Search results for: sales process ARIMA models

Authors: Ren Moses, Emmanuel Kidando, Eren Ozguven, Yassir Abdelrazig

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This study applied traffic speed and occupancy to develop clustering models that identify different traffic conditions. Particularly, these models are based on the Dirichlet Process Mixture of Generalized Linear regression (DML) and change-point regression (CR). The model frameworks were implemented using 2015 historical traffic data aggregated at a 15-minute interval from an Interstate 295 freeway in Jacksonville, Florida. Using the deviance information criterion (DIC) to identify the appropriate number of mixture components, three traffic states were identified as free-flow, transitional, and congested condition. Results of the DML revealed that traffic occupancy is statistically significant in influencing the reduction of traffic speed in each of the identified states. Influence on the free-flow and the congested state was estimated to be higher than the transitional flow condition in both evening and morning peak periods. Estimation of the critical speed threshold using CR revealed that 47 mph and 48 mph are speed thresholds for congested and transitional traffic condition during the morning peak hours and evening peak hours, respectively. Free-flow speed thresholds for morning and evening peak hours were estimated at 64 mph and 66 mph, respectively. The proposed approaches will facilitate accurate detection and prediction of traffic congestion for developing effective countermeasures.

Keywords: traffic congestion, multistate speed distribution, traffic occupancy, Dirichlet process mixtures of generalized linear model, Bayesian change-point detection

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Authors: Zahreddine Hafsi, Manoranjan Mishra , Sami Elaoud

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Ensuring the maximum recovery rate of oil from reservoir rocks is a challenging task that requires preliminary numerical analysis of different techniques used to enhance the recovery process. After conventional oil recovery processes and in order to retrieve oil left behind after the primary recovery phase, water flooding in one of several techniques used for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). In this research work, EOR via water flooding is numerically modeled, and hydrodynamic instabilities resulted from immiscible oil-water flow in reservoir rocks are investigated. An oil reservoir is a porous medium consisted of many fractures of tiny dimensions. For modeling purposes, the oil reservoir is considered as a collection of capillary tubes which provides useful insights into how fluids behave in the reservoir pore spaces. Equations governing oil-water flow in oil reservoir rocks are developed and numerically solved following a finite element scheme. Numerical results are obtained using Comsol Multiphysics software. The two phase Darcy module of COMSOL Multiphysics allows modelling the imbibition process by the injection of water (as wetting phase) into an oil reservoir. Van Genuchten, Brooks Corey and Levrett models were considered as retention models and obtained flow configurations are compared, and the governing parameters are discussed. For the considered retention models it was found that onset of instabilities viz. fingering phenomenon is highly dependent on the capillary pressure as well as the boundary conditions, i.e., the inlet pressure and the injection velocity.

Keywords: capillary pressure, EOR process, immiscible flow, numerical modelling

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Authors: Ehsan Eshtehardian, Saeed Khodaverdi

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This paper surveys the studies on construction change and reveals some of the potential future works. A full-scale investigation of change literature, including change definitions, types, causes and effects, and change management systems, is accomplished to explore some of the coming change trends. It is tried to pick up the critical works in each section to deduct a true timeline of construction changes. The findings show that leaping from best practice guides in late 1990s and generic process models in the early 2000s to very advanced modeling environments in the mid-2000s and the early 2010s have made gaps along with opportunities for change researchers in order to develop some more easy and applicable models. Another finding is that there is a compelling similarity between the change and risk prediction models. Therefore, integrating these two concepts, specifically from proactive management point of view, may lead to a synergy and help project teams avoid rework. Also, the findings show that exploitation of cause-effect relationship models, in order to facilitate the dispute resolutions, seems to be an interesting field for future works.

