Search results for: supercritical regime
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 804

Search results for: supercritical regime

624 Analgesia in Acute Traumatic Rib Fractures

Authors: A. Duncan, A. Blake, A. O'Gara, J. Fitzgerald

Abstract:

Introduction: Acute traumatic rib fractures have significant morbidity and mortality and are a commonly seen injury in trauma patients. Rib fracture pain can often be acute and can prove challenging to manage. We performed an audit on patients with acute traumatic rib fractures with the aim of composing a referral and treatment pathway for such patients. Methods: From January 2021 to January 2022, the pain medicine service encouraged early referral of all traumatic rib fractures to the pain service for a multi-modal management approach. A retrospective audit of analgesic management was performed on a select cohort of 24 patients, with a mean age of 67, of which 19 had unilateral rib fractures. Results: 17 of 24 patients (71%) underwent local, regional block as part of a multi-modal analgesia regime. Only one regional complication was observed, seen with hypotension occurring in one patient with a thoracic epidural. The group who did not undergo regional block had a length of stay (LOS) 17 days longer than those who did (27 vs. 10) and higher rates of pneumonia (29% vs. 18%). Conclusion: Early referral to pain specialists is an important component of the effective management of acute traumatic rib fractures. From our audit, it is evident that regional blocks can be effectively used in these cases as part of a multi-modal analgesia regime and may confer benefits in terms of respiratory complications and length of stay.

Keywords: rib fractures, regional blocks, thoracic epidural, erector spina block

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623 Aggregation of Fractal Aggregates Inside Fractal Cages in Irreversible Diffusion Limited Cluster Aggregation Binary Systems

Authors: Zakiya Shireen, Sujin B. Babu

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Irreversible diffusion-limited cluster aggregation (DLCA) of binary sticky spheres was simulated by modifying the Brownian Cluster Dynamics (BCD). We randomly distribute N spheres in a 3D box of size L, the volume fraction is given by Φtot = (π/6)N/L³. We identify NA and NB number of spheres as species A and B in our system both having identical size. In these systems, both A and B particles undergo Brownian motion. Irreversible bond formation happens only between intra-species particles and inter-species interact only through hard-core repulsions. As we perform simulation using BCD we start to observe binary gels. In our study, we have observed that species B always percolate (cluster size equal to L) as expected for the monomeric case and species A does not percolate below a critical ratio which is different for different volume fractions. We will also show that the accessible volume of the system increases when compared to the monomeric case, which means that species A is aggregating inside the cage created by B. We have also observed that for moderate Φtot the system undergoes a transition from flocculation region to percolation region indicated by the change in fractal dimension from 1.8 to 2.5. For smaller ratio of A, it stays in the flocculation regime even though B have already crossed over to the percolation regime. Thus, we observe two fractal dimension in the same system.

Keywords: BCD, fractals, percolation, sticky spheres

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622 Mapping the Ties That Bind: Corruption, Political Alienation and Culture of Corruption

Authors: Mabrouka Immhemd Al-Werfalli

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How are political alienation and corruption related? What is the nature of relationship linking corruption and political alienation? When citizens withdraw their loyalty from their political regime and leaders, they highlight their alienation from them. The link between corruption and political alienation is that the individual would intentionally involve in corruption particularly when a state of lawlessness prevails. This paper represents a challenge- how to gauge a link between political alienation culture of corruption and corruption. It aims to highlight the political alienation related factors that determine the levels of corruption in Libya. One of the most prominent reasons for the Libyan uprising in February 2011 was the pervasiveness of corruption. Corruption in Libya remained a significant problem despite a robust anti-corruption discourse and harsh legislation undertaken by the previous regime. The long-standing political corruption in Libya has offered ample opportunity for the evolution of a structure of negative values and morals. This has formed what is termed as a ‘culture of corruption’, which has induced people to accept and justify corrupt behavior. The paper is a part of a study concerns the phenomenon of political alienation in Libya which was based on a survey conducted in 2001 in the city of Benghazi. The finding shows that abuse of power, embezzlement and misuse of public funds for personal enrichment was thought to be rife within public bodies, institutions, companies, factories, banks and enterprises owned entirely or partially by the state.

Keywords: Libya, abuse of power, anti-corruption, corruption, culture of corruption, embezzlement, participation in corruption, political alienation

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621 Assessment of Ultra-High Cycle Fatigue Behavior of EN-GJL-250 Cast Iron Using Ultrasonic Fatigue Testing Machine

Authors: Saeedeh Bakhtiari, Johannes Depessemier, Stijn Hertelé, Wim De Waele

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High cycle fatigue comprising up to 107 load cycles has been the subject of many studies, and the behavior of many materials was recorded adequately in this regime. However, many applications involve larger numbers of load cycles during the lifetime of machine components. In this ultra-high cycle regime, other failure mechanisms play, and the concept of a fatigue endurance limit (assumed for materials such as steel) is often an oversimplification of reality. When machine component design demands a high geometrical complexity, cast iron grades become interesting candidate materials. Grey cast iron is known for its low cost, high compressive strength, and good damping properties. However, the ultra-high cycle fatigue behavior of cast iron is poorly documented. The current work focuses on the ultra-high cycle fatigue behavior of EN-GJL-250 (GG25) grey cast iron by developing an ultrasonic (20 kHz) fatigue testing system. Moreover, the testing machine is instrumented to measure the temperature and the displacement of  the specimen, and to control the temperature. The high resonance frequency allowed to assess the  behavior of the cast iron of interest within a matter of days for ultra-high numbers of cycles, and repeat the tests to quantify the natural scatter in fatigue resistance.

