Search results for: validation study

Authors: Hany Elsaid Fawaz Abdallah

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This study presents a new artificial neural network(ANN) model to predict the Nusselt Number and pressure drop for the turbulent flow in a triangular corrugated plate heat exchanger for forced air and turbulent water flow. An experimental investigation was performed to create a new dataset for the Nusselt Number and pressure drop values in the following range of dimensionless parameters: The plate corrugation angles (from 0° to 60°), the Reynolds number (from 10000 to 40000), pitch to height ratio (from 1 to 4), and Prandtl number (from 0.7 to 200). Based on the ANN performance graph, the three-layer structure with {12-8-6} hidden neurons has been chosen. The training procedure includes back-propagation with the biases and weight adjustment, the evaluation of the loss function for the training and validation dataset and feed-forward propagation of the input parameters. The linear function was used at the output layer as the activation function, while for the hidden layers, the rectified linear unit activation function was utilized. In order to accelerate the ANN training, the loss function minimization may be achieved by the adaptive moment estimation algorithm (ADAM). The ‘‘MinMax’’ normalization approach was utilized to avoid the increase in the training time due to drastic differences in the loss function gradients with respect to the values of weights. Since the test dataset is not being used for the ANN training, a cross-validation technique is applied to the ANN network using the new data. Such procedure was repeated until loss function convergence was achieved or for 4000 epochs with a batch size of 200 points. The program code was written in Python 3.0 using open-source ANN libraries such as Scikit learn, TensorFlow and Keras libraries. The mean average percent error values of 9.4% for the Nusselt number and 8.2% for pressure drop for the ANN model have been achieved. Therefore, higher accuracy compared to the generalized correlations was achieved. The performance validation of the obtained model was based on a comparison of predicted data with the experimental results yielding excellent accuracy.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, corrugated channel, heat transfer enhancement, Nusselt number, pressure drop, generalized correlations

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Authors: Ivan Ashif Ardhana, Intan Mahanani

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Chemistry education tends to change from triplet representation among macroscopic, microscopic, and symbolic to tetrahedron shape. This change set the aspect of human element on the top of learning. Meaning that students are expected to solve the problems involving the ethic, morality, and humanity through the class. Ability to solve the problems connecting either theories or applications is called scientific literacy which have been implemented in curriculum 2013 implicitly. Scientific literacy has an aspect of nature science and critical thinking. Both can be integrated to learning using scientific approach and scientific inquiry. Unfortunately, students’ ability of scientific literacy in Indonesia is far from expectation. A survey from PISA had proven it. Scientific literacy of Indonesian students is always at bottom five position from 2002 till 2012. Improving a scientific literacy needs many efforts against them. Developing an instructional material based on scientific approach is one kind of that efforts. Instructional material contains both aspect of nature of science and critical thinking which is instructed explicitly to improve the students’ understanding about science. Developing goal is to produce a prototype and an instructional material using scientific approach whose chapter is chemical bonding and intermolecular forces for high school students grade ten. As usual, the material is subjected to get either quantitative mark or suggestion through validation process using validation sheet instrument. Development model is adapted from 4D model containing four steps. They are define, design, develop, and disseminate. Nevertheless, development of instructional material had only done until third step. The final step wasn’t done because of time, cost, and energy limitations. Developed instructional material had been validated by four validators. They are coming from chemistry lecture and high school’s teacher which two at each. The result of this development research shown the average of quantitative mark of students’ book is 92.75% with very proper in criteria. Given at same validation process, teacher’s guiding book got the average mark by 96.98%, similar criteria with students’ book. Qualitative mark including both comments and suggestions resulted from validation process were used as consideration for the revision. The result concluded us how the instructional materials using scientific approach to explicit nature of science and critical thinking on the topic of chemical bonding and intermolecular forces are very proper if they are used at learning activity.

Keywords: critical thinking, instructional material, nature of science, scientific literacy

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Authors: Dale Dzemydiene, Aurelija Burinskiene, Arunas Miliauskas, Kristina Ciziuniene

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Data flow and the purpose of reporting the data are different and dependent on business needs. Different parameters are reported and transferred regularly during freight delivery. This business practices form the dataset constructed for each time point and contain all required information for freight moving decisions. As a significant amount of these data is used for various purposes, an integrating methodological approach must be developed to respond to the indicated problem. The proposed methodology contains several steps: (1) collecting context data sets and data validation; (2) multi-objective analysis for optimizing freight transfer services. For data validation, the study involves Grubbs outliers analysis, particularly for data cleaning and the identification of statistical significance of data reporting event cases. The Grubbs test is often used as it measures one external value at a time exceeding the boundaries of standard normal distribution. In the study area, the test was not widely applied by authors, except when the Grubbs test for outlier detection was used to identify outsiders in fuel consumption data. In the study, the authors applied the method with a confidence level of 99%. For the multi-objective analysis, the authors would like to select the forms of construction of the genetic algorithms, which have more possibilities to extract the best solution. For freight delivery management, the schemas of genetic algorithms' structure are used as a more effective technique. Due to that, the adaptable genetic algorithm is applied for the description of choosing process of the effective transportation corridor. In this study, the multi-objective genetic algorithm methods are used to optimize the data evaluation and select the appropriate transport corridor. The authors suggest a methodology for the multi-objective analysis, which evaluates collected context data sets and uses this evaluation to determine a delivery corridor for freight transfer service in the multi-modal transportation network. In the multi-objective analysis, authors include safety components, the number of accidents a year, and freight delivery time in the multi-modal transportation network. The proposed methodology has practical value in the management of multi-modal transportation processes.