Keywords: construction change, change management systems, dispute resolutions, change literature

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Authors: Tony Mann

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This paper sets out the case for involving and engaging employees/workers/stakeholders/staff in any significant change that is being considered by the senior executives of the organization. It establishes the rationale, the approach, the methodology of engagement and the benefits of a participative approach. It challenges the new norm of imposing change for fear of resistance and instead suggests that involving people has better outcomes and a longer-lasting impact. Various strategic models are introduced and illustrated to explain how the process can be most effective. The paper highlights one model in particular (the Process Iceberg® Organizational Change model) that has proven to be instrumental in developing effective change. Its use is demonstrated in its various forms and explains why so much change fails to address the key elements and how we can be more productive in managing change. ‘Participation’ in change is too often seen as negative, expensive and unwieldy. The paper aims to show that another model: UIA=O+E, can offset the difficulties and, in fact, produce much more positive and effective change.

Keywords: facilitation, stakeholders, buy-in, digital workshops

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Authors: Cody Stolle, Mojdeh Asadollahipajouh, Khaleb Pafford, Jada Iwuoha, Samantha White, Becky Mueller

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Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) are growing in sales and popularity in the United States as an alternative to traditional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). BEVs are generally heavier than corresponding models of ICEVs, with large battery packs located beneath the vehicle floorpan, a “skateboard” chassis, and have front and rear crush space available in the trunk and “frunk” or front trunk. The geometrical and frame differences between the vehicles may lead to incompatibilities with gasoline vehicles during vehicle-to-vehicle crashes as well as run-off-road crashes with roadside barriers, which were designed to handle lighter ICEVs with higher centers-of-mass and with dedicated structural chasses. Crash data were collected from 10 states spanning a five-year period between 2017 and 2021. Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) codes were processed with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) VIN decoder to extract BEV models from ICEV models. Crashes were filtered to isolate only vehicles produced between 2010 and 2021, and the crash circumstances (weather, time of day, maximum injury) were compared between BEVs and ICEVs. In Washington, 436,613 crashes were identified, which satisfied the selection criteria, and 3,371 of these crashes (0.77%) involved a BEV. The number of crashes which noted a fire were comparable between BEVs and ICEVs of similar model years (0.3% and 0.33%, respectively), and no differences were discernable for the time of day, weather conditions, road geometry, or other prevailing factors (e.g., run-off-road). However, crashes involving BEVs rose rapidly; 31% of all BEV crashes occurred in just 2021. Results indicate that BEVs are performing comparably to ICEVs, and events surrounding BEV crashes are statistically indistinguishable from ICEV crashes.

Keywords: battery-electric vehicles, transportation safety, infrastructure crashworthiness, run-off-road crashes, ev crash data analysis

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Authors: Richard Fairchild, Abdullah Al-Ghazali, Yilmaz Guney

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This study analyses the relationship between managerial overconfidence, dividends, and firm value by developing theoretical models that examine the condition under which managerial overconfident, dividends, and firm value may be positive or negative. Furthermore, the models incorporate moral hazard, in terms of managerial effort shirking, and the potential for the manager to choose negative NPV projects, due to private benefits. Our models demonstrate that overconfidence can lead to higher dividends (when the manager is overconfident about his current ability) or lower dividends (when the manager is overconfident about his future ability). The models also demonstrate that higher overconfidence may result in an increase or a decrease in firm value. Numerical examples are illustrated for both models which interestingly support the models’ propositions.

Keywords: behavioural corporate finance, dividend policy, overconfidence, moral hazard

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Authors: Ghanima Al-Sharrah, Haitham M. Lababidi, Yusuf I. Ali

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The main objective of the current work is to introduce sustainability factors in optimizing the supply chain model for process industries. The supply chain models are normally based on purely economic considerations related to costs and profits. To account for sustainability, two additional factors have been introduced; environment and risk. A supply chain for an entire petroleum organization has been considered for implementing and testing the proposed optimization models. The environmental and risk factors were introduced as indicators reflecting the anticipated impact of the optimal production scenarios on sustainability. The aggregation method used in extending the single objective function to multi-objective function is proven to be quite effective in balancing the contribution of each objective term. The results indicate that introducing sustainability factor would slightly reduce the economic benefit while improving the environmental and risk reduction performances of the process industries.

