Search results for: local polynomial regression

Authors: P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

A new strain of Type A influenza virus can cause the transmission of H1N1 virus. This virus can spread between the people by coughing and sneezing. Because the people are always movement, so this virus can be easily spread. In this study, we construct the dynamical network model of H1N1 virus by separating the human into five groups; susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantine and recovered groups. The movement of people between houses (local level) is considered. The behaviors of solutions to our dynamical model are shown for the different parameters.

Keywords: Dynamical network, H1N1virus, local level, simulation.

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Authors: Akiko Kondo, Akio Kondo

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We are facing serious problems related to long-term depopulation and an aging society with a falling birth rate in Japan. In this situation, we are suffering from a shortfall in human resources as well as a shortage of workforce in rural regions. In addition, we are struggling with a protracted economic slump and excess concentration of population in the Tokyo Metropolitan area. It is an urgent national issue to consider how to live in this country and what kind of structure of society and administration policy is needed. It is necessary to clarify people’s desire for their way of living and social assistance to be provided. The aim of this study is to clarify the characteristics of regional issues and the degree of their seriousness in local municipalities of Japan. We conducted a questionnaire survey about regional agenda in all local municipalities in Japan. We obtained responses concerning the degree of seriousness of regional issues and degree of importance of policies. Based on the data gathered from the survey, it is apparent that many local municipalities are facing an aging population and declining population. We constructed a model to analyze factors for declining population. Using the model, it was clarified that a population’s age structure, job opportunities and income level affect the decline of population. In addition, we showed the way of the evaluation of state of local municipality.

Keywords: Evaluation, Local municipality, Regional analysis, Regional issue.

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Authors: Chaudhuri Manoj Kumar Swain, Susmita Das

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This paper explores a detailed procedure of predicting a path loss (PL) model and its application in estimating the coverage probability in a WiMAX network. For this a hybrid approach is followed in predicting an empirical PL model of a 2.65 GHz WiMAX network deployed in a suburban environment. Data collection, statistical analysis, and regression analysis are the phases of operations incorporated in this approach and the importance of each of these phases has been discussed properly. The procedure of collecting data such as received signal strength indicator (RSSI) through experimental set up is demonstrated. From the collected data set, empirical PL and RSSI models are predicted with regression technique. Furthermore, with the aid of the predicted PL model, essential parameters such as PL exponent as well as the coverage probability of the network are evaluated. This research work may assist in the process of deployment and optimisation of any cellular network significantly.

Keywords: WiMAX, RSSI, path loss, coverage probability, regression analysis.

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Authors: M.H. Ahmad Fadzil, Esa Prakasa, Hurriyatul Fitriyah, Hermawan Nugroho, Azura Mohd Affandi, S.H. Hussein

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Psoriasis is a widespread skin disease affecting up to 2% population with plaque psoriasis accounting to about 80%. It can be identified as a red lesion and for the higher severity the lesion is usually covered with rough scale. Psoriasis Area Severity Index (PASI) scoring is the gold standard method for measuring psoriasis severity. Scaliness is one of PASI parameter that needs to be quantified in PASI scoring. Surface roughness of lesion can be used as a scaliness feature, since existing scale on lesion surface makes the lesion rougher. The dermatologist usually assesses the severity through their tactile sense, therefore direct contact between doctor and patient is required. The problem is the doctor may not assess the lesion objectively. In this paper, a digital image analysis technique is developed to objectively determine the scaliness of the psoriasis lesion and provide the PASI scaliness score. Psoriasis lesion is modelled by a rough surface. The rough surface is created by superimposing a smooth average (curve) surface with a triangular waveform. For roughness determination, a polynomial surface fitting is used to estimate average surface followed by a subtraction between rough and average surface to give elevation surface (surface deviations). Roughness index is calculated by using average roughness equation to the height map matrix. The roughness algorithm has been tested to 444 lesion models. From roughness validation result, only 6 models can not be accepted (percentage error is greater than 10%). These errors occur due the scanned image quality. Roughness algorithm is validated for roughness measurement on abrasive papers at flat surface. The Pearson-s correlation coefficient of grade value (G) of abrasive paper and Ra is -0.9488, its shows there is a strong relation between G and Ra. The algorithm needs to be improved by surface filtering, especially to overcome a problem with noisy data.

