Search results for: weights of decision makers

Authors: Latif Yanar, Muammer Kaçan

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Decision support systems are getting more important in many fields of science and technology and used effectively especially when the problems to be solved are complicated with many criteria. In this kind of problems one of the main challenges for the decision makers are that sometimes they cannot produce a countable data for evaluating the criteria but the knowledge and sense of experts. In recent years, fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic based decision models gaining more place in literature. In this study, a decision support model to determine a country to build naval base is proposed and the application of the model is performed, considering Turkish Navy by the evaluations of Turkish Navy officers and academicians of international relations departments of various Universities located in Istanbul. The results achieved from the evaluations made by the experts in our model are calculated by a decision support tool named DESTEC 1.0, which is developed by the authors using C Sharp programming language. The tool gives advices to the decision maker using Analytic Hierarchy Process, Analytic Network Process, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Analytic Network Process all at once. The calculated results for five foreign countries are shown in the conclusion.

Keywords: decision support system, analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, analytic network process, fuzzy analytic network process, naval base, country selection, international relations

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Authors: Dana R. Thomson, Catherine Linard, Sabine Vanhuysse, Jessica E. Steele, Michal Shimoni, Jose Siri, Waleska Caiaffa, Megumi Rosenberg, Eleonore Wolff, Tais Grippa, Stefanos Georganos, Helen Elsey

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The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Urban Health Equity Assessment and Response Tool (Urban HEART) identify dozens of key indicators to help local decision-makers prioritize and track inequalities in health outcomes. However, presentations and discussions at the International Conference on Urban Health (ICUH) 2017 suggested that additional indicators are needed to make decisions and policies. A local decision-maker may realize that malaria or road accidents are a top priority. However, s/he needs additional health determinant indicators, for example about standing water or traffic, to address the priority and reduce inequalities. Health determinants reflect the physical and social environments that influence health outcomes often at community- and societal-levels and include such indicators as access to quality health facilities, access to safe parks, traffic density, location of slum areas, air pollution, social exclusion, and social networks. Indicator identification and disaggregation are necessarily constrained by available datasets – typically collected about households and individuals in surveys, censuses, and administrative records. Continued advancements in earth observation, data storage, computing and mobile technologies mean that new sources of health determinants indicators derived from 'big data' are becoming available at fine geographic scale. Big data includes high-resolution satellite imagery and aggregated, anonymized mobile phone data. While big data are themselves not representative of the population (e.g., satellite images depict the physical environment), they can provide information about population density, wealth, mobility, and social environments with tremendous detail and accuracy when combined with population-representative survey, census, administrative and health system data. The aim of this paper is to (1) flag to data scientists important indicators needed by health decision-makers at the city and sub-city scale - ideally free and publicly available, and (2) summarize for local decision-makers new datasets that can be generated from big data, with layperson descriptions of difficulties in generating them. We include SDGs and Urban HEART indicators, as well as indicators mentioned by decision-makers attending ICUH 2017.

Keywords: health determinant, health outcome, mobile phone, remote sensing, satellite imagery, SDG, urban HEART

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Authors: Helen Pushkarskaya, Michael Smithson, Jane E. Joseph, Christine Corbly, Ifat Levy

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Studies of decision making under uncertainty generally focus on imprecise information about outcome probabilities (“ambiguity”). It is not clear, however, whether conflicting information about outcome probabilities affects decision making in the same manner as ambiguity does. Here we combine functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) and a simple gamble design to study this question. In this design, the levels of ambiguity and conflict are parametrically varied, and ambiguity and conflict gambles are matched on both expected value and variance. Behaviorally, participants avoided conflict more than ambiguity, and attitudes toward ambiguity and conflict did not correlate across subjects. Neurally, regional brain activation was differentially modulated by ambiguity level and aversion to ambiguity and by conflict level and aversion to conflict. Activation in the medial prefrontal cortex was correlated with the level of ambiguity and with ambiguity aversion, whereas activation in the ventral striatum was correlated with the level of conflict and with conflict aversion. This novel double dissociation indicates that decision makers process imprecise and conflicting information differently, a finding that has important implications for basic and clinical research.

Keywords: decision making, uncertainty, ambiguity, conflict, fMRI

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki, Simoni K. Lintzerakou

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Air transport links markets and individuals, promoting social and economic development. The review of management direction towards social responsibility and especially for the enhancement of passengers with autism is the key objective of this paper. According to a top-down approach, the key dimensions that affect the basic principles and directions of airport enterprises management towards social responsibility for the case of passengers with autism are presented. Conventional wisdom is to present actions undertaken in improving accessibility for special population groups and highlight the social dimension in the management of transport hubs. The target is to focus on transport hubs serving special groups of passengers such as passengers with autism and highlight good practices and motivate transport infrastructure management authorities and decision makers to promote the social footprint of transport. The highlights and key findings are essential for managers and decision makers to support actions and plans towards management of airport enterprises towards social responsibility, focusing on the case of passengers traveling with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD).

