Search results for: storm%20surge
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 185

Search results for: storm%20surge

65 Phonology and Syntax of Article Incorporation in Mauritian Creole: Evidence from Bantou Languages

Authors: Emmanuel Nikiema

Abstract:

This paper examines article incorporation in Mauritian Creole, a French Lexifier Creole which exhibits three forms of article incorporation as illustrated in (1-3). While various analyses of article incorporation have been proposed in the literature, fewer studies have explored the motivation of this widespread phenomenon in Mauritian Creole (MC) as opposed to other French Lexifier Creoles spoken in the Caribbean. For example, Mauritian Creole exhibits 4 times more CV incorporation than Haitian Creole, and 40 times more than Reunion Creole. (1) Consonantal type (C): loraz ‘thunder storm’, lete ‘summer’, zwazo ‘bird’, nide ‘idea’. (2) Syllabic type (CV): lapo ‘skin’, liku ‘neck’, ledo ‘back’, leker ‘heart’, diber ‘butter’. (3) Bi-consonantal (CVC): delo ‘water’, dizef ‘egg’, lizye ‘eye’, dilwil ‘oil’. The goal of this study is twofold: 1) uncover the rules governing the three types of article incorporation in MC, and 2) account for its remarkable occurrence in MC as opposed to its quasi-absence in Reunion Creole. We have collected a corpus of over 700 cases and organized it into three categories (C; CV and CVC). For example, there are 471 examples of CV incorporation in MC against 112 in Haitian Creole and only 12 in Reunion Creole. Two questions can be raised: 1) what is the motivation and distribution of the three types of incorporation in MC, and 2) how can one account for the high volume of incorporation in MC as opposed to its quasi-absence in Reunion Creole? We suggest that article incorporation in MC is related to the structure of nouns in Bantou languages. While previous authors have largely used population settlement data in the colonies during the Creole formation period to justify their analyses, we propose an account based on the syntactic structure of Bantou nouns. This analysis will shed light on the contribution of African languages to the formation of MC, and on to why MC has exhibited more article incorporation cases than any other French Lexifier Creole.

Keywords: article incorporation, creole languages, description, phonology

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64 Determination of the Runoff Coefficient in Urban Regions, an Example from Haifa, Israel

Authors: Ayal Siegel, Moshe Inbar, Amatzya Peled

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This study examined the characteristic runoff coefficient in different urban areas. The main area studied is located in the city of Haifa, northern Israel. Haifa spreads out eastward from the Mediterranean seacoast to the top of the Carmel Mountain range with an elevation of 300 m. above sea level. For this research project, four watersheds were chosen, each characterizing a different part of the city; 1) Upper Hadar, a spacious suburb on the upper mountain side; 2) Qiryat Eliezer, a crowded suburb on a level plane of the watershed; 3) Technion, a large technical research university which is located halfway between the top of the mountain range and the coast line. 4) Keret, a remote suburb, on the southwestern outskirts of Haifa. In all of the watersheds found suitable, instruments were installed to continuously measure the water level flowing in the channels. Three rainfall gauges scattered in the study area complete the hydrological requirements for this research project. The runoff coefficient C in peak discharge events was determined by the Rational Formula. The main research finding is the significant relationship between the intensity of rainfall, and the impervious area which is connected to the drainage system of the watershed. For less intense rainfall, the full potential of the connected impervious area will not be exploited. As a result, the runoff coefficient value decreases as do the peak discharge rate and the runoff yield from the storm event. The research results will enable application to other areas by means of hydrological model to be be set up on GIS software that will make it possible to estimate the runoff coefficient of any given city watershed.

Keywords: runoff coefficient, rational method, time of concentration, connected impervious area.

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63 Effectiveness of Conflict Resolution Board Game: An Experimental Research

Authors: Safa Abdussalam

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Adolescence is a period of storm and stress. It is a transitional period. Adolescents undergo a lot of changes physically, emotionally and mentally during adolescence. Physical changes include puberty, sexual maturation, changes in height, weight, hormonal changes, changes in body image, changes in brain and in sexuality. Changes also occur in their cognition. According to Piaget’s theory, adolescent enter formal operational stage and engage in hypothetical-deductive reasoning. Main characteristic of adolescent cognition is adolescent egocentrism: imaginary audience and personal fable. One of the most common struggle majority of adolescents face is the conflict between parent and adolescent. They often complain that parents do not understand them/their situation. Common topics of conflict include identity crisis, issues with personal freedom and issues over personal preferences. Conflict resolution refers to solving conflicts in a healthy way. There is a lack of resources in dealing with such conflicts creatively. To deal with parent-adolescent conflict, a conflict resolution board game is designed. The board game consists of tokens, dice, 10 conflict situation cards and two conflict resolution sheets. Purpose of using a board game is to help adolescents understand the conflict situations and resolutions in a fun, creative and interactive way. It can be used for self-help or even therapists can use it in their clinical practice. The study aims to assess the effectiveness of the board game in dealing with the conflict. Experimental design will be used. Samples include 15 adolescents belonging to age group 10-19. Samples will be divided into two groups: Experimental group and control group. A pre-test and post-test will be conducted. The board game will be demonstrated to the experimental group. Results will be obtained after statistical analysis. Board games are a great way to be used with children and adolescents.

Keywords: adolescent, adolescence, parent-child conflict, conflict resolution

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62 Study on the Effect of Different Media on Green Roof Water Retention

Authors: Chen Zhi-Wei, Hsieh Wei-Fang

Abstract:

Taiwan annual rainfall is global average of 2.5 times, plus city excessive development, green constantly to reduced, instead of is big area of artificial base disc, makes Taiwan rainy season during occurred of storm cannot timely of emissions, led to flood constantly, and rain also cannot was retained again using, led to city hydrological balance suffered damage, and to Regulation city of by brings of negative effect, increased green covered rate became most effective of method, and city land limited, so roof green gradually became a alternative program. Green roofs have become one of the Central and local government policy initiatives for urban development, in foreign countries, such as the United States, and Japan, and Singapore etc. Development of roof greening as an important policy, has become a trend of the times. In recent years, many experts and scholars are also on the roof greening all aspects of research, mostly for green roof for the environmental impact of benefits, such as: carbon reduction, cooling, thermostat, but research on the benefits of green roofs under water cut but it is rare. Therefore, this research literature from green roof in to view and analyze what kind of medium suitable for roof greening and use of green base plate combination simulated green roof structure, via different proportions of the medium with water retention plate and drainage board, experiment with different planting base plate combination of water conservation performance. Research will want to test the effect of roof planting base mix, promotion of relevant departments and agencies in future implementation of green roofs, prompted the development of green roofs, which in the end Taiwan achieve sustainable development of the urban environment help.

