Search results for: Random effects panel OLS model.

Authors: Wu Qinglong, Zhou Qicai, Xiong Xiaolei, Zhang Richeng

Abstract:

In order to achieve the layout and size optimization of the web members of tower crane boom, a truss topology and cross section size optimization method based on continuum is proposed considering three typical working conditions. Firstly, the optimization model is established by replacing web members with web plates. And the web plates are divided into several sub-domains so that periodic soft kill option (SKO) method can be carried out for topology optimization of the slender boom. After getting the optimized topology of web plates, the optimized layout of web members is formed through extracting the principal stress distribution. Finally, using the web member radius as design variable, the boom compliance as objective and the material volume of the boom as constraint, the cross section size optimization mathematical model is established. The size optimization criterion is deduced from the mathematical model by Lagrange multiplier method and Kuhn-Tucker condition. By comparing the original boom with the optimal boom, it is identified that this optimization method can effectively lighten the boom and improve its performance.

Keywords: Tower crane boom, topology optimization, size optimization, periodic, soft kill option, optimization criterion.

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Authors: Li Hongwei

Abstract:

In this paper, a predator-prey model with time delay and habitat complexity is investigated. By analyzing the characteristic equations, the local stability of each feasible equilibria of the system is discussed and the existence of a Hopf bifurcation at the coexistence equilibrium is established. By choosing the sum of two delays as a bifurcation parameter, we show that Hopf bifurcations can occur as  crosses some critical values. By deriving the equation describing the flow on the center manifold, we can determine the direction of the Hopf bifurcations and the stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the main theoretical results.

Keywords: Predator-prey system, delay, habitat complexity, HOPF bifurcation.

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Authors: Sabrina Gaito, Andrea Greppi, Giuliano Grossi

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In this paper we present a technique to speed up ICA based on the idea of reducing the dimensionality of the data set preserving the quality of the results. In particular we refer to FastICA algorithm which uses the Kurtosis as statistical property to be maximized. By performing a particular Johnson-Lindenstrauss like projection of the data set, we find the minimum dimensionality reduction rate ¤ü, defined as the ratio between the size k of the reduced space and the original one d, which guarantees a narrow confidence interval of such estimator with high confidence level. The derived dimensionality reduction rate depends on a system control parameter β easily computed a priori on the basis of the observations only. Extensive simulations have been done on different sets of real world signals. They show that actually the dimensionality reduction is very high, it preserves the quality of the decomposition and impressively speeds up FastICA. On the other hand, a set of signals, on which the estimated reduction rate is greater than 1, exhibits bad decomposition results if reduced, thus validating the reliability of the parameter β. We are confident that our method will lead to a better approach to real time applications.

Keywords: Independent Component Analysis, FastICA algorithm, Higher-order statistics, Johnson-Lindenstrauss lemma.

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Authors: Z. Sakka, I. Assakkaf, T. Al-Yaqoub, J. Parol

Abstract:

reliability-based methodology for the assessment and evaluation of reinforced concrete (R/C) structural elements of concrete structures is presented herein. The results of the reliability analysis and assessment for R/C structural elements were verified by the results obtained through deterministic methods. The outcomes of the reliability-based analysis were compared against currently adopted safety limits that are incorporated in the reliability indices β’s, according to international standards and codes. The methodology is based on probabilistic analysis using reliability concepts and statistics of the main random variables that are relevant to the subject matter, and for which they are to be used in the performance-function equation(s) associated with the structural elements under study. These methodology techniques can result in reliability index β, which is commonly known as the reliability index or reliability measure value that can be utilized to assess and evaluate the safety, human risk, and functionality of the structural component. Also, these methods can result in revised partial safety factor values for certain target reliability indices that can be used for the purpose of redesigning the R/C elements of the building and in which they could assist in considering some other remedial actions to improve the safety and functionality of the member.

Keywords: Concrete Structures, FORM, Monte Carlo Simulation, Structural Reliability.

