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Authors: Carolina S. Monteiro, Eugénia Pinto, Miguel A. Faria, Sara C. Cunha

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Rice (Oryza sativa) production plays a vital role in reducing hunger and poverty and assumes particular importance in low-income and developing countries. Rice is a sensitive plant, and production occurs strictly where suitable temperature and water conditions are found. Climatic changes are likely to affect worldwide, and some models have predicted increased temperatures, variations in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and modification in precipitation patterns. Therefore, the ongoing climatic changes threaten rice production by increasing biotic and abiotic stress factors, and crops will grow in different environmental conditions in the following years. Around the world, the effects will be regional and can be detrimental or advantageous depending on the region. Mediterranean zones have been identified as possible hot spots, where dramatic temperature changes, modifications of CO₂ levels, and rainfall patterns are predicted. The actual estimated atmospheric CO₂ concentration is around 400 ppm, and it is predicted that it can reach up to 1000–1200 ppm, which can lead to a temperature increase of 2–4 °C. Alongside, rainfall patterns are also expected to change, with more extreme wet/dry episodes taking place. As a result, it could increase the migration of pathogens, and a shift in the occurrence of mycotoxins, concerning their types and concentrations, is expected. Mycotoxigenic spoilage fungi can colonize the crops and be present in all rice food chain supplies, especially Penicillium species, mainly resulting in ochratoxin A (OTA) contamination. In this scenario, the objectives of the present study are evaluating the effect of temperature (20 vs. 25 °C), CO₂ (400 vs. 1000 ppm), and water stress (0.93 vs 0.95 water activity) on growth and OTA production by a Penicillium nordicum strain in vitro on rice-based media and when colonizing layers of raw rice. Results demonstrate the effect of temperature, CO₂ and drought on the OTA production in a rice-based environment, thus contributing to the development of mycotoxins predictive models in climate change scenarios. As a result, improving mycotoxins' surveillance and monitoring systems, whose occurrence can be more frequent due to climatic changes, seems relevant and necessary. The development of prediction models for hazard contaminants presents in foods highly sensitive to climatic changes, such as mycotoxins, in the highly probable new agricultural scenarios is of paramount importance.

Keywords: climate changes, ochratoxin A, penicillium, rice

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Authors: Jithin S. Kumar, Ramesh Kannan Kandasami

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Geomaterials are generally porous in nature due to the presence of discrete particles and interconnected voids. The porosity present in these geomaterials play a critical role in many engineering applications such as CO2 sequestration, well bore strengthening, enhanced oil and hydrocarbon recovery, hydraulic fracturing, and subsurface waste storage. These applications involves solid-fluid interactions, which govern the changes in the porosity which in turn affect the permeability and stiffness of the medium. Injecting fluid into the geomaterials results in permeation which exhibits small or negligible deformation of the soil skeleton followed by cavity expansion/ fingering/ fracturing (different forms of instabilities) due to the large deformation especially when the flow rate is greater than the ability of the medium to permeate the fluid. The complexity of this problem increases as the geomaterial behaves like a solid and fluid under certain conditions. Thus it is important to understand this multiphysics problem where in addition to the permeation, the elastic-plastic deformation of the soil skeleton plays a vital role during fluid injection. The phenomenon of permeation and cavity expansion in porous medium has been studied independently through extensive experimental and analytical/ numerical models. The analytical models generally use Darcy's/ diffusion equations to capture the fluid flow during permeation while elastic-plastic (Mohr-Coulomb and Modified Cam-Clay) models were used to predict the solid deformations. Hitherto, the research generally focused on modelling cavity expansion without considering the effect of injected fluid coming into the medium. Very few studies have considered the effect of injected fluid on the deformation of soil skeleton. However, the porosity changes during the fluid injection and coupled elastic-plastic deformation are not clearly understood. In this study, the phenomenon of permeation and instabilities such as cavity and finger/ fracture formation will be quantified extensively by performing experiments using a novel experimental setup in addition to utilizing image processing techniques. This experimental study will describe the fluid flow and soil deformation characteristics under different boundary conditions. Further, a well refined coupled semi-analytical model will be developed to capture the physics involved in quantifying the deformation behaviour of geomaterial during fluid injection.

Keywords: solid-fluid interaction, permeation, poroelasticity, plasticity, continuum model

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Authors: Mubarack Ahmed, Gabriele Gradoni, Stephen C. Creagh, Gregor Tanner

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High-frequency cables commonly connect modern devices and sensors. Interestingly, the proportion of electric components is rising fast in an attempt to achieve lighter and greener devices. Modelling the propagation of signals through these cable networks in the presence of parameter uncertainty is a daunting task. In this work, we study the response of high-frequency cable networks using both Transmission Line and Quantum Graph (QG) theories. We have successfully compared the two theories in terms of reflection spectra using measurements on real, lossy cables. We have derived a generalisation of the vertex scattering matrix to include non-uniform networks – networks of cables with different characteristic impedances and propagation constants. The QG model implicitly takes into account the pseudo-chaotic behavior, at the vertices, of the propagating electric signal. We have successfully compared the asymptotic growth of eigenvalues of the Laplacian with the predictions of Weyl law. We investigate the nearest-neighbour level-spacing distribution of the resonances and compare our results with the predictions of Random Matrix Theory (RMT). To achieve this, we will compare our graphs with the generalisation of Wigner distribution for open systems. The problem of scattering from networks of cables can also provide an analogue model for wireless communication in highly reverberant environments. In this context, we provide a preliminary analysis of the statistics of communication capacity for communication across cable networks, whose eventual aim is to enable detailed laboratory testing of information transfer rates using software defined radio. We specialise this analysis in particular for the case of MIMO (Multiple-Input Multiple-Output) protocols. We have successfully validated our QG model with both TL model and laboratory measurements. The growth of Eigenvalues compares well with Weyl’s law and the level-spacing distribution agrees so well RMT predictions. The results we achieved in the MIMO application compares favourably with the prediction of a parallel on-going research (sponsored by NEMF21.)

Keywords: eigenvalues, multiple-input multiple-output, quantum graph, random matrix theory, transmission line

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Authors: Agnieszka A. Malinowska, R. Hejmanowski

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A number of European cities are strongly affected by ground movements caused by anthropogenic activities or post-anthropogenic metamorphosis. Those are mainly water pumping, current mining operation, the collapse of post-mining underground voids or mining-induced earthquakes. These activities lead to large and small-scale ground displacements and a ground ruptures. The ground movements occurring in urban areas could considerably affect stability and safety of structures and infrastructures. The complexity of the ground deformation phenomenon in relation to the structures and infrastructures vulnerability leads to considerable constraints in assessing the threat of those objects. However, the increase of access to the free software and satellite data could pave the way for developing new methods and strategies for environmental risk mitigation and management. Open source geographical information systems (OS GIS), may support data integration, management, and risk analysis. Lately, developed methods based on fuzzy logic and experts methods for buildings and infrastructure damage risk assessment could be integrated into OS GIS. Those methods were verified base on back analysis proving their accuracy. Moreover, those methods could be supported by ground displacement observation. Based on freely available data from European Space Agency and free software, ground deformation could be estimated. The main innovation presented in the paper is the application of open source software (OS GIS) for integration developed models and assessment of the threat of urban areas. Those approaches will be reinforced by analysis of ground movement based on free satellite data. Those data would support the verification of ground movement prediction models. Moreover, satellite data will enable our mapping of ground deformation in urbanized areas. Developed models and methods have been implemented in one of the urban areas hazarded by underground mining activity. Vulnerability maps supported by satellite ground movement observation would mitigate the hazards of land displacements in urban areas close to mines.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, open source geographic information science (OS GIS), risk assessment on urbanized areas, satellite interferometry (InSAR)

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Authors: Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Višnjica Vučetić, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Barbara Malečić

