Search results for: Rule Based Modeling

Authors: Wint Thida Zaw, Thinn Thu Naing

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One of the essential sectors of Myanmar economy is agriculture which is sensitive to climate variation. The most important climatic element which impacts on agriculture sector is rainfall. Thus rainfall prediction becomes an important issue in agriculture country. Multi variables polynomial regression (MPR) provides an effective way to describe complex nonlinear input output relationships so that an outcome variable can be predicted from the other or others. In this paper, the modeling of monthly rainfall prediction over Myanmar is described in detail by applying the polynomial regression equation. The proposed model results are compared to the results produced by multiple linear regression model (MLR). Experiments indicate that the prediction model based on MPR has higher accuracy than using MLR.

Keywords: Polynomial Regression, Rainfall Forecasting, Statistical forecasting.

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Authors: Bothinah Altaf, Gary Montague, Elaine B. Martin

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This study involves the modeling and monitoring of an ammonia synthesis fixed-bed reactor using partial least squares (PLS) and its variants. The process exhibits complex dynamic behavior due to the presence of heat recycling and feed quench. One limitation of static PLS model in this situation is that it does not take account of the process dynamics and hence dynamic PLS was used. Although it showed, superior performance to static PLS in terms of prediction, the monitoring scheme was inappropriate hence adaptive PLS was considered. A limitation of adaptive PLS is that non-conforming observations also contribute to the model, therefore, a new adaptive approach was developed, robust adaptive dynamic PLS. This approach updates a dynamic PLS model and is robust to non-representative data. The developed methodology showed a clear improvement over existing approaches in terms of the modeling of the reactor and the detection of faults.

Keywords: Ammonia synthesis fixed-bed reactor, dynamic partial least squares modeling, recursive partial least squares, robust modeling.

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Authors: W. D. Wan Rosli, Z. Zainuddin, R. Lanouette, S. Sathasivam

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This paper reports work done to improve the modeling of complex processes when only small experimental data sets are available. Neural networks are used to capture the nonlinear underlying phenomena contained in the data set and to partly eliminate the burden of having to specify completely the structure of the model. Two different types of neural networks were used for the application of Pulping of Sugar Maple problem. A three layer feed forward neural networks, using the Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient (PCG) methods were used in this investigation. Preconditioning is a method to improve convergence by lowering the condition number and increasing the eigenvalues clustering. The idea is to solve the modified problem where M is a positive-definite preconditioner that is closely related to A. We mainly focused on Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient- based training methods which originated from optimization theory, namely Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient with Fletcher-Reeves Update (PCGF), Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient with Polak-Ribiere Update (PCGP) and Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient with Powell-Beale Restarts (PCGB). The behavior of the PCG methods in the simulations proved to be robust against phenomenon such as oscillations due to large step size.

Keywords: Convergence, Modeling, Neural Networks, Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient.

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Authors: Chokri Jebali, Noureddine Boulejfen, Ali Gharsallah, Fadhel M. Ghannouchi

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In this paper, a system level behavioural model for RF power amplifier, which exhibits memory effects, and based on multibranch system is proposed. When higher order terms are included, the memory polynomial model (MPM) exhibits numerical instabilities. A set of memory orthogonal polynomial model (OMPM) is introduced to alleviate the numerical instability problem associated to MPM model. A data scaling and centring algorithm was applied to improve the power amplifier modeling accuracy. Simulation results prove that the numerical instability can be greatly reduced, as well as the model precision improved with nonlinear model.

Keywords: power amplifier, orthogonal model, polynomialmodel , memory effects.

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Authors: Daehwan Kim, Jaemin Kim, Seongwon Cho, Yongsuk Jang, Sun-Tae Chung, Boo-Gyoun Kim

