Search results for: uncertain%20nonlinear%20systems

Authors: S. Dorbani, M. Badaoui, D. Benouar

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The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of the building fundamental period of reinforced concrete buildings of (6, 9, and 12-storey), with different floor plans: Symmetric, mono-symmetric, and unsymmetric. These structures are erected at different epicentral distances. Using the Boumerdes, Algeria (2003) earthquake data, we focused primarily on the establishment of the deterministic formulation linking the base shear force to two parameters: The first one is the fundamental period that represents the numerical fingerprint of the structure, and the second one is the epicentral distance used to represent the impact of the earthquake on this force. In a second step, with a view to highlight the effect of uncertainty in these parameters on the analyzed response, these parameters are modeled as random variables with a log-normal distribution. The variability of the coefficients of variation of the chosen uncertain parameters, on the statistics on the seismic base shear force, showed that the effect of uncertainty on fundamental period on this force statistics is low compared to the epicentral distance uncertainty influence.

Keywords: base shear force, fundamental period, epicentral distance, uncertainty, lognormal variables, statistics

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Authors: Maryam Sadeghi, Claude Bazin, Daniel Hodouin, Laura Perez Barnuevo

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The performance of a separation process is usually evaluated using performance indices calculated from elemental assays readily available from the chemical analysis laboratory. However, the separation process performance is essentially related to the properties of the minerals that carry the elements and not those of the elements. Since elements or metals can be carried by valuable and gangue minerals in the ore and that each mineral responds differently to a mineral processing method, the use of only elemental assays could lead to erroneous or uncertain conclusions on the process performance. This paper discusses the advantages of using performance indices calculated from minerals content, such as minerals recovery, for process performance assessments. A method is presented that uses elemental assays to estimate the minerals content of the solids in various process streams. The method combines the stoichiometric composition of the minerals and constraints of mass conservation for the minerals through the concentration process to estimate the minerals content from elemental assays. The advantage of assessing a concentration process using mineral based performance indices is illustrated for an iron ore concentration circuit.

Keywords: data reconciliation, iron ore concentration, mineral composition, process performance assessment

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Authors: Tomas Menard

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The synthesis of output-feedback control law has been investigated by many researchers since the last century. While many results exist for the case of Linear Time Invariant systems whose measurements are continuously available, nowadays, control laws are usually implemented on micro-controller, then the measurements are discrete-time by nature. This fact has to be taken into account explicitly in order to obtain a satisfactory behavior of the closed-loop system. One considers here a general class of systems corresponding to an observability normal form and which is subject to uncertainties in the dynamics and sampling of the output. Indeed, in practice, the modeling of the system is never perfect, this results in unknown uncertainties in the dynamics of the model. We propose here an output feedback algorithm which is based on a linear state feedback and a continuous-discrete time observer. The main feature of the proposed control law is that only discrete-time measurements of the output are needed. Furthermore, it is formally proven that the state of the closed loop system exponentially converges toward the origin despite the unknown uncertainties. Finally, the performances of this control scheme are illustrated with simulations.

Keywords: dynamical systems, output feedback control law, sampling, uncertain systems

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Authors: Eric Sanchis

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Although there does not exist a definitive consensus on a precise definition of a complex system, it is generally considered that a system is complex by nature. The presented work illustrates a different point of view: a system becomes complex only with regard to the question posed to it, i.e., with regard to the problem which has to be solved. A complex system is a couple (question, object). Because the number of questions posed to a given object can be potentially substantial, complexity does not present a uniform face. Two types of complex systems are clearly identified: first-order complex systems and second-order complex systems. First-order complex systems physically exist. They are well-known because they have been studied by the scientific community for a long time. In second-order complex systems, complexity results from the system composition and its articulation that are partially unknown. For some of these systems, there is no evidence of their existence. Vagueness is the keyword characterizing this kind of systems. Autonomy and free will, two mental productions of the human cognitive system, can be identified as second-order complex systems. A classification based on the properties structure makes it possible to discriminate complex properties from the others and to model this kind of second order complex systems. The final outcome is an implementable synthetic property that distinguishes the solid aspects of the actual property from those that are uncertain.

