Search results for: uncertainty relations

Authors: Imane Khalil, Quinn Pratt

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In a nuclear reactor, an array of fuel rods containing stacked uranium dioxide pellets clad with zircalloy is the heat source for a thermodynamic cycle of energy conversion from heat to electricity. After fuel is used in a nuclear reactor, the assemblies are stored underwater in a spent nuclear fuel pool at the nuclear power plant while heat generation and radioactive decay rates decrease before it is placed in packages for dry storage or transportation. A computational model of a Boiling Water Reactor spent fuel assembly is modeled using FLUENT, the computational fluid dynamics package. Heat transfer simulations were performed on the two-dimensional 9x9 spent fuel assembly to predict the maximum cladding temperature for different input to the FLUENT model. Uncertainty quantification is used to predict the heat transfer and the maximum temperature profile inside the assembly.

Keywords: spent nuclear fuel, conduction, heat transfer, uncertainty quantification

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Authors: Shabnam Pashaei, Mohammadali Badamchizadeh

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This paper presents a new fractional-order terminal sliding mode control for synchronization of two different fractional-order chaotic systems with uncertainty and external disturbances. A fractional-order integral type nonlinear switching surface is presented. Then, using the Lyapunov stability theory and sliding mode theory, a fractional-order control law is designed to synchronize two different fractional-order chaotic systems. Finally, a simulation example is presented to illustrate the performance and applicability of the proposed method. Based on numerical results, the proposed controller ensures that the states of the controlled fractional-order chaotic response system are asymptotically synchronized with the states of the drive system.

Keywords: terminal sliding mode control, fractional-order calculus, chaotic systems, synchronization

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Authors: Adolfo Martucci, Iulian Mihai

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By means of the expansion through a Conical Nozzle and the low pressure inside the Test Chamber, a large hypersonic stable flow takes place for a duration of up to 30 minutes. Downstream the Test Chamber, the diffuser has the function of reducing the flow velocity to subsonic values, and as a consequence, the temperature increases again. In order to cool down the flow, a heat exchanger is present at the end of the diffuser. The Vacuum System generates the necessary vacuum conditions for the correct hypersonic flow generation, and the DeNOx system, which follows the Vacuum System, reduces the nitrogen oxide concentrations created inside the plasma flow behind the limits imposed by Italian law. This very large, powerful, and complex facility allows researchers and engineers to reproduce entire re-entry trajectories of space vehicles into the atmosphere. One of the most important parameters for a hypersonic flowfield representative of re-entry conditions is the specific total enthalpy. This is the whole energy content of the fluid, and it represents how severe could be the conditions around a spacecraft re-entering from a space mission or, in our case, inside a hypersonic wind tunnel. It is possible to reach very high values of enthalpy (up to 45 MJ/kg) that, together with the large allowable size of the models, represent huge possibilities for making on-ground experiments regarding the atmospheric re-entry field. The maximum nozzle exit section diameter is 1950 mm, where values of Mach number very much higher than 1 can be reached. The specific total enthalpy is evaluated by means of a number of measurements, each of them concurring with its value and its uncertainty. The scope of the present paper is the evaluation of the sensibility of the uncertainty of the specific total enthalpy versus all the parameters and measurements involved. The sensors that, if improved, could give the highest advantages have so been individuated. Several simulations in Python with the METAS library and by means of Monte Carlo simulations are presented together with the obtained results and discussions about them.

Keywords: hypersonic, uncertainty, enthalpy, simulations

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Authors: Hatice Idil Gorgen

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Turkey has been investing in its national defence industrial base since the 1980s. State’s role in defence industry showed differences in Turkey. Parallel with this, ruling group’s attitude toward companies in defence sector varied. These changes in policies and behaviors of the state have occurred throughout such milestones as political and economic turmoil in domestic and international level. Hence, it is argued that state’s role, relations with private companies in defense sector and its policies towards the defense industry has shown differences due to the international system, political institutions, ideas and political coalitions in Turkey since the 1980s. Therefore, in order to see changes in the role of the state in defence sector, this paper aims to indicate first, history of state’s role in production and defence industry in the post-1980s era. Secondly, to comprehend the changes in the state’s role in defence industry, Stephan Haggard’s sources of policy change will be provided in the theoretical ground. Thirdly, state cooperated, and joint venture defence firms, state’s actions toward them will be observed. The remaining part will explore the underlying reasons for the changes in the role of the state in defence industry, and it implicitly or explicitly impacts on state business relations. Major findings illustrate that targeted idea of self-sufficient or autarky Turkey to attract domestic audience and to raise the prestige through defence system; ruling elites can regard defence industry and involved business groups as a mean for their ends. State dominant value, sensitive perception which has been ever since Ottoman Empire, prioritizes business groups in defence industry compared to others and push the ruling elites to pursue hard power in defence sectors. Through the globally structural transformation in defence industry, integration of Turkey to liberal bloc deepened and widened interdependence among states. Although it is a qualitative study, it involves the numerated data and descriptive statistics. Data will be collected by searching secondary sources from the literature, examining official documents of ministry of defence, and other appropriate ministries.

