Search results for: system dynamics modelling

Authors: Igor Astrov, Andrus Pedai, Boris Gordon

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This paper focuses on a critical component of the situational awareness (SA), the control of autonomous vertical flight for tactical unmanned aerial vehicle (TUAV). With the SA strategy, we proposed a two stage flight control procedure using two autonomous control subsystems to address the dynamics variation and performance requirement difference in initial and final stages of flight trajectory for an unmanned helicopter model with coaxial rotor and ducted fan configuration. This control strategy for chosen model of TUAV has been verified by simulation of hovering maneuvers using software package Simulink and demonstrated good performance for fast stabilization of engines in hovering, consequently, fast SA with economy in energy can be asserted during search-and-rescue operations.

Keywords: Coaxial rotors, ducted fan, NARMA-L2 neurocontroller, situational awareness, tactical unmanned aerial vehicle.

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Authors: Ruyang Ren, Yaohua Zhao, Yanhua Diao

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In this study, a type of active air cooling thermal management system (TMS) based on U-shaped micro heat pipe array (MHPA) is established for the battery energy storage box which operates in high ambient temperature all the year round. The thermal management performance of the active air cooling TMS based on U-shaped MHPA under different ambient temperatures and different cooling conditions is analyzed by the method of experimental research. Results show that even if the battery energy storage box operates at a high ambient temperature of 45 °C, the active air cooling TMS based on U-shaped MHPA controls not only the maximum temperature of the battery in the battery energy storage box below 55 °C, but also the maximum temperature difference in the battery energy storage box below 5 °C during the whole charge-discharge process. The experimental results provide guidance for the application of the battery energy storage box TMS that operates in high temperature areas.

Keywords: Active air cooling, lithium-ion battery, micro heat pipe array, thermal management system.

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Authors: Sule Simsek

Abstract:

Intrusion detection systems (IDS)are crucial components of the security mechanisms of today-s computer systems. Existing research on intrusion detection has focused on sequential intrusions. However, intrusions can also be formed by concurrent interactions of multiple processes. Some of the intrusions caused by these interactions cannot be detected using sequential intrusion detection methods. Therefore, there is a need for a mechanism that views the distributed system as a whole. L-BIDS (Lattice-Based Intrusion Detection System) is proposed to address this problem. In the L-BIDS framework, a library of intrusions and distributed traces are represented as lattices. Then these lattices are compared in order to detect intrusions in the distributed traces.

Keywords: Attack graph, distributed, edit-distance, misuse detection.

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Authors: Desmond Adair, Kairat Ismailov, Martin Jaeger

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Modelling of Timoshenko beams on elastic foundations has been widely used in the analysis of buildings, geotechnical problems, and, railway and aerospace structures. For the elastic foundation, the most widely used models are one-parameter mechanical models or two-parameter models to include continuity and cohesion of typical foundations, with the two-parameter usually considered the better of the two. Knowledge of free vibration characteristics of beams on an elastic foundation is considered necessary for optimal design solutions in many engineering applications, and in this work, the efficient and accurate variational iteration method is developed and used to calculate natural frequencies of a Timoshenko beam on a two-parameter foundation. The variational iteration method is a technique capable of dealing with some linear and non-linear problems in an easy and efficient way. The calculations are compared with those using a finite-element method and other analytical solutions, and it is shown that the results are accurate and are obtained efficiently. It is found that the effect of the presence of the two-parameter foundation is to increase the beam’s natural frequencies and this is thought to be because of the shear-layer stiffness, which has an effect on the elastic stiffness. By setting the two-parameter model’s stiffness parameter to zero, it is possible to obtain a one-parameter foundation model, and so, comparison between the two foundation models is also made.

Keywords: Timoshenko beam, variational iteration method, two-parameter elastic foundation model.

