Search results for: quantitative precipitation forecasting.

Authors: Christine O. Wangia, Jennifer A. Orwa, Francis W. Muregi, Patrick G. Kareru, Kipyegon Cheruiyot, Eric Guantai

Abstract:

Ruellia (syn. Dipteracanthus) species are wild perennial creepers belonging to the Acanthaceae family. These species are reported to possess anti-inflammatory, analgesic, antioxidant, gastroprotective, anticancer, and immuno-stimulant properties. Phytochemical screening of both aqueous and methanolic extracts of Ruellia species revealed the presence of saponins. Saponins have been reported to possess anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, immuno-stimulant, antihepatotoxic, antibacterial, anticarcinogenic, and antiulcerogenic activities. The objective of this study was to quantify and analyze the Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectra of saponins in crude extracts of three Kenyan Ruellia species namely Ruellia prostrata (RPM), Ruellia lineari-bracteolata (RLB) and Ruellia bignoniiflora (RBK). Sequential organic extraction of the ground whole plant material was done using petroleum ether (PE), chloroform, ethyl acetate (EtOAc), and absolute methanol by cold maceration, while aqueous extraction was by hot maceration. The plant powders and extracts were mixed with spectroscopic grade KBr and compressed into a pellet. The infrared spectra were recorded using a Shimadzu FTIR spectrophotometer of 8000 series in the range of 3500 cm^-1 - 500 cm^-1. Quantitative determination of the saponins was done using standard procedures. Quantitative analysis of saponins showed that RPM had the highest quantity of crude saponins (2.05% ± 0.03), followed by RLB (1.4% ± 0.15) and RBK (1.25% ± 0.11), respectively. FTIR spectra revealed the spectral peaks characteristic for saponins in RPM, RLB, and RBK plant powders, aqueous and methanol extracts; O-H absorption (3265 - 3393 cm^-1), C-H absorption ranging from 2851 to 2924 cm^-1, C=C absorbance (1628 - 1655 cm^-1), oligosaccharide linkage (C-O-C) absorption due to sapogenins (1036 - 1042 cm^-1). The crude saponins from RPM, RLB and RBK showed similar peaks to their respective extracts. The presence of the saponins in extracts of RPM, RLB and RBK may be responsible for some of the biological activities reported in the Ruellia species.1

Keywords: Ruellia bignoniiflora, Ruellia lineari-bracteolata, Ruellia prostrata, Saponins.

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Authors: Georgi Yordanov Georgiev, Michael Daly, Erin Gombos, Amrit Vinod, Gajinder Hoonjan

Abstract:

Measures of complexity and entropy have not converged to a single quantitative description of levels of organization of complex systems. The need for such a measure is increasingly necessary in all disciplines studying complex systems. To address this problem, starting from the most fundamental principle in Physics, here a new measure for quantity of organization and rate of self-organization in complex systems based on the principle of least (stationary) action is applied to a model system - the central processing unit (CPU) of computers. The quantity of organization for several generations of CPUs shows a double exponential rate of change of organization with time. The exact functional dependence has a fine, S-shaped structure, revealing some of the mechanisms of self-organization. The principle of least action helps to explain the mechanism of increase of organization through quantity accumulation and constraint and curvature minimization with an attractor, the least average sum of actions of all elements and for all motions. This approach can help describe, quantify, measure, manage, design and predict future behavior of complex systems to achieve the highest rates of self organization to improve their quality. It can be applied to other complex systems from Physics, Chemistry, Biology, Ecology, Economics, Cities, network theory and others where complex systems are present.

Keywords: Organization, self-organization, complex system, complexification, quantitative measure, principle of least action, principle of stationary action, attractor, progressive development, acceleration, stochastic.

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Authors: Shih-Ching Lo, Yu-Ping Liao

Abstract:

Social-economic variables influence transportation demand largely. Analyses of discrete choice model consider social-economic variables to study traveler-s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. Also, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, models with different social-economic variables, which are oil price, GDP per capita, CPI and economic growth rate, are compared. From the results, the model with the oil price is better than models with the other social-economic variables.

Keywords: forecasting, passenger volume, dynamic competitive model, social-economic variables, oil price.