Keywords: GG25, cast iron, ultra-high cycle fatigue, ultrasonic test

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620 Granting Saudi Women the Right to Drive in the Eyes of Qatari Media

Authors: Rasha A. Salameh

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This research attempts to evaluate the treatment provided by the Qatari media to the decision to allow Saudi women to drive, and then activate this decision after a few months, that is, within the time frame between September 26, 2017 until June 30, 2018. This is through asking several questions, including whether the political dispute between Qatar and Saudi Arabia has cast a shadow over this handling, and if these Qatari media handlings are used to criticize the Saudi regime for delaying this step. Here emerges one of the research hypotheses that says that the coverage did not have the required professionalism, due to the fact that the decision and its activation took place in light of the political stalemate between Qatar and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which requires testing the media framing and agenda theories to know to what extent they apply to this case. The research dealt with a sample of five Qatari media read in this sample: Al-Jazeera Net, The New Arab Newspaper, Al-Sharq Newspaper, The Arab Newspaper, and Al-Watan Newspaper. The results showed that most of the authors who covered the decision to allow Saudi women to drive a car did not achieve a balance in their writing, and that almost half of them did not have objectivity, and this indicates the proof of the hypothesis that there is a defect in the professional competence in covering the decision to allow Saudi women to drive cars by means of Qatari media, and the researcher attributes this result to the political position between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, in addition to the fact that the Arab media in most of them are characterized by a low ceiling of freedom, and most of them are identical in their position with the position of the regime’s official view.

Keywords: Saudi women, objectivity, hate speech, stereotype

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619 Analysing the Permanent Deformation of Cohesive Subsoil Subject to Long Term Cyclic Train Loading

Authors: Natalie M. Wride, Xueyu Geng

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Subgrade soils of railway infrastructure are subjected to a significant number of load applications over their design life. The use of slab track on existing and future proposed rail links requires a reduced maintenance and repair regime for the embankment subgrade, due to restricted access to the subgrade soils for remediation caused by cyclic deformation. It is, therefore, important to study the deformation behaviour of soft cohesive subsoils induced as a result of long term cyclic loading. In this study, a series of oedometer tests and cyclic triaxial tests (10,000 cycles) have been undertaken to investigate the undrained deformation behaviour of soft kaolin. X-ray Computer Tomography (CT) scanning of the samples has been performed to determine the change in porosity and soil structure density from the sample microstructure as a result of the laboratory testing regime undertaken. Combined with the examination of excess pore pressures and strains obtained from the cyclic triaxial tests, the results are compared with an existing analytical solution for long term settlement considering repeated low amplitude loading. Modifications to the analytical solution are presented based on the laboratory analysis that shows good agreement with further test data.

Keywords: creep, cyclic loading, deformation, long term settlement, train loading

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618 Optimal Dynamic Regime for CO Oxidation Reaction Discovered by Policy-Gradient Reinforcement Learning Algorithm

Authors: Lifar M. S., Tereshchenko A. A., Bulgakov A. N., Guda S. A., Guda A. A., Soldatov A. V.

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Metal nanoparticles are widely used as heterogeneous catalysts to activate adsorbed molecules and reduce the energy barrier of the reaction. Reaction product yield depends on the interplay between elementary processes - adsorption, activation, reaction, and desorption. These processes, in turn, depend on the inlet feed concentrations, temperature, and pressure. At stationary conditions, the active surface sites may be poisoned by reaction byproducts or blocked by thermodynamically adsorbed gaseous reagents. Thus, the yield of reaction products can significantly drop. On the contrary, the dynamic control accounts for the changes in the surface properties and adjusts reaction parameters accordingly. Therefore dynamic control may be more efficient than stationary control. In this work, a reinforcement learning algorithm has been applied to control the simulation of CO oxidation on a catalyst. The policy gradient algorithm is learned to maximize the CO₂ production rate based on the CO and O₂ flows at a given time step. Nonstationary solutions were found for the regime with surface deactivation. The maximal product yield was achieved for periodic variations of the gas flows, ensuring a balance between available adsorption sites and the concentration of activated intermediates. This methodology opens a perspective for the optimization of catalytic reactions under nonstationary conditions.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, catalyst, co oxidation, reinforcement learning, dynamic control

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617 Cross-Validation of the Data Obtained for ω-6 Linoleic and ω-3 α-Linolenic Acids Concentration of Hemp Oil Using Jackknife and Bootstrap Resampling

Authors: Vibha Devi, Shabina Khanam

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Hemp (Cannabis sativa) possesses a rich content of ω-6 linoleic and ω-3 linolenic essential fatty acid in the ratio of 3:1, which is a rare and most desired ratio that enhances the quality of hemp oil. These components are beneficial for the development of cell and body growth, strengthen the immune system, possess anti-inflammatory action, lowering the risk of heart problem owing to its anti-clotting property and a remedy for arthritis and various disorders. The present study employs supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) approach on hemp seed at various conditions of parameters; temperature (40 - 80) °C, pressure (200 - 350) bar, flow rate (5 - 15) g/min, particle size (0.430 - 1.015) mm and amount of co-solvent (0 - 10) % of solvent flow rate through central composite design (CCD). CCD suggested 32 sets of experiments, which was carried out. As SFE process includes large number of variables, the present study recommends the application of resampling techniques for cross-validation of the obtained data. Cross-validation refits the model on each data to achieve the information regarding the error, variability, deviation etc. Bootstrap and jackknife are the most popular resampling techniques, which create a large number of data through resampling from the original dataset and analyze these data to check the validity of the obtained data. Jackknife resampling is based on the eliminating one observation from the original sample of size N without replacement. For jackknife resampling, the sample size is 31 (eliminating one observation), which is repeated by 32 times. Bootstrap is the frequently used statistical approach for estimating the sampling distribution of an estimator by resampling with replacement from the original sample. For bootstrap resampling, the sample size is 32, which was repeated by 100 times. Estimands for these resampling techniques are considered as mean, standard deviation, variation coefficient and standard error of the mean. For ω-6 linoleic acid concentration, mean value was approx. 58.5 for both resampling methods, which is the average (central value) of the sample mean of all data points. Similarly, for ω-3 linoleic acid concentration, mean was observed as 22.5 through both resampling. Variance exhibits the spread out of the data from its mean. Greater value of variance exhibits the large range of output data, which is 18 for ω-6 linoleic acid (ranging from 48.85 to 63.66 %) and 6 for ω-3 linoleic acid (ranging from 16.71 to 26.2 %). Further, low value of standard deviation (approx. 1 %), low standard error of the mean (< 0.8) and low variance coefficient (< 0.2) reflect the accuracy of the sample for prediction. All the estimator value of variance coefficients, standard deviation and standard error of the mean are found within the 95 % of confidence interval.