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Authors: Taiyo Matsumura, Kota Funabashi, Nobumichi Sakai, Takashi Ono

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The purpose of this research is to construct a watching system that monitors human activity in a room and detects abnormalities at an early stage to prevent unattended deaths of people living alone. In this article, we propose a method whereby highly urgent abnormal conditions of a person are determined by changes in the concentration of CO₂ generated from activity and respiration in a room. We also discussed the effects the amount of activity has on the determination. The results showed that this discrimination method is not dependent on the amount of activity and is effective in judging highly urgent abnormal conditions.

Keywords: Abnormal conditions, multiple sensors, people living alone, respiratory arrest, unattended death, watching system.

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Authors: Suby Khanam, Jamshed Siddiqui, Faisal Talib

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Total Quality Management (TQM) is a managerial approach that improves the competitiveness of the industry, meanwhile Information technology (IT) was introduced with TQM for handling the technical issues which is supported by quality experts for fulfilling the customers’ requirement. Present paper aims to utilise AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) methodology to priorities and rank the hierarchy levels of TQM enablers and IT resource together for its successful implementation in the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) industry. A total of 17 TQM enablers (nine) and IT resources (eight) were identified and partitioned into 3 categories and were prioritised by AHP approach. The finding indicates that the 17 sub-criteria can be grouped into three main categories namely organizing, tools and techniques, and culture and people. Further, out of 17 sub-criteria, three sub-criteria: top management commitment and support, total employee involvement, and continuous improvement got highest priority whereas three sub-criteria such as structural equation modelling, culture change, and customer satisfaction got lowest priority. The result suggests a hierarchy model for ICT industry to prioritise the enablers and resources as well as to improve the TQM and IT performance in the ICT industry. This paper has some managerial implication which suggests the managers of ICT industry to implement TQM and IT together in their organizations to get maximum benefits and how to utilize available resources. At the end, conclusions, limitation, future scope of the study are presented.

Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, Information Technology, Information and Communication Technology, Prioritization, Total Quality Management.

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Authors: Chokri Jebali, Noureddine Boulejfen, Ali Gharsallah, Fadhel M. Ghannouchi

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In this paper, a system level behavioural model for RF power amplifier, which exhibits memory effects, and based on multibranch system is proposed. When higher order terms are included, the memory polynomial model (MPM) exhibits numerical instabilities. A set of memory orthogonal polynomial model (OMPM) is introduced to alleviate the numerical instability problem associated to MPM model. A data scaling and centring algorithm was applied to improve the power amplifier modeling accuracy. Simulation results prove that the numerical instability can be greatly reduced, as well as the model precision improved with nonlinear model.

Keywords: power amplifier, orthogonal model, polynomialmodel , memory effects.

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Authors: V. Balanica, W. I. D. Rae, M. Caramihai, S. Acho, C. P. Herbst

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Mammographic images and data analysis to facilitate modelling or computer aided diagnostic (CAD) software development should best be done using a common database that can handle various mammographic image file formats and relate these to other patient information. This would optimize the use of the data as both primary reporting and enhanced information extraction of research data could be performed from the single dataset. One desired improvement is the integration of DICOM file header information into the database, as an efficient and reliable source of supplementary patient information intrinsically available in the images. The purpose of this paper was to design a suitable database to link and integrate different types of image files and gather common information that can be further used for research purposes. An interface was developed for accessing, adding, updating, modifying and extracting data from the common database, enhancing the future possible application of the data in CAD processing. Technically, future developments envisaged include the creation of an advanced search function to selects image files based on descriptor combinations. Results can be further used for specific CAD processing and other research. Design of a user friendly configuration utility for importing of the required fields from the DICOM files must be done.

Keywords: Database Integration, Mammogram Classification, Tumour Classification, Computer Aided Diagnosis.

