Search results for: transitional probabilities

Authors: Asharaf Abdul Salam

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Arabian Gulf countries have norms and rules different from others: having an exodus of male immigrant labor contract holders of age 20-60 years as a floating population. Such a demographic scenario camouflages population ageing. However, it is observed on examining vigilantly, not only in the native population but also in the general population. This research on population ageing in the Arabian Gulf examines ageing scenario and concerns through analyses of international databases (US Census Bureau and United Nations) and national level databases (Censuses and Surveys) apart from a review of published research. Transitions in demography and epidemiology lead to gains in life expectancy and thereby reductions in fertility, leading to ageing of the population in the region. Even after bringing adult immigrants, indices and age pyramids show an increasing ageing trend in the total population, demonstrating an ageing workforce. Besides, the exclusive native population analysis reveals a trend of expansive pyramids (pre-transitional stage) turning to constrictive (transition stage) and cylindrical (post-transition stage) shapes. Age-based indices such as the index of ageing, age dependency ratio, and median age confirm this trend. While the feminine nature of ageing is vivid, gains in life expectancy and causes of death in old age, indicating co-morbidity compression, are concerns to ageing. Preparations are in demand to cope with ageing from different dimensions, as explained in the United Nations Plans of Action. A strategy of strengthening informal care with supportive semi-formal and supplementary formal care networks would alleviate this crisis associated with population ageing.

Keywords: total versus native population, indices of ageing, age pyramids, feminine nature, comorbidity compression, strategic interventions

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Authors: Safa Abdussalam

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Adolescence is a period of storm and stress. It is a transitional period. Adolescents undergo a lot of changes physically, emotionally and mentally during adolescence. Physical changes include puberty, sexual maturation, changes in height, weight, hormonal changes, changes in body image, changes in brain and in sexuality. Changes also occur in their cognition. According to Piaget’s theory, adolescent enter formal operational stage and engage in hypothetical-deductive reasoning. Main characteristic of adolescent cognition is adolescent egocentrism: imaginary audience and personal fable. One of the most common struggle majority of adolescents face is the conflict between parent and adolescent. They often complain that parents do not understand them/their situation. Common topics of conflict include identity crisis, issues with personal freedom and issues over personal preferences. Conflict resolution refers to solving conflicts in a healthy way. There is a lack of resources in dealing with such conflicts creatively. To deal with parent-adolescent conflict, a conflict resolution board game is designed. The board game consists of tokens, dice, 10 conflict situation cards and two conflict resolution sheets. Purpose of using a board game is to help adolescents understand the conflict situations and resolutions in a fun, creative and interactive way. It can be used for self-help or even therapists can use it in their clinical practice. The study aims to assess the effectiveness of the board game in dealing with the conflict. Experimental design will be used. Samples include 15 adolescents belonging to age group 10-19. Samples will be divided into two groups: Experimental group and control group. A pre-test and post-test will be conducted. The board game will be demonstrated to the experimental group. Results will be obtained after statistical analysis. Board games are a great way to be used with children and adolescents.

Keywords: adolescent, adolescence, parent-child conflict, conflict resolution

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Authors: Rafla Attia, Claudio Zucca, Bao Quang Le, Sana Dridi, Thouraya Sahli, Taoufik Hermassi

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In Tunisia, landscape change and land degradation are critical issues for landscape conservation, management, and planning. Landscapes are undergoing crucial environmental problems made evident by soil degradation and desertification. Human improper uses of land resources (e.g., unsuitable land uses, unsustainable crop intensification, and poor rangeland management) and climate change are the main factors leading to the landscape transformation and desertification affecting high proportions of the Tunisian lands. Land use planning (LUP) to achieve Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) must be supported by methodologies and technologies that help identify best solutions and practices and design context-specific sustainable land management (SLM) strategies. Such strategies must include restoration or rehabilitation efforts in areas with high land degradation, as well as prevention of degradation that could be caused by improper land use (LU) and land management (LM). The geoinformatics Land Use Planning for LDN (LUP4LDN) tool has been designed for this purpose. Its aim is to support national and sub-national planners in i) mapping geographic patterns of current land degradation; ii) anticipating further future land degradation expected in areas that are unsustainably managed; and iii) providing an interactive procedure for developing participatory LU-LM transitional scenarios over selected regions of interest and timeframes, visualizing the related expected levels of impacts on ecosystem services via maps and graphs. The tool has been co-developed and piloted with national stakeholders in Tunisia. The piloting implementation assessed how the LUP4LDN tool fits with existing LUP processes and the benefits achieved by using the tool to support land use planning for LDN.

Keywords: land use system, land cover, sustainable land management, land use planning for land degradation neutrality

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Authors: Chin-Chih Chang

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Many manufacturing systems suffer failures due to complex degradation processes and various environment conditions such as random shocks. Consider an operating system is subject to random shocks and works at random times for successive jobs. When successive jobs often result in production losses and performance deterioration, it would be better to do maintenance or replacement at a planned time. A preventive replacement (PR) policy is presented to replace the system before a failure occurs at a continuous time T. In such a policy, the failure characteristics of the system are designed as follows. Each job would cause a random amount of additive damage to the system, and the system fails when the cumulative damage has exceeded a failure threshold. Suppose that the deteriorating system suffers one of the two types of shocks with age-dependent probabilities: type-I (minor) shock is rectified by a minimal repair, or type-II (catastrophic) shock causes the system to fail. A corrective replacement (CR) is performed immediately when the system fails. In summary, a generalized maintenance model to scheduling replacement plan for an operating system is presented below. PR is carried out at time T, whereas CR is carried out when any type-II shock occurs and the total damage exceeded a failure level. The main objective is to determine the optimal continuous schedule time of preventive replacement through minimizing the mean cost rate function. The existence and uniqueness of optimal replacement policy are derived analytically. It can be seen that the present model is a generalization of the previous models, and the policy with preventive replacement outperforms the one without preventive replacement.