Keywords: multi-objective, analysis, data flow, freight delivery, methodology

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Authors: Getalem E. Haylia

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The Ribb dam is one of the irrigation projects in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia, to irrigate the Fogera plain. Reservoir sedimentation is a major problem because it reduces the useful reservoir capacity by the accumulation of sediments coming from the watersheds. Estimates of sediment yield are needed for studies of reservoir sedimentation and planning of soil and water conservation measures. The objective of this study was to simulate the Ribb dam catchment sediment yield using SWAT model and to estimate Ribb reservoir effective life according to trap efficiency methods. The Ribb dam catchment is found in North Western part of Ethiopia highlands, and it belongs to the upper Blue Nile and Lake Tana basins. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected to simulate flow and sediment yield in the Ribb dam catchment. The model sensitivity, calibration, and validation analysis at Ambo Bahir site were performed with Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2). The flow data at this site was obtained by transforming the Lower Ribb gauge station (2002-2013) flow data using Area Ratio Method. The sediment load was derived based on the sediment concentration yield curve of Ambo site. Stream flow results showed that the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) was 0.81 and the coefficient of determination (R²) was 0.86 in calibration period (2004-2010) and, 0.74 and 0.77 in validation period (2011-2013), respectively. Using the same periods, the NS and R² for the sediment load calibration were 0.85 and 0.79 and, for the validation, it became 0.83 and 0.78, respectively. The simulated average daily flow rate and sediment yield generated from Ribb dam watershed were 3.38 m³/s and 1772.96 tons/km²/yr, respectively. The effective life of Ribb reservoir was estimated using the developed empirical methods of the Brune (1953), Churchill (1948) and Brown (1958) methods and found to be 30, 38 and 29 years respectively. To conclude, massive sediment comes from the steep slope agricultural areas, and approximately 98-100% of this incoming annual sediment loads have been trapped by the Ribb reservoir. In Ribb catchment, as well as reservoir systematic and thorough consideration of technical, social, environmental, and catchment managements and practices should be made to lengthen the useful life of Ribb reservoir.

Keywords: catchment, reservoir effective life, reservoir sedimentation, Ribb, sediment yield, SWAT model

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Authors: S. Cencek, A. Markun

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Noise assessment methods are regularly used in scope of Environmental Impact Assessments for planned projects to assess (predict) the expected noise emissions of these projects. Different noise assessment methods could be used. In recent years, we had an opportunity to collaborate in some noise assessment procedures where noise assessments of different laboratories have been performed simultaneously. We identified some significant differences in noise assessment results between laboratories in Slovenia. We estimate that despite good input Georeferenced Data to set up acoustic model exists in Slovenia; there is no clear consensus on methods for predictive noise methods for planned projects. We analyzed input data, methods and results of predictive noise methods for two planned industrial projects, both were done independently by two laboratories. We also analyzed the data, methods and results of two interlaboratory collaborative noise models for two existing noise sources (railway and motorway). In cases of predictive noise modelling, the validations of acoustic models were performed by noise measurements of surrounding existing noise sources, but in varying durations. The acoustic characteristics of existing buildings were also not described identically. The planned noise sources were described and digitized differently. Differences in noise assessment results between different laboratories have ranged up to 10 dBA, which considerably exceeds the acceptable uncertainty ranged between 3 to 6 dBA. Contrary to predictive noise modelling, in cases of collaborative noise modelling for two existing noise sources the possibility to perform the validation noise measurements of existing noise sources greatly increased the comparability of noise modelling results. In both cases of collaborative noise modelling for existing motorway and railway, the modelling results of different laboratories were comparable. Differences in noise modeling results between different laboratories were below 5 dBA, which was acceptable uncertainty set up by interlaboratory noise modelling organizer. The lessons learned from the study were: 1) Predictive noise calculation using formulae from International standard SIST ISO 9613-2: 1997 is not an appropriate method to predict noise emissions of planned projects since due to complexity of procedure they are not used strictly, 2) The noise measurements are important tools to minimize noise assessment errors of planned projects and should be in cases of predictive noise modelling performed at least for validation of acoustic model, 3) National guidelines should be made on the appropriate data, methods, noise source digitalization, validation of acoustic model etc. in order to unify the predictive noise models and their results in scope of Environmental Impact Assessments for planned projects.

Keywords: environmental noise assessment, predictive noise modelling, spatial planning, noise measurements, national guidelines

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Authors: Soulef Amamria, Mohamed Sadok Bensalem, Mohamed Ghanmi

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The structural and sedimentological study of fault-related- folds in the Southern Tunisian Atlas is distinguished by a special geometry of the gravitational structures. This distinct geometry is observable in the example of a flap structure in Jebel Ben Zannouch with the formation of a stuck syncline. This geometry can be explained by the mechanism of major thrusting in Orbata anticline in the occidental extremity of Gafsa chains, with asymmetrical flank dips and hinge migration kinematics. These kinematics was originally controlled by the Breakthrough structure; the study of this special geometry of gravity flap structure depends on the sedimentation domain, shortening ratios, and erosion speed. This study constitutes one of the complete examples of kinematic model validation on a field scale.

