Search results for: risk based index

Authors: Nguyen Quang Kim, Nguyen Thu Hien, Nguyen Thien Dung

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Flood disasters are increasing worldwide in both frequency and magnitude. Every year in Vietnam, flood causes great damage to people, property, and environmental degradation. The flood risk management policy in Vietnam is currently updated. The planning of flood mitigation strategies is reviewed to make a decision how to reach sustainable flood risk reduction. This paper discusses the basic approach where the measures of flood protection are chosen based on minimizing the present value of expected monetary expenses, total residual risk and costs of flood control measures. This approach will be proposed and demonstrated in a case study for flood risk management in Vinh Phuc province of Vietnam. Research also proposed the framework to find a solution of optimal protection level and optimal measures of the flood. It provides an explicit economic basis for flood risk management plans and interactive effects of options for flood damage reduction. The results of the case study are demonstrated and discussed which would provide the processing of actions helped decision makers to choose flood risk reduction investment options.

Keywords: drainage plan, flood planning, flood risk, residual risk, risk optimization

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Authors: Hillary Onyeka Abugu, Valentine Chinakwugwo Ezea, Janefrances Ngozi Ihedioha, Nwachukwu Romanus Ekere

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The study assessed the spring water quality in Igbo-Etiti, Nigeria, for drinking and irrigation application using Physico-chemical parameters, water quality index, mineral and trace elements, pollution indices and risk assessment. Standard methods were used to determine the physicochemical properties of the spring water in rainy and dry seasons. Trace metals such as Pb, Cd, Zn and Cu were determined with atomic absorption spectrophotometer. The results showed that most of the physicochemical properties studied were within the guideline values set by Nigeria Standard for Drinking Water Quality (NSDWQ), WHO and US EPA for drinking water purposes. However, pH of all the spring water (4.27- 4.73; and 4.95- 5.73), lead (Pb) (0.01-1.08 mg/L) and cadmium (Cd) (0.01-0.15 mg/L) concentrations were above the guideline values in both seasons. This could be attributed to the lithography of the study area, which is the Nsukka formation. Leaching of lead and sulphides from the embedded coal deposits could have led to the increased lead levels and made the water acidic. Two-way ANOVA showed significant differences in most of the parameters studied in dry and rainy seasons. Pearson correlation analysis and cluster analysis showed strong significant positive and negative correlations in some of the parameters studied in both seasons. The water quality index showed that none of the spring water had excellent water status. However, one spring (Iyi Ase) had poor water status in dry season and is considered unsafe for drinking. Iyi Ase was also considered not suitable for irrigation application as predicted by most of the pollution indices, while others were generally considered suitable for irrigation application. Probable cancer and non-cancer risk assessment revealed a probable risk associated with the consumption of the spring in the Igbo-Ettiti area, Nigeria.

Keywords: water quality, pollution index, risk assessment, physico-chemical parameters

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Authors: M. Safa, A. Sabet, S. MacGillivray, M. Davidson, K. Kaczmarczyk, C. T. Haas, G. E. Gibson, D. Rayside

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To address construction project requirements and specifications, scholars and practitioners need to establish a taxonomy according to a scheme that best fits their need. While existing characterization methods are continuously being improved, new ones are devised to cover project properties which have not been previously addressed. One such method, the Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI), has received limited consideration strictly as a classification scheme. Developed by the Construction Industry Institute (CII) in 1996, the PDRI has been refined over the last two decades as a method for evaluating a project's scope definition completeness during front-end planning (FEP). The main contribution of this study is a review of practical project classification methods, and a discussion of how PDRI can be used to classify projects based on their readiness in the FEP phase. The proposed model has been applied to 59 construction projects in Ontario, and the results are discussed.

Keywords: project classification, project definition rating index (PDRI), risk, project goals alignment

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Authors: Xiaohong Xu, Tianchu Zhang, Yangfan Chen, Rongtai Tan

