Search results for: Marginal likelihood evidence.

Authors: U. Datta

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The main objective of this study is to find a suitable approach to monitor the land infrastructure growth over a period of time using multispectral satellite images. Bi-temporal change detection method is unable to indicate the continuous change occurring over a long period of time. To achieve this objective, the approach used here estimates a statistical model from series of multispectral image data over a long period of time, assuming there is no considerable change during that time period and then compare it with the multispectral image data obtained at a later time. The change is estimated pixel-wise. Statistical composite hypothesis technique is used for estimating pixel based change detection in a defined region. The generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) is used to detect the changed pixel from probabilistic estimated model of the corresponding pixel. The changed pixel is detected assuming that the images have been co-registered prior to estimation. To minimize error due to co-registration, 8-neighborhood pixels around the pixel under test are also considered. The multispectral images from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 from 2015 to 2018 are used for this purpose. There are different challenges in this method. First and foremost challenge is to get quite a large number of datasets for multivariate distribution modelling. A large number of images are always discarded due to cloud coverage. Due to imperfect modelling there will be high probability of false alarm. Overall conclusion that can be drawn from this work is that the probabilistic method described in this paper has given some promising results, which need to be pursued further.

Keywords: Co-registration, GLRT, infrastructure growth, multispectral, multitemporal, pixel-based change detection.

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Authors: Aizzat Mohd. Nasurdin, Noor Hazlina Ahmad, Cheng Ling Tan

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This study aims to examine the role of career advancement and job security as predictors of employee commitment to their organization. Data was collected from 580 frontline employees attached to two departments of 29 luxury hotels in Peninsular Malaysia. Statistical results using Partial Least Squares technique provided support for the proposed hypotheses. In view of the findings, theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Keywords: Organizational commitment, career advancement, job security, frontline employees, luxury hotels, Malaysia.

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Authors: Kamaruddin Malik Mohamad, Sapiee Haji Jamel, Mustafa Mat Deris

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Memory forensic is important in digital investigation. The forensic is based on the data stored in physical memory that involve memory management and processing time. However, the current forensic tools do not consider the efficiency in terms of storage management and the processing time. This paper shows the high redundancy of data found in the physical memory that cause inefficiency in processing time and memory management. The experiment is done using Borland C compiler on Windows XP with 512 MB of physical memory.

Keywords: Digital Evidence, Memory Forensics.

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Authors: Dipo Dunsin, Mohamed C. Ghanem, Karim Ouazzane

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Digital investigators often have a hard time spotting evidence in digital information. It has become hard to determine which source of proof relates to a specific investigation. A growing concern is that the various processes, technology, and specific procedures used in the digital investigation are not keeping up with criminal developments. Therefore, criminals are taking advantage of these weaknesses to commit further crimes. In digital forensics investigations, artificial intelligence (AI) is invaluable in identifying crime. Providing objective data and conducting an assessment is the goal of digital forensics and digital investigation, which will assist in developing a plausible theory that can be presented as evidence in court. This research paper aims at developing a multiagent framework for digital investigations using specific intelligent software agents (ISAs). The agents communicate to address particular tasks jointly and keep the same objectives in mind during each task. The rules and knowledge contained within each agent are dependent on the investigation type. A criminal investigation is classified quickly and efficiently using the case-based reasoning (CBR) technique. The proposed framework development is implemented using the Java Agent Development Framework, Eclipse, Postgres repository, and a rule engine for agent reasoning. The proposed framework was tested using the Lone Wolf image files and datasets. Experiments were conducted using various sets of ISAs and VMs. There was a significant reduction in the time taken for the Hash Set Agent to execute. As a result of loading the agents, 5% of the time was lost, as the File Path Agent prescribed deleting 1,510, while the Timeline Agent found multiple executable files. In comparison, the integrity check carried out on the Lone Wolf image file using a digital forensic tool kit took approximately 48 minutes (2,880 ms), whereas the MADIK framework accomplished this in 16 minutes (960 ms). The framework is integrated with Python, allowing for further integration of other digital forensic tools, such as AccessData Forensic Toolkit (FTK), Wireshark, Volatility, and Scapy.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, computer science, criminal investigation, digital forensics.