Keywords: social responsibility, special groups, airport enterprises, AUTISM

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Authors: Alia Al Rayssi, Mahra Al Marar, Alyazia Alkhaili, Reem Al Dhaheri, Shayma Alkobaisi, Hoda Amer

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We present in this paper a web-based system called “HelpMeBreathe” for managing asthma. The proposed system provides analytical tools, which allow better understanding of environmental triggers of asthma, hence better support of data-driven decision making. The developed system provides warning messages to a specific asthma patient if the weather in his/her area might cause any difficulty in breathing or could trigger an asthma attack. HelpMeBreathe collects, stores, and analyzes individuals’ moving trajectories and health conditions as well as environmental data. It then processes and displays the patients’ data through an analytical tool that leads to an effective decision making by physicians and other decision makers.

Keywords: asthma, environmental triggers, map interface, web-based systems

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Authors: Rawan A. Abdelrazeq, Ahmed M. Khalafallah, Nabil A. Kartam

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Selection of competent contractors for construction projects is usually accomplished through competitive bidding or negotiated contracting in which the contract bid price is the basic criterion for selection. The evaluation of contractor’s safety performance is still not a typical criterion in the selection process, despite the existence of various safety prequalification procedures. There is a critical need for practical and automated systems that enable owners and decision makers to evaluate contractor safety performance, among other important contractor selection criteria. These systems should ultimately favor safety-conscious contractors to be selected by the virtue of their past good safety records and current safety programs. This paper presents an exploratory sequential mixed-methods approach to develop a framework for an automated decision support system that evaluates contractor safety performance based on a multitude of indicators and metrics that have been identified through a comprehensive review of construction safety research, and a survey distributed to domain experts. The framework is developed in three phases: (1) determining the indicators that depict contractor current and past safety performance; (2) soliciting input from construction safety experts regarding the identified indicators, their metrics, and relative significance; and (3) designing a decision support system using relational database models to integrate the identified indicators and metrics into a system that assesses and rates the safety performance of contractors. The proposed automated system is expected to hold several advantages including: (1) reducing the likelihood of selecting contractors with poor safety records; (2) enhancing the odds of completing the project safely; and (3) encouraging contractors to exert more efforts to improve their safety performance and practices in order to increase their bid winning opportunities which can lead to significant safety improvements in the construction industry. This should prove useful to decision makers and researchers, alike, and should help improve the safety record of the construction industry.

Keywords: construction safety, contractor selection, decision support system, relational database

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Authors: Agoston Restas

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Introduction: In case of managing disasters decision makers can face many times such a special situation where any pre-sign of the drastically change is missing therefore the improvised decision making can be required. The complexity, ambiguity, uncertainty or the volatility of the situation can require many times the improvisation as decision making. It can be taken at any level of the management (strategic, operational and tactical) but at tactical level the main reason of the improvisation is surely time pressure. It is certainly the biggest problem during the management. Methods: The author used different tools and methods to achieve his goals; one of them was the study of the relevant literature, the other one was his own experience as a firefighting manager. Other results come from two surveys that are referred to; one of them was an essay analysis, the second one was a word association test, specially created for the research. Results and discussion: This article proves that, in certain situations, the multi-criteria, evaluating decision-making processes simply cannot be used or only in a limited manner. However, it can be seen that managers, directors or commanders are many times in situations that simply cannot be ignored when making decisions which should be made in a short time. The functional background of decisions made in a short time, their mechanism, which is different from the conventional, was studied lately and this special decision procedure was given the name recognition-primed decision. In the article, author illustrates the limits of the possibilities of analytical decision-making, presents the general operating mechanism of recognition-primed decision-making, elaborates on its special model relevant to managers at tactical level, as well as explore and systemize the factors that facilitate (catalyze) the processes with an example with fire managers.

Keywords: decision making, disaster managers, recognition primed decision, model for making decisions in emergencies

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou

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The decades after the end of the second War provide evidence that infrastructures investments contibute to economic development, on terms of productivity and income growth. In order to force productivity and increase competitiveness the financing of large transport infrastructure projects are on the top of the agenda in strategic planning process. Such a decision may take form some days to some decades and stakeholders as well as decision makers need tools in order to estimate the economic impact on natioanl economy of such an investment. The key question in such decisions is if the effects caused by the new infrastructure could be able to boost economic development on one hand, and create new jobs and activities on the other. This paper deals with the review of estimation of the mega transport infrastructure projects economic effects in economy.