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Authors: D. Mirauda, M. Greco, P. Moscarelli

Abstract:

The river flow forecasting represents a crucial point to employ for improving a management policy addressed to the right use of water resources as well as for conjugating prevention and defense actions against environmental degradation. The difficulties occurring during the field activities encourage the development and implementation of operative computation and measuring methods addressed to time reduction for data acquisition and processing maintaining a good level of accuracy. Therefore, the aim of the present work is to test a new entropy based expeditive methodology for the evaluation of the rating curves on three gauged sections with different geometric and morphological characteristics. The methodology requires the choice of only three verticals along the measure section and the sampling of only the maximum velocity. The results underline how in most conditions the rating curves drawn can replace those built with classic methodologies, simplifying thus the procedures of data monitoring and calculation.

Keywords: gauged station, entropic approach, expeditive methodology, rating curves.

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Authors: O. Alizadeh Sahraei, A. Khodadadi, Y. Mortazavi, M. Vesali Naseh, S. Mosadegh

Abstract:

A composite made of plasma functionalized multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) coated with SnO2 was synthesized by sonochemical precipitation method. Thick layer of this nanocomposite material was used as ethanol sensor at low temperatures. The composite sensitivity for ethanol has increased by a factor of 2 at room temperature and by a factor of 13 at 250°C in comparison to that of pure SnO2. SEM image of nanocomposite material showed MWNTs were embedded in SnO2 matrix and also a higher surface area was observed in the presence of functionalized MWNTs. Greatly improved sensitivity of the composite material to ethanol can be attributed to new gas accessing passes through MWNTs and higher specific surface area.

Keywords: Carbon nanotube, Functionalized, Gas sensor, Low temperature, Nanocomposite, Tin oxide.

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Authors: Syeda Maria Ali Shah, Asif Mansoor, Talat Sharafat Rehmani, Safia Mirza

Abstract:

The stock market of any country acts as a predictor of the economy. The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted the global financial markets. Besides, it has also critically affected the economy of Pakistan. In this study, we consider the role of the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) with regard to the Pakistan Stock Exchange and quantify the impact on macroeconomic variables in presence of COVID-19. The suitable macroeconomic variables are used to quantify the impact of COVID-19 by developing the stochastic model. The sufficiency of the computed model is attained by means of available techniques in the literature. The estimated equations are used to forecast the impact of pandemic on macroeconomic variables. The constructed model can help the policymakers take counteractive measures for restricting the influence of viruses on the Karachi Stock Market.

Keywords: COVID-19, Karachi Stock Market, macroeconomic variables, stochastic model, forecasting.

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Authors: M. A. Torkamani, S. Mahmoodzadeh, S. Pourroostaei, C. Lucas

Abstract:

Daily production of information and importance of the sequence of produced data in forecasting future performance of market causes analysis of data behavior to become a problem of analyzing time series. But time series that are very complicated, usually are random and as a result their changes considered being unpredictable. While these series might be products of a deterministic dynamical and nonlinear process (chaotic) and as a result be predictable. Point of Chaotic theory view, complicated systems have only chaotically face and as a result they seem to be unregulated and random, but it is possible that they abide by a specified math formula. In this article, with regard to test of strange attractor and biggest Lyapunov exponent probability of chaos on several foreign exchange rates vs. IRR (Iranian Rial) has been investigated. Results show that data in this market have complex chaotic behavior with big degree of freedom.

Keywords: Chaos, Exchange Rate, Nonlinear Models.

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Authors: Walid K. M. Bani Salameh, Hesham Ahmad, Mohammad Al-Shannag

Abstract:

In Jordan having deficit atmospheric precipitation, an increase in water demand occurs during summer months. Jordan can be regarded with a relatively high potential for wastewater recycling and reuse. The main purpose of this paper was to investigate the removal of total suspended solids (TSS) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) for olive mill wastewater (OMW) by electrocoagulation (EC) process. In the combination of electrocoagulation by using coupled iron–aluminum electrodes, the optimum working pH was found to be around 6. Results indicated that the electrocoagulation process allowed removal of TSS and COD of about 82.5% and 47.5%, respectively at 45 mA/cm2 after 70 minutes by using coupled iron–aluminum electrodes. It was demonstrated that the maximum TSS and COD removals were obtained at some optimum experimental parameters for current density, pH, and reaction time.

Keywords: Olive Mill Wastewater, Electrode, Electrocoagulation (EC), TSS, COD.