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Authors: Mohammad Mohammad

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With the exponential progress of technological development comes a strong sense that events are moving too quickly for our schools and that teachers may be losing control of them in the process. This paper examines the impact of e-learning and e-teaching in universities, from both the student and teacher perspective. In particular, it is shown that e-teachers should focus not only on the technical capacities and functions of IT materials and activities, but must attempt to more fully understand how their e-learners perceive the learning environment. From the e-learner perspective, this paper indicates that simply having IT tools available does not automatically translate into all students becoming effective learners. More evidence-based evaluative research is needed to allow e-learning and e-teaching to reach full potential.

Keywords: e-learning, e-teaching, distance learning, education

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Authors: Ana Pauna

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The Expert Witness Testimony in the Battered Woman Syndrome Expert witness testimony (EWT) is a kind of information given by an expert specialized in the field (here in BWS) to the jury in order to help the court better understand the case. EWT does not always work in favor of the battered women. Two main decision-making models are discussed in the paper: the Mathematical model and the Explanation model. In the first model, the jurors calculate ″the importance and strength of each piece of evidence″ whereas in the second model they try to integrate the EWT with the evidence and create a coherent story that would describe the crime. The jury often misunderstands and misjudges battered women for their action (or in this case inaction). They assume that these women are masochists and accept being mistreated for if a man abuses a woman constantly, she should and could divorce him or simply leave at any time. The research in the domain found that indeed, expert witness testimony has a powerful influence on juror’s decisions thus its quality needs to be further explored. One of the important factors that need further studies is a bias called the dispositionist worldview (a belief that what happens to people is of their own doing). This kind of attributional bias represents a tendency to think that a person’s behavior is due to his or her disposition, even when the behavior is clearly attributed to the situation. Hypothesis The hypothesis of this paper is that if a juror has a dispositionist worldview then he or she will blame the rape victim for triggering the assault. The juror would therefore commit the fundamental attribution error and believe that the victim’s disposition caused the rape and not the situation she was in. Methods The subjects in the study were 500 randomly sampled undergraduate students from McGill, Concordia, Université de Montréal and UQAM. Dispositional Worldview was scored on the Dispositionist Worldview Questionnaire. After reading the Rape Scenarios, each student was asked to play the role of a juror and answer a questionnaire consisting of 7 questions about the responsibility, causality and fault of the victim. Results The results confirm the hypothesis which states that if a juror has a dispositionist worldview then he or she will blame the rape victim for triggering the assault. By doing so, the juror commits the fundamental attribution error because he will believe that the victim’s disposition, and not the constraints or opportunities of the situation, caused the rape scenario.

Keywords: bias, expert/witness testimony, attribution error, jury, rape myth

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Authors: Azhar Abdul Rahman

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This paper examines the readability of the chairman’s narratives, as determined by the Flesch score, of a Malaysian public listed company’s corporate reports from 1962 to 2009. It partially supports earlier studies which demonstrated that corporate reports were difficult to read, and had shown very negligible decrease in difficulty over time. Net profit to sales and readability was significantly positively correlated but number of financial statements was significantly negatively correlated with readability.

Keywords: Chairman’s narratives, corporate communications, readability, longitudinal.

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Authors: A. van Onselen, C. M. Walsh, F. J. Veldman, C. Brand

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Objectives: To determine the nutritional status and risk factors associated with women practicing geophagia in QwaQwa, South Africa. Materials and Methods: An observational epidemiological study design was adopted which included an exposed (geophagia) and nonexposed (control) group. A food frequency questionnaire, anthropometric measurements and blood sampling were applied to determine nutritional status of participants. Logistic regression analysis was performed in order to identify factors that were likely to be associated with the practice of geophagia. Results: The mean total energy intake for the geophagia group (G) and control group (C) were 10324.31 ± 2755.00 kJ and 10763.94 ± 2556.30 kJ respectively. Both groups fell within the overweight category according to the mean Body Mass Index (BMI) of each group (G= 25.59 kg/m2; C= 25.14 kg/m2). The mean serum iron levels of the geophagia group (6.929 μmol/l) were significantly lower than that of the control group (13.75 μmol/l) (p = 0.000). Serum transferrin (G=3.23g/l; C=2.7054g/l) and serum transferrin saturation (G=8.05%; C=18.74%) levels also differed significantly between groups (p=0.00). Factors that were associated with the practice of geophagia included haemoglobin (Odds ratio (OR):14.50), serumiron (OR: 9.80), serum-ferritin (OR: 3.75), serum-transferrin (OR: 6.92) and transferrin saturation (OR: 14.50). A significant negative association (p=0.014) was found between women who were wageearners and those who were not wage-earners and the practice of geophagia (OR: 0.143; CI: 0.027; 0.755). These findings seem to indicate that a permanent income may decrease the likelihood of practising geophagia. Key Findings: Geophagia was confirmed to be a risk factor for iron deficiency in this community. The significantly strong association between geophagia and iron deficiency emphasizes the importance of identifying the practice of geophagia in women, especially during their child bearing years.

