 Normalizing Logarithms of Realized Volatility in an ARFIMA Model

Authors: G. L. C. Yap

Abstract:

Modelling realized volatility with high-frequency returns is popular as it is an unbiased and efficient estimator of return volatility. A computationally simple model is fitting the logarithms of the realized volatilities with a fractionally integrated long-memory Gaussian process. The Gaussianity assumption simplifies the parameter estimation using the Whittle approximation. Nonetheless, this assumption may not be met in the finite samples and there may be a need to normalize the financial series. Based on the empirical indices S&P500 and DAX, this paper examines the performance of the linear volatility model pre-treated with normalization compared to its existing counterpart. The empirical results show that by including normalization as a pre-treatment procedure, the forecast performance outperforms the existing model in terms of statistical and economic evaluations.

Keywords: Long-memory, Gaussian process, Whittle estimator, normalization, volatility, value-at-risk.

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287 Embedded Systems Energy Consumption Analysis Through Co-modelling and Simulation

Authors: José Antonio Esparza Isasa, Finn Overgaard Hansen, Peter Gorm Larsen

Abstract:

This paper presents a new methodology to study power and energy consumption in mechatronic systems early in the development process. This new approach makes use of two modeling languages to represent and simulate embedded control software and electromechanical subsystems in the discrete event and continuous time domain respectively within a single co-model. This co-model enables an accurate representation of power and energy consumption and facilitates the analysis and development of both software and electro-mechanical subsystems in parallel. This makes the engineers aware of energy-wise implications of different design alternatives and enables early trade-off analysis from the beginning of the analysis and design activities.

Keywords: Energy consumption, embedded systems, modeldriven engineering, power awareness.

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286 Modelling and Simulation of the Freezing Systems and Heat Pumps Using Unisim® Design

Authors: C. Patrascioiu

Abstract:

The paper describes the modeling and simulation of the heat pumps domain processes. The main objective of the study is the use of the heat pump in propene–propane distillation processes. The modeling and simulation instrument is the Unisim® Design simulator. The paper is structured in three parts: An overview of the compressing gases, the modeling and simulation of the freezing systems, and the modeling and simulation of the heat pumps. For each of these systems, there are presented the Unisim® Design simulation diagrams, the input–output system structure and the numerical results. Future studies will consider modeling and simulation of the propene–propane distillation process with heat pump.

Keywords: Distillation, heat pump, simulation, Unisim Design.

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285 An Ontology Model for Systems Engineering Derived from ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288: 2015: Systems and Software Engineering - System Life Cycle Processes

Authors: Lan Yang, Kathryn Cormican, Ming Yu

Abstract:

ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288: 2015, Systems and Software Engineering - System Life Cycle Processes is an international standard that provides generic top-level process descriptions to support systems engineering (SE). However, the processes defined in the standard needs improvement to lift integrity and consistency. The goal of this research is to explore the way by building an ontology model for the SE standard to manage the knowledge of SE. The ontology model gives a whole picture of the SE knowledge domain by building connections between SE concepts. Moreover, it creates a hierarchical classification of the concepts to fulfil different requirements of displaying and analysing SE knowledge.

Keywords: Knowledge management, model-based systems engineering, ontology modelling, systems engineering ontology.

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284 The Development of Decision Support System for Waste Management; a Review

Authors: M. S. Bani, Z. A. Rashid, K. H. K. Hamid, M. E. Harbawi, A.B.Alias, M. J. Aris

Abstract:

Most Decision Support Systems (DSS) for waste management (WM) constructed are not widely marketed and lack practical applications. This is due to the number of variables and complexity of the mathematical models which include the assumptions and constraints required in decision making. The approach made by many researchers in DSS modelling is to isolate a few key factors that have a significant influence to the DSS. This segmented approach does not provide a thorough understanding of the complex relationships of the many elements involved. The various elements in constructing the DSS must be integrated and optimized in order to produce a viable model that is marketable and has practical application. The DSS model used in assisting decision makers should be integrated with GIS, able to give robust prediction despite the inherent uncertainties of waste generation and the plethora of waste characteristics, and gives optimal allocation of waste stream for recycling, incineration, landfill and composting.