Keywords: economic impact, transport infrastructure, strategic planning, decision making

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Authors: Meghana Pandit, Abhishek Chakraborty

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There are a multitude of factors that influence the clinical success of bariatric surgery. This study seeks to determine the efficacy of preoperative weight management education. The Food and Fitness Program at Mount Sinai serves to educate patients on topics such as stress management, sleep habits, body image, nutrition, and exercise 5-6 months before their surgeries to slowly decrease their weight. Each month, patients are weighed, and a different topic is presented. To evaluate the longitudinal effects of these lectures, patient’s weights are evaluated at the first appointment, before an informative lecture is presented. Weights are then reevaluated at the last appointment before the surgery. The weights were statistically analyzed using a paired t-test and the results demonstrated a statistically significant difference (p < .0001, n=55). Thus, it is reasonable to conclude that the education paradigm employed successfully empowered patients to maintain and reduce their gross BMI before clinical intervention.

Keywords: bariatric, surgery, weight, education

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Authors: Avinash S. Jagtap, Sharad D. Gore, Rajendra G. Gurao

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Decision rules become more and more complex as the number of conditions increase. As a consequence, the complexity of the decision rule also influences the time complexity of computer implementation of such a rule. Consider, for example, a decision that depends on four conditions A, B, C and D. For simplicity, suppose each of these four conditions is binary. Even then the decision rule will consist of 16 lines, where each line will be of the form: If A and B and C and D, then action 1. If A and B and C but not D, then action 2 and so on. While executing this decision rule, each of the four conditions will be checked every time until all the four conditions in a line are satisfied. The minimum number of logical comparisons is 4 whereas the maximum number is 64. This paper proposes to present a complex decision rule in the form of a decision tree. A decision tree divides the cases into branches every time a condition is checked. In the form of a decision tree, every branching eliminates half of the cases that do not satisfy the related conditions. As a result, every branch of the decision tree involves only four logical comparisons and hence is significantly simpler than the corresponding complex decision rule. The conclusion of this paper is that every complex decision rule can be represented as a decision tree and the decision tree is mathematically equivalent but computationally much simpler than the original complex decision rule

Keywords: strategic, tactical, operational, adaptive, innovative

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Authors: Ph. Fauquet-Alekhine

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Decision-making occurs several times an hour when working in high risk industry and an erroneous choice might have undesirable outcomes for people and the environment surrounding the industrial plant. Industrial decisions are very often made in a context of acute stress. Time pressure is a crucial stressor leading decision makers sometimes to boost up the decision-making process and if it is not possible then shift to the simplest strategy. We thus found it interesting to update the characterization of the stress factors impairing decision-making at Chinon Nuclear Power Plant (France) in order to optimize decision making contexts and/or associated processes. The investigation was based on the analysis of reports addressing safety events over the last 3 years. Among 93 reports, those explicitly addressing decision-making issues were identified. Characterization of each event was undertaken in terms of three criteria: stressors, biases impairing decision making and weaknesses of the decision-making process. The statistical analysis showed that biases were distributed over 10 possibilities among which the hypothesis confirmation bias was clearly salient. No significant correlation was found between criteria. The analysis indicated that the main stressor was time pressure and highlights an unexpected form of stressor: the trust asymmetry principle of the expert. The analysis led to the conclusion that this stressor impaired decision-making from a psychological angle rather than from a physiological angle: it induces defensive bias of self-esteem, self-protection associated with a bias of confirmation. This leads to the hypothesis that this stressor can intervene in some cases without being detected, and to the hypothesis that other stressors of the same kind might occur without being detected too. Further investigations addressing these hypotheses are considered. The analysis also led to the conclusion that dealing with these issues implied i) decision-making methods being well known to the workers and automated and ii) the decision-making tools being well known and strictly applied. Training was thus adjusted.

Keywords: bias, expert, high risk industry, stress.

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Authors: D. Pérez, M. M. E. Alemany

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In this work a Framework to model the Supply Chain (SC) Collaborative Planning (CP) Process is proposed, and particularly its Decisional view. The main Framework contributions with regards to previous related works are the following, 1) the consideration of not only the Decision view, the most important one due to the Process type, but other additional three views which are the Physical, Organisation and Information ones, closely related and complementing the Decision View, 2) the joint consideration of two interdependence types, the Temporal (among Decision Centres belonging to different Decision Levels) and Spatial (among Decision Centres belonging to the same Decision Level) to support the distributed Decision-Making process in SC where several decision Centres interact among them in a collaborative manner.

