Search results for: storm events
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2200

Search results for: storm events

1930 Industry 4.0 Adoption, Control Mechanism and Sustainable Performance of Healthcare Supply Chains under Disruptive Impact

Authors: Edward Nartey

Abstract:

Although the boundaries of sustainable performance and growth in the field of service supply chains (SCs) have been broadened by scholars in recent years, research on the impact and promises of Industry 4.0 Destructive Technologies (IDTs) on sustainability performance under disruptive events is still scarce. To mitigate disruptions in the SC and improve efficiency by identifying areas for cost savings, organizations have resorted to investments in digitalization, automation, and control mechanisms in recent years. However, little is known about the sustainability implications for IDT adoption and controls in service SCs, especially during disruptive events. To investigate this paradox, survey data were sought from 223 public health managers across Ghana and analyzed via covariance-based structural equations modelling. The results showed that both formal and informal control have a positive and significant relationship with IDT adoption. In addition, formal control has a significant and positive relationship with environmental and economic sustainability but an insignificant relationship with social sustainability. Furthermore, informal control positively impacts economic performance but has an insignificant relationship with social and environmental sustainability. While the findings highlight the prevalence of the IDTs being initiated by Ghanaian public health institutions (PHIs), this study concludes that the installed control systems in these organizations are inadequate for promoting sustainable SC behaviors under destructive events. Thus, in crisis situations, PHIs need to redesign their control systems to facilitate IDT integration towards sustainability issues in SCs.

Keywords: industry 4.0 destructive technologies, formal control, informal control, sustainable supply chain performance, public health organizations

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1929 The Impacts of Cultural Event on Networking: Liverpool's Cultural Sector in the Aftermath of 2008

Authors: Yi-De Liu

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The aim of this paper is to discuss how the construct of networking and social capital can be used to understand the effect events can have on the cultural sector. Based on case study, this research sought the views of those working in the cultural sector on Liverpool’s year as the European Capital of Culture (ECOC). Methodologically, this study involves literature review to prompt theoretical sensitivity, the collection of primary data via online survey (n= 42) and follow-up telephone interviews (n= 8) to explore the emerging findings in more detail. The findings point to a number of ways in which the ECOC constitutes a boost for networking and its effects on city’s cultural sector, including organisational learning, aspiration and leadership. The contributions of this study are two-fold: (1) Evaluating the long-term effects on network formation in the cultural sector following major event; (2) conceptualising the impact assessment of organisational social capital for future ECOC or similar events.

Keywords: network, social capital, cultural impact, european capital of culture

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1928 Reminiscence Bump in Autobiographical Memory of Freedom Fighters in Bangladesh

Authors: Eamin Zahan Heanoy, Asheek Mohammad Shimul

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The purpose of the present study was to address theoretical issues of reminiscence bump in autobiographical memory using the freedom fighters of Bangladesh as participants. It was assumed that they had a lot of negative memories during the liberation war in 1971 and those events would reflect the construction of reminiscence bump. Three hundred and twenty (320) freedom fighters were selected using mixed method (purposive and random) sampling technique. The freedom fighters were taken from 10 randomly chosen districts of 64. The participants recalled and dated autobiographical memories from across the lifespan. The age of the participants was between 50 to 80+ years. Memories were encoded at the time of the age when the events occurred. As expected the reminiscence bump, preferential recall of memories from second and third decade was observed. Results indicate that the bump for the participants was found 16 to 26 years. And most remarkably, they recalled most of the memories from 1971, the liberation war. Different retrieval curve has been found for male and female participants. The results have been discussed in the light of recent developments in reminiscence bump research.

Keywords: autobiographical memory, freedom fighters, liberation war, reminiscence bump

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1927 Simplified Linearized Layering Method for Stress Intensity Factor Determination

Authors: Jeries J. Abou-Hanna, Bradley Storm

Abstract:

This paper looks to reduce the complexity of determining stress intensity factors while maintaining high levels of accuracy by the use of a linearized layering approach. Many techniques for stress intensity factor determination exist, but they can be limited by conservative results, requiring too many user parameters, or by being too computationally intensive. Multiple notch geometries with various crack lengths were investigated in this study to better understand the effectiveness of the proposed method. By linearizing the average stresses in radial layers around the crack tip, stress intensity factors were found to have error ranging from -10.03% to 8.94% when compared to analytically exact solutions. This approach proved to be a robust and efficient method of accurately determining stress intensity factors.

Keywords: fracture mechanics, finite element method, stress intensity factor, stress linearization

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1926 Major Mechanisms of Atmospheric Moisture Transport and Their Role in Precipitation Extreme Events in the Amazonia

Authors: Luis Gimeno, Rosmeri da Rocha, Raquel Nieto, Tercio Ambrizzi, Alex Ramos, Anita Drumond

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The transport of moisture from oceanic sources to the continents represents the atmospheric branch of the water cycle, forming the connection between evaporation from the ocean and precipitation over the continents. In this regard two large scale dynamical/meteorological structures appear to play a key role, namely Low Level Jet (LLJ) systems and Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). The former are particularly important in tropical and subtropical regions; the latter is mostly confined to extratropical regions. A key question relates to the anomalies in the transport of moisture observed during natural hazards related to extremes of precipitation (i.e., drought or wet spells). In this study we will be focused on these two major atmospheric moisture transport mechanisms (LLJs and ARs) and its role in precipitation extreme events (droughts and wet spells) in the Amazonia paying particular attention to i) intensification (decreasing) of moisture transport by them and its role in wet spells (droughts), and ii) changes in their positions and occurrence with associated flooding and wet spells.