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Authors: Zhuomin Zou, Thijs Van Landeghem, Elke Gruyaert

Abstract:

Using supplementary cementitious materials, such as ground granulated blast-furnace slag (GGBFS) and limestone to replace Portland cement (PC) is a promising method to reduce the carbon emissions from cement production. To efficiently use GGBFS and limestone, it is necessary to carefully select the particle size distribution (PSD) of the binders. This study investigated the effects of the PSD of binders on the performance of slag-limestone ternary cement. Based on the PSD parameters of the binders, three types of ternary cements with a similar overall PSD were designed, i.e., No.1 fine GGBFS, medium PC, and coarse limestone; No.2 fine limestone, medium PC, and coarse GGBFS; No.3. fine PC, medium GGBFS, and coarse limestone. The binder contents in the ternary cements were 50% PC, 40% slag, and 10% limestone. The mortar performance of the three ternary cements was investigated in terms of flow table value, strength at 28 days, carbonation resistance and non-steady state chloride migration resistance at 28 days. Results show that ternary cement with fine limestone (No.2) has the weakest performance among the three ternary cements. Ternary cements with fine slag (No.1) show an overall comparable performance to ternary cement with fine PC (No.3). Moreover, the chloride migration coefficient of ternary cements with fine slag (No.1) is significantly lower than the other two ternary cements.

Keywords: Limestone, particle size distribution, slag, ternary cement.

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Authors: C. Alexandru, P. Alexandru

Abstract:

The paper presents the virtual model of the active suspension system used for improving the dynamic behavior of a motor vehicle. The study is focused on the design of the control system, the purpose being to minimize the effect of the road disturbances (which are considered as perturbations for the control system). The analysis is performed for a quarter-car model, which corresponds to the suspension system of the front wheel, by using the DFC (Design for Control) software solution EASY5 (Engineering Analysis Systems) of MSC Software. The controller, which is a PIDbased device, is designed through a parametric optimization with the Matrix Algebra Tool (MAT), considering the gain factors as design variables, while the design objective is to minimize the overshoot of the indicial response.

Keywords: Active suspension, Controller, Dynamics, Vehicle

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Authors: Zdeňka Rendlová

Abstract:

This paper presents the mathematical description of the high-speed rotating system taking into account the influence of internal and external damping. The mathematical model is obtained by using the finite element method. The analyzed system is an automotive turbocharger understood as a rotor-bearing system. The circular cross-section shaft is equipped with one compressor wheel, one turbine wheel and is supported by two floating ring bearings. Based on the model, the dynamical analysis of a turbocharger is performed and stability conditions are evaluated.

Keywords: External damping, internal damping, journal bearing, stability, turbocharger.

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Authors: Mohammad Ali Tabarzad, Caro Lucas, Nassim Jafarzadeh Eslami

Abstract:

After the development of the Internet a suitable discipline for trading goods electronically has been emerged. However, this type of markets is not still mature enough in order to become independent and get closer to seller/buyer-s needs. Furthermore, the buyable and sellable goods in these markets still don-t have essential standards for being well-defined. In this paper, we will present a model for development of a market which can contain goods with variable definitions and we will also investigate its characteristics. Besides, by noticing the fact that people have different discriminations, it-s figured out that the significance of each attribute of a specific product may vary from different people-s view points. Consequently we-ll present a model for weighting and accordingly different people-s view points could be satisfied. These two aspects will be discussed completely throughout this paper.

Keywords: Electronic markets, selection of multi attributegoods, data infusion.

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Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

Abstract:

Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: Cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

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Authors: Ying-Han Pang, Andrew Teoh Beng Jin, David Ngo Chek Ling

Abstract:

A cancelable palmprint authentication system proposed in this paper is specifically designed to overcome the limitations of the contemporary biometric authentication system. In this proposed system, Geometric and pseudo Zernike moments are employed as feature extractors to transform palmprint image into a lower dimensional compact feature representation. Before moment computation, wavelet transform is adopted to decompose palmprint image into lower resolution and dimensional frequency subbands. This reduces the computational load of moment calculation drastically. The generated wavelet-moment based feature representation is used to generate cancelable verification key with a set of random data. This private binary key can be canceled and replaced. Besides that, this key also possesses high data capture offset tolerance, with highly correlated bit strings for intra-class population. This property allows a clear separation of the genuine and imposter populations, as well as zero Equal Error Rate achievement, which is hardly gained in the conventional biometric based authentication system.