Keywords: fault-related-folds, southern Tunisian Atlas, flap structure, breakthrough

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Authors: M. Pienaar, J. W. Odendaal, J. C. Smit, J. Joubert

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Simulations are commonly used to predict the bistatic radar cross section (RCS) of military targets since characterization measurements can be expensive and time consuming. It is thus important to accurately predict the bistatic RCS of targets. Computational electromagnetic (CEM) methods can be used for bistatic RCS prediction. CEM methods are divided into full-wave and asymptotic methods. Full-wave methods are numerical approximations to the exact solution of Maxwell’s equations. These methods are very accurate but are computationally very intensive and time consuming. Asymptotic techniques make simplifying assumptions in solving Maxwell's equations and are thus less accurate but require less computational resources and time. Asymptotic techniques can thus be very valuable for the prediction of bistatic RCS of electrically large targets, due to the decreased computational requirements. This study extends previous work by validating the accuracy of asymptotic techniques to predict bistatic RCS through comparison with full-wave simulations as well as measurements. Validation is done with canonical structures as well as complex realistic aircraft models instead of only looking at a complex slicy structure. The slicy structure is a combination of canonical structures, including cylinders, corner reflectors and cubes. Validation is done over large bistatic angles and at different polarizations. Bistatic RCS measurements were conducted in a compact range, at the University of Pretoria, South Africa. The measurements were performed at different polarizations from 2 GHz to 6 GHz. Fixed bistatic angles of β = 30.8°, 45° and 90° were used. The measurements were calibrated with an active calibration target. The EM simulation tool FEKO was used to generate simulated results. The full-wave multi-level fast multipole method (MLFMM) simulated results together with the measured data were used as reference for validation. The accuracy of physical optics (PO) and geometrical optics (GO) was investigated. Differences relating to amplitude, lobing structure and null positions were observed between the asymptotic, full-wave and measured data. PO and GO were more accurate at angles close to the specular scattering directions and the accuracy seemed to decrease as the bistatic angle increased. At large bistatic angles PO did not perform well due to the shadow regions not being treated appropriately. PO also did not perform well for canonical structures where multi-bounce was the main scattering mechanism. PO and GO do not account for diffraction but these inaccuracies tended to decrease as the electrical size of objects increased. It was evident that both asymptotic techniques do not properly account for bistatic structural shadowing. Specular scattering was calculated accurately even if targets did not meet the electrically large criteria. It was evident that the bistatic RCS prediction performance of PO and GO depends on incident angle, frequency, target shape and observation angle. The improved computational efficiency of the asymptotic solvers yields a major advantage over full-wave solvers and measurements; however, there is still much room for improvement of the accuracy of these asymptotic techniques.

Keywords: asymptotic techniques, bistatic RCS, geometrical optics, physical optics

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Authors: Ting Lu, Ya-Ru Diao, Fei Fan, Ye Xue, Lei Shi, Xian-e Tang, Meng-jun Zhan, Zhen-hua Deng

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Accurate adult age estimation (AAE) is a significant and challenging task in forensic and archeology fields. Attempts have been made to explore optimal adult age metrics, and the rib is considered a potential age marker. The traditional way is to extract age-related features designed by experts from macroscopic or radiological images followed by classification or regression analysis. Those results still have not met the high-level requirements for practice, and the limitation of using feature design and manual extraction methods is loss of information since the features are likely not designed explicitly for extracting information relevant to age. Deep learning (DL) has recently garnered much interest in imaging learning and computer vision. It enables learning features that are important without a prior bias or hypothesis and could be supportive of AAE. This study aimed to develop DL models for AAE based on CT images and compare their performance to the manual visual scoring method. Chest CT data were reconstructed using volume rendering (VR). Retrospective data of 2500 patients aged 20.00-69.99 years were obtained between December 2019 and September 2021. Five-fold cross-validation was performed, and datasets were randomly split into training and validation sets in a 4:1 ratio for each fold. Before feeding the inputs into networks, all images were augmented with random rotation and vertical flip, normalized, and resized to 224×224 pixels. ResNeXt was chosen as the DL baseline due to its advantages of higher efficiency and accuracy in image classification. Mean absolute error (MAE) was the primary parameter. Independent data from 100 patients acquired between March and April 2022 were used as a test set. The manual method completely followed the prior study, which reported the lowest MAEs (5.31 in males and 6.72 in females) among similar studies. CT data and VR images were used. The radiation density of the first costal cartilage was recorded using CT data on the workstation. The osseous and calcified projections of the 1 to 7 costal cartilages were scored based on VR images using an eight-stage staging technique. According to the results of the prior study, the optimal models were the decision tree regression model in males and the stepwise multiple linear regression equation in females. Predicted ages of the test set were calculated separately using different models by sex. A total of 2600 patients (training and validation sets, mean age=45.19 years±14.20 [SD]; test set, mean age=46.57±9.66) were evaluated in this study. Of ResNeXt model training, MAEs were obtained with 3.95 in males and 3.65 in females. Based on the test set, DL achieved MAEs of 4.05 in males and 4.54 in females, which were far better than the MAEs of 8.90 and 6.42 respectively, for the manual method. Those results showed that the DL of the ResNeXt model outperformed the manual method in AAE based on CT reconstruction of the costal cartilage and the developed system may be a supportive tool for AAE.