Keywords: defense industry, state and business relations, public private relations, arm industry

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Authors: Eddiebal P. Layco

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The purpose of this study is to describe students' virtual classroom relationships in terms of their relationship to their peers and teachers; academic resilience; and performance. Further, the researcher wants to examine if these virtual classroom relations predict students' resilience and performance in their academics. The data were collected from 720 junior and senior high school or grade 7 to 12 students in selected state universities and colleges (SUCs) in Region III offering online or virtual classes during S.Y. 2020-2021. Results revealed that virtual classroom relationships such as teacher-student and peer relationships predict academic resilience and performance. This implies that students' academic relations with their teachers and peers have something to do with their ability to bounce back and beat the odds amidst challenges they faced in the online or virtual learning environment. These virtual relationships significantly influence also their academic performance. Adequate teacher support and positive peer relations may lead to enhanced academic resilience, which may also promote a meaningful and fulfilled life academically. Result suggests that teachers should develop their students' academic resiliency and maintain good relationships in the classroom since these results in academic success.

Keywords: virtual classroom relationships, teacher-pupil relationship, peer-relationship, academic resilience, academic performance

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Authors: Leyi Wang

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The effect of religion on conflicts is usually over-focused. Religion is not the root cause of conflicts. There are always social, political or economic factors pushing the acceleration of conflicts. Meanwhile, the charisma of religion on calling for adherents is often utilized by political leaders as a tool of providing legitimacy to the initiating of violence and mobilizing the public during conflicts. What people identify from the connections between religion and conflicts is fake. There are some strategies used by politicians to upgrade the conflicts into violence. Consequently, there are some assumptions of which try to limit the religion’s effects on accelerating conflicts. This essay aims to discuss the roles of religion in international relations and argues that the religion difference is not the real source of conflicts in the globe, by reviewing the relevant literature for understanding the research background and gap of this topic. Also, this essay will suggest some implementations on dealing with the regional conflicts.

Keywords: religion, conflicts, criticism, international relations

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Authors: Shabnam Dadparvar, Laijin Shen, Farzad Ravanbod

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Regarding the issues that are currently happening in the world, more than any other time the differences between West and Islam is under discussion. The cultural relations between Islam and the West took a drastically new turn when Europe arose as the dominant and unchallenged force of the modern era. The author, by using descriptive- analytical method, tries to analyse one of the most controversial questions facing analysts of relations between the Islamic world and the West: What are the roots of the conflict? This paper addresses the history of the intellectual tradition of the West and the attitude of Muslim world regarding the rise of western modernity. Also, the differences between two groups on philosophical foundations such as religion, power, science and humanism will be explained. The author believes that the real difference between the West and Islam is epistemological.

Keywords: civilization, culture, Islam, West

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Authors: Marzena Świgoń

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Nowadays, graduates should be prepared for serious challenges in the internal and external labor market. The notion that a degree is a “passport to employment” has been relegated to the past. In the last few years a phenomenon in the form of the increasing unemployment of highly educated young people in EU countries, including Poland has been observed. Empirical studies were conducted among Polish students in the scope of the so-called self-perceived employability review. In this study, a special scale was used which consisted of 19 statements regarding five components: student’s perception of university; field of study; self-belief; state of the external labor market; and, personal knowledge management. The respondent group consisted of final-year master’s students of International Relations at the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland. The findings of the empirical studies were compiled using statistical methods: descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. In general, in light of the conducted studies, the self-perceived employability of the Polish students was not high. Limitations of the studies were discussed, as well as the implications for future research in the scope of the students’ employability.