Keywords: Review, decision support system, GIS and waste management.

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283 Antecedents and Consequences of Social Media Adoption in Travel and Tourism: Evidence from Customers and Industry

Authors: Mohamed A. Abou-Shouk, Mahamoud M. Hewedi

Abstract:

This study extends technology acceptance model (TAM) to investigate the antecedents and consequences of social media adoption by tourists and travel agents. It compares their perceptions on social media adoption and its consequences. Online survey was addressed to tourists and travel agents for data collection purposes. Structural equation modelling was employed for analysis purposes. The findings revealed that the majority of tourists and travel agents involved in the study believe in the usefulness of social media adoption for travel planning and marketing purposes. They agree that adopting social media could change the attitude of tourists towards specific destination or attraction and influence their purchasing decisions. This study contributes to knowledge by extending TAM and provides some managerial implication to marketers.

Keywords: TAM, social media, travel, tourism, travel agents.

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282 Modeling Erosion Control in Oil Production Wells

Authors: Kenneth I.Eshiet, Yong Sheng

Abstract:

The sand production problem has led researchers into making various attempts to understand the phenomenon. The generally accepted concept is that the occurrence of sanding is due to the in-situ stress conditions and the induced changes in stress that results in the failure of the reservoir sandstone during hydrocarbon production from wellbores. By using a hypothetical cased (perforated) well, an approach to the problem is presented here by using Finite Element numerical modelling techniques. In addition to the examination of the erosion problem, the influence of certain key parameters is studied in order to ascertain their effect on the failure and subsequent erosion process. The major variables investigated include: drawdown, perforation depth, and the erosion criterion. Also included is the determination of the optimal mud pressure for given operational and reservoir conditions. The improved understanding between parameters enables the choice of optimal values to minimize sanding during oil production.

Keywords: Equivalent Plastic Strain, Erosion, Hydrocarbon Production.

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281 Virtual Mechanical Engineering Education – A Case Study

Authors: S. H. R. Lo

Abstract:

Virtual engineering technology has undergone rapid progress in recent years and is being adopted increasingly by manufacturing companies of many engineering disciplines. There is an increasing demand from industry for qualified virtual engineers. The qualified virtual engineers should have the ability of applying engineering principles and mechanical design methods within the commercial software package environment. It is a challenge to the engineering education in universities which traditionally tends to lack the integration of knowledge and skills required for solving real world problems. In this paper, a case study shows some recent development of a MSc Mechanical Engineering course at Department of Engineering and Technology in MMU, and in particular, two units Simulation of Mechanical Systems(SMS) and Computer Aided Fatigue Analysis(CAFA) that emphasize virtual engineering education and promote integration of knowledge acquisition, skill training and industrial application.

Keywords: Computational modelling and simulation, mechanical engineering education.

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280 Systemic Approach to Risk Measurement of Drainage Systems in Urban Areas

Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater.

In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: Drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement.

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279 Developing Measurement Model of Interpersonal Skills of Youth

Authors: Mohd Yusri Ibrahim

Abstract:

Although it is known that interpersonal skills are essential for personal development, the debate however continues as to how to measure those skills, especially in youths. This study was conducted to develop a measurement model of interpersonal skills by suggesting three construct namely personal, skills and relationship; six function namely self, perception, listening, conversation, emotion and conflict management; and 30 behaviours as indicators. This cross-sectional survey by questionnaires was applied in east side of peninsula of Malaysia for 150 respondents, and analyzed by structural equation modelling (SEM) by AMOS. The suggested constructs, functions and indicators were consider accepted as measurement elements by observing on regression weight for standard loading, average variance extracted (AVE) for convergent validity, square root of AVE for discriminant validity, composite reliability (CR), and at least three fit indexes for model fitness. Finally, a measurement model of interpersonal skill for youth was successfully developed.

Keywords: Interpersonal communication, interpersonal skill, youth.