Keywords: resampling, supercritical fluid extraction, hemp oil, cross-validation

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616 Re-Imagining and De-Constructing the Global Security Architecture

Authors: Smita Singh

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The paper develops a critical framework to the hegemonic discourses resorted to by the dominant powers in the global security architecture. Within this framework, security is viewed as a discourse through which identities and threats are represented and produced to legitimize the security concerns of few at the cost of others. International security have long been driven and dominated by power relations. Since the end of the Cold War, the global transformations have triggered contestations to the idea of security at both theoretical and practical level. These widening and deepening of the concept of security have challenged the existing power hierarchies at the theoretical level but not altered the substance and actors defining it. When discourses are introduced into security studies, several critical questions erupt: how has power shaped security policies of the globe through language? How does one understand the meanings and impact of those discourses? Who decides the agenda, rules, players and outliers of the security? Language as a symbolic system and form of power is fluid and not fixed. Over the years the dominant Western powers, led by the United States of America have employed various discursive practices such as humanitarian intervention, responsibility to protect, non proliferation, human rights, war on terror and so on to reorient the constitution of identities and interests and hence the policies that need to be adopted for its actualization. These power relations are illustrated in this paper through the narratives used in the nonproliferation regime. The hierarchical security dynamics is a manifestation of the global power relations driven by many factors including discourses.

Keywords: hegemonic discourse, global security, non-proliferation regime, power politics

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615 Social Infrastracture the Case of Education in Ethiopia

Authors: Tekalign Gidi Kure

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This paper addresses a range of serious problems involving higher education in Ethiopia. In spite of increased enrollment in higher education, educational quality is deteriorating afterwards. Thus, this paper tried to assess the role of social infrastructure in education for economic development of the country and examined major critical problems in higher education of Ethiopia such as higher education finance, curriculum development, and instructor’s career development. Primarily the paper discusses the fundamental contributions of social infrastructure in higher education to economic development; namely development of human capital, improved health, life expectancy, increased productivity, and personal saving, then, the paper examines critically higher education in three regimes of Ethiopia (Emperor Regime, Derg Regime and EPDRF/current government). Thus, four main questions were raised during this research: "What are the antecedents of Ethiopia Higher Education System under three regimes?", " what are the current and emerging higher educational needs in Ethiopia economic development?", " what are the role of private sector in addressing the gaps in the higher education of the country and its adverse effect on quality issues? ", and "what improvements are needed in higher education system of Ethiopia?". Documents from Ministry of Education in Ethiopia, National Statistical Abstracts, and Reports from the World Bank and other recognized institutions were used in addition to recent empirical researches conducted in the country. In doing so, care had been taken to reduce prejudiced reports by involving different reports from multiple sources. The paper concludes that during emperor system higher education enrollment was among the very lowest in the world, therefore, the skilled human resource available to guide development were little, but the cost was very high. During the Derg regime where an ideological change in the system penetrated into higher education resulted with the lack of a large amount of resources to support higher education; the war inside and outside the country diverts resources from the sector. The main purpose of this paper is not only to discuss the problems and issues of higher education in the past, but it also investigates the influence that the current expansion of higher education has on the finance, staff, and other resources for the quality of education. The paper concludes that higher education in Ethiopia are financed by government, outdated curriculum and lagging behind the standard regarding qualified staff. Finally, it provided inevitable solutions if the country wants to gain well record in quality of education as well.

Keywords: social infrastructure, higher education, ethiopia, education quality

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614 Consolidating a Regime of State Terror: A Historical Analysis of Necropolitics and the Evolution of Policing Practices in California as a Former Colony, Frontier, and Late-Modern Settler Society

Authors: Peyton M. Provenzano

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This paper draws primarily upon the framework of necropolitics and presents California as itself a former frontier, colony, and late-modern settler society. The convergence of these successive and overlapping regimes of state terror is actualized and traceable through an analysis of historical and contemporary police practices. At the behest of the Spanish Crown and with the assistance of the Spanish military, the Catholic Church led the original expedition to colonize California. The indigenous populations of California were subjected to brutal practices of confinement and enslavement at the missions. After the annex of California by the United States, the western-most territory became an infamous frontier where new settlers established vigilante militias to enact violence against indigenous populations to protect their newly stolen land. Early mining settlements sought to legitimize and fund vigilante violence by wielding the authority of rudimentary democratic structures. White settlers circulated petitions for funding to establish a volunteer company under California’s Militia Law for ‘protection’ against the local indigenous populations. The expansive carceral practices of Los Angelinos at the turn of the 19th century exemplify the way in which California solidified its regime of exclusion as a white settler society. Drawing on recent scholarship that queers the notion of biopower and names police as street-level sovereigns, the police murder of Kayla Moore is understood as the latest manifestation of a carceral regime of exclusion and genocide. Kayla Moore was an African American transgender woman living with a mental health disability that was murdered by Berkeley police responding to a mental health crisis call in 2013. The intersectionality of Kayla’s identity made her hyper-vulnerable to state-sanctioned violence. Kayla was a victim not only of the explicitly racial biopower of police, nor the regulatory state power of necropolitics but of the ‘asphyxia’ that was intended to invisibilize both her life and her murder.

Keywords: asphyxia, biopower, california, carceral state, genocide, necropolitics, police, police violence

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613 Seismotectonic Deformations along Strike-Slip Fault Systems of the Maghreb Region, Western Mediterranean

Authors: Abdelkader Soumaya, Noureddine Ben Ayed, Mojtaba Rajabi, Mustapha Meghraoui, Damien Delvaux, Ali Kadri, Moritz Ziegler, Said Maouche, Ahmed Braham, Aymen Arfaoui

Abstract:

The northern Maghreb region (Western Mediterranean) is a key area to study the seismotectonic deformations across the Africa-Eurasia convergent plate boundary. On the basis of young geologic fault slip data and stress inversion of focal mechanisms, we defined a first-order transpression-compatible stress field and a second-order spatial variation of tectonic regime across the Maghreb region, with a relatively stable SHmax orientation from east to west. Therefore, the present-day active contraction of the western Africa-Eurasia plate boundary is accommodated by (1) E-W strike-slip faulting with a reverse component along the Eastern Tell and Saharan-Tunisian Atlas, (2) a predominantly NE trending thrust faulting with strike-slip component in the Western Tell part, and (3) a conjugate strike-slip faulting regime with a normal component in the Alboran/Rif domain. This spatial variation of the active stress field and the tectonic regime is relatively in agreement with the inferred stress information from neotectonic features. According to newly suggested structural models, we highlight the role of main geometrically complex shear zones in the present-day stress pattern of the Maghreb region. Then, different geometries of these major preexisting strike-slip faults and related fractures (V-shaped conjugate fractures, horsetail splays faults, and Riedel fractures) impose their component on the second- and third-order stress regimes. Smoothed present-day and Neotectonic stress maps (mean SHmax orientation) reveal that plate boundary forces acting on the Africa-Eurasia collisional plates control the long wavelength of the stress field pattern in the Maghreb. The seismotectonic deformations and the upper crustal stress field in the study area are governed by the interplay of the oblique plate convergence (i.e., Africa-Eurasia), lithosphere-mantle interaction, and preexisting tectonic weakness zones.