Keywords: Anaemia, anthropometry, dietary intake, geophagia, iron deficiency.

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Authors: Tamara Kelly

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The past decade has witnessed a good opportunities for city development schemes in UK. The government encouraged restoration of city centers to comprise mixed use developments with high density residential apartments. Investments in regeneration areas were doing well according to the analyses of Property Databank (IPD). However, more recent analysis by IPD has shown that since 2007, property in regeneration areas has been more vulnerable to the market downturn than other types of investment property. The early stages of a property market downturn may be felt most in regeneration where funding, investor confidence and occupier demand would dissipate because the sector was considered more marginal or risky when development costs rise. Moreover, the Bank of England survey shows that lenders have sequentially tightened the availability of credit for commercial real estate since mid-2007. A sharp reduction in the willingness of banks to lend on commercial property was recorded. The credit crunch has already affected commercial property but its impact has been particularly severe in certain kinds of properties where residential developments are extremely difficult, in particular city centre apartments and buy-to-let markets. Commercial property – retail, industrial leisure and mixed use were also pressed, in Birmingham; tens of mixed use plots were built to replace old factories in the heart of the city. The purpose of these developments was to enable young professionals to work and live in same place. Thousands of people lost their jobs during the recession, moreover lending was more difficult and the future of many developments is unknown. The recession casts its shadow upon the society due to cuts in public spending by government, Inflation, rising tuition fees and high rise in unemployment generated anger and hatred was spreading among youth causing vandalism and riots in many cities. Recent riots targeted many mixed used development in the UK where banks, shops, restaurants and big stores were robbed and set into fire leaving residents with horror and shock. This paper examines the impact of the recession and riots on mixed use development in UK.

Keywords: Diversity, mixed use development, outdoor comfort, public realm, safe places, safety by design.

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Authors: Gen Sakoda, Hideki Takayasu, Misako Takayasu

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Waste reduction is a fundamental problem for sustainability. Methods for waste reduction with point-of-sales (POS) data are proposed, utilizing the knowledge of a recent econophysics study on a statistical property of POS data. Concretely, the non-stationary time series analysis method based on the Particle Filter is developed, which considers abnormal fluctuation scaling known as Taylor's law. This method is extended for handling incomplete sales data because of stock-outs by introducing maximum likelihood estimation for censored data. The way for optimal stock determination with pricing the cost of waste reduction is also proposed. This study focuses on the examination of the methods for large sales numbers where Taylor's law is obvious. Numerical analysis using aggregated POS data shows the effectiveness of the methods to reduce food waste maintaining a high profit for large sales numbers. Moreover, the way of pricing the cost of waste reduction reveals that a small profit loss realizes substantial waste reduction, especially in the case that the proportionality constant  of Taylor’s law is small. Specifically, around 1% profit loss realizes half disposal at =0.12, which is the actual  value of processed food items used in this research. The methods provide practical and effective solutions for waste reduction keeping a high profit, especially with large sales numbers.

Keywords: Food waste reduction, particle filter, point of sales, sustainable development goals, Taylor's Law, time series analysis.

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Authors: Sara Tessitore, Tiberio Daddi, Fabio Iraldo

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The article aims to investigate the presence of a correlation between eco-innovation and economic performance within industrial districts. The case analyzed in this article is based on a study concerning a sample of 54 Italian industrial clusters entitled "Eco-Districts" that has compiled a list of the most eco-efficient districts at the national level. After selecting two districts, this study assesses the economic performance of the last three years through the analysis of trends in four indicators. The results show that only in some cases there is a connection between eco innovation and economic performance.

Keywords: clusters, industrial districts, eco-innovation, economic performance.

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Authors: Qiong Huang, Satish Chand

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This paper uses a primary data from 670 Chinese manufacturing firms, together with the newly introduced regressionbased inequality decomposition method, to study the effect of openness on wage inequality. We find that openness leads to a positive industry wage premium, but its contribution to firm-level wage inequality is relatively small, only 4.69%. The major contributor to wage inequality is human capital, which could explain 14.3% of wage inequality across sample firms.  