Keywords: autonomy, free will, synthetic property, vaporous complex systems

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Authors: Nadezhda Kvatashidze

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The conceptual framework of International Financial Reporting Standards determines the basic principles of accounting. The said principles have multiple applications, with professional judgments being one of those. Recognition and assessment of the information contained in financial reporting, especially so the somewhat uncertain events and transactions and/or the ones regarding which there is no standard or interpretation are based on professional judgments. Professional judgments aim at the formulation of expert assumptions regarding the specifics of the circumstances and events to be entered into the report based on the conceptual framework terms and principles. Experts have to make a choice in favor of one of the aforesaid and simulate the situations applying multi-variant accounting estimates and judgment. In making the choice, one should consider all the factors, which may help represent the information in the best way possible. Professional judgment determines the relevance and faithful representation of the presented information, which makes it more useful for the existing and potential investors. In order to assess the prospected net cash flows, the information must be predictable and reliable. The publication contains critical analysis of the aforementioned problems. The fact that the International Financial Reporting Standards are developed continuously makes the issue all the more important and that is another point discussed in the study.

Keywords: conceptual framework, faithful representation, professional judgement, relevance

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Authors: Widyani Fatwa Dewi, Subroto Athor

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In a telecommunication service provider, quantity and interval of customer demand often difficult to predict due to high dependency on customer expansion strategy and technological development. Demand arrives when a customer needs to add capacity to an existing site or build a network in a new site. Because demand is uncertain for each period, and sometimes there is a null demand for several equipments, it is categorized as intermittent. This research aims to improve demand forecast quality in Indonesia's telecommunication service providers by using Artificial Neural Network. In Artificial Neural Network, the pattern or relationship within data will be analyzed using the training process, followed by the learning process as validation stage. Historical demand data for 36 periods is used to support this research. It is found that demand forecast by using Artificial Neural Network outperforms the existing method if it is reviewed on two criteria: the forecast accuracy, using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean of the sum of the Squares of the Forecasting Error (MSE), Mean Error (ME) and service level which is shown through inventory cost. This research is expected to increase the reference for a telecommunication demand forecast, which is currently still limited.

Keywords: artificial neural network, demand forecast, forecast accuracy, intermittent, service level, telecommunication

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Authors: Ali Anwar, Hu Qinglei, Li Bo, Muhammad Taha Ali

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In this paper a generic model of perturbed nonlinear systems is considered which is affected by hard backlash nonlinearity at the input. The nonlinearity is modelled by a dynamic differential equation which presents a more precise shape as compared to the existing linear models and is compatible with nonlinear design technique such as backstepping. Moreover, a novel backstepping based nonlinear control law is designed which explicitly incorporates a continuous-time adaptive backlash inverse model. It provides a significant flexibility to control engineers, whereby they can use the estimated backlash spacing value specified on actuators such as gears etc. in the adaptive Backlash Inverse model during the control design. It ensures not only global stability but also stringent transient performance with desired precision. It is also robust to external disturbances upon which the bounds are taken as unknown and traverses the backlash spacing efficiently with underestimated information about the actual value. The continuous-time backlash inverse model is distinguished in the sense that other models are either discrete-time or involve complex computations. Furthermore, numerical simulations are presented which not only illustrate the effectiveness of proposed control law but also its comparison with PID and other backstepping controllers.

Keywords: adaptive control, hysteresis, backlash inverse, nonlinear system, robust control, backstepping

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Authors: Sajjad Farahani, Wilkistar Otieno, Xiaohang Yue

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This paper develops a model for the optimal disposition decision for product returns in a remanufacturing system with limited recoverable inventory capacity. In this model, a constant demand is satisfied by remanufacturing returned products which are up to the minimum required quality grade. The quality grade of returned products is uncertain and remanufacturing cost increases as the quality level decreases, and remanufacturer wishes to determine which returned product to accept to be remanufactured for reselling, and any unaccepted returns may be salvaged at a value that increases with their quality level. Accepted returns can be stocked for remanufacturing upon demand requests, but incur a holding cost. A Markov decision problem is formulated in order to evaluate various performance measures for this system and obtain the optimal remanufacturing policy. A detailed numerical study reveals that our approach to the disposition problem outperforms the current industrial practice ignoring quality grade of returned products. In addition, we identify conditions under which this improvement is the highest.

