Search results for: uncertainty relations

Authors: Elias Udeaja, Elijah Udoh

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Exploring an extended SVAR model (SVAR-X), we use the case of Nigeria to hypothesize for the role of uncertainty as the underlying source of asymmetries in the response of monetary policy to output and inflation. Deciphered the empirical finding is the potential of monetary policy exhibiting greater sensitive to shocks due to output growth than they do to shocks due to inflation in recession periods, while the reverse appears to be the case for a contractionary monetary policy. We also find the asymmetric preference in the response of monetary policy to changes in output and inflation as relatively more pronounced when we control for uncertainty as the underlying source of asymmetries.

Keywords: asymmetry response, developing economies, monetary policy shocks, uncertainty

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Authors: Marine Kobalava

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Modern forms of public relations function in an integrated manner together with marketing communication in business companies. This ensures continuity of communication, elimination of duplication in activities, reduction of costs, and strengthening and efficient use of communication means. There exist a number of challenges in implementing integrated forms of public relations in Georgia, especially in terms of marketing communications and strategies. Objectives: The goal of the study is to reveal public relations challenges in Georgian business companies and to develop recommendations along with perfecting marketing communications and strategies. Methodologies: Bibliographic and empirical research has been conducted. Analysis, induction, synthesis, and other methods have been used. Contributions: The challenges of Public relations in Georgia are identified; the perception of different population groups on integrated forms of PR is determined; effective forms of marketing communication are defined; mechanisms for developing marketing strategies are proposed.

Keywords: public relations, challenges, marketing communication, strategy

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Authors: Balasundaram Prasaant, Ploix Stephane, Delinchant Benoit, Muresan Cristian

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Hardware in Loop (HIL) testing is done to test and validate a particular product especially in building technology. When it comes to building technology, it is more important to test the products for their efficiency. The test rig in the HIL simulator may contribute to some uncertainties on measured efficiency. The uncertainties include physical uncertainties and scenario-based uncertainties. In this paper, a simple uncertainty analysis framework for an HIL setup is shown considering only the physical uncertainties. The entire modeling of the HIL setup is done in Dymola. The uncertain sources are considered based on available knowledge of the components and also on expert knowledge. For the propagation of uncertainty, Monte Carlo Simulation is used since it is the most reliable and easy to use. In this article it is shown how an HIL setup can be modeled and how uncertainty propagation can be performed on it. Such an approach is not common in building energy analysis.

Keywords: energy in buildings, hardware in loop testing, modelica modelling, Monte Carlo simulation, uncertainty propagation

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Authors: Marine Kobalava, Eter Narimanishvili, Nino Grigolaia

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The paper analyzes the contemporary problems of public relations in Georgia. The approaches to public attitudes towards the relationship with the population of the country are studied on a global scale, the importance of forming the concept of public relations in Georgia in terms of globalization is justified. The basic components of public relations are characterized by the RACE system, namely analyzing research, action, communication, evaluation. The main challenges of public relations are identified in the research process; taking into consideration the scope of globalization, the influence of social, economic, and political changes in Georgia on PR development are identified. The article discusses the public relations as the strategic management function that facilitates communication with the society, recognition of public interests, and their prediction. In addition, the feminization of the sector is considered to be the most important achievement of public relations in the modern world. The conclusion is that the feminization indicator of the field is an unconditional increase in the employment rates of women. In the paper, the problems of globalization and public relations in the industrial countries are studied, the directions of improvement of public relations with the background of peculiarities of different countries and globalization process are proposed. Public relations under globalization are assessed in accordance with the theory of benefits and requirements, and the requirements are classified according to informational, self-identification, integration, social interaction, and other types of signs. In the article, conclusions on the current challenges of public relations in Georgia are made, and the recommendations for their solution, taking into consideration globalization processes in the world, are proposed.