Keywords: Openness, human capital, wage inequality, decomposition; China.

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Authors: Thomas I. Kounitis

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of a number of variables on the conditional mean and conditional variance of credit spread changes. The empirical analysis in this paper is conducted within the context of bivariate GARCH-in- Mean models, using the so-called BEKK parameterization. We show that credit spread changes are determined by interest-rate and equityreturn variables, which is in line with theory as provided by the structural models of default. We also identify the credit spread change volatility as an important determinant of credit spread changes, and provide evidence on the transmission of volatility between the variables under study.

Keywords: Credit spread changes, GARCH-in-Mean models, structural framework, volatility transmission.

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Authors: H. Naciba, C. Le Bas, C. Mothe, T.U. Nguyen-Thi

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Organizational innovation favors technological innovation, but does it also influence technological innovation persistence? This article investigates empirically the pattern of technological innovation persistence and tests the potential impact of organizational innovation using firm-level data from three waves of the French Community Innovation Surveys. Evidence shows a positive effect of organizational innovation on technological innovation persistence, according to various measures of organizational innovation. Moreover, this impact is more significant for complex innovators (i.e., those who innovate in both products and processes). These results highlight the complexity of managing organizational practices with regard to the firm-s technological innovation. They also add to comprehension of the drivers of innovation persistence, through a focus on an often forgotten dimension of innovation in a broader sense.

Keywords: Organizational Innovation, Technological Innovation, Persistence

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Authors: Michael R. Johnson, Ian P. McCarthy

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There is a growing body of evidence to support the proposition of product take back for remanufacturing particularly within the context of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR). Remanufacturing however presents challenges unlike that of traditional manufacturing environments due to its high levels of uncertainty which may further distract organizations from considering its potential benefits. This paper presents a novel modeling approach for evaluating the uncertainty of part failures within the remanufacturing process and its impact on economic and environmental performance measures. This paper presents both the theoretical modeling approach and an example of its use in application.

Keywords: Remanufacturing, Demanufacturing, Extended Producer Responsibility, Sustainability, Uncertainty.

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Authors: Stephen B. Blumenfeld, Aaron Crawford, Andres G. Victorio

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New Zealand-s product markets experienced a surge in import competition beginning from the late 1970-s when its government began to promote a policy of more open markets. This study considers how the trade liberalization aspect of the policy may have influenced unionization and union-organizing success. For describing the trade liberalization, a model shows how the removal of import tariffs can lead to countervailing influences upon the union membership of a domestic firm. The evidence supports the prediction that union membership has been decreased rather than increased. In the context of debates concerning globalization, it can be said that the power of unions has been diminished.

Keywords: Imports, tariffs, unions, wages.

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Authors: Abeer K. Jameel, Harry Evdorides

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Iraq is a middle income country where the road safety issue is considered one of the leading causes of deaths. To control the road risk issue, the Iraqi Ministry of Planning, General Statistical Organization started to organise a collection system of traffic accidents data with details related to their causes and severity. These data are published as an annual report. In this paper, a review of the available crash data in Iraq will be presented. The available data represent the rate of accidents in aggregated level and classified according to their types, road users’ details, and crash severity, type of vehicles, causes and number of causalities. The review is according to the types of models used in road safety studies and research, and according to the required road safety data in the road constructions tasks. The available data are also compared with the road safety dataset published in the United Kingdom as an example of developed country. It is concluded that the data in Iraq are suitable for descriptive and exploratory models, aggregated level comparison analysis, and evaluation and monitoring the progress of the overall traffic safety performance. However, important traffic safety studies require disaggregated level of data and details related to the factors of the likelihood of traffic crashes. Some studies require spatial geographic details such as the location of the accidents which is essential in ranking the roads according to their level of safety, and name the most dangerous roads in Iraq which requires tactic plan to control this issue. Global Road safety agencies interested in solve this problem in low and middle-income countries have designed road safety assessment methodologies which are basing on the road attributes data only. Therefore, in this research it is recommended to use one of these methodologies.

Keywords: Data availability, Iraq, road safety.