Keywords: environmental indicators, optimization, risk, supply chain

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Authors: Md. Abud Darda

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Different options for natural gas production in wide geographic areas may be described through diffusion of innovation models. This type of modeling approach provides an indirect estimate of an ultimately recoverable resource, URR, capture the quantitative effects of observed strategic interventions, and allow ex-ante assessments of future scenarios over time. In order to ensure a sustainable energy policy, it is important to forecast the availability of this natural resource. Considering a finite life cycle, in this paper we try to investigate the natural gas production of Myanmar and Algeria, two important natural gas provider in the world energy market. A number of homogeneous and heterogeneous diffusion models, with convenient extensions, have been used. Models validation has also been performed in terms of prediction capability.

Keywords: diffusion models, energy forecast, natural gas, nonlinear production

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Authors: Sawsan J. Al-Husseini, Talib A. Dosa

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Transformational leadership has been identified as the most important factor affecting innovation and knowledge sharing; it leads to increased goal-directed behavior exhibited by followers and thus to enhanced performance and innovation for the organization. However, there is a lack of models linking transformational leadership, knowledge sharing, and process innovation within higher education (HE) institutions in general within developing countries, particularly in Iraq. This research aims to examine the mediating role of knowledge sharing in the transformational leadership and process innovation relationship. A quantitative approach was taken and 254 usable questionnaires were collected from public HE institutions in Iraq. Structural equation modelling with AMOS 22 was used to analyze the causal relationships among factors. The research found that knowledge sharing plays a pivotal role in the relationship between transformational leadership and process innovation, and that transformational leadership would be ideal in an educational context, promoting knowledge sharing activities and influencing process innovation in the public HE in Iraq. The research has developed some guidelines for researchers as well as leaders and provided evidence to support the use of TL to increase process innovation within HE environment in developing countries, particularly in Iraq.

Keywords: transformational leadership, knowledge sharing, process innovation, structural equation modelling, developing countries

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Authors: Mst. Tuhin Akter, Sharun Akter Khushbu, S. M. Shaqib

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A real-time system architecture is highly effective for monitoring and detecting various damaged products or fruits that may deteriorate over time or become infected with diseases. Deep learning models have proven to be effective in building such architectures. However, building a deep learning model from scratch is a time-consuming and costly process. A more efficient solution is to utilize deep neural network (DNN) based transfer learning models in the real-time monitoring architecture. This study focuses on using a novel strawberry dataset to develop effective transfer learning models for the proposed real-time monitoring system architecture, specifically for evaluating and detecting strawberry freshness. Several state-of-the-art transfer learning models were employed, and the best performing model was found to be Xception, demonstrating higher performance across evaluation metrics such as accuracy, recall, precision, and F1-score.

Keywords: strawberry freshness evaluation, deep neural network, transfer learning, image augmentation

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Authors: Borzou Faramarzi, Farideh Azimi, Azam Gohardoust, Abbas Ghasemi Ghasemvand, Maryam Mirzaei, Mandana Amani

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In this study, attempts were made to examine and analyze the trend for rainfall changes in Kangan City, Booshehr Province, during the time span 1964 to 2003, using seven rainfall threshold indices based on 50 climate extremes indices approved by WMO–CCL/CLIVAR. These indices include days with heavy precipitations, days with rainfalls, frequency of rainfall threshold values, intensity of rainfall threshold values, percentage of rainfall threshold values, successive days of rainfall, and successive days with no precipitation. Results are indicative of the fact that Kangan City climatic conditions have become more dried than before. Indices days with heavy precipitations and days with rainfalls do not show a certain trend in Kangan City. Frequency, intensity, and percentage of rainfall threshold values in the station under investigation do not indicate a certain trend. In analysis of time series of rainfall extreme indices, generally, it was revealed that Kangan City is influenced by general factors of global warming. Calculation of values for the next 10 years based on ARIMA models demonstrates a continuation of warming trends in Kangan City. On the whole, rainfall conditions in Kangan City have experienced more dry periods compared to the past, the trend which is also observable for next 10 years.