Keywords: forensic anthropology, age determination by the skeleton, costal cartilage, CT, deep learning

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Authors: H. Al-Hajeri

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The computation of the effectiveness of turbulence enhancement surface features, such as ribs as means of promoting mixing and hence heat transfer, has attracted the continued attention of the engineering community. In this study, the simulation of a three-dimensional cooling passage is carried out employing a number of turbulence models including Durbin model. The cooling passage consists of a square section duct whose upper and lower surfaces feature staggered cuboid ribs. The main objective of this paper is to provide comparisons of the performance of the v2-f model against other established turbulence models as implemented in the commercial CFD code Ansys Fluent. The present study demonstrates that the v2-f model can successfully capture the isothermal air flow phenomena in flow over obstacles.

Keywords: CFD, cooling passage, Durbin model, turbulence model

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Authors: Mário Ernesto Sitoe, Orlando Zacarias

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University education is influenced by several factors that range from the adoption of strategies to strengthen the whole process to the academic performance improvement of the students themselves. This work uses data mining techniques to develop a predictive model to identify students with a tendency to evasion and retention. To this end, a database of real students’ data from the Department of University Admission (DAU) and the Department of Mathematics and Informatics (DMI) was used. The data comprised 388 undergraduate students admitted in the years 2009 to 2014. The Weka tool was used for model building, using three different techniques, namely: K-nearest neighbor, random forest, and logistic regression. To allow for training on multiple train-test splits, a cross-validation approach was employed with a varying number of folds. To reduce bias variance and improve the performance of the models, ensemble methods of Bagging and Stacking were used. After comparing the results obtained by the three classifiers, Logistic Regression using Bagging with seven folds obtained the best performance, showing results above 90% in all evaluated metrics: accuracy, rate of true positives, and precision. Retention is the most common tendency.

Keywords: evasion and retention, cross-validation, bagging, stacking

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Authors: Kenan Morani, Esra Kaya Ayana

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This study aimed to develop a novel pipeline for COVID-19 detection using a large and rigorously annotated database of computed tomography (CT) images. The pipeline consists of UNet-based segmentation, lung extraction, and a classification part, with the addition of optional slice removal techniques following the segmentation part. In this work, a batch normalization was added to the original UNet model to produce lighter and better localization, which is then utilized to build a full pipeline for COVID-19 diagnosis. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed pipeline, various segmentation methods were compared in terms of their performance and complexity. The proposed segmentation method with batch normalization outperformed traditional methods and other alternatives, resulting in a higher dice score on a publicly available dataset. Moreover, at the slice level, the proposed pipeline demonstrated high validation accuracy, indicating the efficiency of predicting 2D slices. At the patient level, the full approach exhibited higher validation accuracy and macro F1 score compared to other alternatives, surpassing the baseline. The classification component of the proposed pipeline utilizes a convolutional neural network (CNN) to make final diagnosis decisions. The COV19-CT-DB dataset, which contains a large number of CT scans with various types of slices and rigorously annotated for COVID-19 detection, was utilized for classification. The proposed pipeline outperformed many other alternatives on the dataset.

Keywords: classification, computed tomography, lung extraction, macro F1 score, UNet segmentation

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Authors: Cyrus Addy, Venkata Sriram Siddhardh Nadendla, Kwame Awuah-Offei

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Surface robots in modern underground mine rescue operations suffer from several limitations in enabling a prompt self-rescue. Therefore, the possibility of designing and deploying in-mine robots to expedite miner self-rescue can have a transformative impact on miner safety. These in-mine robots for miner self-rescue can be envisioned to carry out diverse tasks such as object detection, autonomous navigation, and payload delivery. Specifically, this paper investigates the challenges in the design of object detection algorithms for in-mine robots using thermal images, especially to detect people in real-time. A total of 125 thermal images were collected in the Missouri S&T Experimental Mine with the help of student volunteers using the FLIR TG 297 infrared camera, which were pre-processed into training and validation datasets with 100 and 25 images, respectively. Three state-of-the-art, pre-trained real-time object detection models, namely YOLOv5, YOLO-FIRI, and YOLOv8, were considered and re-trained using transfer learning techniques on the training dataset. On the validation dataset, the re-trained YOLOv8 outperforms the re-trained versions of both YOLOv5, and YOLO-FIRI.

Keywords: miner self-rescue, object detection, underground mine, YOLO

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Authors: Anne C. Richer-De-Forges, Dominique Arrouays, Songchao Chen, Mercedes Roman Dobarco

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Most of the digital soil mapping (DSM) products rely on machine learning (ML) prediction models and/or the use or pedotransfer functions (PTF) in which calibration data come from soil analyses performed in labs. However, many other observations (often qualitative, nominal, or ordinal) could be used as proxies of lab measurements or as input data for ML of PTF predictions. DSM and ML are briefly described with some examples taken from the literature. Then, we explore the potential of an ordinal qualitative variable, i.e., the hand-feel soil texture (HFST) estimating the mineral particle distribution (PSD): % of clay (0-2µm), silt (2-50µm) and sand (50-2000µm) in 15 classes. The PSD can also be measured by lab measurements (LAST) to determine the exact proportion of these particle-sizes. However, due to cost constraints, HFST are much more numerous and spatially dense than LAST. Soil texture (ST) is a very important soil parameter to map as it is controlling many of the soil properties and functions. Therefore, comes an essential question: is it possible to use HFST as a proxy of LAST for calibration and/or validation of DSM predictions of ST? To answer this question, the first step is to compare HFST with LAST on a representative set where both information are available. This comparison was made on ca 17,400 samples representative of a French region (34,000 km2). The accuracy of HFST was assessed, and each HFST class was characterized by a probability distribution function (PDF) of its LAST values. This enables to randomly replace HFST observations by LAST values while respecting the PDF previously calculated and results in a very large increase of observations available for the calibration or validation of PTF and ML predictions. Some preliminary results are shown. First, the comparison between HFST classes and LAST analyses showed that accuracies could be considered very good when compared to other studies. The causes of some inconsistencies were explored and most of them were well explained by other soil characteristics. Then we show some examples applying these relationships and the increase of data to several issues related to DSM. The first issue is: do the PDF functions that were established enable to use HSFT class observations to improve the LAST soil texture prediction? For this objective, we replaced all HFST for topsoil by values from the PDF 100 time replicates). Results were promising for the PTF we tested (a PTF predicting soil water holding capacity). For the question related to the ML prediction of LAST soil texture on the region, we did the same kind of replacement, but we implemented a 10-fold cross-validation using points where we had LAST values. We obtained only preliminary results but they were rather promising. Then we show another example illustrating the potential of using HFST as validation data. As in numerous countries, the HFST observations are very numerous; these promising results pave the way to an important improvement of DSM products in all the countries of the world.