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Authors: Ahmad Aljaafreh

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This paper proposes a hierarchical hidden Markov model (HHMM) to model the detection of M vehicles in a wireless sensor network (WSN). The HHMM model contains an extra level of hidden Markov model to model the temporal transitions of each state of the first HMM. By modeling the temporal transitions, only those hypothesis with nonzero transition probabilities needs to be tested. Thus, this method efficiently reduces the computation load, which is preferable in WSN applications.This paper integrates several techniques to optimize the detection performance. The output of the states of the first HMM is modeled as Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), where the number of states and the number of Gaussians are experimentally determined, while the other parameters are estimated using Expectation Maximization (EM). HHMM is used to model the sequence of the local decisions which are based on multiple hypothesis testing with maximum likelihood approach. The states in the HHMM represent various combinations of vehicles of different types. Due to the statistical advantages of multisensor data fusion, we propose a heuristic based on fuzzy weighted majority voting to enhance cooperative classification of moving vehicles within a region that is monitored by a wireless sensor network. A fuzzy inference system weighs each local decision based on the signal to noise ratio of the acoustic signal for target detection and the signal to noise ratio of the radio signal for sensor communication. The spatial correlation among the observations of neighboring sensor nodes is efficiently utilized as well as the temporal correlation. Simulation results demonstrate the efficiency of this scheme.

Keywords: Classification, decision fusion, fuzzy logic, hidden Markov model

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Authors: Saunah Zainon, Ruhaya Atan, Yap Bee Wah, Zarina Abu Bakar

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The primary objective of this study is to test whether there is any difference in performance between funded and nonfunded registered charity organizations. In this study, performance as the dependent variable is measured using total donations. Using a sample of 101 charity organizations registered with the Registry of Society, analysis of variance (ANOVA) results indicate that there is a difference in financial performance between funded and non-funded charity organizations. The study provides empirical evidence to resource providers and the policy makers in scrutinizing the decision to disburse their funds and resources to these charity organizations.

Keywords: charity organizations, donations, funded, non-funded

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Authors: Janice Haworth, Karamoko Camara, Marie-Therèse Dramou, Kokoly Haba, Daniel Léno, Augustin Mara, Adama Noël Oulari, Silafa Tolno, Noël Zoumanigui

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The traditional rhythms of the West African country of Guinea have played a centuries-long role in defining the different people groups that make up the country. Throughout their history, before and since colonization by the French, the different ethnicities have used their traditional music as a distinct part of their historical identities. That is starting to change. Guinea is an impoverished nation created in the early twentieth-century with little regard for the history and cultures of the people who were included. The traditional rhythms of the different people groups and their heritages have remained. Fifteen individual traditional Guinean rhythms were chosen to represent popular rhythms from the four geographical regions of Guinea. Each rhythm was traced back to its native village and video recorded on-site by as many different local performing groups as could be located. The cyclical patterns rhythms were transcribed via a circular, spatial design and then copied into a box notation system where sounds happening at the same time could be studied. These rhythms were analyzed for their consistency-overperformance in a Fundamental Rhythm Pattern analysis so rhythms could be compared for how they are changing through different performances. The analysis showed that the traditional rhythm performances of the Middle and Forest Guinea regions were the most cohesive and showed the least evidence of change between performances. The role of music in each of these regions is both limited and focused. The Coastal and High Guinea regions have much in common historically through their ethnic history and modern-day trade connections, but the rhythm performances seem to be less consistent and demonstrate more changes in how they are performed today. In each of these regions the role and usage of music is much freer and wide-spread. In spite of advances being made as a country, different ethnic groups still frequently only respond and participate (dance and sing) to the music of their native ethnicity. There is some evidence that this self-imposed musical barrier is beginning to change and evolve, partially through the development of better roads, more access to electricity and technology, the nationwide Ebola health crisis, and a growing self-identification as a unified nation.

Keywords: Cultural identity, Guinea, traditional rhythms, West Africa.

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Authors: S. Carpintero, R. Barcham

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Light rail systems have proliferated in Spain in the last decade, following a tendency that is common not only in other European countries but also in other parts of the world. This paper reviews the benefits of light rail systems, both related to environmental issues and mobility issues. It analyses the evolution of light rail projects in Spain and shows that light rail systems in this country have evolved towards an extensive use of public-private partnerships. The analysis of the Spanish projects, however, does not contribute any conclusive evidence about whether public-private partnerships have been more efficient than publicly owned enterprises in building and operating light rail systems.

Keywords: Light rail systems, public-private partnerships, BOT.