Keywords: preventive replacement, working time, cumulative damage model, minimal repair, imperfect maintenance, optimization

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Authors: Sudhir K. Gupta

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Introduction: When a forensic doctor determines that a suspicious death is a suicide, homicide, or accident, the decision virtually becomes incontestable by the investigating police officer, and it becomes an issue whether the medical opinion was created with necessary checks and balances on the other probabilities of the case. It is suggested that the opinion of Forensic Medical experts is conventional, mutable, and shifting from one expert to another. The determination of suicide, accident, or homicide is mandatorily required, which is the Gold Standard for conducting death investigations. Forensic investigations serve many audiences, but the court is by far the most critical. The likely questions on direct and cross-examination determine how forensic doctors gather and handle evidence and what conclusions they reach. Methodology: The author interacted with the investigative authority, and a crime scene visit was also done along with the perusal of the Postmortem report, subsequent opinion, and crime scene photographs and statements of the witness and accused. Further analysis of all relevant scientific documents and opinions of other forensic doctors, forensic scientists, and ballistic experts involved in these cases was done to arrive at an opinion with scientific justification. Findings: The opinions arrived at by the author and how they helped the judiciary in delivering justice in these cases have been discussed in this article. This can help the readers to understand the process involved in formulating a credible forensic medical expert opinion for investigators and the judiciary. Conclusion: A criminal case might be won or lost over doubt cast on the chain of custody. Medically trained forensic doctors, therefore, learn to practice their profession in legally appropriate ways, and opinions must be based on medical justifications with credible references.

Keywords: forensic doctor, professional credibility, investigation, expert opinion

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Authors: S. M. Ismail, H-H Yen, C. M. Murray, H. M. S. Davies

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A recent study reported a 33% incidence of complete sacrocaudal fusion in greyhounds compared to a 3% incidence in other dogs. In the dog, the median sacral crest is formed by the fusion of sacral spinous processes. Separation of the 1st spinous process from the median crest of the sacrum in the dog has been reported as a diagnostic tool of type one lumbosacral transitional vertebra (LTV). LTV is a congenital spinal anomaly, which includes either sacralization of the caudal lumbar part or lumbarization of the most cranial sacral segment of the spine. In this study, the absence or reduction of fusion (presence of separation) between the 1st and 2ndspinous processes of the median sacral crest has been identified in association with sacrocaudal fusion in the greyhound, without any feature of LTV. In order to provide quantitative data on the absence or reduction of fusion in the median sacral crest between the 1st and 2nd sacral spinous processes, in association with sacrocaudal fusion. 204 dog sacrums free of any pathological changes (192 greyhound, 9 beagles and 3 labradors) were grouped based on the occurrence and types of fusion and the presence, absence, or reduction in the median sacral crest between the 1st and 2nd sacral spinous processes., Sacrums were described and classified as follows: F: Complete fusion (crest is present), N: Absence (fusion is absent), and R: Short crest (fusion reduced but not absent (reduction). The incidence of sacrocaudal fusion in the 204 sacrums: 57% of the sacrums were standard (3 vertebrae) and 43% were fused (4 vertebrae). Type of sacrum had a significant (p < .05) association with the absence and reduction of fusion between the 1st and 2nd sacral spinous processes of the median sacral crest. In the 108 greyhounds with standard sacrums (3 vertebrae) the percentages of F, N and R were 45% 23% and 23% respectively, while in the 84 fused (4 vertebrae) sacrums, the percentages of F, N and R were 3%, 87% and 10% respectively and these percentages were significantly different between standard (3 vertebrae) and fused (4 vertebrae) sacrums (p < .05). This indicates that absence of spinous process fusion in the median sacral crest was found in a large percentage of the greyhounds in this study and was found to be particularly prevalent in those with sacrocaudal fusion – therefore in this breed, at least, absence of sacral spinous process fusion may be unlikely to be associated with LTV.

Keywords: greyhound, median sacral crest, sacrocaudal fusion, sacral spinous process

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Authors: Walid Chakroun, Sorour Alotaibi, Nesreen Ghaddar, Kamel Ghali

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This study aims at determining the extent to which occupant control of microenvironment influences, improves thermal sensation and comfort, and saves energy in spaces equipped with ceiling personalized ventilation (CPV) system assisted by chair fans (CF) and desk fans (DF) in 2 experiments in a climatic chamber equipped with two-station CPV systems, one that allows control of fan flow rate and the other is set to the fan speed of the selected participant in control. Each experiment included two participants each entering the cooled space from transitional environment at a conventional mixed ventilation (MV) at 24 °C. For CPV diffuser, fresh air was delivered at a rate of 20 Cubic feet per minute (CFM) and a temperature of 16 °C while the recirculated air was delivered at the same temperature but at a flow rate 150 CFM. The macroclimate air of the space was at 26 °C. The full speed flow rates for both the CFs and DFs were at 5 CFM and 20 CFM, respectively. Occupant 1 was allowed to operate the CFs or the DFs at (1/3 of the full speed, 2/3 of the full speed, and the full speed) while occupant 2 had no control on the fan speed and their fan speed was selected by occupant 1. Furthermore, a parametric study was conducted to study the effect of increasing the fresh air flow rate on the occupants’ thermal comfort and whole body sensations. The results showed that most occupants in the CPV+CFs, who did not control the CF flow rate, felt comfortable 6 minutes. The participants, who controlled the CF speeds, felt comfortable in around 24 minutes because they were preoccupied with the CFs. For the DF speed control experiments, most participants who did not control the DFs felt comfortable within the first 8 minutes. Similarly to the CPV+CFs, the participants who controlled the DF flow rates felt comfortable at around 26 minutes. When the CPV system was either supported by CFs or DFs, 93% of participants in both cases reached thermal comfort. Participants in the parametric study felt more comfortable when the fresh air flow rate was low, and felt cold when as the flow rate increased.

