Search results for: graphical decision models

Authors: Walid MOUDANI

Abstract:

The healthcare environment is generally perceived as being information rich yet knowledge poor. However, there is a lack of effective analysis tools to discover hidden relationships and trends in data. In fact, valuable knowledge can be discovered from application of data mining techniques in healthcare system. In this study, a proficient methodology for the extraction of significant patterns from the Coronary Heart Disease warehouses for heart attack prediction, which unfortunately continues to be a leading cause of mortality in the whole world, has been presented. For this purpose, we propose to enumerate dynamically the optimal subsets of the reduced features of high interest by using rough sets technique associated to dynamic programming. Therefore, we propose to validate the classification using Random Forest (RF) decision tree to identify the risky heart disease cases. This work is based on a large amount of data collected from several clinical institutions based on the medical profile of patient. Moreover, the experts- knowledge in this field has been taken into consideration in order to define the disease, its risk factors, and to establish significant knowledge relationships among the medical factors. A computer-aided system is developed for this purpose based on a population of 525 adults. The performance of the proposed model is analyzed and evaluated based on set of benchmark techniques applied in this classification problem.

Keywords: Multi-Classifier Decisions Tree, Features Reduction, Dynamic Programming, Rough Sets.

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Authors: Jerry Szatko, Edan L. Jorgensen, Stacia Jorgensen

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A crucial component to the success of any financial advising relationship is for the financial professional to understand the perceptions, preferences and thought-processes carried by the financial clients they serve. Armed with this information, financial professionals are more quickly able to understand how they can tailor their approach to best match the individual preferences and needs of each personal investor. Our research explores the use of a quantitative assessment tool in the financial services industry to assist in the identification of the personal investor’s consumer behaviors, especially in terms of financial risk tolerance, as it relates to their financial decision making. Through this process, the Unitifi Consumer Insight Tool (UCIT) was created and refined to capture and categorize personal investor financial behavioral categories and the financial personality tendencies of individuals prior to the initiation of a financial advisement relationship. This paper discusses the use of this tool to place individuals in one of four behavior-based financial risk tolerance categories. Our discoveries and research were aided through administration of a web-based survey to a group of over 1,000 individuals. Our findings indicate that it is possible to use a quantitative assessment tool to assist in predicting the behavioral tendencies of personal consumers when faced with consumer financial risk and decisions.

Keywords: Behavior based advising, behavioral finance, financial advising, financial advisor tools, financial risk tolerance.

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Authors: Fatima Z. Cherhabil, Mammar Sedrati, Sonia-Sabrina Bendib‎

Abstract:

In order to support the continued growth, critical latency of ‎IoT ‎applications and ‎various obstacles of traditional data centers, ‎Mobile Edge ‎Computing (MEC) has ‎emerged as a promising solution that extends the cloud data-processing and decision-making to edge devices. ‎By adopting a MEC structure, IoT applications could be executed ‎locally, on ‎an edge server, different fog nodes or distant cloud ‎data centers. However, we are ‎often ‎faced with wanting to optimize conflicting criteria such as ‎minimizing energy ‎consumption of limited local capabilities (in terms of CPU, RAM, storage, bandwidth) of mobile edge ‎devices and trying to ‎keep ‎high performance (reducing ‎response time, increasing throughput and service availability) ‎at the same ‎time‎. Achieving one goal may affect the other making Task Offloading (TO), ‎Resource Allocation (RA) and Service Placement (SP) complex ‎processes. ‎It is a nontrivial multi-objective optimization ‎problem ‎to study the trade-off between conflicting criteria. ‎The paper provides a survey on different TO, SP and RA recent Multi-‎Objective Optimization (MOO) approaches used in edge computing environments, particularly Artificial Intelligent (AI) ones, to satisfy various objectives, constraints and dynamic conditions related to IoT applications‎.

Keywords: Mobile Edge Computing, Multi-Objective Optimization, Artificial Intelligence ‎Approaches, Task Offloading, Resource Allocation, Service Placement‎.