Keywords: psoriasis, roughness algorithm, polynomial surfacefitting.

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Authors: Chiung-Ju Huang

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This study utilizes the quantile regression analysis to examine the impact of governance (including democratic quality and technical quality) on happiness in 101 countries worldwide, classified as “developed countries” and “developing countries”. The empirical results show that the impact of democratic quality and technical quality on happiness is significantly positive for “developed countries”, while is insignificant for “developing countries”. The results suggest that the authorities in developed countries can enhance the level of individual happiness by means of improving the democracy quality and technical quality. However, for developing countries, promoting the quality of governance in order to enhance the level of happiness may not be effective. Policy makers in developed countries may pay more attention on increasing real GDP per capita instead of promoting the quality of governance to enhance individual happiness.

Keywords: Governance, happiness, multiple regression, quantile regression.

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Authors: Cao Ziyuan, Luo Xuan

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To study the local force characteristics of a spatial Y-arch bridge, a medium-bearing spatial Y-arch bridge is used as the object of study, and the finite element software FEA is used to establish a spatial finite element model and analyze the force conditions of the arch legs under different most unfavorable loading conditions. It is found that the forces on the arch foot under different conditions are mainly in the longitudinal direction and transverse direction, which should be considered for strengthening. The research results can provide reference for the design and construction of the same type of bridge.

Keywords: Bridge engineering, special-shaped arch bridge, mechanical properties, local analysis.

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Authors: Kiurski S. Jelena, Aksentijević M. Snežana, Kecić S. Vesna, Oros B. Ivana

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Prosperity of electronic equipment in photocopying environment not only has improved work efficiency, but also has changed indoor air quality. Considering the number of photocopying employed, indoor air quality might be worse than in general office environments. Determining the contribution from any type of equipment to indoor air pollution is a complex matter. Non-methane hydrocarbons are known to have an important role on air quality due to their high reactivity. The presence of hazardous pollutants in indoor air has been detected in one photocopying shop in Novi Sad, Serbia. Air samples were collected and analyzed for five days, during 8-hr working time in three time intervals, whereas three different sampling points were determined. Using multiple linear regression model and software package STATISTICA 10 the concentrations of occupational hazards and microclimates parameters were mutually correlated. Based on the obtained multiple coefficients of determination (0.3751, 0.2389 and 0.1975), a weak positive correlation between the observed variables was determined. Small values of parameter F indicated that there was no statistically significant difference between the concentration levels of nonmethane hydrocarbons and microclimates parameters. The results showed that variable could be presented by the general regression model: y = b0 + b1xi1+ b2xi2. Obtained regression equations allow to measure the quantitative agreement between the variables and thus obtain more accurate knowledge of their mutual relations.

Keywords: Indoor air quality, multiple regression analysis, nonmethane hydrocarbons, photocopying process.

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Authors: József Valyon, Gábor Horváth

Abstract:

In comparison to the original SVM, which involves a quadratic programming task; LS–SVM simplifies the required computation, but unfortunately the sparseness of standard SVM is lost. Another problem is that LS-SVM is only optimal if the training samples are corrupted by Gaussian noise. In Least Squares SVM (LS–SVM), the nonlinear solution is obtained, by first mapping the input vector to a high dimensional kernel space in a nonlinear fashion, where the solution is calculated from a linear equation set. In this paper a geometric view of the kernel space is introduced, which enables us to develop a new formulation to achieve a sparse and robust estimate.

Keywords: Support Vector Machines, Least Squares SupportVector Machines, Regression, Sparse approximation.