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In Canada, Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) is a scale designed to help residences understand the impact of air quality on human health. In Ontario, Canada, AQHI was implemented in June 2015. This study investigated temporal variability of daily AQHI and impact of regional transport on AQHI in Windsor, Ontario, Canada from 2016 to 2019. During 2016–2019, 1428 daily AQHIs were recorded in Windsor Downtown Station. Among those, the AQHIs were at the low health risk level (AQHI = 1, 2 or 3) in 82% of days, only a few days at high risk level (AQHI = 7), the rest were at moderate health risk level (AQHI = 4, 5, 6), indicating air quality in Windsor was fairly good with relatively low health risk. The annual mean AQHI value decreased from 2.95 in 2016 to 2.81 in 2019, demonstrating the improvement of air quality. Half of the days, AQHI were 3 regardless of season. AQHI was higher in the warm season (3.1) than in the cold season (2.6) due to more frequent moderate risk days (27%, AQHI = 4) in warm season and more frequent low risk days (42%, AQHI = 2) in the cold season. Among the three pollutants considered in AQHI calculation, O3 was the most frequently reported dominant contributor to daily AQHI (88% of days), followed by NO2 (12%), especially in the cold season, with small contribution from PM2.5 (<1%). In the past two decades, NO2 concentrations had decreased significantly and O3 concentrations had increased, resulting in daily AQHI being less reliance on NO2 (from 51% of days being the primary contributor during 2003–2010 to 12% during 2016–2019) and more on O3 concentrations (49% to 88%). Trajectory analysis found that AQHI ≤ 3 days were closely associated with air masses from the north and northwest, whereas AQHI > 3 days were closely associated with air masses from the west and southwest. This is because northerly flows brought in clear air mass owing to less industrial facilities, while polluted air masses were transported from the south of Windsor, where several industrial states of the US were located. Overall, O3 concentrations dictate the daily AQHI values, the seasonal variability of AQHI, and the impact of regional transport on AQHI in Windsor. This makes further reductions of AQHI challenging because O3 concentrations are likely to continue increasing due to weakened consumption of O3 by NO owing to decreasing NO emissions and more hot days because of climate change. The predominant and increasing contribution of O3 to AQHI calls for more effective control measures to mitigate O3 pollution and its impact on human health and the environment.

Keywords: air quality, Air Quality Health Index (AQHI), hysplit, regional transport, windsor

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Authors: Levent Basayigit, Mert Dedeoglu, Fadime Ozogul

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In this study, an application was carried out to determine the Volcanic Soils by using remote sensing.  The study area was located on the Golcuk formation in Isparta-Turkey. The thermal bands of Landsat 7 image were used for processing. The implementation of the climate model that was based on the water index was used in ERDAS Imagine software together with pixel based image classification. Soil Moisture Index (SMI) was modeled by using the surface temperature (Ts) which was obtained from thermal bands and vegetation index (NDVI) derived from Landsat 7. Surface moisture values were grouped and classified by using scoring system. Thematic layers were compared together with the field studies. Consequently, different moisture levels for volcanic soils were indicator for determination and separation. Those thermal wavelengths are preferable bands for separation of volcanic soils using moisture and temperature models.

Keywords: Landsat 7, soil moisture index, temperature models, volcanic soils

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Authors: Achilles Kameas, Eleni Georgakakou, Anna Lisa Amodeo, Aideen Quilty, Aisling Malone, Roberta Albertazzi, Moises Carmona, Concetta Esposito, Ruben David Fernandez Carrasco, Carmela Ferrara, Francesco Garzillo, Mojca Pusnik, Maria Cristina Scarano

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While researchers, especially in academia, study and research the phenomena of inclusion of sexual minority and gender marginalized groups, seldom the European Higher Education Institutions (HEI) act on lowering the cultural and educational barriers to their proactive inclusion. The challenge in European HEIs is that gender, and sexual orientation discrimination remains an issue not adequately addressed. Following a mixed methods research design of quantitative and qualitative research techniques and tools, which is applied in five (5) European countries (Italy, Greece, Ireland, Slovenia, and Spain) and that combines desk research, evaluation, and weighting processes for a Matrix-based on Objective indicators and Survey for students and staff of the HEI to gauge the perception of inclusiveness in the HEI context, XENIA HEI Inclusiveness Index is an instrument that will allow universities to gauge and assess their inclusiveness in the domain of discrimination and exclusion based on gender identity and sexual orientation. The index will allow capturing the depth and reach of policies, programmes, and initiatives of HEIs in tackling the phenomena and dynamics of exclusion of LGBT+ (lesbian, gay, bisexual, trans, and other marginalized groups on the basis of gender and sexual identity) and cisgender women exposed to the risk of discrimination.

Keywords: gender identity, higher education, LGBT+ rights, XENIA inclusiveness index

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Authors: Shamil Mardi Al Islam, Zaima Ahmed

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The aim of this article is to explore whether certain macroeconomic variables such as industrial index, inflation, broad money, exchange rate and deposit rate as a proxy for interest rate are interlinked with Dhaka stock price index (DSEX index) precisely after the introduction of new index by Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) since January 2013. Bangladesh stock market has experienced rapid growth since its inception. It might not be a very well-developed capital market as compared to its neighboring counterparts but has been a strong avenue for investment and resource mobilization. The data set considered consists of monthly observations, for a period of four years from January 2013 to June 2018. Findings from cointegration analysis suggest that DSEX and macroeconomic variables have a significant long-run relationship. VAR decomposition based on VAR estimated indicates that money supply explains a significant portion of variation of stock index whereas, inflation is found to have the least impact. Impact of industrial index is found to have a low impact compared to the exchange rate and deposit rate. Policies should there aim to increase industrial production in order to enhance stock market performance. Further reasonable money supply should be ensured by authorities to stimulate stock market performance.