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Authors: Li Wu

Abstract:

Plant ecological stoichiometry, which is one of the most important tools to connect the components among different levels of ecosystem, has obtained increasingly extensive concern, especially on its responses to the environmental gradients. Based on the published literatures and datasets, this article focused on reviewing the variable responses of plant foliar ecological stoichiometry to the climatic factors, such as temperature, water, elevated CO₂, and found that foliar ecological stoichiometry responded dynamically to climatic variations among different regions and different growth forms. Then, research status and deficiency were summarized and the expectation on studying the relationships between plant C, N and P ecological stoichiometry and environmental variations which can provide a reference to understand how plants will respond to global change in the future was pointed out.

Keywords: Climatic variations, terrestrial plant, foliar ecological stoichiometry, temperature, precipitation, drought, elevated CO2.

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Authors: O. O. Obe, V. Balanica, E. Neagoe

Abstract:

The effects of hypertension are often lethal thus its early detection and prevention is very important for everybody. In this paper, a neural network (NN) model was developed and trained based on a dataset of hypertension causative parameters in order to forecast the likelihood of occurrence of hypertension in patients. Our research goal was to analyze the potential of the presented NN to predict, for a period of time, the risk of hypertension or the risk of developing this disease for patients that are or not currently hypertensive. The results of the analysis for a given patient can support doctors in taking pro-active measures for averting the occurrence of hypertension such as recommendations regarding the patient behavior in order to lower his hypertension risk. Moreover, the paper envisages a set of three example scenarios in order to determine the age when the patient becomes hypertensive, i.e. determine the threshold for hypertensive age, to analyze what happens if the threshold hypertensive age is set to a certain age and the weight of the patient if being varied, and, to set the ideal weight for the patient and analyze what happens with the threshold of hypertensive age.

Keywords: Neural Network, hypertension, data set, training set, supervised learning.

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Haj Seyed Hadi, Fereshteh Ghanepasand, Mohammad Taghi Darzi

Abstract:

The main objective of this study was to determine the effects of Nitrogen fixing bacteria and manure application on the seed yield and yield components in black cumin (Nigella sativa L.). The experiment was carried out at the RAN Research Station in Firouzkouh in 2012. A 4×4 factorial experiment, arranged in a randomized complete blocks designed with three replications. Nitrogen fixing bacteria at 4 levels (control, Azotobacter, Azospirillum and Azotobacter + Azospirillum) and manure application at 4 levels (0, 2.5, 5 and 7.5 ton ha-1) were used at this investigation. The present results have shown that the highest height, 1000 seeds weight, seed number per follicle, follicle yield, seed yield and harvest index were obtained after using Azotobacter and Azospirillum, simultaneously. Manure application only effects on follicle yield and by 5ton manure ha-1 the highest follicle yield obtained. Results of this investigation showed that the maximum seed yield obtained when Aotobacter+Azospirillum inoculated with black cumin seeds and 5 ton manure ha-1 applied. According to the results of this investigation the integrated management of Azotobacter and Azospirillum with manure application is the best treatment for achieving the maximum quantitative charactersitics of Black cumin.

Keywords: Azotobacter, azospirillum, black cumin, yield, yield components.

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Authors: Amit Kumar, Pushpinder Singh, Parampreet Kaur, Amarpreet Kaur

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Ranking of fuzzy numbers play an important role in decision making, optimization, forecasting etc. Fuzzy numbers must be ranked before an action is taken by a decision maker. In this paper, with the help of several counter examples it is proved that ranking method proposed by Chen and Chen (Expert Systems with Applications 36 (2009) 6833-6842) is incorrect. The main aim of this paper is to propose a new approach for the ranking of generalized trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that the proposed approach provide the correct ordering of generalized and normal trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and also the proposed approach is very simple and easy to apply in the real life problems. It is shown that proposed ranking function satisfies all the reasonable properties of fuzzy quantities proposed by Wang and Kerre (Fuzzy Sets and Systems 118 (2001) 375-385).

Keywords: Ranking function, Generalized trapezoidal fuzzy numbers

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Authors: Ball J., Capanni N., Watt S.