Keywords: Maghreb, strike-slip fault, seismotectonic, focal mechanism, inversion

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612 A Case Study of the Saudi Arabian Investment Regime

Authors: Atif Alenezi

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The low global oil price poses economic challenges for Saudi Arabia, as oil revenues still make up a great percentage of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). At the end of 2014, the Consultative Assembly considered a report from the Committee on Economic Affairs and Energy which highlights that the economy had not been successfully diversified. There thus exist ample reasons for modernising the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) regime, primarily to achieve and maintain prosperity and facilitate peace in the region. Therefore, this paper aims at identifying specific problems with the existing FDI regime in Saudi Arabia and subsequently some solutions to those problems. Saudi Arabia adopted its first specific legislation in 1956, which imposed significant restrictions on foreign ownership. Since then, Saudi Arabia has modernised its FDI framework with the passing of the Foreign Capital Investment Act 1979 and the Foreign Investment Law2000 and the accompanying Executive Rules 2000 and the recently adopted Implementing Regulations 2014.Nonetheless, the legislative provisions contain various gaps and the failure to address these gaps creates risks and uncertainty for investors. For instance, the important topic of mergers and acquisitions has not been addressed in the Foreign Investment Law 2000. The circumstances in which expropriation can be considered to be in the public interest have not been defined. Moreover, Saudi Arabia has not entered into many bilateral investment treaties (BITs). This has an effect on the investment climate, as foreign investors are not afforded typical rights. An analysis of the BITs which have been entered into reveals that the national treatment standard and stabilisation, umbrella or renegotiation provisions have not been included. This is problematic since the 2000 Act does not spell out the applicable standard in accordance with which foreign investors should be treated. Moreover, the most-favoured-nation (MFN) or fair and equitable treatment (FET) standards have not been put on a statutory footing. Whilst the Arbitration Act 2012 permits that investment disputes can be internationalised, restrictions have been retained. The effectiveness of international arbitration is further undermined because Saudi Arabia does not enforce non-domestic arbitral awards which contravene public policy. Furthermore, the reservation to the Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes allows Saudi Arabia to exclude petroleum and sovereign disputes. Interviews with foreign investors, who operate in Saudi Arabia highlight additional issues. Saudi Arabia ought not to procrastinate far-reaching structural reforms.

Keywords: FDI, Saudi, BITs, law

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611 Ethnicity, Issue Voting, and Regime Change in the Gambia: the Reason Yahya Jammeh Lost the 2016 Presidential Election

Authors: Alieu B. Sanneh

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In a country where there are minimal economic opportunities, with a declining living condition of the people, do electorates in Africa’s newest democracy reevaluate their support for a candidate based on issues or ethnicity. In the 2016 presidential election in The Gambia, the opposition coalition party had successfully managed to overthrow an authoritarian government, which has ruled the country for 22 years. The results of the election are not only surprising but also presented an interesting theoretical puzzle that raises important this paper is going to address. An important fact is that dictator had organized an election which he lost, and this paper will assess the voting decisions of Gambian electorates to determine whether they were more concerned with issues such as status of the economy, human rights abuses by the Jammeh administration or the ethnicities of the contestants who took part in the election. This study uses field survey data, conducted six months after this historic vote, to evaluate the opinion of the electorates. Contrary to the notion of the prevalence of ethnic voting in African elections, an argument made by many scholars, this study concluded that Gambian voters were more concerned with issues such as the economy and human rights under the Jammeh administration than they were for the ethnicities of the candidates. The election was issue-based, and that Jammeh lost the polls due to the concern the electorate had on human rights abuses by his government.

Keywords: election, issue, ethnicity, regime change

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610 The Response of Mammal Populations to Abrupt Changes in Fire Regimes in Montane Landscapes of South-Eastern Australia

Authors: Jeremy Johnson, Craig Nitschke, Luke Kelly

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Fire regimes, climate and topographic gradients interact to influence ecosystem structure and function across fire-prone, montane landscapes worldwide. Biota have developed a range of adaptations to historic fire regime thresholds, which allow them to persist in these environments. In south-eastern Australia, a signal of fire regime changes is emerging across these landscapes, and anthropogenic climate change is likely to be one of the main drivers of an increase in burnt area and more frequent wildfire over the last 25 years. This shift has the potential to modify vegetation structure and composition at broad scales, which may lead to landscape patterns to which biota are not adapted, increasing the likelihood of local extirpation of some mammal species. This study aimed to address concerns related to the influence of abrupt changes in fire regimes on mammal populations in montane landscapes. It first examined the impact of climate, topography, and vegetation on fire patterns and then explored the consequences of these changes on mammal populations and their habitats. Field studies were undertaken across diverse vegetation, fire severity and fire frequency gradients, utilising camera trapping and passive acoustic monitoring methodologies and the collection of fine-scale vegetation data. Results show that drought is a primary contributor to fire regime shifts at the landscape scale, while topographic factors have a variable influence on wildfire occurrence at finer scales. Frequent, high severity wildfire influenced forest structure and composition at broad spatial scales, and at fine scales, it reduced occurrence of hollow-bearing trees and promoted coarse woody debris. Mammals responded differently to shifts in forest structure and composition depending on their habitat requirements. This study highlights the complex interplay between fire regimes, environmental gradients, and biotic adaptations across temporal and spatial scales. It emphasizes the importance of understanding complex interactions to effectively manage fire-prone ecosystems in the face of climate change.