Keywords: public relations, globalization, RACE system, public relationship concept, feminization

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Authors: Sandra Adarve, Jhon Osorio

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Uncertainty has been studied in patients with different types of cancer, except in patients with hematologic cancer and undergoing transplantation. The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with uncertainty in adults patients with malignant hemato-oncology diseases who are scheduled to undergo hematopoietic stem cell transplantation based on Merle Mishel´s Uncertainty theory. This was a cross-sectional study with an analytical purpose. The study sample included 50 patients with leukemia, myeloma, and lymphoma selected by non-probability sampling by convenience and intention. Sociodemographic and clinical variables were measured. Mishel´s Scale of Uncertainty in Illness was used for the measurement of uncertainty. A bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed to explore the relationships and associations between the different variables and uncertainty level. For this analysis, the distribution of the uncertainty scale values was evaluated through the Shapiro-Wilk normality test to identify statistical tests to be used. A multivariate analysis was conducted through a logistic regression using step-by-step technique. Patients were 18-74 years old, with a mean age of 44.8. Over time, the disease course had a median of 9.5 months, an opportunity was found in the performance of the transplantation of < 20 days for 50% of the patients. Regarding the uncertainty scale, a mean score of 95.46 was identified. When the dimensions of the scale were analyzed, the mean score of the framework of stimuli was 25.6, of cognitive ability was 47.4 and structure providers was 22.8. Age was identified to correlate with the total uncertainty score (p=0.012). Additionally, a statistically significant difference was evidenced between different religious creeds and uncertainty score (p=0.023), education level (p=0.012), family history of cancer (p=0.001), the presence of comorbidities (p=0.023) and previous radiotherapy treatment (p=0.022). After performing logistic regression, previous radiotherapy treatment (OR=0.04 IC95% (0.004-0.48)) and family history of cancer (OR=30.7 IC95% (2.7-349)) were found to be factors associated with the high level of uncertainty. Uncertainty is present in high levels in patients who are going to be subjected to bone marrow transplantation, and it is the responsibility of the nurse to assess the levels of uncertainty and the presence of factors that may contribute to their presence. Once it has been valued, the uncertainty must be intervened from the identified associated factors, especially all those that have to do with the cognitive capacity. This implies the implementation and design of intervention strategies to improve the knowledge related to the disease and the therapeutic procedures to which the patients will be subjected. All interventions should favor the adaptation of these patients to their current experience and contribute to seeing uncertainty as an opportunity for growth and transcendence.

Keywords: hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, hematologic diseases, nursing, uncertainty

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

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Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).

Keywords: control, human factor, optimization, risk management, uncertainty

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Authors: Shunichi Ohmori, Sirawadee Arunyanart, Kazuho Yoshimoto

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We consider a periodic review inventory control problem of minimizing production cost, inventory cost, and lost-sales under demand uncertainty, in which product demands are not specified exactly and it is only known to belong to a given uncertainty set, yet the constraints must hold for possible values of the data from the uncertainty set. We propose a robust optimization formulation for obtaining lowest cost possible and guaranteeing the feasibility with respect to range of order quantity and inventory level under demand uncertainty. Our formulation is based on the adaptive robust counterpart, which suppose order quantity is affine function of past demands. We derive certainty equivalent problem via second-order cone programming, which gives 'not too pessimistic' worst-case.

Keywords: robust optimization, inventory control, supply chain managment, second-order programming

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Authors: Adem Öğüt, M. Tahir Demirsel

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Rapid changes and developments today, besides the opportunities and facilities they offer to the organization, may also be a source of danger and difficulties due to the uncertainty. In order to take advantage of opportunities and to take the necessary measures against possible uncertainties, organizations must always follow the changes and developments that occur in the business environment and develop flexible structures and strategies for the alternative cases. Perceived environmental uncertainty is an outcome of managers’ perceptions of the combined complexity, instability and unpredictability in the organizational environment. An environment that is perceived to be complex, changing rapidly, and difficult to predict creates high levels of uncertainty about the appropriate organizational responses to external circumstances. In an uncertain and complex environment, organizations experiencing cutthroat competition may be successful by developing their corporate entrepreneurial ability. Corporate entrepreneurship is a process that includes many elements such as innovation, creating new business, renewal, risk-taking and being predictive. Successful corporate entrepreneurship is a critical factor which has a significant contribution to gain a sustainable competitive advantage, to renew the organization and to adapt the environment. In this context, the objective of this study is to investigate the effect of perceived environmental uncertainty of managers on corporate entrepreneurship performance. The research was conducted on 222 business executives in one of the major industrial zones of Turkey, Konya Organized Industrial Zone (KOS). According to the results, it has been observed that there is a positive statistically significant relationship between perceived environmental uncertainty and corporate entrepreneurial activities.

