Search results for: long term instability risks

Authors: Charline David, Alexandre Blondin Massé, Arnaud Zinflou

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We present a multiple equation time series approach for the short-term load forecasting applied to the electrical power load consumption for the whole Quebec province, in Canada. More precisely, we take into account three meteorological variables — temperature, cloudiness and wind speed —, and we use meteorological measurements taken at different locations on the territory. Our final model shows an average MAPE score of 1.79% over an 8-years dataset.

Keywords: Short-term load forecasting, special days, time series, multiple equations, parallelization, clustering.

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Authors: B. Dora Arul Selvi, .N. Kamaraj

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Transient Stability is an important issue in power systems planning, operation and extension. The objective of transient stability analysis problem is not satisfied with mere transient instability detection or evaluation and it is most important to complement it by defining fast and efficient control measures in order to ensure system security. This paper presents a new Fuzzy Support Vector Machines (FSVM) to investigate the stability status of power systems and a modified generation rescheduling scheme to bring back the identified unstable cases to a more economical and stable operating point. FSVM improves the traditional SVM (Support Vector Machines) by adding fuzzy membership to each training sample to indicate the degree of membership of this sample to different classes. The preventive control based on economic generator rescheduling avoids the instability of the power systems with minimum change in operating cost under disturbed conditions. Numerical results on the New England 39 bus test system show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Fuzzy Support Vector Machine (FSVM), Incremental Cost, Preventive Control, Transient stability

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Authors: Driss Kettani

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In this paper, we shed light on the “Digital Divide 2.0,” which we see as COVID-19’s version of the digital divide. We believe that “fighting” against digital divide 2.0 necessitates for a country to be seriously advanced in the global digital transformation that is, naturally, a complex, delicate, costly and long-term process. We build an argument supporting our assumption and, from there, we present the foundations of a computational framework to guide and streamline digital transformation at all levels.

Keywords: Digital divide 2.0, digital transformation, ICTs for development, computational outcomes assessment.

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Authors: Sze Yee Lee

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The death of a sibling in childhood leads to significant impacts on both personal and family development of the surviving siblings, however, both short-term and long-term effects of sibling loss in Chinese societies such as Hong Kong have been inadequately documented in the literature. This paper explores the experience of encountering siblings’ death during childhood with the use of semi-structured interviews. Through thematic analysis, the author explores the impacts on surviving siblings’ emotions, coping styles, struggles and challenges and personal development. Furthermore, the influences on family dynamics are explored thoroughly, including the changes in family atmosphere, family roles, family relationship, family communication and parenting styles. More importantly, the author identifies (i) existing continuing bonds; (ii) crying; (iii) adequate social support; (iv) hiding own emotions as a gesture of protecting parents as the crucial elements pertinent to surviving siblings’ successful adaptation in the face of sibling loss. In addition, “child-centered” and “family-centered” service implications of families with a sibling's death in a Chinese context are discussed.

Keywords: Surviving children, sibling’s death, child-centered, family-centered.

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Authors: Ebipatei Victoria Tunyan, T. A. Cao, Cheol Young Ock

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Detecting subjectively biased statements is a vital task. This is because this kind of bias, when present in the text or other forms of information dissemination media such as news, social media, scientific texts, and encyclopedias, can weaken trust in the information and stir conflicts amongst consumers. Subjective bias detection is also critical for many Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks like sentiment analysis, opinion identification, and bias neutralization. Having a system that can adequately detect subjectivity in text will boost research in the above-mentioned areas significantly. It can also come in handy for platforms like Wikipedia, where the use of neutral language is of importance. The goal of this work is to identify the subjectively biased language in text on a sentence level. With machine learning, we can solve complex AI problems, making it a good fit for the problem of subjective bias detection. A key step in this approach is to train a classifier based on BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers) as upstream model. BERT by itself can be used as a classifier; however, in this study, we use BERT as data preprocessor as well as an embedding generator for a Bi-LSTM (Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory) network incorporated with attention mechanism. This approach produces a deeper and better classifier. We evaluate the effectiveness of our model using the Wiki Neutrality Corpus (WNC), which was compiled from Wikipedia edits that removed various biased instances from sentences as a benchmark dataset, with which we also compare our model to existing approaches. Experimental analysis indicates an improved performance, as our model achieved state-of-the-art accuracy in detecting subjective bias. This study focuses on the English language, but the model can be fine-tuned to accommodate other languages.