Keywords: droughts, wet spells, amazonia, LLJs, atmospheric rivers

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1925 Aggression Related Trauma and Coping among University Students, Exploring Emotional Intelligence Applications on Coping with Aggression Related Trauma

Authors: Asanka Bulathwatta

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This Study tries to figure out the role of emotional Intelligence for developing coping strategies among adolescents who face traumatic events. Late adolescence students who have enrolled into the University education (Bachelor students/first-year students) would be selected as the sample. University education is an important stage of students’ academic life. Therefore, all students need to develop their competencies to attain the goal of passing examinations and also to developing their wisdom related to the scientific knowledge they gathered through their academic life. Study to be conducted in a cross-cultural manner and it will be taking place in Germany and Sri Lanka. The sample will be consisting of 200 students from each country. Late adolescence is a critical period of the human being as it is foot step in their life which acquiring the emotional and social qualities in their social life. There are many adolescents who have affected by aggression related traumatic events during their lifespan but have not been identified or treated. More specifically, there are numerous burning issues within the first year of the university students namely, ragging done by seniors to juniors, bulling, invalidation and issues raise based on attitudes changes and orientation issues. Those factors can be traumatic for both their academic and day to day lifestyle. Identifying the students who are with emotional damages and their resiliency afterward the aggression related traumas and effective rehabilitation from the traumatic events is immensely needed in order to facilitate university students for their academic achievements and social life within the University education. Research findings in Germany show that students shows more interpersonal traumas, life-threatening illnesses and death of someone related are common in German sample.

Keywords: emotional intelligence, agression, trauma, coping

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1924 Application Research of Stilbene Crystal for the Measurement of Accelerator Neutron Sources

Authors: Zhao Kuo, Chen Liang, Zhang Zhongbing, Ruan Jinlu. He Shiyi, Xu Mengxuan

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Stilbene, C₁₄H₁₂, is well known as one of the most useful organic scintillators for pulse shape discrimination (PSD) technique for its good scintillation properties. An on-line acquisition system and an off-line acquisition system were developed with several CAMAC standard plug-ins, NIM plug-ins, neutron/γ discriminating plug-in named 2160A and a digital oscilloscope with high sampling rate respectively for which stilbene crystals and photomultiplier tube detectors (PMT) as detector for accelerator neutron sources measurement carried out in China Institute of Atomic Energy. Pulse amplitude spectrums and charge amplitude spectrums were real-time recorded after good neutron/γ discrimination whose best PSD figure-of-merits (FoMs) are 1.756 for D-D accelerator neutron source and 1.393 for D-T accelerator neutron source. The probability of neutron events in total events was 80%, and neutron detection efficiency was 5.21% for D-D accelerator neutron sources, which were 50% and 1.44% for D-T accelerator neutron sources after subtracting the background of scattering observed by the on-line acquisition system. Pulse waveform signals were acquired by the off-line acquisition system randomly while the on-line acquisition system working. The PSD FoMs obtained by the off-line acquisition system were 2.158 for D-D accelerator neutron sources and 1.802 for D-T accelerator neutron sources after waveform digitization off-line processing named charge integration method for just 1000 pulses. In addition, the probabilities of neutron events in total events obtained by the off-line acquisition system matched very well with the probabilities of the on-line acquisition system. The pulse information recorded by the off-line acquisition system could be repetitively used to adjust the parameters or methods of PSD research and obtain neutron charge amplitude spectrums or pulse amplitude spectrums after digital analysis with a limited number of pulses. The off-line acquisition system showed equivalent or better measurement effects compared with the online system with a limited number of pulses which indicated a feasible method based on stilbene crystals detectors for the measurement of prompt neutrons neutron sources like prompt accelerator neutron sources emit a number of neutrons in a short time.

Keywords: stilbene crystal, accelerator neutron source, neutron / γ discrimination, figure-of-merits, CAMAC, waveform digitization

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1923 Application of Response Surface Methodology to Assess the Impact of Aqueous and Particulate Phosphorous on Diazotrophic and Non-Diazotrophic Cyanobacteria Associated with Harmful Algal Blooms

Authors: Elizabeth Crafton, Donald Ott, Teresa Cutright

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Harmful algal blooms (HABs), more notably cyanobacteria-dominated HABs, compromise water quality, jeopardize access to drinking water and are a risk to public health and safety. HABs are representative of ecosystem imbalance largely caused by environmental changes, such as eutrophication, that are associated with the globally expanding human population. Cyanobacteria-dominated HABs are anticipated to increase in frequency, magnitude, and are predicted to plague a larger geographical area as a result of climate change. The weather pattern is important as storm-driven, pulse-input of nutrients have been correlated to cyanobacteria-dominated HABs. The mobilization of aqueous and particulate nutrients and the response of the phytoplankton community is an important relationship in this complex phenomenon. This relationship is most apparent in high-impact areas of adequate sunlight, > 20ᵒC, excessive nutrients and quiescent water that corresponds to ideal growth of HABs. Typically the impact of particulate phosphorus is dismissed as an insignificant contribution; which is true for areas that are not considered high-impact. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of a simulated storm-driven, pulse-input of reactive phosphorus and the response of three different cyanobacteria assemblages (~5,000 cells/mL). The aqueous and particulate sources of phosphorus and changes in HAB were tracked weekly for 4 weeks. The first cyanobacteria composition consisted of Planktothrix sp., Microcystis sp., Aphanizomenon sp., and Anabaena sp., with 70% of the total population being non-diazotrophic and 30% being diazotrophic. The second was comprised of Anabaena sp., Planktothrix sp., and Microcystis sp., with 87% diazotrophic and 13% non-diazotrophic. The third composition has yet to be determined as these experiments are ongoing. Preliminary results suggest that both aqueous and particulate sources are contributors of total reactive phosphorus in high-impact areas. The results further highlight shifts in the cyanobacteria assemblage after the simulated pulse-input. In the controls, the reactors dosed with aqueous reactive phosphorus maintained a constant concentration for the duration of the experiment; whereas, the reactors that were dosed with aqueous reactive phosphorus and contained soil decreased from 1.73 mg/L to 0.25 mg/L of reactive phosphorus from time zero to 7 days; this was higher than the blank (0.11 mg/L). Suggesting a binding of aqueous reactive phosphorus to sediment, which is further supported by the positive correlation observed between total reactive phosphorus concentration and turbidity. The experiments are nearly completed and a full statistical analysis will be completed of the results prior to the conference.