Keywords: corporate entrepreneurship, entrepreneurship, industrial zone, perceived environmental uncertainty, uncertainty

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Authors: Morteza Aien, Masoud Rashidinejad, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad

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As energetic and environmental issues are getting more and more attention all around the world, the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) mainly those harvesting renewable energies (REs) ascends with an unprecedented rate. This matter causes more uncertainties to appear in the power system context; ergo, the uncertainty analysis of the system performance is an obligation. The uncertainties of any system can be represented probabilistically or possibilistically. Since sufficient historical data about all the system variables is not available, therefore, they do not have a probability density function (PDF) and must be represented possibilistiacally. When some of system uncertain variables are probabilistic and some are possibilistic, neither the conventional pure probabilistic nor pure possibilistic methods can be implemented. Hence, a combined solution is appealed. The first of this two-paper series formulates a new possibilistic-probabilistic tool for the load flow uncertainty assessment. The proposed methodology is based on the evidence theory and joint propagation of possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainties. This possibilistic- probabilistic formulation is solved in the second companion paper in an uncertain load flow (ULF) study problem.

Keywords: probabilistic uncertainty modeling, possibilistic uncertainty modeling, uncertain load flow, wind turbine generator

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Authors: Pulak Swain, A. K. Ojha

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Portfolio optimization is based on dealing with the problems of efficient asset allocation. Risk and Expected return are two conflicting criteria in such problems, where the investor prefers the return to be high and the risk to be low. Using multi-objective approach we can solve those type of problems. However the information which we have for the input parameters are generally ambiguous and the input values can fluctuate around some nominal values. We can not ignore the uncertainty in input values, as they can affect the asset allocation drastically. So we use Robust Optimization approach to the problems where the input parameters comes under box uncertainty. In this paper, we solve the multi criteria robust problem with the help of  E- constraint method.

Keywords: portfolio optimization, multi-objective optimization, ϵ - constraint method, box uncertainty, robust optimization

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Authors: Mohammad Y. Badiee, Saeed Golestani, Mir Saman Pishvaee

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In recent years consumers and governments have been pushing companies to design their activities in such a way as to reduce negative environmental impacts by producing renewable product or threat free disposal policy more and more. It is therefore important to focus more accurate to the optimization of various aspect of total supply chain. Modeling a supply chain can be a challenging process due to the fact that there are a large number of factors that need to be considered in the model. The use of multi-objective optimization can lead to overcome those problems since more information is used when designing the model. Uncertainty is inevitable in real world. Considering uncertainty on parameters in addition to use multi-objectives are ways to give more flexibility to the decision making process since the process can take into account much more constraints and requirements. In this paper we demonstrate a stochastic scenario based robust model to cope with uncertainty in a closed-loop multi-objective supply chain. By applying the proposed model in a real world case, the power of proposed model in handling data uncertainty is shown.

Keywords: supply chain management, closed-loop supply chain, multi-objective optimization, goal programming, uncertainty, robust optimization

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Authors: Okay Gunes

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Unsatisfactory experiences due to an information shortage regarding the future pay-offs of actual choices, yield satisficing decision-making. This research will examine, for the first time in the literature, the motivation behind suboptimal decisions due to uncertainty by subjecting Adam Smith’s and Jeremy Bentham’s assumptions about the nature of the actions that lead to satisficing behavior, in order to clarify the theoretical background of a “consumption-based satisfactory time” concept. The contribution of this paper with respect to the existing literature is threefold: Firstly, it is showed in this paper that Adam Smith’s uncertainty is related to the problem of the constancy of ideas and not related directly to beliefs. Secondly, possessions, as in Jeremy Bentham’s oeuvre, are assumed to be just as pleasing, as protecting and improving the actual or expected quality of life, so long as they reduce any displeasure due to the undesired outcomes of uncertainty. Finally, each consumption decision incurs its own satisfactory time period, owed to not feeling hungry, being healthy, not having transportation…etc. This reveals that the level of satisfaction is indeed a behavioral phenomenon where its value would depend on the simultaneous satisfaction derived from all activities.