Keywords: green supply chain management, matrix geometric method, production recovery, reverse supply chains

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Authors: Yas Barzegar, Atrin Barzegar

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Drinking water quality assessment is a major issue today; technology and practices are continuously improving; Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods prove their efficiency in this domain. The current research seeks a hierarchical fuzzy model for predicting drinking water quality in Rome (Italy). The Mamdani fuzzy inference system (FIS) is applied with different defuzzification methods. The Proposed Model includes three fuzzy intermediate models and one fuzzy final model. Each fuzzy model consists of three input parameters and 27 fuzzy rules. The model is developed for water quality assessment with a dataset considering nine parameters (Alkalinity, Hardness, pH, Ca, Mg, Fluoride, Sulphate, Nitrates, and Iron). Fuzzy-logic-based methods have been demonstrated to be appropriate to address uncertainty and subjectivity in drinking water quality assessment; it is an effective method for managing complicated, uncertain water systems and predicting drinking water quality. The FIS method can provide an effective solution to complex systems; this method can be modified easily to improve performance.

Keywords: water quality, fuzzy logic, smart cities, water attribute, fuzzy inference system, membership function

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Authors: Sofiane Bououden, Ilyes Boulkaibet

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In this paper, a robust model predictive controller (RMPC) for uncertain nonlinear system under actuator saturation is designed to control a DC-DC buck converter in PV pumping application, where this system is subject to actuator saturation and parameter uncertainties. The considered nonlinear system contains a linear constant part perturbed by an additive state-dependent nonlinear term. Based on the saturating actuator property, an appropriate linear feedback control law is constructed and used to minimize an infinite horizon cost function within the framework of linear matrix inequalities. The proposed approach has successfully provided a solution to the optimization problem that can stabilize the nonlinear plants. Furthermore, sufficient conditions for the existence of the proposed controller guarantee the robust stability of the system in the presence of polytypic uncertainties. In addition, the simulation results have demonstrated the efficiency of the proposed control scheme.

Keywords: PV pumping system, DC-DC buck converter, robust model predictive controller, nonlinear system, actuator saturation, linear matrix inequality

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Authors: Deepshikha Shukla, C. H. Solanki, Mayank K. Desai

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Amongst all the natural hazards, earthquakes have the potential for causing the greatest damages. Since the earthquake forces are random in nature and unpredictable, the quantification of the hazards becomes important in order to assess the hazards. The time and place of a future earthquake are both uncertain. Since earthquakes can neither be prevented nor be predicted, engineers have to design and construct in such a way, that the damage to life and property are minimized. Seismic hazard analysis plays an important role in earthquake design structures by providing a rational value of input parameter. In this paper, both mathematical, as well as computational methods adopted by researchers globally in the past five years, will be discussed. Some mathematical approaches involving the concepts of Poisson’s ratio, Convex Set Theory, Empirical Green’s Function, Bayesian probability estimation applied for seismic hazard and FOSM (first-order second-moment) algorithm methods will be discussed. Computational approaches and numerical model SSIFiBo developed in MATLAB to study dynamic soil-structure interaction problem is discussed in this paper. The GIS-based tool will also be discussed which is predominantly used in the assessment of seismic hazards.

Keywords: computational methods, MATLAB, seismic hazard, seismic measurements

Procedia PDF Downloads 307

Authors: Abdulaziz Afandi

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Minimizing the inventory cost, optimizing the inventory quantities, and increasing system operational availability are the main motivations to enhance forecasting demand of spare parts in a major power utility company in Medina. This paper reports in an effort made to optimize the orders quantities of spare parts by improving the method of forecasting the demand. The study focuses on equipment that has frequent spare parts purchase orders with uncertain demand. The pattern of the demand considers a lumpy pattern which makes conventional forecasting methods less effective. A comparison was made by benchmarking various methods of forecasting based on experts’ criteria to select the most suitable method for the case study. Three actual data sets were used to make the forecast in this case study. Two neural networks (NN) approaches were utilized and compared, namely long short-term memory (LSTM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). The results as expected, showed that the NN models gave better results than traditional forecasting method (judgmental method). In addition, the LSTM model had a higher predictive accuracy than the MLP model.