Abstract:

This paper argues that fostering mutual understanding in landscape planning is as much about the planners educating stakeholder groups as the stakeholders educating the planners. In other words it is an epistemological agreement as to the meaning and nature of place, especially where an effort is made to go beyond the quantitative aspects, which can be achieved by the phenomenological experience of the Virtual Reality (VR) environment. This education needs to be a bi-directional process in which distance can be both temporal as well as spatial separation of participants, that there needs to be a common framework of understanding in which neither 'side' is disadvantaged during the process of information exchange and it follows that a medium such as VR offers an effective way of overcoming some of the shortcomings of traditional media by taking advantage of continuing technological advances in Information, Technology and Communications (ITC). In this paper we make particular reference to this as an extension to Geographical Information Systems (GIS). VR as a two-way communication tool offers considerable potential particularly in the area of Public Participation GIS (PPGIS). Information rich virtual environments that can operate over broadband networks are now possible and thus allow for the representation of large amounts of qualitative and quantitative information 'side-by-side'. Therefore, with broadband access becoming standard for households and enterprises alike, distributed virtual reality environments have great potential to contribute to enabling stakeholder participation and mutual learning within the planning context.

Keywords: 3D, communication, geographical information systems, planning, public participation, virtual reality, visualisation.

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Authors: Man Young Kim

Abstract:

Catalytic combustion is generally accepted as an environmentally preferred alternative for the generation of heat and power from fossil fuels mainly due to its advantages related to the stable combustion under very lean conditions with low emissions of NOx, CO, and UHC at temperatures lower than those occurred in conventional flame combustion. Despite these advantages, the commercial application of catalytic combustion has been delayed because of complicated reaction processes and the difficulty in developing appropriate catalysts with the required stability and durability. To develop the catalytic combustors, detailed studies on the combustion characteristics of catalytic combustion should be conducted. To the end, in current research, quantitative studies on the combustion characteristics of the catalytic combustors, with a Pd-based catalyst for MCFC power generation systems, relying on numerical simulations have been conducted. In addition, data from experimental studies of variations in outlet temperatures and fuel conversion, taken after operating conditions have been used to validate the present numerical approach. After introducing the governing equations for mass, momentum, and energy equations as well as a description of catalytic combustion kinetics, the effects of the excess air ratio, space velocity, and inlet gas temperature on the catalytic combustion characteristics are extensively investigated. Quantitative comparisons are also conducted with previous experimental data. Finally, some concluding remarks are presented.

Keywords: Catalytic combustion, Methane, BOP, MCFC power generation system, Inlet temperature, Excess air ratio, Space velocity.

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Authors: Shwe Wut Hmon Aye, Kay Thi Lwin, Waing Waing Kay Khine Oo

Abstract:

As the material used for fuselage structure must possess low density, high strength to weight ratio, the selection of appropriate materials for fuselage structure is one of the most important tasks. Aluminum metal itself is soft and low in strength. It can be made stronger by giving proper combination of suitable alloy addition, mechanical treatment and thermal treatment. The usual thermal treatment given to aluminum alloys is called age-hardening or precipitation hardening. In this paper, the studies are carried out on 7075 aluminum alloy which is how to improve strength level for fuselage structure. The marked effect of the strength on the ternary alloy is clearly demonstrated at several ageing times and temperatures. It is concluded that aluminum-zinc-magnesium alloy can get the highest strength level in natural ageing.

Keywords: Aluminum alloy, ageing, heat treatment, strength.

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Authors: V. Maciuc, Şt. Creangă, I. Gîlcă, V. Ujică

Abstract:

The paper makes part from a complex research project on Romanian Grey Steppe, a unique breed in terms of biological and cultural-historical importance, on the verge of extinction and which has been included in a preservation programme of genetic resources from Romania. The study of genetic polymorphism of protean fractions, especially kappa-casein, and the genotype relations of these lactoproteins with some quantitative and qualitative features of milk yield represents a current theme and a novelty for this breed. In the estimation of the genetic parameters we used R.E.M.L. (Restricted Maximum Likelihood) method. The main lactoprotein from milk, kappa - casein (K-cz), characterized in the specialized literature as a feature having a high degree of hereditary transmission, behaves as such in the nucleus under study, a value also confirmed by the heritability coefficient (h2 = 0.57 %). We must mention the medium values for milk and fat quantity (h2=0.26, 0.29 %) and the fat and protein percentage from milk having a high hereditary influence h2 = 0.71 - 0.63 %. Correlations between kappa-casein and the milk quantity are negative and strong. Between kappa-casein and other qualitative features of milk (fat content 0.58-0.67 % and protein content 0.77- 0.87%), there are positive and very strong correlations. At the same time, between kappa-casein and β casein (β-cz), β lactoglobulin (β- lg) respectively, correlations are positive having high values (0.37 – 0.45 %), indicating the same causes and determining factors for the two groups of features.