Keywords: thin-layer roof greening and planting medium, water efficiency

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61 Decision Support Tool for Selecting Appropriate Sustainable Rainwater Harvesting Based System in Ibadan, Nigeria

Authors: Omolara Lade, David Oloke

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The approach to water management worldwide is currently in transition, with a shift from centralised infrastructures to greater consideration of decentralised technologies, such as rainwater harvesting (RWH). However, in Nigeria, implementation of sustainable water management, such as RWH systems, is inefficient and social, environmental and technical barriers, concerns and knowledge gaps exist, which currently restrict its widespread utilisation. This inefficiency contributes to water scarcity, water-borne diseases, and loss of lives and property due to flooding. Meanwhile, several RWH technologies have been developed to improve SWM through both demand and storm-water management. Such technologies involve the use of reinforced concrete cement (RCC) storage tanks, surface water reservoirs and ground-water recharge pits as storage systems. A framework was developed to assess the significance and extent of water management problems, match the problems with existing RWH-based solutions and develop a robust ready-to-use decision support tool that can quantify the costs and benefits of implementing several RWH-based storage systems. The methodology adopted was the mixed method approach, involving a detailed literature review, followed by a questionnaire survey of household respondents, Nigerian Architects and Civil Engineers and focus group discussion with stakeholders. 18 selection attributes have been defined and three alternatives have been identified in this research. The questionnaires were analysed using SPSS, excel and selected statistical methods to derive weightings of the attributes for the tool. Following this, three case studies were modelled using RainCycle software. From the results, the MDA model chose RCC tank as the most appropriate storage system for RWH.

Keywords: rainwater harvesting, modelling, hydraulic assessment, whole life cost, decision support system

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60 Climate Change and Its Impacts: The Case of Coastal Fishing Communities of the Meghna River in South-Central Bangladesh

Authors: Md. Royhanur Islam, Thomas Cansse, Md. Sahidul Islam, Atiqur Rahman Sunny

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The geographical location of Bangladesh makes it one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Climate-induced phenomena mainly affect the south-central region of Bangladesh (Laxmipur district) where they have begun to occur more frequently. The aim of the study was to identify the hydro-climatic factors that lead to weather-related disasters in the coastal areas and analyse the consequences of these factors on coastal livelihoods, with possible adaptation options using participatory rural appraisal (PRA) tools. The present study showed several disasters such as land erosion, depressions and cyclones, coastal flooding, storm surge, and precipitation. The frequency of these disasters is of a noticeable rate. Surveys have also discovered that land erosion is ongoing. Tidal water is being introduced directly into the mainland, and as a result of the salt intrusion, production capacity is declining. The coastal belt is an important area for fishing activities, but due to changed fishing times and a lack of Alternative Income Generating Activities (AIGAs), people have been forced to search for alternative livelihood options by taking both short-term and long-term adaptation options. Therefore, in order to increase awareness and minimize the losses, vulnerable communities must be fully incorporated into disaster response strategies. The government as well as national and international donor organizations should come forward and resolve the present situation of these vulnerable groups since otherwise, they will have to endure endless and miserable suffering due to the effects of climate change ahead in their lives.

Keywords: adaptation, community, fishery development, livelihood

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59 Impact of Geomagnetic Variation over Sub-Auroral Ionospheric Region during High Solar Activity Year 2014

Authors: Arun Kumar Singh, Rupesh M. Das, Shailendra Saini

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The present work is an attempt to evaluate the sub-auroral ionospheric behavior under changing space weather conditions especially during high solar activity year 2014. In view of this, the GPS TEC along with Ionosonde data over Indian permanent scientific base 'Maitri', Antarctica (70°46′00″ S, 11°43′56″ E) has been utilized. The results suggested that the nature of ionospheric responses to the geomagnetic disturbances mainly depended upon the status of high latitudinal electro-dynamic processes along with the season of occurrence. Fortunately, in this study, both negative and positive ionospheric impact to the geomagnetic disturbances has been observed in a single year but in different seasons. The study reveals that the combination of equator-ward plasma transportation along with ionospheric compositional changes causes a negative ionospheric impact during summer and equinox seasons. However, the combination of pole-ward contraction of the oval region along with particle precipitation may lead to exhibiting positive ionospheric response during the winter season. Other than this, some Ionosonde based new experimental evidence also provided clear evidence of particle precipitation deep up to the low altitudinal ionospheric heights, i.e., up to E-layer by the sudden and strong appearance of E-layer at 100 km altitudes. The sudden appearance of E-layer along with a decrease in F-layer electron density suggested the dominance of NO⁺ over O⁺ at a considered region under geomagnetic disturbed condition. The strengthening of E-layer is responsible for modification of auroral electrojet and field-aligned current system. The present study provided a good scientific insight on sub-auroral ionospheric to the changing space weather condition.

Keywords: high latitude ionosphere, space weather, geomagnetic storms, sub-storm

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58 Urban Water Logging Adversity: A Case Study on Disruption of Urban Landscape Due to Water Logging Problems and Probable Analytical Solutions for Urban Region on Port City Chittagong, Bangladesh

Authors: Md. Obidul Haque, Abbasi Khanm

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Port city Chittagong, the commercial capital of Bangladesh, is flourished with fascinating topography and climatic context along with basic resources for livelihood; both shape this city and become living archives of its ecologies. Chittagong has been witnessing numerous urban development measures being taken by city development authority, though some of those seem incomplete because of lack of proper planning. Due to this unplanned trail, the blessings of nature have become the reason of sufferings for city dwellers. One of which is the water clogging due to heavy rainfall, seepage, high tide, absence of well-knit underground drainage system, and so on. The problem has reached such an extent that the first monsoon rain is enough to shut down the entire city and causing immense sufferings to livestock, specially most vulnerable groups such as children and office going people. Study shows that total discharge is higher than present drainage capacity of the canals, thus, resulting in overflow, as major channels are clogged up by dumping waste or illegal encroachment, which are supposed to flush out rain water. This paper aims to address natural and manmade causes behind urban water clogging, adverse socio-environmental hazardous effects, possibilities for probable solutions on basis of local people’s experience and rational urban planning and landscape architectural proposals such as facilitating well planned drainage system, along with waste management policies etc. which can be able to intervene in these movements to activate the mighty port city’s unfulfilled potentials.

