Search results for: sales process ARIMA models

Authors: Siham G. Farag

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The main objective of this paper is to provide a new methodology for road safety assessment in Oman through the development of suitable accident prediction models. GLM technique with Poisson or NBR using SAS package was carried out to develop these models. The paper utilized the accidents data of 31 un-signalized T-intersections during three years. Five goodness-of-fit measures were used to assess the overall quality of the developed models. Two types of models were developed separately; the flow-based models including only traffic exposure functions, and the full models containing both exposure functions and other significant geometry and traffic variables. The results show that, traffic exposure functions produced much better fit to the accident data. The most effective geometric variables were major-road mean speed, minor-road 85th percentile speed, major-road lane width, distance to the nearest junction, and right-turn curb radius. The developed models can be used for intersection treatment or upgrading and specify the appropriate design parameters of T- intersections. Finally, the models presented in this thesis reflect the intersection conditions in Oman and could represent the typical conditions in several countries in the middle east area, especially gulf countries.

Keywords: accidents prediction models (APMs), generalized linear model (GLM), T-intersections, Oman

Procedia PDF Downloads 244

Authors: Cindy Sithole, Didier Nyembwe, Peter Olubambi

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The sand casting process involves pattern making, mould making, metal pouring and shake out. Every step in the sand moulding process is very critical for production of good quality castings. However, waste generated during the sand moulding operation and lack of quality are matters that influences performance inefficiencies and lack of competitiveness in South African foundries. Defects produced from the sand moulding process are only visible in the final product (casting) which results in increased number of scrap, reduced sales and increases cost in the foundry. The purpose of this Research is to propose six sigma technique (DMAIC, Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve and Control) intervention in sand moulding foundries and to reduce variation caused by deficiencies in the sand moulding process in South African foundries. Its objective is to create sustainability and enhance productivity in the South African foundry industry. Six sigma is a data driven method to process improvement that aims to eliminate variation in business processes using statistical control methods .Six sigma focuses on business performance improvement through quality initiative using the seven basic tools of quality by Ishikawa. The objectives of six sigma are to eliminate features that affects productivity, profit and meeting customers’ demands. Six sigma has become one of the most important tools/techniques for attaining competitive advantage. Competitive advantage for sand casting foundries in South Africa means improved plant maintenance processes, improved product quality and proper utilization of resources especially scarce resources. Defects such as sand inclusion, Flashes and sand burn on were some of the defects that were identified as resulting from the sand moulding process inefficiencies using six sigma technique. The courses were we found to be wrong design of the mould due to the pattern used and poor ramming of the moulding sand in a foundry. Six sigma tools such as the voice of customer, the Fishbone, the voice of the process and process mapping were used to define the problem in the foundry and to outline the critical to quality elements. The SIPOC (Supplier Input Process Output Customer) Diagram was also employed to ensure that the material and process parameters were achieved to ensure quality improvement in a foundry. The process capability of the sand moulding process was measured to understand the current performance to enable improvement. The Expected results of this research are; reduced sand moulding process variation, increased productivity and competitive advantage.

Keywords: defects, foundries, quality improvement, sand moulding, six sigma (DMAIC)

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Authors: G. Martino, F. Silva, E. Marchal

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The control over delivered iron ore blend characteristics is one of the most important aspects of the mining business. The iron ore price is a function of its composition, which is the outcome of the beneficiation process. So, end-to-end integrated planning of mine operations can reduce risks of penalties on the iron ore price. In a standard iron mining company, the production chain is composed of mining, ore beneficiation, and client supply. When mine planning and client supply decisions are made uncoordinated, the beneficiation plant struggles to deliver the best blend possible. Technological improvements in several fields allowed bridging the gap between departments and boosting integrated decision-making processes. Clusterization and classification algorithms over historical production data generate reasonable previsions for quality and volume of iron ore produced for each pile of run-of-mine (ROM) processed. Mathematical modeling can use those deterministic relations to propose iron ore blends that better-fit specifications within a delivery schedule. Additionally, a model capable of representing the whole production chain can clearly compare the overall impact of different decisions in the process. This study shows how flexibilization combined with a planning optimization model between the mine and the ore beneficiation processes can reduce risks of out of specification deliveries. The model capabilities are illustrated on a hypothetical iron ore mine with magnetic separation process. Finally, this study shows ways of cost reduction or profit increase by optimizing process indicators across the production chain and integrating the different plannings with the sales decisions.