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, Huda Yasin, Madiha Yasin, C. Ardil

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In this paper we use data mining techniques to investigate factors that contribute significantly to enhancing the risk of acute coronary syndrome. We assume that the dependent variable is diagnosis – with dichotomous values showing presence or  absence of disease. We have applied binary regression to the factors affecting the dependent variable. The data set has been taken from two different cardiac hospitals of Karachi, Pakistan. We have total sixteen variables out of which one is assumed dependent and other 15 are independent variables. For better performance of the regression model in predicting acute coronary syndrome, data reduction techniques like principle component analysis is applied. Based on results of data reduction, we have considered only 14 out of sixteen factors.

Keywords: Acute coronary syndrome (ACS), binary logistic regression analyses, myocardial ischemia (MI), principle component analysis, unstable angina (U.A.).

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Authors: S. Kittipongvises, T. Mino, C. Polprasert

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Global climate change has become the preeminent threat to human security in the 21st century. From mitigation perspective, this study aims to evaluate the performance of biogas renewable project under clean development mechanism activities (namely Korat-Waste-to-Energy) in Thailand and to assess local perceptions towards the significance of climate change mitigation and sustainability of such project in their community. Questionnaire was developed based on the national sustainable development criteria and was distributed among systematically selected households within project boundaries (n=260). Majority of the respondents strongly agreed with the reduction of odor problems (81%) and air pollution (76%). However, they were unsure about greenhouse gas reduction from such project and ignorant about the key issues of climate change. A lesson learned suggested that there is a need to further investigate the possible socio-psychological barriers may significantly shape public perception and understandings of climate change in the local context.

Keywords: Climate Change Mitigation, Local Perspective, Sustainability, Thailand

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Authors: Muftah H. El-Naas, Ameera F. Mohammad, Mabruk I. Suleiman, Mohamed Al Musharfy, Ali H. Al-Marzouqi

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CO₂ capture and storage technologies play a significant role in contributing to the control of climate change through the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. The present study evaluates and optimizes CO₂ capture through a process, where carbon dioxide is passed into pH adjusted high salinity water and reacted with sodium chloride to form a precipitate of sodium bicarbonate. This process is based on a modified Solvay process with higher CO₂ capture efficiency, higher sodium removal, and higher pH level without the use of ammonia. The process was tested in a bubble column semi-batch reactor and was optimized using response surface methodology (RSM). CO₂ capture efficiency and sodium removal were optimized in terms of major operating parameters based on four levels and variables in Central Composite Design (CCD). The operating parameters were gas flow rate (0.5–1.5 L/min), reactor temperature (10 to 50 ^oC), buffer concentration (0.2-2.6%) and water salinity (25-197 g NaCl/L). The experimental data were fitted to a second-order polynomial using multiple regression and analyzed using analysis of variance (ANOVA). The optimum values of the selected variables were obtained using response optimizer. The optimum conditions were tested experimentally using desalination reject brine with salinity ranging from 65,000 to 75,000 mg/L. The CO₂ capture efficiency in 180 min was 99% and the maximum sodium removal was 35%. The experimental and predicted values were within 95% confidence interval, which demonstrates that the developed model can successfully predict the capture efficiency and sodium removal using the modified Solvay method.

Keywords: Bubble column reactor, CO2 capture, Response Surface Methodology, water desalination.

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Authors: Atilla Akpinar, Basri Çelik

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In this paper we are interested in Moufang-Klingenberg planesM(A) defined over a local alternative ring A of dual numbers. We introduce two new collineations of M(A).

Keywords: Moufang-Klingenberg planes, local alternative ring, projective collineation.