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Authors: Abdel-Samad M. Ali, Ali A. Hadi Al-Shawi

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Discrimination against women and girls impairs progress in all domains of development articulated either in the framework of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) or in the Post-2015 Development Agenda. Paper aspires to create greater awareness among researchers and policy makers of the challenges posed by gender gaps and the opportunities created by reducing them within the Arab region. The study reveals how Arab countries are closing in on gender-oriented targets of the third and fifth MDGs. While some countries can claim remarkable achievements particularly in girls’ equality in education, there is still a long way to go to keep Arab’s commitments to current and future generations in other countries and subregions especially in the economic participation or in the political empowerment of women. No country has closed or even expected to close the economic participation gap or the political empowerment gap. This should provide the incentive to keep moving forward in the Post-2015 Agenda. Findings of the study prove that while Arab states have uneven achievements in reducing maternal mortality, Arab women remain at a disadvantage in the labour market. For Arab region especially LDCs, improving maternal health is part of the unmet agenda for the post-2015 period and still calls for intensified efforts and procedures. While antenatal care coverage is improving across the Arab region, progress is marginal in LDCs. To achieve proper realization of gender equality and empowerment of women in the Arab region in the post-2015 agenda, the study presents critical key challenges to be addressed. These challenges include: Negative cultural norms and stereotypes; violence against women and girls; early marriage and child labour; women’s limited control over their own bodies; limited ability of women to generate their own income and control assets and property; gender-based discrimination in law and in practice; women’s unequal participation in private and public decision making autonomy; and limitations in data. However, in all Arab states, gender equality must be integrated as a goal across all issues, particularly those that affect the future of a country.

Keywords: Gender, equity, millennium development goals, post-2015 development agenda.

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Authors: I. Ionascu, M. Ionascu, D.-A. Calu, L. Olimid

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This paper investigates several factors affecting the cost of capital for listed Romanian companies. Although there is a large amount of literature investigating the drivers of the cost of capital internationally, there is currently little evidence from emergent markets. Based on a sample of 19 Romanian listed companies followed by financial analysts for the years 2008-2010, according to Thomson Reuters- I/B/E/S data base, the paper confirms the international trends, showing that size, corporate governance policies, and growth are negatively correlated with the cost of capital.

Keywords: Corporate governance, determinants of the cost of capital, emergent markets.

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Authors: O. S. Ebrahim, K. O. Shawky, M. A. Badr, P. K. Jain

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This paper describes an efficient; low-cost; high-availability; induction motor (IM) drive system with intelligent supervisory control for water distribution networks including storage tank. To increase the operational efficiency and reduce cost, the IM drive system includes main pumping unit and an auxiliary voltage source inverter (VSI) fed unit. The main unit comprises smart star/delta starter, regenerative fluid clutch, switched VAR compensator, and hysteresis liquid-level controller. Three-state energy saving mode (ESM) is defined at no-load and a logic algorithm is developed for best energetic cost reduction. To reduce voltage sag, the supervisory controller operates the switched VAR compensator upon motor starting. To provide smart star/delta starter at low cost, a method based on current sensing is developed for interlocking, malfunction detection, and life–cycles counting and used to synthesize an improved fuzzy logic (FL) based availability assessment scheme. Furthermore, a recurrent neural network (RNN) full state estimator is proposed to provide sensor fault-tolerant algorithm for the feedback control. The auxiliary unit is working at low flow rates and improves the system efficiency and flexibility for distributed generation during islanding mode. Compared with doubly-fed IM, the proposed one ensures 30% working throughput under main motor/pump fault conditions, higher efficiency, and marginal cost difference. This is critically important in case of water networks. Theoretical analysis, computer simulations, cost study, as well as efficiency evaluation, using timely cascaded energy-conservative systems, are performed on IM experimental setup to demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed drive and control.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, ANN, Availability Assessment, Cloud Computing, Energy Saving, Induction Machine, IM, Supervisory Control, Fuzzy Logic, FL, Pumped Storage.

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Authors: A. Páchová

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Working memory (WM) can be defined as the system which actively holds information in the mind to do tasks in spite of the distraction. Contrary, short-term memory (STM) is a system that represents the capacity for the active storing of information without distraction. There has been accumulating evidence that these types of memory are related to higher cognition (HC). The aim of this study was to verify the relationship between HC and memory (visual STM and WM, auditory STM and WM). 59 primary school children were tested by intelligence test, mathematical tasks (HC) and memory subtests. We have shown that visual but not auditory memory is a significant predictor of higher cognition. The relevance of these results are discussed.