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AAM has been successfully applied to face alignment, but its performance is very sensitive to initial values. In case the initial values are a little far distant from the global optimum values, there exists a pretty good possibility that AAM-based face alignment may converge to a local minimum. In this paper, we propose a progressive AAM-based face alignment algorithm which first finds the feature parameter vector fitting the inner facial feature points of the face and later localize the feature points of the whole face using the first information. The proposed progressive AAM-based face alignment algorithm utilizes the fact that the feature points of the inner part of the face are less variant and less affected by the background surrounding the face than those of the outer part (like the chin contour). The proposed algorithm consists of two stages: modeling and relation derivation stage and fitting stage. Modeling and relation derivation stage first needs to construct two AAM models: the inner face AAM model and the whole face AAM model and then derive relation matrix between the inner face AAM parameter vector and the whole face AAM model parameter vector. In the fitting stage, the proposed algorithm aligns face progressively through two phases. In the first phase, the proposed algorithm will find the feature parameter vector fitting the inner facial AAM model into a new input face image, and then in the second phase it localizes the whole facial feature points of the new input face image based on the whole face AAM model using the initial parameter vector estimated from using the inner feature parameter vector obtained in the first phase and the relation matrix obtained in the first stage. Through experiments, it is verified that the proposed progressive AAM-based face alignment algorithm is more robust with respect to pose, illumination, and face background than the conventional basic AAM-based face alignment algorithm.

Keywords: Face Alignment, AAM, facial feature detection, model matching.

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Authors: Robest Flasza, Milan Rippel, Jan Solc

Abstract:

The main aim of this paper is to develop and calibrate an econometric model for modeling prices of long term electricity futures contracts. The calibration of our model is performed on data from EEX AG allowing us to capture the specific features of German electricity market. The data sample contains several structural breaks which have to be taken into account for modeling. We model the data with an ARIMAX model which reveals high correlation between the price of electricity futures contracts and prices of LT futures contracts of fuels (namely coal, natural gas and crude oil). Besides this, also a share price index of representative electricity companies traded on Xetra, spread between 10Y and 1Y German bonds and exchange rate between EUR and USD appeared to have significant explanatory power over these futures contracts on EEX.

Keywords: electricity futures, EEX, ARIMAX, emissionallowances

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Authors: Sarma Cakula, Maija Sedleniece

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Simulation and modeling computer programs are concerned with construction of models for analyzing different perspectives and possibilities in changing conditions environment. The paper presents theoretical justification and evaluation of qualitative e-learning development model in perspective of advancing modern technologies. There have been analyzed principles of qualitative e-learning in higher education, productivity of studying process using modern technologies, different kind of methods and future perspectives of e-learning in formal education. Theoretically grounded and practically tested model of developing e-learning methods using different technologies for different type of classroom, which can be used in professor-s decision making process to choose the most effective e-learning methods has been worked out.

Keywords: E-learning, modeling, E-learning methods development, personal knowledge management

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Authors: M. Sedighizadeh, A. Rezazadeh

Abstract:

A method has been developed for preparing load models for power flow and stability. The load modeling (LOADMOD) computer software transforms data on load class mix, composition, and characteristics into the from required for commonly–used power flow and transient stability simulation programs. Typical default data have been developed for load composition and characteristics. This paper defines LOADMOD software and describes the dynamic and static load modeling techniques used in this software and results of initial testing for BAKHTAR power system.

Keywords: Load Modelling, Static, Power Flow.

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Authors: Tsuyoshi Okita

Abstract:

For a given specific problem an efficient algorithm has been the matter of study. However, an alternative approach orthogonal to this approach comes out, which is called a reduction. In general for a given specific problem this reduction approach studies how to convert an original problem into subproblems. This paper proposes a formal modeling language to support this reduction approach in order to make a solver quickly. We show three examples from the wide area of learning problems. The benefit is a fast prototyping of algorithms for a given new problem. It is noted that our formal modeling language is not intend for providing an efficient notation for data mining application, but for facilitating a designer who develops solvers in machine learning.

Keywords: Formal language, statistical inference problem, reduction.

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Authors: Shirong Li, Xueping Xiang

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Construction site safety in China has aroused comprehensive concern all over the world. It is imperative to investigate the main causes of poor construction site safety. This paper divides all the causes into four aspects, namely the factors of workers, object, environment and management and sets up the accident causes element system based on Delphi Method. This is followed by the application of structural equation modeling to examine the importance of each aspect of causes from the standpoints of different roles related to the construction respectively. The results indicate that all the four aspects of factors are in need of improvement, and different roles have different ideas considering the priority of those factors. The paper has instructive significance for the practitioners to take measures to improve construction site safety in China accordingly.

Keywords: construction site safety, Delphi Method, structuralequation modeling, different perspective.