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Authors: Jaharah A. Ghani, Muhammad Rizal, Ahmad Sayuti, Mohd Zaki Nuawi, Mohd Nizam Ab. Rahman, Che Hassan Che Haron

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This study presents a new method for detecting the cutting tool wear based on the measured cutting force signals using the regression model and I-kaz method. The detection of tool wear was done automatically using the in-house developed regression model and 3D graphic presentation of I-kaz 3D coefficient during machining process. The machining tests were carried out on a CNC turning machine Colchester Master Tornado T4 in dry cutting condition, and Kistler 9255B dynamometer was used to measure the cutting force signals, which then stored and displayed in the DasyLab software. The progression of the cutting tool flank wear land (VB) was indicated by the amount of the cutting force generated. Later, the I-kaz was used to analyze all the cutting force signals from beginning of the cut until the rejection stage of the cutting tool. Results of the IKaz analysis were represented by various characteristic of I-kaz 3D coefficient and 3D graphic presentation. The I-kaz 3D coefficient number decreases when the tool wear increases. This method can be used for real time tool wear monitoring.

Keywords: mathematical model, I-kaz method, tool wear

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Authors: R. B. Knudsen, O. T. Rasmussen, R. A. Alphinas

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The reason for conducting this research is to develop an algorithm that is capable of classifying news articles from the automobile industry, according to the competitive actions that they entail, with the use of Text Mining (TM) methods. It is needed to test how to properly preprocess the data for this research by preparing pipelines which fits each algorithm the best. The pipelines are tested along with nine different classification algorithms in the realm of regression, support vector machines, and neural networks. Preliminary testing for identifying the optimal pipelines and algorithms resulted in the selection of two algorithms with two different pipelines. The two algorithms are Logistic Regression (LR) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). These algorithms are optimized further, where several parameters of each algorithm are tested. The best result is achieved with the ANN. The final model yields an accuracy of 0.79, a precision of 0.80, a recall of 0.78, and an F1 score of 0.76. By removing three of the classes that created noise, the final algorithm is capable of reaching an accuracy of 94%.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, competitive dynamics, logistic regression, text classification, text mining.

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Authors: G. Dimauro, S. Impedovo, M.G. Lucchese, R. Modugno, G. Pirlo

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This paper presents the analysis of similarity between local decisions, in the process of alphanumeric hand-prints classification. From the analysis of local characteristics of handprinted numerals and characters, extracted by a zoning method, the set of classification decisions is obtained and the similarity among them is investigated. For this purpose the Similarity Index is used, which is an estimator of similarity between classifiers, based on the analysis of agreements between their decisions. The experimental tests, carried out using numerals and characters from the CEDAR and ETL database, respectively, show to what extent different parts of the patterns provide similar classification decisions.

Keywords: Handwriting Recognition, Optical Character Recognition, Similarity Index, Zoning.

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Authors: Ashish Thakur, Radhey Shyam Anand

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This paper presents the region based segmentation method for ultrasound images using local statistics. In this segmentation approach the homogeneous regions depends on the image granularity features, where the interested structures with dimensions comparable to the speckle size are to be extracted. This method uses a look up table comprising of the local statistics of every pixel, which are consisting of the homogeneity and similarity bounds according to the kernel size. The shape and size of the growing regions depend on this look up table entries. The algorithms are implemented by using connected seeded region growing procedure where each pixel is taken as seed point. The region merging after the region growing also suppresses the high frequency artifacts. The updated merged regions produce the output in formed of segmented image. This algorithm produces the results that are less sensitive to the pixel location and it also allows a segmentation of the accurate homogeneous regions.

Keywords: Local statistics, region growing, segmentation, ultrasound images.

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Authors: Qiuling Xie, Shanliang Zhu, Zongdi Sun

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In this paper, we analyzed the correlation relationship among PM2.5 from other five Air Quality Indices (AQIs) based on the grey relational degree, and built a multivariate nonlinear regression equation model of PM2.5 and the five monitoring indexes. For the optimal control problem of PM2.5, we took the partial large Cauchy distribution of membership equation as satisfaction function. We established a nonlinear programming model with the goal of maximum performance to price ratio. And the optimal control scheme is given.

Keywords: Grey relational degree, multiple linear regression, membership function, nonlinear programming.