Keywords: PMV, thermal comfort, thermal environment, thermal sensation

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Authors: Lavanya Annadi, Fahimeh Jafari

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Transportation brings immense benefits to society, but it also has its costs. Costs include such as the cost of infrastructure, personnel and equipment, but also the loss of life and property in traffic accidents on the road, delays in travel due to traffic congestion and various indirect costs in terms of air transport. More research has been done to identify the various factors that affect road accidents, such as road infrastructure, traffic, sociodemographic characteristics, land use, and the environment. The aim of this research is to predict the probabilistic crash prediction of vehicles using machine learning due to natural and structural reasons by excluding spontaneous reasons like overspeeding etc., in the United States. These factors range from weather factors, like weather conditions, precipitation, visibility, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, pressure, and humidity to human made structures like road structure factors like bump, roundabout, no exit, turning loop, give away, etc. Probabilities are dissected into ten different classes. All the predictions are based on multiclass classification techniques, which are supervised learning. This study considers all crashes that happened in all states collected by the US government. To calculate the probability, multinomial expected value was used and assigned a classification label as the crash probability. We applied three different classification models, including multiclass Logistic Regression, Random Forest and XGBoost. The numerical results show that XGBoost achieved a 75.2% accuracy rate which indicates the part that is being played by natural and structural reasons for the crash. The paper has provided in-deep insights through exploratory data analysis.

Keywords: road safety, crash prediction, exploratory analysis, machine learning

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Authors: Joanna Maj

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Body machine interfaces (BMIs) afford users a non-invasive way coordinate movement. Vibrotactile stimulation has been incorporated into BMIs to allow feedback in real-time and guide movement control to benefit patients with cognitive deficits, such as stroke survivors. To advance research in this area, we examined vibrational discrimination thresholds at four body locations to determine suitable application sites for future multi-channel BMIs using vibration cues to guide movement planning and control. Twelve healthy adults had a pair of small vibrators (tactors) affixed to the skin at each location: forearm, shoulders, torso, and knee. A "standard" stimulus (186 Hz; 750 ms) and "probe" stimuli (11 levels ranging from 100 Hz to 235 Hz; 750 ms) were delivered. Probe and test stimulus pairs could occur sequentially or simultaneously (timing). Participants verbally indicated which stimulus felt more intense. Stimulus order was counterbalanced across tactors and body locations. Probabilities that probe stimuli felt more intense than the standard stimulus were computed and fit with a cumulative Gaussian function; the discrimination threshold was defined as one standard deviation of the underlying distribution. Threshold magnitudes depended on stimulus timing and location. Discrimination thresholds were better for stimuli applied sequentially vs. simultaneously at the torso as well as the knee. Thresholds were small (better) and relatively insensitive to timing differences for vibrations applied at the shoulder. BMI applications requiring multiple channels of simultaneous vibrotactile stimulation should therefore consider the shoulder as a deployment site for a vibrotactile BMI interface.

Keywords: electromyography, electromyogram, neuromuscular disorders, biomedical instrumentation, controls engineering

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Authors: O. V. Vyazovska

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Behavioral efficiency is one of the main principles to be successful in nature. Accuracy of visual discrimination is determined by the attention, learning experience, and memory. In the experimental condition, pigeons’ responses to visual stimuli presented on the screen of the monitor are behaviorally manifested by pecking or not pecking the stimulus, by the number of pecking, reaction time, etc. The higher the probability of rewarding is, the more likely pigeons will respond to the stimulus. We trained 8 pigeons (Columba livia) on a stagewise go/no-go visual discrimination task.16 visual stimuli were created from all possible combinations of four binary dimensions: brightness (dark/bright), size (large/small), line orientation (vertical/horizontal), and shape (circle/square). In the first stage, we presented S+ and 4 S-stimuli: the first that differed in all 4-dimensional values from S+, the second with brightness dimension sharing with S+, the third sharing brightness and orientation with S+, the fourth sharing brightness, orientation and size. Then all 16 stimuli were added. Pigeons rejected correctly 6-8 of 11 new added S-stimuli at the beginning of the second stage. The results revealed that pigeons’ behavior at the beginning of the second stage was controlled by probabilities of rewarding for 4 dimensions learned in the first stage. More or fewer mistakes with dimension discrimination at the beginning of the second stage depended on the number S- stimuli sharing the dimension with S+ in the first stage. A significant inverse correlation between the number of S- stimuli sharing dimension values with S+ in the first stage and the dimensional learning rate at the beginning of the second stage was found. Pigeons were more confident in discrimination of shape and size dimensions. They made mistakes at the beginning of the second stage, which were not associated with these dimensions. Thus, the received results help elucidate the principles of dimensional stimulus control during learning compound multidimensional visual stimuli.

Keywords: visual go/no go discrimination, selective attention, dimensional stimulus control, pigeon

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Authors: Pranil Kumar Upadhayaya

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While peace is dividend to tourism, tourism can also be a vital force for world peace. The existing body of knowledge on a tripartite complex nexus between tourism, peace and conflict reveals that tourism is benefactor to peace and sensitive to conflict. By contextualizing the ongoing sporadic structural conflict in the transitional phase in the aftermath of a decade long (1996-2006), Maoist armed conflict in Nepal, the purpose of this study is to explore the potentials of tourism in peace-building. The outcomes of this research paper is based on the mixed methods of research (qualitative and quantitative). Though the armed conflict ended with the comprehensive peace agreement in 2006 but there is constant manifestations of non-violent structural conflicts, which continue to threaten the sustainability of tourism industry. With the persistent application of coping strategies, tourism is found resilient during the ongoing structural political conflict. The strong coping abilities of the private sector of tourism industry have also intersected with peace-building efforts with more reactive and less proactive (pro-peace) engagements. This paper ascertains about the application of the ‘theory of tourism security’ by Nepalese tourism industry while coping with conflict and reviving, and sustaining. It reveals that the multiple verities of tourism at present has heterogeneous degree of peace potentials. The opportunities of ‘peace through tourism’ can be promoted subject to its molding with responsible, sustainable and participatory characteristics. This paper comes out with pragmatic policy recommendations for strengthening the position of tourism as a true peace-builder: (a) a broad shift from mainstream conventional tourism to the community based rural with local participation and ownership to fulfill Nepal’s potentials for peace, and (b) building and applications of the managerial and operational codes of conducts for owners and workers (labor unions) at all tourism enterprises and strengthen their practices.