Keywords: deposit rate, DSEX, industrial index, VAR

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Authors: Heba Abdelmotaal, Magdy Abdel-Kader

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Purpose: This study explores whether a firm’s effective political risk management is preventing real and accrual earnings management . Design/methodology/approach: Based on a sample of 130 firms operating in Egypt during the period 2008-2013, two hypotheses are tested using the panel data regression models. Findings: The empirical findings indicate a significant relation between real and accrual earnings management and political risk. Originality/value: This paper provides a statistically evidence on the effects of the political risk management failure on the mangers’ engagement in the real and accrual earnings management practices, and its impact on the firm’s performance.

Keywords: political risk, risk management failure, real activities manipulation, accrual earnings management

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Authors: Salima Smiti, Ines Gasmi, Makram Soui

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Credit risk is the most important issue for financial institutions. Its assessment becomes an important task used to predict defaulter customers and classify customers as good or bad payers. To this objective, numerous techniques have been applied for credit risk assessment. However, to our knowledge, several evaluation techniques are black-box models such as neural networks, SVM, etc. They generate applicants’ classes without any explanation. In this paper, we propose to assess credit risk using rules classification method. Our output is a set of rules which describe and explain the decision. To this end, we will compare seven classification algorithms (JRip, Decision Table, OneR, ZeroR, Fuzzy Rule, PART and Genetic programming (GP)) where the goal is to find the best rules satisfying many criteria: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. The obtained results confirm the efficiency of the GP algorithm for German and Australian datasets compared to other rule-based techniques to predict the credit risk.

Keywords: credit risk assessment, classification algorithms, data mining, rule extraction

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Authors: Lamia Hammadi, Abdellah Ait Ouhman, Aomar Ibourk

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It is widely assumed that the case of Customs Supply Chain is classified as a complex system, due to not only the variety and large number of actors, but also their complex structural links, and the interactions between these actors, that’s why this system is subject to various types of Risks. The economic, political and social impacts of those risks are highly detrimental to countries, businesses and the public, for this reason, Risk management in the customs supply chain is becoming a crucial issue to ensure the sustainability, security and safety. The main characteristic of customs risk management approach is determining which goods and means of transport should be examined? To what extend? And where future compliance resources should be directed? The purposes of this article are, firstly to deal with the concept of customs supply chain, secondly present our risk management approach based on Cross Activity Based Costing (ABC) Method as an interactive tool to support decision making in customs risk management. Finally, analysis of case study of Moroccan customs to putting theory into practice and will thus draw together the various elements of a structured and efficient risk management approach.

Keywords: cross ABC method, customs supply chain, risk, risk management

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Authors: S. B. D. Samarasinghe, Malini Herath

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Participatory planning is a very important process for decision making and choosing the best alternative options for community welfare, development of the society and its interactions among community and professionals. People’s involvement is considered as the key guidance in participatory planning. Presently, Participatory planning is being used in many fields. It's not only limited to planning but also to disaster management, poverty, housing, etc. In the past, Disaster management practice was a top-down approach, but it raised many issues as it was converted to a bottom-up approach. There are several approaches that can aid disaster management. Community-Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) is a very successful participatory approach to risk management that is often successfully applied by other disaster-prone countries. In the local context, CBDRM has been applied to prevent Diseases as well as to prevent disasters such as landslides, tsunamis and floods. From three years before, Sri Lanka has initiated the CBDRM approach to minimize landslide vulnerability. Hence, this study mainly focuses on the impact of CBDRM approaches on landslide hazards. Also to identify their successes and failures from both implementing parties and community. This research is carried out based on a qualitative method combined with a descriptive research approach. A successful framework was prepared via a literature review. Case studies were selected considering landslide CBDRM programs which were implemented by Disaster Management Center and National Building Research Organization in Badulla. Their processes were evaluated. Data collection is done through interviews and informal discussions. Then their ideas were quantified by using the Relative Effectiveness index. The resulting numerical value was used to rank the program effectiveness and their success, failures and impacting factors. Results show that there are several failures among implementing parties and the community. Overcoming those factors can make way for better conduction of future CBDRM programs.