Keywords: Cancelable biometric authenticator, Discrete- Hashing, Moments, Palmprint.

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Authors: M. Karimpour, L. Hitihamillage, N. Elkhoury, S. Moridpour, R. Hesami

Abstract:

Rail transport authorities around the world have been facing a significant challenge when predicting rail infrastructure maintenance work for a long period of time. Generally, maintenance monitoring and prediction is conducted manually. With the restrictions in economy, the rail transport authorities are in pursuit of improved modern methods, which can provide precise prediction of rail maintenance time and location. The expectation from such a method is to develop models to minimize the human error that is strongly related to manual prediction. Such models will help them in understanding how the track degradation occurs overtime under the change in different conditions (e.g. rail load, rail type, rail profile). They need a well-structured technique to identify the precise time that rail tracks fail in order to minimize the maintenance cost/time and secure the vehicles. The rail track characteristics that have been collected over the years will be used in developing rail track degradation prediction models. Since these data have been collected in large volumes and the data collection is done both electronically and manually, it is possible to have some errors. Sometimes these errors make it impossible to use them in prediction model development. This is one of the major drawbacks in rail track degradation prediction. An accurate model can play a key role in the estimation of the long-term behavior of rail tracks. Accurate models increase the track safety and decrease the cost of maintenance in long term. In this research, a short review of rail track degradation prediction models has been discussed before estimating rail track degradation for the curve sections of Melbourne tram track system using Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model.

Keywords: ANFIS, MGT, Prediction modeling, rail track degradation.

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Authors: Osa D Egonwa

Abstract:

In the 21^st century, the disciplinary boundaries of past centuries that we often create through mainstream art historical classification, techniques and sources may have been eroded by visual culture, which seems to provide a more inclusive umbrella for the new ways artists go about the creative process and its resultant commodities. Over the past four decades, artists in Africa have resorted to new materials, techniques and themes which have affected our ways of research on these artists and their art. Frontline artists such as El Anatsui, Yinka Shonibare, Erasmus Onyishi are demonstrating that any material is just suitable for artistic expression. Most of times, these materials come with their own techniques/effects and visual syntax: a combination of materials compounds techniques, formal aesthetic indexes, halo effects, and iconography. This tends to challenge the categories and we lean on to view, think and talk about them. This renders our main stream art historical research methods inadequate, thus suggesting new discursive concepts, terms and theories. This paper proposed the Africanist eclectic methods derived from the dual framework of Masquerade Theory and What Comes Behind Six is More Than Seven. This paper shares thoughts/research on art historical methods, terminological re-alignments on classification/source data, presentational format and interpretation arising from the emergent trends in our subject. The outcome provides useful tools to mediate new thoughts and experiences in recent African art and visual culture.

Keywords: Art Historical Methods, Classifications, Concepts , Re-alignment.

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Authors: B. Bakır, İ. Batmaz, F. A. Güntürkün, İ. A. İpekçi, G. Köksal, N. E. Özdemirel

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The main aim of this study is to identify the most influential variables that cause defects on the items produced by a casting company located in Turkey. To this end, one of the items produced by the company with high defective percentage rates is selected. Two approaches-the regression analysis and decision treesare used to model the relationship between process parameters and defect types. Although logistic regression models failed, decision tree model gives meaningful results. Based on these results, it can be claimed that the decision tree approach is a promising technique for determining the most important process variables.

Keywords: Casting industry, decision tree algorithm C5.0, logistic regression, quality improvement.