Keywords: drainage, high-tide, urban storm water logging (USWL), urban planning, water management

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57 The Impact of Dust Storm Events on the Chemical and Toxicological Characteristics of Ambient Particulate Matter in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Authors: Abdulmalik Altuwayjiri, Milad Pirhadi, Mohammed Kalafy, Badr Alharbi, Constantinos Sioutas

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In this study, we investigated the chemical and toxicological characteristics of PM10 in the metropolitan area of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. PM10 samples were collected on quartz and teflon filters during cold (December 2019–April 2020) and warm (May 2020–August 2020) seasons, including dust and non-dust events. The PM10 constituents were chemically analyzed for their metal, inorganic ions, and elemental and organic carbon (EC/OC) contents. Additionally, the PM10 oxidative potential was measured by means of the dithiothreitol (DTT) assay. Our findings revealed that the oxidative potential of the collected ambient PM10 samples was significantly higher than those measured in many urban areas worldwide. The oxidative potential of the collected ambient PM¹⁰⁻ samples was also higher during dust episodes compared to non-dust events, mainly due to higher concentrations of metals during these events. We performed Pearson correlation analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), and multi-linear regression (MLR) to identify the most significant sources contributing to the toxicity of PM¹⁰⁻ The results of the MLR analyses indicated that the major pollution sources contributing to the oxidative potential of ambient PM10 were soil and resuspended dust emissions (identified by Al, K, Fe, and Li) (31%), followed by secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation (traced by SO₄-² and NH+₄) (20%), and industrial activities (identified by Se and La) (19%), and traffic emissions (characterized by EC, Zn, and Cu) (17%). Results from this study underscore the impact of transported dust emissions on the oxidative potential of ambient PM10 in Riyadh and can be helpful in adopting appropriate public health policies regarding detrimental outcomes of exposure to PM₁₀-

Keywords: ambient PM10, oxidative potential, source apportionment, Riyadh, dust episodes

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56 Impact of Urbanization on Natural Drainage Pattern in District of Larkana, Sindh Pakistan

Authors: Sumaira Zafar, Arjumand Zaidi

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During past few years, several floods have adversely affected the areas along lower Indus River. Besides other climate related anomalies, rapidly increasing urbanization and blockage of natural drains due to siltation or encroachments are two other critical causes that may be responsible for these disasters. Due to flat topography of river Indus plains and blockage of natural waterways, drainage of storm water takes time adversely affecting the crop health and soil properties of the area. Government of Sindh is taking a keen interest in revival of natural drainage network in the province and has initiated this work under Sindh Irrigation and Drainage Authority. In this paper, geospatial techniques are used to analyze landuse/land-cover changes of Larkana district over the past three decades (1980-present) and their impact on natural drainage system. Satellite derived Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and topographic sheets (recent and 1950) are used to delineate natural drainage pattern of the district. The urban landuse map developed in this study is further overlaid on drainage line layer to identify the critical areas where the natural floodwater flows are being inhibited by urbanization. Rainfall and flow data are utilized to identify areas of heavy flow, whereas, satellite data including Landsat 7 and Google Earth are used to map previous floods extent and landuse/cover of the study area. Alternatives to natural drainage systems are also suggested wherever possible. The output maps of natural drainage pattern can be used to develop a decision support system for urban planners, Sindh development authorities and flood mitigation and management agencies.

Keywords: geospatial techniques, satellite data, natural drainage, flood, urbanization

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55 Climate Change Impact on Slope Stability: A Study of Slope Drainage Design and Operation

Authors: Elena Mugarza, Stephanie Glendinning, Ross Stirling, Colin Davies

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The effects of climate change and increased rainfall events on UK-based infrastructure are observable, with an increasing number being reported on in the national press. The fatal derailment at Stonehaven in 2020 prompted a wider review of Network Rail-owned earthworks assets. The event was indicated by the Rail Accident Investigation Branch (RAIB) to be caused by mis-installed drainage on the adjacent cutting. The slope failure on Snake Pass (public highway A57) was reportedly caused by significant water ingress following numerous storm events and resulted in the road’s closure for several months. This problem is only projected to continue with greater intensity and more prolonged rainfall events forecasted in the future. Subsequently, this project is designed to evaluate effective drainage trench design within infrastructure embankments, considering the capillary barrier phenomenon that may govern their deterioration and resultant failure. Theoretically, the differential between grain sizes of the embankment clays and gravels, customarily used in drainage trenches, would have a limiting effect on infiltration. As such, it is anticipated that the inclusion of an additional material with an intermediate grain size should improve the hydraulic conductivity across the drainage boundary. Multiple drainage designs will be studied using instrumentation within the drain and surrounding clays. Data from the real-world installation at the BIONICS embankment will be collected and compared with laboratory and Finite Element (FE) simulations. This research aims to reduce the risk of infrastructure slope failures by improving the resilience of earthwork drainage and lessening the consequential impact on transportation networks.

Keywords: earthworks, slope drainage, transportation slopes, deterioration, capillary barriers, field study

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54 Facies Analysis and Depositional Environment of Late Cretaceous (Cenomanian) Lidam Formation, South East Sirt Basin, Libya

Authors: Miloud M. Abugares

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This study concentrates on the facies analysis, cyclicity and depositional environment of the Upper Cretaceous (Cenomanian) carbonate ramp deposits of the Lidam Formation. Core description, petrographic analysis data from five wells in Hamid and 3V areas in the SE Sirt Basin, Libya were studied in detail. The Lidam Formation is one of the main oil producing carbonate reservoirs in Southeast Sirt Basin and this study represents one of the key detailed studies of this Formation. In this study, ten main facies have been identified. These facies are; Chicken-Wire Anhydrite Facies, Fine Replacive Dolomite Facies, Bioclastic Sandstone Facies, Laminated Shale Facies, Stromatolitic Laminated Mudstone Facies, Ostracod Bioturbated Wackestone Facies, Bioturbated Mollusc Packstone Facies, Foraminifera Bioclastic Packstone/Grainstone Facies Peloidal Ooidal Packstone/Grainstone Facies and Squamariacean/Coralline Algae Bindstone Facies. These deposits are inferred to have formed in supratidal sabkha, intertidal, semi-open restricted shallow lagoon and higher energy shallow shoal environments. The overall depositional setting is interpreted as have been deposited in inner carbonate ramp deposits. The best reservoir quality is encountered in Peloidal- Ooidal Packstone/Grainstone facies, these facies represents storm - dominated shoal to back shoal deposits and constitute the inner part of carbonate ramp deposits. The succession shows a conspicuous hierarchical cyclicity. Porous shoal and backshoal deposits form during maximum transgression system and early regression hemi-cycle of the Lidam Fm. However; oil producing from shoal and backshoal deposits which only occur in the upper intervals 15 - 20 feet, which forms the large scale transgressive cycle of the Upper Lidam Formation.