Keywords: Subjective bias detection, machine learning, BERT–BiLSTM–Attention, text classification, natural language processing.

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Authors: Cheewaphongphan P., Garivait S., Pongpullponsak A., Patumsawad S.

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Thailand is one of the world-s leaders of rice producers and exporters. Farmers have to increase the rice cultivation frequency for serving the national increasing of export-s demand. It leads to an elimination of rice residues by open burning which is the quickest and costless management method. The open burning of rice residue is one of the major causes of air pollutants and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. Under ASEAN agreement on trans-boundary haze, Thailand set the master plan to mitigate air pollutant emission from open burning of agricultural residues. In this master plan, residues incorporation is promoted as alternative management method to open burning. However, the assessment of both options in term of GHG emission in order to investigate their contribution to long-term global warming is still scarce or inexistent. In this study, a method on rice residues assessment was first developed in order to estimate and compare GHG emissions from rice cultivation under rice residues open burning and the case with incorporation of the same amount of rice residues, using 2006 IPCC guidelines for emission estimation and Life Cycle Analysis technique. The emission from rice cultivation in different preparing area practice was also discussed.

Keywords: Greenhouse gases, Incorporation, Rice cultivation, Rice field residue, Rice residue management

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Authors: Guohua Tu, Zhi Fu, Zhiwei Hu, Neil D Sandham, Jianqiang Chen

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Tripping of boundary-layers from laminar to turbulent flow, which may be necessary in specific practical applications, requires high amplitude disturbances to be introduced into the boundary layers without large drag penalties. As a possible improvement on fixed trip devices, a technique based on vortex shedding for enhancing supersonic flow transition is demonstrated in the present paper for a Mach 1.5 boundary layer. The compressible Navier-Stokes equations are solved directly using a high-order (fifth-order in space and third-order in time) finite difference method for small-scale cylinders suspended transversely near the wall. For cylinders with proper diameter and mount location, asymmetry vortices shed within the boundary layer are capable of tripping laminar-turbulent transition. Full three-dimensional simulations showed that transition was enhanced. A parametric study of the size and mounting location of the cylinder is carried out to identify the most effective setup. It is also found that the vortex shedding can be suppressed by some factors such as wall effect.

Keywords: Boundary layer instability, boundary layer transition, vortex shedding, supersonic flows, flow control.

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Authors: Mária Hudáková, Vladimír Míka, Katarína Hollá

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Making decisions is the core of management and a result of conscious activities which is under way in a particular environment and concrete conditions. The managers decide about the goals, procedures and about the methods how to respond to the changes and to the problems which developed. Their decisions affect the effectiveness, quality, economy and the overall successfulness in every organisation. In spite of this fact, they do not pay sufficient attention to the individual steps of the decision-making process. They emphasise more how to cope with the individual methods and techniques of making decisions and forget about the way how to cope with analysing the problem or assessing the individual solution variants. In many cases, the underestimating of the analytical phase can lead to an incorrect assessment of the problem and this can then negatively influence its further solution. Based on our analysis of the theoretical solutions by individual authors who are dealing with this area and the realised research in Slovakia and also abroad we can recognise an insufficient interest of the managers to assess the risks in the decision-making process. The goal of this paper is to assess the risks in the managers´ decision-making process relating to the conditions of the environment, to the subject’s activity (the manager’s personality), to the insufficient assessment of individual variants for solving the problems but also to situations when the arisen problem is not solved. The benefit of this paper is the effort to increase the need of the managers to deal with the risks during the decision-making process. It is important for every manager to assess the risks in his/her decision-making process and to make efforts to take such decisions which reflect the basic conditions, states and development of the environment in the best way and especially for the managers´ decisions to contribute to achieving the determined goals of the organisation as effectively as possible.

Keywords: Risk, decision-making, manager, process, analysis, source of risk.

