Search results for: risk monitoring

Authors: Hotlan Siagian, Han Tae Hee

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This study aims to examine the effect of supplier trust and top management involvement on the supply chain risk management through buyer-supplier relationship. The population of the research is 44 Korean companies domiciled in East and Central Java of Indonesia. The respondent consists of a top management level from each company. Data collection used a questionnaire designed with five-item Likert scale. Collected data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) technique with SmartPLS software version 3.0 to examine the hypotheses. The result revealed that supplier trust has an effect on supply chain risk management, top management involvement affects supply chain risk management, supplier trust influences buyer-supplier relationship, top management involvement affects the buyer-supplier relationship, and buyer-supplier relationship affects supply chain risk management. The last finding is that buyer-supplier relationship empirically mediates the effect of supplier trust and top management involvement.

Keywords: buyer supplier relationship, supplier trust, supply chain risk management, top management involvement

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Authors: Haolin Li, Eric Bair, Jane Monaco, Quefeng Li

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The temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a series of musculoskeletal disorders ranging from jaw pain to chronic debilitating pain, and the risk factors for the onset and maintenance of TMD are still unclear. Prior researches have shown that the potential risk factors for chronic TMD are related to psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity. Using data from the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) study’s baseline case-control study, we examine whether the risk factors identified by prior researches are still statistically significant after taking all of the risk measures into account in one single model, and we also compare the relative influences of the risk factors in three different perspectives (psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity) on the chronic TMD. The statistical analysis is conducted by using ridge logistic regression and bootstrapping, in which the performance of the algorithms has been assessed using extensive simulation studies. The results support most of the findings of prior researches that there are many psychosocial and pain sensitivity measures that have significant associations with chronic TMD. However, it is surprising that most of the risk factors of autonomic functions have not presented significant associations with chronic TMD, as described by a prior research.

Keywords: autonomic function, OPPERA study, pain sensitivity, psychosocial measures, temporomandibular disorder

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Authors: Moses Jenkins

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Much of the focus when improving energy efficiency in buildings fall on the raising of standards within new build dwellings. However, as a significant proportion of the building stock across Europe is of historic or traditional construction, there is also a pressing need to improve the thermal performance of structures of this sort. On average, around twenty percent of buildings across Europe are built of historic masonry construction. In order to meet carbon reduction targets, these buildings will require to be retrofitted with insulation to improve their thermal performance. At the same time, there is also a need to balance this with maintaining the ability of historic masonry construction to allow moisture movement through building fabric to take place. This moisture transfer, often referred to as 'breathable construction', is critical to the success, or otherwise, of retrofit projects. The significance of this paper is to demonstrate that substantial thermal improvements can be made to historic buildings whilst avoiding damage to building fabric through surface or interstitial condensation. The paper will analyze the results of a wide range of retrofit measures installed to twenty buildings as part of Historic Environment Scotland's technical research program. This program has been active for fourteen years and has seen interventions across a wide range of building types, using over thirty different methods and materials to improve the thermal performance of historic buildings. The first part of the paper will present the range of interventions which have been made. This includes insulating mass masonry walls both internally and externally, warm and cold roof insulation and improvements to floors. The second part of the paper will present the results of monitoring work which has taken place to these buildings after being retrofitted. This will be in terms of both thermal improvement, expressed as a U-value as defined in BS EN ISO 7345:1987, and also, crucially, will present the results of moisture monitoring both on the surface of masonry walls the following retrofit and also within the masonry itself. The aim of this moisture monitoring is to establish if there are any problems with interstitial condensation. This monitoring utilizes Interstitial Hygrothermal Gradient Monitoring (IHGM) and similar methods to establish relative humidity on the surface of and within the masonry. The results of the testing are clear and significant for retrofit projects across Europe. Where a building is of historic construction the use of materials for wall, roof and floor insulation which are permeable to moisture vapor provides both significant thermal improvements (achieving a u-value as low as 0.2 Wm²K) whilst avoiding problems of both surface and intestinal condensation. As the evidence which will be presented in the paper comes from monitoring work in buildings rather than theoretical modeling, there are many important lessons which can be learned and which can inform retrofit projects to historic buildings throughout Europe.