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Authors: Babakina Alexandra, Yong Soo Kim

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In this study, we analyzed the factors that affect research funds using linear regression analysis to increase the effectiveness of investments in national research projects. We collected 7,916 items of data on research projects that were in the process of being finished or were completed between 2010 and 2011. Data pre-processing and visualization were performed to derive statistically significant results. We identified factors that affected funding using analysis of fit distributions and estimated increasing or decreasing tendencies based on these factors.

Keywords: R&D funding, Cost estimation, Linear regression, Preliminary feasibility study.

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Authors: Mohammed T. Shukri

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The failure of bridges due to excessive local scour during floods poses a challenging problem to hydraulic engineers. The failure of bridges piers is due to many reasons such as localized scour combined with general riverbed degradation. In this paper, we try to estimate the temporal variation of scour depth at nonuniform cylindrical bridge pier, by experimental work conducted in hydraulic laboratories of Gaziantep University Civil Engineering Department on a flume having dimensions of 8.3 m length, 0.8 m width and 0.9 m depth. The experiments will be carried on 20 cm depth of sediment layer having d₅₀=0.4 mm. Three bridge pier shapes having different scaled models will be constructed in a 1.5m of test section in the channel.

Keywords: Scour, local scour, bridge piers, scour depth.

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Authors: Mohamed K. El Daou

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We construct an exponentially weighted Legendre- Gauss Tau method for solving differential equations with oscillatory solutions. The proposed method is applied to Sturm-Liouville problems. Numerical examples illustrating the efficiency and the high accuracy of our results are presented.

Keywords: Oscillatory functions, Sturm-Liouville problems, legendre polynomial, gauss points.

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Authors: Daniel Stamate

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We introduce a logic-based framework for database updating under constraints. In our framework, the constraints are represented as an instantiated extended logic program. When performing an update, database consistency may be violated. We provide an approach of maintaining database consistency, and study the conditions under which the maintenance process is deterministic. We show that the complexity of the computations and decision problems presented in our framework is in each case polynomial time.

Keywords: Databases, knowledge bases, constraints, updates, minimal change, consistency.

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Authors: Ahmed Abdolkhalig, Rastko Zivanovic

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This paper evaluates the Total Vector Error of an estimated Phasor as define in IEEE C37.118 standard within different medium access in Local Area Networks (LAN). Three different LAN models (CSMA/CD, CSMA/AMP and Switched Ethernet) are evaluated. The Total Vector Error of the estimated Phasor has been evaluated for the effect of Nodes Number under the standardized network Band-width values defined in IEC 61850-9-2 communication standard (i.e. 0.1, 1 and 10 Gbps).

Keywords: Phasor, Local Area Network, Total Vector Error, IEEE C37.118, IEC 61850.

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Authors: Sotirios Raptis

Abstract:

Bayesian reasoning (BR) or Linear (Auto) Regression (AR/LR) can predict different sources of data using priors or other data, and can link social service demands in cohorts, while their consideration in isolation (self-prediction) may lead to service misuse ignoring the context. The paper advocates that BR with Binomial (BD), or Normal (ND) models or raw data (.D) as probabilistic updates can be compared to AR/LR to link services in Scotland and reduce cost by sharing healthcare (HC) resources. Clustering, cross-correlation, along with BR, LR, AR can better predict demand. Insurance companies and policymakers can link such services, and examples include those offered to the elderly, and low-income people, smoking-related services linked to mental health services, or epidemiological weight in children. 22 service packs are used that are published by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland and Scottish Government (SG) from 1981 to 2019, broken into 110 year series (factors), joined using LR, AR, BR. The Primary component analysis found 11 significant factors, while C-Means (CM) clustering gave five major clusters.

Keywords: Bayesian probability, cohorts, data frames, regression, services, prediction.