Keywords: self-perceived employability, students of international relations, university students, students employability

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Authors: Katarzyna Czarnota, Inga Hajdarowicz

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Political mechanisms of legal, social and economic segregation of refugees and migrants have reproduced and deepened existing hierarchies and inequalities in global labour relations. The consequences of these processes strengthened by current, so called, ‘refugee crisis’, tightening of border regimes, militarisation and closing of Balkan Route, will have a significant impact on future integration policies. One of the fields that require further research is limited access to labour rights of migrants and refugees. Although this phenomenon is experienced by a significant proportion of migrant population, these are the poorest who are also exposed to economic racism. The presentation will tackle the influence of current migration policies on increasing social and class inequalities between migrants, refugees, on the example of Syrian labours in Turkish textile factories. The authors will critically analyse examples of integration policies, especially planned changes in labour law as well as examples of violation of labour rights and exploitation of refugees and migrants in textile factories and industry. The presentation will be based on interviews with Syrian workers, conducted in Turkey and Greece in 2016.

Keywords: refugee crisis, economic racism, global labour relations, exploatation

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Authors: Mohamed Dhouibi, Bogdan Stirbu, Chabotier André, Marc Pirlot

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Internal barrel wear is a major factor affecting the performance of small caliber guns in their different life phases. Wear analysis is, therefore, a very important process for understanding how wear occurs, where it takes place, and how it spreads with the aim on improving the accuracy and effectiveness of small caliber weapons. This paper discusses the measurement and analysis of combustion chamber wear for a small-caliber gun using a Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM). Initially, two different NATO small caliber guns: 5.56x45mm and 7.62x51mm, are considered. A Micura Zeiss Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM) equipped with the VAST XTR gold high-end sensor is used to measure the inner profile of the two guns every 300-shot cycle. The CMM parameters, such us (i) the measuring force, (ii) the measured points, (iii) the time of masking, and (iv) the scanning velocity, are investigated. In order to ensure minimum measurement error, a statistical analysis is adopted to select the reliable CMM parameters combination. Next, two measurement strategies are developed to capture the shape and the volume of each gun chamber. Thus, a task-specific measurement uncertainty (TSMU) analysis is carried out for each measurement plan. Different approaches of TSMU evaluation have been proposed in the literature. This paper discusses two different techniques. The first is the substitution method described in ISO 15530 part 3. This approach is based on the use of calibrated workpieces with similar shape and size as the measured part. The second is the Monte Carlo simulation method presented in ISO 15530 part 4. Uncertainty evaluation software (UES), also known as the Virtual Coordinate Measuring Machine (VCMM), is utilized in this technique to perform a point-by-point simulation of the measurements. To conclude, a comparison between both approaches is performed. Finally, the results of the measurements are verified through calibrated gauges of several dimensions specially designed for the two barrels. On this basis, an experimental database is developed for further analysis aiming to quantify the relationship between the volume of wear and the muzzle velocity of small caliber guns.

Keywords: coordinate measuring machine, measurement uncertainty, erosion and wear volume, small caliber guns

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty

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Authors: Yanqun Li, Hong Geng

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The occurrence of Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 has led to severe damage to the rural areas of Chengdu city, such as the rupture of the social network, the stagnation of economic production and the rupture of living space. The post-disaster reconstruction has become a sustainable issue. As an important link to maintain the order of rural social development, social network should be an important content of post-disaster reconstruction. Therefore, this paper takes rural reconstruction communities in earthquake-stricken areas of Chengdu as the research object and adopts sociological research methods such as field survey, observation and interview to try to understand the transformation of rural social relations network under the influence of earthquake and its impact on rural space. It has found that rural societies under the earthquake generally experienced three phases: the break of stable social relations, the transition of temporary non-normal state, and the reorganization of social networks. The connotation of phased rural social relations also changed accordingly: turn to a new division of labor on the social orientation, turn to a capital flow and redistribution in new production mode on the capital orientation, and turn to relative decentralization after concentration on the spatial dimension. Along with such changes, rural areas have emerged some social issues such as the alienation of competition in the new industry division, the low social connection, the significant redistribution of capital, and the lack of public space. Based on a comprehensive review of these issues, this paper proposes the corresponding response mechanism. First of all, a reasonable division of labor should be established within the villages to realize diversified commodity supply. Secondly, the villages should adjust the industrial type to promote the equitable participation of capital allocation groups. Finally, external public spaces should be added to strengthen the field of social interaction within the communities.