Keywords: code of conduct, community based tourism, conflict, peace-building, tourism

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Authors: Yang Shen, Yongpan Cheng, Jinliang Xu

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The effective blade cooling is of great significance for improving the performance of turbine. The mist cooling emerges as the promising way compared with the transitional single-phase cooling. In the mist cooling, the injected droplet will evaporate rapidly, and cool down the blade surface due to the absorbed latent heat, hence the lifetime for evaporating droplet becomes critical for design of cooling passages for the blade. So far there have been extensive studies on the droplet evaporation, but usually the isothermal model is applied for most of the studies. Actually the surface cooling effect can affect the droplet evaporation greatly, it can prolong the droplet evaporation lifetime significantly. In our study, a new theoretical model for sessile droplet evaporation with surface cooling effect is built up in toroidal coordinate. Three evaporation modes are analyzed during the evaporation lifetime, include “Constant Contact Radius”(CCR) mode、“Constant Contact Angle”(CCA) mode and “stick-slip”(SS) mode. The dimensionless number E0 is introduced to indicate the strength of the evaporative cooling, it is defined based on the thermal properties of the liquid and the atmosphere. Our model can predict accurately the lifetime of evaporation by validating with available experimental data. Then the temporal variation of droplet volume, contact angle and contact radius are presented under CCR, CCA and SS mode, the following conclusions are obtained. 1) The larger the dimensionless number E0, the longer the lifetime of three evaporation cases is; 2) The droplet volume over time still follows “2/3 power law” in the CCA mode, as in the isothermal model without the cooling effect; 3) In the “SS” mode, the large transition contact angle can reduce the evaporation time in CCR mode, and increase the time in CCA mode, the overall lifetime will be increased; 4) The correction factor for predicting instantaneous volume of the droplet is derived to predict the droplet life time accurately. These findings may be of great significance to explore the dynamics and heat transfer of sessile droplet evaporation.

Keywords: blade cooling, droplet evaporation, lifetime, theoretical analysis

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Authors: Sally Heyeon Hwang

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Within decision theory, there are normative principles that dictate how one should act in addition to empirical theories of actual behavior. As a normative guide to one’s actual behavior, evidential or causal decision-theoretic equations allow one to identify outcomes with maximal utility values. The choice that each person makes, however, will, of course, differ according to varying assignments of weight and probability values. Regarding these different choices, it remains a subject of considerable philosophical controversy whether individual subjects have the capacity to exercise free will with respect to the assignment of probabilities, or whether instead the assignment is in some way constrained. A version of this question is given a precise form in Richard Jeffrey’s assumption that free will is necessary for Newcomb’s paradox to count as a decision problem. This paper will argue, against Jeffrey, that decision theory does not require the assumption of libertarian freedom. One of the hallmarks of decision-making is its application across a wide variety of contexts; the implications of a background assumption of free will is similarly varied. One constant across the contexts of decision is that there are always at least two levels of choice for a given agent, depending on the degree of prior constraint. Within the context of Newcomb’s problem, when the predictor is attempting to guess the choice the agent will make, he or she is analyzing the determined aspects of the agent such as past characteristics, experiences, and knowledge. On the other hand, as David Lewis’ backtracking argument concerning the relationship between past and present events brings to light, there are similarly varied ways in which the past can actually be dependent on the present. One implication of this argument is that even in deterministic settings, an agent can have more free will than it may seem. This paper will thus argue against the view that a stable background assumption of free will or determinism in decision theory is necessary, arguing instead for a compatibilist decision theory yielding a novel treatment of Newcomb’s problem.

Keywords: decision theory, compatibilism, free will, Newcomb’s problem

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Authors: Pius Marthin, Nihal Ata Tutkun

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Survival analysis has become one of the paramount procedures in the modeling of time-to-event data. When we encounter complex survival problems, the traditional approach remains limited in accounting for the complex correlational structure between the covariates and the outcome due to the strong assumptions that limit the inference and prediction ability of the resulting models. Several studies exist on the deep learning approach to survival modeling; moreover, the application for the case of complex survival problems still needs to be improved. In addition, the existing models need to address the data structure's complexity fully and are subject to noise and redundant information. In this study, we design a deep learning technique (CmpXRnnSurv_AE) that obliterates the limitations imposed by traditional approaches and addresses the above issues to jointly predict the risk-specific probabilities and survival function for recurrent events with competing risks. We introduce the component termed Risks Information Weights (RIW) as an attention mechanism to compute the weighted cumulative incidence function (WCIF) and an external auto-encoder (ExternalAE) as a feature selector to extract complex characteristics among the set of covariates responsible for the cause-specific events. We train our model using synthetic and real data sets and employ the appropriate metrics for complex survival models for evaluation. As benchmarks, we selected both traditional and machine learning models and our model demonstrates better performance across all datasets.

Keywords: cumulative incidence function (CIF), risk information weight (RIW), autoencoders (AE), survival analysis, recurrent events with competing risks, recurrent neural networks (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), self-attention, multilayers perceptrons (MLPs)

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Authors: Taleb L., Benarbia M., Boutira F. M., Allam H., Boukerche A.

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Introduction and purpose of the study: Meningiomas are the most common non-glial intracranial tumors in adults, accounting for approximately 30% of all central nervous system tumors. The aim of our study is to determine the epidemiological, clinical, therapeutic, and evolutionary characteristics of a cohort of patients with intracranial meningioma treated with radiotherapy at the Emir Abdelkader Cancer Center in Oran. Material and methods: This is a retrospective study of 44 patients during the period from 2014 to 2020. The overall survival and relapse-free survival curves were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results and statistical analysis: The median age of the patients was 49 years [21-76 years] with a clear female predominance (sex ratio=2.4). The average diagnostic delay was seven months [2 to 24 months], the circumstances of the discovery of which were dominated by headaches in 54.5% of cases (n=24), visual disturbances in 40.9% (n=18), and motor disorders in 15.9% (n=7). The seat of the tumor was essentially at the level of the base of the skull in 52.3% of patients (n=23), including 29.5% (n=13) at the level of the cavernous sinus, 27.3% (n=12) at the parasagittal level and 20.5% (n=9) at the convexity. The diagnosis was confirmed surgically in 36 patients (81.8%) whose anatomopathological study returned in favor of grades I, II, and III in respectively 40.9%, 29.5%, and 11.4% of the cases. Radiotherapy was indicated postoperatively in 45.5% of patients (n=20), exclusive in 27.3% (n=12) and after tumor recurrence in 27.3% of cases (n=18). The irradiation doses delivered were as follows: 50 Gy (20.5%), 54 Gy (65.9%), and 60 Gy (13.6%). With a median follow-up of 69 months, the probabilities of relapse-free survival and overall survival at three years are 93.2% and 95.4%, respectively, whereas they are 71.2% and 80.7% at five years. Conclusion: Meningiomas are common primary brain tumors. Most often benign but can also progress aggressively. Their treatment is essentially surgical, but radiotherapy retains its place in specific situations, allowing good tumor control and overall survival.