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Authors: N. Perko, N. Kavran, M. Bukljaš, I. Berbić

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This paper is a result of implemented research on proposed introduced methodology for nautical ports capacity planning by introducing a multi-criteria approach of defined criteria in the Adriatic Sea region. The purpose was analyzing the determinants - characteristics of infrastructure and services of nautical ports capacity allocated, especially nowadays due to COVID-19 pandemic, as crucial for successful operation of nautical ports. Giving the importance of the defined priorities for short-term and long-term planning is essential not only in terms of the development of nautical tourism, but also in terms of developing the maritime system, but unfortunately this is not always carried out. Evaluation of the use of resources should follow from a detailed analysis of all aspects of resources bearing in mind that nautical tourism used resources in a sustainable manner and generates effects in the tourism and maritime sectors. Consequently, identified multiplier effect of nautical tourism, which should be defined and quantified in detail, should be one of the major competitive products on the Croatian Adriatic and the Mediterranean. Research of nautical tourism is necessary to quantify the effects and required planning system development. In the future, the greatest threat to long-term sustainable development of nautical tourism can be its further uncontrolled or unlimited and undirected development, especially under pressure markedly higher demand than supply for new moorings in the Mediterranean. Results of this implemented research are applicable to nautical ports management and decision makers of maritime transport system development. This paper will present implemented research and obtained result - developed methodology for nautical port capacity planning - Port Capacity Planning Multi-criteria decision-making. A proposed methodological approach of multi-criteria capacity planning includes four criteria (spatial - transport, cost - infrastructure, ecological and organizational criteria, and additional services). The importance of the criteria and sub-criteria is evaluated and carried out the basis for a sensitivity analysis of the importance of the criteria and sub-criteria. Based on the analysis of the identified and quantified importance of certain criteria and sub-criteria as well as sensitivity analysis and analysis of changes of the quantified importance scientific and applicable results will be presented. These obtained results have practical applicability by management of nautical ports in the planning of increasing capacity and further development and for the adaptation of existing nautical ports. The obtained research is applicable and replicable in other seas and results are especially important and useful in this COVID-19 pandemic challenging maritime development framework.

Keywords: Adriatic Sea, capacity, infrastructures, maritime system, methodology, nautical ports, nautical tourism, service.

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Authors: N. Chitanand

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Given the dynamic nature of the higher education landscape, induction programmes for new academics has become the norm nowadays to support academics negotiate these rough terrain. This study investigates an induction programme for new academics in a higher education institution to establish what difference it has made to participants. The findings revealed that the benefits ranged from creating safe spaces for collaboration and networking to fostering reflective practice and contributing to the scholarship of teaching and learning. The study also revealed that some of the intentions of the programme may not have been achieved, for example transformative learning. This led to questioning whether this intention is an appropriate one given the short duration of the programme and the long, drawn out process of transformation. It may be concluded that the academic induction programme in this study serves to sow the seeds for transformative learning through fostering critically reflective practice. Recommendations for further study could include long term impact of the programme on student learning and success, these being the core business of higher education. It is also recommended that in addition to an induction programme, the university invests in a mentoring programme for new staff and extend the support for academics in order to sustain critical reflection and which may contribute to transformative educational practice.

Keywords: Induction programme, reflective practice, scholarship of teaching, transformative learning.

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Authors: Kateřina Sekulová, Michal Šimon

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Ergonomics is a useful tool for creating a healthy and safe workplace. The long-term action of harmful conditions on the health of workers is the emergence of occupational disease, and the firm-s increased compensation costs associated with these diseases, but is also the loss of time needed for educating and including new workers in the work process. The article deals with the link of ergonomics to occupational diseases, factors which influence these diseases. In the conclusion, a model is described to help reduce the risk of selected occupational diseases using ergonomic principles and knowledge.

Keywords: ergonomics, occupational diseases, optimization, workplace health

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Authors: Tony Austin, Shanghua Sun, Nathan Lea, Steve Iliffe, Dipak Kalra, David Ingram, David Patterson

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Computer-based decision support (CDSS) systems can deliver real patient care and increase chances of long-term survival in areas of chronic disease management prone to poor control. One such CDSS, for the management of warfarin, is described in this paper and the outcomes shown. Data is derived from the running system and show a performance consistently around 20% better than the applicable guidelines.