Keywords: insulation, condensation, masonry, historic

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Authors: Ezgi Cetinkaya

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In the psychological literature, there are a few studies that focus on actors' self-perceptions and their social adjustment skills. Therefore the aim of the study was to shed light on the self-concept clarity, sociotrophy, and self-monitoring levels of professional actors. For this purpose, actors and non-actors are compared to their peers. The study was conducted with the participation of 106 actors and 131 non-actors. A descriptive method of research was employed and data was collected through the concept Clarity scale by Campbell et al. (1996), the Pleasing Others and Concern For Disapproval subscales of Sociotrophy and Autonomy scale by Beck et al. (1983), and the Self-Monitoring Scale by Snyder ( 1983). ANOVA and correlation analysis was done by using SPSS. Results showed that there is no significant difference between actors and non-actors at any age in terms of Self Concept Clarity. 25-25 years non-actors were found to have the highest self-concept clarity while the young actors had the lowest. The study didn’t reveal significant differences between the groups in terms of Sociotropy scores. The actor’s sociothropic tendencies weren’t enhanced by the experience. The study demonstrated that 25-35-year-old actors are higher self-monitors than 25-35-year-old non-actors.

Keywords: self-concept, self-monitoring, autonomy, sociotropy, theatre, acting, creativity, identity

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal

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In today’s world, companies are operating in dynamic, uncertain and ambiguous business environments. Globally, more companies are failing due to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors than ever. Corporate governance and risk management are intertwined in nature. For decades, corporate governance and risk management have been influenced by internal and external factors. Three schools of thought have influenced risk governance for decades: Agency theory, Contingency theory, and Institutional theory. Agency theory argues that agents have interests conflicting with principal interests and the information problem. Contingency theory suggests that risk management adoption is influenced by internal and external factors, while Institutional theory suggests that organizations legitimize risk management with regulators, competitors, and professional bodies. The conflicting objectives of theories have created problems for executives in organizations in the adoption of Risk Governance. So far, there are many studies that discussed risk culture and the role of actors in risk governance, but there are rare studies discussing the role of risk culture in the adoption of risk governance from a leadership style perspective. This study explores the adoption of risk governance in two contrasting industries, such as the Insurance and energy business, to understand whether risk governance is influenced by internal/external factors or whether risk culture is influenced by leaders. We draw empirical evidence by comparing the cases of an Indian insurance company and a renewable energy-based firm in India. We interviewed more than 20 senior executives of companies and collected annual reports, risk management policies, and more than 10 PPTs and other reports from 2017 to 2024. We visited the company for follow-up questions several times. The findings of my research revealed that both companies have used risk governance for strategic renewal of the company. Insurance companies use a transactional leadership style based on performance and reward for improving risk, while energy companies use rather symbolic management to make debt restructuring meaningful for stakeholders. Overall, both companies turned from loss-making to profitable ones in a few years. This comparative study highlights the role of different leadership styles in the adoption of risk governance. The study is also distinct as previous research rarely studied risk governance in two contrasting industries in reference to leadership styles.

Keywords: leadership style, corporate governance, risk management, risk culture, strategic renewal

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Authors: Amira Zrelli, Tahar Ezzeddine

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Measurement and monitoring of temperature, humidity and strain variation are very requested in great fields and areas such as structural health monitoring (SHM) systems. Currently, the use of fiber Bragg grating sensors (FBGS) is very recommended in SHM systems due to the specifications of these sensors. In this paper, we present the theory of Bragg sensor, therefore we try to measure the efficient variation of strain, temperature and humidity (SV, ST, SH) using Bragg sensor. Thus, we can deduce the fundamental relation between these parameters and the wavelength of Bragg sensor.

Keywords: Fiber Bragg Grating Sensors (FBGS), strain, temperature, humidity, structural health monitoring (SHM)

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Authors: Samuel Capintero, Ole H. Petersen

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This paper examines the utilization of public-private partnerships for the building and operation of wastewater treatment plants. Our research focuses on risk allocation in this kind of projects. Our analysis builds on more than hundred wastewater treatment plants built and operated through PPP projects in Aragon (Spain). The paper illustrates the consequences of an inadequate management of construction risk and an unsuitable transfer of demand risk in wastewater treatment plants. It also shows that the involvement of many public bodies at local, regional and national level further increases the complexity of this kind of projects and make time delays more likely.