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Authors: A. K. Al-Othman, F. S. Al-Fares, K. M. EL-Nagger

Abstract:

This paper presents a new optimization technique based on quantum computing principles to solve a security constrained power system economic dispatch problem (SCED). The proposed technique is a population-based algorithm, which uses some quantum computing elements in coding and evolving groups of potential solutions to reach the optimum following a partially directed random approach. The SCED problem is formulated as a constrained optimization problem in a way that insures a secure-economic system operation. Real Coded Quantum-Inspired Evolution Algorithm (RQIEA) is then applied to solve the constrained optimization formulation. Simulation results of the proposed approach are compared with those reported in literature. The outcome is very encouraging and proves that RQIEA is very applicable for solving security constrained power system economic dispatch problem (SCED).

Keywords: State Estimation, Fuzzy Linear Regression, FuzzyLinear State Estimator (FLSE) and Measurements Uncertainty.

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Authors: J.Zouhair, D.Ellison

Abstract:

This paper includes a review of three physics simulation packages that can be used to provide researchers with a virtual ground for modeling, implementing and simulating complex models, as well as testing their control methods with less cost and time of development. The inverted pendulum model was used as a test bed for comparing ODE, DANCE and Webots, while Linear State Feedback was used to control its behavior. The packages were compared with respect to model creation, solving systems of differential equation, data storage, setting system variables, control the experiment and ease of use. The purpose of this paper is to give an overview about our experience with these environments and to demonstrate some of the benefits and drawbacks involved in practice for each package.

Keywords: DANCE, Inverted Pendulum, ODE, Simulation Packages, Webots.

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Authors: Chun-Lang Chang

Abstract:

According to the statistics, the prevalence of congenital hearing loss in Taiwan is approximately six thousandths; furthermore, one thousandths of infants have severe hearing impairment. Hearing ability during infancy has significant impact in the development of children-s oral expressions, language maturity, cognitive performance, education ability and social behaviors in the future. Although most children born with hearing impairment have sensorineural hearing loss, almost every child more or less still retains some residual hearing. If provided with a hearing aid or cochlear implant (a bionic ear) timely in addition to hearing speech training, even severely hearing-impaired children can still learn to talk. On the other hand, those who failed to be diagnosed and thus unable to begin hearing and speech rehabilitations on a timely manner might lose an important opportunity to live a complete and healthy life. Eventually, the lack of hearing and speaking ability will affect the development of both mental and physical functions, intelligence, and social adaptability. Not only will this problem result in an irreparable regret to the hearing-impaired child for the life time, but also create a heavy burden for the family and society. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a set of computer-assisted predictive model that can accurately detect and help diagnose newborn hearing loss so that early interventions can be provided timely to eliminate waste of medical resources. This study uses information from the neonatal database of the case hospital as the subjects, adopting two different analysis methods of using support vector machine (SVM) for model predictions and using logistic regression to conduct factor screening prior to model predictions in SVM to examine the results. The results indicate that prediction accuracy is as high as 96.43% when the factors are screened and selected through logistic regression. Hence, the model constructed in this study will have real help in clinical diagnosis for the physicians and actually beneficial to the early interventions of newborn hearing impairment.

Keywords: Data mining, Hearing impairment, Logistic regression analysis, Support vector machines

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Authors: Chih-Hui Chiu, Chun-Hsien Lin

Abstract:

In this study, a robust intelligent backstepping tracking control (RIBTC) system combined with adaptive output recurrent cerebellar model articulation control (AORCMAC) and H∞ control technique is proposed for wheeled inverted pendulums (WIPs) real-time control with exact system dynamics unknown. Moreover, a robust H∞ controller is designed to attenuate the effect of the residual approximation errors and external disturbances with desired attenuation level. The experimental results indicate that the WIPs can stand upright stably when using the proposed RIBTC.

Keywords: Wheeled inverted pendulum, backsteppingtracking control, H∞ control, adaptive output recurrentcerebellar model articulation control.