Keywords: community-based disaster risk management, disaster management, preparedness, landslide

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Authors: N. Fuad, M. N. Taib, R. Jailani, M. E. Marwan

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In this paper, the comparison between k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) algorithms for classifying the 3D EEG model in brain balancing is presented. The EEG signal recording was conducted on 51 healthy subjects. Development of 3D EEG models involves pre-processing of raw EEG signals and construction of spectrogram images. Then, maximum PSD values were extracted as features from the model. There are three indexes for the balanced brain; index 3, index 4 and index 5. There are significant different of the EEG signals due to the brain balancing index (BBI). Alpha-α (8–13 Hz) and beta-β (13–30 Hz) were used as input signals for the classification model. The k-NN classification result is 88.46% accuracy. These results proved that k-NN can be used in order to predict the brain balancing application.

Keywords: power spectral density, 3D EEG model, brain balancing, kNN

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Authors: A. Sathiya Susuman, Hamisi F. Hamisi

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Background: Many socio-economic and demographic data are age-sex attributed. However, a variety of irregularities and misstatement are noted with respect to age-related data and less to sex data because of its biological differences between the genders. Noting the misstatement/misreporting of age data regardless of its significance importance in demographics and epidemiological studies, this study aims at assessing the quality of 2012 Tanzania Population and Housing Census Results. Methods: Data for the analysis are downloaded from Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics. Age heaping and digit preference were measured using summary indices viz., Whipple’s index, Myers’ blended index, and Age-Sex Accuracy index. Results: The recorded Whipple’s index for both sexes was 154.43; male has the lowest index of about 152.65 while female has the highest index of about 156.07. For Myers’ blended index, the preferences were at digits ‘0’ and ‘5’ while avoidance were at digits ‘1’ and ‘3’ for both sexes. Finally, Age-sex index stood at 59.8 where sex ratio score was 5.82 and age ratio scores were 20.89 and 21.4 for males and female respectively. Conclusion: The evaluation of the 2012 PHC data using the demographic techniques has qualified the data inaccurate as the results of systematic heaping and digit preferences/avoidances. Thus, innovative methods in data collection along with measuring and minimizing errors using statistical techniques should be used to ensure accuracy of age data.

Keywords: age heaping, digit preference/avoidance, summary indices, Whipple’s index, Myer’s index, age-sex accuracy index

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Authors: Amol Lanke, Hadi Hoseinie, Behzad Ghodrati

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OEE has been used in many industries as measure of performance. However due to limitations of original OEE, it has been modified by various researchers. OEE for mining application is special version of classic equation, carries these limitation over. In this paper it has been aimed to modify the OEE for mining application by introducing the weights to the elements of it and termed as Mine Production index (MPi). As a special application of new index MPi shovel has been developed by team of experts and researchers for evaluating the shovel effectiveness. Based on analysis, utilization followed by performance and availability were ranked in this order. To check the applicability of this index, a case study was done on four electrical and one hydraulic shovel in a Swedish mine. The results shows that MPishovelcan properly evaluate production effectiveness of shovels and determine effectiveness values in optimistic view compared to OEE. MPi with calculation not only give the effectiveness but also can predict which elements should be focused for improving the productivity.

Keywords: mining, overall equipment efficiency (OEE), mine production index, shovels

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Authors: Paschal Ohalehi

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Purpose - The purpose of this paper, which is part of a PhD thesis is to examine the role of risk based approach in minimising financial crime in the charity sector as well as offer recommendations to improving the quality of charity regulation whilst still retaining risk based approach as a regulatory framework and also making a case for a new regulatory model. Increase in financial crimes in the charity sector has put the role of regulation in minimising financial crime up for debates amongst researchers and practitioners. Although previous research has addressed the regulation of charities, research on the role of risk based approach to minimising financial crime in the charity sector is limited. Financial crime is a concern for all organisation including charities. Design/methodology/approach - This research adopts a social constructionist’s epistemological position. This research is carried out using semi structured in-depth interviews amongst randomly selected 24 charity trustees divided into three classes: 10 small charities, 10 medium charities and 4 large charities. The researcher also interviewed 4 stakeholders (NFA, Charity Commission and two different police forces in terms of size and area of coverage) in the charity sector. Findings - The results of this research show that reliance on risk based approach to financial crime in the sector is weak and fragmented with the research pointing to a clear evidence of disconnect between the regulator and the regulated leading to little or lack of regulation of trustees’ activities, limited monitoring of charities and lack of training and awareness on financial crime in the sector. Originality – This paper shows how regulation of charities in general and risk based approach in particular can be improved in order to meet the expectations of the stakeholders, the public, the regulator and the regulated.

