Search results for: variational Bayesian approximation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 848

Search results for: variational Bayesian approximation

788 Detection of Change Points in Earthquakes Data: A Bayesian Approach

Authors: F. A. Al-Awadhi, D. Al-Hulail

Abstract:

In this study, we applied the Bayesian hierarchical model to detect single and multiple change points for daily earthquake body wave magnitude. The change point analysis is used in both backward (off-line) and forward (on-line) statistical research. In this study, it is used with the backward approach. Different types of change parameters are considered (mean, variance or both). The posterior model and the conditional distributions for single and multiple change points are derived and implemented using BUGS software. The model is applicable for any set of data. The sensitivity of the model is tested using different prior and likelihood functions. Using Mb data, we concluded that during January 2002 and December 2003, three changes occurred in the mean magnitude of Mb in Kuwait and its vicinity.

Keywords: multiple change points, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, earthquake magnitude, hierarchical Bayesian mode

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787 Improved Dynamic Bayesian Networks Applied to Arabic On Line Characters Recognition

Authors: Redouane Tlemsani, Abdelkader Benyettou

Abstract:

Work is in on line Arabic character recognition and the principal motivation is to study the Arab manuscript with on line technology. This system is a Markovian system, which one can see as like a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN). One of the major interests of these systems resides in the complete models training (topology and parameters) starting from training data. Our approach is based on the dynamic Bayesian Networks formalism. The DBNs theory is a Bayesians networks generalization to the dynamic processes. Among our objective, amounts finding better parameters, which represent the links (dependences) between dynamic network variables. In applications in pattern recognition, one will carry out the fixing of the structure, which obliges us to admit some strong assumptions (for example independence between some variables). Our application will relate to the Arabic isolated characters on line recognition using our laboratory database: NOUN. A neural tester proposed for DBN external optimization. The DBN scores and DBN mixed are respectively 70.24% and 62.50%, which lets predict their further development; other approaches taking account time were considered and implemented until obtaining a significant recognition rate 94.79%.

Keywords: Arabic on line character recognition, dynamic Bayesian network, pattern recognition, computer vision

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786 Intelligent Computing with Bayesian Regularization Artificial Neural Networks for a Nonlinear System of COVID-19 Epidemic Model for Future Generation Disease Control

Authors: Tahir Nawaz Cheema, Dumitru Baleanu, Ali Raza

Abstract:

In this research work, we design intelligent computing through Bayesian Regularization artificial neural networks (BRANNs) introduced to solve the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases (Covid-19). The dynamical transmission is due to the interaction of people and its mathematical representation based on the system's nonlinear differential equations. The generation of the dataset of the Covid-19 model is exploited by the power of the explicit Runge Kutta method for different countries of the world like India, Pakistan, Italy, and many more. The generated dataset is approximately used for training, testing, and validation processes for every frequent update in Bayesian Regularization backpropagation for numerical behavior of the dynamics of the Covid-19 model. The performance and effectiveness of designed methodology BRANNs are checked through mean squared error, error histograms, numerical solutions, absolute error, and regression analysis.

Keywords: mathematical models, beysian regularization, bayesian-regularization backpropagation networks, regression analysis, numerical computing

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785 Bayesian Semiparametric Geoadditive Modelling of Underweight Malnutrition of Children under 5 Years in Ethiopia

Authors: Endeshaw Assefa Derso, Maria Gabriella Campolo, Angela Alibrandi

Abstract:

Objectives:Early childhood malnutrition can have long-term and irreversible effects on a child's health and development. This study uses the Bayesian method with spatial variation to investigate the flexible trends of metrical covariates and to identify communities at high risk of injury. Methods: Cross-sectional data on underweight are collected from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). The Bayesian geo-additive model is performed. Appropriate prior distributions were provided for scall parameters in the models, and the inference is entirely Bayesian, using Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) stimulation. Results: The results show that metrical covariates like child age, maternal body mass index (BMI), and maternal age affect a child's underweight non-linearly. Lower and higher maternal BMI seem to have a significant impact on the child’s high underweight. There was also a significant spatial heterogeneity, and based on IDW interpolation of predictive values, the western, central, and eastern parts of the country are hotspot areas. Conclusion: Socio-demographic and community- based programs development should be considered compressively in Ethiopian policy to combat childhood underweight malnutrition.