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The Split wildfire on the mid-Adriatic Coast in July 2017 is one of the most severe wildfires in Croatian history, given the size and unexpected fire behavior, and it is used in this research as a case study to run the Weather Research and Forecasting Spread Fire (WRF SFIRE) model. This coupled fire-atmosphere model was successfully run for the first time ever for one Croatian wildfire case. Verification of coupled simulations was possible by using the detailed reconstruction of the Split wildfire. Specifically, precise information on ignition time and location, together with mapped fire progressions and spotting within the first 30 hours of the wildfire, was used for both – to initialize simulations and to evaluate the model’s ability to simulate fire’s propagation and final fire scar. The preliminary simulations were obtained using high-resolution vegetation and topography data for the fire area, additionally interpolated to fire grid spacing at 33.3 m. The results demonstrated that the WRF SFIRE model has the ability to work with real data from Croatia and produce adequate results for forecasting fire spread. As the model in its setup has the ability to include and exclude the energy fluxes between the fire and the atmosphere, this was used to investigate possible fire-atmosphere interactions during the Split wildfire. Finally, successfully coupled simulations provided the first numerical evidence that a wildfire from the Adriatic coast region can modify the dynamical structure of the surrounding atmosphere, which agrees with observations from fire grounds. This study has demonstrated that the WRF SFIRE model has the potential for operational application in Croatia with more accurate fire predictions in the future, which could be accomplished by inserting the higher-resolution input data into the model without interpolation. Possible uses for fire management in Croatia include prediction of fire spread and intensity that may vary under changing weather conditions, available fuels and topography, planning effective and safe deployment of ground and aerial firefighting forces, preventing wildland-urban interface fires, effective planning of evacuation routes etc. In addition, the WRF SFIRE model results from this research demonstrated that the model is important for fire weather research and education purposes in order to better understand this hazardous phenomenon that occurs in Croatia.

Keywords: meteorology, agrometeorology, fire weather, wildfires, couple fire-atmosphere model

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Authors: Hany Elsaid Fawaz Abdallah

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This study presents a new artificial neural network(ANN) model to predict the Nusselt Number and pressure drop for the turbulent flow in a triangular corrugated plate heat exchanger for forced air and turbulent water flow. An experimental investigation was performed to create a new dataset for the Nusselt Number and pressure drop values in the following range of dimensionless parameters: The plate corrugation angles (from 0° to 60°), the Reynolds number (from 10000 to 40000), pitch to height ratio (from 1 to 4), and Prandtl number (from 0.7 to 200). Based on the ANN performance graph, the three-layer structure with {12-8-6} hidden neurons has been chosen. The training procedure includes back-propagation with the biases and weight adjustment, the evaluation of the loss function for the training and validation dataset and feed-forward propagation of the input parameters. The linear function was used at the output layer as the activation function, while for the hidden layers, the rectified linear unit activation function was utilized. In order to accelerate the ANN training, the loss function minimization may be achieved by the adaptive moment estimation algorithm (ADAM). The ‘‘MinMax’’ normalization approach was utilized to avoid the increase in the training time due to drastic differences in the loss function gradients with respect to the values of weights. Since the test dataset is not being used for the ANN training, a cross-validation technique is applied to the ANN network using the new data. Such procedure was repeated until loss function convergence was achieved or for 4000 epochs with a batch size of 200 points. The program code was written in Python 3.0 using open-source ANN libraries such as Scikit learn, TensorFlow and Keras libraries. The mean average percent error values of 9.4% for the Nusselt number and 8.2% for pressure drop for the ANN model have been achieved. Therefore, higher accuracy compared to the generalized correlations was achieved. The performance validation of the obtained model was based on a comparison of predicted data with the experimental results yielding excellent accuracy.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, corrugated channel, heat transfer enhancement, Nusselt number, pressure drop, generalized correlations

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Authors: Brian J. Biroscak

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In the United States (US), “sex trafficking” is defined at the federal level in the Trafficking Victims Protection Act of 2000 as encompassing a number of processes such as recruitment, transportation, and provision of a person for the purpose of a commercial sex act. It involves the use of force, fraud, or coercion, or in which the person induced to perform such act has not attained 18 years of age. Accumulating evidence suggests that sex trafficking is exacerbated by social and environmental stressors (e.g., pandemics). Given that “provision” is a key part of the definition, “provisioning systems” may offer a useful lens through which to study sex trafficking dynamics. Provisioning systems are the social systems connecting individuals, small groups, entities, and embedded communities as they seek to satisfy their needs and wants for goods, services, experiences and ideas through value-based exchange in communities. This project presents a conceptual framework for understanding sex trafficking dynamics in the context of the COVID pandemic. The framework is developed as a system dynamics simulation model based on published evidence, social and behavioral science theory, and key informant interviews with stakeholders from the Protection, Prevention, Prosecution, and Partnership sectors in one US state. This “4 P Paradigm” has been described as fundamental to the US government’s anti-trafficking strategy. The present research question is: “How do sex trafficking systems (e.g., supply, demand and price) interact with other provisioning systems (e.g., networks of organizations that help sexually exploited persons) to influence trafficking over time vis-à-vis the COVID pandemic?” Semi-structured interviews with stakeholders (n = 19) were analyzed based on grounded theory and combined for computer simulation. The first step (Problem Definition) was completed by open coding video-recorded interviews, supplemented by a literature review. The model depicts provision of sex trafficking services for victims and survivors as declining in March 2020, coincidental with COVID, but eventually rebounding. The second modeling step (Dynamic Hypothesis Formulation) was completed by open- and axial coding of interview segments, as well as consulting peer-reviewed literature. Part of the hypothesized explanation for changes over time is that the sex trafficking system behaves somewhat like a commodities market, with each of the other subsystems exhibiting delayed responses but collectively keeping trafficking levels below what they would be otherwise. Next steps (Model Building & Testing) led to a ‘proof of concept’ model that can be used to conduct simulation experiments and test various action ideas, by taking model users outside the entire system and seeing it whole. If sex trafficking dynamics unfold as hypothesized, e.g., oscillated post-COVID, then one potential leverage point is to address the lack of information feedback loops between the actual occurrence and consequences of sex trafficking and those who seek to prevent its occurrence, prosecute the traffickers, protect the victims and survivors, and partner with the other anti-trafficking advocates. Implications for researchers, administrators, and other stakeholders are discussed.

Keywords: pandemics, provisioning systems, sex trafficking, system dynamics modeling

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Authors: Junie B. Billones, Maria Constancia O. Carrillo, Voltaire G. Organo, Stephani Joy Y. Macalino, Inno A. Emnacen, Jamie Bernadette A. Sy

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The drug discovery and development process is generally known to be a very lengthy and labor-intensive process. Therefore, in order to be able to deliver prompt and effective responses to cure certain diseases, there is an urgent need to reduce the time and resources needed to design, develop, and optimize potential drugs. Computer-aided drug design (CADD) is able to alleviate this issue by applying computational power in order to streamline the whole drug discovery process, starting from target identification to lead optimization. This drug design approach can be predominantly applied to diseases that cause major public health concerns, such as tuberculosis. Hitherto, there has been no concrete cure for this disease, especially with the continuing emergence of drug resistant strains. In this study, CADD is employed for tuberculosis by first identifying a key enzyme in the mycobacterium’s metabolic pathway that would make a good drug target. One such potential target is the lipoate protein ligase B enzyme (LipB), which is a key enzyme in the M. tuberculosis metabolic pathway involved in the biosynthesis of the lipoic acid cofactor. Its expression is considerably up-regulated in patients with multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and it has no known back-up mechanism that can take over its function when inhibited, making it an extremely attractive target. Using cutting-edge computational methods, compounds from AnalytiCon Discovery Natural Derivatives database were screened and docked against the LipB enzyme in order to rank them based on their binding affinities. Compounds which have better binding affinities than LipB’s known inhibitor, decanoic acid, were subjected to in silico toxicity evaluation using the ADMET and TOPKAT protocols. Out of the 31,692 compounds in the database, 112 of these showed better binding energies than decanoic acid. Furthermore, 12 out of the 112 compounds showed highly promising ADMET and TOPKAT properties. Future studies involving in vitro or in vivo bioassays may be done to further confirm the therapeutic efficacy of these 12 compounds, which eventually may then lead to a novel class of anti-tuberculosis drugs.