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Authors: M.V Rajesh, Archana R, A Unnikrishnan, R Gopikakumari, Jeevamma Jacob

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The System Identification problem looks for a suitably parameterized model, representing a given process. The parameters of the model are adjusted to optimize a performance function based on error between the given process output and identified process output. The linear system identification field is well established with many classical approaches whereas most of those methods cannot be applied for nonlinear systems. The problem becomes tougher if the system is completely unknown with only the output time series is available. It has been reported that the capability of Artificial Neural Network to approximate all linear and nonlinear input-output maps makes it predominantly suitable for the identification of nonlinear systems, where only the output time series is available. [1][2][4][5]. The work reported here is an attempt to implement few of the well known algorithms in the context of modeling of nonlinear systems, and to make a performance comparison to establish the relative merits and demerits.

Keywords: Multilayer neural networks, Radial Basis Functions, Clustering algorithm, Back Propagation training, Extended Kalmanfiltering, Mean Square Error, Nonlinear Modeling, Cramer RaoLower Bound.

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Authors: Miroslav Popelka, Jakub Nožička

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The whole work is based on possibility to use Lego Mindstorms robotics systems to reduce costs. Lego Mindstorms consists of a wide variety of hardware components necessary to simulate, programme and test of robotics systems in practice. To programme algorithm, which simulates space using the ultrasonic sensor, was used development environment supplied with kit. Software Matlab was used to render values afterwards they were measured by ultrasonic sensor. The algorithm created for this paper uses theoretical knowledge from area of signal processing. Data being processed by algorithm are collected by ultrasonic sensor that scans 2D space in front of it. Ultrasonic sensor is placed on moving arm of robot which provides horizontal moving of sensor. Vertical movement of sensor is provided by wheel drive. The robot follows map in order to get correct positioning of measured data. Based on discovered facts it is possible to consider Lego Mindstorm for low-cost and capable kit for real-time modelling.

Keywords: LEGO Mindstorms, ultrasonic sensor, Real-time modeling, 2D object, low-cost robotics systems, sensors, Matlab, EV3 Home Edition Software.

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Authors: Mohammad Lemar Zalmai, Mustafa Nabi Kocakaya, Cemil Akcay, Ekrem Manisali

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In recent years, the Building Information Modeling (BIM) approach has been developed expeditiously. As people see the benefits of this approach, it has begun to be used widely in construction projects and some countries made it mandatory to get more benefits from it. To promote the implementation of BIM in construction projects, it will be helpful to get some relevant information from surveys and interviews. The purpose of this study is to research the current adoption and implementation of BIM in public projects in Turkey. This study specified the challenges of BIM implementation in Turkey and proposed some solutions to overcome them. In this context, the challenges for BIM implementation and the factors that affect the BIM usage are determined based on previous academic researches and expert opinions by conducting interviews and questionnaire surveys. Several methods are used to process information in order to obtain weights of different factors to make BIM widespread in Turkey. This study concluded interviews' and questionnaire surveys' outcomes and proposed some suggestions to promote the implementation of BIM in Turkey. We believe research findings will be a good reference for boosting BIM implementation in Turkey.

Keywords: Building Information Modeling, BIM, BIM implementations, Turkish construction industry, Turkish government sector projects.

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Authors: Rana Abdul Jabbar Khan, Muhammad Akmal

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Personal computers draw non-sinusoidal current with odd harmonics more significantly. Power Quality of distribution networks is severely affected due to the flow of these generated harmonics during the operation of electronic loads. In this paper, mathematical modeling of odd harmonics in current like 3rd, 5th, 7th and 9th influencing the power quality has been presented. Live signals have been captured with the help of power quality analyzer for analysis purpose. The interesting feature is that Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) in current decreases with the increase of nonlinear loads has been verified theoretically. The results obtained using mathematical expressions have been compared with the practical results and exciting results have been found.

Keywords: Harmonic Distortion, Mathematical Modeling, Power Quality.

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Authors: Ankit R Patel, Ankit A Patel, Mahesh A Patel, Dhaval R Vyas

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Although lighting systems powered by Photovoltaic (PV) cells have existed for many years, they are not widely used, especially in lighting for buildings, due to their high initial cost and low conversion efficiency. One of the technical challenges facing PV powered lighting systems has been how to use dc power generated by the PV module to energize common light sources that are designed to operate efficiently under ac power. Usually, the efficiency of the dc light sources is very poor compared to ac light sources. Rapid developments in LED lighting systems have made this technology a potential candidate for PV powered lighting systems. This study analyzed the efficiency of each component of PV powered lighting systems to identify optimum system configurations for different applications.