Keywords: neural network, LSTM, MLP, forecasting demand, inventory management

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Authors: Ridoy Das, Myriam Neaimeh, Yue Wang, Ghanim Putrus

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Electric vehicles are a popular transportation medium renowned for potential environmental benefits. However, large and uncontrolled charging volumes can impact distribution networks negatively. Smart charging is widely recognized as an efficient solution to achieve both improved renewable energy integration and grid relief. Nevertheless, different decision-makers may pursue diverse and conflicting objectives. In this context, this paper proposes a multi-objective optimization framework to control electric vehicle charging to achieve both energy cost reduction and peak shaving. A weighted-sum method is developed due to its intuitiveness and efficiency. Monte Carlo simulations are implemented to investigate the impact of uncertain electric vehicle driving patterns and provide decision-makers with a robust outcome in terms of prospective cost and network loading. The results demonstrate that there is a conflict between energy cost efficiency and peak shaving, with the decision-makers needing to make a collaborative decision.

Keywords: electric vehicles, multi-objective optimization, uncertainty, mixed integer linear programming

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Authors: H. Parameshwar Naik, Shripad Kulkarni

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Powdery mildew is a serious disease among the fungal in high humid areas with varied temperature conditions. In recent days disease becomes very severe due to uncertain weather conditions and unique character of the disease is, it produces white mycelia growth on upper and lower leaf surfaces and in severe conditions it leads to defoliation. Results of the experiment revealed that sowing of crop in the I fortnight (FN) of July recorded the minimum mean disease severity (7.96 %) followed by crop sown in II FN of July (13.19 %) as against the crop sown in II FN of August (41.44 %) and I FN of September (33.78 %) and the I fortnight of October (33.77 %). In the first date of sowing infection started at 45 DAS and progressed till 73 DAS and it was up to 14.66 Percent and in second date of sowing disease progressed up to 22.66 percent and in the third date of sowing, it was up to 59.35 percent. Afterward, the disease started earlier and progressed up to 66.15 percent and in sixth and seventh date of sowing disease progressed up to 43.15 percent and 59.85 percent respectively. Disease progress is very fast after 45 days after sowing and highest disease incidence was noticed at 73 DAS irrespective of dates of sowing. From the results of the present study, it is very clear that disease development will be very high if crop sown in between 1st fortnight of August and the 1st fortnight of September.

Keywords: cucumber, India, Karnataka, powdery mildew

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Authors: M. Khairudin

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This paper investigates the system identification and design quantitative feedback theory (QFT) for the robust control of a lathe spindle. The dynamic of the lathe spindle is uncertain and time variation due to the deepness variation on cutting process. System identification was used to obtain the dynamics model of the lathe spindle. In this work, real time system identification is used to construct a linear model of the system from the nonlinear system. These linear models and its uncertainty bound can then be used for controller synthesis. The real time nonlinear system identification process to obtain a set of linear models of the lathe spindle that represents the operating ranges of the dynamic system. With a selected input signal, the data of output and response is acquired and nonlinear system identification is performed using Matlab to obtain a linear model of the system. Practical design steps are presented in which the QFT-based conditions are formulated to obtain a compensator and pre-filter to control the lathe spindle. The performances of the proposed controller are evaluated in terms of velocity responses of the the lathe machine spindle in corporating deepness on cutting process.