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Authors: Ali Kezmane, Said Boukais, Mohand Hamizi

Abstract:

This paper presents an analytical study on the behavior of reinforced concrete walls with rectangular cross section. Several experiments on such walls have been selected to be studied. Database from various experiments were collected and nominal shear wall strengths have been calculated using formulas, such as those of the ACI (American), NZS (New Zealand), Mexican (NTCC), and Wood and Barda equations. Subsequently, nominal shear wall strengths from the formulas were compared with the ultimate shear wall strengths from the database. These formulas vary substantially in functional form and do not account for all variables that affect the response of walls. There is substantial scatter in the predicted values of ultimate shear strength. Two new semi empirical equations are developed using data from tests of 57 walls for transitions walls and 27 for slender walls with the objective of improving the prediction of peak strength of walls with the most possible accurate.

Keywords: Shear strength, reinforced concrete walls, rectangular walls, shear walls, models.

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Authors: Nurbanu Guzey, S. Jagannathan

Abstract:

Locating Radio Controlled (RC) devices using their unintended emissions has a great interest considering security concerns. Weak nature of these emissions requires near field localization approach since it is hard to detect these signals in far field region of array. Instead of only angle estimation, near field localization also requires range estimation of the source which makes this method more complicated than far field models. Challenges of locating such devices in a near field region and real time environment are analyzed in this paper. An ESPRIT like near field localization scheme is utilized for both angle and range estimation. 1-D search with symmetric subarrays is provided. Two 7 element uniform linear antenna arrays (ULA) are employed for locating RC source. Experiment results of location estimation for one unintended emitting walkie-talkie for different positions are given.

Keywords: Localization, angle of arrival (AoA), range estimation, array signal processing, ESPRIT, uniform linear array (ULA).

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Authors: E. A. Mlybari, M. S. Elbisy, A. H. Alshahri, O. M. Albarakati

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Sea level rise threatens to increase the impact of future  storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. Accurate sea level  change prediction and supplement is an important task in determining  constructions and human activities in coastal and oceanic areas. In  this study, support vector machines (SVM) is proposed to predict  daily tidal levels along the Jeddah Coast, Saudi Arabia. The optimal  parameter values of kernel function are determined using a genetic  algorithm. The SVM results are compared with the field data and  with back propagation (BP). Among the models, the SVM is superior  to BPNN and has better generalization performance.

 

Keywords: Tides, Prediction, Support Vector Machines, Genetic Algorithm, Back-Propagation Neural Network, Risk, Hazards.

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Authors: Ahmed Tawfik, Fausto Giunchiglia, Vincenzo Maltese

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Ontologies provide a common understanding of a specific domain of interest that can be communicated between people and used as background knowledge for automated reasoning in a wide range of applications. In this paper, we address the design of multilingual ontologies following well-defined knowledge engineering methodologies with the support of novel collaborative development approaches. In particular, we present a collaborative platform which allows ontologies to be developed incrementally in multiple languages. This is made possible via an appropriate mapping between language independent concepts and one lexicalization per language (or a lexical gap in case such lexicalization does not exist). The collaborative platform has been designed to support the development of the Universal Knowledge Core, a multilingual ontology currently in English, Italian, Chinese, Mongolian, Hindi and Bangladeshi. Its design follows a workflow-based development methodology that models resources as a set of collaborative objects and assigns customizable workflows to build and maintain each collaborative object in a community driven manner, with extensive support of modern web 2.0 social and collaborative features.

Keywords: Knowledge Diversity, Knowledge Representation, Ontology Development.

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Authors: Bahaa Eltahawy, Mikko Ylihärsilä, Reino Virrankoski, Esko Petäjä

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Sheet metal processing is automated, but the step from product models to the production machine control still requires human intervention. This may cause time consuming bottlenecks in the production process and increase the risk of human errors. In this paper we present a system, which automatically recognizes features from the CAD-model of the sheet metal product. By using these features, the system produces a complete model of the particular sheet metal product. Then the model is used as an input for the sheet metal processing machine. Currently the system is implemented, capable to recognize more than 11 of the most common sheet metal structural features, and the procedure is fully automated. This provides remarkable savings in the production time, and protects against the human errors. This paper presents the developed system architecture, applied algorithms and system software implementation and testing.

Keywords: Feature recognition, automation, sheet metal manufacturing, CAM, CAD.