Keywords: fire, ecology, biodiversity, landscape ecology

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609 Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Bacterioplankton in the Upper Part of Taktakorpu Water Complex

Authors: Fidan Z. Aliyeva

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In the presented article, the formation of the microbiological regime in the Takhtakorpu water complex, as well as spatial-temporal changes in the quantitative indicators of bacterioplankton, were studied. Taktakorpu water complex was built as a continuation of the reconstruction and expansion project of the Samur-Absheron irrigation system in Shabran on the northeastern slope of our republic. It should be noted that with the implementation of the project, the water supply of up to 150 thousand ha of useful land in the northern region has been improved, and the drinking, technical, and irrigation water needs of the population of Baku, Sumgayit and also the Absheron Peninsula, and industrial and agricultural areas, joining the agricultural circulation of new soil areas, Takhtakorpu reservoir with a volume of 238.4 million m³, connected with them -Valvalachay- Takhtakorpu and Takhtakorpu-Jeyranbatan canals have been created, conditions have been created to increase the resources of the Jeyranbatan reservoir. Special attention is paid to the study of saprophytic bacteria in order to determine the development dynamics and biochemical activity of the microbiological regime in the Takhtakorpu Water Complex, which is of great strategic importance for our republic, to evaluate changes under the influence of anthropogenic factors, as well as to evaluate the properties of self-cleaning, mineralization features of organic substances of allochthon and autochthonous origin. One of the main goals of our research is to determine the main structural indicators of bacterioplankton in the upper part of Takhtakorpu water complex in the first three stations and analyzing their quantitative values in a certain time aspect.

Keywords: water, irrigation, sewage, wastewater

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608 The Attitude of Egyptian Nubian University Students towards Arabic and Nubian Languages

Authors: Sanaa Abouras

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This research investigates the attitude of Egyptian Nubian University students towards the Arabic and the two Nubian languages, Nobiin, and Kenuzi-Dongola. The Nubian languages are called by Egyptian Nubians, Fadijja/Fadicca and Kenzi, respectively. Nubians are people who live in the Nubia area which lies between Egypt’s southern borders with the northern part of Sudan. Nubia is divided into two parts - one under the Egyptian regime, and the other under the Sudanese regime. The number of participants used in the study was forty - half male and half female. Twenty of these participants live in the Nubian region and are enrolled at the South Valley University in Aswan, Egypt. This number was compared with an additional twenty Egyptian-Nubian university students who live outside the Nubian region and attend various Egyptian universities located in Alexandria and Cairo. The hypothesis of this study is that Egyptian Nubian University students tend to have positive attitudes toward Arabic and also the Nubian languages. This research is a qualitative and partially quantitative one. Observations, questionnaires, and interviews were used to collect data in order to explore the following: (1) the language students prefer to speak at home and in public and if language preferences are gender-related, (2) the factors that influence the Egyptian Nubian university students' attitudes towards Arabic and Nubian languages, and (3) a look at the future of these ethnic Nubian languages. Results that answered the main question on the attitude of Egyptian Nubian University students toward Arabic and Nubian languages revealed that students who live inside and outside the Nubian region tend to have positive attitudes towards both the Arabic and the Nubian languages.

Keywords: language attitude, minority, Arabic language, Nubian Language

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607 Hydrological Modeling and Climate Change Impact Assessment Using HBV Model, A Case Study of Karnali River Basin of Nepal

Authors: Sagar Shiwakoti, Narendra Man Shakya

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The lumped conceptual hydrological model HBV is applied to the Karnali River Basin to estimate runoff at several gauging stations and to analyze the changes in catchment hydrology and future flood magnitude due to climate change. The performance of the model is analyzed to assess its suitability to simulate streamflow in snow fed mountainous catchments. Due to the structural complexity, the model shows difficulties in modeling low and high flows accurately at the same time. It is observed that the low flows were generally underestimated and the peaks were correctly estimated except for some sharp peaks due to isolated precipitation events. In this study, attempt has been made to evaluate the importance of snow melt discharge in the runoff regime of the basin. Quantification of contribution of snowmelt to annual, summer and winter runoff has been done. The contribution is highest at the beginning of the hot months as the accumulated snow begins to melt. Examination of this contribution under conditions of increased temperatures indicate that global warming leading to increase in average basin temperature will significantly lead to higher contributions to runoff from snowmelt. Forcing the model with the output of HadCM3 GCM and the A1B scenario downscaled to the station level show significant changes to catchment hydrology in the 2040s. It is observed that the increase in runoff is most extreme in June - July. A shift in the hydrological regime is also observed.

Keywords: hydrological modeling, HBV light, rainfall runoff modeling, snow melt, climate change

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606 Modelling Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility with Markov-Switching Regression, Single Regime GARCH and Markov-Switching GARCH Models: Empirical Evidence from South Africa

Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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605 Numerical Simulation of Turbulent Flow around Two Cam Shaped Cylinders in Tandem Arrangement

Authors: Arash Mir Abdolah Lavasani, M. Ebrahimisabet

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In this paper, the 2-D unsteady viscous flow around two cam shaped cylinders in tandem arrangement is numerically simulated in order to study the characteristics of the flow in turbulent regimes. The investigation covers the effects of high subcritical and supercritical Reynolds numbers and L/D ratio on total drag coefficient. The equivalent diameter of cylinders is 27.6 mm The space between center to center of two cam shaped cylinders is define as longitudinal pitch ratio and it varies in range of 1.5 < L/D < 6. Reynolds number base on equivalent circular cylinder varies in range of 27×103 < Re < 166×103 Results show that drag coefficient of both cylinders depends on pitch ratio. However drag coefficient of downstream cylinder is more dependent on the pitch ratio.