Keywords: wastewater, treatment plants, PPP, construction

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Authors: M. Marín-Ferrer, M. A. Hernández, T. Tollefsen, S. Vanzo, E. Nweke, P. V. Tognoli, M. De Cort

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Under the terms of Article 36 of the Euratom Treaty, European Union Member States (MSs) shall periodically communicate to the European Commission (EC) information on environmental radioactivity levels. Compilations of the information received have been published by the EC as a series of reports beginning in the early 1960s. The environmental radioactivity results received from the MSs have been introduced into the Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring database (REMdb) of the Institute for Transuranium Elements of the EC Joint Research Centre (JRC) sited in Ispra (Italy) as part of its Directorate General for Energy (DG ENER) support programme. The REMdb brings to the scientific community dealing with environmental radioactivity topics endless of research opportunities to exploit the near 200 millions of records received from MSs containing information of radioactivity levels in milk, water, air and mixed diet. The REM action was created shortly after Chernobyl crisis to support the EC in its responsibilities in providing qualified information to the European Parliament and the MSs on the levels of radioactive contamination of the various compartments of the environment (air, water, soil). Hence, the main line of REM’s activities concerns the improvement of procedures for the collection of environmental radioactivity concentrations for routine and emergency conditions, as well as making this information available to the general public. In this way, REM ensures the availability of tools for the inter-communication and access of users from the Member States and the other European countries to this information. Specific attention is given to further integrate the new MSs with the existing information exchange systems and to assist Candidate Countries in fulfilling these obligations in view of their membership of the EU. Article 36 of the EURATOM treaty requires the competent authorities of each MS to provide regularly the environmental radioactivity monitoring data resulting from their Article 35 obligations to the EC in order to keep EC informed on the levels of radioactivity in the environment (air, water, milk and mixed diet) which could affect population. The REMdb has mainly two objectives: to keep a historical record of the radiological accidents for further scientific study, and to collect the environmental radioactivity data gathered through the national environmental monitoring programs of the MSs to prepare the comprehensive annual monitoring reports (MR). The JRC continues his activity of collecting, assembling, analyzing and providing this information to public and MSs even during emergency situations. In addition, there is a growing concern with the general public about the radioactivity levels in the terrestrial and marine environment, as well about the potential risk of future nuclear accidents. To this context, a clear and transparent communication with the public is needed. EURDEP (European Radiological Data Exchange Platform) is both a standard format for radiological data and a network for the exchange of automatic monitoring data. The latest release of the format is version 2.0, which is in use since the beginning of 2002.

Keywords: environmental radioactivity, Euratom, monitoring report, REMdb

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Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

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Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefiting companies. Usability is also the best factor that acts as a balance for both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk can be defined as a potential usability risk factor that a chosen action or activity may lead to a possible loss or an undesirable outcome. This could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible involved usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans to reduce potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: usability, usability risk, risk management, risk mitigation, delphi study

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Authors: Jocelyn B. Barbosa, Angeli L. Magbaril, Mariel T. Sabanal, John Paul T. Galario, Mikka P. Baldovino

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The use of technology has become ubiquitous in different areas of business today. With the advent of digital imaging and database technology, business owners have been motivated to integrate technology to their business operation ranging from small, medium to large enterprises. Technology has been found to have brought many benefits that can make a business grow. Hog or swine raising, for example, is a very popular enterprise in the Philippines, whose challenges in production monitoring can be addressed through technology integration. Swine production monitoring can become a tedious task as the enterprise goes larger. Specifically, problems like delayed and inconsistent reports are most likely to happen if counting of swine per pen of which building is done manually. In this study, we present iCount, which aims to ensure efficient swine detection and counting that hastens the swine production monitoring task. We develop a system that automatically detects and counts swine based on Sobel filter and ellipse fitting model, given the still photos of the group of swine captured in a pen. We improve the Sobel filter detection result through 8-neigbhorhood rule implementation. Ellipse fitting technique is then employed for proper swine detection. Furthermore, the system can generate periodic production reports and can identify the specific consumables to be served to the swine according to schedules. Experiments reveal that our algorithm provides an efficient way for detecting swine, thereby providing a significant amount of accuracy in production monitoring.