Keywords: clusterization and classification algorithms, integrated planning, mathematical modeling, optimization, penalty minimization

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Authors: Sun-Young Jang, Sung-Ah Kim, Dongyoun Shin

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Current real-estate value estimation, difficult for laymen, usually is performed by specialists. This paper presents an automated estimation process based on big data and machine-learning technology that calculates influences of building conditions on real-estate price measurement. The present study analyzed actual building sales sample data for Nonhyeon-dong, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, Korea, measuring the major influencing factors among the various building conditions. Further to that analysis, a prediction model was established and applied using RapidMiner Studio, a graphical user interface (GUI)-based tool for derivation of machine-learning prototypes. The prediction model is formulated by reference to previous examples. When new examples are applied, it analyses and predicts accordingly. The analysis process discerns the crucial factors effecting price increases by calculation of weighted values. The model was verified, and its accuracy determined, by comparing its predicted values with actual price increases.

Keywords: apartment complex, big data, life-cycle building value analysis, machine learning

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Authors: Alireza Nikravanshallmani, Jamshid Dehmeshki, Mojtaba Ahmadi

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Modeling of business processes, based on BPMN (Business Process Modeling Notation), helps analysts and managers to understand business processes, and, identify their shortages. These models provide a context to make rational decision of organizing business processes activities in an understandable manner. The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework for better understanding of business processes and their problems by reducing the cognitive load of displayed information for their audience at different managerial levels while keeping the essential information which are needed by them. For this reason, we integrate business process diagrams across the different managerial levels to develop a framework to improve the performance of business process management (BPM) projects. The proposed framework is entitled ‘Business process improvement framework based on managerial levels (BPIML)’. This framework, determine a certain type of business process diagrams (BPD) based on BPMN with respect to the objectives and tasks of the various managerial levels of organizations and their roles in BPM projects. This framework will make us able to provide the necessary support for making decisions about business processes. The framework is evaluated with a case study in a real business process improvement project, to demonstrate its superiority over the conventional method. A questionnaire consisted of 10 questions using Likert scale was designed and given to the participants (managers of Bank Refah Kargaran three managerial levels). By examining the results of the questionnaire, it can be said that the proposed framework provide support for correct and timely decisions by increasing the clarity and transparency of the business processes which led to success in BPM projects.

Keywords: business process management (BPM), business process modeling, business process reengineering (BPR), business process optimizing, BPMN

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Authors: T. Marinaci, C. Venuleo

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Different conceptualizations of disease affect patient care. This study aims to address this gap. It explores how health professionals conceptualize gambling problem, addiction and the goals of recovery process. In-depth, semi-structured, open-ended interviews were conducted with Italian psychologists, psychiatrists, general practitioners, and support staff (N= 114), working within health centres for the treatment of addiction (public health services or therapeutic communities) or medical offices. A Lexical Correspondence Analysis (LCA) was applied to the verbatim transcripts. LCA allowed to identify two main factorial dimensions, which organize similarity and dissimilarity in the discourses of the interviewed. The first dimension labelled 'Models of relationship with the problem', concerns two different models of relationship with the health problem: one related to the request for help and the process of taking charge and the other related to the identification of the psychopathology underlying the disorder. The second dimension, labelled 'Organisers of the intervention' reflects the dialectic between two ways to address the problem. On the one hand, they are the gambling dynamics and its immediate life-consequences to organize the intervention (whatever the request of the user is); on the other hand, they are the procedures and the tools which characterize the health service to organize the way the professionals deal with the user’ s problem (whatever it is and despite the specify of the user’s request). The results highlight how, despite the differences, the respondents share a central assumption: understanding gambling problem implies the reference to the gambler’s identity, more than, for instance, to the relational, social, cultural or political context where the gambler lives. A passive stance is attributed to the user, who does not play any role in the definition of the goal of the intervention. The results will be discussed to highlight the relationship between professional models and users’ ways to understand and deal with the problems related to gambling.

Keywords: cultural models, health professionals, intervention models, problem gambling

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Authors: Misuk Kim, Seokho Kang, Jehyuk Lee, Hyunchang Cho, Sungzoon Cho