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Authors: J. Šindler, A. Suleng, T. Jelstad Olsen, P. Bárta

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A subsea hydrocarbon production system can undergo planned and unplanned shutdowns during the life of the field. The thermal FEA is used to simulate the cool down to verify the insulation design of the subsea equipment, but it is also used to derive an acceptable insulation design for the cold spots. The driving factors of subsea analyses require fast responding and accurate models of the equipment cool down. This paper presents cool down analysis carried out by a Krylov subspace reduction method, and compares this approach to the commonly used FEA solvers. The model considered represents a typical component of a subsea production system, a closed valve on a dead leg. The results from the Krylov reduction method exhibits the least error and requires the shortest computational time to reach the solution. These findings make the Krylov model order reduction method very suitable for the above mentioned subsea applications.

Keywords: Model order reduction, Krylov subspace, subsea production system, finite element.

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Authors: Alaa Tag Eldin Mohamed

Abstract:

The environmental, cultural, social, and technological changes have led higher education institutes to question their traditional roles. Many declarations and frameworks highlight the importance of fulfilling social responsibility of higher education institutes. The study aims at developing a framework of university social responsibility and sustainability (USR&S) with focus on South Valley University (SVU) as a case study of Egyptian Universities. The study used meetings with 12 vice deans of community services and environmental affairs on social responsibility and environmental issues. The proposed framework integrates social responsibility with strategic management through the establishment and maintenance of the vision, mission, values, goals and management systems; elaboration of policies; provision of actions; evaluation of services and development of social collaboration with stakeholders to meet current and future needs of the community and environment. The framework links between different stakeholders internally and externally using communication and reporting tools. The results show that SVU integrates social responsibility and sustainability in its strategic plans. It has policies and actions however fragmented and lack of appropriate structure and budgeting. The proposed framework could be valuable for researchers and decision makers of the Egyptian Universities. The study proposed recommendations and highlighted building on the results and conducting future research.

Keywords: Corporate social responsibility (CSR), South Valley University, Sustainable University, university social responsibility and sustainability (USR&S).

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Authors: Bouchmel Mliki, Chaouki Ali, Mohamed Ammar Abbassi

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In this numerical study, natural convection of Cu–water nanofluid in a cavity submitted to different heating modes on its vertical walls is analyzed. Maxwell-Garnetts (MG) and Brinkman models have been utilized for calculating the effective thermal conductivity and dynamic viscosity of nanofluid, respectively. Influences of Rayleigh number (Ra = 10³−10⁶), nanoparticle volume concentration (f = 0-0.04) and Hartmann number (Ha = 0-90) on the flow and heat transfer characteristics have been examined. The results indicate that the Hartmann number influences the heat transfer at Ra = 10⁶ more than other Raleigh numbers, as the least effect is observed at Ra = 10³. Moreover, the results show that the solid volume fraction has a significant influence on heat transfer, depending on the value of Hartmann, heat generation or absorption coefficient and Rayleigh numbers.

Keywords: Heat transfer, linearly/sinusoidally heated, Lattice Boltzmann Method, natural convection, nanofluid.

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Authors: Chiung-Hui Chen

Abstract:

With advancements in science and technology, the concept of the Internet of Things (IoT) has gradually developed. The development of the intelligent environment adds intelligence to objects in the living space by using the IoT. In the smart environment, when multiple users share the living space, if different service requirements from different users arise, then the context-aware system will have conflicting situations for making decisions about providing services. Therefore, the purpose of establishing a communication and negotiation mechanism among objects in the intelligent environment is to resolve those service conflicts among users. This study proposes developing a decision-making methodology that uses “Event Agents” as its core. When the sensor system receives information, it evaluates a user’s current events and conditions; analyses object, location, time, and environmental information; calculates the priority of the object; and provides the user services based on the event. Moreover, when the event is not single but overlaps with another, conflicts arise. This study adopts the “Multiple Events Correlation Matrix” in order to calculate the degree values of incidents and support values for each object. The matrix uses these values as the basis for making inferences for system service, and to further determine appropriate services when there is a conflict.

Keywords: Internet of things, intelligent object, event agents, negotiation mechanism, degree of similarity.