Keywords: digital soil mapping, improvement of digital soil mapping predictions, potential of using hand-feel soil texture, soil texture prediction

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Authors: Sultan Mahmud, Qamar Zaman, Travis Esau, Young Chang

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Strawberry powdery mildew (PM) is a serious disease that has a significant impact on strawberry production. Field scouting is still a major way to find PM disease, which is not only labor intensive but also almost impossible to monitor disease severity. To reduce the loss caused by PM disease and achieve faster automatic detection of the disease, this paper proposes an approach for detection of the disease, based on image texture and classified with support vector machines (SVMs) and k-nearest neighbors (kNNs). The methodology of the proposed study is based on image processing which is composed of five main steps including image acquisition, pre-processing, segmentation, features extraction and classification. Two strawberry fields were used in this study. Images of healthy leaves and leaves infected with PM (Sphaerotheca macularis) disease under artificial cloud lighting condition. Colour thresholding was utilized to segment all images before textural analysis. Colour co-occurrence matrix (CCM) was introduced for extraction of textural features. Forty textural features, related to a physiological parameter of leaves were extracted from CCM of National television system committee (NTSC) luminance, hue, saturation and intensity (HSI) images. The normalized feature data were utilized for training and validation, respectively, using developed classifiers. The classifiers have experimented with internal, external and cross-validations. The best classifier was selected based on their performance and accuracy. Experimental results suggested that SVMs classifier showed 98.33%, 85.33%, 87.33%, 93.33% and 95.0% of accuracy on internal, external-I, external-II, 4-fold cross and 5-fold cross-validation, respectively. Whereas, kNNs results represented 90.0%, 72.00%, 74.66%, 89.33% and 90.3% of classification accuracy, respectively. The outcome of this study demonstrated that SVMs classified PM disease with a highest overall accuracy of 91.86% and 1.1211 seconds of processing time. Therefore, overall results concluded that the proposed study can significantly support an accurate and automatic identification and recognition of strawberry PM disease with SVMs classifier.

Keywords: powdery mildew, image processing, textural analysis, color co-occurrence matrix, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors

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Authors: Nazia Mustafa, Aneela Maqsood

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Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory is the most widely used instrument for assessing children and adolescent health-related quality of life and has shown excellent markers of reliability and validity. The current study was carried out with the objectives of translation and cross-language validation along with the determination of factor Structure and psychometric properties of the Urdu version. It was administered on 154 Primary School Children with age range 10 to12 years (M= 10.86, S.D = 0.62); including boys (n=92) and girls (n = 62). The sample was recruited from two randomly selected schools from the Rawalpindi district of Pakistan. Results of the pilot phase revealed that the instrument had good reliability (Urdu Version α = 0.798; English Version α = 0.795) as well as test-retest correlation coefficients over a period of 15 days (r = 0.85). Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) resulted in three factorial structures; Social/School Functioning (k = 8), Psychological Functioning (k = 7) and Physical Functioning (k = 6) considered suitable for our sample instead of four factors. Bartlett's test of sphericity showed inter-correlation between variables. However, factor loadings for items 22 and 23 of the School Functioning subscale were problematic. The model was fit to the data after their removal with Cronbach’s Alpha Reliability coefficient of the scale (k = 21) as 0.87 and for subscales as 0.75, 0.77 and 0.73 for Social/School Scale, Psychological subscale and Physical subscale, respectively. These results supported the feasibility and reliability of the Urdu version of the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory as a reliable and effective tool for the measurement of quality of life among Pediatrics Pakistani population.

Keywords: primary school children, paediatric quality of life, exploratory factor analysis, Pakistan

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Authors: Khadija Raissi, Bechir Ben Gouissem

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In this paper, we perform the investigation of some routing protocols in Vehicular Ad-Hoc Network (VANET) context. Indeed, we study the efficiency of protocols like Dynamic Source Routing (DSR), Ad hoc On-demand Distance Vector Routing (AODV), Destination Sequenced Distance Vector (DSDV), Optimized Link State Routing convention (OLSR) and Vehicular Multi-hop algorithm for Stable Clustering (VMASC) in terms of packet delivery ratio (PDR) and throughput. The performance evaluation and comparison between the studied protocols shows that the VMASC is the best protocols regarding fast data transmission and link stability in VANETs. The validation of all results is done by the NS3 simulator.