Keywords: risk, risk based approach, financial crime, fraud, self-regulation

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Authors: Tommy Krieger, Klaus Gruendler

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We present a novel approach for measuring democracy, which enables a very detailed and sensitive index. This method is based on Support Vector Machines, a mathematical algorithm for pattern recognition. Our implementation evaluates 188 countries in the period between 1981 and 2011. The Support Vector Machines Democracy Index (SVMDI) is continuously on the 0-1-Interval and robust to variations in the numerical process parameters. The algorithm introduced here can be used for every concept of democracy without additional adjustments, and due to its flexibility it is also a valuable tool for comparison studies.

Keywords: democracy, democracy index, machine learning, support vector machines

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Authors: Karim Kootahi, Seyed Abolhasan Naeini

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The soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC), which represents the relationship between suction and water content (or degree of saturation), is an important property of unsaturated soils. The conventional method for determining SWCC is through specialized testing procedures. Since these procedures require specialized unsaturated soil testing apparatus and lengthy testing programs, several index properties-based correlations have been developed for estimating the SWCC of fine-grained soils. There are, however, considerable inconsistencies among the published correlations and there is no validation study on the predictive ability of existing correlations. In the present study, all existing index properties-based correlations are evaluated using a high quality worldwide database. The performances of existing correlations are assessed both graphically and quantitatively using statistical measures. The results of the validation indicate that most of the existing correlations provide unacceptable estimates of degree of saturation but the most recent model appears to be promising.

Keywords: SWCC, correlations, index properties, validation

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Authors: Afifa Aslam, Muhammad Ibrahim, Abid Mahmood, Muhammad Usman Alvi, Fariha Jabeen, Umara Tabassum

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Many factors cause air pollution in Pakistan, which poses a significant threat to human health. Diesel fuel and gasoline motor vehicles, as well as industrial companies, pollute the air in Pakistan's cities. The study's goal is to determine the level of air pollution in a Pakistani industrial city and to establish risk levels for the health of the population. We measured the intensity of air pollution by chemical characterization and examination of air samples collected at stationary remark sites. The PM10 levels observed at all sampling sites, including residential, commercial, high-traffic, and industrial areas were well above the limits imposed by Pakistan EPA, the United States EPA, and WHO. We assessed the health risk via chemical factors using a methodology approved for risk assessment. All Igeo index values greater than one were considered moderately contaminated or moderately to severely contaminated. Heavy metals have a substantial risk of acute adverse effects. In Faisalabad, Pakistan, there was an enormously high risk of chronic effects produced by a heavy metal acquaintance. Concerning specified toxic metals, intolerable levels of carcinogenic risks have been determined for the entire population. As a result, in most of the investigated areas of Faisalabad, the indices and hazard quotients for chronic and acute exposure exceeded the permissible level of 1.0. In the current study, re-suspended roadside mineral dust, anthropogenic exhaust emissions from traffic and industry, and industrial dust were identified as major emission sources of elemental particulate contents. Because of the unacceptable levels of risk in the research area, it is strongly suggested that a comprehensive study of the population's health status as a result of air pollution should be conducted for policies to be developed against these risks.

Keywords: elemental composition, particulate pollution, Igeo index, health risk assessment, hazard quotient

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Authors: Shih-Pin Chen, Shih-Syuan You

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This study proposes a regression model with flexible spreads for fuzzy input-output data to cope with the situation that the existing measures cannot reflect the actual estimation error. The main idea is that a dissemblance index (DI) is carefully identified and defined for precisely measuring the actual estimation error. Moreover, the graded mean integration (GMI) representation is adopted for determining more representative numeric regression coefficients. Notably, to comprehensively compare the performance of the proposed model with other ones, three different criteria are adopted. The results from commonly used test numerical examples and an application to Taiwan's business monitoring indicator illustrate that the proposed dissemblance index method not only produces valid fuzzy regression models for fuzzy input-output data, but also has satisfactory and stable performance in terms of the total estimation error based on these three criteria.

Keywords: dissemblance index, forecasting, fuzzy sets, linear regression

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Authors: Dipak Sonawane, Sudarshan Daga, Somesh Gupta

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Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is a very precise and consistent approach to defining the likelihood, consequence and severity of a major incident/accident. A variety of hazardous cargoes in bulk, such as hydrocarbons and flammable/toxic chemicals, are handled at various ports. It is well known that most of the operations are hazardous, having the potential of damaging property, causing injury/loss of life and, in some cases, the threat of environmental damage. In order to ensure adequate safety towards life, environment and property, the application of scientific methods such as QRA is inevitable. By means of these methods, comprehensive hazard identification, risk assessment and appropriate implementation of Risk Control measures can be carried out. In this paper, the authors, based on their extensive experience in Risk Analysis for ports and harbors, have exhibited how QRA can be used in practice to minimize and contain risk to tolerable levels. A specific case involving the operation for unloading of hydrocarbon at a port is presented. The exercise provides confidence that the method of QRA, as proposed by the authors, can be used appropriately for the identification of hazards and risk assessment of Ports and Terminals.