Keywords: bayesX, Ethiopia, malnutrition, MCMC, semi-parametric bayesian analysis, spatial distribution, P- splines

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784 An Optimal Bayesian Maintenance Policy for a Partially Observable System Subject to Two Failure Modes

Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis, Leila Jafari

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a new maintenance model for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model. A cost-optimal Bayesian control policy is developed for maintaining the system. The control problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm is developed and illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, multivariate Bayesian control

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783 Employing Bayesian Artificial Neural Network for Evaluation of Cold Rolling Force

Authors: P. Kooche Baghy, S. Eskandari, E.javanmard

Abstract:

Neural network has been used as a predictive means of cold rolling force in this dissertation. Thus, imposed average force on rollers as a mere input and five pertaining parameters to its as a outputs are regarded. According to our study, feed-forward multilayer perceptron network has been selected. Besides, Bayesian algorithm based on the feed-forward back propagation method has been selected due to noisy data. Further, 470 out of 585 all tests were used for network learning and others (115 tests) were considered as assessment criteria. Eventually, by 30 times running the MATLAB software, mean error was obtained 3.84 percent as a criteria of network learning. As a consequence, this the mentioned error on par with other approaches such as numerical and empirical methods is acceptable admittedly.

Keywords: artificial neural network, Bayesian, cold rolling, force evaluation

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782 Degree of Approximation of Functions Conjugate to Periodic Functions Belonging to Lipschitz Classes by Product Matrix Means

Authors: Smita Sonker

Abstract:

Various investigators have determined the degree of approximation of conjugate signals (functions) of functions belonging to different classes Lipα, Lip(α,p), Lip(ξ(t),p), W(Lr,ξ(t), (β ≥ 0)) by matrix summability means, lower triangular matrix operator, product means (i.e. (C,1)(E,1), (C,1)(E,q), (E,q)(C,1) (N,p,q)(E,1), and (E,q)(N,pn) of their conjugate trigonometric Fourier series. In this paper, we shall determine the degree of approximation of 2π-periodic function conjugate functions of f belonging to the function classes Lipα and W(Lr; ξ(t); (β ≥ 0)) by (C1.T) -means of their conjugate trigonometric Fourier series. On the other hand, we shall review above-mentioned work in the light of Lenski.

Keywords: signals, trigonometric fourier approximation, class W(L^r, \xi(t), conjugate fourier series

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781 Orthogonal Basis Extreme Learning Algorithm and Function Approximation

Authors: Ying Li, Yan Li

Abstract:

A new algorithm for single hidden layer feedforward neural networks (SLFN), Orthogonal Basis Extreme Learning (OBEL) algorithm, is proposed and the algorithm derivation is given in the paper. The algorithm can decide both the NNs parameters and the neuron number of hidden layer(s) during training while providing extreme fast learning speed. It will provide a practical way to develop NNs. The simulation results of function approximation showed that the algorithm is effective and feasible with good accuracy and adaptability.

Keywords: neural network, orthogonal basis extreme learning, function approximation

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780 Simulating the Hot Hand Phenomenon in Basketball with Bayesian Hidden Markov Models

Authors: Gabriel Calvo, Carmen Armero, Luigi Spezia

Abstract:

A basketball player is said to have a hot hand if his/her performance is better than expected in different periods of time. A way to deal with this phenomenon is to make use of latent variables, which can indicate whether the player is ‘on fire’ or not. This work aims to model the hot hand phenomenon through a Bayesian hidden Markov model (HMM) with two states (cold and hot) and two different probability of success depending on the corresponding hidden state. This task is illustrated through a comprehensive simulation study. The simulated data sets emulate the field goal attempts in an NBA season from different profile players. This model can be a powerful tool to assess the ‘streakiness’ of each player, and it provides information about the general performance of the players during the match. Finally, the Bayesian HMM allows computing the posterior probability of any type of streak.