Keywords: social relations, social support networks, industrial division, capital allocation, public space

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Authors: Y. Wang, S. Zhang, X. Chen

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The longitudinal compressive strength of fibre reinforced plastic (FRP) possess a large stochastic variability, which limits efficient application of composite structures. This study aims to address how the random fibre packing affects the uncertainty of FRP compressive strength. An novel approach is proposed to generate random fibre packing status by a combination of Latin hypercube sampling and random sequential expansion. 3D nonlinear finite element model is built which incorporates both the matrix plasticity and fibre geometrical instability. The matrix is modeled by isotropic ideal elasto-plastic solid elements, and the fibres are modeled by linear-elastic rebar elements. Composite with a series of different nominal fibre volume fractions are studied. Premature fibre waviness at different magnitude and direction is introduced in the finite element model. Compressive tests on uni-directional CFRP (carbon fibre reinforced plastic) are conducted following the ASTM D6641. By a comparison of 3D FE models and compressive tests, it is clearly shown that the stochastic variation of compressive strength is partly caused by the random fibre packing, and normal or lognormal distribution tends to be a good fit the probabilistic compressive strength. Furthermore, it is also observed that different random fibre packing could trigger two different fibre micro-buckling modes while subjected to longitudinal compression: out-of-plane buckling and twisted buckling. The out-of-plane buckling mode results much larger compressive strength, and this is the major reason why the random fibre packing results a large uncertainty in the FRP compressive strength. This study would contribute to new approaches to the quality control of FRP considering higher compressive strength or lower uncertainty.

Keywords: compressive strength, FRP, micro-buckling, random fibre packing

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Authors: Emmanuela Ngozi Maduka

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In Nigeria, civil-military relations is at its lowest point as a result of the challenges emanating from incessant initiation of military aid to civil authorities (MACA) for internal security operations. This paper is concerned with the question whether it is appropriate for the military to handle internal security crisis with exception to terrorism and armed militia. It analyses the legal framework for MACA in internal security operations which appear to be in contradiction with military tactical and equipment training. The paper argues that the expectation that transitional re-training of the military for internal security operations will reconcile these inconsistencies specifically on the issue of use of force is not practicable and will always pose challenges for both the military and the citizens. Accordingly, this paper adopts a socio-legal methodology for better clarity on the interactions between the legal framework on MACA and military internal security operations. The paper also identifies the lack of effective and proficient paramilitary within the security design of Nigeria as the key issue which results in incessant initiation of MACA and advocates for the establishment of an effective and proficient paramilitary to effectively handle internal security crisis within Nigeria.

Keywords: civil-military relations, MACA, military training, operational challenges, paramilitary, use of force

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Authors: Iulia Elena Gîță

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According to the sociological theory of literature, constraints on the creation and share of cultural works can be placed between two extremes: one with a high level of politicization and the other with a high level of commercialization. The overall objective of the present research is to follow the principles of Sociology of Translation to closely map and analyse the publishing activity of Romania concerning China and Chinese literature during four stages of Romanian history between 1948-2018. This paper proposes, thus, an extended approach to literature, to its cultural, political and economic reception. In achieving the proposed objectives, the research expands far beyond the literary text itself, to its macro context, analysing, through quantitative research methods, a statistical database created based on two phases - the first part containing literary and non-fictional works that address and discuss issues related to China; the second part includes literary translations of Chinese literature into Romanian, either by direct translation or by an intermediate language. Throughout this paper we will map not only the number of works, but also the topics approached by writers along the two periods of the political life of Romania.

Keywords: bilateral relations, Chinese literature, intercultural understanding, international relations, socio-cultural reception, socio-political constraints, publishing

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Authors: Cristian Patrascioiu, Loredana Negoita

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This paper is focused on modeling and simulation of the tubular heaters. The paper is structured in four parts: the structure of the tubular convection section, the heat transfer model, the adaptation of the mathematical model and the solving model. The main hypothesis of the heat transfer modeling is that the heat exchanger of the convective tubular heater is a lumped system. In the same time, the model uses the heat balance relations, Newton’s law and criteria relations. The numerical program achieved allows for the estimation of the burn gases outlet temperature and the heated flow outlet temperature.

