Search results for: residual risk

Authors: Pyung Soo Kim, Eung Hyuk Lee, Mun Suck Jang

Abstract:

In the current paper, a residual generation filter with finite memory structure is proposed for fault detection. The proposed finite memory residual generation filter provides the residual by real-time filtering of fault vector using only the most recent finite observations and inputs on the window. It is shown that the residual given by the proposed residual generation filter provides the exact fault for noise-free systems. Finally, to illustrate the capability of the proposed residual generation filter, numerical examples are performed for the discretized DC motor system having the multiple sensor faults.

Keywords: residual generation filter, finite memory structure, kalman filter, fast detection

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Authors: Muhammet Emre Turan, Sait Özçelik, Yavuz Sun

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In railway rails, residual stress was measured and the values of residual stress were associated with hardness and micro structure in this study. At first, three rails as one meter long were taken and residual stresses were measured by cutting method according to the EN 13674-1 standardization. In this study, strain gauge that is an electrical apparatus was used. During the cutting, change in resistance in rail gave us residual stress value via computer program. After residual stress measurement, Brinell hardness distribution were performed for head parts of rails. Thus, the relationship between residual stress and hardness were established. In addition to that, micro structure analysis was carried out by optical microscope. The results show that, the micro structure and hardness value was changed with residual stress.

Keywords: residual stress, hardness, micro structure, rail, strain gauge

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Authors: Nguyen Quang Kim, Nguyen Thu Hien, Nguyen Thien Dung

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Flood disasters are increasing worldwide in both frequency and magnitude. Every year in Vietnam, flood causes great damage to people, property, and environmental degradation. The flood risk management policy in Vietnam is currently updated. The planning of flood mitigation strategies is reviewed to make a decision how to reach sustainable flood risk reduction. This paper discusses the basic approach where the measures of flood protection are chosen based on minimizing the present value of expected monetary expenses, total residual risk and costs of flood control measures. This approach will be proposed and demonstrated in a case study for flood risk management in Vinh Phuc province of Vietnam. Research also proposed the framework to find a solution of optimal protection level and optimal measures of the flood. It provides an explicit economic basis for flood risk management plans and interactive effects of options for flood damage reduction. The results of the case study are demonstrated and discussed which would provide the processing of actions helped decision makers to choose flood risk reduction investment options.

Keywords: drainage plan, flood planning, flood risk, residual risk, risk optimization

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Authors: Negar Ganjouhaghighi, Amirali Dolatshahi

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The origin of most risks of a mega project usually takes place in the phases before closing the contract. As a practical point of view, using project risk management techniques for preparing a proposal is not a total solution for managing the risks of a contract. The objective of this paper is to cover all those activities associated with risk management of a mega project sale’s processes; from entrance to a new market to awarding activities and the review of contract performance. In this study, the risk management happens in six consecutive steps that are divided into three distinct but interdependent phases upstream of the award of the contract: pre-tendering, tendering and closing. In the first step, by preparing standard market risk report, risks of the new market are identified. The next step is the bid or no bid decision making based on the previous gathered data. During the next three steps in tendering phase, project risk management techniques are applied for determining how much contingency reserve must be added or reduced to the estimated cost in order to put the residual risk to an acceptable level. Finally, the last step which happens in closing phase would be an overview of the project risks and final clarification of residual risks. The sales experience of more than 20,000 MW turn-key power plant projects alongside this framework, are used to develop a software that assists the sales team to have a better project risk management.

Keywords: project marketing, risk management, tendering, project management, turn-key projects

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

Abstract:

Risk management in banking sector is a key issue linked to financial system stability and its importance has been elevated by technological developments and emergence of new financial instruments. In this paper, we improve the model previously defined for quantifying internal control impact on banking risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA. For this, we defined three equations and a maturity coefficient to obtain a mathematical model which is tested on all banking processes and type of risks. The new model allows an optimal assessment of residual criticality and improves the correlation rate that has become 98%.