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Authors: Madiha Tariq, Hena Rabbani

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Recently, cavity-optomechanics becomes an extensive research field that has manipulated the mechanical effects of light for coupling of the optical field with other physical objects specifically with regards to dynamical localization. We investigate the dynamical localization (both in momentum and position space) for a vibrational mirror in a Fabry-Pérot cavity driven by a single mode optical field and a transverse probe field. The weak probe field phenomenon results in classical chaos in phase space and spatio temporal dynamics in position |ψ(x)²| and momentum space |ψ(p)²| versus time show quantum localization in both momentum and position space. Also, we discuss the parametric dependencies of dynamical localization for a designated set of parameters to be experimentally feasible. Our work opens an avenue to manipulate the other optical phenomena and applicability of proposed work can be prolonged to turn-able laser sources in the future.

Keywords: Dynamical localization, cavity optomechanics, hamiltonian chaos, probe field.

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Authors: Cyrille Lambert, Tatiana Kalganova, Emanuele Stomeo, Manissa Wilson

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A multi-board run-time reconfigurable (MRTR) system for evolvable hardware (EHW) is introduced with the aim to implement on hardware the bidirectional incremental evolution (BIE) method. The main features of this digital intrinsic EHW solution rely on the multi-board approach, the variable chromosome length management and the partial configuration of the reconfigurable circuit. These three features provide a high scalability to the solution. The design has been written in VHDL with the concern of not being platform dependant in order to keep a flexibility factor as high as possible. This solution helps tackling the problem of evolving complex task on digital configurable support.

Keywords: Evolvable Hardware, Evolutionary Strategy, multiboardFPGA system.

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Authors: Asrul H. Yaacob, Nazrul M. Ahmad, Nurul N. Ahmad, Mardeni Roslee

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The proliferation of web application and the pervasiveness of mobile technology make web-based attacks even more attractive and even easier to launch. Web Application Firewall (WAF) is an intermediate tool between web server and users that provides comprehensive protection for web application. WAF is a negative security model where the detection and prevention mechanisms are based on predefined or user-defined attack signatures and patterns. However, WAF alone is not adequate to offer best defensive system against web vulnerabilities that are increasing in number and complexity daily. This paper presents a methodology to automatically design a positive security based model which identifies and allows only legitimate web queries. The paper shows a true positive rate of more than 90% can be achieved.

Keywords: Intrusion Detection System, Positive Security Model, Web application Firewall

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Authors: F. O. Faithpraise, J. Idung, C. R. Chatwin, R. C. D. Young, P. Birch

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A continuous time model of the interaction between crop insect pests and naturally beneficial pest enemies is created using a set of simultaneous, non-linear, ordinary differential equations incorporating natural death rates based on the Weibull distribution. The crop pest is present in all its life-cycle stages of: egg, larva, pupa and adult. The beneficial insects, parasitoid wasps, may be present in either or all parasitized: eggs, larva and pupa. Population modelling is used to estimate the quantity of the natural pest enemies that should be introduced into the pest infested environment to suppress the pest population density to an economically acceptable level within a prescribed number of days. The results obtained illustrate the effect of different combinations of parasitoid wasps, using the Pascal distribution to estimate their success in parasitizing different pest developmental stages, to deliver pest control to a sustainable level. Effective control, within a prescribed number of days, is established by the deployment of two or all three species of wasps, which partially destroy pest: egg, larvae and pupae stages. The selected scenarios demonstrate effective sustainable control of the pest in less than thirty days.

Keywords: Biological control, Diamondback moth, Parasitoid wasps, Population modeling.

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Authors: L. Benaaouinate, M. Khafallah, A. Martinez, A. Mesbahi, T. Bouragba

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This paper concerns with the modeling, simulation, and emulation of a wind turbine emulator for standalone wind energy conversion systems. By using emulation system, we aim to reproduce the dynamic behavior of the wind turbine torque on the generator shaft: it provides the testing facilities to optimize generator control strategies in a controlled environment, without reliance on natural resources. The aerodynamic, mechanical, electrical models have been detailed as well as the control of pitch angle using Fuzzy Logic for horizontal axis wind turbines. The wind turbine emulator consists mainly of an induction motor with AC power drive with torque control. The control of the induction motor and the mathematical models of the wind turbine are designed with MATLAB/Simulink environment. The simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the induction motor control system and the functionality of the wind turbine emulator for providing all necessary parameters of the wind turbine system such as wind speed, output torque, power coefficient and tip speed ratio. The findings are of direct practical relevance.