Keywords: Bernoulli trials, field goals, latent variables, posterior distribution

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779 Bayesian Optimization for Reaction Parameter Tuning: An Exploratory Study of Parameter Optimization in Oxidative Desulfurization of Thiophene

Authors: Aman Sharma, Sonali Sengupta

Abstract:

The study explores the utility of Bayesian optimization in tuning the physical and chemical parameters of reactions in an offline experimental setup. A comparative analysis of the influence of the acquisition function on the optimization performance is also studied. For proxy first and second-order reactions, the results are indifferent to the acquisition function used, whereas, while studying the parameters for oxidative desulphurization of thiophene in an offline setup, upper confidence bound (UCB) provides faster convergence along with a marginal trade-off in the maximum conversion achieved. The work also demarcates the critical number of independent parameters and input observations required for both sequential and offline reaction setups to yield tangible results.

Keywords: acquisition function, Bayesian optimization, desulfurization, kinetics, thiophene

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778 A Study on the Solutions of the 2-Dimensional and Forth-Order Partial Differential Equations

Authors: O. Acan, Y. Keskin

Abstract:

In this study, we will carry out a comparative study between the reduced differential transform method, the adomian decomposition method, the variational iteration method and the homotopy analysis method. These methods are used in many fields of engineering. This is been achieved by handling a kind of 2-Dimensional and forth-order partial differential equations called the Kuramoto–Sivashinsky equations. Three numerical examples have also been carried out to validate and demonstrate efficiency of the four methods. Furthermost, it is shown that the reduced differential transform method has advantage over other methods. This method is very effective and simple and could be applied for nonlinear problems which used in engineering.

Keywords: reduced differential transform method, adomian decomposition method, variational iteration method, homotopy analysis method

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777 Variational Explanation Generator: Generating Explanation for Natural Language Inference Using Variational Auto-Encoder

Authors: Zhen Cheng, Xinyu Dai, Shujian Huang, Jiajun Chen

Abstract:

Recently, explanatory natural language inference has attracted much attention for the interpretability of logic relationship prediction, which is also known as explanation generation for Natural Language Inference (NLI). Existing explanation generators based on discriminative Encoder-Decoder architecture have achieved noticeable results. However, we find that these discriminative generators usually generate explanations with correct evidence but incorrect logic semantic. It is due to that logic information is implicitly encoded in the premise-hypothesis pairs and difficult to model. Actually, logic information identically exists between premise-hypothesis pair and explanation. And it is easy to extract logic information that is explicitly contained in the target explanation. Hence we assume that there exists a latent space of logic information while generating explanations. Specifically, we propose a generative model called Variational Explanation Generator (VariationalEG) with a latent variable to model this space. Training with the guide of explicit logic information in target explanations, latent variable in VariationalEG could capture the implicit logic information in premise-hypothesis pairs effectively. Additionally, to tackle the problem of posterior collapse while training VariaztionalEG, we propose a simple yet effective approach called Logic Supervision on the latent variable to force it to encode logic information. Experiments on explanation generation benchmark—explanation-Stanford Natural Language Inference (e-SNLI) demonstrate that the proposed VariationalEG achieves significant improvement compared to previous studies and yields a state-of-the-art result. Furthermore, we perform the analysis of generated explanations to demonstrate the effect of the latent variable.

Keywords: natural language inference, explanation generation, variational auto-encoder, generative model

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776 Bayesian Inference for High Dimensional Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Models

Authors: Sofia M. Karadimitriou, Kostas Triantafyllopoulos, Timothy Heaton

Abstract:

Reduced dimension Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Models (DSTMs) jointly describe the spatial and temporal evolution of a function observed subject to noise. A basic state space model is adopted for the discrete temporal variation, while a continuous autoregressive structure describes the continuous spatial evolution. Application of such a DSTM relies upon the pre-selection of a suitable reduced set of basic functions and this can present a challenge in practice. In this talk, we propose an online estimation method for high dimensional spatio-temporal data based upon DSTM and we attempt to resolve this issue by allowing the basis to adapt to the observed data. Specifically, we present a wavelet decomposition in order to obtain a parsimonious approximation of the spatial continuous process. This parsimony can be achieved by placing a Laplace prior distribution on the wavelet coefficients. The aim of using the Laplace prior, is to filter wavelet coefficients with low contribution, and thus achieve the dimension reduction with significant computation savings. We then propose a Hierarchical Bayesian State Space model, for the estimation of which we offer an appropriate particle filter algorithm. The proposed methodology is illustrated using real environmental data.