Keywords: pharmacophore, molecular docking, lipoate protein ligase B (LipB), ADMET, TOPKAT

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Authors: Josephine R. Migalbin

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Halal is an Arabic word meaning "lawful" or "permitted". When it comes to food and consumables, Halal is the dietary standard of Muslims. The Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) has a comparative advantage when it comes to Halal Industry because it is the only Muslim region in the Philippines and the natural starting point for the establishment of a halal industry in the country. The region has identified goat production not only for domestic consumption but for export market. Goat production is one of its strengths due to cultural compatibility. There is a high demand for goats during Ramadhan and Eid ul-Adha. The study aimed to provide an overview of the ARMM Halal Goat Industry; to map out the specific supply chain of halal goat, and to analyze the performance of the halal goat supply chain in terms of efficiency, flexibility, and overall responsiveness. It also aimed to identify areas for improvement in the supply chain such as behavioural, institutional, and process to provide recommendations for improvement in the supply chain towards efficient and effective production and marketing of halal goats, subsequently improving the plight of the actors in the supply chain. Generally, the raising of goats is characterized by backyard production (92.02%). There are four interrelated factors affecting significantly the production of goats which are breeding prolificacy, prevalence of diseases, feed abundance and pre-weaning mortality rate. The institutional buyers are mostly traders, restaurants/eateries, supermarkets, and meat shops, among others. The municipalities of Midsayap and Pikit in another region and Parang are the major goat sources and the municipalities in ARMM among others. In addition to the major supply centers, Siquijor, an island province in the Visayas is becoming a key source of goats. Goats are usually gathered by traders/middlemen and brought to the public markets. Meat vendors purchase them directly from raisers, slaughtered and sold fresh in wet markets. It was observed that there is increased demand at 2%/year and that supply is not enough to meet the demand. Farm gate price is 2.04 USD to 2.11 USD/kg liveweight. Industry information is shared by three key participants - raisers, traders and buyers. All respondents reported that information is through personal built-upon past experiences and that there is no full disclosure of information among the key participants in the chain. The information flow in the industry is fragmented in nature such that no total industry picture exists. In the last five years, numerous local and foreign agencies had undertaken several initiatives for the development of the halal goat industry in ARMM. The major issues include productivity which is the greatest challenge, difficulties in accessing technical support channels and lack of market linkage and consolidation. To address the various issues and concerns of the various industry players, there is a need to intensify appropriate technology transfer through extension activities, improve marketing channels by grouping producers, strengthen veterinary services and provide capital windows to improve facilities and reduce logistics and transaction costs in the entire supply chain.

Keywords: autonomous region in Muslim Mindanao, halal, halal goat industry, supply chain improvement

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Authors: Chenyi Ma

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Background: The second costliest hurricane in U.S. history, Sandy landed in southern New Jersey on October 29, 2012, and struck the entire state with high winds and torrential rains. The disaster killed more than 100 people, left more than 8.5 million households without power, and damaged or destroyed more than 200,000 homes across the state. Immediately after the disaster, public policy support was provided in nine coastal counties that constituted 98% of the major and severely damaged housing units in NJ overall. The programs include Individuals and Households Assistance Program, Small Business Loan Program, National Flood Insurance Program, and the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) Public Assistance Grant Program. In the most severely affected counties, additional funding was provided through Community Development Block Grant: Reconstruction, Rehabilitation, Elevation, and Mitigation Program, and Homeowner Resettlement Program. How these policies individually and as a whole impacted housing recovery across communities with different socioeconomic and demographic profiles has not yet been studied, particularly in relation to damage levels. The concept of community social vulnerability has been widely used to explain many aspects of natural disasters. Nevertheless, how communities are vulnerable has been less fully examined. Community resilience has been conceptualized as a protective factor against negative impacts from disasters, however, how community resilience buffers the effects of vulnerability is not yet known. Because housing recovery is a dynamic social and economic process that varies according to context, this study examined the path from community vulnerability and resilience to housing recovery looking at both community characteristics and policy interventions. Sample/Methods: This retrospective longitudinal case study compared a literature-identified set of pre-disaster community characteristics, the effects of multiple public policy programs, and a set of time-variant community resilience indicators to changes in housing stock (operationally defined by percent of building permits to total occupied housing units/households) between 2010 and 2014, two years before and after Hurricane Sandy. The sample consisted of 51 municipalities in the nine counties in which between 4% and 58% of housing units suffered either major or severe damage. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to determine the path from vulnerability to the housing recovery, via multiple public programs, separately and as a whole, and via the community resilience indicators. The spatial analytical tool ArcGIS 10.2 was used to show the spatial relations between housing recovery patterns and community vulnerability and resilience. Findings: Holding damage levels constant, communities with higher proportions of Hispanic households had significantly lower levels of housing recovery while communities with households with an adult >age 65 had significantly higher levels of the housing recovery. The contrast was partly due to the different levels of total public support the two types of the community received. Further, while the public policy programs individually mediated the negative associations between African American and female-headed households and housing recovery, communities with larger proportions of African American, female-headed and Hispanic households were “vulnerable” to lower levels of housing recovery because they lacked sufficient public program support. Even so, higher employment rates and incomes buffered vulnerability to lower housing recovery. Because housing is the "wobbly pillar" of the welfare state, the housing needs of these particular groups should be more fully addressed by disaster policy.

Keywords: community social vulnerability, community resilience, hurricane, public policy

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Authors: Kouassi Louis Kra

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The nearshore deep-water gravity flow deposits in the Northern steep slope of Dongying depression, Bohai Bay basin, have been acknowledged as important reservoirs in the rift lacustrine basin. These deep strata term as coarse clastic sediment, deposit at the root of the slope have complex depositional processes and involve wide diagenetic events which made high-quality reservoir prediction to be complex. Based on the integrated study of seismic interpretation, sedimentary analysis, petrography, cores samples, wireline logging data, 3D seismic and lithological data, the reservoir formation mechanism deciphered. The Geoframe software was used to analyze 3-D seismic data to interpret the stratigraphy and build a sequence stratigraphic framework. Thin section identification, point counts were performed to assess the reservoir characteristics. The software PetroMod 1D of Schlumberger was utilized for the simulation of burial history. CL and SEM analysis were performed to reveal diagenesis sequences. Backscattered electron (BSE) images were recorded for definition of the textural relationships between diagenetic phases. The result showed that the nearshore steep slope deposits mainly consist of conglomerate, gravel sandstone, pebbly sandstone and fine sandstone interbedded with mudstone. The reservoir is characterized by low-porosity and ultra-low permeability. The diagenesis reactions include compaction, precipitation of calcite, dolomite, kaolinite, quartz cement and dissolution of feldspars and rock fragment. The main types of reservoir space are primary intergranular pores, residual intergranular pores, intergranular dissolved pores, intergranular dissolved pores, and fractures. There are three obvious anomalous high-porosity zones in the reservoir. Overpressure and early hydrocarbon filling are the main reason for abnormal secondary pores development. Sedimentary facies control the formation of high-quality reservoir, oil and gas filling preserves secondary pores from late carbonate cementation.

Keywords: Bohai Bay, Dongying Sag, deep strata, formation mechanism, high-quality reservoir

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Authors: Sontana Mimapan, Phattarawadee Wattanasuntorn, Phanom Saijit

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Aflatoxin contamination in maize, one of several agriculture crops grown for livestock feeding, is still a problem throughout the world mainly under hot and humid weather conditions like Thailand. In this study Aspergillus flavus (A. Flavus), the key fungus for aflatoxin production especially aflatoxin B1 (AFB1), isolated from naturally infected maize were identified and characterized according to colony morphology and PCR using ITS, Beta-tubulin and calmodulin genes. The strains were analysed for the presence of four aflatoxigenic biosynthesis genes in relation to their capability to produce AFB1, Ver1, Omt1, Nor1, and aflR. Aflatoxin production was then confirmed using immunoaffinity column technique. A loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) was applied as an innovative technique for rapid detection of target nucleic acid. The reaction condition was optimized at 65C for 60 min. and calcein flurescent reagent was added before amplification. The LAMP results showed clear differences between positive and negative reactions in end point analysis under daylight and UV light by the naked eye. In daylight, the samples with AFB1 producing A. Flavus genes developed a yellow to green color, but those without the genes retained the orange color. When excited with UV light, the positive samples become visible by bright green fluorescence. LAMP reactions were positive after addition of purified target DNA until dilutions of 10⁻⁶. The reaction products were then confirmed and visualized with 1% agarose gel electrophoresis. In this regards, 50 maize samples were collected from dairy farms and tested for the presence of four aflatoxigenic biosynthesis genes using LAMP technique. The results were positive in 18 samples (36%) but negative in 32 samples (64%). All of the samples were rechecked by PCR and the results were the same as LAMP, indicating 100% specificity. Additionally, when compared with the immunoaffinity column-based aflatoxin analysis, there was a significant correlation between LAMP results and aflatoxin analysis (r= 0.83, P < 0.05) which suggested that positive maize samples were likely to be a high- risk feed. In conclusion, the LAMP developed in this study can provide a simple and rapid approach for detecting AFB1 producing A. Flavus genes from maize and appeared to be a promising tool for the prediction of potential aflatoxigenic risk in livestock feedings.