Keywords: collaborative planning, decision view, distributed decision-making, framework

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Authors: Bright C. Opara, Gideon C. Uboegbulam

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This study can be appreciated from the significant role culture exert in purchase decision of durable goods the world over. This study is motivated by cultural diversity in Nigeria and socio-economic changes that have taken place in the recent times. These call for the validation of similarly studies in order to formulate informed marketing strategies that will enhance purchase behaviour. This study therefore, is set out to examine the cultural influence in family purchase decision-making for durable goods in the three major ethnic groups in Nigeria (Hausa, Ibo, and Yoruba). The primary data was sourced using structured and semi-structured research questionnaire, while the secondary information was generated from existing / available relevant literature journals / periodicals. A judgmental sampling technique was used to determine the sample size of 300 households. The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) statistical tool was used to test the hypotheses, with the aid of Statistical Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 17.0. The finding showed that cultural influence on the family Purchase Decision of Durable Goods does not significantly differ in three ethnic groups, and that family Purchase Decision Making for Durable Goods does not significantly differ in the three ethnic groups. We therefore, conclude that culture do not really impact significantly on the purchase behaviour of the three ethnic groups in the Nigeria as it does in some others. However, there is need for marketers and marketing decision makers not to generalise the findings of this study. This is because of the significant role culture play in purchase behaviour which differs from one culture or country to another.

Keywords: cultural, durable goods, influence, purchase decision

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Authors: Safieh Javadinejad

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In order to make well-informed decisions respecting long-term system planning, resource managers and policy creators necessitate to comprehend the interconnections among energy and water utilization and manufacture—and also the energy-water nexus. Planning and assessment issues contain the enhancement of strategies for declining the water and energy system’s vulnerabilities to climate alteration with also emissions of decreasing greenhouse gas. In order to deliver beneficial decision support for climate adjustment policy and planning, understanding the regionally-specific features of the energy-water nexus, and the history-future of the water and energy source systems serving is essential. It will be helpful for decision makers understand the nature of current water-energy system conditions and capacity for adaptation plans for future. This research shows an integrated hydrology/energy modeling platform which is able to extend water-energy examines based on a detailed illustration of local circumstances. The modeling links the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) and the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system to create full picture of water-energy processes. This will allow water managers and policy-decision makers to simply understand links between energy system improvements and hydrological processing and realize how future climate change will effect on water-energy systems. The Zayandeh Rud river basin in Iran is selected as a case study to show the results and application of the analysis. This region is known as an area with large integration of both the electric power and water sectors. The linkages between water, energy and climate change and possible adaptation strategies are described along with early insights from applications of the integration modeling system.

Keywords: climate impacts, hydrology, water systems, adaptation planning, electricity, integrated modeling

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Authors: Christoph Koester

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Supplier selection is one of the key issues in supply chain management with a growing emphasis on sustainability driven by increasing stakeholder expectations and proactivity. In addition, new regulations, such as the German Supply Chain Act, fostered the inclusion of sustainable incl. governance selection criteria in the selection process. In order to provide a systematic approach to select the most suitable sustainable suppliers, this study quantifies the importance and prioritizes the relevant selection criteria across 17 German industries using the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process. Results show that economic criteria are still the most important in the selection decision averaging a global weight of 51%. However, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria are combined, on average, almost equally important, with global weights of 22%, 16%, and 11%, respectively. While the type of industry influences criteria weights, other factors, such as type of purchasing or demographic factors, appear to have little impact.

Keywords: ESG, fuzzy analytical hierarchy process, sustainable supplier selection, sustainability

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Authors: Giuseppe Timperio, Robert de Souza

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Logistics operations in the context of disaster response are characterized by a high degree of complexity due to the combined effect of a large number of stakeholders involved, time pressure, uncertainties at various levels, massive deployment of goods and personnel, and gigantic financial flow to be managed. It also involves several autonomous parties such as government agencies, militaries, NGOs, UN agencies, private sector to name few, to have a highly collaborative approach especially in the critical phase of the immediate response. This is particularly true in the context of L3 emergencies that are the most severe, large-scale humanitarian crises. Decision-making processes in disaster management are thus extremely difficult due to the presence of multiple decision-makers involved, and the complexity of the tasks being tackled. Hence, in this paper, we look at applying ICT based solutions to enable a speedy and effective decision making in the golden window of humanitarian operations. A high-level view of ICT based solutions in the context of logistics operations for humanitarian response in Southeast Asia is presented, and their viability in a real-life case about logistics network design is explored.