Keywords: Anabaena, cyanobacteria, harmful algal blooms, Microcystis, phosphorous, response surface methodology

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1922 Nuclear Near Misses and Their Learning for Healthcare

Authors: Nick Woodier, Iain Moppett

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Background: It is estimated that one in ten patients admitted to hospital will suffer an adverse event in their care. While the majority of these will result in low harm, patients are being significantly harmed by the processes meant to help them. Healthcare, therefore, seeks to make improvements in patient safety by taking learning from other industries that are perceived to be more mature in their management of safety events. Of particular interest to healthcare are ‘near misses,’ those events that almost happened but for an intervention. Healthcare does not have any guidance as to how best to manage and learn from near misses to reduce the chances of harm to patients. The authors, as part of a larger study of near-miss management in healthcare, sought to learn from the UK nuclear sector to develop principles for how healthcare can identify, report, and learn from near misses to improve patient safety. The nuclear sector was chosen as an exemplar due to its status as an ultra-safe industry. Methods: A Grounded Theory (GT) methodology, augmented by a scoping review, was used. Data collection included interviews, scenario discussion, field notes, and the literature. The review protocol is accessible online. The GT aimed to develop theories about how nuclear manages near misses with a focus on defining them and clarifying how best to support reporting and analysis to extract learning. Near misses related to radiation release or exposure were focused on. Results: Eightnuclear interviews contributed to the GT across nuclear power, decommissioning, weapons, and propulsion. The scoping review identified 83 articles across a range of safety-critical industries, with only six focused on nuclear. The GT identified that nuclear has a particular focus on precursors and low-level events, with regulation supporting their management. Exploration of definitions led to the recognition of the importance of several interventions in a sequence of events, but that do not solely rely on humans as these cannot be assumed to be robust barriers. Regarding reporting and analysis, no consistent methods were identified, but for learning, the role of operating experience learning groups was identified as an exemplar. The safety culture across nuclear, however, was heard to vary, which undermined reporting of near misses and other safety events. Some parts of the industry described that their focus on near misses is new and that despite potential risks existing, progress to mitigate hazards is slow. Conclusions: Healthcare often sees ‘nuclear,’ as well as other ultra-safe industries such as ‘aviation,’ as homogenous. However, the findings here suggest significant differences in safety culture and maturity across various parts of the nuclear sector. Healthcare can take learning from some aspects of management of near misses in nuclear, such as how they are defined and how learning is shared through operating experience networks. However, healthcare also needs to recognise that variability exists across industries, and comparably, it may be more mature in some areas of safety.

Keywords: culture, definitions, near miss, nuclear safety, patient safety

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1921 The Probability Foundation of Fundamental Theoretical Physics

Authors: Quznetsov Gunn

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In the study of the logical foundations of probability theory, it was found that the terms and equations of the fundamental theoretical physics represent terms and theorems of the classical probability theory, more precisely, of that part of this theory, which considers the probability of dot events in the 3 + 1 space-time. In particular, the masses, moments, energies, spins, etc. turn out of parameters of probability distributions such events. The terms and the equations of the electroweak and of the quark-gluon theories turn out the theoretical-probabilistic terms and theorems. Here the relation of a neutrino to his lepton becomes clear, the W and Z bosons masses turn out dynamic ones, the cause of the asymmetry between particles and antiparticles is the impossibility of the birth of single antiparticles. In addition, phenomena such as confinement and asymptotic freedom receive their probabilistic explanation. And here we have the logical foundations of the gravity theory with phenomena dark energy and dark matter.

Keywords: classical theory of probability, logical foundation of fundamental theoretical physics, masses, moments, energies, spins

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1920 Local Politics in Taiwan: The Comparison among Magistrates’ Administrative Satisfaction

Authors: Edward Hwang

Abstract:

The efficiency of public policies depends on customer's satisfaction, and the change directions of public policies hinge on customer's assessment; i.e., the performance of public policies in governments is decided by the citizen's administrative satisfaction! The governments in all levels must heave their efficiency and effectiveness of public services to meet the people's substantially multiple needs in order to make citizens trust the governmental operation styles. To pursue the societal equality and justice, governments should treat people equally and provide more services for the disadvantages. The recent Dapu protest event involves Miaoli county Magistrate Liu cheng-hung who arbitrarily demolished houses and destroyed farmlands, and it shifts his popularity into disaffection. Liu case tells us that the political events are lethal to politicians; it cut almost 20% satisfaction degree for Magistrate Liu and hurt KMT support levels nationally. In terms of administrative satisfaction levels, political factors do matter, especially for the derogated events.

Keywords: local politics, administrative satisfaction, Taiwan, customer satisfaction

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1919 Estimation of the Upper Tail Dependence Coefficient for Insurance Loss Data Using an Empirical Copula-Based Approach

Authors: Adrian O'Hagan, Robert McLoughlin

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Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.