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In semiconductor manufacturing, virtual metrology (VM) refers to methods to predict properties of a wafer based on machine parameters and sensor data of the production equipment, without performing the (costly) physical measurement of the wafer properties (Wikipedia). Additional benefits include avoidance of human bias and identification of important factors affecting the quality of the process which allow improving the process quality in the future. It is however rare to find VM applied to other areas of manufacturing. In this work, we propose to use VM to copper clad laminate (CCL) manufacturing. CCL is a core element of a printed circuit board (PCB) which is used in smartphones, tablets, digital cameras, and laptop computers. The manufacturing of CCL consists of three processes: Treating, lay-up, and pressing. Treating, the most important process among the three, puts resin on glass cloth, heat up in a drying oven, then produces prepreg for lay-up process. In this process, three important quality factors are inspected: Treated weight (T/W), Minimum Viscosity (M/V), and Gel Time (G/T). They are manually inspected, incurring heavy cost in terms of time and money, which makes it a good candidate for VM application. We developed prediction models of the three quality factors T/W, M/V, and G/T, respectively, with process variables, raw material, and environment variables. The actual process data was obtained from a CCL manufacturer. A variety of variable selection methods and learning algorithms were employed to find the best prediction model. We obtained prediction models of M/V and G/T with a high enough accuracy. They also provided us with information on “important” predictor variables, some of which the process engineers had been already aware and the rest of which they had not. They were quite excited to find new insights that the model revealed and set out to do further analysis on them to gain process control implications. T/W did not turn out to be possible to predict with a reasonable accuracy with given factors. The very fact indicates that the factors currently monitored may not affect T/W, thus an effort has to be made to find other factors which are not currently monitored in order to understand the process better and improve the quality of it. In conclusion, VM application to CCL’s treating process was quite successful. The newly built quality prediction model allowed one to reduce the cost associated with actual metrology as well as reveal some insights on the factors affecting the important quality factors and on the level of our less than perfect understanding of the treating process.

Keywords: copper clad laminate, predictive modeling, quality control, virtual metrology

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Authors: Florin Leon, Silvia Curteanu

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Developing complete mechanistic models for polymerization reactors is not easy, because complex reactions occur simultaneously; there is a large number of kinetic parameters involved and sometimes the chemical and physical phenomena for mixtures involving polymers are poorly understood. To overcome these difficulties, empirical models based on sampled data can be used instead, namely regression methods typical of machine learning field. They have the ability to learn the trends of a process without any knowledge about its particular physical and chemical laws. Therefore, they are useful for modeling complex processes, such as the free radical polymerization of methyl methacrylate achieved in a batch bulk process. The goal is to generate accurate predictions of monomer conversion, numerical average molecular weight and gravimetrical average molecular weight. This process is associated with non-linear gel and glass effects. For this purpose, an adaptive sampling technique is presented, which can select more samples around the regions where the values have a higher variation. Several machine learning methods are used for the modeling and their performance is compared: support vector machines, k-nearest neighbor, k-nearest neighbor and random forest, as well as an original algorithm, large margin nearest neighbor regression. The suggested method provides very good results compared to the other well-known regression algorithms.

Keywords: batch bulk methyl methacrylate polymerization, adaptive sampling, machine learning, large margin nearest neighbor regression

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Authors: F. Al-Sheikh, C. Moralejo, M. Pritzker, W. A. Anderson, A. Elkamel

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Ammonia in mining wastewater is a significant problem, and treatment can be especially difficult in cold climates where biological treatment is not feasible. An adsorption process is one of the alternative processes that can be used to reduce ammonia concentrations to acceptable limits, and therefore a LEWATIT resin strongly acidic H+ form ion exchange resin and a Bowie Chabazite Na form AZLB-Na zeolite were tested to assess their effectiveness. For these adsorption tests, two packed bed columns (a mini-column constructed from a 32-cm long x 1-cm diameter piece of glass tubing, and a 60-cm long x 2.5-cm diameter Ace Glass chromatography column) were used containing varying quantities of the adsorbents. A mining wastewater with ammonia concentrations of 22.7 mg/L was fed through the columns at controlled flowrates. In the experimental work, maximum capacities of the LEWATIT ion exchange resin were 0.438, 0.448, and 1.472 mg/g for 3, 6, and 9 g respectively in a mini column and 1.739 mg/g for 141.5 g in a larger Ace column while the capacities for the AZLB-Na zeolite were 0.424, and 0.784 mg/g for 3, and 6 g respectively in the mini column and 1.1636 mg/g for 38.5 g in the Ace column. In the theoretical work, Thomas, Adams-Bohart, and Yoon-Nelson models were constructed to describe a breakthrough curve of the adsorption process and find the constants of the above-mentioned models. In the regeneration tests, 5% hydrochloric acid, HCl (v/v) and 10% sodium hydroxide, NaOH (w/v) were used to regenerate the LEWATIT resin and AZLB-Na zeolite with 44 and 63.8% recovery, respectively. In conclusion, continuous flow adsorption using a LEWATIT ion exchange resin and an AZLB-Na zeolite is efficient when using a co-flow technique for removal of the ammonia from wastewater. Thomas, Adams-Bohart, and Yoon-Nelson models satisfactorily fit the data with R² closer to 1 in all cases.