Keywords: breed, genetic preservation, lactoproteins, Romanian Grey Steppe

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Authors: Abimbola M. Enitan, John O. Odiyo, Feroz M. Swalaha

Abstract:

The study of microbial ecology and their function in anaerobic digestion processes are essential to control the biological processes. This is to know the symbiotic relationship between the microorganisms that are involved in the conversion of complex organic matter in the industrial wastewater to simple molecules. In this study, diversity and quantity of bacterial community in the granular sludge taken from the different compartments of a full-scale upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactor treating brewery wastewater was investigated using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR). The phylogenetic analysis showed three major eubacteria phyla that belong to Proteobacteria, Firmicutes and Chloroflexi in the full-scale UASB reactor, with different groups populating different compartment. The result of qPCR assay showed high amount of eubacteria with increase in concentration along the reactor’s compartment. This study extends our understanding on the diverse, topological distribution and shifts in concentration of microbial communities in the different compartments of a full-scale UASB reactor treating brewery wastewater. The colonization and the trophic interactions among these microbial populations in reducing and transforming complex organic matter within the UASB reactors were established.

Keywords: Bacteria, brewery wastewater, real-time quantitative PCR, UASB reactor.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this talk, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, Financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model.

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Authors: S. Chokri

Abstract:

Load modeling is one of the central functions in power systems operations. Electricity cannot be stored, which means that for electric utility, the estimate of the future demand is necessary in managing the production and purchasing in an economically reasonable way. A majority of the recently reported approaches are based on neural network. The attraction of the methods lies in the assumption that neural networks are able to learn properties of the load. However, the development of the methods is not finished, and the lack of comparative results on different model variations is a problem. This paper presents a new approach in order to predict the Tunisia daily peak load. The proposed method employs a computational intelligence scheme based on the Fuzzy neural network (FNN) and support vector regression (SVR). Experimental results obtained indicate that our proposed FNN-SVR technique gives significantly good prediction accuracy compared to some classical techniques.

Keywords: Neural network, Load Forecasting, Fuzzy inference, Machine learning, Fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, Support Vector Regression.

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Authors: L. Heidari, M. Jalili Ghazizade

Abstract:

In recent years, different petrochemical complexes have been established to produce aromatic compounds. Among them, Nouri Petrochemical Complex (NPC) is the largest producer of aromatic raw materials in the world, and is located in south of Iran. Environmental concerns have been raised in this region due to generation of different types of solid waste generated in the process of aromatics production, and subsequently, industrial waste characterization has been thoroughly considered. The aim of this study is qualitative and quantitative characterization of industrial waste generated in the aromatics production process and determination of the best method for industrial waste management. For this purpose, all generated industrial waste during the production process was determined using a checklist. Four main industrial wastes were identified as follows: spent industrial soil, spent catalyst, spent molecular sieves and spent N-formyl morpholine (NFM) solvent. The amount of heavy metals and organic compounds in these wastes were further measured in order to identify the nature and toxicity of such a dangerous compound. Then industrial wastes were classified based on lab analysis results as well as using different international lists of hazardous waste identification such as EPA, UNEP and Basel Convention. Finally, the best method of waste disposal is selected based on environmental, economic and technical aspects. 

Keywords: Spent industrial soil, spent molecular sieve, spent normal ¬formyl -morpholine solvent.

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Authors: M. Erol Genevois, D. Celik, H. Z. Ulukan

Abstract:

Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) can be considered among one of the most important service facilities in the banking industry. The investment in ATMs and the impact on the banking industry is growing steadily in every part of the world. The banks take into consideration many factors like safety, convenience, visibility, and cost in order to determine the optimum locations of ATMs. Today, ATMs are not only available in bank branches but also at retail locations. Another important factor is the cash management in ATMs. A cash demand model for every ATM is needed in order to have an efficient cash management system. This forecasting model is based on historical cash demand data which is highly related to the ATMs location. So, the location and the cash management problem should be considered together. This paper provides a general review on studies, efforts and development in ATMs location and cash management problem.