Keywords: "Decision Support", "Anticoagulant Control"

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Authors: Firas M. Tuaimah

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This paper presents an Artificial Neural Network based approach for short-term load forecasting and exactly for two days ahead. Two seasons have been discussed for Iraqi power system, namely summer and winter; the hourly load demand is the most important input variables for ANN based load forecasting. The recorded daily load profile with a lead time of 1-48 hours for July and December of the year 2012 was obtained from the operation and control center that belongs to the Ministry of Iraqi electricity.

The results of the comparison show that the neural network gives a good prediction for the load forecasting and for two days ahead.

Keywords: Short-Term Load Forecasting, Artificial Neural Networks, Back propagation learning.

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Authors: Manuela Nayantara Jeyaraj

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Green IT is a term that refers to the collective strategic and tactical practices that unswervingly condense the carbon footprint to a diminished proportion in an establishment’s computing procedures. This concept has been tightly knit with IT related organizations; hence it has been precluded to be applied within non-IT organizations in Sri Lanka. With the turn of the century, computing technologies have taken over commonplace activities in every nook and corner in Sri Lanka, which is still on the verge of moving forth in its march towards being a developed country. Hence, it needs to be recursively proven that non-IT industries are well-bound to adhere to ‘Green IT’ practices as well, in order to reduce their carbon footprint and move towards considering the practicality of implementing Green-IT practices within their work-arounds. There are several spheres that need to be taken into account in creating awareness of ‘Green IT’, such as the economic breach, technologies available, legislative bounds, community mind-set and many more. This paper tends to reconnoiter causes that currently restrain non-IT organizations from considering Green IT concepts. By doing so, it is expected to prove the beneficial providence gained by implementing this concept within the organization. The ultimate goal is to propose feasible ‘Green IT’ practices that could be implemented within the context of Sri Lankan non-IT sectors in order to ensure that organization’s sustainable growth towards a long term existence.

Keywords: Computing practices, green IT, non-IT industries, Sri Lanka, sustainability.

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Authors: Frantisek Bozek, Alena Bumbova, Eduard Bakos

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Paper is dealing with vulnerability concerning elements of hydrological structures and elements of technological equipments which are acceptable for groundwater resources. The vulnerability assessment stems from the application of the register of hazards and a potential threat to individual water source elements within each type of hazard. The proposed procedure is pattern for assessing the risks of disturbance, damage, or destruction of water source by the identified natural or technological hazards and consequently for classification of these risks in relation to emergency water supply. Using of this procedure was verified on selected groundwater resource in particular region, which seems to be as potentially useful for crisis planning system.

Keywords: Hazard, Hydrogeological Structure, Elements, Index, Sensitivity, Water Source, Vulnerability

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Authors: Ahmed R. Z. Baghdadi, Mona H. Gamal Eldein

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Background: With the perceived pain and poor function experienced following knee arthroplasty, patients usually feel un-satisfied. Yet, a controversy still persists on the appropriate operative technique that doesn’t affect proprioception much. Purpose: This study compared the effects of Cruciate Retaining (CR) and Posterior Stabilized (PS) total knee arthroplasty (TKA on dynamic balance, pain and functional performance following rehabilitation. Methods: Thirty patients with CRTKA (group I), thirty with PSTKA (group II) and fifteen indicated for arthroplasty but weren’t operated on yet (group III) participated in the study. The mean age was 54.53±3.44, 55.13±3.48 and 55.33±2.32 years and BMI 35.7±3.03, 35.7±1.99 and 35.73±1.03 kg/m2 for groups I, II and III respectively. The Berg Balance Scale (BBS), WOMAC pain subscale and Timed Up-and-Go (TUG) and Stair-Climbing (SC) tests were used for assessment. Assessments were conducted four weeks preand post-operatively, three, six and twelve months post-operatively with the control group being assessed at the same time intervals. The post-operative rehabilitation involved hospitalization (1st week), home-based (2nd-4th weeks), and outpatient clinic (5th-12th weeks) programs, follow-up to all groups for twelve months. Results: The Mixed design MANOVA revealed that group I had significantly lower pain scores and SC time compared with group II three, six and twelve months post-operatively. Moreover, the BBS scores increased significantly and the pain scores and TUG and SC time decreased significantly six months post-operatively compared with four weeks pre- and post-operatively and three months postoperatively in groups I and II with the opposite being true four weeks post-operatively. But no significant differences in BBS scores, pain scores and TUG and SC time between six and twelve months postoperatively in groups I and II. Interpretation/Conclusion: CRTKA is preferable to PSTKA, possibly due to the preserved human proprioceptors in the un-excised PCL.