Keywords: cam shaped, tandem, numerical, drag coefficient, turbulent

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604 India and Space Insurance Policy: An Analytical Insight

Authors: Shreyas Jayasimha, Suneel Anand Sundharesan, Rohan Tigadi

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In the recent past, the United States of America and Russia were the only two dominant players in the field of space exploration and had a virtual monopoly in the field of space and technology. However, this has changed over the past few years. Many other nation states such as India, China, and the UK have made significant progress in this field. Amongst these nations, the growth and development of the Indian space program have been nothing short of a miracle. Starting recently, India has successfully launched a series of satellites including its much acclaimed Mangalyaan mission, which placed a satellite in Mars’ orbit. The fact that India was able to attain this feat in its attempt demonstrates the enormous growth potential and promise that the Indian space program holds for the coming years. However, unlike other space-faring nations, India does not have a comprehensive and consolidated space insurance policy. In this regard, it is pertinent to note that, the costs and risks involved in a administering a space program are enormous. Therefore, in the absence of a comprehensive space insurance policy, any losses from an unsuccessful will have to be borne by the state exchequer. Thus, in order to ensure that Indian space program continues on its upward trajectory, the Indian establishment should seriously consider formulating a comprehensive insurance policy. This paper intends to analyze the international best practices followed by other space-faring nations in relation to space insurance policy. Thereafter, the authors seek to examine the current regime in India relating to space insurance policy. Finally, the authors will conclude by providing a series of recommendations regarding the essential elements that should be part of any Indian space insurance policy regime.

Keywords: India, space insurance policy, space law, Indian space research organization

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603 Growth and Yield Assessment of Two Types of Sorghum-Sudangrass Hybrids as Affected by Deficit Irrigation

Authors: A. Abbas Khalaf, L. Issazadeh, Z. Arif Abdullah, J. Hassanpour

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In order to evaluate the growth and yield properties of two Sorghum-Sudangrass hybrids under different irrigation levels, an investigation was done in the experiment site of Collage of Agriculture, University of Duhok, Kurdistan region of Iraq (36°5´38 N, 42°52´02 E) in the years 2015-16. The experiment was conducted under Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with three replications, which main factor was irrigation treatments (I100, I75 and I50) according to evaporation pan class A and type of Sorghum-Sudangrass hybrids (KH12SU9001, G1) and (KH12SU9002, G2) were factors of subplots. The parameters studied were: plant height (cm), number of green leaves per plant; leaf area (m2/m2), stem thickness (mm), percent of protein, fresh and dry biomass (ton.ha-1) and also crop water productivity. The results of variance analysis showed that KH12SU9001 variety had more amount of leaf area, percent of protein, fresh and dry biomass yield in comparison to KH12SU9002 variety. By comparing effects of irrigation levels on vegetative growth and yield properties, results showed that amount of plant height, fresh and dry biomass weight was decreased by decreasing irrigation level from full irrigation regime to 5 o% of irrigation level. Also, results of crop water productivity (CWP) indicated that improvement in quantity of irrigation would impact fresh and dry biomass yield significantly. Full irrigation regime was recorded the highest level of CWP (1.28-1.29 kg.m-3).

Keywords: deficit irrigation, growth, sorghum-sudangrass hybrid, yield

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602 Role of Inherited Structures during Inversion Tectonics: An Example from Tunisia, North Africa

Authors: Aymen Arfaoui, Abdelkader Soumaya, Ali Kadri, Noureddine Ben Ayed

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The Tunisian dorsal backland is located on the Eastern Atlas side of the Maghrebides (North Africa). The analysis of collected field data in the Rouas and Ruissate mountains area allowed us to develop new interpretations for its structural framework. Our kinematic analysis of fault-slip data reveals the presence of an extensional tectonic regime with NE-SW Shmin, characterizing the Mesozoic times. In addition, geophysical data shows that the synsedimentary normal faulting is accompanied by thickness variations of sedimentary sequences and Triassic salt movements. Then, after the Eurasia-Africa plate’s convergence during the Eocene, compressive tectonic deformations affected and reactivated the inherited NW-SE and N-S trending normal faults as dextral strike-slip and reverse faults, respectively. This tectonic inversion, with compression to the transpressional tectonic regime and NW-SE SHmax, continued during the successive shortening phases of the upper Miocene and Quaternary. The geometry of the Rouas and Ruissate belt is expressed as a fault propagation fold, affecting Jurassic and Cretaceous deposits. The Triassic evaporates constitute the decollement levels, facilitating the detachment and deformation of the sedimentary cover. The backland of this thrust belt is defined by NNE-SSW trending imbrication features that are controlled by a basement N-S fault.

Keywords: Tunisian dorsal backland, fault slip data; synsedimentary faults, tectonic inversion, decollement level, fault propagation fold

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601 Heat Transfer Dependent Vortex Shedding of Thermo-Viscous Shear-Thinning Fluids

Authors: Markus Rütten, Olaf Wünsch

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Non-Newtonian fluid properties can change the flow behaviour significantly, its prediction is more difficult when thermal effects come into play. Hence, the focal point of this work is the wake flow behind a heated circular cylinder in the laminar vortex shedding regime for thermo-viscous shear thinning fluids. In the case of isothermal flows of Newtonian fluids the vortex shedding regime is characterised by a distinct Reynolds number and an associated Strouhal number. In the case of thermo-viscous shear thinning fluids the flow regime can significantly change in dependence of the temperature of the viscous wall of the cylinder. The Reynolds number alters locally and, consequentially, the Strouhal number globally. In the present CFD study the temperature dependence of the Reynolds and Strouhal number is investigated for the flow of a Carreau fluid around a heated cylinder. The temperature dependence of the fluid viscosity has been modelled by applying the standard Williams-Landel-Ferry (WLF) equation. In the present simulation campaign thermal boundary conditions have been varied over a wide range in order to derive a relation between dimensionless heat transfer, Reynolds and Strouhal number. Together with the shear thinning due to the high shear rates close to the cylinder wall this leads to a significant decrease of viscosity of three orders of magnitude in the nearfield of the cylinder and a reduction of two orders of magnitude in the wake field. Yet the shear thinning effect is able to change the flow topology: a complex K´arm´an vortex street occurs, also revealing distinct characteristic frequencies associated with the dominant and sub-dominant vortices. Heating up the cylinder wall leads to a delayed flow separation and narrower wake flow, giving lesser space for the sequence of counter-rotating vortices. This spatial limitation does not only reduce the amplitude of the oscillating wake flow it also shifts the dominant frequency to higher frequencies, furthermore it damps higher harmonics. Eventually the locally heated wake flow smears out. Eventually, the CFD simulation results of the systematically varied thermal flow parameter study have been used to describe a relation for the main characteristic order parameters.