Keywords: climatic indices, climate change, extreme temperature and precipitation, time series

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Authors: Saurav S. Rath, Birendra K. David

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Generic pharmaceutical industry has to operate in strict timelines of product development and scale-up from lab to plant. Hence, detailed product & process understanding and implementation of appropriate mechanistic modelling and Quality-by-design (QbD) approaches are imperative in the product life cycle. This work provides example cases of such efforts in topical dosage products. Topical products are typically in the form of emulsions, gels, thick suspensions or even simple solutions. The efficacy of such products is determined by characteristics like rheology and morphology. Defining, and scaling up the right manufacturing process with a given set of ingredients, to achieve the right product characteristics presents as a challenge to the process engineer. For example, the non-Newtonian rheology varies not only with CPPs and CMAs but also is an implicit function of globule size (CQA). Hence, this calls for various mechanistic models, to help predict the product behaviour. This paper focusses on such models obtained from computational fluid dynamics (CFD) coupled with population balance modelling (PBM) and constitutive models (like shear, energy density). In a special case of the use of high shear homogenisers (HSHs) for the manufacture of thick emulsions/gels, this work presents some findings on (i) scale-up algorithm for HSH using shear strain, a novel scale-up parameter for estimating mixing parameters, (ii) non-linear relationship between viscosity and shear imparted into the system, (iii) effect of hold time on rheology of product. Specific examples of how this approach enabled scale-up across 1L, 10L, 200L, 500L and 1000L scales will be discussed.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, morphology, quality-by-design, rheology

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Authors: Muhammad Arif Mahmood, Andrei C. Popescu, Mihai Oane, Diana Chioibascu, Carmen Ristoscu, Ion N. Mihailescu

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Powder flow and temperature distributions are recognized as influencing factors during laser melting deposition (LMD) process, that not only affect the consolidation rate but also characteristics of the deposited layers. Herewith, two simplified analytical models will be presented to simulate the powder flow with the inclusion of powder particles size distribution in Gaussian form, under three powder jet nozzles, and temperature analyses during LMD process. The output of the 1st model will serve as the input in the 2nd model. The models will be validated with experimental data, i.e., weight measurement method for powder particles distribution and infrared imaging for temperature analyses. This study will increase the cost-efficiency of the LMD process by adjustment of the operating parameters for reaching optimal powder debit and energy. This research has received funds under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 764935, from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program.

Keywords: laser additive manufacturing, powder particles size distribution in Gaussian form, powder stream distribution, temperature analyses

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Authors: Diego Tancara, Raul Coto, Ariel Norambuena, Hoseein T. Dinani, Felipe Fanchini

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Quantum machine learning is a growing research field that aims to perform machine learning tasks assisted by a quantum computer. Kernel-based quantum machine learning models are paradigmatic examples where the kernel involves quantum states, and the Gram matrix is calculated from the overlapping between these states. With the kernel at hand, a regular machine learning model is used for the learning process. In this paper we investigate the quantum support vector machine and quantum kernel ridge models to predict the degree of non-Markovianity of a quantum system. We perform digital quantum simulation of amplitude damping and phase damping channels to create our quantum dataset. We elaborate on different kernel functions to map the data and kernel circuits to compute the overlapping between quantum states. We observe a good performance of the models.