Keywords: diagnosis, meningioma, surgery, radiotherapy, survival

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Authors: Mahmoud Abualsoud

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The era of Thutmosis III represents a transitional period between the art of the Thutmoside art and the Amarna period, so we intend to declare that it serves as the cradle of Amarna art. The study will examine the Statues of king Thutmose III that was discovered in Luxor by an Egyptian mission. These Statues have been transferred to the Conservation Center of the Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM) to be conserved and made ready to be displayed at the new museum (the project of the century). We focus on three Statues chosen because they relate to different years of the king's reign. These Statues were all made of granite. The first one is a Kneeling statue representing the god Amun showing king Thutmose III offering to the goddess Hathor. The second is decorated with king Thutmose III with the red crown, between the goddess Hathor and the royal wife, Nefertari. The third shows the king offering NW vessels and bread to the god Seker. Each statue is divided into registers containing a description and decorated with scenes of the king presenting offerings to gods. The proposed study will focus on the development which happened sequentially according to differences that occur in each statue. We will use comparative research to determine the workshops of these statues, whether one or several, and what are the distinguishing features of each one. We will examine what innovations the artisans added to royal art. The description and the texts will be translated with linguistic comments. This research focuses on text analyses and technology. Paleographic information found on these objects includes the names and titles of the king. This research focuses on text analyses and technology. The study aims to create a manual that may help in dating the artwork of Thutmosis III. This research will be beneficial and useful for heritage and ancient civilizations, particularly when we talk about opening museums like the Grand Egyptian Museum, which will exhibit a collection of statues. Indeed, this kind of study will open a new destination in order to know how to identify these collections and how to exhibit them commensurate with the nature of ancient Egyptian history and heritage.

Keywords: archaeological study, Giza, new kingdom, statues, royal art

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Authors: G. Stamatopoulou, M. Symeonaki, C. Michalopoulou

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In this work, we study the intergenerational social mobility in Greece, in order to provide up-to-date evidence on the changes in the mobility patterns throughout the years. An analysis for both men and women aged between 25-64 years old is carried out. Three main research objectives are addressed. First, we aim to examine the relationship between the socio-economic status of parents and their children. Secondly, we investigate the evolution of the mobility patterns between different birth cohorts. Finally, the role of education is explored in shaping the mobility patterns. For the analysis, we draw data on both parental and individuals' social outcomes from different national databases. The social class of origins and destination is measured according to the European Socio-Economic Classification (ESeC), while the respondents' educational attainment is coded into categories based on the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED). Applying the Markov transition probability theory, and a range of measures and models, this work focuses on the magnitude and the direction of the movements that take place in the Greek labour market, as well as the level of social fluidity. Three-way mobility tables are presented, where the transition probabilities between the classes of destination and origins are calculated for different cohorts. Additionally, a range of absolute and relative mobility rates, as well as distance measures, are presented. The study covers a large time span beginning in 1940 until 1995, shedding light on the effects of the national institutional processes on the social movements of individuals. Given the evidence on the mobility patterns of the most recent birth cohorts, we also investigate the possible effects of the 2008 economic crisis.

Keywords: cohort analysis, education, Greece, intergenerational mobility, social class

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Authors: Yue Wang, Fan Chen

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After the economic reform in 1978, the urbanization in China has grown fast. It urged cities to expand in an unprecedented high speed. Villages around were annexed unprepared, and it turned out to be a new type of community called 'village in city.' Two things happened here. First, the locals gave up farming and turned to secondary industry and tertiary industry, as a result of losing their land. Secondly, attracted by the high income in cities and low rent here, plenty of migrants came into the community. This area is important to a city in rapid growth for providing a transitional zone. But thanks to its passivity and low development, 'village in city' has caused lots of trouble to the city. Densities of population and construction are both high, while facilities are severely inadequate. Unplanned and illegal structures are built, which creates a complex mixed-function area and leads to a bad residential area. Besides, the locals have a strong property right consciousness for the land. It holds back the transformation and development of the community. Although the land capitalization can bring significant benefits, it’s inappropriate to make a great financial compensation to the locals, and considering the large population of city migrants, it’s important to explore the relationship among the 'village in city,' city immigrants and the city itself. Taking the example of Hangzhou, this paper analyzed the developing process, functions spatial distribution, industrial structure and current traffic system of 'village in city.' Above the research on the community, this paper put forward a common method to make urban planning through the following ways: adding city functions, building civil facilities, re-planning functions spatial distribution, changing the constitution of local industry and planning new traffic system. Under this plan, 'village in city' finally can be absorbed into cities and make its own contribution to the urbanization.

Keywords: China, city immigrant, urbanization, village in city

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Authors: Titanilla Komenda

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Human-machine-collaboration defines a direct interaction between humans and machines to fulfil specific tasks. Those so-called collaborative machines are used without fencing and interact with humans in predefined workspaces. Even though, human-machine-collaboration enables a flexible adaption to variable degrees of freedom, industrial applications are rarely found. The reasons for this are not technical progress but rather limitations in planning processes ensuring safety for operators. Until now, humans and machines were mainly considered separately in the planning process, focusing on ergonomics and system performance respectively. Within human-machine-collaboration, those aspects must not be seen in isolation from each other but rather need to be analysed in interaction. Furthermore, a simulation model is needed that can validate the system performance and ensure the safety for the operator at any given time. Following on from this, a holistic simulation model is presented, enabling a simulative representation of collaborative tasks – including both, humans and machines. The presented model does not only include a geometry and a motion model of interacting humans and machines but also a numerical behaviour model of humans as well as a Boole’s probabilistic sensor model. With this, error scenarios can be simulated by validating system behaviour in unplanned situations. As these models can be defined on the basis of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis as well as probabilities of errors, the implementation in a collaborative model is discussed and evaluated regarding limitations and simulation times. The functionality of the model is shown on industrial applications by comparing simulation results with video data. The analysis shows the impact of considering human factors in the planning process in contrast to only meeting system performance. In this sense, an optimisation function is presented that meets the trade-off between human and machine factors and aids in a successful and safe realisation of collaborative scenarios.