Keywords: decision support, disaster preparedness, humanitarian logistics, network design

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Authors: Karam Al-Assaf, Israa Al Khaffaf, Ryan Al Tayeb, Ayman Alzaatreh

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A significant, manageable hazard to public health, happiness, and the achievement of sustainable development is air pollution. Outdoor air pollution has increased globally over the previous years, exposing billions of people worldwide to hazardous air. With UAE being no different, there are a variety of pollution-related problems that need to be addressed. Therefore, to gain insights from the government and decision makers, this study aims to analyze the annual trends of the five major air pollutants (NO2, SO2, O3, CO, and PM10) across five emirates in the UAE (Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, and Ras AL Khaimah) from 2013 to 2020. The results of the analysis revealed that air pollutants NO2, SO2, and PM10 were significantly different across the years and states. Moreover, it was found that the levels of NO2 are significantly different in Dubai across the years. Moreover, the levels of SO2 are significantly different in Sharjah across the years. Furthermore, it was found that PM10 was significantly different in Ajman across the years. Moreover, the analysis of the significant difference in the pollutants in the three areas (Downtown, Residential, Industrial) revealed that there is no significant difference in the pollutant levels across the years in the three different areas. This tool has shown its effectiveness in monitoring pollutant trends, providing valuable data for government investigations and control measures across the UAE. Additionally, it serves as a valuable resource for decision-makers to develop and implement policies aimed at improving pollutant levels.

Keywords: air pollution, air pollutant, repeated measures, MANOVA, UAE

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Authors: Mohammad Talebi

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Supply chain administration could be a concern for all the countries within the world, whereas there's no special approach towards supportability. Generally, for one decade, manufactured insights applications in keen supply chains have found a key part. In this paper, applications of artificial intelligence in supply chain management have been clarified, and towards Canadian plans for smart supply chain management (SCM), a few notes have been suggested. A hierarchical framework for smart SCM might provide a great roadmap for decision-makers to find the most appropriate approach toward smart SCM. Within the system of decision-making, all the levels included in the accomplishment of smart SCM are included. In any case, more considerations are got to be paid to available and needed infrastructures.

Keywords: smart SCM, AI, SSCM, procurement

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Authors: Serhat Tuzun, Tufan Demirel

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Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is the modelling of real-life to solve problems we encounter. It is a discipline that aids decision makers who are faced with conflicting alternatives to make an optimal decision. MCDM problems can be classified into two main categories: Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) and Multi-Objective Decision Making (MODM), based on the different purposes and different data types. Although various MADM techniques were developed for the problems encountered, their methodology is limited in modelling real-life. Moreover, objective results are hard to obtain, and the findings are generally derived from subjective data. Although, new and modified techniques are developed by presenting new approaches such as fuzzy logic; comprehensive techniques, even though they are better in modelling real-life, could not find a place in real world applications for being hard to apply due to its complex structure. These constraints restrict the development of MADM. This study aims to conduct a comprehensive analysis of preference methods in MADM and propose an approach based on information. For this purpose, a detailed literature review has been conducted, current approaches with their advantages and disadvantages have been analyzed. Then, the approach has been introduced. In this approach, performance values of the criteria are calculated in two steps: first by determining the distribution of each attribute and standardizing them, then calculating the information of each attribute as informational energy.

Keywords: literature review, multi-attribute decision making, operations research, preference method, informational energy

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Authors: Nastaran Hajiheydari, Mohammad Soltani Delgosha

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Vendor (supplier) selection is a group decision-making (GDM) process, in which, based on some predetermined criteria, the experts’ preferences are provided in order to rank and choose the most desirable suppliers. In the real business environment, our attitudes or our choices would be made in an uncertain and indecisive situation could not be expressed in a crisp framework. Intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs) could handle such situations in the best way. VIKOR method was developed to solve multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems. This method, which is used to determine the compromised feasible solution with respect to the conflicting criteria, introduces a multi-criteria ranking index based on the particular measure of 'closeness' to the 'ideal solution'. Until now, there has been a little investigation of VIKOR with IFS, therefore we extended the intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) VIKOR to solve vendor selection problem under IF GDM environment. The present study intends to develop an IF VIKOR method in a GDM situation. Therefore, a model is presented to calculate the criterion weights based on entropy measure. Then, the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy weighted geometric (IFWG) operator utilized to obtain the total decision matrix. In the next stage, an approach based on the positive idle intuitionistic fuzzy number (PIIFN) and negative idle intuitionistic fuzzy number (NIIFN) was developed. Finally, the application of the proposed method to solve a vendor selection problem illustrated.