Keywords: Energy Efficiency, LED, Modeling of systems, Photovoltaic.

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Authors: Ruibiao J. Guo, Brad Cain, Pierre Meunier

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The Integrated Performance Modelling Environment (IPME) is a powerful simulation engine for task simulation and performance analysis. However, it has no high level cognition such as memory and reasoning for complex simulation. This article introduces a knowledge representation and reasoning scheme that can accommodate uncertainty in simulations of military personnel with IPME. This approach demonstrates how advanced reasoning models that support similarity-based associative process, rule-based abstract process, multiple reasoning methods and real-time interaction can be integrated with conventional task network modelling to provide greater functionality and flexibility when modelling operator performance.

Keywords: Computer-Generated Forces, Human Behaviour Representation, IPME, Modelling and Simulation, Uncertainty Reasoning

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Authors: A. Elsayed Ahmed, A. Hafez, A. N. Ouda, H. Eldin Hussein Ahmed, H. Mohamed Abd-Elkader

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Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are playing increasingly prominent roles in defense programs and defense strategies around the world. Technology advancements have enabled the development of it to do many excellent jobs as reconnaissance, surveillance, battle fighters, and communications relays. Simulating a small unmanned aerial vehicle (SUAV) dynamics and analyzing its behavior at the preflight stage is too important and more efficient. The first step in the UAV design is the mathematical modeling of the nonlinear equations of motion. . In this paper, a survey with a standard method to obtain the full non-linear equations of motion is utilized, and then the linearization of the equations according to a steady state flight condition (trimming) is derived. This modeling technique is applied to an Ultrastick-25e fixed wing UAV to obtain the valued linear longitudinal and lateral models. At the end the model is checked by matching between the behavior of the states of the nonlinear UAV and the resulted linear model with doublet at the control surfaces.

Keywords: Equations of motion, linearization, modeling, nonlinear model, UAV.

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Authors: Elizabeth B. Varghese, M. Wilscy

Abstract:

A face recognition system is a computer application for automatically identifying or verifying a person from a digital image or a video frame. A lot of algorithms have been proposed for face recognition. Vector Quantization (VQ) based face recognition is a novel approach for face recognition. Here a new codebook generation for VQ based face recognition using Integrated Adaptive Fuzzy Clustering (IAFC) is proposed. IAFC is a fuzzy neural network which incorporates a fuzzy learning rule into a competitive neural network. The performance of proposed algorithm is demonstrated by using publicly available AT&T database, Yale database, Indian Face database and a small face database, DCSKU database created in our lab. In all the databases the proposed approach got a higher recognition rate than most of the existing methods. In terms of Equal Error Rate (ERR) also the proposed codebook is better than the existing methods.

Keywords: Face Recognition, Vector Quantization, Integrated Adaptive Fuzzy Clustering, Self Organization Map.

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Authors: S. Ariffin, K. Hasnan, R.H. Weston

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A new generation of manufacturing machines so-called MIMCA (modular and integrated machine control architecture) capable of handling much increased complexity in manufacturing control-systems is presented. Requirement for more flexible and effective control systems for manufacturing machine systems is investigated and dimensioned-which highlights a need for improved means of coordinating and monitoring production machinery and equipment used to- transport material. The MIMCA supports simulation based on machine modeling, was conceived by the authors to address the issues. Essentially MIMCA comprises an organized unification of selected architectural frameworks and modeling methods, which include: NISTRCS, UMC and Colored Timed Petri nets (CTPN). The unification has been achieved; to support the design and construction of hierarchical and distributed machine control which realized the concurrent operation of reusable and distributed machine control components; ability to handle growing complexity; and support requirements for real- time control systems. Thus MIMCA enables mapping between 'what a machine should do' and 'how the machine does it' in a well-defined but flexible way designed to facilitate reconfiguration of machine systems.

Keywords: Machine control, architectures, Petri nets, modularity, modeling, simulation.

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Authors: Chau-Kuang Chen, John Hughes, Jr., A. Dexter Samuels

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The prediction models for the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances were constructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approach via linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build robust simulation models to accurately identify the most important predictors and yield the valid range estimations of the Steps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modeling approach was deemed an effective way in predicting student performances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivity analysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models was used to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected by changes in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the study results indicated that the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score were significant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence, institutions could screen qualified student applicants for interviews and document the effectiveness of basic science education program based on the simulation results.