Keywords: lathe spindle, QFT, robust control, system identification

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Authors: C. Morris, W. Ashall, K. Telling, L. Kadiwal, J. Kirby, S. Mwale

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This paper addresses experiences of liminality in the early career phase of academia. Liminality is understood as a process moving from one state (in this case of being non-academic) to another (of being academic), caught between or moving in and out these modes of being. Drawing on life-history methods, a group of academics jointly reflected on experiences of the early career. Primarily focused on the theme of imposter syndrome at this career stage, the authors identified feelings of non-belonging and lack of fit with the academy, tracing the biographical, political, and affective dimensions of such responses. Uncertainty around status within seemingly impermeable hierarchies and barriers to progression in combination with our intersectional positionings shaped by sexism, racism, ableism, and classism, led to experiences of liminality, having not yet fully achieved the desired and potentially illusionary status of established academic. Findings are contextualised within the authors’ contrasting disciplinary, departmental, and institutional settings against a backdrop of neoliberalised academia. The paper thereby contributes nuanced understandings of early-career academic identities at a time when this career stage is ever more ill-defined, extended, precarious and uncertain, exposing ongoing impacts of inequities in the contemporary academic milieu.

Keywords: early career, identities, intersectionality, liminality

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Authors: Ailing Yang, Penghan Song, Aihua Cai

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The nonlinear maneuvering target tracking problem is mainly a state estimation problem when the target motion model is uncertain. Traditional solutions include Kalman filtering based on Bayesian filtering framework and extended Kalman filtering. However, these methods need prior knowledge such as kinematics model and state system distribution, and their performance is poor in state estimation of nonprior complex dynamic systems. Therefore, in view of the problems existing in traditional algorithms, a convolution LSTM target state estimation (SAConvLSTM-SE) algorithm based on Self-Attention memory (SAM) is proposed to learn the historical motion state of the target and the error distribution information measured at the current time. The measured track point data of airborne radar are processed into data sets. After supervised training, the data-driven deep neural network based on SAConvLSTM can directly obtain the target state at the next moment. Through experiments on two different maneuvering targets, we find that the network has stronger robustness and better tracking accuracy than the existing tracking methods.

Keywords: maneuvering target, state estimation, Kalman filter, LSTM, self-attention

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Authors: Fan Ye

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Adverse weather conditions, particularly those with low visibility, are critical to the driving tasks. However, the direct relationship between visibility distances and traffic flow/roadway safety is uncertain due to the limitation of visibility data availability. The recent growth of deployment of Road Weather Information Systems (RWIS) makes segment-specific visibility information available which can be integrated with other Intelligent Transportation System, such as automated warning system and variable speed limit, to improve mobility and safety. Before applying the RWIS visibility measurements in traffic study and operations, it is critical to validate the data. Therefore, an attempt was made in the paper to examine the validity and viability of RWIS visibility data by comparing visibility measurements among RWIS, airport weather stations, and weather information recorded by police in crash reports, based on Ohio data. The results indicated that RWIS visibility measurements were significantly different from airport visibility data in Ohio, but no conclusion regarding the reliability of RWIS visibility could be drawn in the consideration of no verified ground truth in the comparisons. It was suggested that more objective methods are needed to validate the RWIS visibility measurements, such as continuous in-field measurements associated with various weather events using calibrated visibility sensors.

Keywords: RWIS, visibility distance, low visibility, adverse weather

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Authors: Phani Kiran, Prabodha Manas Yarlagadda

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This paper attempts to treat Shakespeare’s tragic hero, Hamlet as an existential hero who faces many dilemmas in the process of taking revenge for his father’s murder. Hamlet can be considered as a predecessor of existentialism, and Shakespeare, as a pioneer, focused on some serious existential issues in the play much before they were fully developed in 20th century. Hamlet's internal struggles reflect existential themes such as alienation, despair, and the quest for authenticity. Hamlet’s famous soliloquy, "To be, or not to be," is a quintessential expression of existential ponderings, contemplating the choice between life and death and the uncertainty of what lies beyond. Hamlet grapples with existential questions like the purpose and meaninglessness of life, the nature of morality, the inevitability of death, and the existence of an afterlife. He doubts the authenticity of appearance and the reliability of his own perceptions, highlighting the inherent ambiguity and uncertainty of existence. Overall, "Hamlet" aligns with existential philosophy by exploring the complexities of human existence, the search for meaning, and the individual's struggle to find their place in an inherently uncertain and perplexing world. The character of Hamlet and the play's exploration of existential themes continue to resonate with audiences and provoke contemplation on the nature of life and the human experience.