Keywords: higher cognition, long-term memory, short-term memory, working memory

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Authors: M. Ionascu, L. Olimid

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In the last few years, several steps were taken in order to improve the quality of corporate governance for Romanian listed companies. Higher standards of corporate governance is documented in the literature to lead to a better information environment, and, consequently, to increase analysts forecast accuracy. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the extent to which corporate governance policies affect analysts forecasts for companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange. The results showed that there is indeed a negative correlation between a corporate governance index – used as a proxy for the quality of corporate governance practices - and analysts forecast errors.

Keywords: corporate governance, aanalysts' forecasts, information environment

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Authors: Carol Anne Hargreaves

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A key issue in stock investment is how to select representative features for stock selection. The objective of this paper is to firstly determine whether an automated stock investment system, using machine learning techniques, may be used to identify a portfolio of growth stocks that are highly likely to provide returns better than the stock market index. The second objective is to identify the technical features that best characterize whether a stock’s price is likely to go up and to identify the most important factors and their contribution to predicting the likelihood of the stock price going up. Unsupervised machine learning techniques, such as cluster analysis, were applied to the stock data to identify a cluster of stocks that was likely to go up in price – portfolio 1. Next, the principal component analysis technique was used to select stocks that were rated high on component one and component two – portfolio 2. Thirdly, a supervised machine learning technique, the logistic regression method, was used to select stocks with a high probability of their price going up – portfolio 3. The predictive models were validated with metrics such as, sensitivity (recall), specificity and overall accuracy for all models. All accuracy measures were above 70%. All portfolios outperformed the market by more than eight times. The top three stocks were selected for each of the three stock portfolios and traded in the market for one month. After one month the return for each stock portfolio was computed and compared with the stock market index returns. The returns for all three stock portfolios was 23.87% for the principal component analysis stock portfolio, 11.65% for the logistic regression portfolio and 8.88% for the K-means cluster portfolio while the stock market performance was 0.38%. This study confirms that an automated stock investment system using machine learning techniques can identify top performing stock portfolios that outperform the stock market.

Keywords: Machine learning, stock market trading, logistic principal component analysis, automated stock investment system.

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Authors: Renata Martins Pacheco, João Claro

Abstract:

Wildfires are becoming an increasing concern worldwide, causing substantial social, economic, and environmental disruptions. This situation is especially relevant in Mediterranean-climate regions, present in all the five continents of the world, in which fire is not only a natural component of the environment but also perhaps one of the most important evolutionary forces. The rise in wildfire occurrences and their associated impacts suggests the need for identifying knowledge gaps and enhancing the basis of scientific evidence on how managers and policymakers may act effectively to address them. Considering that the main goal of a systematic map is to collate and catalog a body of evidence to describe the state of knowledge for a specific topic, it is a suitable approach to be used for this purpose. In this context, the aim of this study is to systematically map the research trends in wildfire management practices in Mediterranean-climate regions. A total of 201 wildfire management studies were analyzed and systematically mapped in terms of their: Year of publication; Place of study; Scientific outlet; Research area (Web of Science) or Research field (Scopus); Wildfire phase; Central research topic; Main objective of the study; Research methods; and Main conclusions or contributions. The results indicate that there is an increasing number of studies being developed on the topic (most from the last 10 years), but more than half of them are conducted in few Mediterranean countries (60% of the analyzed studies were conducted in Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy or France), and more than 50% are focused on pre-fire issues, such as prevention and fuel management. In contrast, only 12% of the studies focused on “Economic modeling” or “Human factors and issues,” which suggests that the triple bottom line of the sustainability argument (social, environmental, and economic) is not being fully addressed by fire management research. More than one-fourth of the studies had their objective related to testing new approaches in fire or forest management, suggesting that new knowledge is being produced on the field. Nevertheless, the results indicate that most studies (about 84%) employed quantitative research methods, and only 3% of the studies used research methods that tackled social issues or addressed expert and practitioner’s knowledge. Perhaps this lack of multidisciplinary studies is one of the factors hindering more progress from being made in terms of reducing wildfire occurrences and their impacts.

Keywords: Management Mediterranean-climate regions, policy, wildfire.