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Authors: Frank Emmert-Streib, Matthias Dehmer, Jing Liu, Max Muhlhauser

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The major objective of this paper is to introduce a new method to select genes from DNA microarray data. As criterion to select genes we suggest to measure the local changes in the correlation graph of each gene and to select those genes whose local changes are largest. More precisely, we calculate the correlation networks from DNA microarray data of cervical cancer whereas each network represents a tissue of a certain tumor stage and each node in the network represents a gene. From these networks we extract one tree for each gene by a local decomposition of the correlation network. The interpretation of a tree is that it represents the n-nearest neighbor genes on the n-th level of a tree, measured by the Dijkstra distance, and, hence, gives the local embedding of a gene within the correlation network. For the obtained trees we measure the pairwise similarity between trees rooted by the same gene from normal to cancerous tissues. This evaluates the modification of the tree topology due to tumor progression. Finally, we rank the obtained similarity values from all tissue comparisons and select the top ranked genes. For these genes the local neighborhood in the correlation networks changes most between normal and cancerous tissues. As a result we find that the top ranked genes are candidates suspected to be involved in tumor growth. This indicates that our method captures essential information from the underlying DNA microarray data of cervical cancer.

Keywords: Graph similarity, generalized trees, graph alignment, DNA microarray data, cervical cancer.

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Authors: Mária Stachová, Lukáš Sobíšek

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Data mining incorporates a group of statistical methods used to analyze a set of information, or a data set. It operates with models and algorithms, which are powerful tools with the great potential. They can help people to understand the patterns in certain chunk of information so it is obvious that the data mining tools have a wide area of applications. For example in the theoretical chemistry data mining tools can be used to predict moleculeproperties or improve computer-assisted drug design. Classification analysis is one of the major data mining methodologies. The aim of thecontribution is to create a classification model, which would be able to deal with a huge data set with high accuracy. For this purpose logistic regression, Bayesian logistic regression and random forest models were built using R software. TheBayesian logistic regression in Latent GOLD software was created as well. These classification methods belong to supervised learning methods. It was necessary to reduce data matrix dimension before construct models and thus the factor analysis (FA) was used. Those models were applied to predict the biological activity of molecules, potential new drug candidates.

Keywords: data mining, classification, drug design, QSAR

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Authors: N. Aldea, V. Rednic, F. Matei, Tiandou Hu, M. Neumann

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The nickel and gold nanoclusters as supported catalysts were analyzed by XAS, XRD and XPS in order to determine their local, global and electronic structure. The present study has pointed out a strong deformation of the local structure of the metal, due to its interaction with oxide supports. The average particle size, the mean squares of the microstrain, the particle size distribution and microstrain functions of the supported Ni and Au catalysts were determined by XRD method using Generalized Fermi Function for the X-ray line profiles approximation. Based on EXAFS analysis we consider that the local structure of the investigated systems is strongly distorted concerning the atomic number pairs. Metal-support interaction is confirmed by the shape changes of the probability densities of electron transitions: Ni K edge (1s → continuum and 2p), Au LIII-edge (2p3/2 → continuum, 6s, 6d5/2 and 6d3/2). XPS investigations confirm the metal-support interaction at their interface.

Keywords: local and global structure, metal-support interaction, supported metal catalysts, synchrotron radiation, X-ray absorptionspectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy.

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Authors: V. Charaia

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From the strategic point of view, not all Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) are always positively benefiting the host economy, i.e. not all Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) are promoting local/host economies. FDI could have different impact on different sectors of the economy, based not only on annual investment amount, but MNE motivations and peculiarities of the host economy in particular. FDI analysis based only on its amount can lead to incorrect decisions, it is much more important to understand the essence of investment. Consequently, our research is oriented on MNE’s motivations, answering which sectors are most popular among international investors and why, what motivated them to invest into one or another business. Georgian economy for the last period of time is attracting more and more efficiency seeking investments, which could be translated as - concentrating production in a limited number of locations to supply various markets, while benefiting local economy with: new technologies, employment, exports diversification, increased income for the local economy and so on. Foreign investors and MNEs in particular are no longer and not so much interested in the resource seeking investments, which was the case for Georgia in the last decade of XX century. Despite the fact of huge progress for the Georgian economy, still there is a room for foreign investors to make a local market oriented investments. The local market is still rich in imported products, which should be replaced by local ones. And the last but not the least important issue is that approximately 30% of all FDIs in Georgia according to this research are “efficiency seeking” investments, which is an enormous progress and a hope for future Georgian success.