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Authors: F. M. Pisano, M. Ciminello

Abstract:

Aerospace, mechanical, and civil engineering infrastructures can take advantages from damage detection and identification strategies in terms of maintenance cost reduction and operational life improvements, as well for safety scopes. The challenge is to detect so called “barely visible impact damage” (BVID), due to low/medium energy impacts, that can progressively compromise the structure integrity. The occurrence of any local change in material properties, that can degrade the structure performance, is to be monitored using so called Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems, in charge of comparing the structure states before and after damage occurs. SHM seeks for any "anomalous" response collected by means of sensor networks and then analyzed using appropriate algorithms. Independently of the specific analysis approach adopted for structural damage detection and localization, textual reports, tables and graphs describing possible outlier coordinates and damage severity are usually provided as artifacts to be elaborated for information extraction about the current health conditions of the structure under investigation. Visual Analytics can support the processing of monitored measurements offering data navigation and exploration tools leveraging the native human capabilities of understanding images faster than texts and tables. Herein, a SHM system enrichment by integration of a Visual Analytics component is investigated. Analytical dashboards have been created by combining worksheets, so that a useful Visual Analytics tool is provided to structural analysts for exploring the structure health conditions examined by a Principal Component Analysis based algorithm.

Keywords: Interactive dashboards, optical fibers, structural health monitoring, visual analytics.

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Authors: Consalva J. Msigwa, Beda J. Kundy, Bakari M. M. Mwinyiwiwa

Abstract:

In this paper the reference current for Voltage Source Converter (VSC) of the Shunt Active Power Filter (SAPF) is generated using Synchronous Reference Frame method, incorporating the PI controller with anti-windup scheme. The proposed method improves the harmonic filtering by compensating the winding up phenomenon caused by the integral term of the PI controller. Using Reference Frame Transformation, the current is transformed from om a - b - c stationery frame to rotating 0 - d - q frame. Using the PI controller, the current in the 0 - d - q frame is controlled to get the desired reference signal. A controller with integral action combined with an actuator that becomes saturated can give some undesirable effects. If the control error is so large that the integrator saturates the actuator, the feedback path becomes ineffective because the actuator will remain saturated even if the process output changes. The integrator being an unstable system may then integrate to a very large value, the phenomenon known as integrator windup. Implementing the integrator anti-windup circuit turns off the integrator action when the actuator saturates, hence improving the performance of the SAPF and dynamically compensating harmonics in the power network. In this paper the system performance is examined with Shunt Active Power Filter simulation model.

Keywords: Phase Locked Loop (PLL), Voltage SourceConverter (VSC), Shunt Active Power Filter (SAPF), PI, Pulse WidthModulation (PWM).

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Authors: Olatinwo M. O., Oyeleke Olaosebikan, David Henry O.

Abstract:

Rain attenuation plays a lot of roles in the design of satellite and terrestrial microwave radio links, hence a good knowledge of its effect is of great interest to Engineers and scientists in that it is often required to give a high level of accuracy of the rainrate distribution that expresses rainrate from the lowest value to the highest. This study proposes a model to express rainrate parameters alpha (α) and beta (β) as a function of geographical location at 0.01% of the time. The tropical locations used in the development of the effect were Ilorin, Ile-Ife, Douala, Dar-es-Selam, Nairobi, Lusaka, and Brazilia.

This expression clearly confirms the variability of rainfall from place to place. When consistency test was carried out using the expression to generate rainrate for each location examined, the result obtained was reliable for rain intensities between 5mm/h and 200mm/h. The variability of α and β with latitude also shows that different latitudes have different cumulative rain distribution. The model proposed in this study would be one of the useful tools to Radio Engineers since the precipitation effect in the design of satellite and terrestrial microwave radio links is among the factors to consider when designing communication systems.

Keywords: Rain rate, attenuation, geographical location.

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Authors: A. Thabet, M. Boutayeb, M. N. Abdelkrim

Abstract:

This paper investigates a method for the state estimation of nonlinear systems described by a class of differential-algebraic equation (DAE) models using the extended Kalman filter. The method involves the use of a transformation from a DAE to ordinary differential equation (ODE). A relevant dynamic power system model using decoupled techniques will be proposed. The estimation technique consists of a state estimator based on the EKF technique as well as the local stability analysis. High performances are illustrated through a simulation study applied on IEEE 13 buses test system.

Keywords: Power system, Dynamic decoupled model, Extended Kalman Filter, Convergence analysis, Time computing.