Keywords: Wind turbine, modeling, emulator, electrical generator, renewable energy, induction motor drive, field oriented control, real time control, wind turbine emulator, pitch angle control.

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Authors: Khababa Abdallah, Touahria Mohamed, Frécon Louis

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The school / university orientation interests a broad and often badly informed public. Technically, it is an important multicriterion decision problem, which supposes the combination of much academic professional and/or lawful knowledge, which in turn justifies software resorting to the techniques of Artificial Intelligence. CORUS is an expert system of the "Conseil et ORientation Universitaire et Scolaire", based on a knowledge representation language (KRL) with rules and objects, called/ known as Ibn Rochd. CORUS was developed thanks to DéGSE, a workshop of cognitive engineering which supports this LRC. CORUS works out many acceptable solutions for the case considered, and retains the most satisfactory among them. Several versions of CORUS have extended its services gradually.

Keywords: Kknowledge Engineering, Multicriterion Decision, Knowledge-Based Systems.

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Authors: Cesar H. Ortega Jimenez, Ignacio Eguia Salinas, Pedro Garrido Vega, Jose A. Dominguez Machuca

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The aim of this study is to identify the conditions of implementation for reconfigurability in summarizing past flexible manufacturing systems (FMS) research by drawing overall conclusions from many separate High Performance Manufacturing (HPM) studies. Meta-analysis will be applied to links between HPM programs and their practices related to FMS and manufacturing performance with particular reference to responsiveness performance. More specifically, an application of meta-analysis will be made with reference to two of the main steps towards the development of an empirically-tested theory: testing the adequacy of the measurement of variables and testing the linkages between the variables.

Keywords: FMS (flexible manufacturing system), HPM (highperformance manufacturing), reconfigurability, RMS (reconfigurablemanufacturing system), responsiveness

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Authors: Nidal F. Shilbayeh, Belal AbuHaija, Zainab N. Al-Qudsy

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In this paper, we propose a new robust and secure system that is based on the combination between two different transforms Discrete wavelet Transform (DWT) and Contourlet Transform (CT). The combined transforms will compensate the drawback of using each transform separately. The proposed algorithm has been designed, implemented and tested successfully. The experimental results showed that selecting the best sub-band for embedding from both transforms will improve the imperceptibility and robustness of the new combined algorithm. The evaluated imperceptibility of the combined DWT-CT algorithm which gave a PSNR value 88.11 and the combination DWT-CT algorithm improves robustness since it produced better robust against Gaussian noise attack. In addition to that, the implemented system shored a successful extraction method to extract watermark efficiently.

Keywords: DWT, CT, Digital Image Watermarking, Copyright Protection.

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Authors: Hiroshi Yamakawa, Michiko Yoshida, Motohiro Tsuchiya

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The recent development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) enables new ways of "democratic" decision-making such as a page-ranking system, which estimates the importance of a web page based on indirect trust on that page shared by diverse group of unorganized individuals. These kinds of "democracy" have not been acclaimed yet in the world of real politics. On the other hand, a large amount of data about personal relations including trust, norms of reciprocity, and networks of civic engagement has been accumulated in a computer-readable form by computer systems (e.g., social networking systems). We can use these relations as a new type of social capital to construct a new democratic decision-making system based on a delegation network. In this paper, we propose an effective decision-making support system, which is based on empowering someone's vote whom you trust. For this purpose, we propose two new techniques: the first is for estimating entire vote distribution from a small number of votes, and the second is for estimating active voter choice to promote voting using a delegation network. We show that these techniques could increase the voting ratio and credibility of the whole decision by agent-based simulations.