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Authors: Najm Alotaibi

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Human motion capture has become one of the major area of interest in the field of computer vision. Some of the major application areas that have been rapidly evolving include the advanced human interfaces, virtual reality and security/surveillance systems. This study provides a brief overview of the techniques and applications used for the markerless human motion capture, which deals with analyzing the human motion in the form of mathematical formulations. The major contribution of this research is that it classifies the computer vision based techniques of human motion capture based on the taxonomy, and then breaks its down into four systematically different categories of tracking, initialization, pose estimation and recognition. The detailed descriptions and the relationships descriptions are given for the techniques of tracking and pose estimation. The subcategories of each process are further described. Various hypotheses have been used by the researchers in this domain are surveyed and the evolution of these techniques have been explained. It has been concluded in the survey that most researchers have focused on using the mathematical body models for the markerless motion capture.

Keywords: Human Motion Capture, Computer Vision, Vision based, Tracking.

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Authors: Collins C. Chiemeke, I. B. Osazuwa, Ibe S. O., Egwuonwu G. N., Ani C. D., Chii E. C.

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The study area is Zaria, located in the basement complex of northern Nigeria. The rock type forming the major part of the Zaria batholith is granite. This research work was carried out to compare the responses of seismic refraction tomography and resistivity tomography in the same geologic environment and under the same conditions. Hence, the choice of the site that has a visible granitic outcrop that extends across a narrow stream channel and is flanked by unconsolidated overburden, a neutral profile that was covered by plain overburden and a site with thick lateritic cover became necessary. The results of the seismic and resistivity tomography models reveals that seismic velocity and resistivity does not always simultaneously increase with depth, but their responses in any geologic environment are determined by changes in the mechanical and chemical content of the rock types rather than depth.

Keywords: Environment, Resistivity, Response, Seismic, Velocity.

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Authors: Martin Roth, Axel Klarmann, Bogdan Franczyk

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The importance of logistics has changed enormously in the last few decades. While logistics was formerly one of the core functions of most companies, logistics or at least parts of their functions are nowadays outsourced to external logistic service providers in terms of contracts. As a result of this shift new business models like the fourth party logistics provider emerged, which designs, plans and monitors the resulting logistics networks. This new business model and topics such as Synchromodality or Big Data impose new requirements on the underlying IT, which cannot be met with conventional concepts and approaches. In this paper, the challenges of logistics network monitoring are outlined by using a scenario. The most common layers in a logical multilayered architecture for an information system are used to point out the arising challenges for IT. In addition, first appropriate solution approaches are introduced.

 

Keywords: Complex Event Processing, Fourth Party Logistics Service Provider, Logistics monitoring, Synchromodality.

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Authors: Meysam Naeimi, Zili Li, Rolf Dollevoet

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A new small–scale test rig developed for rolling contact fatigue (RCF) investigations in wheel–rail material. This paper presents the scaling strategy of the rig based on dimensional analysis and mechanical modelling. The new experimental rig is indeed a spinning frame structure with multiple wheel components over a fixed rail-track ring, capable of simulating continuous wheelrail contact in a laboratory scale. This paper describes the dimensional design of the rig, to derive its overall scaling strategy and to determine the key elements’ specifications. Finite element (FE) modelling is used to simulate the mechanical behavior of the rig with two sample scale factors of 1/5 and 1/7. The results of FE models are compared with the actual railway system to observe the effectiveness of the chosen scales. The mechanical properties of the components and variables of the system are finally determined through the design process.

Keywords: New test rig, rolling contact fatigue, rail, small scale.

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Authors: Sulata Maharana, B Biswas, Adity Ganguly, Ashok Kumar

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In this paper, the requirement for Coke quality prediction, its role in Blast furnaces, and the model output is explained. By applying method of Artificial Neural Networking (ANN) using back propagation (BP) algorithm, prediction model has been developed to predict CSR. Important blast furnace functions such as permeability, heat exchanging, melting, and reducing capacity are mostly connected to coke quality. Coke quality is further dependent upon coal characterization and coke making process parameters. The ANN model developed is a useful tool for process experts to adjust the control parameters in case of coke quality deviations. The model also makes it possible to predict CSR for new coal blends which are yet to be used in Coke Plant. Input data to the model was structured into 3 modules, for tenure of past 2 years and the incremental models thus developed assists in identifying the group causing the deviation of CSR.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, backpropagation, CokeStrength after Reaction, Multilayer Perceptron.