Keywords: VANET, smart city, AODV, OLSR, DSR, OLSR, VMASC, routing protocols, NS3

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Authors: Arman Ameen, Mathias Cehlin

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The use of Building Energy Simulation (BES) software has increased in the last two decades, parallel to the development of increased computing power and easy to use software applications. This type of software is primarily used to simulate the energy use and the indoor environment for a building. The rapid development of these types of software has raised their level of user-friendliness, better parameter input options and the increased possibility of analysis, both for a single building component or an entire building. This, in turn, has led to many researchers utilizing BES software in their research in various degrees. The aim of this paper is to carry out a literature review concerning the use of the BES software IDA Indoor Climate and Energy (IDA ICE) in the scientific community. The focus of this paper will be specifically the use of the software for whole building energy simulation, number and types of articles and publications dates, the area of application, types of parameters used, the location of the studied building, type of building, type of analysis and solution methodology. Another aspect that is examined, which is of great interest, is the method of validations regarding the simulation results. The results show that there is an upgoing trend in the use of IDA ICE and that researchers use the software in their research in various degrees depending on case and aim of their research. The satisfactory level of validation of the simulations carried out in these articles varies depending on the type of article and type of analysis.

Keywords: building simulation, IDA ICE, literature review, validation

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Authors: Rajesh Kumar G

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A challenging aspect of any clinical trial is to carefully plan the study design to meet the study objective in optimum way and to validate the assumptions made during protocol designing. And when it is a pediatric study, there is the added challenge of stringent guidelines and difficulty in recruiting the necessary subjects. Unlike adult trials, there is not much historical data available for pediatrics, which is required to validate assumptions for planning pediatric trials. Typically, pediatric studies are initiated as soon as approval is obtained for a drug to be marketed for adults, so with the adult study historical information and with the available pediatric pilot study data or simulated pediatric data, the pediatric study can be well planned. Generalizing the historical adult study for new pediatric study is a tedious task; however, it is possible by integrating various statistical techniques and utilizing the advantage of hybrid study design, which will help to achieve the study objective in a smoother way even with the presence of many constraints. This research paper will explain how well the hybrid study design can be planned along with integrated technique (SEV) to plan the pediatric study; In brief the SEV technique (Simulation, Estimation (using borrowed adult data and applying Bayesian methods)) incorporates the use of simulating the planned study data and getting the desired estimates to Validate the assumptions.This method of validation can be used to improve the accuracy of data analysis, ensuring that results are as valid and reliable as possible, which allow us to make informed decisions well ahead of study initiation. With professional precision, this technique based on the collected data allows to gain insight into best practices when using data from historical study and simulated data alike.

Keywords: adaptive design, simulation, borrowing data, bayesian model

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Authors: Sh. Arzani, H. Kazemi Esfeh, Y. Galeh Zadeh, V. Akbari

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Ethylene dichloride is a colorless liquid with a smell like chloroform. EDC is classified in the simple hydrocarbon group which is obtained from chlorinating ethylene gas. Its chemical formula is C2H2Cl2 which is used as the main mediator in VCM production. Therefore, the purification process of EDC is important in the petrochemical process. In this study, the purification unit of EDC was simulated, and then validation was performed. Finally, the impact of process parameter was studied for the degree of EDC purity. The results showed that by increasing the feed flow, the reflux impure combinations increase and result in an EDC purity decrease.

Keywords: ethylene dichloride, purification, edc, simulation

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Authors: Babek Erdebilli

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The aim of this study is to develop and describe a new methodology for the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) problem using IFE (Elimination Et Choix Traduisant La Realite (ELECTRE) model. The proposed models enable Decision-Makers (DMs) on the assessment and use Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers (IFN). A numerical example is provided to demonstrate and clarify the proposed analysis procedure. Also, an empirical experiment is conducted to validation the effectiveness.

Keywords: multi-criteria decision-making, IFE, DM’s, fuzzy electre model

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Authors: Zahraa Al Ali, Ammar Abulibdeh, Talal Al-Awadhi, Midhun Mohan, Mohammed Al-Barwani, Mohammed Al-Barwani, Sara Al Nabbi, Meshal Abdullah

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This study aims to evaluate the performance and effectiveness of six spectral water indices - derived from Multispectral sentinel-2 data - to detect soil moisture and inundated area in arid regions to be used as an indicator of mudflow phenomena to predict high-risk areas. Herein, the validation of the performance of spectral indices was conducted using threshold method, spectral curve performance, and soil-line method. These indirect validation techniques play a key role in saving time, effort, and cost, particularly for large-scale and inaccessible areas. It was observed that the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (mNDWI), and RSWIR indices have the potential to detect soil moisture and inundated areas in arid regions. According to the temporal spectral curve performance, the spectral characteristics of water and soil moisture were distinct in the Near infrared (NIR), Short-wave Infrared (SWIR1,2) bands. However, the rate and degree differed between these bands, depending on the amount of water in the soil. Furthermore, the soil line method supported the appropriate selection of threshold values to detect soil moisture. However, the threshold values varied with location, time, season, and between indices. We concluded that considering the factors influencing the behavior of water and soil reflectivity could support decision-makers in identifying high-risk mudflow locations.