Keywords: empirical copula, extreme events, insurance loss reserving, upper tail dependence coefficient

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1918 The Future of Truth and Lies in the Context of Technology-Mediated Environments

Authors: James P. Takona

Abstract:

Most of the global population has never lived through a pandemic, and thus there is so much that remains unknown about students' capacity for resiliency under such environments and circumstances and what a timeline for full recovery will look like. The session will guide participants to focus on misinformation and disinformation in the context of recent crisis events, with specific reference to how information flows across. Particular focus will be given to the flow of information in mediated technology and platforms with particular reference to K-12 and teacher preparation program environments. The paper will draw on theories and responses from the sociology of disaster, the social psychology of rumoring, and published studies on disinformation and misinformation. Applications will be identified and applied in the context of online information-sharing during crisis events. The session will offer the application of the Center for Contagious Diseases' Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication model to understand the themes and evolution of misinformation and disinformation. The paper will invite session participants to suggest and interact with raised challenges on the impact of dis-and misinformation.

Keywords: Sociology of disaster, misinformation, dis-information, Social Psychology of rumors

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1917 Real-Time Monitoring of Drinking Water Quality Using Advanced Devices

Authors: Amani Abdallah, Isam Shahrour

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The quality of drinking water is a major concern of public health. The control of this quality is generally performed in the laboratory, which requires a long time. This type of control is not adapted for accidental pollution from sudden events, which can have serious consequences on population health. Therefore, it is of major interest to develop real-time innovative solutions for the detection of accidental contamination in drinking water systems This paper presents researches conducted within the SunRise Demonstrator for ‘Smart and Sustainable Cities’ with a particular focus on the supervision of the water quality. This work aims at (i) implementing a smart water system in a large water network (Campus of the University Lille1) including innovative equipment for real-time detection of abnormal events, such as those related to the contamination of drinking water and (ii) develop a numerical modeling of the contamination diffusion in the water distribution system. The first step included verification of the water quality sensors and their effectiveness on a network prototype of 50m length. This part included the evaluation of the efficiency of these sensors in the detection both bacterial and chemical contamination events in drinking water distribution systems. An on-line optical sensor integral with a laboratory-scale distribution system (LDS) was shown to respond rapidly to changes in refractive index induced by injected loads of chemical (cadmium, mercury) and biological contaminations (Escherichia coli). All injected substances were detected by the sensor; the magnitude of the response depends on the type of contaminant introduced and it is proportional to the injected substance concentration.

Keywords: distribution system, drinking water, refraction index, sensor, real-time

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1916 Estimation of the Drought Index Based on the Climatic Projections of Precipitation of the Uruguay River Basin

Authors: José Leandro Melgar Néris, Claudinéia Brazil, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Isabel Cristina Damin

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The impact the climate change is not recent, the main variable in the hydrological cycle is the sequence and shortage of a drought, which has a significant impact on the socioeconomic, agricultural and environmental spheres. This study aims to characterize and quantify, based on precipitation climatic projections, the rainy and dry events in the region of the Uruguay River Basin, through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The database is the image that is part of the Intercomparison of Model Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which provides condition prediction models, organized according to the Representative Routes of Concentration (CPR). Compared to the normal set of climates in the Uruguay River Watershed through precipitation projections, seasonal precipitation increases for all proposed scenarios, with a low climate trend. From the data of this research, the idea is that this article can be used to support research and the responsible bodies can use it as a subsidy for mitigation measures in other hydrographic basins.

Keywords: climate change, climatic model, dry events, precipitation projections

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1915 Social Movements and the Diffusion of Tactics and Repertoires: Activists' Network in Anti-Globalism Movement

Authors: Kyoko Tominaga

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Non-Government Organizations (NGOs), Non-Profit Organizations (NPOs), Social Enterprises and other actors play an important role in political decisions in governments at the international levels. Especially, such organizations’ and activists’ network in civil society is quite important to effect to the global politics. To solve the complex social problems in global era, diverse actors should corporate each other. Moreover, network of protesters is also contributes to diffuse tactics, information and other resources of social movements. Based on the findings from the study of International Trade Fairs (ITFs), the author analyzes the network of activists in anti-globalism movement. This research focuses the transition of 54 activists’ whole network in the “protest event” against 2008 G8 summit in Japan. Their network is examined at the three periods: Before protest event phase, during protest event phase and after event phase. A mixed method is used in this study: the author shows the hypothesis from social network analysis and evaluates that with interview data analysis. This analysis gives the two results. Firstly, the more protesters participate to the various events during the protest event, the more they build the network. After that, active protesters keep their network as well. From interview data, we can understand that the active protesters can build their network and diffuse the information because they communicate with other participants and understand that diverse issues are related. This paper comes to same conclusion with previous researches: protest events activate the network among the political activists. However, some participants succeed to build their network, others do not. “Networked” activists are participated in the various events for short period of time and encourage the diffusion of information and tactics of social movements.

Keywords: social movement, global justice movement, tactics, diffusion

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1914 Retrieval-Induced Forgetting Effects in Retrospective and Prospective Memory in Normal Aging: An Experimental Study

Authors: Merve Akca

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Retrieval-induced forgetting (RIF) refers to the phenomenon that selective retrieval of some information impairs memory for related, but not previously retrieved information. Despite age differences in retrieval-induced forgetting regarding retrospective memory being documented, this research aimed to highlight age differences in RIF of the prospective memory tasks for the first time. By using retrieval-practice paradigm, this study comparatively examined RIF effects in retrospective memory and event-based prospective memory in young and old adults. In this experimental study, a mixed factorial design with age group (Young, Old) as a between-subject variable, and memory type (Prospective, Retrospective) and item type (Practiced, Non-practiced) as within-subject variables was employed. Retrieval-induced forgetting was observed in the retrospective but not in the prospective memory task. Therefore, the results indicated that selective retrieval of past events led to suppression of other related past events in both age groups but not the suppression of memory for future intentions.