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278 Testing of Materials for Rapid Prototyping Fused Deposition Modelling Technology

Authors: L. Novakova-Marcincinova, J. Novak-Marcincin

Abstract:

Paper presents knowledge about types of test in area of materials properties of selected methods of rapid prototyping technologies. In today used rapid prototyping technologies for production of models and final parts are used materials in initial state as solid, liquid or powder material structure. In solid state are used various forms such as pellets, wire or laminates. Basic range materials include paper, nylon, wax, resins, metals and ceramics. In Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM) rapid prototyping technology are mainly used as basic materials ABS (Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene), polyamide, polycarbonate, polyethylene and polypropylene. For advanced FDM applications are used special materials as silicon nitrate, PZT (Piezoceramic Material - Lead Zirconate Titanate), aluminium oxide, hydroxypatite and stainless steel.

Keywords: Rapid prototyping, materials, testing of materials.

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277 An Innovative Approach to the Formulation of Connection Admission Control Problem

Authors: Carlo Bruni, Francesco Delli Priscoli, Giorgio Koch, Ilaria Marchetti

Abstract:

This paper proposes an innovative approach for the Connection Admission Control (CAC) problem. Starting from an abstract network modelling, the CAC problem is formulated in a technology independent fashion allowing the proposed concepts to be applied to any wireless and wired domain. The proposed CAC is decoupled from the other Resource Management procedures, but cooperates with them in order to guarantee the desired QoS requirements. Moreover, it is based on suitable performance measurements which, by using proper predictors, allow to forecast the domain dynamics in the next future. Finally, the proposed CAC control scheme is based on a feedback loop aiming at maximizing a suitable performance index accounting for the domain throughput, whilst respecting a set of constraints accounting for the QoS requirements.

Keywords: Network Management, Quality of Service (QoS) requirements, Optimal Control.

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276 Experimental Investigation of On-Body Channel Modelling at 2.45 GHz

Authors: Hasliza A. Rahim, Fareq Malek, Nur A. M. Affendi, Azuwa Ali, Norshafinash Saudin, Latifah Mohamed

Abstract:

This paper presents the experimental investigation of on-body channel fading at 2.45 GHz considering two effects of the user body movement; stationary and mobile. A pair of body-worn antennas was utilized in this measurement campaign. A statistical analysis was performed by comparing the measured on-body path loss to five well-known distributions; lognormal, normal, Nakagami, Weibull and Rayleigh. The results showed that the average path loss of moving arm varied higher than the path loss in sitting position for upper-arm-to-left-chest link, up to 3.5 dB. The analysis also concluded that the Nakagami distribution provided the best fit for most of on-body static link path loss in standing still and sitting position, while the arm movement can be best described by log-normal distribution.

Keywords: On-Body channel communications, fading characteristics, statistical model.

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275 Modelling Export Dynamics in the CSEE Countries Using GVAR Model

Authors: S. Jakšić, B. Žmuk

Abstract:

The paper investigates the key factors of export dynamics for a set of Central and Southeast European (CSEE) countries in the context of current economic and financial crisis. In order to model the export dynamics a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model is defined. As opposed to models which model each country separately, the GVAR combines all country models in a global model which enables obtaining important information on spillover effects in the context of globalisation and rising international linkages. The results of the study indicate that for most of the CSEE countries, exports are mainly driven by domestic shocks, both in the short run and in the long run. This study is the first application of the GVAR model to studying the export dynamics in the CSEE countries and therefore the results of the study present an important empirical contribution.

Keywords: Export, GFEVD, Global VAR, International trade, weak exogeneity.

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274 Influence of Surface Area on Dissolution of Additively Manufactured Polyvinyl Alcohol Tablets

Authors: Seyedebrahim Afkhami, Meisam Abdi, Reza Baserinia

Abstract:

Additive manufacturing is revolutionizing production in different industries, including pharmaceuticals. This case study explores the influence of surface area on the dissolution of additively manufactured polyvinyl alcohol parts as a polymer candidate. Specimens of different geometries and constant mass were fabricated using a Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM) 3D printer. The dissolution behavior of these samples was compared with respect to their surface area. Improved and accelerated dissolution was observed for samples with a larger surface area. This study highlights the capabilities of additive manufacturing to produce samples of complex geometries that cannot be manufactured otherwise to control the dissolution behavior for pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical applications.

Keywords: Additive manufacturing, polymer dissolution, fused deposition modelling, geometry optimization.