Keywords: automatic swine counting, swine detection, swine production monitoring, ellipse fitting model, sobel filter

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Authors: Iqbal Pramukti, Mamat Lukman, Hasniatisari Harun, Kusman Ibrahim

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Introduction: People living with HIV had a higher risk of osteoporotic fracture than the general population. The purpose of this study was to predict the 10-year risk of fracture among people living with HIV (PLWH) using FRAX™ and to identify characteristics related to the fracture risk. Methodology: This study consisted of 75 subjects. The ten-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures was assessed using the FRAX™ algorithm. A cross-tabulation was used to identify the participant’s characteristics related to fracture risk. Results: The overall mean 10-year probability of fracture was 2.4% (1.7) for MOF and 0.4% (0.3) for hip fractures. For MOF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use showed a higher MOF score than those who were not (3.1 vs. 2.5; 4.6 vs 2.5; and 3.4 vs 2.5, respectively). For HF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use also showed a higher HF score than those who were not (0.5 vs. 0.3; 0.8 vs. 0.3; and 0.5 vs. 0.3, respectively). Conclusions: The 10-year risk of fracture was higher among PLWH with several factors, including the parent’s hip. Fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid used. Further analysis on determining factors using multivariate regression analysis with a larger sample size is required to confirm the factors associated with the high fracture risk.

Keywords: HIV, PLWH, osteoporotic fractures, hip fractures, 10-year risk of fracture, FRAX

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Authors: A. Miškinytė, A. Dėdelė

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Road traffic is one of the main sources of air pollution in urban areas associated with adverse effects on human health and environment. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is considered as traffic-related air pollutant, which concentrations tend to be higher near highways, along busy roads and in city centres and exceedances are mainly observed in air quality monitoring stations located close to traffic. Atmospheric dispersion models can be used to examine emissions from many various sources and to predict the concentration of pollutants emitted from these sources into the atmosphere. The study aim was to compare modelled concentrations of nitrogen dioxide using ADMS-Urban dispersion model with air quality monitoring network in cold and warm seasons in Kaunas city. Modelled average seasonal concentrations of nitrogen dioxide for 2011 year have been verified with automatic air quality monitoring data from two stations in the city. Traffic station is located near high traffic street in industrial district and background station far away from the main sources of nitrogen dioxide pollution. The modelling results showed that the highest nitrogen dioxide concentration was modelled and measured in station located near intensive traffic street, both in cold and warm seasons. Modelled and measured nitrogen dioxide concentration was respectively 25.7 and 25.2 µg/m3 in cold season and 15.5 and 17.7 µg/m3 in warm season. While the lowest modelled and measured NO2 concentration was determined in background monitoring station, respectively 12.2 and 13.3 µg/m3 in cold season and 6.1 and 7.6 µg/m3 in warm season. The difference between monitoring station located near high traffic street and background monitoring station showed that better agreement between modelled and measured NO2 concentration was observed at traffic monitoring station.

Keywords: air pollution, nitrogen dioxide, modelling, ADMS-Urban model

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Authors: Lavdosh Lazemetaj

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The labor market in W.B. Countries presents problems and challenges, this is dictated by different risk factors. The levels of unemployment in the region are high and the rates of its reduction are a challenge. This paper presents these challenges and problems that the countries face. of the BP region. The region as a whole and the countries in their particularity are analyzed, according to the specifics, the development trends related to the labor market are looked at. Conclusions are also given that emerge from the analysis of the labor markets prior to the monitoring done by the EU and the World Bank.