Keywords: human-machine-system, human-robot-collaboration, safety, simulation

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Authors: Kamran Yazdanbakhsh, Somayeh Mahmoudi

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Three reasons make good use of the decision theory in medicine: 1. Increased medical knowledge and their complexity makes it difficult treatment information effectively without resorting to sophisticated analytical methods, especially when it comes to detecting errors and identify opportunities for treatment from databases of large size. 2. There is a wide geographic variability of medical practice. In a context where medical costs are, at least in part, by the patient, these changes raise doubts about the relevance of the choices made by physicians. These differences are generally attributed to differences in estimates of probabilities of success of treatment involved, and differing assessments of the results on success or failure. Without explicit criteria for decision, it is difficult to identify precisely the sources of these variations in treatment. 3. Beyond the principle of informed consent, patients need to be involved in decision-making. For this, the decision process should be explained and broken down. A decision problem is to select the best option among a set of choices. The problem is what is meant by "best option ", or know what criteria guide the choice. The purpose of decision theory is to answer this question. The systematic use of decision models allows us to better understand the differences in medical practices, and facilitates the search for consensus. About this, there are three types of situations: situations certain, risky situations, and uncertain situations: 1. In certain situations, the consequence of each decision are certain. 2. In risky situations, every decision can have several consequences, the probability of each of these consequences is known. 3. In uncertain situations, each decision can have several consequences, the probability is not known. Our aim in this article is to show how decision theory can usefully be mobilized to meet the needs of physicians. The decision theory can make decisions more transparent: first, by clarifying the data systematically considered the problem and secondly by asking a few basic principles should guide the choice. Once the problem and clarified the decision theory provides operational tools to represent the available information and determine patient preferences, and thus assist the patient and doctor in their choices.

Keywords: decision making, medicine, treatment strategies, patient

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Authors: Rene Jimenez, Sonia E. Ruiz, Miguel A. Orellana

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On 09/19/2017, a Mw = 7.1 intraslab earthquake occurred in Mexico causing the collapse of about 40 buildings. Many of these were 5- or 6-story buildings with soft first story; so, it is desirable to perform a structural fragility analysis of typical structures representative of those buildings and to propose a reliable structural solution. Here, a typical 5-story building constituted by regular R/C moment-resisting frames in the first story and confined masonry walls in the upper levels, similar to the collapsed structures on the 09/19/2017 Mexico earthquake, is analyzed. Three different structural solutions of the 5-story building are considered: S1) it is designed in accordance with the Mexico City Building Code-2004; S2) then, the column dimensions of the first story corresponding to S1 are reduced, and S3) viscous dampers are added at the first story of solution S2. A number of dynamic incremental analyses are performed for each structural solution, using a 3D structural model. The hysteretic behavior model of the masonry was calibrated with experiments performed at the Laboratory of Structures at UNAM. Ten seismic ground motions are used to excite the structures; they correspond to ground motions recorded in intermediate soil of Mexico City with a dominant period around 1s, where the structures are located. The fragility curves of the buildings are obtained for different values of the maximum inter-story drift demands. Results show that solutions S1 and S3 give place to similar probabilities of exceedance of a given value of inter-story drift for the same seismic intensity, and that solution S2 presents a higher probability of exceedance for the same seismic intensity and inter-story drift demand. Therefore, it is concluded that solution S3 (which corresponds to the building with soft first story and energy dissipation devices) can be a reliable solution from the structural point of view.

Keywords: demand hazard analysis, fragility curves, incremental dynamic analyzes, soft-first story, structural capacity

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Authors: A. Bertašienė

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Energy harvesting from any structure makes a challenge. Different structure of air/wind flows in industrial, environmental and residential applications emerge the real flow investigation in detail. Many of the application fields are hardly achievable to the detailed description due to the lack of up-to-date statistical data analysis. In situ measurements aim crucial investments thus the simulation methods come to implement structural analysis of the flows. Different configurations of testing environment give an overview how important is the simple structure of field in limited area on efficiency of the system operation and the energy output. Several configurations of modeled working sections in air flow test facility was implemented in CFD ANSYS environment to compare experimentally and numerically air flow development stages and forms that make effects on efficiency of devices and processes. Effective form and amount of these flows under different geometry cases define the manner of instruments/devices that measure fluid flow parameters for effective operation of any system and emission flows to define. Different fluid flow regimes were examined to show the impact of fluctuations on the development of the whole volume of the flow in specific environment. The obtained results rise the discussion on how these simulated flow fields are similar to real application ones. Experimental results have some discrepancies from simulation ones due to the models implemented to fluid flow analysis in initial stage, not developed one and due to the difficulties of models to cover transitional regimes. Recommendations are essential for energy harvesting systems in both, indoor and outdoor cases. Further investigations aim to be shifted to experimental analysis of flow under laboratory conditions using state-of-the-art techniques as flow visualization tool and later on to in situ situations that is complicated, cost and time consuming study.

Keywords: fluid flow, initial region, tube coefficient, distinct shape

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Authors: Ahmed Mamdouh

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Introduction: The era of Thutmosis III represents a transitional period between the art of the Thutmoside art and the Amarna period, so we intend to declare that it serves as the cradle of Amarna art. The study will examine the Statues of king Thutmose III that was discovered in Luxor by an Egyptian mission. These Statues have been transferred to the Conservation Center of the Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM) to be conserved and made ready to bedisplayed at the new museum (the project of the century). We focus upon three Statues (GEM numbers 45863, 45864, 45865), chosen because they relate to different years of the king's reign. These Statues were all made of granite. The first one is a Kneeling statue representing the god Amun showing king Thutmose III offering to the goddess Hathor. The second is decorated with king Thutmose III with the red crown, between the goddess Hathor and the royal wife, Nefertari. The third shows the king offering NW vessels and bread to the god Seker. Each Statue is divided into registers containing a description and decorated with scenes of the king presenting offerings to gods. Methodology: The proposed study will focus on the development which happened sequentially according to differences that occur in each Statue. We will use comparative research to determine the workshops of these statues, whether one or several, and what are the distinguishing features of each one. We will examine what innovations the artisans added to royal art. The description and the texts will be translated with linguistic comments. This research focuses on text analyses and technology. Paleographic information found on these objects includes the names and titles of the king. Conclusion: This research focuses on text analyses and technology. The study aims to create a manual that may help in dating the artwork of Thutmosis III. This research will be beneficial and useful for heritage and ancient civilizations, particularly when we talk about opening museums like the Grand Egyptian museum, which will exhibit a collection of statues. Indeed this kind of study will open a new destination in order to know how to identify these collections and how to exhibit them commensurate with the nature of ancient Egyptian history and heritage.