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Authors: Kulin Dave, Kapil Mohan

Abstract:

Earthquakes are considered to be the most destructive rapid-onset disasters human beings are exposed to. The amount of loss it brings in is sufficient to take careful considerations for designing of structures and facilities. Seismic Hazard Analysis is one such tool which can be used for earthquake resistant design. Ground Response Analysis is one of the most crucial and decisive steps for seismic hazard analysis. Rapar district of Kutch, Gujarat falls in Zone 5 of earthquake zone map of India and thus has high seismicity because of which it is selected for analysis. In total 8 bore-log data were studied at different locations in and around Rapar district. Different soil engineering properties were analyzed and relevant empirical correlations were used to calculate maximum shear modulus (Gmax) and shear wave velocity (Vs) for the soil layers. The soil was modeled using Pressure-Dependent Modified Kodner Zelasko (MKZ) model and the reference curve used for fitting was Seed and Idriss (1970) for sand and Darendeli (2001) for clay. Both Equivalent linear (EL), as well as Non-linear (NL) ground response analysis, has been carried out with Masing Hysteretic Re/Unloading formulation for comparison. Commercially available DEEPSOIL v. 7.0 software is used for this analysis. In this study an attempt is made to quantify ground response regarding generated acceleration time-history at top of the soil column, Response spectra calculation at 5 % damping and Fourier amplitude spectrum calculation. Moreover, the variation of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Maximum Displacement, Maximum Strain (in %), Maximum Stress Ratio, Mobilized Shear Stress with depth is also calculated. From the study, PGA values estimated in rocky strata are nearly same as bedrock motion and marginal amplification is observed in sandy silt and silty clays by both analyses. The NL analysis gives conservative results of maximum displacement as compared to EL analysis. Maximum strain predicted by both studies is very close to each other. And overall NL analysis is more efficient and realistic because it follows the actual hyperbolic stress-strain relationship, considers stiffness degradation and mobilizes stresses generated due to pore water pressure.

Keywords: DEEPSOIL v 7.0, Ground Response Analysis, Pressure-Dependent Modified KodnerZelasko (MKZ) model, Response Spectra, Shear wave velocity.

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Authors: H. M. Nanjundaswamy, S. K. Nath, S. Ray

Abstract:

TiO₂ particles have been added in molten aluminium to result in aluminium based cast Al/Al₃Ti-Al₂O₃ composite, which has been added then to molten magnesium to synthesize magnesium based cast Mg-Al/Al₃Ti-Al₂O₃ composite. The nominal compositions in terms of Mg, Al, and TiO₂ contents in the magnesium based composites are Mg-9Al-0.6TiO₂, Mg-9Al-0.8TiO₂, Mg-9Al-1.0TiO₂ and Mg-9Al-1.2TiO₂ designated respectively as MA6T, MA8T, MA10T and MA12T. The microstructure of the cast magnesium based composite shows grayish rods of intermetallics Al₃Ti, inherited from aluminium based composite but these rods, on hot forging, breaks into smaller lengths decreasing the average aspect ratio (length to diameter) from 7.5 to 3.0. There are also cavities in between the broken segments of rods. β-phase in cast microstructure, Mg₁₇Al₁₂, dissolves during heating prior to forging and re-precipitates as relatively finer particles on cooling. The amount of β-phase also decreases on forging as segregation is removed. In both the cast and forged composite, the Brinell hardness increases rapidly with increasing addition of TiO₂ but the hardness is higher in forged composites by about 80 BHN. With addition of higher level of TiO₂ in magnesium based cast composite, yield strength decreases progressively but there is marginal increase in yield strength over that of the cast Mg-9 wt. pct. Al, designated as MA alloy. But the ultimate tensile strength (UTS) in the cast composites decreases with the increasing particle content indicating possibly an early initiation of crack in the brittle inter-dendritic region and their easy propagation through the interfaces of the particles. In forged composites, there is a significant improvement in both yield strength and UTS with increasing TiO₂ addition and also, over those observed in their cast counterpart, but at higher addition it decreases. It may also be noted that as in forged MA alloy, incomplete recovery of forging strain increases the strength of the matrix in the composites and the ductility decreases both in the forged alloy and the composites. Initiation fracture toughness, J_IC, decreases drastically in cast composites compared to that in MA alloy due to the presence of intermetallic Al₃Ti and Al₂O₃ particles in the composite. There is drastic reduction of J_IC on forging both in the alloy and the composites, possibly due to incomplete recovery of forging strain in both as well as breaking of Al₃Ti rods and the voids between the broken segments of Al₃Ti rods in composites. The ratio of tearing modulus to elastic modulus in cast composites show higher ratio, which increases with the increasing TiO₂ addition. The ratio decreases comparatively more on forging of cast MA alloy than those in forged composites.

Keywords: Composite, fracture toughness, forging, tensile properties.

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