Keywords: Aflatoxin B1, Aspergillus flavus genes, maize, loop-mediated isothermal amplification

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Authors: Abdullah Almilaibary, Jeremy Jolley, Mark Hayter

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Background: Despite recent progress in enhancing the accessibility of HIV-related health services worldwide, opportunities to diagnose patients are often missed due to genuine barriers at different levels. The aim of the study is to explore the factors that affect the utilization of HIV testing services by young people aged 17-25 in Saudi Arabia. Methods: A non-experimental descriptive cross-sectional design was used to predict factors that influenced HIV testing among Umm- Al Qura University students aged 17-25 years. A newly developed self-completed online questionnaire was used and the study sample was drawn using a convenience sampling technique. The questionnaire consisted of 52 items divided into three scales: 12 items for HIV/AIDS-related knowledge, 3 items for risk perception, and 37 items for attitudes toward HIV testing. Five experts in the field of HIV/AIDS validated the contents of the questionnaire and agreed that the items included were related to the construct being measured. The reliability of the questionnaire was also assessed using a test/re-test strategy with 27 participants recruited from the population under study. The reliability assessment revealed that the questionnaire was consistent as Cronbach’s Alpha was 0.80 for HIV/ADS knowledge, 0.88 for risk perception and 0.78 for attitudes towards HIV testing. The data were collected between 14th of July and 14th of October 2014. Results: 394 participants completed the questionnaires: 116 (29.4%) male and 278 (70%) female. 50.5% of the participants were aged 20 to 22 years, 34.8% were 17-19 years and 14.7% were aged between 23-25 years; about 93% of the participants were single. Only 20 (6%) participants had previously been tested for HIV. The main reasons for not being tested for HIV were: exposure to HIV was considered unlikely (48%), HIV test was not offered (36%) and unawareness of HIV testing centres (16%). On HIV/AIDS-related knowledge, the male participants scored higher than the females as the mean score for males was (M = 6.4, SD = 2.4) while for females it was (M 5.7, SD 2.5). In terms of risk perception, female participants appeared to have lower levels of risk perception than male participants, with the mean score for males being (M 11.7, SD 2.5) and (M 10.5, SD 2.4) for females. The female participants showed slightly more positive attitudes towards HIV testing than male participants: the mean score for males was (M = 108.14, SD = 17.9) and was (M = 111.32, SD = 17.3) for females. Conclusions: The data reveal that misconceptions about HIV/AIDS in Saudi Arabia are still a challenge. Although the attitudes towards HIV testing were reasonably positive, the utilization of the HIV test was low. Thus, tailoring HIV/AIDS preventive strategies in Saudi Arabia should focus on the needs of young people and other high risk groups in the country.

Keywords: attitude toward hiv testing, hiv testing, hiv/aids related knowledge, risk perception

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Authors: D. Muyama, M. Luyiga, P. Buyungo, D. Chemonges, M. Namukwaya, L. Ssekabembe, B. Lukwago, D. Kyamagwa

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Context: The study focuses on the sustainability of health interventions in Uganda, particularly in the private sector, beyond donor-funded project periods. The Population Services International (PSI) implemented the Women Health Project (WHP) to ensure continued access to quality family planning, cervical cancer screening, and post-abortion care services through private clinics. Research Aim: The aim of the study is to assess the continued access to quality family planning, cervical cancer screening, and post-abortion care services through the private sector after the closure or reduction in funding of the WHP. Methodology: PSI trained and mentored 83 clinics to establish functional systems in self-regulatory quality improvement, supply chain, referral, and demand creation. The clinics were also connected to the national reporting system and utilized Ministry of Health reporting tools. An assessment tool with six criteria was designed and used to evaluate the progress of the clinics. Clinics scoring 75% and above were considered independent and graduated from the program. Findings: Out of the 83 private clinics, 56 successfully met the graduation criteria and graduated from the program, while 25 lost interest and were gradually dropped. Two clinics failed to achieve the criteria due to leadership challenges. The 59 graduating clinics continued to provide high-quality family planning services, including IUD, implant, Depo-Provera, oral contraceptives, and post-abortion care. All graduating clinics were reassessed and found to still be capable of offering services, attributing their success to government stock availability and acquired skills through mentorships. The clinics expressed appreciation to PSI for the sustainable plan that allowed them to operate beyond the project period. Theoretical Importance: This study contributes to the understanding of sustainability planning and the importance of clinic owners' attitudes and buy-in for continued service provision. It emphasizes the implementation of sustainability plans through existing structures to leverage available resources and ensure continuity of care. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: The study collected data through the assessment tool that evaluated the progress of clinics based on the established criteria. The tool was scored out of 100%, and clinics scoring above 75% were deemed independent. The findings were analyzed quantitatively to determine the success rate of clinics in meeting the graduation criteria. Questions Addressed: The study addresses the question of whether private clinics in Uganda can sustain the provision of family planning, cervical cancer screening, and post-abortion care services after the closure or reduction in funding of the WHP. Conclusion: The study concludes that the attitude and buy-in of clinic owners are essential for sustainability planning. Implementing sustainability plans through existing structures and leveraging available resources are crucial for the continuity of care after the end of a project or reduced funding. The findings highlight the importance of establishing sustainable plans to ensure continued access to essential health services beyond the project period. Contributions: This study contributes to the existing knowledge for programmers implementing or intending to implement donor-funded projects. It provides insights into designing sustainable plans that enable the independent operation of clinics even after the end of a project.

Keywords: graduation, family planning, systems strengthening, sustainability

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Authors: Stamatis Zoras, Vasilis Evagelopoulos, Theodoros Staurakas

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The association between elevated air pollution levels and extreme climate conditions (temperature, particulate matter, ozone levels, etc.) and mental consequences has been, recently, the focus of significant number of studies. It varies depending on the time of the year it occurs either during the hot period or cold periods but, specifically, when extreme air pollution and weather events are observed, e.g. air pollution episodes and persistent heatwaves. It also varies spatially due to different effects of air quality and climate extremes to human health when considering metropolitan or rural areas. An air pollutant concentration and a climate extreme are taking a different form of impact if the focus area is countryside or in the urban environment. In the built environment the climate extreme effects are driven through the formed microclimate which must be studied more efficiently. Variables such as biological, age groups etc may be implicated by different environmental factors such as increased air pollution/noise levels and overheating of buildings in comparison to rural areas. Gridded air quality and climate variables derived from the land surface observations network of West Macedonia in Greece will be analysed against mortality data in a spatial format in the region of West Macedonia. Artificial intelligence (AI) tools will be used for data correction and prediction of health deterioration with climatic conditions and air pollution at local scale. This would reveal the built environment implications against the countryside. The air pollution and climatic data have been collected from meteorological stations and span the period from 2000 to 2009. These will be projected against the mortality rates data in daily, monthly, seasonal and annual grids. The grids will be operated as AI-based warning models for decision makers in order to map the health conditions in rural and urban areas to ensure improved awareness of the healthcare system by taken into account the predicted changing climate conditions. Gridded data of climate conditions, air quality levels against mortality rates will be presented by AI-analysed gridded indicators of the implicated variables. An Al-based gridded warning platform at local scales is then developed for future system awareness platform for regional level.