Keywords: multidimensional Laplace prior, particle filtering, spatio-temporal modelling, wavelets

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775 Structural and Electronic Properties of the Rock-salt BaxSr1−xS Alloys

Authors: B. Bahloul, K. Babesse, A. Dkhira, Y. Bahloul, L. Amirouche

Abstract:

Structural and electronic properties of the rock-salt BaxSr1−xS are calculated using the first-principles calculations based on the density functional theory (DFT) within the generalized gradient approximation (GGA), the local density approximation (LDA) and the virtual-crystal approximation (VCA). The calculated lattice parameters at equilibrium volume for x=0 and x=1 are in good agreement with the literature data. The BaxSr1−xS alloys are found to be an indirect band gap semiconductor. Moreoever, for the composition (x) ranging between [0-1], we think that our results are well discussed and well predicted.

Keywords: semiconductor, Ab initio calculations, rocksalt, band structure, BaxSr1−xS

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774 An Optimized RDP Algorithm for Curve Approximation

Authors: Jean-Pierre Lomaliza, Kwang-Seok Moon, Hanhoon Park

Abstract:

It is well-known that Ramer Douglas Peucker (RDP) algorithm greatly depends on the method of choosing starting points. Therefore, this paper focuses on finding such starting points that will optimize the results of RDP algorithm. Specifically, this paper proposes a curve approximation algorithm that finds flat points, called essential points, of an input curve, divides the curve into corner-like sub-curves using the essential points, and applies the RDP algorithm to the sub-curves. The number of essential points play a role on optimizing the approximation results by balancing the degree of shape information loss and the amount of data reduction. Through experiments with curves of various types and complexities of shape, we compared the performance of the proposed algorithm with three other methods, i.e., the RDP algorithm itself and its variants. As a result, the proposed algorithm outperformed the others in term of maintaining the original shapes of the input curve, which is important in various applications like pattern recognition.

Keywords: curve approximation, essential point, RDP algorithm

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773 Polynomially Adjusted Bivariate Density Estimates Based on the Saddlepoint Approximation

Authors: S. B. Provost, Susan Sheng

Abstract:

An alternative bivariate density estimation methodology is introduced in this presentation. The proposed approach involves estimating the density function associated with the marginal distribution of each of the two variables by means of the saddlepoint approximation technique and applying a bivariate polynomial adjustment to the product of these density estimates. Since the saddlepoint approximation is utilized in the context of density estimation, such estimates are determined from empirical cumulant-generating functions. In the univariate case, the saddlepoint density estimate is itself adjusted by a polynomial. Given a set of observations, the coefficients of the polynomial adjustments are obtained from the sample moments. Several illustrative applications of the proposed methodology shall be presented. Since this approach relies essentially on a determinate number of sample moments, it is particularly well suited for modeling massive data sets.

Keywords: density estimation, empirical cumulant-generating function, moments, saddlepoint approximation

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772 Self-Action Effects of a Non-Gaussian Laser Beam Through Plasma

Authors: Sandeep Kumar, Naveen Gupta

Abstract:

The propagation of the Non-Gaussian laser beam results in strong self-focusing as compare to the Gaussian laser beam, which helps to achieve a prerequisite of the plasma-based electron, Terahertz generation, and higher harmonic generations. The theoretical investigation on the evolution of non-Gaussian laser beam through the collisional plasma with ramped density has been presented. The non-uniform irradiance over the cross-section of the laser beam results in redistribution of the carriers that modifies the optical response of the plasma in such a way that the plasma behaves like a converging lens to the laser beam. The formulation is based on finding a semi-analytical solution of the nonlinear Schrodinger wave equation (NLSE) with the help of variational theory. It has been observed that the decentred parameter ‘q’ of laser and wavenumber of ripples of medium contribute to providing the required conditions for the improvement of self-focusing.