Keywords: decision-making, idea and belief, satisficing, uncertainty

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Authors: A. B. M. Rezaul Islam, Ernur Karadogan

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Shape memory alloys (SMAs) are known for their shape memory effect and pseudoelasticity behavior. Their thermomechanical behaviors are modeled by numerous researchers using microscopic thermodynamic and macroscopic phenomenological point of view. Tanaka, Liang-Rogers and Ivshin-Pence models are some of the most popular SMA macroscopic phenomenological constitutive models. They describe SMA behavior in terms of stress, strain and temperature. These models involve material parameters and they have associated uncertainty present in them. At different operating temperatures, the uncertainty propagates to the output when the material is subjected to loading followed by unloading. The propagation of uncertainty while utilizing these models in real-life application can result in performance discrepancies or failure at extreme conditions. To resolve this, we used probabilistic approach to perform the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of Tanaka, Liang-Rogers, and Ivshin-Pence models. Sobol and extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Testing (eFAST) methods have been used to perform the sensitivity analysis for simulated isothermal loading/unloading at various operating temperatures. As per the results, it is evident that the models vary due to the change in operating temperature and loading condition. The average and stress-dependent sensitivity indices present the most significant parameters at several temperatures. This work highlights the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis results and shows comparison of them at different temperatures and loading conditions for all these models. The analysis presented will aid in designing engineering applications by eliminating the probability of model failure due to the uncertainty in the input parameters. Thus, it is recommended to have a proper understanding of sensitive parameters and the uncertainty propagation at several operating temperatures and loading conditions as per Tanaka, Liang-Rogers, and Ivshin-Pence model.

Keywords: constitutive models, FAST sensitivity analysis, sensitivity analysis, sobol, shape memory alloy, uncertainty analysis

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Authors: Farid Abbasi

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Geographical spaces have different relations with each other, and especially neighboring geographical spaces have more relations than other spaces due to their proximity. Meanwhile, various parameters affect the relationships between these spaces, such as environmental parameters. These parameters have become important in recent decades, affecting the political relations of the actors in neighboring spaces. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Turkey, as two actors in the region, political relations seem to have been affected to some extent by environmental issues. Based on this, the present study tries to examine and analyze the political relations between the two countries from an environmental, and geopolitical perspective. The method of this research is descriptive-analytical. The method of data analysis is based on library and field information (questionnaire) in the form of content analysis and statistics through the Mick Mac software system and Scenario Wizard. The results of studies and analysis of theories show that 35 indicators, directly and indirectly, affect Iran-Turkey relations from an environmental, and geopolitical perspective, which are in the form of five dimensions (water resources, soil resources, Vegetation, climate, living species). Using the Mick Mac method, 9 factors were extracted as key factors affecting Iran-Turkey relations, and in the process of analyzing research scenarios, 10100 possible situations were presented by scenario wizard software. 9 strong scenarios with 3 scenarios of favorable and very favorable situations, 3 scenarios with moderate situations and also 3 scenarios with critical situations and catastrophes according to Iran-Turkey relations from the environmental aspect are presented.

Keywords: geopolitics, relations, Iran, Turkey, environment

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Authors: Alvarez Magañini, María Victoria-Rubbi, Lautaro Nahuel

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At present, we are facing an unstable international context, conditioned by a relative decline of the US power, primarily in the economic sphere and, to a lesser extent, in the military sphere. This scenario of multipolarity creates tension and uncertainty in the peripheral countries when the issue of their foreign policy arises. This paper presents an analysis of the bilateral relations that were maintained by the Argentine Republic, a peripheral country, along with the United States and China during the period of 2005-2015 in matters of defense in order to identify the empirical consequences resulted from the Argentine actions. Based on the conceptual framework of Peripheral Realism, we analyze indicators related to the weapon trade, defense loans, joint exercises, and personnel training, among others. There will also be a comparative analysis of the conventional military forces of the two powers in question, United States and China. As a conclusion, the cost of having closer relations with China instead of the United States in the defense agenda has been clearly higher than the benefits obtained. The conclusions drawn are empirically aligned with the theoretical paradigm of peripheral realism. Although there are certain conceptual and methodological digressions, these conclusions they could be useful to update and adapt the theory to the current complex international scenario.