Keywords: AZLB-Na zeolite, continuous adsorption, Lewatit resin, models, regeneration

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Authors: Elvira Mustikawati P.H., Iis Dewi Ratih, Dita Amelia

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Bojonegoro has proclaimed a policy of zero malnutrition. Therefore, as an effort to solve the cases of malnutrition children in Bojonegoro, this study used the approach geographically Mixed Weighted Regression (MGWR) to determine the factors that influence the percentage of malnourished children under five in which factors can be divided into locally influential factor in each district and global factors that influence throughout the district. Based on the test of goodness of fit models, R2 and AIC values in GWR models are better than MGWR models. R2 and AIC values in MGWR models are 84.37% and 14.28, while the GWR models respectively are 91.04% and -62.04. Based on the analysis with GWR models, District Sekar, Bubulan, Gondang, and Dander is a district with three predictor variables (percentage of vitamin A, the percentage of births assisted health personnel, and the percentage of clean water) that significantly influence the percentage of malnourished children under five.

Keywords: GWR, MGWR, R2, AIC

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Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

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Many quality models have been used to measure e-government portals quality. However, the absence of an international consensus for e-government portals quality models results in many differences in terms of quality attributes and measures. The aim of this paper is to compare and analyze the existing e-government quality models proposed in literature (those that are based on ISO standards and those that are not) in order to propose guidelines to build a good and useful e-government portals quality model. Our findings show that, there is no e-government portal quality model based on the new international standard ISO 25010. Besides that, the quality models are not based on a best practice model to allow agencies to both; measure e-government portals quality and identify missing best practices for those portals.

Keywords: e-government, portal, best practices, quality model, ISO, standard, ISO 25010, ISO 9126

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Authors: Alan S. Hoback

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Most people see human faces in car front and back ends because of the process of pareidolia. 96 people were surveyed to see how many of them saw a face in the vehicle styling. Participants were aged 18 to 72 years. 94% of the participants saw faces in the front-end design of production models. All participants that recognized faces indicated that most styles showed some degree of an angry expression. It was found that women were more likely to see faces in inanimate objects. However, with respect to whether women were more likely to perceive anger in the vehicle design, the results need further clarification. Survey responses were correlated to the design features of vehicles to determine what cues the respondents were likely looking at when responding. Whether the features looked anthropomorphic was key to anger perception. Features such as the headlights which could represent eyes and the air intake that could represent a mouth had high correlations to trends in scores. Results are compared among models, makers, by groupings of body styles classifications for the top 12 brands sold in the US, and by year for the top 20 models sold in the US in 2016. All of the top models sold increased in perception of an angry expression over the last 20 years or since the model was introduced, but the relative change varied by body style grouping.

Keywords: aggressive driving, face recognition, road rage, vehicle styling

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Authors: Nicolas Haber

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The study addresses the design process of integrated product-service offerings as a measure of answering environmental sustainability concerns by replacing stand-alone physical artefacts with comprehensive solutions relying on functional results rather than conventional product sales. However, views regarding this transformation are dissimilar and differentiated: The study discusses the importance and requirements of product-service systems before analysing the theoretical studies accomplished in the extent of their design and development processes. Based on this, a framework, built on a design science approach, is proposed, where the distinct approaches from the literature are merged towards a unified structure serving as a generic methodology to designing product-service systems. Each stage of this model is then developed to present a holistic design proposal called the Functional Engineered Product-Service System (FEPSS) model. Product-service systems are portrayed as customisable solutions tailored to specific settings and defined circumstances. Moreover, the approaches adopted to guide the design process are diversified. A thorough analysis of the design strategies and development processes however, allowed the extraction of a design backbone, valid to varied situations and contexts whether they are product-oriented, use-oriented or result-oriented. The goal is to guide manufacturers towards an eased adoption of these integrated offerings, given their inherited environmental benefits, by proposing a robust all-purpose design process.

Keywords: functional product, integrated product-service offerings, product-service systems, sustainable design

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Authors: Andrea ČopíKová

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Competency Based Management is a new approach to management, which solves organization’s challenges with complexity and with the aim to find and solve organization’s problems and learn how to avoid these in future. They teach the organizations to create, apart from the state of stability – that is temporary, vital organization, which is permanently able to utilize and profit from internal and external opportunities. The aim of this paper is to propose a process of competency model design, based on which a competency model for a financial department manager in a production company will be created. Competency models are very useful tool in many personnel processes in any organization. They are used for acquiring and selection of employees, designing training and development activities, employees’ evaluation, and they can be used as a guide for a career planning and as a tool for succession planning especially for managerial positions. When creating a competency model the method AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and quantitative pair-wise comparison (Saaty’s method) will be used; these methods belong among the most used methods for the determination of weights, and it is used in the AHP procedure. The introduction part of the paper consists of the research results pertaining to the use of competency model in practice and then the issue of competency and competency models is explained. The application part describes in detail proposed methodology for the creation of competency models, based on which the competency model for the position of financial department manager in a foreign manufacturing company, will be created. In the conclusion of the paper, the final competency model will be shown for above mentioned position. The competency model divides selected competencies into three groups that are managerial, interpersonal and functional. The model describes in detail individual levels of competencies, their target value (required level) and the level of importance.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, competency, competency model, quantitative pairwise comparison