Keywords: Delegation, network centrality, social network, voting ratio.

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Authors: Hakim T. Kadhim, Faris A. Jabbar, Aldo Rona, Audrius Bagdanaviciu

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Computer-based optimization techniques can be employed to improve the efficiency of energy conversions processes, including reducing the aerodynamic loss in a thermal power plant turbomachine. In this paper, towards mitigating secondary flow losses, a design optimization workflow is implemented for the casing geometry of a 1.5 stage axial flow turbine that improves the turbine isentropic efficiency. The improved turbine is used in an open thermodynamic gas cycle with regeneration and cogeneration. Performance estimates are obtained by the commercial software Cycle – Tempo. Design and off design conditions are considered as well as variations in inlet air temperature. Reductions in both the natural gas specific fuel consumption and in CO₂ emissions are predicted by using the gas turbine cycle fitted with the new casing design. These gains are attractive towards enhancing the competitiveness and reducing the environmental impact of thermal power plant.

Keywords: Axial flow turbine, computational fluid dynamics, gas turbine power plant, optimization.

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Authors: Qidi Lin, Hewei Yu, Jinbin Huang, Weile Liang

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This paper introduces a video sharing platform based on WiFi, which consists of camera, mobile phone and PC server. This platform can receive wireless signal from the camera and show the live video on the mobile phone captured by camera. In addition, it is able to send commands to camera and control the camera’s holder to rotate. The platform can be applied to interactive teaching and dangerous area’s monitoring and so on. Testing results show that the platform can share the live video of mobile phone. Furthermore, if the system’s PC server and the camera and many mobile phones are connected together, it can transfer photos concurrently.

Keywords: Wifi Camera, Socket, Mobile platform, Video monitoring, Remote control.

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Authors: Afef Salhi, Ameni Yengui Jammaoussi

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This paper presents a implementation of an object tracking system in a video sequence. This object tracking is an important task in many vision applications. The main steps in video analysis are two: detection of interesting moving objects and tracking of such objects from frame to frame. In a similar vein, most tracking algorithms use pre-specified methods for preprocessing. In our work, we have implemented several object tracking algorithms (Meanshift, Camshift, Kalman filter) with different preprocessing methods. Then, we have evaluated the performance of these algorithms for different video sequences. The obtained results have shown good performances according to the degree of applicability and evaluation criteria.

Keywords: Tracking, meanshift, camshift, Kalman filter, evaluation.

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Authors: Susmita Das, Kala Praveen Bagadi

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SDMA (Space-Division Multiple Access) is a MIMO (Multiple-Input and Multiple-Output) based wireless communication network architecture which has the potential to significantly increase the spectral efficiency and the system performance. The maximum likelihood (ML) detection provides the optimal performance, but its complexity increases exponentially with the constellation size of modulation and number of users. The QR decomposition (QRD) MUD can be a substitute to ML detection due its low complexity and near optimal performance. The minimum mean-squared-error (MMSE) multiuser detection (MUD) minimises the mean square error (MSE), which may not give guarantee that the BER of the system is also minimum. But the minimum bit error rate (MBER) MUD performs better than the classic MMSE MUD in term of minimum probability of error by directly minimising the BER cost function. Also the MBER MUD is able to support more users than the number of receiving antennas, whereas the rest of MUDs fail in this scenario. In this paper the performance of various MUD techniques is verified for the correlated MIMO channel models based on IEEE 802.16n standard.

Keywords: Multiple input multiple output, multiuser detection, orthogonal frequency division multiplexing, space division multiple access, Bit error rate

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Authors: Jiali Fu

Abstract:

Earthmoving operations are a major part of many construction projects. Because of the complexity and fast-changing environment of such operations, the planning and estimating are crucial on both planning and operational levels. This paper presents the framework ofa microscopic discrete-event simulation system for modeling earthmoving operations and conducting productivity estimations on an operational level.A prototype has been developed to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework, and this simulation system is presented via a case study based on an actual earthmoving project. The case study shows that the proposed simulation model is capable of evaluating alternative operating strategies and resource utilization at a very detailed level.