Keywords: Economic Development, European Union, Economic Growth, Labor Market

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Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

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This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), risk factors

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Authors: Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi, Jordi Moreno Gené

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Managerial actions which negatively profile banks and impair corporate reputation are addressed through effective internal control systems. Disregard for acceptable standards and procedures for granting credit have affected bank loan portfolios and could be cited for the crises in some European countries. The study intends to determine the effectiveness of internal control systems, investigate whether perceived agency problems exist on the part of board members and to establish the relationship between internal controls and credit risk among listed banks in the European Union. Drawing theoretical support from the behavioural compliance and agency theories, about seventeen internal control variables (drawn from the revised COSO framework), bank-specific, country, stock market and macro-economic variables will be involved in the study. A purely quantitative approach will be employed to model internal control variables covering the control environment, risk management, control activities, information and communication and monitoring. Panel data from 2005-2014 on listed banks from 28 European Union countries will be used for the study. Hypotheses will be tested and the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) regression will be run to establish the relationship between dependent and independent variables. The Hausman test will be used to select whether random or fixed effect model will be used. It is expected that listed banks will have sound internal control systems but their effectiveness cannot be confirmed. A perceived agency problem on the part of the board of directors is expected to be confirmed. The study expects significant effect of internal controls on credit risk. The study will uncover another perspective of internal controls as not only an operational risk issue but credit risk too. Banks will be cautious that observing effective internal control systems is an ethical and socially responsible act since the collapse (crisis) of financial institutions as a result of excessive default is a major contagion. This study deviates from the usual primary data approach to measuring internal control variables and rather models internal control variables in a quantitative approach for the panel data. Thus a grey area in approaching the revised COSO framework for internal controls is opened for further research. Most bank failures and crises could be averted if effective internal control systems are religiously adhered to.

Keywords: agency theory, credit risk, internal controls, revised COSO framework

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Authors: Jorge M. Uribe

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We propose a methodology for setting the price of an insurance contract targeted to manage the risk associated with weather conditions that affect variable renewable energy generation. The methodology relies on conditional quantile regressions to estimate the weather risk of a solar panel. It is illustrated using real daily radiation and weather data for three cities in Spain (Valencia, Barcelona and Madrid) from February 2/2004 to January 22/2019. We also adapt the concepts of value at risk and expected short fall from finance to this context, to provide a complete panorama of what we label as weather risk. The methodology is easy to implement and can be used by insurance companies to price a contract with the aforementioned characteristics when data about similar projects and accurate cash flow projections are lacking. Our methodology assigns a higher price to an insurance product with the stated characteristics in Madrid, compared to Valencia and Barcelona. This is consistent with Madrid showing the largest interquartile range of operational deficits and it is unrelated to the average value deficit, which illustrates the importance of our proposal.

Keywords: insurance, weather, vre, risk

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Authors: Kamila Mazur-Oleszczuk, Rafal Banasiuk, Dawid Krasnowski, Maciej Pek, Marcin Podgorski, Krzysztof Rykaczewski, Sabina Zoledowska, Dawid Nidzworski

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Workout safety is one of the most significant challenges of recreational sports. Loss of water and electrolytes is a consequence of thermoregulatory sweating during exercise. The rate of sweat loss and its chemical composition can fluctuate within and among individuals. That is why we propose our sportband 'Flow' as a device for monitoring these parameters. 'Flow' consists of two parts: an intelligent module and a mobile application. The application allows verifying the training progress and data archiving. The sportband intelligent module includes temperature, heart rate and pulse measurement (non-invasive, continuous methods of workout monitoring). Apart from the standard components, the device will consist of a sweat composition analyzer situated in sportband intelligent module. Sweat is a water solution of numerous compounds such as ions (sodium up to 1609 µg/ml, potassium up to 274 µg/ml), lactic acid (skin pH is between 4.5 - 6) and a small amount of glucose. Awareness of sweat composition allows personalizing electrolyte intake after training. A comprehensive workout monitoring (sweat composition, heart rate, blood oxygen level) will provide improvement in the training routine and time management, which is our goal for the development of the sweat composition analyzer.