Keywords: Lidam Fm. Sirt Basin, Wackestone Facies, petrographic, intertidal

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53 Tree Resistance to Wind Storm: The Effects of Soil Saturation on Tree Anchorage of Young Pinus pinaster

Authors: P. Defossez, J. M. Bonnefond, D. Garrigou, P. Trichet, F. Danjon

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Windstorm damage to European forests has ecological, social and economic consequences of major importance. Most trees during storms are uprooted. While a large amount of work has been done over the last decade on understanding the aerial tree response to turbulent wind flow, much less is known about the root-soil interface, and the impact of soil moisture and root-soil system fatiguing on tree uprooting. Anchorage strength is expected to be reduced by water-logging and heavy rain during storms due to soil strength decrease with soil water content. Our paper is focused on the maritime pine cultivated on sandy soil, as a representative species of the Forêt des Landes, the largest cultivated forest in Europe. This study aims at providing knowledge on the effects of soil saturation on root anchorage. Pulling experiments on trees were performed to characterize the resistance to wind by measuring the critical bending moment (Mc). Pulling tests were performed on 12 maritime pines of 13-years old for two unsaturated soil conditions that represent the soil conditions expected in winter when wind storms occur in France (w=11.46 to 23.34 % gg⁻¹). A magnetic field digitizing technique was used to characterize the three-dimensional architecture of root systems. The soil mechanical properties as function of soil water content were characterized by laboratory mechanical measurements as function of soil water content and soil porosity on remolded samples using direct shear tests at low confining pressure ( < 15 kPa). Remarkably Mc did not depend on w but mainly on the root system morphology. We suggested that the importance of soil water conditions on tree anchorage depends on the tree size. This study gives a new insight on young tree anchorage: roots may sustain by themselves anchorage, whereas adhesion between roots and surrounding soil may be negligible in sandy soil.

Keywords: roots, sandy soil, shear strength, tree anchorage, unsaturated soil

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52 Surface Water Flow of Urban Areas and Sustainable Urban Planning

Authors: Sheetal Sharma

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Urban planning is associated with land transformation from natural areas to modified and developed ones which leads to modification of natural environment. The basic knowledge of relationship between both should be ascertained before proceeding for the development of natural areas. Changes on land surface due to build up pavements, roads and similar land cover, affect surface water flow. There is a gap between urban planning and basic knowledge of hydrological processes which should be known to the planners. The paper aims to identify these variations in surface flow due to urbanization for a temporal scale of 40 years using Storm Water Management Mode (SWMM) and again correlating these findings with the urban planning guidelines in study area along with geological background to find out the suitable combinations of land cover, soil and guidelines. For the purpose of identifying the changes in surface flows, 19 catchments were identified with different geology and growth in 40 years facing different ground water levels fluctuations. The increasing built up, varying surface runoff are studied using Arc GIS and SWMM modeling, regression analysis for runoff. Resulting runoff for various land covers and soil groups with varying built up conditions were observed. The modeling procedures also included observations for varying precipitation and constant built up in all catchments. All these observations were combined for individual catchment and single regression curve was obtained for runoff. Thus, it was observed that alluvial with suitable land cover was better for infiltration and least generation of runoff but excess built up could not be sustained on alluvial soil. Similarly, basalt had least recharge and most runoff demanding maximum vegetation over it. Sandstone resulted in good recharging if planned with more open spaces and natural soils with intermittent vegetation. Hence, these observations made a keystone base for planners while planning various land uses on different soils. This paper contributes and provides a solution to basic knowledge gap, which urban planners face during development of natural surfaces.

Keywords: runoff, built up, roughness, recharge, temporal changes

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51 Sustainable Landscape Strategies For The 21st Century Suburb

Authors: William Batson, Yunsik Song, Abel Simie

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Recent trends in suburban design and planning have centered on economic efficiency in construction and completion. In doing so, developers, builders, and architects have bypassed free and reliable sustainable solutions to minimize the carbon footprint and improve the environment. Often, suburban areas are designed without landscape features, sidewalks, parks, adequate lighting, or walking space. Much of the design concern involves minimizing construction costs and streamlining streets and utilities. A new development in creating retention ponds to mitigate flooding and slow runoff is one step in the positive direction. However, "if you build them (suburbs), they (fauna) will come." The inevitable flora and fauna that soon propagate and take refuge within these artificial retention ponds create an additional dilemma. Architects, planners, and developers know the requirements and current strategies to provide residents and wildlife with a viable and sustainable environment. This includes habitat for hibernating animals and facilitating opportunities, especially for cold-blooded mammals. Many species that migrate to these artificial ponds struggle to survive, especially during flooding and when the water table drains below the artificial rim, preventing aquatic mammals from climbing on land. This flooding often results from large areas of impervious asphalt and concrete. These impervious surfaces retain and dispense large amounts of rainwater and contaminants that carry industrial pollutants, oil, plastics, animal waste, and fertilizers into storm drains and then deposited in these retention ponds. This paper will identify and show how simple and logical solutions are used to create a sustainable suburb and reduce the carbon footprint using landscape architectural strategies and cost-free design solutions. We will also demonstrate simple changes in the present suburban design model to provide a viable and sustainable suburb for the 21st century.

Keywords: sustainavilty, suburban, flora, fauna, carbon footprint

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50 Joint Probability Distribution of Extreme Water Level with Rainfall and Temperature: Trend Analysis of Potential Impacts of Climate Change

Authors: Ali Razmi, Saeed Golian

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Climate change is known to have the potential to impact adversely hydrologic patterns for variables such as rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and sea level rise. Long-term average of these climate variables could possibly change over time due to climate change impacts. In this study, trend analysis was performed on rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and water level data of a coastal area in Manhattan, New York City, Central Park and Battery Park stations to investigate if there is a significant change in the data mean. Partial Man-Kendall test was used for trend analysis. Frequency analysis was then performed on data using common probability distribution functions such as Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), normal, log-normal and log-Pearson. Goodness of fit tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov are used to determine the most appropriate distributions. In flood frequency analysis, rainfall and water level data are often separately investigated. However, in determining flood zones, simultaneous consideration of rainfall and water level in frequency analysis could have considerable effect on floodplain delineation (flood extent and depth). The present study aims to perform flood frequency analysis considering joint probability distribution for rainfall and storm surge. First, correlation between the considered variables was investigated. Joint probability distribution of extreme water level and temperature was also investigated to examine how global warming could affect sea level flooding impacts. Copula functions were fitted to data and joint probability of water level with rainfall and temperature for different recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, 600 and 1000 was determined and compared with the severity of individual events. Results for trend analysis showed increase in long-term average of data that could be attributed to climate change impacts. GEV distribution was found as the most appropriate function to be fitted to the extreme climate variables. The results for joint probability distribution analysis confirmed the necessity for incorporation of both rainfall and water level data in flood frequency analysis.