Keywords: China, United States, Argentine, peripheral country, peripheral realism

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Authors: Bilgehan Gültekin, Tuba Gültekin

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Peace diplomacy is the most important international tool to keep peace all over the world. The study titled “peace diplomacy for international relations” is consist of three part. In the first part, peace diplomacy is going to be introduced as a tool of peace communication and peace management. And, in this part, peace communication will be explained by international communication perspective. In the second part of the study,public relations events and communication campaigns will be developed originally for peace diplomacy. In this part, it is aimed original public communication dialogue management tools for peace diplomacy. the aim of the final part of the study, is to produce original public communication model for international relations. The model includes peace modules, peace management projects, original dialogue procedures and protocols, dialogue education, dialogue management strategies, peace actors, communication models, peace team management and public diplomacy steps. The creative part of the study aims to develop a model used for international relations for all countries. Creative Peace Diplomacy Model will be developed in the case of Turkey-Turkey-France and Turkey-Greece relations. So, communication and public relations events and campaigns are going to be developed as original for only this study.

Keywords: peace diplomacy, public communication model, dialogue management, international relations

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Authors: Djehich Mohamed Yousri

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The field of political science is one of the sciences in which there is much controversy, in terms of the multiplicity of schools, trends, and goals. This overlap and complexity in the interpretation of the political phenomenon in political science has been linked to other disciplines associated with it, and the science of international relations and the huge amount of theories that have found a wide range and a decisive position after the national tide in the history of Western political thought, especially after the Westphalia Conference 1648, and as a result was approved The new foundations of international politics, the most important of which is respect for state sovereignty. Historical events continued and coincided with scientific, intellectual, and economic developments following the emergence of the industrial revolution, followed by the technological revolutions in all their contents, which led to the rooting and establishment of a comprehensive political system that is more complex and overlapping than it was in the past during the First and Second World Wars. The international situation has become dependent on the digital revolution and its aspirations in The comprehensive transformation witnessed by international political relations after the Cold War.

Keywords: theorizing, international relations, approaches to international relations, political science, the political system

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Authors: Caroline S. Dutra, Tatiana C. Squeff

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It is well known that the history between South Korea and Japan influences their international relations; thus, also encompassing their economic relations. In this sense, it is impossible to analyze the latter without understanding the development of the former, which is known for episodes of hostility, like on Japanese colonization, but also had moments of cultural and trade interexchange. Indeed, since 1965, with the establishment of diplomatic relations between both countries, their trade relations have improved, especially after both nations have signed the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). Thereafter, with the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, another chapter of their diplomatic and economic relations have been inaugurated. Hence, bearing in mind this history between both nations, this research intends to examine their relations through the analysis of the WTO panels they have engaged in between each other, which are, in chronological order, “DS323: Japan – Import Quotas on Dried Laver and Seasoned Laver”, “DS336: Japan - Countervailing Duties on Dynamic Random Access Memories from Korea”, “DS495: Korea - Import Band, and Testing and Certification Requirements for Radionuclides”, “DS553: Korea - Sunset Review of Anti-Dumping Duties on Stainless Steel Bars” and “DS571: Korea - Measures Affecting Trade in Commercial Vessels”. The objective of this case analysis is to point out what are the areas that are more conflictual between Japan and South Korea in regard to their economic relations so that it is possible to assert on their future (economic) relations and other possible outcomes. And in order to do so, bibliographic and documental research will be made, particularly those involving the WTO and the nations under consideration. Regarding the methods used, it is important to highlight that this is applied research in the field of international economic relations and international law, which follows a hypothetic-deductive model.