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Authors: Erika Martinez Ramirez, Rene V. Mayorga

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In our modern world, more physical transactions are being substituted by electronic transactions (i.e. banking, shopping, and payments), many businesses and companies are performing most of their operations through the internet. Instead of having a physical commerce, internet visitors are now adapting to electronic commerce (e-Commerce). The ability of web users to reach products worldwide can be greatly benefited by creating friendly and personalized online business portals. Internet visitors will return to a particular website when they can find the information they need or want easily. Dealing with this human conceptualization brings the incorporation of Artificial/Computational Intelligence techniques in the creation of customized portals. From these techniques, Fuzzy-Set technologies can make many useful contributions to the development of such a human-centered endeavor as e-Commerce. The main objective of this paper is the implementation of a Paradigm for the Intelligent Design and Operation of Human-Computer interfaces. In particular, the paradigm is quite appropriate for the intelligent design and operation of software modules that display information (such Web Pages, graphic user interfaces GUIs, Multimedia modules) on a computer screen. The human conceptualization of the user personal information is analyzed throughout a Cascaded Fuzzy Inference (decision-making) System to generate the User Ascribe Qualities, which identify the user and that can be used to customize portals with proper Web links.

Keywords: Fuzzy Logic, Internet, Electronic Commerce, Intelligent Portals, Electronic Shopping.

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Authors: M. Vogiatzis, K. Perakis

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Spatial-explicit and up-to-date land use/land cover information is fundamental for spatial planning, land management, sustainable development, and sound decision-making. In the last decade, many satellite-derived land cover products at different spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions have been developed, such as the European Copernicus Land Cover product. However, more efficient and detailed information for land use/land cover is required at the regional or local scale. A typical Mediterranean basin with a complex landscape comprised of various forest types, crops, artificial surfaces, and wetlands was selected to test and develop our approach. In this study, we investigate the improvement of Copernicus Land Cover product (CLC2018) using Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 pixel-based classification based on all available existing geospatial data (Forest Maps, LPIS, Natura2000 habitats, cadastral parcels, etc.). We examined and compared the performance of the Random Forest classifier for land use/land cover mapping. In total, 10 land use/land cover categories were recognized in Landsat 8 and 11 in Sentinel-2A. A comparison of the overall classification accuracies for 2018 shows that Landsat 8 classification accuracy was slightly higher than Sentinel-2A (82,99% vs. 80,30%). We concluded that the main land use/land cover types of CLC2018, even within a heterogeneous area, can be successfully mapped and updated according to CLC nomenclature. Future research should be oriented toward integrating spatiotemporal information from seasonal bands and spectral indexes in the classification process.

Keywords: land use/land cover, random forest, Landsat-8 OLI, Sentinel-2A MSI, Corine land cover

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Authors: Rıza Gürhan Korkut, Metin Çelik, Süleyman Özkaynak

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The early-stage design and development projects for the freight village initiatives require a comprehensive analysis of both qualitative and quantitative data. Considering the literature review on structural and operational management requirements, this study proposed an original taxonomy on criterion structure to assess freight village conceptualization. The potential challenges and uncertainties of the developed taxonomy are extended. Besides requirement analysis, this study is also expected to contribute to forthcoming research on benchmarking of freight villages in different regions. The methodology used in this research is a systematic review on several articles as per their modelling approaches, sustainability, entities and decisions made together with the uncertainties and features of their models taken into consideration. The major findings of the study that are the categories for assessing the projects attributes on their environmental, socio-economical, accessibility and location aspects.

Keywords: Freight village, logistics centers, operational management, taxonomy.

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Authors: Pucheng Zhou, Bingrong Hong

Abstract:

How to coordinate the behaviors of the agents through learning is a challenging problem within multi-agent domains. Because of its complexity, recent work has focused on how coordinated strategies can be learned. Here we are interested in using reinforcement learning techniques to learn the coordinated actions of a group of agents, without requiring explicit communication among them. However, traditional reinforcement learning methods are based on the assumption that the environment can be modeled as Markov Decision Process, which usually cannot be satisfied when multiple agents coexist in the same environment. Moreover, to effectively coordinate each agent-s behavior so as to achieve the goal, it-s necessary to augment the state of each agent with the information about other existing agents. Whereas, as the number of agents in a multiagent environment increases, the state space of each agent grows exponentially, which will cause the combinational explosion problem. Profit sharing is one of the reinforcement learning methods that allow agents to learn effective behaviors from their experiences even within non-Markovian environments. In this paper, to remedy the drawback of the original profit sharing approach that needs much memory to store each state-action pair during the learning process, we firstly address a kind of on-line rational profit sharing algorithm. Then, we integrate the advantages of modular learning architecture with on-line rational profit sharing algorithm, and propose a new modular reinforcement learning model. The effectiveness of the technique is demonstrated using the pursuit problem.