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Authors: Ayman Aboelkassem, Mahmoud Ali

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Introduction: The models of soul houses have appeared in the prehistory, old kingdom and middle kingdom period. These soul houses represented the imagination of the deceased about his house in the afterlife, some of these soul houses were two floors and the study will examine five models of soul houses which were discovered near Saqqara site by an Egyptian mission. These models had been transferred to The Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM) to be ready to display at the new museum. We focus on models of soul houses (GEM Numbers, 1276, 1280, 1281, 1282, 8711) these models of soul houses were related to the old kingdom period. These models were all made of pottery, the five models have an oval shape and were decorated with relief. Methodology: The study will focus on the development of soul houses during the different periods in ancient Egypt, the function of soul houses, the kind of offerings which were put in it and the symbolism of the offerings colors in ancient Egyptian believe. Conclusion: This study is useful for the heritage and ancient civilizations especially when we talk about opening new museums like The Grand Egyptian Museum which will display a new collection of soul houses. The study of soul houses and The kinds of offerings which put in it reflect the economic situation in the Egyptian society and kinds of oils which were famous in ancient Egypt.

Keywords: archaeology study, Grand Egyptian Museum, relief, soul houses

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Authors: Emma K. Sales

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Durian is the flagship fruit of Mindanao and there is an abundance of several cultivars with many confusing identities/ names. The project was conducted to develop procedure for reliable and rapid detection and sorting of durian planting materials. Moreover, it is also aimed to establish specific genetic or DNA markers for routine testing and authentication of durian cultivars in question. The project developed molecular procedures for routine testing. SSR primers were also screened and identified for their utility in discriminating durian cultivars collected. Results of the study showed the following accomplishments; 1. Twenty (29) SSR primers were selected and identified based on their ability to discriminate durian cultivars, 2. Optimized and established standard procedure for identification and authentication of Durian cultivars 3. Genetic profile of durian is now available at Biotech Unit. Our results demonstrate the relevance of using molecular techniques in evaluating and identifying durian clones. The most polymorphic primers tested in this study could be useful tools for detecting variation even at the early stage of the plant especially for commercial purposes. The process developed combines the efficiency of the microsatellites development process with the optimization of non-radioactive detection process resulting in a user-friendly protocol that can be performed in two (2) weeks and easily incorporated into laboratories about to start microsatellite development projects. This can be of great importance to extend microsatellite analyses to other crop species where minimal genetic information is currently available. With this, the University can now be a service laboratory for routine testing and authentication of durian clones.

Keywords: DNA, SSR analysis, genotype, genetic diversity, cultivars

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Authors: Aasheesh Raturi, Vimal Kothiyal, P. D. Semalty

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We studied mechanical properties of Eucalyptus tereticornis using FT-NIR spectroscopy. Firstly, spectra were pre-processed to eliminate useless information. Then, prediction model was constructed by partial least squares regression. To study the influence of pre-processing on prediction of mechanical properties for NIR analysis of wood samples, we applied various pretreatment methods like straight line subtraction, constant offset elimination, vector-normalization, min-max normalization, multiple scattering. Correction, first derivative, second derivatives and their combination with other treatment such as First derivative + straight line subtraction, First derivative+ vector normalization and First derivative+ multiplicative scattering correction. The data processing methods in combination of preprocessing with different NIR regions, RMSECV, RMSEP and optimum factors/rank were obtained by optimization process of model development. More than 350 combinations were obtained during optimization process. More than one pre-processing method gave good calibration/cross-validation and prediction/test models, but only the best calibration/cross-validation and prediction/test models are reported here. The results show that one can safely use NIR region between 4000 to 7500 cm-1 with straight line subtraction, constant offset elimination, first derivative and second derivative preprocessing method which were found to be most appropriate for models development.