Keywords: non-Gaussian beam, collisional plasma, variational theory, self-focusing

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771 Probabilistic Approach to Contrast Theoretical Predictions from a Public Corruption Game Using Bayesian Networks

Authors: Jaime E. Fernandez, Pablo J. Valverde

Abstract:

This paper presents a methodological approach that aims to contrast/validate theoretical results from a corruption network game through probabilistic analysis of simulated microdata using Bayesian Networks (BNs). The research develops a public corruption model in a game theory framework. Theoretical results suggest a series of 'optimal settings' of model's exogenous parameters that boost the emergence of corruption. The paper contrasts these outcomes with probabilistic inference results based on BNs adjusted over simulated microdata. Principal findings indicate that probabilistic reasoning based on BNs significantly improves parameter specification and causal analysis in a public corruption game.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, probabilistic reasoning, public corruption, theoretical games

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770 BART Matching Method: Using Bayesian Additive Regression Tree for Data Matching

Authors: Gianna Zou

Abstract:

Propensity score matching (PSM), introduced by Paul R. Rosenbaum and Donald Rubin in 1983, is a popular statistical matching technique which tries to estimate the treatment effects by taking into account covariates that could impact the efficacy of study medication in clinical trials. PSM can be used to reduce the bias due to confounding variables. However, PSM assumes that the response values are normally distributed. In some cases, this assumption may not be held. In this paper, a machine learning method - Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART), is used as a more robust method of matching. BART can work well when models are misspecified since it can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects. Moreover, it has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multiway interactions. In this research, a BART Matching Method (BMM) is proposed to provide a more reliable matching method over PSM. By comparing the analysis results from PSM and BMM, BMM can perform well and has better prediction capability when the response values are not normally distributed.

Keywords: BART, Bayesian, matching, regression

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769 A Safety Analysis Method for Multi-Agent Systems

Authors: Ching Louis Liu, Edmund Kazmierczak, Tim Miller

Abstract:

Safety analysis for multi-agent systems is complicated by the, potentially nonlinear, interactions between agents. This paper proposes a method for analyzing the safety of multi-agent systems by explicitly focusing on interactions and the accident data of systems that are similar in structure and function to the system being analyzed. The method creates a Bayesian network using the accident data from similar systems. A feature of our method is that the events in accident data are labeled with HAZOP guide words. Our method uses an Ontology to abstract away from the details of a multi-agent implementation. Using the ontology, our methods then constructs an “Interaction Map,” a graphical representation of the patterns of interactions between agents and other artifacts. Interaction maps combined with statistical data from accidents and the HAZOP classifications of events can be converted into a Bayesian Network. Bayesian networks allow designers to explore “what it” scenarios and make design trade-offs that maintain safety. We show how to use the Bayesian networks, and the interaction maps to improve multi-agent system designs.

Keywords: multi-agent system, safety analysis, safety model, integration map

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768 Constructing a Bayesian Network for Solar Energy in Egypt Using Life Cycle Analysis and Machine Learning Algorithms

Authors: Rawaa H. El-Bidweihy, Hisham M. Abdelsalam, Ihab A. El-Khodary

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In an era where machines run and shape our world, the need for a stable, non-ending source of energy emerges. In this study, the focus was on the solar energy in Egypt as a renewable source, the most important factors that could affect the solar energy’s market share throughout its life cycle production were analyzed and filtered, the relationships between them were derived before structuring a Bayesian network. Also, forecasted models were built for multiple factors to predict the states in Egypt by 2035, based on historical data and patterns, to be used as the nodes’ states in the network. 37 factors were found to might have an impact on the use of solar energy and then were deducted to 12 factors that were chosen to be the most effective to the solar energy’s life cycle in Egypt, based on surveying experts and data analysis, some of the factors were found to be recurring in multiple stages. The presented Bayesian network could be used later for scenario and decision analysis of using solar energy in Egypt, as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed.

Keywords: ARIMA, auto correlation, Bayesian network, forecasting models, life cycle, partial correlation, renewable energy, SARIMA, solar energy

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767 Solving Optimal Control of Semilinear Elliptic Variational Inequalities Obstacle Problems using Smoothing Functions

Authors: El Hassene Osmani, Mounir Haddou, Naceurdine Bensalem

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigate optimal control problems governed by semilinear elliptic variational inequalities involving constraints on the state, and more precisely, the obstacle problem. We present a relaxed formulation for the problem using smoothing functions. Since we adopt a numerical point of view, we first relax the feasible domain of the problem, then using both mathematical programming methods and penalization methods, we get optimality conditions with smooth Lagrange multipliers. Some numerical experiments using IPOPT algorithm (Interior Point Optimizer) are presented to verify the efficiency of our approach.