Keywords: Multi-agent learning; reinforcement learning; rationalprofit sharing; modular architecture.

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Authors: Revanth Sai Kosaraju, Michael Ramscar, Melody Dye

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Accounts of language acquisition differ significantly in their treatment of the role of prediction in language learning. In particular, nativist accounts posit that probabilistic learning about words and word sequences has little to do with how children come to use language. The accuracy of this claim was examined by testing whether distributional probabilities and frequency contributed to how well 3-4 year olds repeat simple word chunks. Corresponding chunks were the same length, expressed similar content, and were all grammatically acceptable, yet the results of the study showed marked differences in performance when overall distributional frequency varied. It was found that a distributional model of language predicted the empirical findings better than a number of other models, replicating earlier findings and showing that children attend to distributional probabilities in an adult corpus. This suggested that language is more prediction-and-error based, rather than on abstract rules which nativist camps suggest.

Keywords: Abstractness, child psychology, language acquisition, prediction and error.

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Authors: Samad Nejatian, Vahideh Rezaie, Vahid Asadpour

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This paper presents a novel approach for the design of microwave circuits using Adaptive Network Fuzzy Inference Optimizer (ANFIO). The method takes advantage of direct synthesis of subsections of the amplifier using very fast and accurate ANFIO models based on exact simulations using ADS. A mapping from course space to fine space known as space mapping is also used. The proposed synthesis approach takes into account the noise and scattering parameters due to parasitic elements to achieve optimal results. The overall ANFIO system is capable of designing different LNAs at different noise and scattering criteria. This approach offers significantly reduced time in the design of microwave amplifiers within the validity range of the ANFIO system. The method has been proven to work efficiently for a 2.4GHz LNA example. The S21 of 10.1 dB and noise figure (NF) of 2.7 dB achieved for ANFIO while S21 of 9.05 dB and NF of 2.6 dB achieved for ANN.

Keywords: fuzzy system, low noise amplifier, microwaveamplifier, space mapping

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Authors: Ibrahim Naeimifar, Omid Naeemifar

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Evaluation of the excavation-induced ground movements is an important design aspect of support systems in urban areas. Geological and geotechnical conditions of an excavation area have significant effects on excavation-induced ground movements and the related damage. This paper is aimed at studying the performance of excavation walls supported by nails in jointed rock medium. The performance of nailed walls is investigated based on evaluating the excavation-induced ground movements. For this purpose, a set of calibrated 2D finite element models are developed by taking into account the nail-rock-structure interactions, the anisotropic properties of jointed rock, and the staged construction process. The results of this paper highlight effects of different parameters such as joint inclinations, anisotropy of rocks and nail inclinations on deformation parameters of excavation wall supported by nails.

Keywords: Finite element, jointed rock, nailing, performance.

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Authors: Okolo Chimaobi Valentine

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Commercial banks in Nigeria adopted many strategies to attract fresh deposits including the use of high deposit rate. However, pricing of banking services moved in favor of the banks at the expense of customers, resulting in their seeking other investment alternatives rather than saving their money in the bank. Both deposit and lending rates were greatly influenced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) decision on interest rate. Therefore, commercial bank effort to attract deposits via manipulation of her rates was greatly limited, otherwise the banks will be giving out more than it earned. The study aimed at examining the relationship between interest rate and fixed fund deposit of commercial banks, how policy-controlled interest rate affected commercial bank’s fixed fund deposit The researcher employed ordinary least square technique, using, multiple linear regression, unrestricted vector auto-regression, correlation matrix test, granger causality and impulse response graph in the analysis. Commercial bank’s interest rates affected commercial bank’s fixed fund deposit significantly while policy-controlled interest rate did not significantly transmit through the commercial bank’s interest rates to affect fixed fund deposit. While commercial banks seek creative ways to expand their fixed fund deposit, policy authorities in Nigeria should better coordinate interest rate fluctuation and induce competition in the entire financial sector.