Keywords: climate change, climate variables, copula, joint probability

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49 Towards the Need of Resilient Design and Its Assessment in South China

Authors: Alan Lai, Wilson Yik

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With rapid urbanization, there has been a dramatic increase in global urban population in Asia and over half of population in Asia will live in urban regions in the near future. Facing with increasing exposure to climate-related stresses and shocks, most of the Asian cities will very likely to experience more frequent heat waves and flooding with rising sea levels, particularly the coastal cities will grapple for intense typhoons and storm surges. These climate changes have severe impacts in urban areas at the costs of infrastructure and population, for example, human health, wellbeing and high risks of dengue fever, malaria and diarrheal disease. With the increasing prominence of adaptation to climate changes, there have been changes in corresponding policies. Smaller cities have greater potentials for integrating the concept of resilience into their infrastructure as well as keeping pace with their rapid growths in population. It is therefore important to explore the potentials of Asian cities adapting to climate change and the opportunities of building climate resilience in urban planning and building design. Furthermore, previous studies have mainly attempted at exploiting the potential of resilience on a macro-level within urban planning rather than that on micro-level within the context of individual building. The resilience of individual building as a research field has not yet been much explored. Nonetheless, recent studies define that the resilience of an individual building is the one which is able to respond to physical damage and recover from such damage in a quickly and cost-effectively manner, while maintain its primary functions. There is also a need to develop an assessment tool to evaluate the resilience on building scale which is still largely uninvestigated as it should be regarded as a basic function of a building. Due to the lack of literature reporting metric for assessing building resilience with sustainability, the research will be designed as a case study to provide insight into the issue. The aim of this research project is to encourage and assist in developing neighborhood climate resilience design strategies for Hong Kong so as to bridge the gap between difference scales and that between theory and practice.

Keywords: resilience cities, building resilience, resilient buildings and infrastructure, climate resilience, hot and humid southeast area, high-density cities

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48 Florida’s Groundwater and Surface Water System Reliability in Terms of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise

Authors: Rahman Davtalab

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Florida is one of the most vulnerable states to natural disasters among the 50 states of the USA. The state exposed by tropical storms, hurricanes, storm surge, landslide, etc. Besides, the mentioned natural phenomena, global warming, sea-level rise, and other anthropogenic environmental changes make a very complicated and unpredictable system for decision-makers. In this study, we tried to highlight the effects of climate change and sea-level rise on surface water and groundwater systems for three different geographical locations in Florida; Main Canal of Jacksonville Beach (in the northeast of Florida adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean), Grace Lake in central Florida, far away from surrounded coastal line, and Mc Dill in Florida and adjacent to Tampa Bay and Mexican Gulf. An integrated hydrologic and hydraulic model was developed and simulated for all three cases, including surface water, groundwater, or a combination of both. For the case study of Main Canal-Jacksonville Beach, the investigation showed that a 76 cm sea-level rise in time horizon 2060 could increase the flow velocity of the tide cycle for the main canal's outlet and headwater. This case also revealed how the sea level rise could change the tide duration, potentially affecting the coastal ecosystem. As expected, sea-level rise can raise the groundwater level. Therefore, for the Mc Dill case, the effect of groundwater rise on soil storage and the performance of stormwater retention ponds is investigated. The study showed that sea-level rise increased the pond’s seasonal high water up to 40 cm by time horizon 2060. The reliability of the retention pond is dropped from 99% for the current condition to 54% for the future. The results also proved that the retention pond could not retain and infiltrate the designed treatment volume within 72 hours, which is a significant indication of increasing pollutants in the future. Grace Lake case study investigates the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge. This study showed that using the dynamically downscaled data of the groundwater recharge can decline up to 24% by the mid-21st century.

Keywords: groundwater, surface water, Florida, retention pond, tide, sea level rise

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47 Microfacies and Sedimentary Environment of Potentially Hydrocarbon-Bearing Ordovician and Silurian Deposits of Selected Boreholes in the Baltic Syneclise (NE Poland)

Authors: Katarzyna Sobczak

Abstract:

Over the last few years extensive research on the Lower Palaeozic of the Baltic region has been carried out, associated with growing interest in the unconventional hydrocarbon resources of the area. The present study contributes to this investigation by providing relevant microfacies analysis of Ordovician and Silurian carbonate and clastic deposits of the Polish part of the Baltic Syneclise, using data from the Kętrzyn IG-1, Henrykowo 1 and Babiak 1 boreholes. The analytical data, encompassing sedimentological, palaeontological, and petrographic indicators enables the interpretation of the sedimentary environments and their control factors. The main microfacies types distinguished within the studied interval are: bioclastic wackestone, bioclastic packstone, carbonate-rich mudstone, marlstone, nodular limestone and bituminous claystone. The Ordovician is represented by redeposited carbonate rocks formed in a relatively high-energy environment (middle shelf setting). The Upper Ordovician-Lower Silurian rocks of the studied basin represent sedimentary succession formed during a distinctive marine transgression. Considering the sedimentological and petrological data from the Silurian, a low-energy sedimentary environment (offshore setting) with intermittent high-energy events (tempestites) can be inferred for the sedimentary basin of NE Poland. Slow sedimentation of carbonate ooze and fine-grained siliciclastic rocks, formed under oxygen-deficient conditions of the seabed, favoured organic matter preservation. The presence of the storm beds suggests an episodic nature of seabed oxygenation. A significant part of the analysed depositional successions shows characteristics indicative of deposition from gravity flows, but lacks evidence of its turbidity origins. There is, however, evidence for storms acting as a mechanism of flow activation. The discussed Ordovician-Silurian transition of depositional environments in the Baltic area fits well to the global environmental changes encompassing the Upper Ordovician and the Lower Silurian.

Keywords: Baltic Syneclise, microfacies analysis, Ordovician, Silurian, unconventional hydrocarbons

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46 Study on Runoff Allocation Responsibilities of Different Land Uses in a Single Catchment Area

Authors: Chuan-Ming Tung, Jin-Cheng Fu, Chia-En Feng

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In recent years, the rapid development of urban land in Taiwan has led to the constant increase of the areas of impervious surface, which has increased the risk of waterlogging during heavy rainfall. Therefore, in recent years, promoting runoff allocation responsibilities has often been used as a means of reducing regional flooding. In this study, the single catchment area covering both urban and rural land as the study area is discussed. Based on Storm Water Management Model, urban and rural land in a single catchment area was explored to develop the runoff allocation responsibilities according to their respective control regulation on land use. The impacts of runoff increment and reduction in sub-catchment area were studied to understand the impact of highly developed urban land on the reduction of flood risk of rural land at the back end. The results showed that the rainfall with 1 hour short delay of 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, and 25 years return period. If the study area was fully developed, the peak discharge at the outlet would increase by 24.46% -22.97% without runoff allocation responsibilities. The front-end urban land would increase runoff from back-end of rural land by 76.19% -46.51%. However, if runoff allocation responsibilities were carried out in the study area, the peak discharge could be reduced by 58.38-63.08%, which could make the front-end to reduce 54.05% -23.81% of the peak flow to the back-end. In addition, the researchers found that if it was seen from the perspective of runoff allocation responsibilities of per unit area, the residential area of urban land would benefit from the relevant laws and regulations of the urban system, which would have a better effect of reducing flood than the residential land in rural land. For rural land, the development scale of residential land was generally small, which made the effect of flood reduction better than that of industrial land. Agricultural land requires a large area of land, resulting in the lowest share of the flow per unit area. From the point of the planners, this study suggests that for the rural land around the city, its responsibility should be assigned to share the runoff. And setting up rain water storage facilities in the same way as urban land, can also take stock of agricultural land resources to increase the ridge of field for flood storage, in order to improve regional disaster reduction capacity and resilience.