Keywords: group decision making, intuitionistic fuzzy set, intuitionistic fuzzy entropy measure, vendor selection, VIKOR

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Authors: Giuseppe Timperio, Robert De Souza

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The combination of factors such as temperamental climate change, rampant urbanization of risk exposed areas, political and social instabilities, is posing an alarming base for the further growth of number and magnitude of humanitarian crises worldwide. Given the unique features of humanitarian supply chain such as unpredictability of demand in space, time, and geography, spike in the number of requests for relief items in the first days after the calamity, uncertain state of logistics infrastructures, large volumes of unsolicited low-priority items, a proactive approach towards design of disaster response operations is needed to achieve high agility in mobilization of emergency supplies in the immediate aftermath of the event. This paper is an attempt in that direction, and it provides decision makers with crucial strategic insights for a more effective network design for disaster response. Decision sciences and ICT are integrated to analyse the robustness and resilience of a prepositioned network of emergency strategic stockpiles for a real-life case about Indonesia, one of the most vulnerable countries in Asia-Pacific, with the model being built upon a rich set of quantitative data. At this aim, a network optimization approach was implemented, with several what-if scenarios being accurately developed and tested. Findings of this study are able to support decision makers facing challenges related with disaster relief chains resilience, particularly about optimal configuration of supply chain facilities and optimal flows across the nodes, while considering the network structure from an end-to-end in-country distribution perspective.

Keywords: disaster preparedness, humanitarian logistics, network optimization, resilience

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Authors: Symbat Moldabekova

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This research explores the practice of decision-making in commercial banks in Kazakhstan. It focuses on recent technologies, such as contactless payments and QR code, and uses interviews with bank executives and industry practitioners to gain an understanding of how decisions are made and the role of financial assessment methods. The aim of the research is (1) to study the importance of financial techniques to evaluate IT investments; (2) to understand the role of different expert groups; (3) to explore how market trends and industry features affect decisions on IT; (4) to build a model that defines the real practice of decision-making on IT in commercial banks in Kazakhstan. The theoretical framework suggests that decision-making on IT is a socially constructed process, where actor groups with different background interact and negotiate with each other to develop a shared understanding of IT and to make more effective decisions. Theory and observations suggest that the more parties involved in the process of decision-making, the higher the possibility of disagreements between them. As each actor group has their views on the rational decision on an IT project, it is worth exploring how the final decision is made in practice. Initial findings show that the financial assessment methods are used as a guideline and do not play a big role in the final decision. The commercial banks of Kazakhstan tend to study experience of neighboring countries before adopting innovation. Implementing contactless payments is widely regarded as pinnacle success factor due to increasing competition in the market. First-to-market innovations are considered as priorities therefore, such decisions can be made with exemption of some certain actor groups from the process. Customers play significant role and they participate in testing demo versions of the products before bringing innovation to the market. The study will identify the viewpoints of actors in the banking sector on a rational decision, and the ways decision-makers from a variety of disciplines interact with each other in order to make a decision on IT in retail banks.

Keywords: actor groups, decision making, technology investment, retail banks

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Authors: Rujia Chen, Ajit Narayanan

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Convolutional neural networks (CNN), as typically applied in deep learning, use layer-wise backpropagation (BP) to construct filters and kernels for feature extraction. Such filters are 2D or 3D groups of weights for constructing feature maps at subsequent layers of the CNN and are shared across the entire input. BP as a gradient descent algorithm has well-known problems of getting stuck at local optima. The use of genetic algorithms (GAs) for evolving weights between layers of standard artificial neural networks (ANNs) is a well-established area of neuroevolution. In particular, the use of crossover techniques when optimizing weights can help to overcome problems of local optima. However, the application of GAs for evolving the weights of filters and kernels in CNNs is not yet an established area of neuroevolution. In this paper, a GA-based filter development algorithm is proposed. The results of the proof-of-concept experiments described in this paper show the proposed GA algorithm can find filter weights through evolutionary techniques rather than BP learning. For some simple classification tasks like geometric shape recognition, the proposed algorithm can achieve 100% accuracy. The results for MNIST classification, while not as good as possible through standard filter learning through BP, show that filter and kernel evolution warrants further investigation as a new subarea of neuroevolution for deep architectures.