Keywords: complementarity problem, IPOPT, Lagrange multipliers, mathematical programming, optimal control, smoothing methods, variationally inequalities

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766 Networked Implementation of Milling Stability Optimization with Bayesian Learning

Authors: Christoph Ramsauer, Jaydeep Karandikar, Tony Schmitz, Friedrich Bleicher

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Machining stability is an important limitation to discrete part machining. In this work, a networked implementation of milling stability optimization with Bayesian learning is presented. The milling process was monitored with a wireless sensory tool holder instrumented with an accelerometer at the Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria. The recorded data from a milling test cut is used to classify the cut as stable or unstable based on the frequency analysis. The test cut result is fed to a Bayesian stability learning algorithm at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. The algorithm calculates the probability of stability as a function of axial depth of cut and spindle speed and recommends the parameters for the next test cut. The iterative process between two transatlantic locations repeats until convergence to a stable optimal process parameter set is achieved.

Keywords: machining stability, machine learning, sensor, optimization

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765 The Profit Trend of Cosmetics Products Using Bootstrap Edgeworth Approximation

Authors: Edlira Donefski, Lorenc Ekonomi, Tina Donefski

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Edgeworth approximation is one of the most important statistical methods that has a considered contribution in the reduction of the sum of standard deviation of the independent variables’ coefficients in a Quantile Regression Model. This model estimates the conditional median or other quantiles. In this paper, we have applied approximating statistical methods in an economical problem. We have created and generated a quantile regression model to see how the profit gained is connected with the realized sales of the cosmetic products in a real data, taken from a local business. The Linear Regression of the generated profit and the realized sales was not free of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity, so this is the reason that we have used this model instead of Linear Regression. Our aim is to analyze in more details the relation between the variables taken into study: the profit and the finalized sales and how to minimize the standard errors of the independent variable involved in this study, the level of realized sales. The statistical methods that we have applied in our work are Edgeworth Approximation for Independent and Identical distributed (IID) cases, Bootstrap version of the Model and the Edgeworth approximation for Bootstrap Quantile Regression Model. The graphics and the results that we have presented here identify the best approximating model of our study.

Keywords: bootstrap, edgeworth approximation, IID, quantile

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764 Forecasting Models for Steel Demand Uncertainty Using Bayesian Methods

Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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763 A Bayesian Parameter Identification Method for Thermorheological Complex Materials

Authors: Michael Anton Kraus, Miriam Schuster, Geralt Siebert, Jens Schneider

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Polymers increasingly gained interest in construction materials over the last years in civil engineering applications. As polymeric materials typically show time- and temperature dependent material behavior, which is accounted for in the context of the theory of linear viscoelasticity. Within the context of this paper, the authors show, that some polymeric interlayers for laminated glass can not be considered as thermorheologically simple as they do not follow a simple TTSP, thus a methodology of identifying the thermorheologically complex constitutive bahavioir is needed. ‘Dynamical-Mechanical-Thermal-Analysis’ (DMTA) in tensile and shear mode as well as ‘Differential Scanning Caliometry’ (DSC) tests are carried out on the interlayer material ‘Ethylene-vinyl acetate’ (EVA). A navoel Bayesian framework for the Master Curving Process as well as the detection and parameter identification of the TTSPs along with their associated Prony-series is derived and applied to the EVA material data. To our best knowledge, this is the first time, an uncertainty quantification of the Prony-series in a Bayesian context is shown. Within this paper, we could successfully apply the derived Bayesian methodology to the EVA material data to gather meaningful Master Curves and TTSPs. Uncertainties occurring in this process can be well quantified. We found, that EVA needs two TTSPs with two associated Generalized Maxwell Models. As the methodology is kept general, the derived framework could be also applied to other thermorheologically complex polymers for parameter identification purposes.