Keywords: spectral reflectance curve, soil-line method, spectral indices, Shaheen cyclone

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Authors: Bronwen Wade

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Over the last half-century, child welfare systems have increasingly relied on quantitative risk assessment tools, such as actuarial or predictive risk tools. These tools are developed by performing statistical analysis of how attributes captured in administrative data are related to future child maltreatment. Some scholars argue that attributes in administrative data can serve as proxies for race and that quantitative risk assessment tools reify racial bias in decision-making. Others argue that these tools provide more “objective” and “scientific” guides for decision-making instead of subjective social worker judgment. This study performs a systematic review of the literature on the impact of quantitative risk assessment tools on racial disproportionality; it examines methodological biases in work on this topic, summarizes key findings, and provides suggestions for further work. A search of CINAHL, PsychInfo, Proquest Social Science Premium Collection, and the ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Collection was performed. Academic and grey literature were included. The review includes studies that use quasi-experimental methods and development, validation, or re-validation studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. PROBAST (Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool) and CHARMS (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies) were used to assess the risk of bias and guide data extraction for risk development, validation, or re-validation studies. ROBINS-I (Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions) was used to assess for bias and guide data extraction for the quasi-experimental studies identified. Due to heterogeneity among papers, a meta-analysis was not feasible, and a narrative synthesis was conducted. 11 papers met the eligibility criteria, and each has an overall high risk of bias based on the PROBAST and ROBINS-I assessments. This is deeply concerning, as major policy decisions have been made based on a limited number of studies with a high risk of bias. The findings on racial disproportionality have been mixed and depend on the tool and approach used. Authors use various definitions for racial equity, fairness, or disproportionality. These concepts of statistical fairness are connected to theories about the reason for racial disproportionality in child welfare or social definitions of fairness that are usually not stated explicitly. Most findings from these studies are unreliable, given the high degree of bias. However, some of the less biased measures within studies suggest that quantitative risk assessment tools may worsen racial disproportionality, depending on how disproportionality is mathematically defined. Authors vary widely in their approach to defining and addressing racial disproportionality within studies, making it difficult to generalize findings or approaches across studies. This review demonstrates the power of authors to shape policy or discourse around racial justice based on their choice of statistical methods; it also demonstrates the need for improved rigor and transparency in studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. Finally, this review raises concerns about the impact that these tools have on child welfare systems and racial disproportionality.

Keywords: actuarial risk, child welfare, predictive risk, racial disproportionality

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Authors: Shishay Kidanu, Abdullah Alhaj

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Sinkholes in the karst terrain of Greene County, Missouri, pose significant geohazards, imposing challenges on construction and infrastructure development, with potential threats to lives and property. To address these issues, understanding the influencing factors and modeling sinkhole susceptibility is crucial for effective mitigation through strategic changes in land use planning and practices. This study utilizes geographic information system (GIS) software to collect and process diverse data, including topographic, geologic, hydrogeologic, and anthropogenic information. Nine key sinkhole influencing factors, ranging from slope characteristics to proximity to geological structures, were carefully analyzed. The Frequency Ratio method establishes relationships between attribute classes of these factors and sinkhole events, deriving class weights to indicate their relative importance. Weighted integration of these factors is accomplished using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) method in a GIS environment, resulting in a comprehensive sinkhole susceptibility index (SSI) model for the study area. Employing Jenk's natural break classifier method, the SSI values are categorized into five distinct sinkhole susceptibility zones: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Validation of the model, conducted through the Area Under Curve (AUC) and Sinkhole Density Index (SDI) methods, demonstrates a robust correlation with sinkhole inventory data. The prediction rate curve yields an AUC value of 74%, indicating a 74% validation accuracy. The SDI result further supports the success of the sinkhole susceptibility model. This model offers reliable predictions for the future distribution of sinkholes, providing valuable insights for planners and engineers in the formulation of development plans and land-use strategies. Its application extends to enhancing preparedness and minimizing the impact of sinkhole-related geohazards on both infrastructure and the community.

Keywords: sinkhole, GIS, analytical hierarchy process, frequency ratio, susceptibility, Missouri

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Authors: V. Rangarajan, Priyanka Kaushal

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This study investigates the effectiveness of a typical Earth Air Heat Exchanger (EATHE) for energy efficient space cooling in an urban environment typified by space and soil-related constraints that preclude an optimal design. It involves the development of a three-dimensional numerical transient model that is validated by measurements at a live site in India. It is found that the model accurately predicts the soil temperatures at various depths as well as the EATHE outlet air temperature. The study shows that such an EATHE, even when designed under constraints, does provide effective space cooling especially during the hot months of the year.

Keywords: earth air heat exchanger (EATHE), India, MATLAB, model, simulation

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Authors: Deniz Peksen

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This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

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Authors: Maryamosadat Ghasemi, Reza Amrollahi

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Plasma equilibrium geometry has a great influence on the confinement and magnetohydrodynamic stability in tokamaks. The poloidal field (PF) system of a tokamak should be able to support this plasma equilibrium geometry. In this work the prepared numerical code based on radial basis functions are presented and used to solve the Grad–Shafranov (GS) equation for the axisymmetric equilibrium of tokamak plasma. The radial basis functions (RBFs) which is a kind of numerical meshfree method (MFM) for solving partial differential equations (PDEs) has appeared in the last decade and is developing significantly in the last few years. This technique is applied in this study to obtain the equilibrium configuration for Alborz Tokamak. The behavior of numerical solution convergences show the validation of this calculations.