Keywords: heat exchanger, mathematical modelling, nonlinear equation system, Newton-Raphson algorithm

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Authors: Jing Qing-feng, Liu Danmei

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Based on the optimum detection, signal projection and Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) rule, Proakis has deduced the theoretical BER equation of Gray coded MPSK signals. Proakis analyzed the BER theoretical equations mainly based on the projection of signals, which is difficult to be understood. This article solve the same problem based on the signal space, which explains the vectors relations among the sending signals, received signals and noises. The more explicit and easy-deduced process is illustrated in this article based on the signal space, which can illustrated the relations among the signals and noises clearly. This kind of deduction has a univocal geometry meaning. It can explain the correlation between the production and calculation of BER in vector level.

Keywords: MPSK, MAP, signal space, BER

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Authors: Belkacem Laimouche

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With the field of artificial intelligence (AI) experiencing exponential growth, fueled by technological advancements that pave the way for increasingly innovative and promising applications, there is an escalating need to develop rigorous methods for assessing their performance in pursuit of transparency and equity. This article proposes a metrology-inspired statistical framework for evaluating bias and explainability in AI systems. Drawing from the principles of metrology, we propose a pioneering approach, using a concrete example, to evaluate the accuracy and precision of AI models, as well as to quantify the sources of measurement uncertainty that can lead to bias in their predictions. Furthermore, we explore a statistical approach for evaluating the explainability of AI systems based on their ability to provide interpretable and transparent explanations of their predictions.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, metrology, measurement uncertainty, prediction error, bias, machine learning algorithms, probabilistic models, interlaboratory comparison, data analysis, data reliability, measurement of bias impact on predictions, improvement of model accuracy and reliability

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Authors: Bhavana Mahajan

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International Relations is a discipline of paradoxes. The State is the dominant political institution, yet little attention has been accorded to why individual countries behave the way they do with the theoretical analysis dismissing the State as a reactionary monolith – thus States either play to “quest for power” or to “systemic” forces. However, States do behave as and are influenced by agents when interacting with international structures as well as with other states. While questions on “competitive power politics” and “trust” have been examined and developed to a fair extent by International Relations theorists in the post 1990s period, their application to the domain of South Asian politics is limited and little research, if any, examines the conduct of foreign policy beyond rational choice. This paper is an initial attempt to marry these theoretical insights with the foreign policy exercised by India especially the case of the “Gujral Doctrine, as one of “non-reciprocal accommodation”. Ignoring the view that such a policy move can be viewed as political “feinting” or deception, it is noteworthy that India even made the first move in terms of defining its role as one who “trusts” rather than one who “seeks” to trust, given the country’s geo-strategic context and threat perceptions.

Keywords: India’s foreign policy, South Asia, social constructivism, English school, trusting relationships, Gujral Doctrine, rationality

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Authors: Poramet Saeng-On

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This research aims to develop ways of lodging business management of Bang Khonthi community in Samut Songkram province that are appropriate with the cultural context of the Bang Khonthi community. Eight lodging business owners were interviewed. It was found that lodging business that are family business must be done with passion, correct understanding of self, culture, nature, Thai way of life, thorough, professional development, environmentally concerned, building partnerships with various networks both community level, and public sector and business cohorts. Public relations should be done through media both traditional and modern outlets, such as websites and social networks to provide customers convenience, security, happiness, knowledge, love and value when travel to Bang Khonthi. This will also help them achieve sustainability in business, in line with the 10 Home Stay Standard Thailand. Suggestions for operators are as follows: Operators need to improve their public relations work. They need to use technology in public relations such as the internet. Management standards must be improved. Souvenir and local products shops should be arranged in the compound. Product pricing must be set accordingly. They need to join hands to help each other. Quality of the business operation should be raised to meet the standards. Educational measures to reduce the impact caused by tourism on the community such as efforts to reduce energy consumption.

Keywords: homestay, lodging business, management, standard

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Authors: Samira Alvandi

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In the context of the circular economy, production planning aims to eliminate waste and emissions and maximize resource efficiency. Historically production planning is challenged through arrays of uncertainty and complexity arising from the interdependence and variability of products, processes, and systems. Manufacturers worldwide are facing new challenges in tackling various environmental issues such as climate change, resource depletion, and land degradation. In managing the inherited complexity and uncertainty and yet maintaining profitability, the manufacturing sector is in need of a holistic framework that supports energy efficiency and carbon emission reduction schemes. The proposed framework addresses the current challenges and integrates simulation modeling with optimization for finding optimal machine-job allocation to maximize throughput and total energy consumption while minimizing lead time. The aluminium refinery facility in western Sydney, Australia, is used as an exemplar to validate the proposed framework.