Keywords: international economic relations, Japan, South Korea, World Trade Organization

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Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: wind power, uncertainty, stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Elham Delzendeh, Song Wu, Mustafa Al-Adhami, Rima Alaaeddine

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Over the last 15 years, prediction of energy consumption has become a common practice and necessity at different stages of the building’s lifecycle, particularly, at the design and post-occupancy stages for planning and maintenance purposes. This is due to the ever-growing response of governments to address sustainability and reduction of CO₂ emission in the building sector. However, there is a level of uncertainty in the estimation of energy consumption in buildings. The accuracy of energy consumption predictions is directly related to the precision of the initial inputs used in the energy assessment process. In this study, multiple cases of large non-residential buildings at design, construction, and post-occupancy stages are investigated. The energy consumption process and inputs, and the actual and predicted energy consumption of the cases are analysed. The findings of this study have pointed out and evidenced various parameters that cause uncertainty in the prediction of energy consumption in buildings such as modelling, location data, and occupant behaviour. In addition, unavailability and insufficiency of energy-consumption-related inputs at different stages of the building’s lifecycle are classified and categorized. Understanding the roots of uncertainty in building energy analysis will help energy modellers and energy simulation software developers reach more accurate energy consumption predictions in buildings.

Keywords: building lifecycle, efficiency, energy analysis, energy performance, uncertainty

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Authors: Saifurahman Fayiz

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Geo-strategically and geo-politically location of Afghanistan has endured the consideration of Indian government policy. Afghanistan has a durable and widespread economic, historical, military, and cultural relationship with India. Afghanistan has significant and durable bilateral relations with its neighbor India. India has enjoyed friendly relations with Afghanistan since 1947. After the collapse of the Taliban regime, India and Afghanistan started diplomatic relations. The relationship between the two countries was friendly and stable. The objective of this research is to study the India- Afghanistan relationship from 2001 to 2021 from different aspects. The research conducted a qualitative research method based on descriptive. The research findings propose that India should expand its soft power in Afghanistan, and India’s foreign policy in Afghanistan should be evaluated.

Keywords: relation, policy, soft power, sector

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Authors: Ouafa Sakka, Henri Barki, Louise Cote

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Uncertainty and equivocality are defined in the information processing literature as two task characteristics that require different information processing responses from managers. As uncertainty often stems from a lack of information, addressing it is thought to require the collection of additional data. On the other hand, as equivocality stems from ambiguity and a lack of understanding of the task at hand, addressing it is thought to require rich communication between those involved. Past research has provided weak to moderate empirical support to these hypotheses. The present study contributes to this literature by defining uncertainty and equivocality at the project level and investigating their moderating effects on the association between several project information processing constructs and project performance. The information processing constructs considered are the amount of information collected by the project team, and the richness and frequency of formal communications among the team members to discuss the project’s follow-up reports. Data on 93 information system development (ISD) project managers was collected in a questionnaire survey and analyzed it via the Fisher Test for correlation differences. The results indicate that the highest project performance levels were observed in projects characterized by high uncertainty and low equivocality in which project managers were provided with detailed and updated information on project costs and schedules. In addition, our findings show that information about user needs and technical aspects of the project is less useful to managing projects where uncertainty and equivocality are high. Further, while the strongest positive effect of interactive use of follow-up reports on performance occurred in projects where both uncertainty and equivocality levels were high, its weakest effect occurred when both of these were low.

Keywords: uncertainty, equivocality, information processing model, management control systems, project control, interactive use, diagnostic use, information system development

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Authors: Kyngäs Helvi, Patala-Pudas, Kaakinen Pirjo