Keywords: quantitative risk assessment, hazard assessment, consequence analysis, individual risk, societal risk

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Authors: Abhijitsinh Gohil, Kaushal Wadhvaniya, Kuldipsinh Jadeja

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Road Safety is a multi-sectoral and multi-dimensional issue. An effective model can assess the risk associated with highway safety. A questionnaire survey is very essential to identify the events or activities which are causing unsafe condition for traffic on an urban highway. A questionnaire of standard questions including vehicular, human and infrastructure characteristics can be made. Responses from the age wise group of road users can be taken on field. Each question or an event holds a specific risk weightage, which contributes in creating an inappropriate and unsafe flow of traffic. The probability of occurrence of an event can be calculated from the data collected from the road users. Finally, the risk score can be calculated by considering the risk factor and the probability of occurrence of individual event and addition of all risk score for the individual event will give the total risk score of a particular road. Standards for risk score can be made and total risk score can be compared with the standards. Thus road can be categorized based on risk associated and traffic safety on it. With this model, one can assess the need for traffic safety improvement on a given road, and qualitative data can be analysed.

Keywords: probability of occurrence, questionnaire, risk factor, risk score

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Authors: Yelin Zhao, Xinxiu Li, Martin Smelik, Oleg Sysoev, Firoj Mahmud, Dina Mansour Aly, Mikael Benson

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Background: Early diagnosis of pancreatic cancer is clinically challenging due to vague, or no symptoms, and lack of biomarkers. Polygenic risk score (PRS) scores may provide a valuable tool to assess increased or decreased risk of PC. This study aimed to develop such PRS by filtering genetic variants identified by GWAS using transcriptional programs identified by single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq). Methods: ScRNA-seq data from 24 pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) tumor samples and 11 normal pancreases were analyzed to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in in tumor and microenvironment cell types compared to healthy tissues. Pathway analysis showed that the DEGs were enriched for hundreds of significant pathways. These were clustered into 40 “programs” based on gene similarity, using the Jaccard index. Published genetic variants associated with PDAC were mapped to each program to generate program PRSs (pPRSs). These pPRSs, along with five previously published PRSs (PGS000083, PGS000725, PGS000663, PGS000159, and PGS002264), were evaluated in a European-origin population from the UK Biobank, consisting of 1,310 PDAC participants and 407,473 non-pancreatic cancer participants. Stepwise Cox regression analysis was performed to determine associations between pPRSs with the development of PC, with adjustments of sex and principal components of genetic ancestry. Results: The PDAC genetic variants were mapped to 23 programs and were used to generate pPRSs for these programs. Four distinct pPRSs (P1, P6, P11, and P16) and two published PRSs (PGS000663 and PGS002264) were significantly associated with an increased risk of developing PC. Among these, P6 exhibited the greatest hazard ratio (adjusted HR[95% CI] = 1.67[1.14-2.45], p = 0.008). In contrast, P10 and P4 were associated with lower risk of developing PC (adjusted HR[95% CI] = 0.58[0.42-0.81], p = 0.001, and adjusted HR[95% CI] = 0.75[0.59-0.96], p = 0.019). By comparison, two of the five published PRS exhibited an association with PDAC onset with HR (PGS000663: adjusted HR[95% CI] = 1.24[1.14-1.35], p < 0.001 and PGS002264: adjusted HR[95% CI] = 1.14[1.07-1.22], p < 0.001). Conclusion: Compared to published PRSs, scRNA-seq-based pPRSs may be used not only to assess increased but also decreased risk of PDAC.

Keywords: cox regression, pancreatic cancer, polygenic risk score, scRNA-seq, UK biobank

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Authors: Amel Oueslati, Olfa Benouda

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New Value at Risk (VaR) estimation is proposed and investigated. The well-known two stages Garch-EVT approach uses conditional volatility to generate one step ahead forecasts of VaR. With daily data for twelve stocks that decompose the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index, this paper incorporates the volume in the first stage volatility estimation. Afterwards, the forecasting ability of this conditional volatility concerning the VaR estimation is compared to that of a basic volatility model without considering any trading component. The results are significant and bring out the importance of the trading volume in the VaR measure.