Keywords: equilibrium, grad–shafranov, radial basis functions, Alborz Tokamak

Procedia PDF Downloads 446

Authors: George Madalin Danila, Mihaiella Cretu, Cristian Puscasu

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Glycol-based anti-freeze liquids, commonly composed of ethylene glycol or propylene glycol, have important uses in automotive cooling, but they should be handled with care due to their toxicity; ethylene glycol is highly toxic to humans and animals. A fast, accurate, precise, and robust method was developed for the simultaneous quantification of 7 most important glycols and their isomers. Glycols were analyzed from diluted sample solution of coolants using gas-chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry in single ion monitoring mode. Results: The method was developed and validated for 7 individual glycols (ethylene glycol, diethylene glycol, triethylene glycol, tetraethylene glycol, propylene glycol, dipropylene glycol and tripropylene glycol). Limits of detection (1-2 μg/mL) and limit of quantification (10 μg/mL) obtained were appropriate. The present method was applied for the determination of glycols in 10 different anti-freeze liquids commercially available on the Romanian market, proving to be reliable. A method that requires only a two-step dilution of anti-freeze samples combined with direct liquid injection GC-MS was validated for the simultaneous quantification of 7 glycols (and their isomers) in 10 different types of anti-freeze liquids. The results obtained in the validation procedure proved that the GC-MS method is sensitive and precise for the quantification of glycols.

Keywords: glycols, anti-freeze, gas-chromatography, mass spectrometry, validation, recycle

Procedia PDF Downloads 35

Authors: Carla E. O. de Moraes, Gladson O. Antunes, Mauro A. Rincon

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The aim of this paper is to study the internal stabilization of the Bernoulli-Euler equation numerically. For this, we consider a square plate subjected to a feedback/damping force distributed only in a subdomain. An algorithm for obtaining an approximate solution to this problem was proposed and implemented. The numerical method used was the Finite Difference Method. Numerical simulations were performed and showed the behavior of the solution, confirming the theoretical results that have already been proved in the literature. In addition, we studied the validation of the numerical scheme proposed, followed by an analysis of the numerical error; and we conducted a study on the decay of the energy associated.

Keywords: Bernoulli-Euler plate equation, numerical simulations, stability, energy decay, finite difference method

Procedia PDF Downloads 386

Authors: R. Lhissou , A. El Harti , K. Chokmani, E. Bachaoui, A. El Ghmari

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Soil salinity is a serious environmental hazard in many countries around the world especially the arid and semi-arid countries like Morocco. Salinization causes negative effects on the ground; it affects agricultural production, infrastructure, water resources and biodiversity. Remote sensing can provide soil salinity information for large areas, and in a relatively short time. In addition, remote sensing is not limited by extremes in terrain or hazardous condition. Contrariwise, experimental methods for monitoring soil salinity by direct measurements in situ are very demanding of time and resources, and also very limited in spatial coverage. In the irrigated perimeter of Tadla plain in central Morocco, the increased use of saline groundwater and surface water, coupled with agricultural intensification leads to the deterioration of soil quality especially by salinization. In this study, we assessed several spectral indices of soil salinity cited in the literature using Landsat TM satellite images and field measurements of electrical conductivity (EC). Three Landsat TM satellite images were taken during 3 months in the dry season (September, October and November 2011). Based on field measurement data of EC collected in three field campaigns over the three dates simultaneously with acquisition dates of Landsat TM satellite images, a two assessment techniques are used to validate a soil salinity spectral indices. Firstly, the spectral indices are validated locally by pixel. The second validation technique is made using a window of size 3x3 pixels. The results of the study indicated that the second technique provides getting a more accurate validation and the assessment has shown its limits when it comes to assess across the pixel. In addition, the EC values measured from field have a good correlation with some spectral indices derived from Landsat TM data and the best results show an r² of 0.88, 0.79 and 0.65 for Salinity Index (SI) in the three dates respectively. The results have shown the usefulness of spectral indices as an auxiliary variable in the spatial estimation and mapping salinity in irrigated land.

Keywords: remote sensing, spectral indices, soil salinity, irrigated land

Procedia PDF Downloads 366

Authors: Tanwarat Kajsongkram, Saowalux Rotamporn, Sirinat Limbunruang, Sirinan Thubthimthed.

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High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) method was developed and validated for simultaneous estimation of 6-Gingerol(6G) and 6-Shogaol(6S) in joint pain relief gel containing ginger extract. The chromatographic separation was achieved by using C18 column, 150 x 4.6mm i.d., 5μ Luna, mobile phase containing acetonitrile and water (gradient elution). The flow rate was 1.0 ml/min and the absorbance was monitored at 282 nm. The proposed method was validated in terms of the analytical parameters such as specificity, accuracy, precision, linearity, range, limit of detection (LOD), limit of quantification (LOQ), and determined based on the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) guidelines. The linearity ranges of 6G and 6S were obtained over 20-60 and 6-18 µg/ml respectively. Good linearity was observed over the above-mentioned range with linear regression equation Y= 11016x- 23778 for 6G and Y = 19276x-19604 for 6S (x is concentration of analytes in μg/ml and Y is peak area). The value of correlation coefficient was found to be 0.9994 for both markers. The limit of detection (LOD) and limit of quantification (LOQ) for 6G were 0.8567 and 2.8555 µg/ml and for 6S were 0.3672 and 1.2238 µg/ml respectively. The recovery range for 6G and 6S were found to be 91.57 to 102.36 % and 84.73 to 92.85 % for all three spiked levels. The RSD values from repeated extractions for 6G and 6S were 3.43 and 3.09% respectively. The validation of developed method on precision, accuracy, specificity, linearity, and range were also performed with well-accepted results.

Keywords: ginger, 6-gingerol, HPLC, 6-shogaol

Procedia PDF Downloads 417