Keywords: to be or not to be, death, dilemmas, illusion and reality

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Authors: Rihab Hamdi, Amel Hadri Hamida, Ouafae Bennis, Fatima Babaa, Sakina Zerouali

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This paper features a sliding mode controller (SMC) for closed-loop voltage control of DC-DC three-cells buck converter connected in parallel, operating in continuous conduction mode (CCM), based on pulse-width modulation (PWM). To maintain the switching frequency, the approach is to incorporate a pulse-width modulation that utilizes an equivalent control, inferred by applying the SM control method, to produce a control sign to be contrasted and the fixed-frequency within the modulator. Detailed stability and transient performance analysis have been conducted using Lyapunov stability criteria to restrict the switching frequency variation facing wide variations in output load, input changes, and set-point changes. The results obtained confirm the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme in achieving an enhanced output transient performance while faithfully realizing its control objective in the event of abrupt and uncertain parameter variations. Simulations studies in MATLAB/Simulink environment are performed to confirm the idea.

Keywords: DC-DC converter, pulse width modulation, power electronics, sliding mode control

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Authors: Homa Ghave, Parmis Shahmaleki

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This paper presents a new multi-criteria stochastic mathematical model for a single machine scheduling with outsourcing allowed. There are multiple jobs processing in batch. For each batch, all of job or a quantity of it can be outsourced. The jobs have stochastic processing time and lead time and deterministic due dates arrive randomly. Because of the stochastic inherent of processing time and lead time, we use the chance constrained programming for modeling the problem. First, the problem is formulated in form of stochastic programming and then prepared in a form of deterministic mixed integer linear programming. The objectives are considered in the model to minimize the maximum tardiness and outsourcing cost simultaneously. Several procedures have been developed to deal with the multi-criteria problem. In this paper, we utilize the concept of satisfaction functions to increases the manager’s preference. The proposed approach is tested on instances where the random variables are normally distributed.

Keywords: single machine scheduling, multi-criteria mathematical model, outsourcing strategy, uncertain lead times and processing times, chance constrained programming, satisfaction function

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Authors: Abeer Amayri, Akif A. Bulgak

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Due to today’s globalization as well as outsourcing practices of the companies, the Supply Chain (SC) performances have become more dependent on the efficient movement of material among places that are geographically dispersed, where there is more chance for disruptions. One such disruption is the quality and delivery uncertainties of outsourcing. These uncertainties could lead the products to be unsafe and, as is the case in a number of recent examples, companies may have to end up in recalling their products. As a result of these problems, there is a need to develop a methodology for selecting suppliers globally in view of risks associated with low quality and late delivery. Accordingly, we developed a two-stage stochastic model that captures the risks associated with uncertainty in quality and delivery as well as a solution procedure for the model. The stochastic model developed simultaneously optimizes supplier selection and purchase quantities under price discounts over a time horizon. In particular, our target is the study of global organizations with multiple sites and multiple overseas suppliers, where the pricing is offered in suppliers’ local currencies. Our proposed methodology is applied to a case study for a US automotive company having two assembly plants and four potential global suppliers to illustrate how the proposed model works in practice.

Keywords: global supply chains, quality, stochastic programming, supplier selection

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Authors: Salinee Thumronglaohapun

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The proper number and appropriate locations of service centers can save cost, raise revenue and gain more satisfaction from customers. Establishing service centers is high-cost and difficult to relocate. In long-term planning periods, several factors may affect the service. One of the most critical factors is uncertain demand of customers. The opened service centers need to be capable of serving customers and making a profit although the demand in each period is changed. In this work, the capacitated location-allocation problem with stochastic demand is considered. A mathematical model is formulated to determine suitable locations of service centers and their allocation to maximize total profit for multiple planning periods. Two heuristic methods, a local search and genetic algorithm, are used to solve this problem. For the local search, five different chances to choose each type of moves are applied. For the genetic algorithm, three different replacement strategies are considered. The results of applying each method to solve numerical examples are compared. Both methods reach to the same best found solution in most examples but the genetic algorithm provides better solutions in some cases.