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273 Study of the Flow Structure in a Penstock in Unsteady Regime

Authors: F. Nkontchou Ngongang, M. Tchawe Tchawe, B. Djeumako, B. Kenmeugne

Abstract:

In this work, the flow structure in the Songloulou dam, is visualized in a time interval to observe the different fluid layers in our structure. Firstly, the three-dimensional modelling of the penstock is carried out in the software Gambit, followed by calculations in Fluent that proceeds introduction of boundary conditions. After calculation, we identified four periods corresponding to four regimes. In the first, spanning from 0.00 to 1.50s, we have the non-developed hydraulically rough turbulent regime, characterized by abrupt variations with modifications of the velocity fields. The second extends from 1.50 to 3.50s, where we have the transition regime characterized by slight variations and modifications of the velocity fields but with a great difference of the values of the current lines. From 3.50 to 5.00s, we encounter the third, which is the fully developed turbulent hydraulically rough regime, characterized by fields that vary no more, but have minute differences in the streamlines. The last period is from 5.00s and more, where we have a flow that is almost stationary, hence there are no changes in the fields.

Keywords: Unsteady flow, penstock, friction coefficient, hydroelectric dam.

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272 Simulation and Analytical Investigation of Different Combination of Single Phase Power Transformers

Authors: M. Salih Taci, N. Tayebi, I. Bozkır

Abstract:

In this paper, the equivalent circuit of the ideal single-phase power transformer with its appropriate voltage current measurement was presented. The calculated values of the voltages and currents of the different connections single phase normal transformer and the results of the simulation process are compared. As it can be seen, the calculated results are the same as the simulated results. This paper includes eight possible different transformer connections. Depending on the desired voltage level, step-down and step-up application transformer is considered. Modelling and analysis of a system consisting of an equivalent source, transformer (primary and secondary), and loads are performed to investigate the combinations. The obtained values are simulated in PSpice environment and then how the currents, voltages and phase angle are distributed between them is explained based on calculation.

Keywords: Transformer, simulation, equivalent model, parallel series combinations.

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271 Identification of Nonlinear Systems Using Radial Basis Function Neural Network

Authors: C. Pislaru, A. Shebani

Abstract:

This paper uses the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) for system identification of nonlinear systems. Five nonlinear systems are used to examine the activity of RBFNN in system modeling of nonlinear systems; the five nonlinear systems are dual tank system, single tank system, DC motor system, and two academic models. The feed forward method is considered in this work for modelling the non-linear dynamic models, where the KMeans clustering algorithm used in this paper to select the centers of radial basis function network, because it is reliable, offers fast convergence and can handle large data sets. The least mean square method is used to adjust the weights to the output layer, and Euclidean distance method used to measure the width of the Gaussian function.

Keywords: System identification, Nonlinear system, Neural networks, RBF neural network.

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270 EML-Estimation of Multivariate t Copulas with Heuristic Optimization

Authors: Jin Zhang, Wing Lon Ng

Abstract:

In recent years, copulas have become very popular in financial research and actuarial science as they are more flexible in modelling the co-movements and relationships of risk factors as compared to the conventional linear correlation coefficient by Pearson. However, a precise estimation of the copula parameters is vital in order to correctly capture the (possibly nonlinear) dependence structure and joint tail events. In this study, we employ two optimization heuristics, namely Differential Evolution and Threshold Accepting to tackle the parameter estimation of multivariate t distribution models in the EML approach. Since the evolutionary optimizer does not rely on gradient search, the EML approach can be applied to estimation of more complicated copula models such as high-dimensional copulas. Our experimental study shows that the proposed method provides more robust and more accurate estimates as compared to the IFM approach.

Keywords: Copula Models, Student t Copula, Parameter Inference, Differential Evolution, Threshold Accepting.