Keywords: flow, sportband, sweat, workout monitoring

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Authors: Abderrazek Ben Maatoug, Ibrahim Fatnassi, Wassim Ben Ayed

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In this paper we investigate the issue of market risk quantification for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Islamic market equity. We use Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of potential risk in Islamic stock market, for long and short position, based on Riskmetrics model and the conditional parametric ARCH class model volatility with normal, student and skewed student distribution. The sample consist of daily data for the 2006-2014 of 11 Islamic stock markets indices. We conduct Kupiec and Engle and Manganelli tests to evaluate the performance for each model. The main finding of our empirical results show that (i) the superior performance of VaR models based on the Student and skewed Student distribution, for the significance level of α=1% , for all Islamic stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions (ii) Risk Metrics model, and VaR model based on conditional volatility with normal distribution provides the best accurate VaR estimations for both long and short trading positions for a significance level of α=5%.

Keywords: value-at-risk, risk management, islamic finance, GARCH models

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Authors: Seung Hun Lee, Sang Yeoup Lee

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Objectives: To investigate associations between degrees of obesity using correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors. Methods: BMI, waist circumference (WC), fasting insulin, fasting glucose, lipids, and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) area using computed tomographic images were measured in 113 obese female without cardiovascular disease (CVD). Correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors were analyzed in obese subgroups defined using sequential obesity indices. Results: Mean BMI and WC were 29.6 kg/m2 and 92.8 cm. BMI showed significant correlations with all five cardiometabolic risk factors until the BMI cut-off point reached 27 kg/m2, but when it exceeded 30 kg/m2, correlations no longer existed. WC was significantly correlated with all five cardiometabolic risk factors up to a value of 85 cm, but when WC exceeded 90 cm, correlations no longer existed. Conclusions: Our data suggest that moderate weight-loss goals may not be enough to ameliorate cardiometabolic markers in severely obese patients. Therefore, individualized weight-loss goals should be recommended to such patients to improve health benefits.

Keywords: correlation, cardiovascular disease, risk factors, obesity

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Authors: Shervin Alaei, Reza Moradi

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Trading in financial markets is subject to risks due to their high volatilities. Here, using an LSTM neural network, and by doing some risk-based feature engineering tasks, we developed a method that can accurately predict trends of the Tehran stock exchange market index from a few days ago. Our test results have shown that the proposed method with an average prediction accuracy of more than 94% is superior to the other common machine learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating deep learning and risk factors to accurately predict market trends.

Keywords: deep learning, LSTM, trend prediction, risk management, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Abdel-Monem Sayed Mohamed

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Egypt rapidly growing development is accompanied by increasing levels of standard living particular in its urban areas. However, there is a limited experience in quantifying the sources of risk management in Egypt and in designing efficient strategies to keep away serious impacts of earthquakes. From the historical point of view and recent instrumental records, there are some seismo-active regions in Egypt, where some significant earthquakes had occurred in different places. The special tectonic features in Egypt: Aswan, Greater Cairo, Red Sea and Sinai Peninsula regions are the territories of a high seismic risk, which have to be monitored by up-to date technologies. The investigations of the seismic events and interpretations led to evaluate the seismic hazard for disaster prevention and for the safety of the dense populated regions and the vital national projects as the High Dam. In addition to the monitoring of the recent crustal movements, the most powerful technique of satellite geodesy GPS are used where geodetic networks are covering such seismo-active regions. The results from the data sets are compared and combined in order to determine the main characteristics of the deformation and hazard estimation for specified regions. The final compiled output from the seismological and geodetic analysis threw lights upon the geodynamical regime of these seismo-active regions and put Aswan and Greater Cairo under the lowest class according to horizontal crustal strains classifications. This work will serve a basis for the development of so-called catastrophic models and can be further used for catastrophic risk management. Also, this work is trying to evaluate risk of large catastrophic losses within the important regions including the High Dam, strategic buildings and archeological sites. Studies on possible scenarios of earthquakes and losses are a critical issue for decision making in insurance as a part of mitigation measures.