Keywords: Garch-EVT, value at risk, volume, volatility

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Authors: R. Govender, T. C. Katsande, E. Madoroba, N. M. Thiebaut, D. Naidoo

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South African control over meat safety is managed by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF). Veterinary services department in each of the nine provinces in the country is tasked with overseeing the farm and abattoir segments of the meat supply chain. Abattoirs are privately owned. The number of abattoirs over the years has increased. This increase has placed constraints on government resources required to monitor these abattoirs. This paper presents empirical research results on the hygienic processing of meat in high and low throughout abattoirs. This paper presents a case for the adoption of risk-based regulation as a method of government control over hygiene and safe meat processing at abattoirs in South Africa. Recommendations are made to the DAFF regarding policy considerations on risk-based regulation as a model of control in South Africa.

Keywords: risk-based regulation, abattoir, food control, meat safety

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Authors: S. Cowley, M. Lawrance, D. Bick, R. McCord

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Technology that automates manual handling (musculoskeletal disorder or MSD) risk assessments is increasingly available to ergonomists, engineers, generalist health and safety practitioners alike. The risk assessment process is generally based on the use of wearable motion sensors that capture information about worker movements for real-time or for posthoc analysis. Traditionally, MSD risk assessment is undertaken with the assistance of a checklist such as that from the SafeWork Australia code of practice, the expert assessor observing the task and ideally engaging with the worker in a discussion about the detail. Automation enables the non-expert to complete assessments and does not always require the assessor to be there. This clearly has cost and time benefits for the practitioner but is it an improvement on the assessment by the human. Human risk assessments draw on the knowledge and expertise of the assessor but, like all risk assessments, are highly subjective. The complexity of the checklists and models used in the process can be off-putting and sometimes will lead to the assessment becoming the focus and the end rather than a means to an end; the focus on risk control is lost. Automated risk assessment handles the complexity of the assessment for the assessor and delivers a simple risk score that enables decision-making regarding risk control. Being machine-based, they are objective and will deliver the same each time they assess an identical task. However, the WHS professional needs to know that this emergent technology asks the right questions and delivers the right answers. Whether it improves the risk assessment process and results or simply distances the professional from the task and the worker. They need clarity as to whether automation of manual task risk analysis and reporting leads to risk control or to a focus on the worker. Critically, they need evidence as to whether automation in this area of hazard management leads to better risk control or just a bigger collection of assessments. Practitioner experienced determinants of this automated manual task risk analysis and reporting being a benefit or distraction will address an understanding of emergent risk assessment technology, its use and things to consider when making decisions about adopting and applying these technologies.

Keywords: automated, manual-handling, risk-assessment, machine-based

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Authors: Amirmohsen Behjat, Aleck Ostry, Christina Miewald, Bernie Pauly

Abstract:

Substantial research has indicated that socioeconomic and demographic characteristics’ of neighborhoods are strong determinants of food security. The aim of this study was to develop a Food Insecurity Neighborhood Index (FINI) based on the associated socioeconomic and demographic variables to identify the areas at potential risk of food insecurity in rural British Columbia (BC). Principle Component Analysis (PCA) technique was used to calculate the FINI for each rural Dissemination Area (DA) using the food security determinant variables from Canadian Census data. Using ArcGIS, the neighborhoods with the top quartile FINI values were classified as food insecure. The results of this study indicated that the most food insecure neighborhood with the highest FINI value of 99.1 was in the Bulkley-Nechako (central BC) area whereas the lowest FINI with the value of 2.97 was for a rural neighborhood in the Cowichan Valley area. In total, 98.049 (19%) of the rural population of British Columbians reside in high food insecure areas. Moreover, the distribution of food insecure neighborhoods was found to be strongly dependent on the degree of rurality in BC. In conclusion, the cluster of food insecure neighbourhoods was more pronounced in Central Coast, Mount Wadington, Peace River, Kootenay Boundary, and the Alberni-Clayoqout Regional Districts.

Keywords: neighborhood food insecurity index, socioeconomic and demographic determinants, principal component analysis, Canada census, ArcGIS

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Authors: Wlodzimierz Ogryczak, Michal Przyluski, Tomasz Sliwinski

Abstract:

In problems of portfolio selection, the reward-risk ratio criterion is optimized to search for a risky portfolio with the maximum increase of the mean return in proportion to the risk measure increase when compared to the risk-free investments. In the classical model, following Markowitz, the risk is measured by the variance thus representing the Sharpe ratio optimization and leading to the quadratic optimization problems. Several Linear Programming (LP) computable risk measures have been introduced and applied in portfolio optimization. In particular, the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) measure has been widely recognized. The reward-risk ratio optimization with the MAD measure can be transformed into the LP formulation with the number of constraints proportional to the number of scenarios and the number of variables proportional to the total of the number of scenarios and the number of instruments. This may lead to the LP models with huge number of variables and constraints in the case of real-life financial decisions based on several thousands scenarios, thus decreasing their computational efficiency and making them hardly solvable by general LP tools. We show that the computational efficiency can be then dramatically improved by an alternative model based on the inverse risk-reward ratio minimization and by taking advantages of the LP duality. In the introduced LP model the number of structural constraints is proportional to the number of instruments thus not affecting seriously the simplex method efficiency by the number of scenarios and therefore guaranteeing easy solvability. Moreover, we show that under natural restriction on the target value the MAD risk-reward ratio optimization is consistent with the second order stochastic dominance rules.

Keywords: portfolio optimization, reward-risk ratio, mean absolute deviation, linear programming

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Authors: Jianhua Zhang, Weiping Chen, Guanjie Chen, Jason Flannick, Emma Fikse, Glenda Smerin, Yanqin Yang, Yulong Li, John A. Hanover, William F. Simonds

Abstract:

Ethnic disparities in many diseases are well recognized and reflect the consequences of genetic, behavior, and environmental factors. However, direct scientific evidence connecting the ethnic genetic variations and the disease disparities has been elusive, which may have led to the ethnic inequalities in large scale genetic studies. Through the genome-wide analysis of data representing 185,934 subjects, including 14,955 from our own studies of the African America Diabetes Mellitus, we discovered sets of genetic variants either unique to or conserved in all ethnicities. We further developed a quantitative gene function-based high-risk variant index (hrVI) of 20,428 genes to establish profiles that strongly correlate with the subjects' self-identified ethnicities. With respect to the ability to detect human essential and pathogenic genes, the hrVI analysis method is both comparable with and complementary to the well-known genetic analysis methods, pLI and VIRlof. Application of the ethnicity-specific hrVI analysis to the type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) national repository, containing 20,791 cases and 24,440 controls, identified 114 candidate T2DM-associated genes, 8.8-fold greater than that of ethnicity-blind analysis. All the genes identified are defined as either pathogenic or likely-pathogenic in ClinVar database, with 33.3% diabetes-associated and 54.4% obesity-associated genes. These results demonstrate the utility of hrVI analysis and provide the first genetic evidence by clustering patterns of how genetic variations among ethnicities may impede the discovery of diabetes and foreseeably other disease-associated genes.

Keywords: diabetes-associated genes, ethnic health disparities, high-risk variant index, hrVI, T2DM

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Authors: Libena Cernohorska, Barbora Sutorova, Petr Teply

Abstract:

There are pending discussions over an impact of global regulatory efforts on banks. In this paper we present a literature review on the profitability-risk-capital relationship in banking. Research papers dealing with this topic can be divided into two groups: the first group focusing on a capital-risk relationship and the second group analyzing a capital-profitability relationship. The first group investigates whether the imposition of stricter capital requirements reduces risk-taking incentives of banks based on a simultaneous equations model. Their model pioneered the idea that the changes in both capital and risk have endogenous and exogenous components. The results obtained by the authors indicate that changes in the capital level are positively related to the changes in asset risk. The second group of the literature concentrating solely on the relationship between the level of held capital and bank profitability is limited. Nevertheless, there are a lot of studies dealing with the banks’ profitability as such, where bank capital is very often included as an explanatory variable. Based on the literature review of dozens of relevant papers in this study, an empirical research on banks’ profitability and risk adjustment decisions under new banking rules Basel III rules can be easily undertaken.

Keywords: bank, Basel III, capital, decision making, profitability, risk, simultaneous equations model

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Authors: Mahmut Yildirim

Abstract:

This paper proposed the bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) network-aided deep learning (DL)-based signal detection for Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing with all index modulation (OFDM-AIM), namely Bi-DeepAIM. OFDM-AIM is developed to increase the spectral efficiency of OFDM with index modulation (OFDM-IM), a promising multi-carrier technique for communication systems beyond 5G. In this paper, due to its strong classification ability, Bi-LSTM is considered an alternative to the maximum likelihood (ML) algorithm, which is used for signal detection in the classical OFDM-AIM scheme. The performance of the Bi-DeepAIM is compared with LSTM network-aided DL-based OFDM-AIM (DeepAIM) and classic OFDM-AIM that uses (ML)-based signal detection via BER performance and computational time criteria. Simulation results show that Bi-DeepAIM obtains better bit error rate (BER) performance than DeepAIM and lower computation time in signal detection than ML-AIM.

Keywords: bidirectional long short-term memory, deep learning, maximum likelihood, OFDM with all index modulation, signal detection

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