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Authors: Marius Pislaru, Alexandru F. Trandabat

Abstract:

Environmental studies have expanded dramatically all over the world in the past few years. Nowadays businesses interact with society and the environment in ways that put their mark on both sides. Efforts improving human standard living, through the control of nature and the development of new products, have also resulted in contamination of the environment. Consequently companies play an important role in environmental sustainability of a region or country. Therefore we can say that a company's sustainable development is strictly dependent on the environment. This article presents a fuzzy model to evaluate a company's environmental impact. Article illustrates an example of the automotive industry in order to prove the usefulness of using such a model.

Keywords: fuzzy approach, environmental impact assessment, sustainability

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Authors: G. Kumaravelan, R. Sivakumar

Abstract:

Modeling the behavior of the dialogue management in the design of a spoken dialogue system using statistical methodologies is currently a growing research area. This paper presents a work on developing an adaptive learning approach to optimize dialogue strategy. At the core of our system is a method formalizing dialogue management as a sequential decision making under uncertainty whose underlying probabilistic structure has a Markov Chain. Researchers have mostly focused on model-free algorithms for automating the design of dialogue management using machine learning techniques such as reinforcement learning. But in model-free algorithms there exist a dilemma in engaging the type of exploration versus exploitation. Hence we present a model-based online policy learning algorithm using interconnected learning automata for optimizing dialogue strategy. The proposed algorithm is capable of deriving an optimal policy that prescribes what action should be taken in various states of conversation so as to maximize the expected total reward to attain the goal and incorporates good exploration and exploitation in its updates to improve the naturalness of humancomputer interaction. We test the proposed approach using the most sophisticated evaluation framework PARADISE for accessing to the railway information system.

Keywords: Dialogue management, Learning automata, Reinforcement learning, Spoken dialogue system

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Zina Benouaret, Djamil A¨ıssani

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the performance of the strong stability method of the univariate classical risk model. We interest to the stability bounds established using two approaches. The first based on the strong stability method developed for a general Markov chains. The second approach based on the regenerative processes theory . By adopting an algorithmic procedure, we study the performance of the stability method in the case of exponential distribution claim amounts. After presenting numerically and graphically the stability bounds, an interpretation and comparison of the results have been done.

Keywords: Markov Chain, regenerative processes, risk models, ruin probability, strong stability.

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Authors: Reza Mokhtari Malek Abadi, Mohsen Saghaei, Fatima Iman

Abstract:

This paper investigates the indices of a creative city in Isfahan. Its main aim is to evaluate quantitative status of the creative city indices in Isfahan city, analyze the dispersion and distribution of these indices in Isfahan city. Concerning these, this study tries to analyze the creative city indices in fifteen area of Isfahan through secondary data, questionnaire, TOPSIS model, Shannon entropy and SPSS. Based on this, the fifteen areas of Isfahan city have been ranked with 12 factors of creative city indices. The results of studies show that fifteen areas of Isfahan city are not equally benefiting from creative indices and there is much difference between the areas of Isfahan city.

Keywords: Grading, creative city, creative city evaluation indicators, regional planning model.

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Authors: Bu Seog Ju, Jae Sang Kim, Woo Young Jung

Abstract:

In recent year, with recent increase of interest towards leisure sports, increased number of Zip-Line or Zip-Wire facilities has built. Many researches have been actively conducted on the emphasis of the cable and the wire at the bridge. However, very limited researches have been conducted on the safety of the Zip-Line structure. In fact, fall accidents from Zip-Line have been reported frequently. Therefore, in this study, the structural safety of Zip-Line under dynamic impact loading condition were evaluated on the previously installed steel cable for leisure (Zip-Line), using 3-dimensional nonlinear Finite Element (FE) model. The result from current study would assist assurance of systematic stability of Zip-Line.

Keywords: Zip-Line, Wire, Cable, 3D FE Model, Safety.