Keywords: b-value, Gumbel distribution, seismic and GPS data, strain parameters

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Authors: Pubudu K. Hitigala Kaluarachchilage, Champike Attanayake, Sasith Rajasooriya, Chris P. Tsokos

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Operating system (OS) security is a key component of computer security. Assessing and improving OSs strength to resist against vulnerabilities and attacks is a mandatory requirement given the rate of new vulnerabilities discovered and attacks occurring. Frequency and the number of different kinds of vulnerabilities found in an OS can be considered an index of its information security level. In the present study five mostly used OSs, Microsoft Windows (windows 7, windows 8 and windows 10), Apple’s Mac and Linux are assessed for their discovered vulnerabilities and the risk associated with each. Each discovered and reported vulnerability has an exploitability score assigned in CVSS score of the national vulnerability database. In this study the risk from vulnerabilities in each of the five Operating Systems is compared. Risk Indexes used are developed based on the Markov model to evaluate the risk of each vulnerability. Statistical methodology and underlying mathematical approach is described. Initially, parametric procedures are conducted and measured. There were, however, violations of some statistical assumptions observed. Therefore the need for non-parametric approaches was recognized. 6838 vulnerabilities recorded were considered in the analysis. According to the risk associated with all the vulnerabilities considered, it was found that there is a statistically significant difference among average risk levels for some operating systems, indicating that according to our method some operating systems have been more risk vulnerable than others given the assumptions and limitations. Relevant test results revealing a statistically significant difference in the Risk levels of different OSs are presented.

Keywords: cybersecurity, Markov chain, non-parametric analysis, vulnerability, operating system

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Authors: Jonghoon Kim, Gilwon Yoon

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A wrist-band type biosignal measurement system and its data transfer through human body communication (HBC) were investigated. An HBC method based on pulses of ultra-wide band instead of using frequency or amplitude modulations was studied and implemented since the system became very compact and it was more suited for personal or mobile health monitoring. Our system measured photo-plethysmogram (PPG) and measured PPG signals were transmitted through a finger to a monitoring PC system. The device was compact and low-power consuming. HBC communication has very strong security measures since it does not use wireless network. Furthermore, biosignal monitoring system becomes handy because it does not need to have wire connections.

Keywords: biosignal, human body communication, mobile health, PPG, ultrawide band

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Authors: Kitti Leangkrua

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This paper presents a risk-based maintenance strategy of a power transformer in order to optimize operating and maintenance costs. The methodology involves the study and preparation of a database for the collection the technical data and test data of a power transformer. An evaluation of the overall condition of each transformer is performed by a program developed as a result of the measured results; in addition, the calculation of the main equipment separation to the overall condition of the transformer (% HI) and the criteria for evaluating the importance (% ImI) of each location where the transformer is installed. The condition assessment is performed by analysis test data such as electrical test, insulating oil test and visual inspection. The condition of the power transformer will be classified from very poor to very good condition. The importance is evaluated from load criticality, importance of load and failure consequence. The risk matrix is developed for evaluating the risk of each power transformer. The high risk power transformer will be focused firstly. The computerized program is developed for practical use, and the maintenance strategy of a power transformer can be effectively managed.

Keywords: asset management, risk-based maintenance, power transformer, health index

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Authors: Wlodzimierz Ogryczak, Michal Przyluski, Tomasz Sliwinski

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In problems of portfolio selection, the reward-risk ratio criterion is optimized to search for a risky portfolio with the maximum increase of the mean return in proportion to the risk measure increase when compared to the risk-free investments. In the classical model, following Markowitz, the risk is measured by the variance thus representing the Sharpe ratio optimization and leading to the quadratic optimization problems. Several Linear Programming (LP) computable risk measures have been introduced and applied in portfolio optimization. In particular, the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) measure has been widely recognized. The reward-risk ratio optimization with the MAD measure can be transformed into the LP formulation with the number of constraints proportional to the number of scenarios and the number of variables proportional to the total of the number of scenarios and the number of instruments. This may lead to the LP models with huge number of variables and constraints in the case of real-life financial decisions based on several thousands scenarios, thus decreasing their computational efficiency and making them hardly solvable by general LP tools. We show that the computational efficiency can be then dramatically improved by an alternative model based on the inverse risk-reward ratio minimization and by taking advantages of the LP duality. In the introduced LP model the number of structural constraints is proportional to the number of instruments thus not affecting seriously the simplex method efficiency by the number of scenarios and therefore guaranteeing easy solvability. Moreover, we show that under natural restriction on the target value the MAD risk-reward ratio optimization is consistent with the second order stochastic dominance rules.