Keywords: ATM location problem, cash management problem, ATM cash replenishment problem, literature review in ATMs.

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Authors: Ahmed Kayad Abdourazak, Abderafi Souad, Zejli Driss, Idriss Abdoulkader Ibrahim

Abstract:

In this paper Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to predict the solar irradiation in Djibouti for the first Time that is useful to the integration of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) and sites selections for new or future solar plants as part of solar energy development. An ANN algorithm was developed to establish a forward/reverse correspondence between the latitude, longitude, altitude and monthly solar irradiation. For this purpose the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) data of eight Djibouti sites were used as training and testing in a standard three layers network with the back propagation algorithm of Lavenber-Marquardt. Results have shown a very good agreement for the solar irradiation prediction in Djibouti and proves that the proposed approach can be well used as an efficient tool for prediction of solar irradiation by providing so helpful information concerning sites selection, design and planning of solar plants.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, solar irradiation, concentrated solar power, Lavenberg-Marquardt.

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Authors: X. Gu, K. L. Blackmore

Abstract:

The impact factor was introduced to measure the quality of journals. Various impact measures exist from multiple bibliographic databases. In this research, we aim to provide a broader understanding of the relationship between scholarly impact and other characteristics of academic journals. Data used for this research were collected from Ulrich’s Periodicals Directory (Ulrichs), Cabell’s (Cabells), and SCImago Journal & Country Rank (SJR) from 1999 to 2015. A master journal dataset was consolidated via Journal Title and ISSN. We adopted a two-step analysis process to study the quantitative relationships between scholarly impact and other journal characteristics. Firstly, we conducted a correlation analysis over the data attributes, with results indicating that there are no correlations between any of the identified journal characteristics. Secondly, we examined the quantitative relationship between scholarly impact and other characteristics using quartile analysis. The results show interesting patterns, including some expected and others less anticipated. Results show that higher quartile journals publish more in both frequency and quantity, and charge more for subscription cost. Top quartile journals also have the lowest acceptance rates. Non-English journals are more likely to be categorized in lower quartiles, which are more likely to stop publishing than higher quartiles. Future work is suggested, which includes analysis of the relationship between scholars and their publications, based on the quartile ranking of journals in which they publish.

Keywords: Academic journal, acceptance rate, impact factor, journal characteristics.

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Authors: A. Bumbová, M. Čáslavský, F. Božek, J. Dvořák, E. Bakoš

Abstract:

The paper presents the case study of hazard identification and sensitivity of potential resource of emergency water supply as part of the application of methodology classifying the resources of drinking water for emergency supply of population. The case study has been carried out on a selected resource of emergency water supply in one region of the Czech Republic. The hazard identification and sensitivity of potential resource of emergency water supply is based on a unique procedure and developed general registers of selected types of hazards and sensitivities. The registers have been developed with the help of the “Fault Tree Analysis” method in combination with the “What if method”. The identified hazards for the assessed resource include hailstorms and torrential rains, drought, soil erosion, accidents of farm machinery, and agricultural production. The developed registers of hazards and vulnerabilities and a semi-quantitative assessment of hazards for individual parts of hydrological structure and technological elements of presented drilled wells are the basis for a semi-quantitative risk assessment of potential resource of emergency supply of population and the subsequent classification of such resource within the system of crisis planning.

Keywords: Hazard identification, register of hazards, sensitivity identification, register of sensitivity, emergency water supply, state of crisis, resource of emergency water supply, ground water.

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Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

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SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: Forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, SIR model.

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Authors: Madina Hamiane, Amina Khunji

Abstract:

Detecting changes in multiple images of the same scene has recently seen increased interest due to the many contemporary applications including smart security systems, smart homes, remote sensing, surveillance, medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, speed and distance measurement, post-disaster forensics and much more. These applications differ in the scale, nature, and speed of change. This paper presents an application of image processing techniques to implement a real-time change detection system. Change is identified by comparing the RGB representation of two consecutive frames captured in real-time. The detection threshold can be controlled to account for various luminance levels. The comparison result is passed through a filter before decision making to reduce false positives, especially at lower luminance conditions. The system is implemented with a MATLAB Graphical User interface with several controls to manage its operation and performance.