Keywords: prospective memory, retrieval-induced forgetting, retrieval inhibition, retrospective memory

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1913 Emotion Detection in Twitter Messages Using Combination of Long Short-Term Memory and Convolutional Deep Neural Networks

Authors: Bahareh Golchin, Nooshin Riahi

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One of the most significant issues as attended a lot in recent years is that of recognizing the sentiments and emotions in social media texts. The analysis of sentiments and emotions is intended to recognize the conceptual information such as the opinions, feelings, attitudes and emotions of people towards the products, services, organizations, people, topics, events and features in the written text. These indicate the greatness of the problem space. In the real world, businesses and organizations are always looking for tools to gather ideas, emotions, and directions of people about their products, services, or events related to their own. This article uses the Twitter social network, one of the most popular social networks with about 420 million active users, to extract data. Using this social network, users can share their information and opinions about personal issues, policies, products, events, etc. It can be used with appropriate classification of emotional states due to the availability of its data. In this study, supervised learning and deep neural network algorithms are used to classify the emotional states of Twitter users. The use of deep learning methods to increase the learning capacity of the model is an advantage due to the large amount of available data. Tweets collected on various topics are classified into four classes using a combination of two Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory network and a Convolutional network. The results obtained from this study with an average accuracy of 93%, show good results extracted from the proposed framework and improved accuracy compared to previous work.

Keywords: emotion classification, sentiment analysis, social networks, deep neural networks

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1912 Recurrent Neural Networks for Complex Survival Models

Authors: Pius Marthin, Nihal Ata Tutkun

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Survival analysis has become one of the paramount procedures in the modeling of time-to-event data. When we encounter complex survival problems, the traditional approach remains limited in accounting for the complex correlational structure between the covariates and the outcome due to the strong assumptions that limit the inference and prediction ability of the resulting models. Several studies exist on the deep learning approach to survival modeling; moreover, the application for the case of complex survival problems still needs to be improved. In addition, the existing models need to address the data structure's complexity fully and are subject to noise and redundant information. In this study, we design a deep learning technique (CmpXRnnSurv_AE) that obliterates the limitations imposed by traditional approaches and addresses the above issues to jointly predict the risk-specific probabilities and survival function for recurrent events with competing risks. We introduce the component termed Risks Information Weights (RIW) as an attention mechanism to compute the weighted cumulative incidence function (WCIF) and an external auto-encoder (ExternalAE) as a feature selector to extract complex characteristics among the set of covariates responsible for the cause-specific events. We train our model using synthetic and real data sets and employ the appropriate metrics for complex survival models for evaluation. As benchmarks, we selected both traditional and machine learning models and our model demonstrates better performance across all datasets.

Keywords: cumulative incidence function (CIF), risk information weight (RIW), autoencoders (AE), survival analysis, recurrent events with competing risks, recurrent neural networks (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), self-attention, multilayers perceptrons (MLPs)

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1911 Sex Difference of the Incidence of Sudden Cardiac Arrest/Death in Athletes: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Authors: Lingxia Li, Frédéric Schnell, Shuzhe Ding, Solène Le Douairon Lahaye

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Background: The risk of sudden cardiac arret/death (SCA/D) in athletes is controversial. There is a lack of meta-analyses assessing the sex differences in the risk of SCA/D in competitive athletes. Purpose: The aim of the present study was to evaluate sex differences in the incidence of SCA/D in competitive athletes using meta-analyses. Methods: The systematic review was registered in the PROSPERO database (registration ID: CRD42023432022) and was conducted according to the PRISMA guidelines. PubMed, Embase, Scopus, SPORT Discus and Cochrane Library were searched up to July 2023. To avoid systematic bias in data pooling, only studies with data for both sexes were included. Results: From the 18 included studies, 2028 cases of SCA/D were observed (males 1821 (89.79%), females 207 (10.21%)). The age ranges from the adolescents (<26 years) to the elderly (>45 years). The incidence in male athletes was 1.32/100,000 AY (95% CI: [0.90, 1.93]) and in females was 0.26/100,000 AY (95% CI: [0.16, 0.43]), the incidence rate ratio (IRR) was 6.43 (95% CI: [4.22, 9.79]). The subgroup synthesis showed a higher incidence in males than in females in both age groups <25 years and ≤35 years, the IRR was 5.86 (95% CI: [4.69, 7.32]) and 5.79 (95% CI: [4.73, 7.09]), respectively. When considering the events, the IRR was 6.73 (95%CI: [3.06, 14.78]) among studies involving both SCA/D events and 7.16 (95% CI: [4.93, 10.40]) among studies including only cases of SCD. The available clinical evidence showed that cardiac events were most frequently seen in long-distance running races (26, 35.1%), marathon (16, 21.6%) and soccer (10, 13.5%). Coronary artery disease (14, 18.9%), hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (8, 10.8%), and arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (7, 9.5%) are the most common causes of SCA/D in competitive athletes. Conclusion: The meta-analysis provides evidence of sex differences in the incidence of SCA/D in competitive athletes. The incidence of SCA/D in male athletes was 6 to 7 times higher than in females. Identifying the reasons for this difference may have implications for targeted the prevention of fatal evets in athletes.