Keywords: portfolio optimization, reward-risk ratio, mean absolute deviation, linear programming

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Authors: Ljiljana Seric, Vladimir Divic, Marin Bugaric

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This paper presents methodology for spatial analysis of GIS data that is used for assessing the microlocation risk index from potential damages of high winds. The analysis is performed on freely available GIS data comprising information about wind load, terrain cover and topography of the area. The methodology utilizes the legislation of Eurocode norms for determination of wind load of buildings and constructions. The core of the methodology is adoption of the wind load parameters related to location on geographical spatial grid. Presented work is a part of the Wind Risk Project, supported by the European Commission under the Civil Protection Financial Instrument of the European Union (ECHO). The partners involved in Wind Risk project performed Wind Risk assessment and proposed action plan for three European countries – Slovenia, Croatia and Germany. The proposed method is implemented in GRASS GIS open source GIS software and demonstrated for Case study area of wider area of Split, Croatia. Obtained Wind Risk Index is visualized and correlated with critical infrastructures like buildings, roads and power lines. The results show good correlation between high Wind Risk Index with recent incidents related to wind.

Keywords: Eurocode norms, GIS, spatial analysis, wind distribution, wind risk

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

Abstract:

In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity

Procedia PDF Downloads 357

Authors: Kgantsi B. T., Ochwelwang A. R., Mathuthu M., Jegede O. A.

Abstract:

Anthropogenic activities near water bodies contribute to poor water quality, which degrades the condition of the biota and elevates the risk to human health. The Vaal River is essential in supplying Gauteng and neighboring regions of South Africa with portable water for a variety of consumers and industries. Consequently, it is necessary to monitor and assess the radioactive risk in relation to the river's water quality. This study used an inductive coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICPMS) to analyze the radionuclide activity concentration in the Vaal River, South Africa. Along with thorium and potassium, the total uranium concentration was calculated using the isotopic content of uranium. The elemental concentration of ²³⁸U, ²³⁵U, ²³⁴U, ²³²Th, and 40K were translated into activity concentrations. To assess the water safety for all users and consumers, all values were compared to world average activity concentrations 35, 30, and 400 Bqkg⁻¹ for ²³⁸U, ²³⁴Th, and ⁴⁰K, respectively, according to the UNSCEAR report. The results will serve as a database for further monitoring and evaluation of the radionuclide from the river, taking cognisance of potential health hazards.

Keywords: Val Rivers, ICPMS, uranium, risks

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Sunita Patel

Abstract:

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of morbidity as well as mortality in India. Objective of this study is to examine CVDs prevalence and identify their behavioral and cultural risk factors with the help of SAGE-2007 data conducted on 6th states in India. Findings reveal that 18.3% of people diagnosed with CVDs in India. Higher disease occurs in an increasing rate between ages of 30-39 having OR 2.45 (CI: 1.66-3.63) and 70+ age OR 7.45 (CI: 4.82-11.49) times higher compare to 18-29 age group respectively. Wealth quintile higher CVD occurs as 3rd in 60% (CI: 1.16-2.21) and in richest 5th quintile 58% (CI: 1.13-2.21) contrast to lowest quintile. Relative risk depicted that 22.4% in moderate and 44% in vigorous activity have less chance of diseases compare to who performed no work and those who consumed alcohol. Results reveal that policy prospect should be recommended and that it would be beneficial for awareness of people and their future.

Keywords: behavioral risk, cultural risk, cardio-vascular diseases, wealth quintile

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Authors: George Mariano Soriano

Abstract:

In this study, a Rapid Earthquake Risk Ranking Criteria was formulated by integrating various existing maps and databases by the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) and Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Utilizing Geographic Information System (GIS) software, the above-mentioned maps and databases were used in extracting seismic hazard parameters and bridge vulnerability characteristics in order to rank the seismic damage risk rating of bridges in the National Capital Region.

Keywords: bridge, earthquake, GIS, hazard, risk, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 377