Keywords: FT-NIR, mechanical properties, pre-processing, PLS

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan, Inga A. Koryagina, Maria Nikishova

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The study investigates the impact of the ongoing financial crisis, started in the 2^nd half of 2014, on marketing budgets spent by Fast-moving consumer goods companies. In these conditions, special importance is given to efficient possessory risk management systems. The main objective for establishing and developing possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies in a crisis is to analyze the data relating to the external environment and consumer behavior in a crisis. Another important objective for possessory risk management systems of FMCG companies is to develop measures and mechanisms to maintain and stimulate sales. In this regard, analysis of risks and threats which consumers define as the main reasons affecting their level of consumption become important. It is obvious that in crisis conditions the effective risk management systems responsible for development and implementation of strategies for consumer demand stimulation, as well as the identification, analysis, assessment and management of other types of risks of economic security will be the key to sustainability of a company. In terms of financial and economic crisis, the problem of forming and developing possessory risk management systems becomes critical not only in the context of management models of FMCG companies, but for all the companies operating in other sectors of the Russian economy. This study attempts to analyze the specifics of formation and development of company possessory risk management systems. In the modern economy, special importance among all the types of owner’s risks has the risk of reduction in consumer activity. This type of risk is common not only for the consumer goods trade. Study of consumer activity decline is especially important for Russia due to domestic market of consumer goods being still in the development stage, despite its significant growth. In this regard, it is especially important to form and develop possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies. The authors offer their own interpretation of the process of forming and developing possessory risk management systems within owner’s management models of FMCG companies as well as in Russian economy in general. Proposed methods and mechanisms of problem analysis of formation and development of possessory risk management systems in FMCG companies and the results received can be helpful for researchers interested in problems of consumer goods market development in Russia and overseas.

Keywords: FMCG companies, marketing budget, risk management, owner, Russian economy, organization, formation, development, system

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Authors: Hang Lo Lee, Ki Il Song, Hee Hwan Ryu

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An accurate prediction of TBM(Tunnel Boring Machine) performance is very difficult for reliable estimation of the construction period and cost in preconstruction stage. For this purpose, the aim of this study is to analyze the evaluation process of various prediction models published since 2000 for TBM performance, and to select the optimal input parameters for the prediction model. A classification system of TBM performance prediction model and applied methodology are proposed in this research. Input and output parameters applied for prediction models are also represented. Based on these results, a statistical analysis is performed using the collected data from shield TBM tunnel in South Korea. By performing a simple regression and residual analysis utilizinFg statistical program, R, the optimal input parameters are selected. These results are expected to be used for development of prediction model of TBM performance.

Keywords: TBM performance prediction model, classification system, simple regression analysis, residual analysis, optimal input parameters

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Authors: Mohammad S. Rouhi, Magdalena Juntikka

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Processing of polymer fiber composites has a remarkable influence on their mechanical performance. These mechanical properties are even more influenced when using recycled reinforcement. Therefore, we place particular attention on the evaluation of micromechanical models to estimate the mechanical properties and compare them against the experimental results of the manufactured composites. For the manufacturing process, an epoxy matrix and carbon fiber production cut-offs as reinforcing material are incorporated using a vacuum infusion process. In addition, continuous textile reinforcement in combination with the epoxy matrix is used as reference material to evaluate the kick-down in mechanical performance of the recycled composite. The experimental results show less degradation of the composite stiffness compared to the strength properties. Observations from the modeling also show the same trend as the error between the theoretical and experimental results is lower for stiffness comparisons than the strength calculations. Yet still, good mechanical performance for specific applications can be expected from these materials.

Keywords: composite recycling, carbon fibers, mechanical properties, micromechanics

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Authors: Aedah Abd Rahman, Nurdatillah Hasim

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Software quality issues require special attention especially in view of the demands of quality software product to meet customer satisfaction. Software development projects in most organisations need proper defect management process in order to produce high quality software product and reduce the number of defects. The research question of this study is how to produce high quality software and reducing the number of defects. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to provide a framework for managing software defects by following defined life cycle processes. The methodology starts by reviewing defects, defect models, best practices and standards. A framework for defect management life cycle is proposed. The major contribution of this study is to define a defect management road map in software development. The adoption of an effective defect management process helps to achieve the ultimate goal of producing high quality software products and contributes towards continuous software process improvement.

Keywords: defects, defect management, life cycle process, software quality

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Authors: Mehrnoosh Askarizadeh

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People, process and IT are the most important assets of any organization. Optimal utilization of these resources has been the question of research in business for many decades. The business world have responded by inventing various methodologies that can be used for addressing problems of quality improvement, efficiency of processes, continuous improvement, reduction of waste, automation, strategy alignments etc. Some of these methodologies can be commonly called as Business Process Quality Management methodologies (BPQM). In essence, the first references to the process management can be traced back to Frederick Taylor and scientific management. Time and motion study was addressed to improvement of manufacturing process efficiency. The ideas of scientific management were in use for quite a long period until more advanced quality management techniques were developed in Japan and USA. One of the first prominent methods had been Total Quality Management (TQM) which evolved during 1980’s. About the same time, Six Sigma (SS) originated at Motorola as a separate method. SS spread and evolved; and later joined with ideas of Lean manufacturing to form Lean Six Sigma. In 1990’s due to emerging IT technologies, beginning of globalization, and strengthening of competition, companies recognized the need for better process and quality management. Business Process Management (BPM) emerged as a novel methodology that has taken all this into account and helped to align IT technologies with business processes and quality management. In this article we will study various aspects of above mentioned methods and identified their relations.