Keywords: incidence, sudden cardiac arrest, sudden cardiac death, sex difference, athletes

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1910 A Knowledge-Based Development of Risk Management Approaches for Construction Projects

Authors: Masoud Ghahvechi Pour

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Risk management is a systematic and regular process of identifying, analyzing and responding to risks throughout the project's life cycle in order to achieve the optimal level of elimination, reduction or control of risk. The purpose of project risk management is to increase the probability and effect of positive events and reduce the probability and effect of unpleasant events on the project. Risk management is one of the most fundamental parts of project management, so that unmanaged or untransmitted risks can be one of the primary factors of failure in a project. Effective risk management does not apply to risk regression, which is apparently the cheapest option of the activity. However, the main problem with this option is the economic sensitivity, because what is potentially profitable is by definition risky, and what does not pose a risk is economically interesting and does not bring tangible benefits. Therefore, in relation to the implemented project, effective risk management is finding a "middle ground" in its management, which includes, on the one hand, protection against risk from a negative direction by means of accurate identification and classification of risk, which leads to analysis And it becomes a comprehensive analysis. On the other hand, management using all mathematical and analytical tools should be based on checking the maximum benefits of these decisions. Detailed analysis, taking into account all aspects of the company, including stakeholder analysis, will allow us to add what will become tangible benefits for our project in the future to effective risk management. Identifying the risk of the project is based on the theory that which type of risk may affect the project, and also refers to specific parameters and estimating the probability of their occurrence in the project. These conditions can be divided into three groups: certainty, uncertainty, and risk, which in turn support three types of investment: risk preference, risk neutrality, specific risk deviation, and its measurement. The result of risk identification and project analysis is a list of events that indicate the cause and probability of an event, and a final assessment of its impact on the environment.

Keywords: risk, management, knowledge, risk management

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1909 Improving the Performances of the nMPRA Architecture by Implementing Specific Functions in Hardware

Authors: Ionel Zagan, Vasile Gheorghita Gaitan

Abstract:

Minimizing the response time to asynchronous events in a real-time system is an important factor in increasing the speed of response and an interesting concept in designing equipment fast enough for the most demanding applications. The present article will present the results regarding the validation of the nMPRA (Multi Pipeline Register Architecture) architecture using the FPGA Virtex-7 circuit. The nMPRA concept is a hardware processor with the scheduler implemented at the processor level; this is done without affecting a possible bus communication, as is the case with the other CPU solutions. The implementation of static or dynamic scheduling operations in hardware and the improvement of handling interrupts and events by the real-time executive described in the present article represent a key solution for eliminating the overhead of the operating system functions. The nMPRA processor is capable of executing a preemptive scheduling, using various algorithms without a software scheduler. Therefore, we have also presented various scheduling methods and algorithms used in scheduling the real-time tasks.

Keywords: nMPRA architecture, pipeline processor, preemptive scheduling, real-time system

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1908 Classifications of Sleep Apnea (Obstructive, Central, Mixed) and Hypopnea Events Using Wavelet Packet Transform and Support Vector Machines (VSM)

Authors: Benghenia Hadj Abd El Kader

Abstract:

Sleep apnea events as obstructive, central, mixed or hypopnea are characterized by frequent breathing cessations or reduction in upper airflow during sleep. An advanced method for analyzing the patterning of biomedical signals to recognize obstructive sleep apnea and hypopnea is presented. In the aim to extract characteristic parameters, which will be used for classifying the above stated (obstructive, central, mixed) sleep apnea and hypopnea, the proposed method is based first on the analysis of polysomnography signals such as electrocardiogram signal (ECG) and electromyogram (EMG), then classification of the (obstructive, central, mixed) sleep apnea and hypopnea. The analysis is carried out using the wavelet transform technique in order to extract characteristic parameters whereas classification is carried out by applying the SVM (support vector machine) technique. The obtained results show good recognition rates using characteristic parameters.

Keywords: obstructive, central, mixed, sleep apnea, hypopnea, ECG, EMG, wavelet transform, SVM classifier

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1907 People Who Live in Poverty Usually Do So Due to Circumstances Far Beyond Their Control: A Multiple Case Study on Poverty Simulation Events

Authors: Tracy Smith-Carrier

Abstract:

Burgeoning research extols the benefits of innovative experiential learning activities to increase participants’ engagement, enhance their individual learning, and bridge the gap between theory and practice. This presentation discusses findings from a multiple case study on poverty simulation events conducted with two samples: undergraduate students and community participants. After exploring the nascent research on the benefits and limitations of poverty simulation activities, the study explores whether participating in a poverty simulation resulted in changes to participants’ beliefs about the causes and effects of poverty, as well as shifts in their attitudes and actions toward people experiencing poverty. For the purposes of triangulation, quantitative and qualitative data from a variety of sources were analyzed: participant feedback surveys, qualitative responses, and pre, post, and follow-up questionnaires. Findings show statistically significant results (p<.05) from both samples on cumulative scores of the modified Attitudes Toward Poverty Scale, indicating an improvement in participants’ attitudes toward poverty. Although generally positive about their experiences, participating in the simulation did not appear to have prompted participants to take specific actions to reduce poverty. Conclusions drawn from the research study suggest that poverty simulation planners should be wary of adopting scenarios that emphasize, or fail to adequately contextualize, behaviours or responses that might perpetuate individual explanations of poverty. Moreover, organizers must carefully consider how to ensure participants in their audience currently experiencing low-income do not become emotionally distressed, triggered or further marginalized in the process. While overall participants were positive about their experiences in the simulation, the events did not appear to have prompted them to action. Moving beyond the goal of increasing participants’ understandings of poverty, interventions that foster greater engagement in poverty issues over the long-term are necessary.