Keywords: neuroevolution, convolutional neural network, genetic algorithm, filters, kernels

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Authors: Reyhaneh Saeedi, Nima Ghasemloo

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Iran is a capable zone for earthquake that follows loss of lives and financial damages. To have sheltering for earthquake victims is one of the basic requirements although it is hard to select suitable places for temporary resettling after an earthquake happens. Before these kinds of disasters happen, the best places for resettling the victims must be designated. This matter is an important issue in disaster management and planning. Geospatial Information System (GIS) has a determining role in disaster management; it can determine the best places for temporary resettling after such a disaster. In this paper the best criteria have been determined associated with their weights and buffers by use of research and questionnaire for locating the best places. In this paper, AHP method is used as decision model and to locate the best places for temporary resettling is done based on the selected criteria. Also in this research are made the buffer layers of criteria and change them to the raster layers. Later on, the raster layers are multiplied on desired weights then, the results are added together. Finally there are suitable places for resettling of victims by desired criteria by different colors with their optimum rate in QGIS software.

Keywords: disaster management, temporary resettlement, earthquake, criteria

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Authors: Ayham Fattoum, Simos Chari, Duncan Shaw

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Volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) conditions threaten systems viability with emerging and novel events requiring immediate and localized responses. Such responsiveness is only possible through devolved freedom and emancipated decision-making. The Viable System Model (VSM) recognizes the need and suggests maximizing autonomy to localize decision-making and minimize residual complexity. However, exercising delegated autonomy in VUCA requires confidence and knowledge to use intuition and guidance to maintain systemic coherence. This paper explores the role of intuition as an enabler of emancipated decision-making and autonomy under VUCA. Intuition allows decision-makers to use their knowledge and experience to respond rapidly to novel events. This paper offers three contributions to VSM. First, it designs a system model that illustrates the role of intuitive decision-making in managing complexity and maintaining viability. Second, it takes a black-box approach to theory development in VSM to model the role of autonomy and intuition. Third, the study uses a multi-stage discovery-oriented approach (DOA) to develop theory, with each stage combining literature, data analysis, and model/theory development and identifying further questions for the subsequent stage. We synthesize literature (e.g., VSM, complexity management) with seven months of field-based insights (interviews, workshops, and observation of a live disaster exercise) to develop a framework of intuitive complexity management framework and VSM models. The results have practical implications for enhancing the resilience of organizations and communities.

Keywords: Intuition, complexity management, decision-making, viable system model

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Authors: A. Assad, T. Zayed

Abstract:

Water networks (WNs) are responsible of providing adequate amounts of safe, high quality, water to the public. As other critical infrastructure systems, WNs are subjected to deterioration which increases the number of breaks and leaks and lower water quality. In Canada, 35% of water assets require critical attention and there is a significant gap between the needed and the implemented investments. Thus, the need for efficient rehabilitation programs is becoming more urgent given the paradigm of aging infrastructure and tight budget. The first step towards developing such programs is to formulate a Performance Index that reflects the current condition of water assets along with its criticality. While numerous studies in the literature have focused on various aspects of condition assessment and reliability, limited efforts have investigated the criticality of such components. Critical water mains are those whose failure cause significant economic, environmental or social impacts on a community. Inclusion of criticality in computing the performance index will serve as a prioritizing tool for the optimum allocating of the available resources and budget. In this study, several social, economic, and environmental factors that dictate the criticality of a water pipelines have been elicited from analyzing the literature. Expert opinions were sought to provide pairwise comparisons of the importance of such factors. Subsequently, Fuzzy Logic along with Analytical Network Process (ANP) was utilized to calculate the weights of several criteria factors. Multi Attribute Utility Theories (MAUT) was then employed to integrate the aforementioned weights with the attribute values of several pipelines in Montreal WN. The result is a criticality index, 0-1, that quantifies the severity of the consequence of failure of each pipeline. A novel contribution of this approach is that it accounts for both the interdependency between criteria factors as well as the inherited uncertainties in calculating the criticality. The practical value of the current study is represented by the automated tool, Excel-MATLAB, which can be used by the utility managers and decision makers in planning for future maintenance and rehabilitation activities where high-level efficiency in use of materials and time resources is required.

Keywords: water networks, criticality assessment, asset management, fuzzy analytical network process

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Authors: Khalid Kaddoura, Tarek Zayed

Abstract:

Sewer networks are constructed to protect the communities and the environment from any contact with the sewer mediums. Pipelines, being laterals or sewer mains, and manholes form the huge underground infrastructure in every urban city. Due to the sewer networks importance, the infrastructure asset management field has extensive advancement in condition assessment and rehabilitation decision models. However, most of the focus was devoted to pipelines giving little attention toward manholes condition assessment. In fact, recent studies started to emerge in this area to preserve manholes from any malfunction. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to propose a condition assessment model for sewer manholes. The model divides the manhole into several components and determines the relative importance weight of each component using the Analytic Network Process (ANP) decision-making method. Later, the condition of the manhole is computed by aggregating the condition of each component with its corresponding weight. Accordingly, the proposed assessment model will enable decision-makers to have a final index suggesting the overall condition of the manhole and a backward analysis to check the condition of each component. Consequently, better decisions are made pertinent to maintenance, rehabilitation, and replacement actions.