Keywords: Dynamic Balance, Functional Performance, Knee Arthroplasty, Long-Term.

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Authors: Nadira Kaimova

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In this paper it was examined the influence of margin regulation on stock market volatility in EU 1993 – 2014. Regulating margin requirements or haircuts for securities financing transactions has for a long time been considered as a potential tool to limit the build-up of leverage and dampen volatility in financial markets. The margin requirement dictates how much investors can borrow against these securities. Margin can be an important part of investment. Using daily and monthly stock returns and there is no convincing evidence that EU Regulation margin requirements have served to dampen stock market volatility. In this paper was detected the expected negative relation between margin requirements and the amount of margin credit outstanding. Also, it confirmed that changes in margin requirements by the EU regulation have tended to follow than lead changes in market volatility. For the analysis have been used the modified Levene statistics to test whether the standard deviation of stock returns in the 25, 50 and 100 days preceding margin changes is the same as that in the succeeding 25, 50 and 100 days. The analysis started in May 1993 when it was first empowered to set the initial margin requirement and the last sample was in May 2014. To test whether margin requirements influence stock market volatility over the long term, the sample of stock returns was divided into 14 periods, according to the 14 changes in margin requirements.

Keywords: Levene statistic, Margin Regulation, Stock Market, Volatility.

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Authors: Meor O. Hamzah, Seyed R. Omranian, Ali Jamshidi, Mohd R M. Hasan

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This paper characterizes the effects of artificial short term aging in the laboratory on the rheological properties of virgin 80/100 penetration grade asphalt binder. After several years in service, asphalt mixture started to deteriorate due to aging. Aging is a complex physico-chemical phenomenon that influences asphalt binder rheological properties causing a deterioration in asphalt mixture performance. To ascertain asphalt binder aging effects, the virgin, artificially aged and extracted asphalt binder were tested via the Rolling Thin film Oven (RTFO), Dynamic Shear Rheometer (DSR) and Rotational Viscometer (RV). A comparative study between laboratory and field aging conditions were also carried out. The results showed that the specimens conditioned for 85 minutes inside the RTFO was insufficient to simulate the actual short term aging caused that took place in the field under Malaysian field conditions

Keywords: Asphalt binder, Short term aging, Rheological properties, Viscosity, Temperature susceptibility.

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Authors: Marko Spasojevic, Ying Hei Chui, Yuxiang Chen

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Increasing the level of exterior insulation in residential buildings is a popular way for improving the thermal characteristic of building enclosure and reducing heat loss. However, the layout and properties of materials composing the wall have a great effect on moisture accumulation within the wall cavity, long-term durability of a wall as well as the structural performance. A one-dimensional hygrothermal modeling has been performed to investigate moisture condensation risks and the drying capacity of standard 2×4 and 2×6 light wood-frame wall assemblies including exterior low-permeance extruded polystyrene (XPS) insulation. The analysis considered two different wall configurations whereby the rigid insulation board was placed either between Oriented Strand Board (OSB) sheathing and the stud or outboard to the structural sheathing. The thickness of the insulation varied between 0 mm and 50 mm and the analysis has been conducted for eight different locations in Canada, covering climate zone 4 through zone 8. Results show that the wall configuration with low-permeance insulation inserted between the stud and OSB sheathing accumulates more moisture within the stud cavity, compared to the assembly with the same insulation placed exterior to the sheathing. On the other hand, OSB moisture contents of the latter configuration were markedly higher. Consequently, the analysis of hygrothermal performance investigated and compared moisture accumulation in both the OSB and stud cavity. To investigate the structural performance of the wall and the effect of soft insulation layer inserted between the sheathing and framing, forty nail connection specimens were tested. Results have shown that both the connection strength and stiffness experience a significant reduction as the insulation thickness increases. These results will be compared with results from a full-scale shear wall tests in order to investigate if the capacity of shear walls with insulated sheathing would experience a similar reduction in structural capacities.