Keywords: quantum, machine learning, kernel, non-markovianity

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Authors: Baeza S. Roberto

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The knitted fabric suffers a deformation in its dimensions due to stretching and tension factors, transverse and longitudinal respectively, during the process in rectilinear knitting machines so it performs a dry relaxation shrinkage procedure and thermal action of prefixed to obtain stable conditions in the knitting. This paper presents a dry relaxation shrinkage prediction of Bordeaux fiber using a feed forward neural network and linear regression models. Six operational alternatives of shrinkage were predicted. A comparison of the results was performed finding neural network models with higher levels of explanation of the variability and prediction. The presence of different reposes are included. The models were obtained through a neural toolbox of Matlab and Minitab software with real data in a knitting company of Southern Guanajuato. The results allow predicting dry relaxation shrinkage of each alternative operation.

Keywords: neural network, dry relaxation, knitting, linear regression

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Authors: Anahita Farhang Ghahfarokhi, Alessandro Berti, Wil M.P. van der Aalst

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Process mining provides ways to analyze business processes. Common process mining techniques consider the process as a whole. However, in real-life business processes, different behaviors exist that make the overall process too complex to interpret. Process comparison is a branch of process mining that isolates different behaviors of the process from each other by using process cubes. Process cubes organize event data using different dimensions. Each cell contains a set of events that can be used as an input to apply process mining techniques. Existing work on process cubes assume single case notions. However, in real processes, several case notions (e.g., order, item, package, etc.) are intertwined. Object-centric process mining is a new branch of process mining addressing multiple case notions in a process. To make a bridge between object-centric process mining and process comparison, we propose a process cube framework, which supports process cube operations such as slice and dice on object-centric event logs. To facilitate the comparison, the framework is integrated with several object-centric process discovery approaches.

Keywords: multidimensional process mining, mMulti-perspective business processes, OLAP, process cubes, process discovery, process mining

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Authors: Ekin Ozer

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Assessment of structural reliability is essential for efficient use of civil infrastructure which is subjected hazardous events. Dynamic analysis of finite element models is a commonly used tool to simulate structural behavior and estimate its performance accordingly. However, theoretical models purely based on preliminary assumptions and design drawings may deviate from the actual behavior of the structure. This study proposes up-to-date reliability estimation procedures which engages actual bridge vibration data modifying finite element models for finite element model updating and performing reliability estimation, accordingly. The proposed method utilizes vibration response measurements of bridge structures to identify modal parameters, then uses these parameters to calibrate finite element models which are originally based on design drawings. The proposed method does not only show that reliability estimation based on updated models differs from the original models, but also infer that non-updated models may overestimate the structural capacity.

Keywords: earthquake engineering, engineering vibrations, reliability estimation, structural health monitoring

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Authors: Peyman Sheikholharam Mashhadi

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Difficulties in analyzing real world images in classical image processing and machine vision framework have motivated researchers towards considering the biology-based vision. It is a common belief that mammalian visual cortex has been adapted to the statistics of the real world images through the evolution process. There are two well-known successful models of mammalian visual cortical cells: Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and Independent Subspace Analysis (ISA). In this paper, we statistically analyze the dependencies which remain in the components after applying these models to the natural images. Also, we investigate the response of feature detectors to gratings with various parameters in order to find optimal parameters of the feature detectors. Finally, the selectiveness of feature detectors to phase, in both models is considered.

Keywords: statistics, independent component analysis, independent subspace analysis, phase, natural images

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Authors: Javad Khaligh, Aghileh Heydari, Ali Akbar Heydari

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Mathematical epidemiological models for the spread of disease through a population are used to predict the prevalence of a disease or to study the impacts of treatment or prevention measures. Initial conditions for these models are measured from statistical data collected from a population since these initial conditions can never be exact, the presence of chaos in mathematical models has serious implications for the accuracy of the models as well as how epidemiologists interpret their findings. This paper confirms the chaotic behavior of a model for dengue fever and SI by investigating sensitive dependence, bifurcation, and 0-1 test under a variety of initial conditions.