Keywords: air quality, artificial inteligence, climatic conditions, mortality

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: Parisa Shirzadeh

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Drug delivery systems in which drugs are traditionally used, multi-stage and at specified intervals by patients, do not meet the needs of the world's up-to-date drug delivery. In today's world, we are dealing with a huge number of recombinant peptide and protean drugs and analogues of hormones in the body, most of which are made with genetic engineering techniques. Most of these drugs are used to treat critical diseases such as cancer. Due to the limitations of the traditional method, researchers sought to find ways to solve the problems of the traditional method to a large extent. Following these efforts, controlled drug release systems were introduced, which have many advantages. Using controlled release of the drug in the body, the concentration of the drug is kept at a certain level, and in a short time, it is done at a higher rate. Graphene is a natural material that is biodegradable, non-toxic, and natural compared to carbon nanotubes; its price is lower than carbon nanotubes and is cost-effective for industrialization. On the other hand, the presence of highly effective surfaces and wide surfaces of graphene plates makes it more effective to modify graphene than carbon nanotubes. Graphene oxide is often synthesized using concentrated oxidizers such as sulfuric acid, nitric acid, and potassium permanganate based on Hummer 1 method. In comparison with the initial graphene, the resulting graphene oxide is heavier and has carboxyl, hydroxyl, and epoxy groups. Therefore, graphene oxide is very hydrophilic and easily dissolves in water and creates a stable solution. On the other hand, because the hydroxyl, carboxyl, and epoxy groups created on the surface are highly reactive, they have the ability to work with other functional groups such as amines, esters, polymers, etc. Connect and bring new features to the surface of graphene. In fact, it can be concluded that the creation of hydroxyl groups, Carboxyl, and epoxy and in fact graphene oxidation is the first step and step in creating other functional groups on the surface of graphene. Chitosan is a natural polymer and does not cause toxicity in the body. Due to its chemical structure and having OH and NH groups, it is suitable for binding to graphene oxide and increasing its solubility in aqueous solutions. Graphene oxide (GO) has been modified by chitosan (CS) covalently, developed for control release of doxorubicin (DOX). In this study, GO is produced by the hummer method under acidic conditions. Then, it is chlorinated by oxalyl chloride to increase its reactivity against amine. After that, in the presence of chitosan, the amino reaction was performed to form amide transplantation, and the doxorubicin was connected to the carrier surface by π-π interaction in buffer phosphate. GO, GO-CS, and GO-CS-DOX characterized by FT-IR, RAMAN, TGA, and SEM. The ability to load and release is determined by UV-Visible spectroscopy. The loading result showed a high capacity of DOX absorption (99%) and pH dependence identified as a result of DOX release from GO-CS nanosheet at pH 5.3 and 7.4, which show a fast release rate in acidic conditions.

Keywords: graphene oxide, chitosan, nanosheet, controlled drug release, doxorubicin

Procedia PDF Downloads 94

Authors: Zeinab Yazdanfar, Dilan Robert, Daniel Lester, S. Setunge

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Scour has been identified as the most common threat to bridge stability worldwide. Traditionally, scour around bridge piers is calculated using the empirical approaches that have considerable limitations and are difficult to generalize. The multi-physic nature of scouring which involves turbulent flow, soil mechanics and solid-fluid interactions cannot be captured by simple empirical equations developed based on limited laboratory data. These limitations can be overcome by direct numerical modeling of coupled hydro-mechanical scour process that provides a robust prediction of bridge scour and valuable insights into the scour process. Several numerical models have been proposed in the literature for bridge scour estimation including Eulerian flow models and coupled Euler-Lagrange models incorporating an empirical sediment transport description. However, the contact forces between particles and the flow-particle interaction haven’t been taken into consideration. Incorporating collisional and frictional forces between soil particles as well as the effect of flow-driven forces on particles will facilitate accurate modeling of the complex nature of scour. In this study, a coupled Computational Fluid Dynamics and Discrete Element Model (CFD-DEM) has been developed to simulate the scour process that directly models the hydro-mechanical interactions between the sediment particles and the flowing water. This approach obviates the need for an empirical description as the fundamental fluid-particle, and particle-particle interactions are fully resolved. The sediment bed is simulated as a dense pack of particles and the frictional and collisional forces between particles are calculated, whilst the turbulent fluid flow is modeled using a Reynolds Averaged Navier Stocks (RANS) approach. The CFD-DEM model is validated against experimental data in order to assess the reliability of the CFD-DEM model. The modeling results reveal the criticality of particle impact on the assessment of scour depth which, to the authors’ best knowledge, hasn’t been considered in previous studies. The results of this study open new perspectives to the scour depth and time assessment which is the key to manage the failure risk of bridge infrastructures.

Keywords: bridge scour, discrete element method, CFD-DEM model, multi-phase model

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: K. Rawojć, J. Miszczyk, A. Możdżeń, A. Panek, J. Swakoń, M. Rydygier

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Due to the mitotic delay, poor mitotic index and disappearance of lymphocytes from peripheral blood circulation, assessing the DNA damage after high dose exposure is less effective. Conventional chromosome aberration analysis or cytokinesis-blocked micronucleus assay do not provide an accurate dose estimation or radiosensitivity prediction in doses higher than 6.0 Gy. For this reason, there is a need to establish reliable methods allowing analysis of biological effects after exposure in high dose range i.e., during particle radiotherapy. Lately, Premature Chromosome Condensation (PCC) has become an important method in high dose biodosimetry and a promising treatment modality to cancer patients. The aim of the study was to evaluate the usefulness of drug-induced PCC scoring procedure in an experimental mode, where 100 G2/M cells were analyzed in different dose ranges. To test the consistency of obtained results, scoring was performed by 3 independent persons in the same mode and following identical scoring criteria. Whole-body exposure was simulated in an in vitro experiment by irradiating whole blood collected from healthy donors with 60 MeV protons and 250 keV X-rays, in the range of 4.0 – 20.0 Gy. Drug-induced PCC assay was performed on human peripheral blood lymphocytes (HPBL) isolated after in vitro exposure. Cells were cultured for 48 hours with PHA. Then to achieve premature condensation, calyculin A was added. After Giemsa staining, chromosome spreads were photographed and manually analyzed by scorers. The dose-effect curves were derived by counting the excess chromosome fragments. The results indicated adequate dose estimates for the whole-body exposure scenario in the high dose range for both studied types of radiation. Moreover, compared results revealed no significant differences between scores, which has an important meaning in reducing the analysis time. These investigations were conducted as a part of an extended examination of 60 MeV protons from AIC-144 isochronous cyclotron, at the Institute of Nuclear Physics in Kraków, Poland (IFJ PAN) by cytogenetic and molecular methods and were partially supported by grant DEC-2013/09/D/NZ7/00324 from the National Science Centre, Poland.

Keywords: cell response to radiation exposure, drug induced premature chromosome condensation, premature chromosome condensation procedure, proton therapy

Procedia PDF Downloads 317

Authors: Victor Lopez-Richard, Rafael Schio Wengenroth Silva, Fabian Hartmann

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Memcomputing is a computational paradigm that combines information processing and storage on the same physical platform. Key elements for this topic are devices with an inherent memory, such as memristors, memcapacitors, and meminductors. Despite the widespread emergence of memory effects in various solid systems, a clear understanding of the basic microscopic mechanisms that trigger them is still a puzzling task. We report basic ingredients of the theory of solid-state transport, intrinsic to a wide range of mechanisms, as sufficient conditions for a memristive response that points to the natural emergence of memory. This emergence should be discernible under an adequate set of driving inputs, as highlighted by our theoretical prediction and general common trends can be thus listed that become a rule and not the exception, with contrasting signatures according to symmetry constraints, either built-in or induced by external factors at the microscopic level. Explicit analytical figures of merit for the memory modulation of the conductance are presented, unveiling very concise and accessible correlations between general intrinsic microscopic parameters such as relaxation times, activation energies, and efficiencies (encountered throughout various fields in Physics) with external drives: voltage pulses, temperature, illumination, etc. These building blocks of memory can be extended to a vast universe of materials and devices, with combinations of parallel and independent transport channels, providing an efficient and unified physical explanation for a wide class of resistive memory devices that have emerged in recent years. Its simplicity and practicality have also allowed a direct correlation with reported experimental observations with the potential of pointing out the optimal driving configurations. The main methodological tools used to combine three quantum transport approaches, Drude-like model, Landauer-Buttiker formalism, and field-effect transistor emulators, with the microscopic characterization of nonequilibrium dynamics. Both qualitative and quantitative agreements with available experimental responses are provided for validating the main hypothesis. This analysis also shades light on the basic universality of complex natural impedances of systems out of equilibrium and might help pave the way for new trends in the area of memory formation as well as in its technological applications.