Keywords: bayesian parameter identification, generalized Maxwell model, linear viscoelasticity, thermorheological complex

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762 High Accuracy Analytic Approximation for Special Functions Applied to Bessel Functions J₀(x) and Its Zeros

Authors: Fernando Maass, Pablo Martin, Jorge Olivares

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The Bessel function J₀(x) is very important in Electrodynamics and Physics, as well as its zeros. In this work, a method to obtain high accuracy approximation is presented through an application to that function. In most of the applications of this function, the values of the zeros are very important. In this work, analytic approximations for this function have been obtained valid for all positive values of the variable x, which have high accuracy for the function as well as for the zeros. The approximation is determined by the simultaneous used of the power series and asymptotic expansion. The structure of the approximation is a combination of two rational functions with elementary functions as trigonometric and fractional powers. Here us in Pade method, rational functions are used, but now there combined with elementary functions us fractional powers hyperbolic or trigonometric functions, and others. The reason of this is that now power series of the exact function are used, but together with the asymptotic expansion, which usually includes fractional powers trigonometric functions and other type of elementary functions. The approximation must be a bridge between both expansions, and this can not be accomplished using only with rational functions. In the simplest approximation using 4 parameters the maximum absolute error is less than 0.006 at x ∼ 4.9. In this case also the maximum relative error for the zeros is less than 0.003 which is for the second zero, but that value decreases rapidly for the other zeros. The same kind of behaviour happens for the relative error of the maximum and minimum of the functions. Approximations with higher accuracy and more parameters will be also shown. All the approximations are valid for any positive value of x, and they can be calculated easily.

Keywords: analytic approximations, asymptotic approximations, Bessel functions, quasirational approximations

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761 Bayesian Prospective Detection of Small Area Health Anomalies Using Kullback Leibler Divergence

Authors: Chawarat Rotejanaprasert, Andrew Lawson

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Early detection of unusual health events depends on the ability to detect rapidly any substantial changes in disease, thus facilitating timely public health interventions. To assist public health practitioners to make decisions, statistical methods are adopted to assess unusual events in real time. We introduce a surveillance Kullback-Leibler (SKL) measure for timely detection of disease outbreaks for small area health data. The detection methods are compared with the surveillance conditional predictive ordinate (SCPO) within the framework of Bayesian hierarchical Poisson modeling and applied to a case study of a group of respiratory system diseases observed weekly in South Carolina counties. Properties of the proposed surveillance techniques including timeliness and detection precision are investigated using a simulation study.

Keywords: Bayesian, spatial, temporal, surveillance, prospective

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760 Improved Pitch Detection Using Fourier Approximation Method

Authors: Balachandra Kumaraswamy, P. G. Poonacha

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Automatic Music Information Retrieval has been one of the challenging topics of research for a few decades now with several interesting approaches reported in the literature. In this paper we have developed a pitch extraction method based on a finite Fourier series approximation to the given window of samples. We then estimate pitch as the fundamental period of the finite Fourier series approximation to the given window of samples. This method uses analysis of the strength of harmonics present in the signal to reduce octave as well as harmonic errors. The performance of our method is compared with three best known methods for pitch extraction, namely, Yin, Windowed Special Normalization of the Auto-Correlation Function and Harmonic Product Spectrum methods of pitch extraction. Our study with artificially created signals as well as music files show that Fourier Approximation method gives much better estimate of pitch with less octave and harmonic errors.

Keywords: pitch, fourier series, yin, normalization of the auto- correlation function, harmonic product, mean square error

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759 Particle Swarm Optimization and Quantum Particle Swarm Optimization to Multidimensional Function Approximation

Authors: Diogo Silva, Fadul Rodor, Carlos Moraes

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This work compares the results of multidimensional function approximation using two algorithms: the classical Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and the Quantum Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO). These algorithms were both tested on three functions - The Rosenbrock, the Rastrigin, and the sphere functions - with different characteristics by increasing their number of dimensions. As a result, this study shows that the higher the function space, i.e. the larger the function dimension, the more evident the advantages of using the QPSO method compared to the PSO method in terms of performance and number of necessary iterations to reach the stop criterion.

Keywords: PSO, QPSO, function approximation, AI, optimization, multidimensional functions

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