Keywords: runoff allocation responsibilities, land use, flood mitigation, SWMM

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45 Impact of Climate Variability on Household's Crop Income in Central Highlands and Arssi Grain Plough Areas of Ethiopia

Authors: Arega Shumetie Ademe, Belay Kassa, Degye Goshu, Majaliwa Mwanjalolo

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Currently the world economy is suffering from one critical problem, climate change. Some studies done before identified that impact of the problem is region specific means in some part of the world (temperate zone) there is improvement in agricultural performance but in some others like in the tropics there is drastic reduction in crop production and crop income. Climate variability is becoming dominant cause of short-term fluctuation in rain-fed agricultural production and income of developing countries. The purely rain-fed Ethiopian agriculture is the most vulnerable sector to the risks and impacts of climate variability. Thus, this study tried to identify impact of climate variability on crop income of smallholders in Ethiopia. The research used eight rounded unbalanced panel data from 1994- 2014 collected from six villages in the study area. After having all diagnostic tests the research used fixed effect method of regression. Based on the regression result rainfall and temperature deviation from their respective long term averages have negative and significant effect on crop income. Other extreme devastating shocks like flood, storm and frost, which are sourced from climate variability, have significant and negative effect on crop income of households’. Parameters that notify rainfall inconsistency like late start, variation in availability at growing season, and early cessation are critical problems for crop income of smallholder households as to the model result. Given this, impact of climate variability is not consistent in different agro-ecologies of the country. Rainfall variability has similar impact on crop income in different agro-ecology, but variation in temperature affects cold agro-ecology villages negatively and significantly, while it has positive effect in warm villages. Parameters that represent rainfall inconsistency have similar impact in both agro-ecologies and the aggregate model regression. This implies climate variability sourced from rainfall inconsistency is the main problem of Ethiopian agriculture especially the crop production sub-sector of smallholder households.

Keywords: climate variability, crop income, household, rainfall, temperature

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44 An Overview of the Wind and Wave Climate in the Romanian Nearshore

Authors: Liliana Rusu

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The goal of the proposed work is to provide a more comprehensive picture of the wind and wave climate in the Romanian nearshore, using the results provided by numerical models. The Romanian coastal environment is located in the western side of the Black Sea, the more energetic part of the sea, an area with heavy maritime traffic and various offshore operations. Information about the wind and wave climate in the Romanian waters is mainly based on observations at Gloria drilling platform (70 km from the coast). As regards the waves, the measurements of the wave characteristics are not so accurate due to the method used, being also available for a limited period. For this reason, the wave simulations that cover large temporal and spatial scales represent an option to describe better the wave climate. To assess the wind climate in the target area spanning 1992–2016, data provided by the NCEP-CFSR (U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) and consisting in wind fields at 10m above the sea level are used. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the wind fields is good enough to represent the wind variability over the area. For the same 25-year period, as considered for the wind climate, this study characterizes the wave climate from a wave hindcast data set that uses NCEP-CFSR winds as input for a model system SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) based. The wave simulation results with a two-level modelling scale have been validated against both in situ measurements and remotely sensed data. The second level of the system, with a higher resolution in the geographical space (0.02°×0.02°), is focused on the Romanian coastal environment. The main wave parameters simulated at this level are used to analyse the wave climate. The spatial distributions of the wind speed, wind direction and the mean significant wave height have been computed as the average of the total data. As resulted from the amount of data, the target area presents a generally moderate wave climate that is affected by the storm events developed in the Black Sea basin. Both wind and wave climate presents high seasonal variability. All the results are computed as maps that help to find the more dangerous areas. A local analysis has been also employed in some key locations corresponding to highly sensitive areas, as for example the main Romanian harbors.

Keywords: numerical simulations, Romanian nearshore, waves, wind

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43 Breast Cancer Cellular Immunotherapies

Authors: Zahra Shokrolahi, Mohammad Reza Atashzar

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The goals of treating patients with breast cancer are to cure the disease, prolong survival, and improve quality of life. Immune cells in the tumor microenvironment have an important role in regulating tumor progression. The term of cellular immunotherapy refers to the administration of living cells to a patient; this type of immunotherapy can be active, such as a dendritic cell (DC) vaccine, in that the cells can stimulate an anti-tumour response in the patient, or the therapy can be passive, whereby the cells have intrinsic anti-tumour activity; this is known as adoptive cell transfer (ACT) and includes the use of autologous or allogeneic lymphocytes that may, or may not, be modified. The most important breast cancer cellular immunotherapies involving the use of T cells and natural killer (NK) cells in adoptive cell transfer, as well as dendritic cells vaccines. T cell-based therapies including tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), engineered TCR-T cells, chimeric antigen receptor (CAR T cell), Gamma-delta (γδ) T cells, natural killer T (NKT) cells. NK cell-based therapies including lymphokine-activated killers (LAK), cytokine-induced killer (CIK) cells, CAR-NK cells. Adoptive cell therapy has some advantages and disadvantages some. TILs cell strictly directed against tumor-specific antigens but are inactive against tumor changes due to immunoediting. CIK cell have MHC-independent cytotoxic effect and also need concurrent high dose IL-2 administration. CAR T cell are MHC-independent; overcome tumor MHC molecule downregulation; potent in recognizing any cell surface antigen (protein, carbohydrate or glycolipid); applicable to a broad range of patients and T cell populations; production of large numbers of tumor-specific cells in a moderately short period of time. Meanwhile CAR T cells capable of targeting only cell surface antigens; lethal toxicity due to cytokine storm reported. Here we present the most popular cancer cellular immunotherapy approaches and discuss their clinical relevance referring to data acquired from clinical trials .To date, clinical experience and efficacy suggest that combining more than one immunotherapy interventions, in conjunction with other treatment options like chemotherapy, radiotherapy and targeted or epigenetic therapy, should guide the way to cancer cure.