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269 Monitoring of Dielectric Losses and Use of Ferrofluids for Bushing Cooling

Authors: S. D. Nedelcut, V. Proca, D. M. Purcaru

Abstract:

At present, the tendency to implement the conditionbased maintenance (CBM), which allows the optimization of the expenses for equipment monitoring, is more and more evident; also, the transformer substations with remote monitoring are increasingly used. This paper reviews all the advantages of the on-line monitoring and presents an equipment for on-line monitoring of bushings, which is the own contribution of specialists who are the authors of this paper. The paper presents a study of the temperature field, using the finite element method. For carrying out this study, the 3D modelling of the above mentioned bushing was performed. The analysis study is done taking into account the extreme thermal stresses, focusing at the level of the first cooling wing section of the ceramic insulator. This fact enables to justify the tanδ variation in time, depending on the transformer loading and the environmental conditions. With a view to reducing the variation of dielectric losses in bushing insulation, the use of ferrofuids instead of mineral oils is proposed.

Keywords: Monitoring, dielectric losses, ferrofluids, bushing.

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268 A Large-Eddy Simulation of Vortex Cell flow with Incoming Turbulent Boundary Layer

Authors: Arpiruk Hokpunna, Michael Manhart

Abstract:

We present a Large-Eddy simulation of a vortex cell with circular shaped. The results show that the flow field can be sub divided into four important zones, the shear layer above the cavity, the stagnation zone, the vortex core in the cavity and the boundary layer along the wall of the cavity. It is shown that the vortex core consits of solid body rotation without much turbulence activity. The vortex is mainly driven by high energy packets that are driven into the cavity from the stagnation point region and by entrainment of fluid from the cavity into the shear layer. The physics in the boundary layer along the cavity-s wall seems to be far from that of a canonical boundary layer which might be a crucial point for modelling this flow.

Keywords: Turbulent flow, Large eddy simulations, boundary layer and cavity flow, vortex cell flow.

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267 Speed Control of a Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machine (PMSM) Fed by an Inverter Voltage Fuzzy Control Approach

Authors: Jamel Khedri, Mohamed Chaabane, Mansour Souissi, Driss Mehdi

Abstract:

This paper deals with the synthesis of fuzzy controller applied to a permanent magnet synchronous machine (PMSM) with a guaranteed H∞ performance. To design this fuzzy controller, nonlinear model of the PMSM is approximated by Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model (T-S fuzzy model), then the so-called parallel distributed compensation (PDC) is employed. Next, we derive the property of the H∞ norm. The latter is cast in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMI-s) while minimizing the H∞ norm of the transfer function between the disturbance and the error ( ) ev T . The experimental and simulations results were conducted on a permanent magnet synchronous machine to illustrate the effects of the fuzzy modelling and the controller design via the PDC.

Keywords: Feedback controller, Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model, Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI), PMSM, H∞ performance.

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266 Continuum-Based Modelling Approaches for Cell Mechanics

Authors: Yogesh D. Bansod, Jiri Bursa

Abstract:

The quantitative study of cell mechanics is of paramount interest, since it regulates the behaviour of the living cells in response to the myriad of extracellular and intracellular mechanical stimuli. The novel experimental techniques together with robust computational approaches have given rise to new theories and models, which describe cell mechanics as combination of biomechanical and biochemical processes. This review paper encapsulates the existing continuum-based computational approaches that have been developed for interpreting the mechanical responses of living cells under different loading and boundary conditions. The salient features and drawbacks of each model are discussed from both structural and biological points of view. This discussion can contribute to the development of even more precise and realistic computational models of cell mechanics based on continuum approaches or on their combination with microstructural approaches, which in turn may provide a better understanding of mechanotransduction in living cells.

Keywords: Cell mechanics, computational models, continuum approach, mechanical models.

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265 Analytical Crack Propagation Scenario for Gear Teeth and Time-Varying Gear Mesh Stiffness

Authors: Omar D. Mohammed, Matti Rantatalo, Uday Kumar

Abstract:

In this paper an analytical crack propagation scenario is proposed which assumes that a crack propagates in the tooth root in both the crack depth direction and the tooth width direction, and which is more reasonable and realistic for non-uniform load distribution cases than the other presented scenarios. An analytical approach is used for quantifying the loss of time-varying gear mesh stiffness with the presence of crack propagation in the gear tooth root. The proposed crack propagation scenario can be applied for crack propagation modelling and monitoring simulation, but further research is required for comparison and evaluation of all the presented crack propagation scenarios from the condition monitoring point of view.

Keywords: Crack propagation, Gear tooth crack, Time varying gear mesh stiffness.