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It has been reported that COPD -patients may experience much emotional distress, which can compromise positive health outcomes. The aim of this study was to explore disease-related uncertainty as reported by Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) patients. Uncertainty was defined as a lack of confidence; negative feelings; a sense of confidence; and awareness of the sources of uncertainty. Research design was a non-experimental cross-sectional survey. The data (n=141) was collected by validated questionnaire during COPD -patients’ visits or admissions to a tertiary hospital. The response rate was 62%. The data was analyzed by statistical methods. Around 70% of the participants were male with COPD diagnosed many years ago. Fifty-four percent were under 65 years and used an electronic respiratory aid apparatus (52%) (oxygen concentrator, ventilator or electronic inhalation device). Forty-one percent of the participants smoked. Disease-related uncertainty was widely reported. Seventy-three percent of the participants had uncertainty about their knowledge of the disease, the pulmonary medication and nutrition. One-quarter (25%) did not feel sure about managing COPD exacerbation. About forty percent (43%) reported that they did not have a written exacerbation decision aid indicating how to act in relation to COPD symptoms. Over half of the respondents were uncertain about self-management behavior related to health habits such as exercise and nutrition. Over a third of the participants (37%) felt uncertain about self-management skills related to giving up smoking. Support from the care providers was correlated significantly with the patients’ sense of confidence. COPD -patients who felt no confidence stated that they received significantly less support in care. Disease-related uncertainty should be considered more closely and broadly in the patient care context, and those strategies within patient education that enhance adherence should be strengthened and incorporated into standard practice.

Keywords: adherence, COPD, disease-management, uncertainty

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Authors: Sunday Ofum Ogon

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The 1648 Westphalia Conference in Europe ushered in the state as the only legal entity with powers to engage in interstate relations on matters that bothers on the development need of her citizens. This epochal entry of the state reshaped global relations with the curtailment of the powers of individual and groups in external relations as the state became the only entity that acted on behalf of any individual or non-state actors like NGOs residing within the parameters of such a country. Thus, the paper interrogated the extent at which the state determines her Politico-Economic relations with regards to development and growth within the state. To achieve these objectives, the paper relied on documentary evidences wherein the qualitative descriptive method was used for data collection and analysis. The paper exploited the facilities of the Rentier State theory as a guide to the study. It was revealed at the end of the study that the 21st century global economic relations is largely determine by international organizations as exemplified by the World Bank and the International Monitory Fund (IMF) where their activities in the continent has undermined state sovereignty. Hence the paper recommended amongst others that states should look inward for development strategies rather than relying on handout from supra-national organizations which has infringe on their sovereignty.

Keywords: State , Global , Rentier state, Twenty-First Century

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Authors: Achim Washington, Reece Clothier, Jose Silva

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System Safety Regulations (SSR) are a central component to the airworthiness certification of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). There is significant debate on the setting of appropriate SSR for UAS. Putting this debate aside, the challenge lies in how to apply the system safety process to UAS, which lacks the data and operational heritage of conventionally piloted aircraft. The limited knowledge and lack of operational data result in uncertainty in the system safety assessment of UAS. This uncertainty can lead to incorrect compliance findings and the potential certification and operation of UAS that do not meet minimum safety performance requirements. The existing system safety assessment and compliance processes, as used for conventional piloted aviation, do not adequately account for the uncertainty, limiting the suitability of its application to UAS. This paper discusses the challenges of undertaking system safety assessments for UAS and presents current and envisaged research towards addressing these challenges. It aims to highlight the main advantages associated with adopting a risk based framework to the System Safety Performance Requirement (SSPR) compliance process that is capable of taking the uncertainty associated with each of the outputs of the system safety assessment process into consideration. Based on this study, it is made clear that developing a framework tailored to UAS, would allow for a more rational, transparent and systematic approach to decision making. This would reduce the need for conservative assumptions and take the risk posed by each UAS into consideration while determining its state of compliance to the SSR.

Keywords: Part 1309 regulations, risk models, uncertainty, unmanned aircraft systems

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Authors: Mehdi Jalalpour, Mazdak Tootkaboni

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We present a computationally efficient method for reliability-based topology optimization under material properties uncertainty, which is assumed to be lognormally distributed and correlated within the domain. Computational efficiency is achieved through estimating the response statistics with stochastic perturbation of second order, using these statistics to fit an appropriate distribution that follows the empirical distribution of the response, and employing an efficient gradient-based optimizer. The proposed algorithm is utilized for design of new structures and the changes in the optimized topology is discussed for various levels of target reliability and correlation strength. Predictions were verified thorough comparison with results obtained using Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: material uncertainty, stochastic perturbation, structural reliability, topology optimization