Keywords: e-process, quality, TQM, BPM, lean, six sigma, CPI, information technology, management

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Authors: Ebrahim Sabermaash Eshghi, Donna Sandsmark

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In changing modern economic conditions of the world, one the most important issues facing managers of firms, is increasing the sales and profitability through sales of newly developed products. This is while purpose of decreasing unnecessary costs is one of the most essential programs of smart managers for more implementation with new conditions in current business. In modern life, condition of misgiving is dominant in all of the industries. Accordingly, in this research, influence of different aspects of presenting products to the market is investigated. This study is done through a Quantitative-Qualitative (Interviews and Questionnaire) approach. In sum, 103 of informed managers and experts of Pars-Khazar Company have been examined through census. Validity of measurement tools was approved through judgments of experts. Reliability of tools was gained through Cronbach's alpha coefficient in size of 0.930 and in sum, validity and reliability of tools were approved generally. Results of regression test revealed that the influence of all aspects of product introduction supported the performance of product, positively and significantly. In addition that influence of two new factors raised from the interview, namely Human Resource Management and Management of product’s pre-test on performance of products was approved.

Keywords: introducing products, performance, home appliances, price, advertisement, production

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Authors: Guo Haonan, Chen Peiyu, Zhao Hanyu, Burra Venkata Durga Kumar

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Unix and Unix-like operating systems are widely used due to their high stability but are limited by the parent-child process structure, and the child process depends on the parent process, so the crash of a single process may cause the entire process group or even the entire system to fail. Another possibility of unexpected process termination is that the system administrator inadvertently closed the terminal or pseudo-terminal where the application was launched, causing the application process to terminate unexpectedly. This paper mainly analyzes the reasons for the problems and proposes two solutions.

Keywords: process management, daemon, login-bash and non-login bash, process group

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Authors: I. Behroyan, P. Ganesan, S. He, S. Sivasankaran

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This study compares the predictions of five types of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models, including two single-phase models (i.e. Newtonian and non-Newtonian) and three two-phase models (Eulerian-Eulerian, mixture and Eulerian-Lagrangian), to investigate turbulent forced convection of Cu-water nanofluid in a tube with a constant heat flux on the tube wall. The Reynolds (Re) number of the flow is between 10,000 and 25,000, while the volume fraction of Cu particles used is in the range of 0 to 2%. The commercial CFD package of ANSYS-Fluent is used. The results from the CFD models are compared with results from experimental investigations from literature. According to the results of this study, non-Newtonian single-phase model, in general, does not show a good agreement with Xuan and Li correlation in prediction of Nu number. Eulerian-Eulerian model gives inaccurate results expect for φ=0.5%. Mixture model gives a maximum error of 15%. Newtonian single-phase model and Eulerian-Lagrangian model, in overall, are the recommended models. This work can be used as a reference for selecting an appreciate model for future investigation. The study also gives a proper insight about the important factors such as Brownian motion, fluid behavior parameters and effective nanoparticle conductivity which should be considered or changed by the each model.

Keywords: heat transfer, nanofluid, single-phase models, two-phase models

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Authors: Mohammad Z. Ansari, Lisa Brodie, Marilyn Goh

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Change facilitators are individuals who utilize change philosophy to make a positive change to organizations. The application of change facilitators can be seen in various change models; Lewin, Lippitt, etc. The facilitators within numerous change models are considered as internal/external consultants. Whilst most of the scholarly paper considers change facilitation as a consensus attempt to improve organization, there is a lack of a framework that develops both the organization and the change facilitator creating a self-sustaining change environment. This research paper introduces the development of the framework for change Leaders, Planners, and Executers (LPE), aiming at various organizational levels (Process, Departmental, and Organisational). The LPE framework is derived by exploring interrelated characteristics between facilitator(s) and the organization through qualitative research for understanding change management techniques and facilitator(s) behavioral aspect from existing Change Management models and Organisation behavior works of literature. The introduced framework assists in highlighting and identify the most appropriate change team to successfully deliver the change initiative within any organization (s).