Keywords: Hygrothermal analysis, insulated sheathing, moisture performance, nail joints, wood shear wall.

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Authors: Karam Y. Maalawi

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This paper presents a generalized formulation for the problem of buckling optimization of anisotropic, radially graded, thin-walled, long cylinders subject to external hydrostatic pressure. The main structure to be analyzed is built of multi-angle fibrous laminated composite lay-ups having different volume fractions of the constituent materials within the individual plies. This yield to a piecewise grading of the material in the radial direction; that is the physical and mechanical properties of the composite material are allowed to vary radially. The objective function is measured by maximizing the critical buckling pressure while preserving the total structural mass at a constant value equals to that of a baseline reference design. In the selection of the significant optimization variables, the fiber volume fractions adjoin the standard design variables including fiber orientation angles and ply thicknesses. The mathematical formulation employs the classical lamination theory, where an analytical solution that accounts for the effective axial and flexural stiffness separately as well as the inclusion of the coupling stiffness terms is presented. The proposed model deals with dimensionless quantities in order to be valid for thin shells having arbitrary thickness-to-radius ratios. The critical buckling pressure level curves augmented with the mass equality constraint are given for several types of cylinders showing the functional dependence of the constrained objective function on the selected design variables. It was shown that material grading can have significant contribution to the whole optimization process in achieving the required structural designs with enhanced stability limits.

Keywords: Buckling instability, structural optimization, functionally graded material, laminated cylindrical shells, externalhydrostatic pressure.

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Authors: Berrin Şentürk

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In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: Bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis.

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Authors: Gints Jekabsons

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The approach of subset selection in polynomial regression model building assumes that the chosen fixed full set of predefined basis functions contains a subset that is sufficient to describe the target relation sufficiently well. However, in most cases the necessary set of basis functions is not known and needs to be guessed – a potentially non-trivial (and long) trial and error process. In our research we consider a potentially more efficient approach – Adaptive Basis Function Construction (ABFC). It lets the model building method itself construct the basis functions necessary for creating a model of arbitrary complexity with adequate predictive performance. However, there are two issues that to some extent plague the methods of both the subset selection and the ABFC, especially when working with relatively small data samples: the selection bias and the selection instability. We try to correct these issues by model post-evaluation using Cross-Validation and model ensembling. To evaluate the proposed method, we empirically compare it to ABFC methods without ensembling, to a widely used method of subset selection, as well as to some other well-known regression modeling methods, using publicly available data sets.

Keywords: Basis function construction, heuristic search, modelensembles, polynomial regression.

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Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki (Aiba), Takeshi Hiromatsu

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Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Therefore, this paper provides a model which supports the selection of measures by applying multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. Additionally, a list of measures is also provided to make the selection easier and more effective without any leakage of measures.

Keywords: Information security risk treatment, Selection of risk measures, Risk acceptance and Multi-objective optimization.

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Authors: Hsuan-Ku Liu

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In this paper, the American exchange option (AEO) valuation problem is modelled as a free boundary problem. The critical stock price for an AEO is satisfied an integral equation implicitly. When the remaining time is large enough, an asymptotic formula is provided for pricing an AEO. The numerical results reveal that our asymptotic pricing formula is robust and accurate for the long-term AEO.

Keywords: Integral equation, asymptotic solution, free boundary problem, American exchange option.

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Authors: Sabry A. El Azazy

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Tourism plays an essential role in supporting the National Economy. Egypt was ranked as one of the most attractive touristic destinations worldwide. Tourism as a service sector affects political events and unstable conditions. Within the revolution of January 25th, 2011, tourism became below standards, and the archeological heritage sites were subject to threat. Because of the political tension and social instability, Egypt's tourism sector has drastically dropped. Currently, Egypt is working on overcoming the crisis caused by political unrest. However, it is expected to take a long time to get back to where it was, especially in terms of regaining the confidence of travelers in the country's ability to guarantee and maintain security and stability. Recently, many great projects have been done, such as; New Administrative Cairo Capital, New Suez Canal logistic project, New City of Al Alamin, New Grand Egyptian Museum, as well as other great projects that reflect positively on the tourism industry and archaeological heritage development in Egypt.