Keywords: heat transfer, thermo-viscous fluids, shear thinning, vortex shedding

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600 The Exchange Rate Exposure of Exporting and Domestic Firms in Central and Eastern European Countries Controlling for Regime Effect and Recent Crisis

Authors: Raheel Asif, Michael Frommel

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This paper focuses on analyzing the exchange rate exposure of exporting & domestic firms in (the so far rarely addressed) largest Eastern European transition economies, i.e., Russia and the three EU accession countries, Poland, Hungary, and Czech Republic (CEEC-3). It also controls for possible effects of different exchange rate regimes, Great Financial crisis (2007-08), Russian Financial crisis (2014-15), the formation of EU & turn of year effect. Substantially improving the results from the existing literature on these transition economies, we find for more than 51% of our sample firms in CEEC-3 countries and 29% in Russia shows a significant exchange rate exposure. However, the magnitude and direction of firms’ exposure depends on the particular bilateral exchange rate and differs between CEEC-3 and Russia. We find that share price increases with an appreciation of the domestic currency against the EURO and US Dollar (USD) in CEEC-3; however, the effect is more pronounced for EURO as expected. Whereas, for Russian firms share price increases with a depreciation of the domestic currency against the USD only. Those differences may result from a differing dominance of exposure channels in the respective economies, such as the country-specific export structure, competitiveness channels, and dependence on foreign debt. Finally, the switch from a pegged to a flexible exchange rate regime appears to have a less pronounced effect for the exchange rate exposure of firms in all countries except for USD in Poland and Russia.

Keywords: exchange rate exposure, transition economies, central and eastern Europe, international finance

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599 Legal Implications of a Single African Air Transport Market on Airlines and Passengers in Nigeria

Authors: Adejoke Omowumi Adediran

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The commitment of African states to liberalise civil aviation in Africa through the implementation of the Yamoussoukro Decision of 1999 was reiterated in 2015 at the African Union Assembly meeting. A declaration was made by African Heads of government at the meeting to ensure the immediate implementation of the decision towards the establishment of a Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) by 2017. A SAATM will imply among others, a removal of all commercial restrictions for African airlines in Africa; access to any route in Africa by African airlines without any required permit or authorisation; and a common set of regulations for airlines in African member states. As the envisioned 2017 date for launching the SAATM could not be met, a new date of January 2018 has been set. The lack of political will by African States, however, remains a prominent challenge to the realisation of the SAATM. As at June 2017, only twenty-one states had signed the commitment to actualise the decision creating the SAATM. In actualisation of the SAATM, a regulatory framework has been established to efficiently manage the new African airline industry, and regulatory texts have been adopted as part of the legal regime. This legal regime is to regulate both interstate and domestic operations. Airlines in Nigeria are currently faced with certain challenges which ultimately affect their effectiveness and passengers as well do not enjoy utmost customer satisfaction with services rendered by the airlines. Although Nigeria has demonstrated support for the SAATM since 2015, as Nigeria alongside ten other states, signed the initial commitment, whether or not SAATM will eventually be beneficial to airlines and passengers has become an issue in the light of the challenges of the Nigerian airline industry. Remarkably, the benefit of the SAATM is to a large extent ultimately determined by its legal framework. Using doctrinal research, this paper examines the legal implications of the SAATM on airlines and passengers in Nigeria. This paper analyses the legal framework of SAATM and juxtaposes this with the particular issues affecting airlines and passengers in Nigeria such as financial difficulties on the part of airlines and consumer protection as regards passengers. Among others, it can be asserted that the legal regime affords an opportunity for business expansion and creates a fair environment for competition. This is beneficial not only to the airlines but to passengers as well. In addition, in the interest of passengers, consumer rights are prescribed, and the regulations also cater for situations where airlines interrupt their services, as losses arising from these situations will be mitigated. There is indeed no doubt that the SAATM will be of great utility to both airlines and passengers in Nigeria.

Keywords: airlines, civil aviation, competition, consumer protection, passengers, single African air transport market, yamoussoukro decision

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598 The Effects of North Sea Caspian Pattern Index on the Temperature and Precipitation Regime in the Aegean Region of Turkey

Authors: Cenk Sezen, Turgay Partal

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North Sea Caspian Pattern Index (NCP) refers to an atmospheric teleconnection between the North Sea and North Caspian at the 500 hPa geopotential height level. The aim of this study is to search for effects of NCP on annual and seasonal mean temperature and also annual and seasonal precipitation totals in the Aegean region of Turkey. The study contains the data that consist of 46 years obtained from nine meteorological stations. To determine the relationship between NCP and the climatic parameters, firstly the Pearson correlation coefficient method was utilized. According to the results of the analysis, most of the stations in the region have a high negative correlation NCPI in all seasons, especially in the winter season in terms of annual and seasonal mean temperature (statistically at significant at the 90% level). Besides, high negative correlation values between NCPI and precipitation totals are observed during the winter season at the most of stations. Furthermore, the NCPI values were divided into two group as NCPI(-) and NCPI(+), and then mean temperature and precipitation total values, which are grouped according to the NCP(-) and NCP(+) phases, were determined as annual and seasonal. During the NCPI(-), higher mean temperature values are observed in all of seasons, particularly in the winter season compared to the mean temperature values under effect of NCP(+). Similarly, during the NCPI(-) in winter season precipitation total values have higher than the precipitation total values under the effect of NCP(+); however, in other seasons there no substantial changes were observed between the precipitation total values. As a result of this study, significant proof is obtained with regards to the influences of NCP on the temperature and precipitation regime in the Aegean region of Turkey.