Keywords: Earthmoving operation, microscopic simulation, discrete-event simulation

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Authors: Kyoung-Jong Park, Woong-Gi Jeon, Hee-Cheol Kim, Dong-Eog Kim, Heung-Kook Choi

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The brain MR imaging-based clinical research and analysis system were specifically built and the development for a large-scale data was targeted. We used the general clinical data available for building large-scale data. Registration period for the selection of the lesion ROI and the region growing algorithm was used and the Mesh-warp algorithm for matching was implemented. The accuracy of the matching errors was modified individually. Also, the large ROI research data can accumulate by our developed compression method. In this way, the correctly decision criteria to the research result was suggested. The experimental groups were age, sex, MR type, patient ID and smoking which can easily be queries. The result data was visualized of the overlapped images by a color table. Its data was calculated by the statistical package. The evaluation for the utilization of this system in the chronic ischemic damage in the area has done from patients with the acute cerebral infarction. This is the cause of neurologic disability index location in the center portion of the lateral ventricle facing. The corona radiate was found in the position. Finally, the system reliability was measured both inter-user and intra-user registering correlation.

Keywords: Software tool design, Cerebral infarction, Brain MR image, Registration

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Authors: M. Sedighizadeh, A. Rezazadeh

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Batteries and fuel cells contain a great potential to back up severe photovoltaic power fluctuations under inclement weather conditions. In this paper comparison between batteries and fuel cells is carried out in detail only for their PV power backup options, so their common attributes and different attributes is discussed. Then, the common and different attributes are compared; accordingly, the fuel cell is selected as the backup of Photovoltaic system. Finally, environmental evaluation of the selected hybrid plant was made in terms of plant-s land requirement and lifetime CO2 emissions, and then compared with that of the conventional fossilfuel power generating forms.

Keywords: Fuel cell, PV cell, hybrid power plant.

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Authors: Markus Kaiser, Johannes Buchmann

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In this article we explore the application of a formal proof system to verification problems in cryptography. Cryptographic properties concerning correctness or security of some cryptographic algorithms are of great interest. Beside some basic lemmata, we explore an implementation of a complex function that is used in cryptography. More precisely, we describe formal properties of this implementation that we computer prove. We describe formalized probability distributions (σ-algebras, probability spaces and conditional probabilities). These are given in the formal language of the formal proof system Isabelle/HOL. Moreover, we computer prove Bayes- Formula. Besides, we describe an application of the presented formalized probability distributions to cryptography. Furthermore, this article shows that computer proofs of complex cryptographic functions are possible by presenting an implementation of the Miller- Rabin primality test that admits formal verification. Our achievements are a step towards computer verification of cryptographic primitives. They describe a basis for computer verification in cryptography. Computer verification can be applied to further problems in cryptographic research, if the corresponding basic mathematical knowledge is available in a database.

Keywords: prime numbers, primality tests, (conditional) probabilitydistributions, formal proof system, higher-order logic, formalverification, Bayes' Formula, Miller-Rabin primality test.

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Authors: Gianluca Cornetta, Abdellah Touhafi, David J. Santos, Jose Manuel Vazquez