Keywords: smart production planning, simulation-optimisation, energy aware capacity planning, energy intensive industries

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Authors: Hao Zhang, Hongyang Yu

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Scale uncertainty is a well-known challenging problem in visual SLAM. Because RGB-D sensor provides depth information, RGB-D SLAM improves this scale uncertainty problem. However, due to the limitation of physical hardware, the depth map output by RGB-D sensor usually contains a large area of missing depth values. These missing depth information affect the accuracy and robustness of RGB-D SLAM. In order to reduce these effects, this paper completes the missing area of the depth map output by RGB-D sensor and then fuses the completed dense depth map into ORB SLAM2. By adding the process of obtaining pixel-level dense depth maps, a better RGB-D visual SLAM algorithm is finally obtained. In the process of obtaining dense depth maps, a deep learning model of indoor scenes is adopted. Experiments are conducted on public datasets and real-world environments of indoor scenes. Experimental results show that the proposed SLAM algorithm has better robustness than ORB SLAM2.

Keywords: RGB-D, SLAM, dense depth, depth map

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Authors: Idit Miller

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This paper examines the effect of a common organizational identity on intergroup relations of Israeli-Jews and non-Israeli Palestinians medical interns who are employed together within the Israeli hospitals, while asymmetrical relationships and ongoing conflict between the two groups still exist. Using mixed theory, which included the Intergroup contact, Othering, and the Common social identity theories, the study examines the intra-organizational identities dynamic involved within the hospital department and its effects on intergroup relations. In-depth, semi-structured interviews with the Palestinian and Jews physicians were conducted. Findings show three social identity responses are being constructed during the shared employment: Them vs. Us construction, Them vs. Us deconstruction, and an 'Organizational Us' reconstruction. Despite the inequality inherent within the intergroup relations, by holding a universal identity and using a deconstruction pattern, positive emotions are demonstrated by both sides. The adoption of a shared professional super-identity is found as an essential component for fostering and maintaining positive attitudes between the parties. This finding strengthens the significance of a long-term continuous intergroup contact inside the organization and especially between two polarized groups.

Keywords: common social identity theory, intergroup contact theory, inequality, intergroup conflict, othering theory

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Authors: Ameen Alshugaa, Abul Mansur Masih

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This paper sheds light on the economic impacts of political uncertainty caused by the civil uprisings that swept the Arab World and have been collectively known as the Arab Spring. Measuring documented effects of political uncertainty on regional stock market indices, we examine the impact of the Arab Spring on the volatility of stock markets in eight countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: Egypt, Lebanon, Jordon, United Arab Emirate, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait. This analysis also permits testing the existence of financial contagion among equity markets in the MENA region during the Arab Spring. To capture the time-varying and multi-horizon nature of the evidence of volatility and contagion in the eight MENA stock markets, we apply two robust methodologies on consecutive data from November 2008 to March 2014: MGARCH-DCC, Continuous Wavelet Transforms (CWT). Our results indicate two key findings. First, the discrepancies between volatile stock markets of countries directly impacted by the Arab Spring and countries that were not directly impacted indicate that international investors may still enjoy portfolio diversification and investment in MENA markets. Second, the lack of financial contagion during the Arab Spring suggests that there is little evidence of cointegration among MENA markets. Providing a general analysis of the economic situation and the investment climate in the MENA region during and after the Arab Spring, this study bear significant importance for policy makers, local and international investors, and market regulators.