Keywords: memories, memdevices, memristors, nonequilibrium states

Procedia PDF Downloads 68

Authors: Tomilola J. Ajayi

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A category of nanovalves system containing the α-cyclodextrin (α-CD) ring on a stalk tethered to the pores of mesoporous silica nanoparticles (MSN) is theoretically and computationally modelled. This functions to control opening and blocking of the MSN pores for efficient targeted drug release system. Modeling of the nanovalves is based on the interaction between α-CD and the stalk (p-anisidine) in relation to pH variation. Conformational analysis was carried out prior to the formation of the inclusion complex, to find the global minimum of both neutral and protonated stalk. B3LYP/6-311G**(d, p) basis set was employed to attain all theoretically possible conformers of the stalk. Six conformers were taken into considerations, and the dihedral angle (θ) around the reference atom (N17) of the p-anisidine stalk was scanned from 0° to 360° at 5° intervals. The most stable conformer was obtained at a dihedral angle of 85.3° and was fully optimized at B3LYP/6-311G**(d, p) level of theory. The most stable conformer obtained from conformational analysis was used as the starting structure to create the inclusion complexes. 9 complexes were formed by moving the neutral guest into the α-CD cavity along the Z-axis in 1 Å stepwise while keeping the distance between dummy atom and OMe oxygen atom on the stalk restricted. The dummy atom and the carbon atoms on α-CD structure were equally restricted for orientation A (see Scheme 1). The generated structures at each step were optimized with B3LYP/6-311G**(d, p) methods to determine their energy minima. Protonation of the nitrogen atom on the stalk occurs at acidic pH, leading to unsatisfactory host-guest interaction in the nanogate; hence there is dethreading. High required interaction energy and conformational change are theoretically established to drive the release of α-CD at a certain pH. The release was found to occur between pH 5-7 which agreed with reported experimental results. In this study, we applied the theoretical model for the prediction of the experimentally observed pH-responsive nanovalves which enables blocking, and opening of mesoporous silica nanoparticles pores for targeted drug release system. Our results show that two major factors are responsible for the cargo release at acidic pH. The higher interaction energy needed for the complex/nanovalve formation to exist after protonation as well as conformational change upon protonation are driving the release due to slight pH change from 5 to 7.

Keywords: nanovalves, nanogate, mesoporous silica nanoparticles, cargo

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: Mustarakh Gelfi, Tiedo Vellinga, Poonam Taneja, Delon Hamonangan

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The development of New Priok/Kalibaru as an expansion terminal of the old port has been being done by IPC (Indonesia Port Cooperation) together with the subsidiary company, Port Developer (PT Pengembangan Pelabuhan Indonesia). As stated in the master plan, from 2 phases that had been proposed, phase I has shown its form and even Container Terminal I has been operated in 2016. It was planned principally, the development will be divided into Phase I (2013-2018) consist of 3 container terminals and 2 product terminals and Phase II (2018-2023) consist of 4 container terminals. In fact, the master plan has to be changed due to some major uncertainties which were escaped in prediction. This study is focused on the design scenario of phase II (2035- onwards) to deal with future uncertainty. The outcome is the robust design of phase II of the Kalibaru Terminal taking into account the future changes. Flexibility has to be a major goal in such a large infrastructure project like New Priok in order to deal and manage future uncertainty. The phasing of project needs to be adapted and re-look frequently before being irrelevant to future challenges. One of the frameworks that have been developed by an expert in port planning is Adaptive Port Planning (APP) with scenario-based planning. The idea behind APP framework is the adaptation that might be needed at any moment as an answer to a challenge. It is a continuous procedure that basically aims to increase the lifespan of waterborne transport infrastructure by increasing flexibility in the planning, contracting and design phases. Other methods used in this study are brainstorming with the port authority, desk study, interview and site visit to the real project. The result of the study is expected to be the insight for the port authority of Tanjung Priok over the future look and how it will impact the design of the port. There will be guidelines to do the design in an uncertain environment as well. Solutions of flexibility can be divided into: 1 - Physical solutions, all the items related hard infrastructure in the projects. The common things in this type of solution are using modularity, standardization, multi-functional, shorter and longer design lifetime, reusability, etc. 2 - Non-physical solutions, usually related to the planning processes, decision making and management of the projects. To conclude, APP framework seems quite robust to deal with the problem of designing phase II of New Priok Project for such a long period.

Keywords: Indonesia port, port's design, port planning, scenario-based planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 213

Authors: G. Kiran Kumar, K. Padmaja

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The rise of urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) is an important urban phenomenon that needs to be well understood before we pronounce a verdict whether it is beneficial or not. The challenge of supply of safe and nutritious food is faced by urban inhabitants. The definition of urban and peri-urban varies from city to city depending on the local policies framed with a view to bring regulated urban habitations as part of governance. Expansion of cities and the blurring of boundaries between urban and rural areas make it difficult to define peri-urban agriculture. The problem is further exacerbated by the fact that definition adopted in one region may not fit in the other. On the other hand the proportion of urban population is on the rise vis-à-vis rural. The rise of UPA does not promise that the food requirements of cities can be entirely met from this practice, since availability of enormous amounts of spaces on rooftops and vacant plots is impossible for raising crops. However, UPA reduces impact of price volatility, particularly for vegetables, which relatively have a longer shelf life. UPA improves access to fresh, nutritious and safe food for the urban poor. UPA provides employment to food handlers and traders in the supply chain. UPA can pose environmental and health risks from inappropriate agricultural practices; increased competition for land, water and energy; alter the ecological landscape and make it vulnerable to increased pollution. The present work is based on case studies in peri-urban agriculture in Hyderabad, India and relies on secondary data. This paper tries to analyze the need for more intensive production technologies without affecting the environment. An optimal solution in terms of urban-rural linkages has to be devised. There is a need to develop a spatial vision and integrate UPA in urban planning in a harmonious manner. Zoning of peri-urban areas for agriculture, milk and poultry production is an essential step to preserve the traditional nurturing character of these areas. Urban local bodies in conjunction with Departments of Agriculture and Horticulture can provide uplift to existing UPA models, without which the UPA can develop into a haphazard phenomenon and add to the increasing list of urban challenges. Land to be diverted for peri-urban agriculture may render the concept of urban and peri-urban forestry ineffective. This paper suggests that UPA may be practiced for high value vegetables which can be cultivated under protected conditions and are better resilient to climate change. UPA can provide models for climate resilient agriculture in urban areas which can be replicated in rural areas. Production of organic farm produce is another option for promote UPA owing to the proximity to informed consumers and access to markets within close range. Waste lands in peri-urban areas can be allotted to unemployed rural youth with the support of Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) and used for UPA. This can serve the purposes of putting wastelands to food production, enhancing employment opportunities and enhancing access to fresh produce for urban consumers.

Keywords: environment, food security, urban and peri-urban agriculture, zoning

Procedia PDF Downloads 293

Authors: Shunhong Qi, Hui Tian

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Triggered off by the forthcoming 2022 Winter Olympics, ski centers are blossoming in China, the number being 742 in 2018. Although the number of skier visits of ski resorts soared to 19.7 million in 2018, one-time skiers account for a considerable portion therein. In light of the extremely low return rates and skiing penetration level (0.5%) of leisure skiing in China, this study proposes and tests a leisure ski service performance framework which assesses the ski resorts’ service quality, skier satisfaction, as well as their impact on skiers’ behavioral intentions, with an aim to assess the success of ski resorts and provide suggestions for improvement. Three self-administered surveys and 16 interviews were conducted upon a convenience sample of leisure skiers in two major ski destinations within two hours’ drive from Beijing – Nanshan and Jundushan ski resorts. Of the 680 questionnaires distributed, 416 usable copies were returned, the response rate being 61.2%. The questionnaire used for the study was developed based on the existing literature of 'push' factors of skiers (intrinsic desire) and 'pull' factors (attractiveness of a destination), as well as leisure sport satisfaction. The scale comprises four parts: skiers’ demographic profiles, their perceived service quality (including ski resorts’ infrastructure, expense, safety and comfort, convenience, daily needs support, skill development support, and accessibility), their overall levels of satisfaction (satisfaction with the service and the experience), and their behavioral intentions (including loyalty, future visitation and greater tolerance of price increases). Skiers’ demographic profiles show that among the 220 males and 196 females in the survey, a vast majority of the skiers are age 17-39 (87.2%). 64.7% are not married, and nearly half (48.3%) of the skiers have a monthly family income exceeding 10,000 yuan (USD 1,424), and 80% are beginners or intermediate skiers. The regression examining the influence of service quality on skier satisfaction reveals that service quality accounts for 44.4% of the variance in skier satisfaction, the variables of safety and comfort, expense, skill development support, and accessibility contributing significantly in descending order. Another regression analyzing the influence of service quality as well as skier satisfaction on their behavioral intentions shows that service quality and skier satisfaction account for 39.1% of the variance in skiers’ behavioral intentions, and the significant predictors are skier satisfaction, safety and comfort, expense, and accessibility, in descending order, though a comparison between groups also indicates that for expert skiers, the significant variables are skier satisfaction, skill development support, safety, and comfort. Suggestions are thus made for ski resorts and other stakeholders to improve skier satisfaction and increase visitation: developing diversified ski courses to meet the demands of skiers of different skiing skills and to reduce crowding, adopting enough chairlifts and magic carpets, reinforcing safety measures and medical force; further exploring their various resources and lower the skiing expense on ski pass, equipment renting, accommodation and dining; adding more bus lines and/or develop platforms for skiers’ car-pooling, and offering diversified skiing activities with local flavors for better entertainment.