Keywords: archaeological study, Giza, new kingdom, statues, royal art

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Authors: Aimen Saleh

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The Silurian Lower Acacus sandstone is one of the main reservoirs in North West Libya. Our aim in this study is to grasp a robust understanding of the hydrocarbon potential and distribution in the area. To date, the depositional environment of the Lower Acacus reservoir still open to discussion and contradiction. Henceforth, building three dimensional (3D) property modelling is one way to support the analysis and description of the reservoir, its properties and characterizations, so this will be of great value in this project. The 3D model integrates different data set, these incorporates well logs data, petrophysical reservoir properties and seismic data as well. The finalized depositional environment model of the Lower Acacus concludes that the area is located in a deltaic transitional depositional setting, which ranges from a wave dominated delta into tide dominated delta type. This interpretation carried out through a series of steps of model generation, core description and Formation Microresistivity Image tool (FMI) interpretation. After the analysis of the core data, the Lower Acacus layers shows a strong effect of tidal energy. Whereas these traces found imprinted in different types of sedimentary structures, for examples; presence of some crossbedding, such as herringbones structures, wavy and flaser cross beddings. In spite of recognition of some minor marine transgression events in the area, on the contrary, the coarsening upward cycles of sand and shale layers in the Lower Acacus demonstrate presence of a major regressive phase of the sea level. However, consequently, we produced a final package of this model in a complemented set of facies distribution, porosity and oil presence. And also it shows the record of the petroleum system, and the procedure of Hydrocarbon migration and accumulation. Finally, this model suggests that the area can be outlined into three main segments of hydrocarbon potential, which can be a textbook guide for future exploration and production strategies in the area.

Keywords: Acacus, Ghadames , Libya, Silurian

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Authors: Rukhsana Kausar, Issam Malki

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The integration and assimilation of ethnic minority immigrants (EMIs) and their subsequent generations remains a serious unsettled issue in most of the host countries. This study conducts the labour market gender analysis to investigate specifically whether second generation of ethnic minority immigrants in the UK is gaining access to professional and managerial employment and advantaged occupational positions on par with their native counterparts. The data used to examine the labour market achievements of EMIs is taken from Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the period 2014-2018. We apply a multivalued treatment under ignorability as proposed by Cattaneo (2010), which refers to treatment effects under the assumptions of (i) selection – on – observables and (ii) common support. We report estimates of Average Treatment Effect (ATE), Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATET), and Potential Outcomes Means (POM) using three estimators, including the Regression Adjustment (RA), Augmented Inverse Probability Weighting (AIPW) and Inverse Probability Weighting- Regression Adjustment (IPWRA). We consider two cases: the case with four categories where the first-generation natives are the base category, the second case combine all natives as a base group. Our findings suggest the following. Under Case 1, the estimated probabilities and differences across groups are consistently similar and highly significant. As expected, first generation natives have the highest probability for higher career attainment among both men and women. The findings also suggest that first generation immigrants perform better than the remaining two groups, including the second-generation natives and immigrants. Furthermore, second generation immigrants have higher probability to attain higher professional career, while this is lower for a managerial career. Similar conclusions are reached under Case 2. That is to say that both first – generation and second – generation immigrants have a lower probability for higher career and managerial attainment. First – generation immigrants are found to perform better than second – generation immigrants.

Keywords: immigrnats, second generation, occupational attainment, ethnicity

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Authors: N. Nivedita, S. Durbha

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Critical Infrastructure (CI) consists of services and technological networks such as healthcare, transport, water supply, electricity supply, information technology etc. These systems are necessary for the well-being and to maintain effective functioning of society. Critical Infrastructures can be represented as nodes in a network where they are connected through a set of links depicting the logical relationship among them; these nodes are interdependent on each other and interact with each at other at various levels, such that the state of each infrastructure influences or is correlated to the state of another. Disruption in the service of one infrastructure nodes of the network during a disaster would lead to cascading and escalating disruptions across other infrastructures nodes in the network. The operation of Healthcare Infrastructure is one such Critical Infrastructure that depends upon a complex interdependent network of other Critical Infrastructure, and during disasters it is very vital for the Healthcare Infrastructure to be protected, accessible and prepared for a mass casualty. To reduce the consequences of a disaster on the Critical Infrastructure and to ensure a resilient Critical Health Infrastructure network, knowledge, understanding, modeling, and analyzing the inter-dependencies between the infrastructures is required. The paper would present inter-dependencies related to Healthcare Critical Infrastructure based on Hierarchical Coloured Petri Nets modeling approach, given a flood scenario as the disaster which would disrupt the infrastructure nodes. The model properties are being analyzed for the various state changes which occur when there is a disruption or damage to any of the Critical Infrastructure. The failure probabilities for the failure risk of interconnected systems are calculated by deriving a reachability graph, which is later mapped to a Markov chain. By analytically solving and analyzing the Markov chain, the overall vulnerability of the Healthcare CI HCPN model is demonstrated. The entire model would be integrated with Geographic information-based decision support system to visualize the dynamic behavior of the interdependency of the Healthcare and related CI network in a geographically based environment.