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In this work a new platform for mobile-health systems is presented. System target application is providing decision support to rescue corps or military medical personnel in combat areas. Software architecture relies on a distributed client-server system that manages a wireless ad-hoc networks hierarchy in which several different types of client operate. Each client is characterized for different hardware and software requirements. Lower hierarchy levels rely in a network of completely custom devices that store clinical information and patient status and are designed to form an ad-hoc network operating in the 2.4 GHz ISM band and complying with the IEEE 802.15.4 standard (ZigBee). Medical personnel may interact with such devices, that are called MICs (Medical Information Carriers), by means of a PDA (Personal Digital Assistant) or a MDA (Medical Digital Assistant), and transmit the information stored in their local databases as well as issue a service request to the upper hierarchy levels by using IEEE 802.11 a/b/g standard (WiFi). The server acts as a repository that stores both medical evacuation forms and associated events (e.g., a teleconsulting request). All the actors participating in the diagnostic or evacuation process may access asynchronously to such repository and update its content or generate new events. The designed system pretends to optimise and improve information spreading and flow among all the system components with the aim of improving both diagnostic quality and evacuation process.

Keywords: IEEE 802.15.4 (ZigBee), IEEE 802.11 a/b/g (WiFi), distributed client-server systems, embedded databases, issue trackers, ad-hoc networks.

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Authors: Garima Gupta, Daya Gupta

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Virtually all existing networked system management tools use a Manager/Agent paradigm. That is, distributed agents are deployed on managed devices to collect local information and report it back to some management unit. Even those that use standard protocols such as SNMP fall into this model. Using standard protocol has the advantage of interoperability among devices from different vendors. However, it may not be able to provide customized information that is of interest to satisfy specific management needs. In this dissertation work, different approaches are used to collect information regarding the devices attached to a Local Area Network. An SNMP aware application is being developed that will manage the discovery procedure and will be used as data collector.

Keywords: ICMP Scanner, Network Discovery, NetworkManagement, SNMP Scanner.

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev, Dmitry V. Egorov, Viktor M. Denisov

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This paper presents development results of usage of C-OTDR monitoring systems for rail traffic management. The COTDR method is based on vibrosensitive properties of optical fibers. Analysis of Rayleigh backscattering radiation parameters changes which take place due to microscopic seismoacoustic impacts on the optical fiber allows to determine seismoacoustic emission source positions and to identify their types. This approach proved successful for rail traffic management (moving block system, weigh- in-motion system etc.).

Keywords: C-OTDR systems, moving block-sections, rail traffic management, Rayleigh backscattering, weigh-in-motion.

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Authors: Shan Gao

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This paper treats a discrete-time finite buffer batch arrival queue with a single working vacation and partial batch rejection in which the inter-arrival and service times are, respectively, arbitrary and geometrically distributed. The queue is analyzed by using the supplementary variable and the imbedded Markov-chain techniques. We obtain steady-state system length distributions at prearrival, arbitrary and outside observer-s observation epochs. We also present probability generation function (p.g.f.) of actual waiting-time distribution in the system and some performance measures.

Keywords: Discrete-time, finite buffer, single working vacation, batch arrival, partial rejection.

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Authors: W. Y. Wan Fairos, W. H. Wan Azaki, L. Mohamad Alias, Y. Bee Wah

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Dengue fever has become a major concern for health authorities all over the world particularly in the tropical countries. These countries, in particular are experiencing the most worrying outbreak of dengue fever (DF) and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF). The DF and DHF epidemics, thus, have become the main causes of hospital admissions and deaths in Malaysia. This paper, therefore, attempts to examine the environmental factors that may influence the recent dengue outbreak. The aim of this study is twofold, firstly is to establish a statistical model to describe the relationship between the number of dengue cases and a range of explanatory variables and secondly, to identify the lag operator for explanatory variables which affect the dengue incidence the most. The explanatory variables involved include the level of cloud cover, percentage of relative humidity, amount of rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed. The Poisson and Negative Binomial regression analyses were used in this study. The results of the analyses on the 915 observations (daily data taken from July 2006 to Dec 2008), reveal that the climatic factors comprising of daily temperature and wind speed were found to significantly influence the incidence of dengue fever after 2 and 3 weeks of their occurrences. The effect of humidity, on the other hand, appears to be significant only after 2 weeks.

Keywords: Dengue Fever, Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, Negative Binomial Regression model, Poisson Regression model.

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