Keywords: epidemiological models, SEIR disease model, bifurcation, chaotic behavior, 0-1 test

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Authors: Jožef Ritonja

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The biochemical industry is one of the most important modern industries. Biochemical reactors are crucial devices of the biochemical industry. The essential bioprocess carried out in bioreactors is the fermentation process. A thorough insight into the fermentation process and the knowledge how to control it are essential for effective use of bioreactors to produce high quality and quantitatively enough products. The development of the control system starts with the determination of a mathematical model that describes the steady state and dynamic properties of the controlled plant satisfactorily, and is suitable for the development of the control system. The paper analyses the fermentation process in bioreactors thoroughly, using existing mathematical models. Most existing mathematical models do not allow the design of a control system for controlling the fermentation process in batch bioreactors. Due to this, a mathematical model was developed and presented that allows the development of a control system for batch bioreactors. Based on the developed mathematical model, a control system was designed to ensure optimal response of the biochemical quantities in the fermentation process. Due to the time-varying and non-linear nature of the controlled plant, the conventional control system with a proportional-integral-differential controller with constant parameters does not provide the desired transient response. The improved adaptive control system was proposed to improve the dynamics of the fermentation. The use of the adaptive control is suggested because the parameters’ variations of the fermentation process are very slow. The developed control system was tested to produce dairy products in the laboratory bioreactor. A carbon dioxide concentration was chosen as the controlled variable. The carbon dioxide concentration correlates well with the other, for the quality of the fermentation process in significant quantities. The level of the carbon dioxide concentration gives important information about the fermentation process. The obtained results showed that the designed control system provides minimum error between reference and actual values of carbon dioxide concentration during a transient response and in a steady state. The recommended control system makes reference signal tracking much more efficient than the currently used conventional control systems which are based on linear control theory. The proposed control system represents a very effective solution for the improvement of the milk fermentation process.

Keywords: biochemical reactor, fermentation process, modelling, adaptive control

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Authors: Hadia Abdel Aziz, Raghda El Ebrashi

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Business models are shaped by their design space or the environment they are designed to be implemented in. The rapidly changing economic, technological, political, regulatory and market external environment severely affects business logic. This is particularly true for social enterprises whose core mission is to transform their environments, and thus, their whole business logic revolves around the interchange between the enterprise and the environment. The context in which social business operates imposes different business design constraints while at the same time, open up new design opportunities. It is also affected to a great extent by the impact that successful enterprises generate; a continuous loop of interaction that needs to be managed through a dynamic capability in order to generate a lasting powerful impact. This conceptual research synthesizes and analyzes literature on social enterprise, social enterprise business models, business model innovation, business model design, and the open system view theory to propose a new business model design process for social enterprises that takes into account the critical role of environmental factors. This process would help the social enterprise develop a dynamic capability that ensures the alignment of its business model to its environmental context, thus, maximizing its probability of success.

Keywords: social enterprise, business model, business model design, business model environment

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Authors: Mona Baniahmadi, Saied Haghanifar

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Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is regarded as a promising technology for the optimization of supply chain processes since it improves manufacturing and retail operations from forecasting demand for planning, managing inventory, and distribution. This study precisely aims at learning to know the RFID technology and at explaining how it can concretely be used for supply chain management and how it can help improving it in the case of Hejrat Company which is located in Iran and works on the distribution of medical drugs and cosmetics. This study uses some statistical analysis to calculate the expected benefits of an integrated RFID system on supply chain obtained through competitive advantages increases with decreasing cost factor. The study investigates how the cost of storage process, labor cost, the cost of missing goods, inventory management optimization, on-time delivery, order cost, lost sales and supply process optimization affect the performance of the integrated RFID supply chain regarding cost factors and provides a competitive advantage.