Keywords: Archaeology, archaeological heritage, attractions, national economy, political events, touristic destinations, tourism industry.

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Authors: Yan Shuang Zhang, Taehan Lee, Byung Ho Jeong

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A DEA model can generally evaluate the performance using multiple inputs and outputs for the same period. However, it is hard to avoid the production lead time phenomenon some times, such as long-term project or marketing activity. A couple of models have been suggested to capture this time lag issue in the context of DEA. This paper develops a dual-MPO model to deal with time lag effect in evaluating efficiency. A numerical example is also given to show that the proposed model can be used to get efficiency and reference set of inefficient DMUs and to obtain projected target value of input attributes for inefficient DMUs to be efficient.

Keywords: DEA, efficiency, time lag, dual problem.

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Authors: Tomiris Tussupova

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The research highlights the influence of political conditions on the operations, investment decisions, and international production networks of Multinational Corporations (MNCs) and Transnational Corporations (TNCs). It investigates how factors such as political instability, protectionist policies, and regulatory changes impact the structure and functioning of International Production Cooperation (IPC). Furthermore, the analysis identifies gaps in the literature and formulates pertinent research questions to address in the paper. The study explores MNCs and TNCs' responses to changing political and economic conditions, emphasizing their strategies for adaptation. Additionally, it delves into the specific mechanisms employed by these corporations to mitigate risks and challenges arising from evolving political and economic landscapes. The research provides policy recommendations for governments, international organizations, and industry associations. These recommendations focus on enhancing policy stability, promoting regional integration, supporting digital technology adoption, and encouraging responsible and sustainable practices in IPC. By incorporating these suggestions, policymakers and practitioners can foster an enabling environment for MNCs and TNCs, thereby facilitating stable and efficient international production networks. Overall, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of the role of MNCs and TNCs in IPC under changing political and economic conditions. The insights garnered from this study can guide future research and inform policy decisions to promote sustainable and resilient international production cooperation.

Keywords: International cooperation, Multinational Corporations, Transnational Corporations, international production networks, Global Value Chains.

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Authors: Kavita Burse, Manish Manoria, Vishnu P. S. Kirar

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The back propagation algorithm calculates the weight changes of artificial neural networks, and a common approach is to use a training algorithm consisting of a learning rate and a momentum factor. The major drawbacks of above learning algorithm are the problems of local minima and slow convergence speeds. The addition of an extra term, called a proportional factor reduces the convergence of the back propagation algorithm. We have applied the three term back propagation to multiplicative neural network learning. The algorithm is tested on XOR and parity problem and compared with the standard back propagation training algorithm.

Keywords: Three term back propagation, multiplicative neuralnetwork, proportional factor, local minima.

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Authors: O. Miraliyari, M.M. Najafizadeh, A.R. Rahmani, A. Momeni Hezaveh

Abstract:

This paper presents the buckling analysis of short and long functionally graded cylindrical shells under thermal and mechanical loads. The shell properties are assumed to vary continuously from the inner surface to the outer surface of the shell. The equilibrium and stability equations are derived using the total potential energy equations, Euler equations and first order shear deformation theory assumptions. The resulting equations are solved for simply supported boundary conditions. The critical temperature and pressure loads are calculated for both short and long cylindrical shells. Comparison studies show the effects of functionally graded index, loading type and shell geometry on critical buckling loads of short and long functionally graded cylindrical shells.

Keywords: Buckling, Functionally graded materials, Short and long cylindrical shell, Thermal and mechanical loads.

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Authors: K. Reitner, F. Staberhofer, W. Ortner, M. Gerschberger

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to identify the main challenges faced by companies in the timber construction sector and to provide improvement opportunities that can be implemented on a short-, medium- and long-term basis. To identify the challenges and propose actions for each company a literature review and a multiple case research were conducted using the Quick Scan Audit Methodology. Finally, the findings and outcomes are compared with each other to support companies in the timer construction sector when implementing and restructuring their day-to-day activities.

Keywords: Supply chain management, supply chain challenges and opportunities, timber construction sector.

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