Keywords: Investments, MNE, FDI motivations, Georgian economy.

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Authors: Abderrahmane Amrouche, Jean Michel Rouvaen

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In this paper we present an efficient system for independent speaker speech recognition based on neural network approach. The proposed architecture comprises two phases: a preprocessing phase which consists in segmental normalization and features extraction and a classification phase which uses neural networks based on nonparametric density estimation namely the general regression neural network (GRNN). The relative performances of the proposed model are compared to the similar recognition systems based on the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and the well known Discrete Hidden Markov Model (HMM-VQ) that we have achieved also. Experimental results obtained with Arabic digits have shown that the use of nonparametric density estimation with an appropriate smoothing factor (spread) improves the generalization power of the neural network. The word error rate (WER) is reduced significantly over the baseline HMM method. GRNN computation is a successful alternative to the other neural network and DHMM.

Keywords: Speech Recognition, General Regression NeuralNetwork, Hidden Markov Model, Recurrent Neural Network, ArabicDigits.

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Authors: Viacheslav Shkuratskyy, Aminu Bello Usman, Michael O’Dea, Mujeeb Ur Rehman, Saifur Rahman Sabuj

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This paper examines relationships between solar activity and earthquakes, it applied machine learning techniques: K-nearest neighbour, support vector regression, random forest regression, and long short-term memory network. Data from the SILSO World Data Center, the NOAA National Center, the GOES satellite, NASA OMNIWeb, and the United States Geological Survey were used for the experiment. The 23rd and 24th solar cycles, daily sunspot number, solar wind velocity, proton density, and proton temperature were all included in the dataset. The study also examined sunspots, solar wind, and solar flares, which all reflect solar activity, and earthquake frequency distribution by magnitude and depth. The findings showed that the long short-term memory network model predicts earthquakes more correctly than the other models applied in the study, and solar activity is more likely to effect earthquakes of lower magnitude and shallow depth than earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or larger with intermediate depth and deep depth

.

Keywords: K-Nearest Neighbour, Support Vector Regression, Random Forest Regression, Long Short-Term Memory Network, earthquakes, solar activity, sunspot number, solar wind, solar flares.

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Authors: K. Appasamy, P. Paul

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Mauritius, a developing small-island-state, is facing a recession which is having a considerable economic impact particularly on its construction sector. Further, the presence of foreign entities, both as companies and workers, within this sector is creating a very competitive environment for local firms. This study investigates the key drivers that allow foreign firms to participate in this sector, in particular looking at the international and local tender processes, and the capacity of local industry to participate. This study also looks at how the current set up may hinder the latter’s involvement. The methodology used included qualitative semi-structured interviews conducted with established foreign companies, local companies, and public bodies. Study findings indicate: there is an adequate availability of professional skills and expertise within the Mauritian construction industry but a lack of skilled labour especially at the operative level; projects awarded to foreign firms are either due to their uniqueness and hence lack of local knowledge, or due to foreign firms having lower tender bids; tendering systems and processes are weak, including monitoring and enforcement, which encourages corruption and favouritism; a high lev el of ignorance of this sector’s characteristics and opportunities exists amongst the local population; local entities are very profit oriented and have short term strategies that discourage long term investment in workforce training and development; but most importantly, stakeholders do not grasp the importance of encouraging youngsters to join this sector, they have no long term vision, and there is a lack of mutual involvement and collaboration between them. Although local industry is highly competent, qualified and experienced, the tendering and procurement systems in Mauritius are not conducive enough to allow for effective strategic planning and an equitable allocation of projects during an economic downturn so that the broadest spread of stakeholders’ benefit. It is of utmost importance that all sector and government entities collaborate to formulate strategies and reforms on tender processes and capacity building to ensure fairness and continuous growth of this sector in Mauritius.

Keywords: Construction industry, tender process, international firms, local capacity, Mauritius.

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