Keywords: Analytic Network Process (ANP), condition assessment, decision-making, manholes

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Authors: Reyhaneh Saeedi

Abstract:

Iran is a capable zone for the earthquake that follows the loss of lives and financial damages. To have sheltering for earthquake victims is one of the basic requirements although it is hard to select suitable places for temporary resettling after an earthquake happens. Before these kinds of disasters happen, the best places for resettling the victims must be designated. This matter is an important issue in disaster management and planning. Geospatial Information System(GIS) has a determining role in disaster management, it can determine the best places for temporary resettling after such a disaster. In this paper, the best criteria have been determined associated with their weights and buffers by use of research and questionnaire for locating the best places. In this paper, AHP method is used as decision model and to locate the best places for temporary resettling is done based on the selected criteria. Also, in this research are made the buffer layers of criteria and change them to the raster layers. Later on, the raster layers are multiplied on desired weights then, the results are added together. Finally, there are suitable places for resettling of victims by desired criteria by different colors with their optimum rate in ArcGIS software.

Keywords: disaster management, temporary resettlement, earthquake, criteria

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Authors: Yi-Hsien Wang, Fu-Ju Yang, Hwa-Rong Shen, Rui-Lin Tseng

Abstract:

The business is notably related to the market risk according to the increase of liberalization of financial markets. Hence, the company usually utilized high financial leverage of derivatives to hedge the risk. When the company choose different hedging instruments to face a variety of exchange rate risk, we employ the Multinomial Logistic-AHP to analyze the impact of various derivatives. Hence, the research summarized the literature on relevant factors affecting managers selected exchange rate hedging instruments, using Multinomial Logistic Model and and further integrate AHP. Using Experts’ Questionnaires can test multi-level selection and hedging effect of different hedging instruments in order to calculate the hedging instruments and the multi-level factors of weights to understand the gap between the empirical results and practical operation. Finally, the Multinomial Logistic-AHP Model will sort the weights to analyze. The research findings can be a basis reference for investors in decision-making.

Keywords: exchange rate risk, derivatives, hedge, multinomial logistic-AHP

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Authors: Ayat-Allah Bouramdane

Abstract:

Solar Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) do not burn fossil fuels and, therefore, could meet the world's needs for low-carbon power generation as they do not release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere as they generate electricity. The power output of the solar PV module and CSP collector is proportional to the temperature and the amount of solar radiation received by their surface. Hence, the determination of the most convenient locations of PV and CSP systems is crucial to maximizing their output power. This study aims to provide a hands-on and plausible approach to the multi-criteria evaluation of site suitability of PV and CSP plants using a combination of Geographic Referenced Information (GRI) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Applying the GRI-based AHP approach is meant to specify the criteria and sub-criteria, to identify the unsuitable areas, the low-, moderate-, high- and very high suitable areas for each layer of GRI, to perform the pairwise comparison matrix at each level of the hierarchy structure based on experts' knowledge, and calculate the weights using AHP to create the final map of solar PV and CSP plants suitability in Morocco with a particular focus on the Dakhla city. The results recognize that solar irradiation is the main decision factor for the integration of these technologies on energy policy goals of Morocco but explicitly account for other factors that cannot only limit the potential of certain locations but can even exclude the Dakhla city classified as unsuitable area. We discuss the sensitivity of the PV and CSP site suitability to different aspects, such as the methodology, the climate conditions, and the technology used in each source, and provide the final recommendations to the Moroccan energy strategy by analyzing if actual Morocco's PV and CSP installations are located within areas deemed suitable and by discussing several cases to provide mutual benefits across the Food-Energy-Water nexus. The adapted methodology and conducted suitability map could be used by researchers or engineers to provide helpful information for decision-makers in terms of sites selection, design, and planning of future solar plants, especially in areas suffering from energy shortages, such as the Dakhla city, which is now one of Africa's most promising investment hubs and it is especially attractive to investors looking to root their operations in Africa and import to European markets.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, concentrated solar power, dakhla, geographic referenced information, Morocco, multi-criteria decision-making, photovoltaic, site suitability

Procedia PDF Downloads 128