Keywords: empathy, experiential learning, poverty awareness, poverty simulation

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1906 An Investigation of Trends and Variability of Rainfall in Shillong City

Authors: Kamal Kumar Tanti, Nayan Moni Saikia, Markynti Swer

Abstract:

This study aims to investigate and analyse the trends and variability of rainfall in Shillong and its nearby areas, located in Meghalaya hills of North-East India; which is geographically a neighbouring area to the wettest places of the Earth, i.e., Cherrapunji and Mawsynram. The analysis of variability and trends to annual, seasonal, monthly and daily rainfall was carried out, using the data collected from the IMD station at Shillong; thereby attempting to highlight whether rainfall in Shillong area has been increasing or decreasing over the years. Rainfall variability coefficient is utilized to compare the current rainfall trend of the area with its past rainfall trends. The present study also aims to analyse the frequency of occurrence of extreme rainfall events over the region. These studies will help us to establish a correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study area.

Keywords: trends and variability of rainfall, annual, seasonal, monthly and daily rainfall, rainfall variability coefficient, extreme rainfall events, climate change, Shillong, Cherrapunji, Mawsynram

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1905 The Impact of Cognitive Load on Deceit Detection and Memory Recall in Children’s Interviews: A Meta-Analysis

Authors: Sevilay Çankaya

Abstract:

The detection of deception in children’s interviews is essential for statement veracity. The widely used method for deception detection is building cognitive load, which is the logic of the cognitive interview (CI), and its effectiveness for adults is approved. This meta-analysis delves into the effectiveness of inducing cognitive load as a means of enhancing veracity detection during interviews with children. Additionally, the effectiveness of cognitive load on children's total number of events recalled is assessed as a second part of the analysis. The current meta-analysis includes ten effect sizes from search using databases. For the effect size calculation, Hedge’s g was used with a random effect model by using CMA version 2. Heterogeneity analysis was conducted to detect potential moderators. The overall result indicated that cognitive load had no significant effect on veracity outcomes (g =0.052, 95% CI [-.006,1.25]). However, a high level of heterogeneity was found (I² = 92%). Age, participants’ characteristics, interview setting, and characteristics of the interviewer were coded as possible moderators to explain variance. Age was significant moderator (β = .021; p = .03, R2 = 75%) but the analysis did not reveal statistically significant effects for other potential moderators: participants’ characteristics (Q = 0.106, df = 1, p = .744), interview setting (Q = 2.04, df = 1, p = .154), and characteristics of interviewer (Q = 2.96, df = 1, p = .086). For the second outcome, the total number of events recalled, the overall effect was significant (g =4.121, 95% CI [2.256,5.985]). The cognitive load was effective in total recalled events when interviewing with children. All in all, while age plays a crucial role in determining the impact of cognitive load on veracity, the surrounding context, interviewer attributes, and inherent participant traits may not significantly alter the relationship. These findings throw light on the need for more focused, age-specific methods when using cognitive load measures. It may be possible to improve the precision and dependability of deceit detection in children's interviews with the help of more studies in this field.

Keywords: deceit detection, cognitive load, memory recall, children interviews, meta-analysis

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1904 Comparison of Two Strategies in Thoracoscopic Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation

Authors: Alexander Zotov, Ilkin Osmanov, Emil Sakharov, Oleg Shelest, Aleksander Troitskiy, Robert Khabazov

Abstract:

Objective: Thoracoscopic surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) includes two technologies in performing of operation. 1st strategy used is the AtriCure device (bipolar, nonirrigated, non clamping), 2nd strategy is- the Medtronic device (bipolar, irrigated, clamping). The study presents a comparative analysis of clinical outcomes of two strategies in thoracoscopic ablation of AF using AtriCure vs. Medtronic devices. Methods: In 2 center study, 123 patients underwent thoracoscopic ablation of AF for the period from 2016 to 2020. Patients were divided into two groups. The first group is represented by patients who applied the AtriCure device (N=63), and the second group is - the Medtronic device (N=60), respectively. Patients were comparable in age, gender, and initial severity of the condition. Among the patients, in group 1 were 65% males with a median age of 57 years, while in group 2 – 75% and 60 years, respectively. Group 1 included patients with paroxysmal form -14,3%, persistent form - 68,3%, long-standing persistent form – 17,5%, group 2 – 13,3%, 13,3% and 73,3% respectively. Median ejection fraction and indexed left atrial volume amounted in group 1 – 63% and 40,6 ml/m2, in group 2 - 56% and 40,5 ml/m2. In addition, group 1 consisted of 39,7% patients with chronic heart failure (NYHA Class II) and 4,8% with chronic heart failure (NYHA Class III), when in group 2 – 45% and 6,7%, respectively. Follow-up consisted of laboratory tests, chest Х-ray, ECG, 24-hour Holter monitor, and cardiopulmonary exercise test. Duration of freedom from AF, distant mortality rate, and prevalence of cerebrovascular events were compared between the two groups. Results: Exit block was achieved in all patients. According to the Clavien-Dindo classification of surgical complications fraction of adverse events was 14,3% and 16,7% (1st group and 2nd group, respectively). Mean follow-up period in the 1st group was 50,4 (31,8; 64,8) months, in 2nd group - 30,5 (14,1; 37,5) months (P=0,0001). In group 1 - total freedom of AF was in 73,3% of patients, among which 25% had additional antiarrhythmic drugs (AADs) therapy or catheter ablation (CA), in group 2 – 90% and 18,3%, respectively (for total freedom of AF P<0,02). At follow-up, the distant mortality rate in the 1st group was – 4,8%, and in the 2nd – no fatal events. Prevalence of cerebrovascular events was higher in the 1st group than in the 2nd (6,7% vs. 1,7% respectively). Conclusions: Despite the relatively shorter follow-up of the 2nd group in the study, applying the strategy using the Medtronic device showed quite encouraging results. Further research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of this strategy in the long-term period.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation, clamping, ablation, thoracoscopic surgery