Keywords: critical infrastructure interdependency, hierarchical coloured petrinet, healthcare critical infrastructure, Petri Nets, Markov chain

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Authors: Hasan Muslemani, Xi Liang, Kathi Kaesehage, Francisco Ascui, Jeffrey Wilson

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The creation of a market for lower-carbon steel products, here called ‘green steel’, has been identified as an important means to support the introduction of breakthrough emission reduction technologies into the steel sector. However, the definition of what ‘green’ entails in the context of steel production, the implications on the competitiveness of green steel products in local and international markets, and the necessary market mechanisms to support their successful market penetration remain poorly explored. This paper addresses this gap by holding semi-structured interviews with international sustainability experts and commercial managers from leading steel trade associations, research institutes and steelmakers. Our findings show that there is an urgent need to establish a set of standards to define what ‘greenness’ means in the steelmaking context; standards that avoid market disruptions, unintended consequences, and opportunities for greenwashing. We also highlight that the introduction of green steel products will have implications on product competitiveness on three different levels: 1) between primary and secondary steelmaking routes, 2) with traditional, lesser green steel, and 3) with other substitutable materials (e.g. cement and plastics). This paper emphasises the need for steelmakers to adopt a transitional approach in deploying different low-carbon technologies, based on their stage of technological maturity, applicability in certain country contexts, capacity to reduce emissions over time, and the ability of the investment community to support their deployment. We further identify market mechanisms to support green steel production, including carbon border adjustments and public procurement, highlighting a need for implementing a combination of complementary policies to ensure the products’ roll-out. The study further shows that the auto industry is a likely candidate for green steel consumption, where a market would be supported by price premiums paid by willing consumers, such as those of high-end luxury vehicles.

Keywords: green steel, decarbonisation, business model innovation, market analysis

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Authors: Dina Mohamed Ayman, Rafieu Akin

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In an attempt to increase the female total entrepreneurial activities (TEA) within Egypt and Nigeria, this paper aims to investigate the challenges facing female entrepreneurs operating in Egypt, in relative to Nigeria. In this regard, both researchers undertook a qualitative approach due to the scarcity of the literature reviewed on the topic; in those particular countries, and as an in-depth comparative mode. Therefore, ten Egyptian entrepreneurs in relative to ten Nigerian entrepreneurs were in-depth investigated. The research findings prove that female entrepreneurs face complex problems for being both gender and country-specific. Regarding the gender-specific obstacles, the work/life imbalance due to the scarcity of child-care nurseries and the prevalence of the gender-role division while performing the house chores rather than the concept of co-operation, acted as a main source of cultural challenge because women are considered mostly as 'housewives'. However, interestingly, this specific gender-discrimination challenge is proven to have no grounded effect in terms of the business-establishment and daily dealings neither in Egypt nor Nigeria, as one of the sample exclaimed 'as long as you pay, then no gender difference is set on the table'. Other country-specific challenges facing female entrepreneurs, lied in, the aggregate weak entrepreneurial framework governing both countries, also, women faced the difficulty of access to financial institutions with collateral requirements that are usually "hardly to be met", besides, the absence of the "micro-credit-Grameen-banks" concept. As well, the scarcity of incubators and business training centers providing network, consultancy and well-trained workforce to female entrepreneurs constitute a major hurdle for women entrepreneurs operating in both countries. Finally, this paper will conclude the research by offering a set of public-policy recommendations to pave the way for females to choose self-employment as a career path.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, female entrepreneurship, obstacles, framework conditions, culture, micro-credit

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Authors: Aparna Lal, Ashwin Swaminathan, Teisa Holani

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Background: Clostridium difficile infections (CDIs) have been on the rise globally. In Australia, rates of CDI in all States and Territories have increased significantly since mid-2011. Identifying risk factors for CDI in the community can help inform targeted interventions to reduce infection. Methods: We examine the role of neighbourhood socio-economic status, demography, testing practices and the number of residential aged care facilities on spatial patterns in CDI incidence in the Australian Capital Territory. Data on all tests conducted for CDI were obtained from ACT Pathology by postcode for the period 1st January 2004 through 31 December 2014. Distribution of age groups and the neighbourhood Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage Disadvantage (IRSAD) were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011 National Census data. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model was fitted at the postcode level to quantify the relationship between CDI and socio-demographic factors. To identify CDI hotspots, exceedance probabilities were set at a threshold of twice the estimated relative risk. Results: CDI showed a positive spatial association with the number of tests (RR=1.01, 95% CI 1.00, 1.02) and the resident population over 65 years (RR=1.00, 95% CI 1.00, 1.01). The standardized index of relative socio-economic advantage disadvantage (IRSAD) was significantly negatively associated with CDI (RR=0.74, 95% CI 0.56, 0.94). We identified three postcodes with high probability (0.8-1.0) of excess risk. Conclusions: Here, we demonstrate geographic variations in CDI in the ACT with a positive association of CDI with socioeconomic disadvantage and identify areas with a high probability of elevated risk compared with surrounding communities. These findings highlight community-based risk factors for CDI.

Keywords: spatial, socio-demographic, infection, Clostridium difficile

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Authors: Valerii Dashuk

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The usage of the confidence intervals in economics and econometrics is widespread. To be able to investigate a random variable more thoroughly, joint tests are applied. One of such examples is joint mean-variance test. A new approach for testing such hypotheses and constructing confidence sets is introduced. Exploring both the value of the random variable and its deviation with the help of this technique allows checking simultaneously the shift and the probability of that shift (i.e., portfolio risks). Another application is based on the normal distribution, which is fully defined by mean and variance, therefore could be tested using the introduced approach. This method is based on the difference of probability density functions. The starting point is two sets of normal distribution parameters that should be compared (whether they may be considered as identical with given significance level). Then the absolute difference in probabilities at each 'point' of the domain of these distributions is calculated. This measure is transformed to a function of cumulative distribution functions and compared to the critical values. Critical values table was designed from the simulations. The approach was compared with the other techniques for the univariate case. It differs qualitatively and quantitatively in easiness of implementation, computation speed, accuracy of the critical region (theoretical vs. real significance level). Stable results when working with outliers and non-normal distributions, as well as scaling possibilities, are also strong sides of the method. The main advantage of this approach is the possibility to extend it to infinite-dimension case, which was not possible in the most of the previous works. At the moment expansion to 2-dimensional state is done and it allows to test jointly up to 5 parameters. Therefore the derived technique is equivalent to classic tests in standard situations but gives more efficient alternatives in nonstandard problems and on big amounts of data.

Keywords: confidence set, cumulative distribution function, hypotheses testing, normal distribution, probability density function

Procedia PDF Downloads 146