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264 A Study of Quality Assurance and Unit Verification Methods in Safety Critical Environment

Authors: Miklos Taliga

Abstract:

In the present case study we examined the development and testing methods of systems that contain safety-critical elements in different industrial fields. Consequentially, we observed the classical object-oriented development and testing environment, as both medical technology and automobile industry approaches the development of safety critical elements that way. Subsequently, we examined model-based development. We introduce the quality parameters that define development and testing. While taking modern agile methodology (scrum) into consideration, we examined whether and to what extent the methodologies we found fit into this environment.

Keywords: Safety-critical elements, quality management, unit verification, model base testing, agile methods, scrum, metamodel, object-oriented programming, field specific modelling, sprint, user story, UML Standard.

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263 Analyzing the Factors Effecting the Passenger Car Breakdowns using Com-Poisson GLM

Authors: N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

Abstract:

Number of breakdowns experienced by a machinery is a highly under-dispersed count random variable and its value can be attributed to the factors related to the mechanical input and output of that machinery. Analyzing such under-dispersed count observations as a function of the explanatory factors has been a challenging problem. In this paper, we aim at estimating the effects of various factors on the number of breakdowns experienced by a passenger car based on a study performed in Mauritius over a year. We remark that the number of passenger car breakdowns is highly under-dispersed. These data are therefore modelled and analyzed using Com-Poisson regression model. We use quasi-likelihood estimation approach to estimate the parameters of the model. Under-dispersion parameter is estimated to be 2.14 justifying the appropriateness of Com-Poisson distribution in modelling under-dispersed count responses recorded in this study.

Keywords: Breakdowns, under-dispersion, com-poisson, generalized linear model, quasi-likelihood estimation

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262 Modelling of Groundwater Resources for Al-Najaf City, Iraq

Authors: Hayder H. Kareem, Shunqi Pan

Abstract:

Groundwater is a vital water resource in many areas in the world, particularly in the Middle-East region where the water resources become scarce and depleting. Sustainable management and planning of the groundwater resources become essential and urgent given the impact of the global climate change. In the recent years, numerical models have been widely used to predict the flow pattern and assess the water resources security, as well as the groundwater quality affected by the contaminants transported. In this study, MODFLOW is used to study the current status of groundwater resources and the risk of water resource security in the region centred at Al-Najaf City, which is located in the mid-west of Iraq and adjacent to the Euphrates River. In this study, a conceptual model is built using the geologic and hydrogeologic collected for the region, together with the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data obtained from the "Global Land Cover Facility" (GLCF) and "United State Geological Survey" (USGS) for the study area. The computer model is also implemented with the distributions of 69 wells in the area with the steady pro-defined hydraulic head along its boundaries. The model is then applied with the recharge rate (from precipitation) of 7.55 mm/year, given from the analysis of the field data in the study area for the period of 1980-2014. The hydraulic conductivity from the measurements at the locations of wells is interpolated for model use. The model is calibrated with the measured hydraulic heads at the locations of 50 of 69 wells in the domain and results show a good agreement. The standard-error-of-estimate (SEE), root-mean-square errors (RMSE), Normalized RMSE and correlation coefficient are 0.297 m, 2.087 m, 6.899% and 0.971 respectively. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out, and it is found that the model is sensitive to recharge, particularly when the rate is greater than (15mm/year). Hydraulic conductivity is found to be another parameter which can affect the results significantly, therefore it requires high quality field data. The results show that there is a general flow pattern from the west to east of the study area, which agrees well with the observations and the gradient of the ground surface. It is found that with the current operational pumping rates of the wells in the area, a dry area is resulted in Al-Najaf City due to the large quantity of groundwater withdrawn. The computed water balance with the current operational pumping quantity shows that the Euphrates River supplies water into the groundwater of approximately 11759 m3/day, instead of gaining water of 11178 m3/day from the groundwater if no pumping from the wells. It is expected that the results obtained from the study can provide important information for the sustainable and effective planning and management of the regional groundwater resources for Al-Najaf City.

Keywords: Al-Najaf city, conceptual modelling, groundwater, unconfined aquifer, visual MODFLOW.

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