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Authors: G. A. Khalid, M. D. Jones, R. Prabhu, A. Mason-Jones, W. Whittington, H. Bakhtiarydavijani, P. S. Theobald

Abstract:

Head injury in childhood is a common cause of death or permanent disability from injury. However, despite its frequency and significance, there is little understanding of how a child’s head responds during injurious loading. Whilst Infant Post Mortem Human Subject (PMHS) experimentation is a logical approach to understand injury biomechanics, it is the authors’ opinion that a lack of subject availability is hindering potential progress. Computer modelling adds great value when considering adult populations; however, its potential remains largely untapped for infant surrogates. The complexities of child growth and development, which result in age dependent changes in anatomy, geometry and physical response characteristics, present new challenges for computational simulation. Further geometric challenges are presented by the intricate infant cranial bones, which are separated by sutures and fontanelles and demonstrate a visible fibre orientation. This study presents an FE model of a newborn infant’s head, developed from high-resolution computer tomography scans, informed by published tissue material properties. To mimic the fibre orientation of immature cranial bone, anisotropic properties were applied to the FE cranial bone model, with elastic moduli representing the bone response both parallel and perpendicular to the fibre orientation. Biofiedility of the computational model was confirmed by global validation against published PMHS data, by replicating experimental impact tests with a series of computational simulations, in terms of head kinematic responses. Numerical results confirm that the FE head model’s mechanical response is in favourable agreement with the PMHS drop test results.

Keywords: Finite element analysis, impact simulation, infant head trauma, material properties, post mortem human subjects.

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Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera, Manuel Ángel Camacho

Abstract:

This paper addresses a cutting edge method of business demand forecasting, based on an empirical probability function when the historical behavior of the data is random. Additionally, it presents error determination based on the numerical method technique ‘propagation of errors.’ The methodology was conducted characterization and process diagnostics demand planning as part of the production management, then new ways to predict its value through techniques of probability and to calculate their mistake investigated, it was tools used numerical methods. All this based on the behavior of the data. This analysis was determined considering the specific business circumstances of a company in the sector of communications, located in the city of Bogota, Colombia. In conclusion, using this application it was possible to obtain the adequate stock of the products required by the company to provide its services, helping the company reduce its service time, increase the client satisfaction rate, reduce stock which has not been in rotation for a long time, code its inventory, and plan reorder points for the replenishment of stock.

Keywords: Demand Forecasting, Empirical Distribution, Propagation of Error.

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Authors: T. Qasim, M. Alqawasmi, M. Hawash, M. Betar, W. Qasim

Abstract:

Over the last decade, the over population that has happened in urban areas has been reflecting on the services that various local institutions provide to car users in the form of car parks, which is becoming a daily necessity in our lives. This study focuses on car parks at Jordan University of Science and Technology, in Irbid, Jordan, to understand the university parking needs. Data regarding arrival and departure times of cars and the parking utilization were collected, to find various options that the university can implement to solve and develop an efficient car parking system. Arena software was used to simulate a parking model. This model allows measuring the different solutions that solve the parking problem at Jordan University of Science and Technology.

Keywords: Car park, modeling, service time, simulation.

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Authors: M. Ahmadi Baseri, R. Mokhtari Malekabadi, A. Gandomkar

Abstract:

Nowadays, one of the most important problems of the metropolises and the world large cities is the habitant traffic difficulty and lack of sufficient parking site for the vehicles. Esfahan city as the third metropolis of Iran has encountered with the vehicles parkingplace problems in the most parts of fourteen regions of the city. The non principled and non systematic dispersal and lack of parking sites in the city has created an unfavorable status for its traffic and has caused the air and sound pollutions increase; in addition, it wastes the most portions of the citizenship and travelers' charge and time in urban pathways and disturbs their mental and psychical calmness, thus leads to their intensive dissatisfaction. In this study, by the usage of AHP model in GIS environment, the effective criteria in selecting the public parking sites have been combined with each other, and the results of the created layers overlapping represent the parking utilitarian vastness and widths. The achieved results of this research indicate the pretty appropriate public parking sites selection in region number 3 of Esfahan; but inconsequential dispersal and lack of these parking sites in this region have caused abundant transportation problems in Esfahan city.

Keywords: Public parking lots, Parking site selection, Geographical Information System (GIS), Hierarchical Analysis Model, Isfahan city.

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