Keywords: Prediction Model, Sensitivity Analysis, Simulation Method, USMLE.

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Authors: M. Mordjaoui, B. Boudjema, M. Chabane, R. Daira

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In determining the electromagnetic properties of magnetic materials, hysteresis modeling is of high importance. Many models are available to investigate those characteristics but they tend to be complex and difficult to implement. In this paper a new qualitative hysteresis model for ferromagnetic core is presented, based on the function approximation capabilities of adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The proposed ANFIS model combined the neural network adaptive capabilities and the fuzzy logic qualitative approach can restored the hysteresis curve with a little RMS error. The model accuracy is good and can be easily adapted to the requirements of the application by extending or reducing the network training set and thus the required amount of measurement data.

Keywords: ANFIS modeling technique, magnetic hysteresis, Jiles-Atherton model, ferromagnetic core.

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Authors: T. H. Fung

Abstract:

Coloured Petri net (CPN) has been widely adopted in various areas in Computer Science, including protocol specification, performance evaluation, distributed systems and coordination in multi-agent systems. It provides a graphical representation of a system and has a strong mathematical foundation for proving various properties. This paper proposes a novel representation of a coloured Petri net using an extension of logic programming called abductive logic programming (ALP), which is purely based on classical logic. Under such a representation, an implementation of a CPN could be directly obtained, in which every inference step could be treated as a kind of equivalence preserved transformation. We would describe how to implement a CPN under such a representation using common meta-programming techniques in Prolog. We call our framework CPN-LP and illustrate its applications in modeling an intelligent agent.

Keywords: Abduction, coloured petri net, intelligent agent, logic programming.

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Authors: A. Bayoumi, M. Abdallah, F. Hage Chehade

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Structures on the ground surface bear impact from the tunneling-induced settlement, especially when twin tunnels are constructed. The tunneling influence on the structure is considered as a critical issue based on the construction procedure and relative position of tunnels. Lebanon is suffering from a traffic phenomenon caused by the lack of transportation systems. After several traffic counts and geotechnical investigations in Beirut city, efforts aim for the construction of tunneling systems. In this paper, we present a non-linear numerical modeling of the effect of the twin tunnels constructions on the structures located at soil surface for a particular site in Beirut. A parametric study, which concerns the geometric configuration of tunnels, the distance between their centers, the construction order, and the position of the structure, is performed. The tunnel-soil-structure interaction is analyzed by using the non-linear finite element modeling software PLAXIS 2D. The results of the surface settlement and the bending moment of the structure reveal significant influence when the structure is moved away, especially in vertical aligned tunnels.

Keywords: Bending moment, construction procedure, elastic modulus, relative position, soil, structure location, surface settlement, twin tunnels.

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Authors: E.V. Butilă, F. Gîrbacia

Abstract:

In order to give high expertise the computer aided design of mechanical systems involves specific activities focused on processing two type of information: knowledge and data. Expert rule based knowledge is generally processing qualitative information and involves searching for proper solutions and their combination into synthetic variant. Data processing is based on computational models and it is supposed to be inter-related with reasoning in the knowledge processing. In this paper an Intelligent Integrated System is proposed, for the objective of choosing the adequate material. The software is developed in Prolog – Flex software and takes into account various constraints that appear in the accurate operation of gears.

Keywords: Expert System, computer aided design, gear boxdesign, chose material, Prolog, Flex

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Authors: Y. K. Chen, K. C. Chiou, C. Y. Chen

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The cumulative conformance count (CCC) charts are widespread in process monitoring of high-yield manufacturing. Recently, it is found the use of variable sampling interval (VSI) scheme could further enhance the efficiency of the standard CCC charts. The average time to signal (ATS) a shift in defect rate has become traditional measure of efficiency of a chart with the VSI scheme. Determining the ATS is frequently a difficult and tedious task. A simple method based on a finite Markov Chain approach for modeling the ATS is developed. In addition, numerical results are given.

Keywords: Cumulative conformance count, variable sampling interval, Markov Chain, average time to signal, control chart.