Keywords: cost, competitive advantage, radio frequency identification, supply chain

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Authors: Bahar Urhan Torun, Havva Nur Tarakcı

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At the present time, online marketing has become the common target of small and full-scale organizations. Today’s humanbeing who has to spend most of their time in front of the computer because of his job, prefers to socialize by internet due to the easy access to technology. So online marketing area expands day by day. All business organizations from the smallest to the biggest are in a race in order to get a cut from the virtual market share in an extreme competitive environment. However these organizations which use the internet to reach more consumers cannot determine their target group accurately, so this is the biggest handicap of online marketing sales nowadays. The aim of this study is to determine some significant elements about need for communicating efficiently with the consumer on the internet on online marketing. The strategies that can be used in order to increase sales and the limitations of virtual environment where cannot be communicated with the consumer face to face are argued in this study’s scope. As a consequence it is thought that to study on this subject because of lacking and also being limited efficiency of researches and outputs. Within this scope suggesting some proposals about how to communicate efficiently with the consumer and also offering the consumers’ demands efficiently is the essential objective of this study.

Keywords: online marketing, competition, consumer, communication

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Authors: Jaroslav Masek, Juraj Camaj, Eva Nedeliakova

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The paper is focused on the operational model for transport the single wagon consignments on railway network by using two different models of train formation. The paper gives an overview of possibilities of improving the quality of transport services. Paper deals with two models used in problematic of train formatting - time continuously and time discrete. By applying these models in practice, the transport company can guarantee a higher quality of service and expect increasing of transport performance. The models are also applicable into others transport networks. The models supplement a theoretical problem of train formation by new ways of looking to affecting the organization of wagon flows.

Keywords: train formation, wagon flows, marshalling yard, railway technology

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Authors: M. A. Khanday, Aasma Rafiq, Khalid Nazir

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This paper is an attempt to establish the mathematical models to understand the distribution of drug administration in the human body through oral and intravenous routes. Three models were formulated based on diffusion process using Fick’s principle and the law of mass action. The rate constants governing the law of mass action were used on the basis of the drug efficacy at different interfaces. The Laplace transform and eigenvalue methods were used to obtain the solution of the ordinary differential equations concerning the rate of change of concentration in different compartments viz. blood and tissue medium. The drug concentration in the different compartments has been computed using numerical parameters. The results illustrate the variation of drug concentration with respect to time using MATLAB software. It has been observed from the results that the drug concentration decreases in the first compartment and gradually increases in other subsequent compartments.

Keywords: Laplace transform, diffusion, eigenvalue method, mathematical model

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Authors: Dávid Kovács, Bálint Csanády, Dániel Boros, Iván Ivkovic, Lóránt Nagy, Dalma Tóth-Lakits, László Márkus, András Lukács

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The modeling practice of financial instruments has seen significant change over the last decade due to the recognition of time-dependent and stochastically changing correlations among the market prices or the prices and market characteristics. To represent this phenomenon, the Stochastic Correlation Process (SCP) has come to the fore in the joint modeling of prices, offering a more nuanced description of their interdependence. This approach has allowed for the attainment of realistic tail dependencies, highlighting that prices tend to synchronize more during intense or volatile trading periods, resulting in stronger correlations. Evidence in statistical literature suggests that, similarly to the volatility, the SCP of certain stock prices follows rough paths, which can be described using fractional differential equations. However, estimating parameters for these equations often involves complex and computation-intensive algorithms, creating a necessity for alternative solutions. In this regard, the Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (fOU) process from the family of fractional processes offers a promising path. We can effectively describe the rough SCP by utilizing certain transformations of the fOU. We employed neural networks to understand the behavior of these processes. We had to develop a fast algorithm to generate a valid and suitably large sample from the appropriate process to train the network. With an extensive training set, the neural network can estimate the process parameters accurately and efficiently. Although the initial focus was the fOU, the resulting model displayed broader applicability, thus paving the way for further investigation of other processes in the realm of financial mathematics. The utility of SCP extends beyond its immediate application. It also serves as a springboard for a deeper exploration of fractional processes and for extending existing models that use ordinary Wiener processes to fractional scenarios. In essence, deploying both SCP and fractional processes in financial models provides new, more accurate ways to depict market dynamics.