Keywords: Portfolio Diversification , MENA Region , Stock Market Indices, MGARCH-DCC, Wavelet Analysis, CWT

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Authors: Desmond Agbolade Ademola

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This work aimed to introduce a theory, called Guided Energy Theory of a particle that answered questions that arise from quantum foundation, quantum mechanics theory, and interpretation such as: what is nature of wavefunction? Is mathematical formalism of wavefunction correct? Does wavefunction collapse during measurement? Do quantum physical entanglement and many world interpretations really exist? In addition, is there uncertainty in the physical reality of our nature as being concluded in the Quantum theory? We have been able to show by the fundamental analysis presented in this work that the way quantum mechanics theory, and interpretation describes nature is not correlated with physical reality. Because, we discovered amongst others that, (1) Guided energy theory of a particle fundamentally provides complete physical observable series of quantized measurement of a particle momentum, force, energy e.t.c. in a given distance and time.In contrast, quantum mechanics wavefunction describes that nature has inherited probabilistic and indeterministic physical quantities, resulting in unobservable physical quantities that lead to many worldinterpretation.(2) Guided energy theory of a particle fundamentally predicts that it is mathematically possible to determine precise quantized measurementof position and momentum of a particle simultaneously. Because, there is no uncertainty in nature; nature however naturally guides itself against uncertainty. Contrary to the conclusion in quantum mechanics theory that, it is mathematically impossible to determine the position and the momentum of a particle simultaneously. Furthermore, we have been able to show by this theory that, it is mathematically possible to determine quantized measurement of force acting on a particle simultaneously, which is not possible on the premise of quantum mechanics theory. (3) It is evidently shown by our theory that, guided energy does not collapse, only describes the lopsided nature of a particle behavior in motion. This pretty offers us insight on gradual process of engagement - convergence and disengagement – divergence of guided energy holders which further highlight the picture how wave – like behavior return to particle-like behavior and how particle – like behavior return to wave – like behavior respectively. This further proves that the particles’ behavior in motion is oscillatory in nature. The mathematical formalism of Guided energy theory shows that nature is certainty whereas the mathematical formalism of Quantum mechanics theory shows that nature is absolutely probabilistics. In addition, the nature of wavefunction is the guided energy of the wave. In conclusion, the fundamental mathematical formalism of Quantum mechanics theory is wrong.

Keywords: momentum, physical entanglement, wavefunction, uncertainty

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Authors: Nitin Singh, Meng Ling, Talha Ahmed, Tianxia Zhao, Reinier van de Pol

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We propose the use of reinforcement learning (RL) as a viable alternative for optimizing supply chain management, particularly in scenarios with stochasticity in product demands. RL’s adaptability to changing conditions and its demonstrated success in diverse fields of sequential decision-making makes it a promising candidate for addressing supply chain problems. We investigate the impact of demand fluctuations in a multi-product supply chain system and develop RL agents with learned generalizable policies. We provide experimentation details for training RL agents and statistical analysis of the results. We study the generalization ability of RL agents for different demand uncertainty scenarios and observe superior performance compared to the agents trained with fixed demand curves. The proposed methodology has the potential to lead to cost reduction and increased profit for companies dealing with frequent inventory movement between supply and demand nodes.

Keywords: inventory management, reinforcement learning, supply chain optimization, uncertainty

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Authors: Michał Jaśkiewicz

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The relation between walkability, place adherence, social relations and quality of life was explored in a Polish context. A considerable number of studies have suggested that environmental factors may influence the quality of life through indirect pathways. The list of possible psychological mediators includes social relations and identity-related variables. Based on the results of Study 1, local identity is a significant mediator in the relationship between neighbourhood walkability and quality of life. It was assumed that pedestrian-oriented neighbourhoods enable residents to interact and that these spontaneous interactions can help to strengthen a sense of local identity, thus influencing the quality of life. We, therefore, conducted further studies, testing the relationship experimentally in studies 2a and 2b. Participants were exposed to (2a) photos of walkable/non-walkable neighbourhoods or (2b) descriptions of high/low-walkable neighbourhoods. They were then asked to assess the walkability of the neighbourhoods and to evaluate their potential social relations and quality of life in these places. In both studies, social relations with neighbours turned out to be a significant mediator between walkability and quality of life. In Study 3, we implemented the measure of overlapping individual and communal identity (fusion with the neighbourhood) and willingness to collective action as mediators. Living in a walkable neighbourhood was associated with identity fusion with that neighbourhood. Participants who felt more fused expressed greater willingness to engage in collective action with other neighbours. Finally, this willingness was positively related to the quality of life in the city. In Study 4, we used commuting time (an aspect of walkability related to the time that people spend travelling to work) as the independent variable. The results showed that a shorter average daily commuting time was linked to more frequent social interactions in the neighbourhood. Individuals who assessed their social interactions as more frequent expressed a stronger city identification, which was in turn related to quality of life. To sum up, our research replicated and extended previous findings on the association between walkability and well-being measures. We introduced potential mediators of this relationship: social interactions in the neighbourhood and identity-related variables.