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Authors: Leonardo A. Ambrosio, Carlos. H. Silva Santos, Ivan E. L. Rodrigues, Ayumi K. de Campos, Leandro A. Machado

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In this work, we propose an algorithm developed under Python language for the modeling of ordinary scalar Bessel beams and their discrete superpositions and subsequent calculation of optical forces exerted over dielectric spherical particles. The mathematical formalism, based on the generalized Lorenz-Mie theory, is implemented in Python for its large number of free mathematical (as SciPy and NumPy), data visualization (Matplotlib and PyJamas) and multiprocessing libraries. We also propose an approach, provided by a synchronized Software as Service (SaaS) in cloud computing, to develop a user interface embedded on a mobile application, thus providing users with the necessary means to easily introduce desired unknowns and parameters and see the graphical outcomes of the simulations right at their mobile devices. Initially proposed as a free Android-based application, such an App enables data post-processing in cloud-based architectures and visualization of results, figures and numerical tables.

Keywords: Bessel Beams and Frozen Waves, Generalized Lorenz-Mie Theory, Numerical Methods, Optical Forces.

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Authors: Soumia Ichoua

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigate the strategic stochastic air traffic flow management problem which seeks to balance airspace capacity and demand under weather disruptions. The goal is to reduce the need for myopic tactical decisions that do not account for probabilistic knowledge about the NAS near-future states. We present and discuss a scenario-based modeling approach based on a time-space stochastic process to depict weather disruption occurrences in the NAS. A solution framework is also proposed along with a distributed implementation aimed at overcoming scalability problems. Issues related to this implementation are also discussed.

Keywords: Air traffic management, sample average approximation, scenario-based approach, stochastic capacity.

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Authors: Amr Abdel Azim Ali, G. A. Elsheikh, Moutaz Hegazy

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This paper presents verification of a modeling and simulation for a Spacecraft (SC) attitude and orbit control system. Detailed formulation of coupled SC orbital and attitude equations of motion is performed in order to achieve accepted accuracy to meet the requirements of multitargets tracking and orbit correction complex modes. Correction of the target parameter based on the estimated state vector during shooting time to enhance pointing accuracy is considered. Time-optimal nonlinear feedback control technique was used in order to take full advantage of the maximum torques that the controller can deliver. This simulation provides options for visualizing SC trajectory and attitude in a 3D environment by including an interface with V-Realm Builder and VR Sink in Simulink/MATLAB. Verification data confirms the simulation results, ensuring that the model and the proposed control law can be used successfully for large and fast tracking and is robust enough to keep the pointing accuracy within the desired limits with considerable uncertainty in inertia and control torque.

Keywords: Attitude and orbit control, time-optimal nonlinear feedback control, modeling and simulation, pointing accuracy, maximum torques.

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Authors: A. Belayadi, A. Mougari, L. Ait-Gougam, F. Mekideche-Chafa

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The artificial neural network is one of the interesting techniques that have been advantageously used to deal with modeling problems. In this study, the computing with artificial neural network (CANN) is proposed. The model is applied to modulate the information processing of one-dimensional task. We aim to integrate a new method which is based on a new coding approach of generating the input-output mapping. The latter is based on increasing the neuron unit in the last layer. Accordingly, to show the efficiency of the approach under study, a comparison is made between the proposed method of generating the input-output set and the conventional method. The results illustrated that the increasing of the neuron units, in the last layer, allows to find the optimal network’s parameters that fit with the mapping data. Moreover, it permits to decrease the training time, during the computation process, which avoids the use of computers with high memory usage.

Keywords: Neural network computing, information processing, input-output mapping, training time, computers with high memory.

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Authors: Ahmed S. Al-Abdulwahab

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Generation system reliability assessment is an important task which can be performed using deterministic or probabilistic techniques. The probabilistic approaches have significant advantages over the deterministic methods. However, more complicated modeling is required by the probabilistic approaches. Power generation model is a basic requirement for this assessment. One form of the generation models is the well known capacity outage probability table (COPT). Different analytical techniques have been used to construct the COPT. These approaches require considerable mathematical modeling of the generating units. The unit-s models are combined to build the COPT which will add more burdens on the process of creating the COPT. Decimal to Binary Conversion (DBC) technique is widely and commonly applied in electronic systems and computing This paper proposes a novel utilization of the DBC to create the COPT without engaging in analytical modeling or time consuming simulations. The simple binary representation , “0 " and “1 " is used to model the states o f generating units. The proposed technique is proven to be an effective approach to build the generation model.

Keywords: Decimal to Binary, generation, reliability.

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