Keywords: breast cancer , cell therapy , CAR T cell , CIK cells

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42 Evaluating the Efficacy of Tasquinimod in Covid-19

Authors: Raphael Udeh, Luis García De Guadiana Romualdo, Xenia Dolje-Gore

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Background: Quite disturbing is the huge public health impact of COVID-19: As at today [25th March 2021, the COVID-19 global burden shows over 123 million cases and over 2.7 million deaths worldwide. Rationale: Recent evidence shows calprotectin’s potential as a therapeutic target, stating that tasquinimod, from the Quinoline-3-Carboxamide family is capable of blocking the interaction between calprotectin and TLR4. Hence preventing the cytokine release syndrome, that heralds the functional exhaustion in COVID-19. Early preclinical studies showed that tasquinimod inhibit tumor growth and prevent angiogenesis/cytokine storm. Phase I – III clinical studies in prostate cancer showed it has a good safety profile with good radiologic progression free survival but no effect on overall survival. Rationale/hypothesis: Strategic endeavors have been amplified globally to assess new therapeutic interventions for COVID-19 management – thus the clinical and antiviral efficacy of tasquinimod in COVID-19 remains to be explored. Hence the primary objective of this trial will be to evaluate the efficacy of tasquinimod in the treatment of adult patients with severe COVID-19 infections. Therefore, I hypothesise that among adults with COVID19 infection, tasquinimod will reduce the severe respiratory distress associated with COVID-19 compared to placebo, over a 28-day study period. Method: The setting is in Europe. Design – a randomized, placebo-controlled, phase II double-blinded trial. Trial lasts for 28 days from randomization, Tasquinimod capsule given as 0.5mg daily 1st fortnight, then 1mg daily 2nd fortnight. I0 outcome - assessed using six-point ordinal scale alongside eight 20 outcomes. 125 participants to be enrolled, data collection at baseline and subsequent data points, and safety reporting monitored via serological profile. Significance: This work could potentially establish tasquinimod as an effective and safe therapeutic agent for COVID-19 by reducing the severe respiratory distress, related time to recovery, time on oxygen/admission. It will also drive future research – as in larger multi-centre RCT.

Keywords: Calprotectin, COVID-19, Phase II Trial, Tasquinimod

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41 Deep Injection Wells for Flood Prevention and Groundwater Management

Authors: Mohammad R. Jafari, Francois G. Bernardeau

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With its arid climate, Qatar experiences low annual rainfall, intense storms, and high evaporation rates. However, the fast-paced rate of infrastructure development in the capital city of Doha has led to recurring instances of surface water flooding as well as rising groundwater levels. Public Work Authority (PWA/ASHGHAL) has implemented an approach to collect and discharge the flood water into a) positive gravity systems; b) Emergency Flooding Area (EFA) – Evaporation, Infiltration or Storage off-site using tankers; and c) Discharge to deep injection wells. As part of the flood prevention scheme, 21 deep injection wells have been constructed to discharge the collected surface and groundwater table in Doha city. These injection wells function as an alternative in localities that do not possess either positive gravity systems or downstream networks that can accommodate additional loads. These injection wells are 400-m deep and are constructed in a complex karstic subsurface condition with large cavities. The injection well system will discharge collected groundwater and storm surface runoff into the permeable Umm Er Radhuma Formation, which is an aquifer present throughout the Persian Gulf Region. The Umm Er Radhuma formation contains saline water that is not being used for water supply. The injection zone is separated by an impervious gypsum formation which acts as a barrier between upper and lower aquifer. State of the art drilling, grouting, and geophysical techniques have been implemented in construction of the wells to assure that the shallow aquifer would not be contaminated and impacted by injected water. Injection and pumping tests were performed to evaluate injection well functionality (injectability). The results of these tests indicated that majority of the wells can accept injection rate of 200 to 300 m3 /h (56 to 83 l/s) under gravity with average value of 250 m3 /h (70 l/s) compared to design value of 50 l/s. This paper presents design and construction process and issues associated with these injection wells, performing injection/pumping tests to determine capacity and effectiveness of the injection wells, the detailed design of collection system and conveying system into the injection wells, and the operation and maintenance process. This system is completed now and is under operation, and therefore, construction of injection wells is an effective option for flood control.

Keywords: deep injection well, flood prevention scheme, geophysical tests, pumping and injection tests, wellhead assembly

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40 Relatively High Heart-Rate Variability Predicts Greater Survival Chances in Patients with Covid-19

Authors: Yori Gidron, Maartje Mol, Norbert Foudraine, Frits Van Osch, Joop Van Den Bergh, Moshe Farchi, Maud Straus

Abstract:

Background: The worldwide pandemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV2), which began in 2019, also known as Covid-19, has infected over 136 million people and tragically took the lives of over 2.9 million people worldwide. Many of the complications and deaths are predicted by the inflammatory “cytokine storm.” One way to progress in the prevention of death is by finding a predictive and protective factor that inhibits inflammation, on the one hand, and which also increases anti-viral immunity on the other hand. The vagal nerve does precisely both actions. This study examined whether vagal nerve activity, indexed by heart-rate variability (HRV), predicts survival in patients with Covid-19. Method: We performed a pseudo-prospective study, where we retroactively obtained ECGs of 271 Covid-19 patients arriving at a large regional hospital in The Netherlands. HRV was indexed by the standard deviation of the intervals between normal heartbeats (SDNN). We examined patients’ survival at 3 weeks and took into account multiple confounders and known prognostic factors (e.g., age, heart disease, diabetes, hypertension). Results: Patients’ mean age was 68 (range: 25-95) and nearly 22% of the patients had died by 3 weeks. Their mean SDNN (17.47msec) was far below the norm (50msec). Importantly, relatively higher HRV significantly predicted a higher chance of survival, after statistically controlling for patients’ age, cardiac diseases, hypertension and diabetes (relative risk, H.R, and 95% confidence interval (95%CI): H.R = 0.49, 95%CI: 0.26 – 0.95, p < 0.05). However, since HRV declines rapidly with age and since age is a profound predictor in Covid-19, we split the sample by median age (40). Subsequently, we found that higher HRV significantly predicted greater survival in patients older than 70 (H.R = 0.35, 95%CI: 0.16 – 0.78, p = 0.01), but HRV did not predict survival in patients below age 70 years (H.R = 1.11, 95%CI: 0.37 – 3.28, p > 0.05). Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study showing that higher vagal nerve activity, as indexed by HRV, is an independent predictor of higher chances for survival in Covid-19. The results are in line with the protective role of the vagal nerve in diseases and extend this to a severe infectious illness. Studies should replicate these findings and then test in controlled trials whether activating the vagus nerve may prevent mortality in Covid-19.