Keywords: change initiative, LPE framework, change facilitator(s), sustainable change

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Authors: Cristiane R. Magalhaes

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Advances in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) have led to changes in different sectors particularly in architecture, engineering, construction, and operation (AECO) industry. In this context, the advent of BIM (Building Information Modeling) has brought a number of opportunities in the field of the digital architectural design process bringing integrated design concepts that impact on the development, elaboration, coordination, and management of ventures. The project scope has begun to contemplate, from its original stage, the third dimension, by means of virtual environments (VEs), composed of models containing different specialties, substituting the two-dimensional products. The possibility to simulate the construction process of a venture in a VE starts at the beginning of the design process offering, through new technologies, many possibilities beyond geometrical digital modeling. This is a significant change and relates not only to form, but also to how information is appropriated in architectural and engineering models and exchanged among professionals. In order to achieve the main objective of this work, the Design Science Research Method will be adopted to elaborate an artifact containing strategies for the application and use of ICTs from BIM flows, with pre-construction cut-off to the execution of the building. This article intends to discuss and investigate how BIM can be extended to the site acting as a protagonist and link between the Virtual Environments and the Real-World, as well as its contribution to the integration of the value chain and the consequent increase of efficiency in the production of the building. The virtualization of the design process has reached high levels of development through the use of BIM. Therefore it is essential that the lessons learned with the virtual models be transposed to the actual building production increasing precision and efficiency. Thus, this paper discusses how the Fourth Industrial Revolution has impacted on property developments and how BIM could be the propellant acting as the main fuel and link between the virtual environment and the real production for the structuring of flows, information management and efficiency in this process. The results obtained are partial and not definite up to the date of this publication. This research is part of a doctoral thesis development, which focuses on the discussion of the impact of digital transformation in the construction of residential buildings in Brazil.

Keywords: building information modeling, building production, digital transformation, ICT

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Authors: Mahacine Amrani

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This paper aims at reviewing some Moroccan industrial applications of wavelet especially in the dynamic identification of a process model using Haar wavelet mother response. Two recent Moroccan study cases are described using dynamic data originated by a distillation column and an industrial polyethylene process plant. The purpose of the wavelet scheme is to build on-line dynamic models. In both case studies, a comparison is carried out between the Haar wavelet mother response model and a linear difference equation model. Finally it concludes, on the base of the comparison of the process performances and the best responses, which may be useful to create an estimated on-line internal model control and its application towards model-predictive controllers (MPC). All calculations were implemented using AutoSignal Software.

Keywords: process performance, model, wavelets, Haar, Moroccan

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Authors: Abeer Samy, Oliver C. Saavedra Valeriano, Abdelazim Negm

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The Blue Nile Basin is the most important tributary of the Nile River. Egypt and Sudan are almost dependent on water originated from the Blue Nile. This multi-dependency creates conflicts among the three countries Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia making the management of these conflicts as an international issue. Good assessment of the water resources of the Blue Nile is an important to help in managing such conflicts. Hydrological models are good tool for such assessment. This paper presents a critical review of the nature and variability of the climate and hydrology of the Blue Nile Basin as a first step of using hydrological modeling to assess the water resources of the Blue Nile. Many several attempts are done to develop basin-scale hydrological modeling on the Blue Nile. Lumped and semi distributed models used averages of meteorological inputs and watershed characteristics in hydrological simulation, to analyze runoff for flood control and water resource management. Distributed models include the temporal and spatial variability of catchment conditions and meteorological inputs to allow better representation of the hydrological process. The main challenge of all used models was to assess the water resources of the basin is the shortage of the data needed for models calibration and validation. It is recommended to use distributed model for their higher accuracy to cope with the great variability and complexity of the Blue Nile basin and to collect sufficient data to have more sophisticated and accurate hydrological modeling.

Keywords: Blue Nile Basin, climate change, hydrological modeling, watershed

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Authors: Megha Gupta, Nupur Prakash

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Identification of plant diseases has been performed using machine learning and deep learning models on the datasets containing images of healthy and diseased plant leaves. The current study carries out an evaluation of some of the deep learning models based on convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures for identification of plant diseases. For this purpose, the publicly available New Plant Diseases Dataset, an augmented version of PlantVillage dataset, available on Kaggle platform, containing 87,900 images has been used. The dataset contained images of 26 diseases of 14 different plants and images of 12 healthy plants. The CNN models selected for the study presented in this paper are AlexNet, ZFNet, VGGNet (four models), GoogLeNet, and ResNet (three models). The selected models are trained using PyTorch, an open-source machine learning library, on Google Colaboratory. A comparative study has been carried out to analyze the high degree of accuracy achieved using these models. The highest test accuracy and F1-score of 99.59% and 0.996, respectively, were achieved by using GoogLeNet with Mini-batch momentum based gradient descent learning algorithm.

Keywords: comparative analysis, convolutional neural networks, deep learning, plant disease identification

Procedia PDF Downloads 166