Keywords: Commercial bank, fixed fund deposit, fluctuation effects, interest rate.

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Authors: A. Jrade, N. Markiz, N. Albelwi

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Optimizing equipment selection in heavy earthwork operations is a critical key in the success of any construction project. The objective of this research incentive was geared towards developing a computer model to assist contractors and construction managers in estimating the cost of heavy earthwork operations. Economical operation analysis was conducted for an equipment fleet taking into consideration the owning and operating costs involved in earthwork operations. The model is being developed in a Microsoft environment and is capable of being integrated with other estimating and optimization models. In this study, Caterpillar® Performance Handbook [5] was the main resource used to obtain specifications of selected equipment. The implementation of the model shall give optimum selection of equipment fleet not only based on cost effectiveness but also in terms of versatility. To validate the model, a case study of an actual dam construction project was selected to quantify its degree of accuracy.

Keywords: Operation analysis, optimization model, equipment economics, equipment selection.

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Authors: Bharatendra Rai

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Predictive data analysis and modeling involving machine learning techniques become challenging in presence of too many explanatory variables or features. Presence of too many features in machine learning is known to not only cause algorithms to slow down, but they can also lead to decrease in model prediction accuracy. This study involves housing dataset with 79 quantitative and qualitative features that describe various aspects people consider while buying a new house. Boruta algorithm that supports feature selection using a wrapper approach build around random forest is used in this study. This feature selection process leads to 49 confirmed features which are then used for developing predictive random forest models. The study also explores five different data partitioning ratios and their impact on model accuracy are captured using coefficient of determination (r-square) and root mean square error (rsme).

Keywords: Housing data, feature selection, random forest, Boruta algorithm, root mean square error.

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Authors: Vladimir Korovkin, Albert Park, Evgeny Kaganer

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Digital divide, the gap in the access to the world of digital technologies and the socio-economic opportunities that they create is an important phenomenon of the XXI century. This gap may exist between countries, regions within a country or socio-demographic groups, creating the classes of “digital have and have nots”. While the 1st-level divide (the difference in opportunities to access the digital networks) was demonstrated to diminish with time, the issues of 2nd level divide (the difference in skills and usage of digital systems) and 3rd level divide (the difference in effects obtained from digital technology) may grow. The paper offers a systemic review of literature on the measurement of the digital divide, noting the certain conceptual stagnation due to the lack of effective instruments that would capture the complex nature of the phenomenon. As a result, many important concepts do not receive the empiric exploration they deserve. As a solution the paper suggests a composite Digital Life Index, that studies separately the digital supply and demand across seven independent dimensions providing for 14 subindices. The Index is based on Internet-borne data, a distinction from traditional research approaches that rely on official statistics or surveys. The application of the model to the study of the digital divide between Russian regions and between cities in China have brought promising results. The paper advances the existing methodological literature on the 2nd level digital divide and can also inform practical decision-making regarding the strategies of national and regional digital development.

Keywords: Digital transformation, second-level digital divide, composite index, digital policy.

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Authors: H. M. Usman Sani, Shafaat A. Bazaz, Nisar Ahmed

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In this paper, Fabless Prototyping Methodology is introduced for the design and analysis of MEMS devices. Conventionally Finite Element Analysis (FEA) is performed before system level simulation. In our proposed methodology, system level simulation is performed earlier than FEA as it is computationally less extensive and low cost. System level simulations are based on equivalent behavioral models of MEMS device. Electrostatic actuation based MEMS Microgripper is chosen as case study to implement this methodology. This paper addresses the behavioral model development and simulation of actuator part of an electrostatically actuated Microgripper. Simulation results show that the actuator part of Microgripper works efficiently for a voltage range of 0-45V with the corresponding jaw displacement of 0-4.5425μm. With some minor changes in design, this range can be enhanced to 15μm at 85V.

Keywords: MEMS Actuator, Behavioral Model, CoventorWare, Microgripper, SOIMUMPs, System Level Simulation

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Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

Abstract:

The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: Flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina.

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