Keywords: Covid-19, heart-rate Variability, prognosis, survival, vagal nerve

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39 IL6/PI3K/mTOR/GFAP Molecular Pathway Role in COVID-19-Induced Neurodegenerative Autophagy, Impacts and Relatives

Authors: Mohammadjavad Sotoudeheian

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COVID-19, which began in December 2019, uses the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor to enter and spread through the cells. ACE2 mRNA is present in almost every organ, including nasopharynx, lung, as well as the brain. Ports of entry of SARS-CoV-2 into the central nervous system (CNS) may include arterial circulation, while viremia is remarkable. However, it is imperious to develop neurological symptoms evaluation CSF analysis in patients with COVID-19, but theoretically, ACE2 receptors are expressed in cerebellar cells and may be a target for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the brain. Recent evidence agrees that SARS-CoV-2 can impact the brain through direct and indirect injury. Two biomarkers for CNS injury, glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and neurofilament light chain (NFL) detected in the plasma of patients with COVID-19. NFL, an axonal protein expressed in neurons, is related to axonal neurodegeneration, and GFAP is over-expressed in CNS inflammation. GFAP cytoplasmic accumulation causes Schwan cells to misfunction, so affects myelin generation, reduces neuroskeletal support over NfLs during CNS inflammation, and leads to axonal degeneration. Interleukin-6 (IL-6), which extensively over-express due to interleukin storm during COVID-19 inflammation, regulates gene expression, as well as GFAP through STAT molecular pathway. IL-6 also impresses the phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K)/STAT/smads pathway. The PI3K/ protein kinase B (Akt) pathway is the main modulator upstream of the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR), and alterations in this pathway are common in neurodegenerative diseases. Most neurodegenerative diseases show a disruption of autophagic function and display an abnormal increase in protein aggregation that promotes cellular death. Therefore, induction of autophagy has been recommended as a rational approach to help neurons clear abnormal protein aggregates and survive. The mTOR is a major regulator of the autophagic process and is regulated by cellular stressors. The mTORC1 pathway and mTORC2, as complementary and important elements in mTORC1 signaling, have become relevant in the regulation of the autophagic process and cellular survival through the extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) pathway.

Keywords: mTORC1, COVID-19, PI3K, autophagy, neurodegeneration

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38 Flash Flood in Gabes City (Tunisia): Hazard Mapping and Vulnerability Assessment

Authors: Habib Abida, Noura Dahri

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Flash floods are among the most serious natural hazards that have disastrous environmental and human impacts. They are associated with exceptional rain events, characterized by short durations, very high intensities, rapid flows and small spatial extent. Flash floods happen very suddenly and are difficult to forecast. They generally cause damage to agricultural crops and property, infrastructures, and may even result in the loss of human lives. The city of Gabes (South-eastern Tunisia) has been exposed to numerous damaging floods because of its mild topography, clay soil, high urbanization rate and erratic rainfall distribution. The risks associated with this situation are expected to increase further in the future because of climate change, deemed responsible for the increase of the frequency and the severity of this natural hazard. Recently, exceptional events hit Gabes City causing death and major property losses. A major flooding event hit the region on June 2nd, 2014, causing human deaths and major material losses. It resulted in the stagnation of storm water in the numerous low zones of the study area, endangering thereby human health and causing disastrous environmental impacts. The characterization of flood risk in Gabes Watershed (South-eastern Tunisia) is considered an important step for flood management. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method coupled with Monte Carlo simulation and geographic information system were applied to delineate and characterize flood areas. A spatial database was developed based on geological map, digital elevation model, land use, and rainfall data in order to evaluate the different factors susceptible to affect flood analysis. Results obtained were validated by remote sensing data for the zones that showed very high flood hazard during the extreme rainfall event of June 2014 that hit the study basin. Moreover, a survey was conducted from different areas of the city in order to understand and explore the different causes of this disaster, its extent and its consequences.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, flash floods, Gabes, remote sensing, Tunisia

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37 Assessment of Impact of Urbanization in Drainage Urban Systems, Cali-Colombia

Authors: A. Caicedo Padilla, J. Zambrano Nájera

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Cali, the capital of Valle del Cauca and the second city of Colombia, is located in the Cauca River Valley between the Western and Central Cordillera that is South West of the country. The topography of the city is mainly flat, but it is possibly to find mountains in the west. The city has increased urbanization during XX century, especially since 1958 when started a rapid growth due to migration of people from other parts of the region. Much of that population has settled in eastern of Cali, an area originally intended for cane cultivation and a zone of flood from Cauca River and its tributaries. Due to the unplanned migration, settling was inadequate and produced changes in natural dynamics of the basins, which has resulted in increases in runoff volumes, peak flows and flow velocities, that in turn increases flood risk. Sewerage networks capacity were not enough for this higher runoff volume, because in first term they were not adequately designed and built, causing its failure. This in turn generates increasingly recurrent floods generating considerable effects on the economy and development of normal activities in Cali. Thus, it becomes very important to know hydrological behavior of Urban Watersheds. This research aims to determine the impact of urbanization on hydrology of watersheds with very low slopes. The project aims to identify changes in natural drainage patterns caused by the changes made on landscape. From the identification of such modifications it will be defined the most critical areas due to recurring flood events in the city of Cali. Critical areas are defined as areas where the sewerage system does not work properly as surface runoff increases considerable with storm events, and floods are recurrent. The assessment will be done from the analysis of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) theme layers from CVC Environmental Institution of Regional Control in Valle del Cauca, hydrological data and disaster database developed by OSSO Corporation. Rainfall data from a network and historical stream flow data will be used for analysis of historical behavior and change of precipitation and hydrological response according to homogeneous zones characterized by EMCALI S.A. public utility enterprise of Cali in 1999.

Keywords: drainage systems, land cover changes, urban hydrology, urban planning

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36 Development of Coastal Inundation–Inland and River Flow Interface Module Based on 2D Hydrodynamic Model

Authors: Eun-Taek Sin, Hyun-Ju Jang, Chang Geun Song, Yong-Sik Han

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Due to the climate change, the coastal urban area repeatedly suffers from the loss of property and life by flooding. There are three main causes of inland submergence. First, when heavy rain with high intensity occurs, the water quantity in inland cannot be drained into rivers by increase in impervious surface of the land development and defect of the pump, storm sewer. Second, river inundation occurs then water surface level surpasses the top of levee. Finally, Coastal inundation occurs due to rising sea water. However, previous studies ignored the complex mechanism of flooding, and showed discrepancy and inadequacy due to linear summation of each analysis result. In this study, inland flooding and river inundation were analyzed together by HDM-2D model. Petrov-Galerkin stabilizing method and flux-blocking algorithm were applied to simulate the inland flooding. In addition, sink/source terms with exponentially growth rate attribute were added to the shallow water equations to include the inland flooding analysis module. The applications of developed model gave satisfactory results, and provided accurate prediction in comprehensive flooding analysis. The applications of developed model gave satisfactory results, and provided accurate prediction in comprehensive flooding analysis. To consider the coastal surge, another module was developed by adding seawater to the existing Inland Flooding-River Inundation binding module for comprehensive flooding analysis. Based on the combined modules, the Coastal Inundation – Inland & River Flow Interface was simulated by inputting the flow rate and depth data in artificial flume. Accordingly, it was able to analyze the flood patterns of coastal cities over time. This study is expected to help identify the complex causes of flooding in coastal areas where complex flooding occurs, and assist in analyzing damage to coastal cities. Acknowledgements—This research was supported by a grant ‘Development of the Evaluation Technology for Complex Causes of Inundation Vulnerability and the Response Plans in Coastal Urban Areas for Adaptation to Climate Change’ [MPSS-NH-2015-77] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korea.

Keywords: flooding analysis, river inundation, inland flooding, 2D hydrodynamic model

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