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Authors: Morteza Aien, Masoud Rashidinejad, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad

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Power systems are innately uncertain systems. To face with such uncertain systems, robust uncertainty assessment tools are appealed. This paper inspects the uncertainty assessment formulation of the load flow (LF) problem considering different kinds of uncertainties, developed in its companion paper through some case studies. The proposed methodology is based on the evidence theory and joint propagation of possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainties. The load and wind power generation are considered as probabilistic uncertain variables and the electric vehicles (EVs) and gas turbine distributed generation (DG) units are considered as possibilistic uncertain variables. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the system output parameters obtained by the pure probabilistic method lies within the belief and plausibility functions obtained by the joint propagation approach. Furthermore, the imprecision in the DG parameters is explicitly reflected by the gap between the belief and plausibility functions. This gap, due to the epistemic uncertainty on the DG resources parameters grows as the penetration level increases.

Keywords: electric vehicles, joint possibilistic- probabilistic uncertainty modeling, uncertain load flow, wind turbine generator

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Authors: S. Bouhouche, R. Drai, J. Bast

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This paper is concerned with a method for uncertainty evaluation of steel sample content using X-Ray Fluorescence method. The considered method of analysis is a comparative technique based on the X-Ray Fluorescence; the calibration step assumes the adequate chemical composition of metallic analyzed sample. It is proposed in this work a new combined approach using the Kalman Filter and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for uncertainty estimation of steel content analysis. The Kalman filter algorithm is extended to the model identification of the chemical analysis process using the main factors affecting the analysis results; in this case, the estimated states are reduced to the model parameters. The MCMC is a stochastic method that computes the statistical properties of the considered states such as the probability distribution function (PDF) according to the initial state and the target distribution using Monte Carlo simulation algorithm. Conventional approach is based on the linear correlation, the uncertainty budget is established for steel Mn(wt%), Cr(wt%), Ni(wt%) and Mo(wt%) content respectively. A comparative study between the conventional procedure and the proposed method is given. This kind of approaches is applied for constructing an accurate computing procedure of uncertainty measurement.

Keywords: Kalman filter, Markov chain Monte Carlo, x-ray fluorescence calibration and testing, steel content measurement, uncertainty measurement

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Authors: Ashutosh Pujari

Abstract:

The sharing of natural resources is one of the most important aspects of relations between two neighboring countries, especially when it is a resource that has a presence in both the countries in question. River water is an important resource that is shared between India and its neighbors, namely Pakistan and Bangladesh. India shares Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers with Pakistan, while with Bangladesh, it shares Ganges and Brahmaputra. However, it is interesting to note how does India deals with her sharing of water with these two countries. Although water sharing with both the countries has been dotted by irritants over the years, relations with Bangladesh is undoubtedly better in this respect. Given the common history of the region, this paper analyses the reasons behind this difference in the relationship between India and her neighbors and its implications for the present times. Through critical analysis of literature and the official policy of all the governments involved and the narratives present, this paper tries to present understand how India’s relations with its neighbors are a function of geopolitics, culture, and perceptions on both sides.

Keywords: geopolitics, river water sharing, India-Pakistan relations, India-Bangladesh relations

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Authors: Bilgehan Gultekin, Tuba Gultekin

Abstract:

Diplomatic public relations gives an ideal concept for recognition of palestine state in all over the europe. The first step of official recognition is approval of palestine state in international political organisations such as United Nations and Nato. So, diplomatic public relations provides a recognition process in communication scale. One of the aims of the study titled “Diplomatic Public Relations Techniques for Recognition of Palestine State in Europe” is to present some communication projects on diplomatic way. The study also aims at showing communication process at diplomatic level. The most important level of such kind of diplomacy is society based diplomacy. Moreover,The study provides a wider perspective that gives some creative diplomatic communication strategies for attracting society. To persuade the public for official recognition also is key element of this process. The study also finds new communication routes including persuasion techniques for society. All creative projects are supporting parts in original persuasive process of official recognition of Palestine.

Keywords: diplomatic public relations, diplomatic communication strategies, diplomatic communication, public relations

Procedia PDF Downloads 414