Keywords: Image change detection, Image processing, image filtering, thresholding, B/W quantization.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R²) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: Time series modelling, ARIMA model, River runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method.

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Authors: Jerry Szatko, Edan L. Jorgensen, Stacia Jorgensen

Abstract:

A crucial component to the success of any financial advising relationship is for the financial professional to understand the perceptions, preferences and thought-processes carried by the financial clients they serve. Armed with this information, financial professionals are more quickly able to understand how they can tailor their approach to best match the individual preferences and needs of each personal investor. Our research explores the use of a quantitative assessment tool in the financial services industry to assist in the identification of the personal investor’s consumer behaviors, especially in terms of financial risk tolerance, as it relates to their financial decision making. Through this process, the Unitifi Consumer Insight Tool (UCIT) was created and refined to capture and categorize personal investor financial behavioral categories and the financial personality tendencies of individuals prior to the initiation of a financial advisement relationship. This paper discusses the use of this tool to place individuals in one of four behavior-based financial risk tolerance categories. Our discoveries and research were aided through administration of a web-based survey to a group of over 1,000 individuals. Our findings indicate that it is possible to use a quantitative assessment tool to assist in predicting the behavioral tendencies of personal consumers when faced with consumer financial risk and decisions.

Keywords: Behavior based advising, behavioral finance, financial advising, financial advisor tools, financial risk tolerance.

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Authors: Aspasia Koutsokosta, Stefanos Katsavounis

Abstract:

This paper reviews the model-based qualitative and quantitative Operations Management research in the context of Construction Supply Chain Management (CSCM). Construction industry has been traditionally blamed for low productivity, cost and time overruns, waste, high fragmentation and adversarial relationships. The construction industry has been slower than other industries to employ the Supply Chain Management (SCM) concept and develop models that support the decision-making and planning. However the last decade there is a distinct shift from a project-based to a supply-based approach of construction management. CSCM comes up as a new promising management tool of construction operations and improves the performance of construction projects in terms of cost, time and quality. Modeling the Construction Supply Chain (CSC) offers the means to reap the benefits of SCM, make informed decisions and gain competitive advantage. Different modeling approaches and methodologies have been applied in the multi-disciplinary and heterogeneous research field of CSCM. The literature review reveals that a considerable percentage of the CSC modeling research accommodates conceptual or process models which present general management frameworks and do not relate to acknowledged soft Operations Research methods. We particularly focus on the model-based quantitative research and categorize the CSCM models depending on their scope, objectives, modeling approach, solution methods and software used. Although over the last few years there has been clearly an increase of research papers on quantitative CSC models, we identify that the relevant literature is very fragmented with limited applications of simulation, mathematical programming and simulation-based optimization. Most applications are project-specific or study only parts of the supply system. Thus, some complex interdependencies within construction are neglected and the implementation of the integrated supply chain management is hindered. We conclude this paper by giving future research directions and emphasizing the need to develop optimization models for integrated CSCM. We stress that CSC modeling needs a multi-dimensional, system-wide and long-term perspective. Finally, prior applications of SCM to other industries have to be taken into account in order to model CSCs, but not without translating the generic concepts to the context of construction industry.

Keywords: Construction supply chain management, modeling, operations research, optimization and simulation.

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Authors: Hidir S. Nogay

Abstract:

In this study, two systems were created to predict interior temperature in induction motor. One of them consisted of a simple ANN model which has two layers, ten input parameters and one output parameter. The other one consisted of eight ANN models connected each other as cascaded. Cascaded ANN system has 17 inputs. Main reason of cascaded system being used in this study is to accomplish more accurate estimation by increasing inputs in the ANN system. Cascaded ANN system is compared with simple conventional ANN model to prove mentioned advantages. Dataset was obtained from experimental applications. Small part of the dataset was used to obtain more understandable graphs. Number of data is 329. 30% of the data was used for testing and validation. Test data and validation data were determined for each ANN model separately and reliability of each model was tested. As a result of this study, it has been understood that the cascaded ANN system produced more accurate estimates than conventional ANN model.

Keywords: Cascaded neural network, internal temperature, three-phase induction motor, inverter.

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