Keywords: location-allocation problem, stochastic demand, local search, genetic algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Amir Andria Gad Shehata

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Minimizing the inventory cost, optimizing the inventory quantities, and increasing system operational availability are the main motivations to enhance forecasting demand of spare parts in a major power utility company in Medina. This paper reports in an effort made to optimize the orders quantities of spare parts by improving the method of forecasting the demand. The study focuses on equipment that has frequent spare parts purchase orders with uncertain demand. The pattern of the demand considers a lumpy pattern which makes conventional forecasting methods less effective. A comparison was made by benchmarking various methods of forecasting based on experts’ criteria to select the most suitable method for the case study. Three actual data sets were used to make the forecast in this case study. Two neural networks (NN) approaches were utilized and compared, namely long short-term memory (LSTM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). The results as expected, showed that the NN models gave better results than traditional forecasting method (judgmental method). In addition, the LSTM model had a higher predictive accuracy than the MLP model.

Keywords: spare part, spare part inventory, inventory model, optimization, maintenanceneural network, LSTM, MLP, forecasting demand, inventory management

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Authors: Garba Iliyasu, Lamaran Dattijo

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Introduction: Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a disease of humans and other primates caused by Ebola viruses. The most widespread epidemic of EVD in history occurred recently in several West African countries. The burden and outcome of EVD in pregnant women remains uncertain. There are very few studies to date reporting on maternal and fetal outcomes among pregnant women with EVD, hence the justification for this comprehensive review of these published studies. Methods: Published studies in English that reported on maternal and or fetal outcome among pregnant women with EVD up to May 2016 were searched in electronic databases (Google Scholar, Medline, Embase, PubMed, AJOL, and Scopus). Studies that did not satisfy the inclusion criteria were excluded. We extracted the following variables from each study: geographical location, year of the study, settings of the study, participants, maternal and fetal outcome.Result: There were 12 studies that reported on 108 pregnant women and 110 fetal outcomes. Six of the studies were case reports, 3 retrospective studies, 2 cross-sectional studies and 1 was a technical report. There were 91(84.3%) deaths out of the 108 pregnant women, while only 1(0.9%) fetal survival was reported out of 110. Survival rate among the 15 patients that had spontaneous abortion/stillbirth or induced delivery was 100%. Conclusion: There was a poor maternal and fetal outcome among pregnant women with EVD, and fetal evacuation significantly improves maternal survival.

Keywords: Africa, ebola, maternofetal, outcome

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Authors: Pelin Sonmez

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Health services provided to refugees and asylum seekers are very important and of priority due to their physical damages during the war and conflict situation, possible diseases in migration journey and negative psychological mood. However, there are very poor international standards in regards to providing health services to these people, which in return cause each country to differ their regulations. United Nations Sustainable Development Goals that are in effect as of 2016 assure that attention should be provided to non-citizen vulnerable groups in terms of health policies and they should be included in the global development, thereby aims to decrease the problems arising from providing health services to refugees. Though, we should not forget that these are the recent and yet uncertain attempts, mostly, as a result of Syrian War's forced migration wave. As an attempt to reveal different attitudes of international actors, this study compares/analyzes health services provided to refugees and asylum seekers on the basis of Turkey-EU policy implementations. While doing so, two research data will be focused upon. In this globe, results of the focus group interviews and a field study in a specific work (from its health related section) which was done in 2017 to 5000 Syrian women living in Turkey and presented to Republic of Turkey Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency will be utilized.

Keywords: European Union, health policies, refugee, Syrian women, Turkey

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Authors: Polycarpe Feussi

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Globalization, technological and customer increasing changes, amongst other drivers, result in higher levels of uncertainty and unpredictability for organizations. In order for organizations to cope with the uncertain and fast-changing economic and business environment, these organizations need to innovate in order to achieve flexibility. In simple terms, the organizations must develop strategies leading to the ability of these organizations to provide horizontal information connections across the supply chain to create and deliver products that meet customer needs by synchronization of customer demands with product creation. The generated information will create efficiency and effectiveness throughout the whole supply chain regarding production, storage, and distribution, as well as eliminating redundant activities and reduction in response time. In an integrated supply chain, spanning activities include coordination with distributors and suppliers. This paper explains how through postponement strategies, flexibility can be achieved in an organization. In order to achieve the above, a thorough literature review was conducted via the search of online websites that contains material from scientific journal data-bases, articles, and textbooks on the subject of postponement and flexibility. The findings of the research are found in the last part of the paper. The first part introduces the concept of postponement and its importance in supply chain management. The second part of the paper provides the methodology used in the process of writing the paper.