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1903 Surveillance of Adverse Events Following Immunization during New Vaccines Introduction in Cameroon: A Cross-Sectional Study on the Role of Mobile Technology

Authors: Andreas Ateke Njoh, Shalom Tchokfe Ndoula, Amani Adidja, Germain Nguessan Menan, Annie Mengue, Eric Mboke, Hassan Ben Bachir, Sangwe Clovis Nchinjoh, Yauba Saidu, Laurent Cleenewerck De Kiev

Abstract:

Vaccines serve a great deal in protecting the population globally. Vaccine products are subject to rigorous quality control and approval before use to ensure safety. Even if all actors take the required precautions, some people could still have adverse events following immunization (AEFI) caused by the vaccine composition or an error in its administration. AEFI underreporting is pronounced in low-income settings like Cameroon. The Country introduced electronic platforms to strengthen surveillance. With the introduction of many novel vaccines, like COVID-19 and the novel Oral Polio Vaccine (nOPV) 2, there was a need to monitor AEFI in the Country. A cross-sectional study was conducted from July to December 2022. Data on AEFI per region of Cameroon were reviewed for the past five years. Data were analyzed with MS Excel, and the results were presented in proportions. AEFI reporting was uncommon in Cameroon. With the introduction of novel vaccines in 2021, the health authorities engaged in new tools and training to capture cases. AEFI detected almost doubled using the open data kit (ODK) compared to previous platforms, especially following the introduction of the nOPV2 and COVID-19 vaccines. The AEFI rate was 1.9 and 160 per administered 100 000 doses of nOPV2 and COVID-19 vaccines, respectively. This mobile tool captured individual information for people with AEFI from all regions. The platform helped to identify common AEFI following the use of these new vaccines. The ODK mobile technology was vital in improving AEFI reporting and providing data to monitor using new vaccines in Cameroon.

Keywords: adverse events following immunization, cameroon, COVID-19 vaccines, nOPV, ODK

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1902 The Use of Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) in Improving the Measurement System on the Example of Textile Heaps

Authors: Arkadiusz Zurek

Abstract:

The potential of using drones is visible in many areas of logistics, especially in terms of their use for monitoring and control of many processes. The technologies implemented in the last decade concern new possibilities for companies that until now have not even considered them, such as warehouse inventories. Unmanned aerial vehicles are no longer seen as a revolutionary tool for Industry 4.0, but rather as tools in the daily work of factories and logistics operators. The research problem is to develop a method for measuring the weight of goods in a selected link of the clothing supply chain by drones. However, the purpose of this article is to analyze the causes of errors in traditional measurements, and then to identify adverse events related to the use of drones for the inventory of a heap of textiles intended for production purposes. On this basis, it will be possible to develop guidelines to eliminate the causes of these events in the measurement process using drones. In a real environment, work was carried out to determine the volume and weight of textiles, including, among others, weighing a textile sample to determine the average density of the assortment, establishing a local geodetic network, terrestrial laser scanning and photogrammetric raid using an unmanned aerial vehicle. As a result of the analysis of measurement data obtained in the facility, the volume and weight of the assortment and the accuracy of their determination were determined. In this article, this work presents how such heaps are currently being tested, what adverse events occur, indicate and describes the current use of photogrammetric techniques of this type of measurements so far performed by external drones for the inventory of wind farms or construction of the station and compare them with the measurement system of the aforementioned textile heap inside a large-format facility.

Keywords: drones, unmanned aerial system, UAS, indoor system, security, process automation, cost optimization, photogrammetry, risk elimination, industry 4.0

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1901 Botulinum Toxin type A for Lower Limb Lengthening and Deformity Correction: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Authors: Jawaher F. Alsharef, Abdullah A. Ghaddaf, Mohammed S. Alomari, Abdullah A. Al Qurashi, Ahmed S. Abdulhamid, Mohammed S. Alshehri, Majed Alosaimi

Abstract:

Botulinum toxin type A (BTX-A) is the most popular therapeutic agent for muscle relaxation and pain control. Lately, BTX-A injection received great interest as a part of multimodal pain management for lower limb lengthening and deformity correction. This systematic review aimed to determine the role of BTX-A injection in pain management for during lower limb lengthening and/or deformity correction. We searched Medline, Embase, and CENTRAL. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared the BTX-A injection to placebo for individuals undergoing lower limb lengthening and/or deformity correction. We sought to evaluate the following outcomes: pain on visual analogue scale (VAS), range of motion parameters, average opioid consumption, and adverse events. The standardized mean difference (SMD) was used to represent continuous outcomes while risk ratio (RR) was used to represent dichotomous outcomes. A total of 4 RCTs that enrolled 257 participants (337 limbs) deemed eligible. Adjuvant BTX-A injection showed a significant reduction in post-operative pain compared to placebo (SMD=–0.28, 95% CI –0.53 to –0.04). No difference was found between BTX-A injection and placebo in terms of range of motion parameters, average opioid consumption, or adverse events after surgical limb lengthening and/or deformity correction (RR= 0.77, 95% CI –0.58 to 1.03). Conclusions: Adjuvant BTX-A injection conferred a discernible reduction in post-operative pain during surgical limb lengthening and/or deformity without increasing the risk of adverse events.

Keywords: botulinum toxin type A, limb lengthening, distraction osteogenesis, deformity correction, pain management

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