Keywords: behavioral intentions, leisure skiing, service quality, skier satisfaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 70

Authors: Nathaniel Bayode Eniolorunda, Murtala Abubakar Gada, Sheikh Danjuma Abubakar

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The challenge of erosion in the study area is persistent, suggesting the need for a better understanding of the mechanisms that drive it. Thus, the study evolved a predictive erosion model (RUSLE_Sok), deploying Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) tools. The nature and pattern of the factors of erosion were characterized, while soil losses were quantified. Factors’ impacts were also measured, and the morphometry of gullies was described. Data on the five factors of RUSLE and distances to settlements, rivers and roads (K, R, LS, P, C, DS DRd and DRv) were combined and processed following standard RS and GIS algorithms. Harmonized World Soil Data (HWSD), Shuttle Radar Topographical Mission (SRTM) image, Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), Sentinel-2 image accessed and processed within the Google Earth Engine, road network and settlements were the data combined and calibrated into the factors for erosion modeling. A gully morphometric study was conducted at some purposively selected sites. Factors of soil erosion showed low, moderate, to high patterns. Soil losses ranged from 0 to 32.81 tons/ha/year, classified into low (97.6%), moderate (0.2%), severe (1.1%) and very severe (1.05%) forms. The multiple regression analysis shows that factors statistically significantly predicted soil loss, F (8, 153) = 55.663, p < .0005. Except for the C-Factor with a negative coefficient, all other factors were positive, with contributions in the order of LS>C>R>P>DRv>K>DS>DRd. Gullies are generally from less than 100m to about 3km in length. Average minimum and maximum depths at gully heads are 0.6 and 1.2m, while those at mid-stream are 1 and 1.9m, respectively. The minimum downstream depth is 1.3m, while that for the maximum is 4.7m. Deeper gullies exist in proximity to rivers. With minimum and maximum gully elevation values ranging between 229 and 338m and an average slope of about 3.2%, the study area is relatively flat. The study concluded that major erosion influencers in the study area are topography and vegetation cover and that the RUSLE_Sok well predicted soil loss more effectively than ordinary RUSLE. The adoption of conservation measures such as tree planting and contour ploughing on sloppy farmlands was recommended.

Keywords: RUSLE_Sok, Sokoto, google earth engine, sentinel-2, erosion

Procedia PDF Downloads 39

Authors: Jean De Dieu Ayabagabo, Paul A.Onjoro, Karubiu P. Migwi, Marie C. Dusingize

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This study investigated the effects of feed on milk yield and quality through feed monitoring and quality assessment, and the consequent enteric methane gas emissions from smallholder dairy farms in drier areas of Rwanda, using the Tier II approach for four seasons in three zones, namely; Mayaga and peripheral Bugesera (MPB), Eastern Savanna and Central Bugesera (ESCB), and Eastern plateau (EP). The study was carried out using 186 dairy cows with a mean live weight of 292 Kg in three communal cowsheds. The milk quality analysis was carried out on 418 samples. Methane emission was estimated using prediction equations. Data collected were subjected to ANOVA. The dry matter intake was lower (p<0.05) in the long dry season (7.24 Kg), with the ESCB zone having the highest value of 9.10 Kg, explained by the practice of crop-livestock integration agriculture in that zone. The Dry matter digestibility varied between seasons and zones, ranging from 52.5 to 56.4% for seasons and from 51.9 to 57.5% for zones. The daily protein supply was higher (p<0.05) in the long rain season with 969 g. The mean daily milk production of lactating cows was 5.6 L with a lower value (p<0.05) during the long dry season (4.76 L), and the MPB zone having the lowest value of 4.65 L. The yearly milk production per cow was 1179 L. The milk fat varied from 3.79 to 5.49% with a seasonal and zone variation. No variation was observed with milk protein. The seasonal daily methane emission varied from 150 g for the long dry season to 174 g for the long rain season (p<0.05). The rain season had the highest methane emission as it is associated with high forage intake. The mean emission factor was 59.4 Kg of methane/year. The present EFs were higher than the default IPPC value of 41 Kg from developing countries in African, the Middle East, and other tropical regions livestock EFs using Tier I approach due to the higher live weight in the current study. The methane emission per unit of milk production was lower in the EP zone (46.8 g/L) due to the feed efficiency observed in that zone. Farmers should use high-quality feeds to increase the milk yield and reduce the methane gas produced per unit of milk. For an accurate assessment of the methane produced from dairy farms, there is a need for the use of the Life Cycle Assessment approach that considers all the sources of emissions.

Keywords: footprint, forage, girinka, tier

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Christabel Ihedike, John Mooney, Monica Price

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Summary: This study aims to critically evaluate effect of photochemical smog on respiratory health in Nigeria. Cohort of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients was recruited from two large hospitals in Abuja Nigeria. Respiratory health questionnaires, daily diaries, dyspnoea scale and lung function measurement were used to obtain health data and investigate the relationship with air quality data (principally ozone, NOx and particulate pollution). Concentrations of air pollutants were higher than WHO and Nigerian air quality standard. The result suggests a correlation between measured air quality and exacerbation of respiratory illness. Introduction: Photochemical smog is a significant health challenge in most cities and its effect on respiratory health is well acknowledged. This type of pollution is most harmful to the elderly, children and those with underlying respiratory disease. This study aims to investigate impact of increasing temperature and photo-chemically generated secondary air pollutants on respiratory health in Abuja Nigeria. Method and Result: Health data was collected using spirometry to measure lung function on routine attendance at the clinic, daily diaries kept by patients and information obtained using respiratory questionnaire. Questionnaire responses (obtained using an adapted and internally validated version of St George’s Hospital Respiratory Questionnaire), shows that ‘time of wheeze’ showed an association with participants activities: 30% had worse wheeze in the morning: 10% cannot shop, 15% take long-time to get washed, 25% walk slower, 15% if hurry have to stop and 5% cannot take-bath. There was also a decrease in Forced expiratory volume in the first second and Forced Vital Capacity, and daily change in the afternoon–morning may be associated with the concentration level of pollutants. Also, dyspnoea symptoms recorded that 60% of patients were on grade 3, 25% grade 2 and 15% grade 1. Daily frequency of the number of patients in the cohort that cough /brought sputum is 78%. Air pollution in the city is higher than Nigerian and WHO standards with NOx and PM10 concentrations of 693.59ug/m-3 and 748ugm-3 being measured respectively. The result shows that air pollution may increase occurrence and exacerbation of respiratory disease. Conclusion: High temperature and local climatic conditions in urban Nigeria encourages formation of Ozone, the major constituent of photochemical smog, resulting also in the formation of secondary air pollutants associated with health challenges. In this study we confirm the likely potency of the pattern of secondary air pollution in exacerbating COPD symptoms in vulnerable patient group in urban Nigeria. There is need for better regulation and measures to reduce ozone, particularly when local climatic conditions favour development of photochemical smog in such settings. Climate change and likely increasing temperatures add impetus and urgency for better air quality standards and measures (traffic-restrictions and emissions standards) in developing world settings such as Nigeria.