Keywords: postponement strategies, supply chain management, flexibility, logistics

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Authors: Marwan Keshlaf, Hassan Fellah

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This study was designed to test whether hive bottom boards modified with polyvinyl chloride pipe or screen-mesh reduces number of Varroa mites in naturally infested honeybee colonies comparing to chemical control. Fifty six colonies distributed equally between two location each received one of four experimental treatment 1) conventional solid board “control”, 2) Apistan in conventional solid board, 3) Mesh bottom board and 4) tube bottom board. Varroa infestation level on both adult bees and on capped brood was estimated. Stored pollen, capped brood area and honey production were also measured. Results of varroa infestation were inconsistent between apiaries. In apiary 1, colonies with Apistan had fewer Varroa destructor than other treatments, but this benefit was not apparent in Apiary 2. There were no effects of modified bottom boards on bee flight activity, brood production, honey yield and stored pollen. We conclude that the efficacy of modified bottom boards in reducing varroa mites population in bee colonies remains uncertain due to observed differences of hygienic behavior.

Keywords: Apis mellifera, modified bottom boards, Varroa destructor, Honeybee colonies

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Authors: Muhammad Jawad Hashmi

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The idea of nuclear terrorism is as old as nuclear weapons but the global concerns of likelihood of nuclear terrorism are uncertain. Post 9/11 trends manifest that terrorists are believers of massive causalities. Innovation in terrorist’s tactics, sophisticated weaponry, vulnerability, theft and smuggling of nuclear/radiological material, connections between terrorists, black market and rough regimes are signaling seriousness of upcoming challenges as well as global trends of “terror-transnationalism.” Furthermore, the International-Atomic-Energy-Agency’s database recorded 2734 incidents regarding misuse, unauthorized possession, trafficking of nuclear material etc. Since, this data also includes incidents from south Asia, so, there is every possibility to claim that such illicit activities may increase in future, mainly due to expansion of nuclear industry in South Asia. Moreover, due to such mishaps the region is vulnerable to threats of nuclear terrorism. This is also a reason that the region is in limelight along with issues such as rapidly growing nuclear arsenals, nuclear safety and security, terrorism and political instability. With this backdrop, this study is aimed to investigate the prevailing threats and challenges in South Asia vis a vis nuclear safety and security. A comparative analysis of the overall capabilities would be done to identify the areas of cooperation to eliminate the probability of nuclear/radiological terrorism in the region.

Keywords: nuclear terrorism, safety, security, South Asia, india, Pakistan

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Authors: M. Karaman, H. Catalkaya

Abstract:

Due to the complex nature of cyber attacks and their effects ranging from personal to governmental level, it becomes one of the priority tasks for operation planners to take into account the risks, influences and effects of cyber attacks. However it can also be embedded or integrated technically with electronic warfare planning, cyber operation planning is needed to have a sole and broadened perspective. This perspective embodies itself firstly in operational design and then military decision making process. In order to find out the ill-structured problems, understand or visualize the operational environment and frame the problem, operational design can help support cyber operation planners and commanders. After having a broadened and conceptual startup with cyber operational design, military decision making process will follow the principles of design into more concrete elements like reaching results after risk management and center of gravity analysis of our and the enemy. In this paper we tried to emphasize the importance of cyber operational design, cyber operation planning and its integration to military decision making problem. In this foggy, uncertain and unaccountable cyber security environment, it is inevitable to stay away from cyber attacks. Therefore, a cyber operational design should be formed with line of operations, decisive points and end states in cyber then a tactical military decision making process should be followed with cyber security focus in order to support the whole operation.

Keywords: cyber operational design, military decision making process (MDMP), operation planning, end state

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