Keywords: Aegean region, NCPI, precipitation, temperature

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597 Devulcanization of Waste Rubber Using Thermomechanical Method Combined with Supercritical CO₂

Authors: L. Asaro, M. Gratton, S. Seghar, N. Poirot, N. Ait Hocine

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Rubber waste disposal is an environmental problem. Particularly, many researches are centered in the management of discarded tires. In spite of all different ways of handling used tires, the most common is to deposit them in a landfill, creating a stock of tires. These stocks can cause fire danger and provide ambient for rodents, mosquitoes and other pests, causing health hazards and environmental problems. Because of the three-dimensional structure of the rubbers and their specific composition that include several additives, their recycling is a current technological challenge. The technique which can break down the crosslink bonds in the rubber is called devulcanization. Strictly, devulcanization can be defined as a process where poly-, di-, and mono-sulfidic bonds, formed during vulcanization, are totally or partially broken. In the recent years, super critical carbon dioxide (scCO₂) was proposed as a green devulcanization atmosphere. This is because it is chemically inactive, nontoxic, nonflammable and inexpensive. Its critical point can be easily reached (31.1 °C and 7.38 MPa), and residual scCO₂ in the devulcanized rubber can be easily and rapidly removed by releasing pressure. In this study thermomechanical devulcanization of ground tire rubber (GTR) was performed in a twin screw extruder under diverse operation conditions. Supercritical CO₂ was added in different quantities to promote the devulcanization. Temperature, screw speed and quantity of CO₂ were the parameters that were varied during the process. The devulcanized rubber was characterized by its devulcanization percent and crosslink density by swelling in toluene. Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and Gel permeation chromatography (GPC) were also done, and the results were related with the Mooney viscosity. The results showed that the crosslink density decreases as the extruder temperature and speed increases, and, as expected, the soluble fraction increase with both parameters. The Mooney viscosity of the devulcanized rubber decreases as the extruder temperature increases. The reached values were in good correlation (R= 0.96) with de the soluble fraction. In order to analyze if the devulcanization was caused by main chains or crosslink scission, the Horikx's theory was used. Results showed that all tests fall in the curve that corresponds to the sulfur bond scission, which indicates that the devulcanization has successfully happened without degradation of the rubber. In the spectra obtained by FTIR, it was observed that none of the characteristic peaks of the GTR were modified by the different devulcanization conditions. This was expected, because due to the low sulfur content (~1.4 phr) and the multiphasic composition of the GTR, it is very difficult to evaluate the devulcanization by this technique. The lowest crosslink density was reached with 1 cm³/min of CO₂, and the power consumed in that process was also near to the minimum. These results encourage us to do further analyses to better understand the effect of the different conditions on the devulcanization process. The analysis is currently extended to monophasic rubbers as ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber (EPDM) and natural rubber (NR).

Keywords: devulcanization, recycling, rubber, waste

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596 The Neoliberal Social-Economic Development and Values in the Baltic States

Authors: Daiva Skuciene

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The Baltic States turned to free market and capitalism after independency. The new socioeconomic system, democracy and priorities about the welfare of citizens formed. The researches show that Baltic states choose the neoliberal development. Related to this neoliberal path, a few questions arouse: how do people evaluate the results of such policy and socioeconomic development? What are their priorities? And what are the values of the Baltic societies that support neoliberal policy? The purpose of this research – to analyze the socioeconomic context and the priorities and the values of the Baltics societies related to neoliberal regime. The main objectives are: firstly, to analyze the neoliberal socioeconomic features and results; secondly, to analyze people opinions and priorities about the results of neoliberal development; thirdly, to analyze the values of the Baltic societies related to the neoliberal policy. For the implementation of the purpose and objectives, the comparative analyses among European countries are used. The neoliberal regime was defined through two indicators: the taxes on capital income and expenditures on social protection. The socioeconomic outcomes of neoliberal welfare regime are defined through the Gini inequality and at risk of the poverty rate. For this analysis, the data of 2002-2013 of Eurostat were used. For the analyses of opinion about inequality and preferences on society, people want to live in, the preferences for distribution between capital and wages in enterprise data of Eurobarometer in 2010-2014 and the data of representative survey in the Baltic States in 2016 were used. The justice variable was selected as a variable reflecting the evaluation of socioeconomic context and analyzed using data of Eurobarometer 2006-2015. For the analyses of values were selected: solidarity, equality, and individual responsibility. The solidarity, equality was analyzed using data of Eurobarometer 2006-2015. The value “individual responsibility” was examined by opinions about reasons of inequality and poverty. The survey of population in the Baltic States in 2016 and data of Eurobarometer were used for this aim. The data are ranged in descending order for understanding the position of opinion of people in the Baltic States among European countries. The dynamics of indicators is also provided to examine stability of values. The main findings of the research are that people in the Baltics are dissatisfied with the results of the neoliberal socioeconomic development, they have priorities for equality and justice, but they have internalized the main neoliberal narrative- individual responsibility. The impact of socioeconomic context on values is huge, resulting in a change in quite stable opinions and values during the period of the financial crisis.

Keywords: neoliberal, inequality and poverty, solidarity, individual responsibility

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595 An Assessment into Impact of Regional Conflicts upon Socio-Political Sustainability in Pakistan

Authors: Syed Toqueer Akhter, Muhammad Muzaffar Abbas

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Conflicts in Pakistan are a result of a configuration of factors, which are directly related to the system of the state, the unstable regional setting, and the geo-strategic location of Pakistan at large. This paper examines the impact of regional conflict onto the socio-political sustainability of Pakistan. The magnitude of the spillover from a conflicted region is similar in size of the equivalent increase in domestic conflict. Pakistan has gone at war three times with India; the border with India is named as the tensest borderlines of the world. Disagreements with India and lack of dispute settlement mechanisms have negatively effected the peace in the region, influx of illegal weapons and refugees from Afghanistan as an outcome of 9/11 incidence, have exasperated the criticality of levels of internal conflict in Pakistan. Our empirical findings are based on the data collected on regional conflict levels, regional trade, global trade, comparative defence capabilities of the region in contrast to Pakistan and the government regime (Autocratic, Democratic) over 1972-2007. It has been proposed in this paper that the intent of domestic conflict is associated with the conflict in the region, regional trade, global trade and the government regime of Pakistan. The estimated model (OLS) implies that domestic conflict is effected positively and significantly with long term impact of conflict in the region. Also, if defence capabilities of the region are better than that of Pakistan it effects domestic conflict positively and significantly. Conflict in neighbouring countries are found as a source of domestic conflict in Pakistan, whereas the regional trade as well as type of government regimes in Pakistan lowered the intensity of domestic conflict significantly, while globalized trade imply risk of domestic conflict to be reduced but not significantly.

Keywords: conflict, regional trade, socio-politcal instability

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