Keywords: Abuja-Nigeria, effect, photochemical smog, respiratory health

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: Jose CanIzares

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In the last decades, resilience has received much attention in relation to understanding and managing new forms of risk, especially in the context of urban adaptation to climate change. There are abundant concerns, however, on how to best interpret resilience and related ideas, and on whether they can guide ethically appropriate risk-related or adaptation efforts. Narrative creation and framing are critical steps in shaping public discussion and policy in large-scale interventions, since they favor or inhibit early decision and interpretation habits, which can be morally sensitive and then become persistent on time. This article adds to such framing process by contesting a conventional narrative on resilience and offering an alternative one. Conventionally, present ideas on resilience are traced to the work of ecologist C. S. Holling, especially to his article Resilience and Stability in Ecosystems. This article is usually portrayed as a contribution of complex systems thinking to theoretical ecology, where Holling appeals to resilience in order to challenge received views on ecosystem stability and the diversity-stability hypothesis. In this regard, resilience is construed as a “purely scientific”, precise and descriptive concept, denoting a complex property that allows ecosystems to persist, or to maintain functions, after disturbance. Yet, these formal features of resilience supposedly changed with Holling’s later work in the 90s, where, it is argued, Holling begun to use resilience as a more pragmatic “boundary term”, aimed at unifying transdisciplinary research about risks, ecological or otherwise, and at articulating public debate and governance strategies on the issue. In the conventional story, increased vagueness and degrees of normativity are the price to pay for this conceptual shift, which has made the term more widely usable, but also incompatible with scientific purposes and morally problematic (if not completely objectionable). This paper builds on a detailed analysis of Holling’s early work to propose an alternative narrative. The study will show that the “complexity turn” has often entangled theoretical and pragmatic aims. Accordingly, Holling’s primary aim was to fight what he termed “pathologies of natural resource management” or “pathologies of command and control management”, and so, the terms of his reform of ecosystem science are partly subordinate to the details of his proposal for reforming the management sciences. As regards resilience, Holling used it as a polysemous, ambiguous and normative term: sometimes, as an instrumental value that is closely related to various stability concepts; other times, and more crucially, as an intrinsic value and a tool for attacking efficiency and instrumentalism in management. This narrative reveals the limitations of its conventional alternative and has several practical advantages. It captures well the structure and purposes of Holling’s project, and the various roles of resilience in it. It helps to link Holling’s early work with other philosophical and ideological shifts at work in the 70s. It highlights the currency of Holling’s early work for present research and action in fields such as risk and climate adaptation. And it draws attention to morally relevant aspects of resilience that the conventional narrative neglects.

Keywords: resilience, complexity turn, risk management, positivistic, framing

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Alvaro Figueira, Bruno Cabral

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Nowadays, students are used to be assessed through an online platform. Educators have stepped up from a period in which they endured the transition from paper to digital. The use of a diversified set of question types that range from quizzes to open questions is currently common in most university courses. In many courses, today, the evaluation methodology also fosters the students’ online participation in forums, the download, and upload of modified files, or even the participation in group activities. At the same time, new pedagogy theories that promote the active participation of students in the learning process, and the systematic use of problem-based learning, are being adopted using an eLearning system for that purpose. However, although there can be a lot of feedback from these activities to student’s, usually it is restricted to the assessments of online well-defined tasks. In this article, we propose an automatic system that informs students of abnormal deviations of a 'correct' learning path in the course. Our approach is based on the fact that by obtaining this information earlier in the semester, may provide students and educators an opportunity to resolve an eventual problem regarding the student’s current online actions towards the course. Our goal is to prevent situations that have a significant probability to lead to a poor grade and, eventually, to failing. In the major learning management systems (LMS) currently available, the interaction between the students and the system itself is registered in log files in the form of registers that mark beginning of actions performed by the user. Our proposed system uses that logged information to derive new one: the time each student spends on each activity, the time and order of the resources used by the student and, finally, the online resource usage pattern. Then, using the grades assigned to the students in previous years, we built a learning dataset that is used to feed a machine learning meta classifier. The produced classification model is then used to predict the grades a learning path is heading to, in the current year. Not only this approach serves the teacher, but also the student to receive automatic feedback on her current situation, having past years as a perspective. Our system can be applied to online courses that integrate the use of an online platform that stores user actions in a log file, and that has access to other student’s evaluations. The system is based on a data mining process on the log files and on a self-feedback machine learning algorithm that works paired with the Moodle LMS.

Keywords: data mining, e-learning, grade prediction, machine learning, student learning path

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Authors: Mariamawit T. Belete

Abstract:

Cereal production and marketing are the means of livelihood for millions of households in Ethiopia. However, cereal production is constrained by technical and socio-economic factors. Among the technical factors, cereal crop diseases are the major contributing factors to the low yield. The aim of this research is to develop an integration of data mining and knowledge based system for sorghum anthracnose disease diagnosis that assists agriculture experts and development agents to make timely decisions. Anthracnose diagnosing systems gather information from Melkassa agricultural research center and attempt to score anthracnose severity scale. Empirical research is designed for data exploration, modeling, and confirmatory procedures for testing hypothesis and prediction to draw a sound conclusion. WEKA (Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis) was employed for the modeling. Knowledge based system has come across a variety of approaches based on the knowledge representation method; case-based reasoning (CBR) is one of the popular approaches used in knowledge-based system. CBR is a problem solving strategy that uses previous cases to solve new problems. The system utilizes hidden knowledge extracted by employing clustering algorithms, specifically K-means clustering from sampled anthracnose dataset. Clustered cases with centroid value are mapped to jCOLIBRI, and then the integrator application is created using NetBeans with JDK 8.0.2. The important part of a case based reasoning model includes case retrieval; the similarity measuring stage, reuse; which allows domain expert to transfer retrieval case solution to suit for the current case, revise; to test the solution, and retain to store the confirmed solution to the case base for future use. Evaluation of the system was done for both system performance and user acceptance. For testing the prototype, seven test cases were used. Experimental result shows that the system achieves an average precision and recall values of 70% and 83%, respectively. User acceptance testing also performed by involving five domain experts, and an average of 83% acceptance is achieved. Although the result of this study is promising, however, further study should be done an investigation on hybrid approach such as rule based reasoning, and pictorial retrieval process are recommended.

Keywords: sorghum anthracnose, data mining, case based reasoning, integration

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Authors: Natalia Kartushina

Abstract:

Foreign (second) language (L2) learning is highly promoted in modern society. Students are encouraged to study abroad (SA) to achieve the most effective learning outcomes. However, L2 learning has side effects for native language (L1) production, as L1 sounds might show a drift from the L1 norms towards those of the L2, and this, even after a short period of L2 learning. L1 assimilatory drift has been attributed to a strong perceptual association between similar L1 and L2 sounds in the mind of L2 leaners; thus, a change in the production of an L2 target leads to the change in the production of the related L1 sound. However, nowadays, it is quite common that speakers acquire two languages from birth, as, for example, it is the case for many bilingual communities (e.g., Basque and Spanish in the Basque Country). Yet, it remains to be established how FL learning affects native production in individuals who have two native languages, i.e., in simultaneous or very early bilinguals. Does FL learning (here a third language, L3) affect bilinguals’ both languages or only one? What factors determine which of the bilinguals’ languages is more susceptible to change? The current study examines the effects of L3 (English) learning on the production of vowels in the two native languages of simultaneous Spanish-Basque bilingual adolescents enrolled into the Erasmus SA English program. Ten bilingual speakers read five Spanish and Basque consonant-vowel-consonant-vowel words two months before their SA and the next day after their arrival back to Spain. Each word contained the target vowel in the stressed syllable and was repeated five times. Acoustic analyses measuring vowel openness (F1) and backness (F2) were performed. Two possible outcomes were considered. First, we predicted that L3 learning would affect the production of only one language and this would be the language that would be used the most in contact with English during the SA period. This prediction stems from the results of recent studies showing that early bilinguals have separate phonological systems for each of their languages; and that late FL learner (as it is the case of our participants), who tend to use their L1 in language-mixing contexts, have more L2-accented L1 speech. The second possibility stated that L3 learning would affect both of the bilinguals’ languages in line with the studies showing that bilinguals’ L1 and L2 phonologies interact and constantly co-influence each other. The results revealed that speakers who used both languages equally often (balanced users) showed an F1 drift in both languages toward the F1 of the English vowel space. Unbalanced speakers, however, showed a drift only in the less used language. The results are discussed in light of recent studies suggesting that the amount of language use is a strong predictor of the authenticity in speech production with less language use leading to more foreign-accented speech and, eventually, to language attrition.

Keywords: language-contact, multilingualism, phonetic drift, bilinguals' production

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