Keywords: walkability, quality of life, social relations, analysis of mediation

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Authors: Mehrdad Abkenari, Mehmet Kunt, Mahdi Nourollahi

Abstract:

Evaluating the environmental risk factors is a combination of analysis of transportation effects. Various definitions for risk can be found in different scientific sources. Each definition depends on a specific and particular perspective or dimension. The effects of potential risks present along the new proposed routes and existing infrastructures of large transportation projects like railways should be studied under comprehensive engineering frameworks. Despite various definitions provided for ‘risk’, all include a uniform concept. Two obvious aspects, loss and unreliability, have always been pointed in all definitions of this term. But, selection as the third aspect is usually implied and means how one notices it. Currently, conducting engineering studies on the environmental effects of railway projects have become obligatory according to the Environmental Assessment Act in developing countries. Considering the longitudinal nature of these projects and probable passage of railways through various ecosystems, scientific research on the environmental risk of these projects have become of great interest. Although many areas of expertise such as road construction in developing countries have not seriously committed to these studies yet, attention to these subjects in establishment or implementation of different systems have become an inseparable part of this wave of research. The present study used environmental risks identified and existing in previous studies and stations to use in next step. The second step proposes a new hybrid approach of analytical network process (ANP) and DEMATEL in fuzzy conditions for assessment of determined risks. Since evaluation of identified risks was not an easy touch, mesh structure was an appropriate approach for analyzing complex systems which were accordingly employed for problem description and modeling. Researchers faced the shortage of real space data and also due to the ambiguity of experts’ opinions and judgments, they were declared in language variables instead of numerical ones. Since fuzzy logic is appropriate for ambiguity and uncertainty, formulation of experts’ opinions in the form of fuzzy numbers seemed an appropriate approach. Fuzzy DEMATEL method was used to extract the relations between major and minor risk factors. Considering the internal relations of risk major factors and its sub-factors in the analysis of fuzzy network, the weight of risk’s main factors and sub-factors were determined. In general, findings of the present study, in which effective railway environmental risk indicators were theoretically identified and rated through the first usage of combined model of DEMATEL and fuzzy network analysis, indicate that environmental risks can be evaluated more accurately and also employed in railway projects.

Keywords: DEMATEL, ANP, fuzzy, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 384

Authors: Rosa Sobreira, Paula Arriscado

Abstract:

Marketers are aware that media relations is an important touch point, which is also cheaper, to bring their products and their brands to the consumer. They recognize the role of journalists as moderators and transformers of public opinion, and they realize their influence on brand image. And also, they know that readers, listeners, viewers and internet users "believe" more what they read, hear and see in the news than in an advertisement. The study is focused on the automotive industry and analyses the news published about three brands that share industrial facilities and components. We wanted to understand the role of the information created by the brand`s media team in the journalists’ work, and the impact on management, activation and differentiation of brands and their products` attributes and benefits. Based on a qualitative methodology, the analysis focused on press news, making comparison between media coverage and their “narratives” about the three cars from different brands. The results point to the fact that journalists easily integrate speech from the marks on their products. In the case of this study, we found that apart from the description of the many similarities between the three cars, the average speech also "struggled" for revealing the attributes that differentiate them. This interpretation of the results helps us to understand the "marriage" between branding and media. We believe also this paper let us to understand how journalists, through news, join the speech of the brands.

Keywords: brand management, media relations, differentiation, positioning

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: Faisal Alshuwaier, Ali Areshey

Abstract:

Text mining techniques are generally applied for classifying the text, finding fuzzy relations and structures in data sets. This research provides plenty text mining capabilities. One common application is text classification and event extraction, which encompass deducing specific knowledge concerning incidents referred to in texts. The main contribution of this paper is the clarification of a concept graph generation mechanism, which is based on a text classification and optimal fuzzy relationship extraction. Furthermore, the work presented in this paper explains the application of fuzzy relationship extraction and branch and bound method to simplify the texts.

Keywords: extraction, max-prod, fuzzy relations, text mining, memberships, classification, memberships, classification

Procedia PDF Downloads 548