Keywords: fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, fractional stochastic processes, Heston model, neural networks, stochastic correlation, stochastic differential equations, stochastic volatility

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Authors: Zouhour Neji Ben Salem

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Microscopic evacuation focuses on the evacuee behavior and way of search of safety place in an egress situation. In recent years, several models handled microscopic evacuation problem. Among them, we have proposed Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as an alternative to mathematical models that can deal with such problem. In this paper, we present two ANN models: SOM map and Hopfield Network used to predict the evacuee behavior in a disaster situation. These models are tested in a real case, the second floor of Tunisian children hospital evacuation in case of fire. The two models are studied and compared in order to evaluate their performance.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, self-organization map, hopfield network, microscopic evacuation, fire building evacuation

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Authors: Wannee Sutthachaidee

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The study of the production process of coconut-shell product in Amphawa, Samutsongkram Province is objected to study the pattern of the process of coconut-shell product by focusing in the 3 main processes which are inbound logistics process, production process and outbound process. The result of the research: There were 4 main results from the study. Firstly, most of the manufacturer of coconut-shell product is usually owned by a single owner and the quantity of the finished product is quite low and the main labor group is local people. Secondly, the production process can be divided into 4 stages which are pre-production process, production process, packaging process and distribution process. Thirdly, each 3 of the logistics process of coconut shell will find process which may cause the problem to the business but the process which finds the most problem is the production process because the production process needs the skilled labor and the quantity of the labor does not match with the demand from the customers. Lastly, the factors which affect the production process of the coconut shell can be founded in almost every process of the process such as production design, packaging design, sourcing supply and distribution management.

Keywords: production process, coconut-shell product, Amphawa District, inbound logistics process

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Authors: Osariyekemwen, Daniel Nosakhare

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Some ceramic wastes, such as discarded (condemn) Plaster of Paris (POP) in Auchi Polytechnic, Edo State, constitute environmental hazards. This study, therefore, bridges the forgoing gaps by undertaking the use of these discarded (POP) moulds to produced ceramic models for making casting moulds for mass production. This is in line with the possibility of using this medium to properly manage the discarded (condemn) Plaster of Paris (POP) that littered our immediate environment. Presently these are major wastes disposal in the department. Hence, the study has been made to fabricate sanitary miniature models and contract fuse models, respectively. Findings arising from this study show that discarded (condemn) Plaster of Paris (POP) can be carved when to set it neither shrink nor expand; hence warping is quite unusual. Above all, it also gives good finishing with little deterioration with time when compared to clay models.

Keywords: plaster of Paris, condemn, moulds, models, production

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Authors: Tiberiu Socaciu, Tudor Colomeischi, Eugenia Iancu

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Business failure affects in various proportions shareholders, managers, lenders (banks), suppliers, customers, the financial community, government and society as a whole. In the era in which we have telecommunications networks, exists an interdependence of markets, the effect of a failure of a company is relatively instant. To effectively manage risk exposure is thus require sophisticated support systems, supported by analytical tools to measure, monitor, manage and control operational risks that may arise. As we know, bankruptcy is a phenomenon that managers do not want no matter what stage of life is the company they direct / lead. In the analysis made by us, by the nature of economic models that are reviewed (Altman, Conan-Holder etc.), estimating the risk of bankruptcy of a company corresponds to some extent with its own business cycle tracing of the company. Various models for predicting bankruptcy take into account direct / indirect aspects such as market position, company growth trend, competition structure, characteristics and customer retention, organization and distribution, location etc. From the perspective of our research we will now review the economic models known in theory and practice for estimating the risk of bankruptcy; such models are based on indicators drawn from major accounting firms.

Keywords: Anglo-Saxon models, continental models, national models, statistical models

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