Keywords: risk, control, banking, FMECA, criticality

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Authors: Kazeem Adesina Dauda, Waheed Babatunde Yahya

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To design a tree that maximizes within-node homogeneity, there is a need for a homogeneity measure that is appropriate for event history data with multiple risks. We consider the use of Deviance and Modified Cox-Snell residuals as a measure of impurity in Classification Regression Tree (CART) and compare our results with the results of Fiona (2008) in which homogeneity measures were based on Martingale Residual. Data structure approach was used to validate the performance of our proposed techniques via simulation and real life data. The results of univariate competing risk revealed that: using Deviance and Cox-Snell residuals as a response in within node homogeneity classification tree perform better than using other residuals irrespective of performance techniques. Bone marrow transplant data and double-blinded randomized clinical trial, conducted in other to compare two treatments for patients with prostate cancer were used to demonstrate the efficiency of our proposed method vis-à-vis the existing ones. Results from empirical studies of the bone marrow transplant data showed that the proposed model with Cox-Snell residual (Deviance=16.6498) performs better than both the Martingale residual (deviance=160.3592) and Deviance residual (Deviance=556.8822) in both event of interest and competing risks. Additionally, results from prostate cancer also reveal the performance of proposed model over the existing one in both causes, interestingly, Cox-Snell residual (MSE=0.01783563) outfit both the Martingale residual (MSE=0.1853148) and Deviance residual (MSE=0.8043366). Moreover, these results validate those obtained from the Monte-Carlo studies.

Keywords: within-node homogeneity, Martingale residual, modified Cox-Snell residual, classification and regression tree

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Authors: F. Husem, M. E. Turan, Y. Sun, H. Ahlatci, I. Tozlu

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Residual stress and fatigue crack growth rates are important to determine mechanical behavior of rails. This study aims to make relationship between residual stress and fatigue crack growth values in rails. For this purpose, three R260 quality rails (0.6-0.8% C, 0.6-1.25 Mn) were chosen. Residual stress of samples was measured by cutting method that is related in railway standard. Then samples were machined for fatigue crack growth test and analyze was completed according to the ASTM E647 standard which gives information about parameters of rails for this test. Microstructure characterizations were examined by Light Optic Microscope (LOM). The results showed that residual stress change with fatigue crack growth rate. The sample has highest residual stress exhibits highest crack growth rate and pearlitic structure can be seen clearly for all samples by microstructure analyze.

Keywords: residual stress, fatigue crack growth, R260, SEM, ASTM E647

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Authors: Anurag Niranjan, Michael Fitzpatrick, Yin Jin Janin, Jazeel Chukkan, Niall Smyth

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Fillet welds are used in joining longitudinal stiffeners in ship structures. Welding residual stresses in fillet welds are generally distributed in a non-uniform manner, as shown in previous research the residual stress redistribution occurs under the cyclic loading that is experienced by such joints during service, and the combination of the initial residual stress, local constraints, and loading can alter the stress field in ways that are extremely difficult to predict. As the residual stress influences the crack propagation originating from the toe of the fillet welds, full understanding of the residual stress field and how it evolves is very important for structural integrity calculations. Knowledge of the residual stress redistribution in the presence of a flaw is therefore required for better fatigue life prediction. Moreover, defect assessment procedures such as BS7910 offer very limited guidance for flaw acceptance and the associated residual stress redistribution in the assessment of fillet welds. Therefore the objective of this work is to study a surface-breaking flaw at the weld toe region in a fillet weld under cyclic load, in conjunction with residual stress measurement at pre-defined crack depths. This work will provide details of residual stress redistribution under cyclic load in the presence of a crack. The outcome of this project will inform integrity assessment with respect to the treatment of residual stress in fillet welds. Knowledge of the residual stress evolution for this weld geometry will be greatly beneficial for flaw tolerance assessments (BS 7910, API 591).

Keywords: fillet weld, fatigue, residual stress, structure integrity

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Authors: H. Gholami, M. Jalali Azizpour

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For materials such as hard coating whose stresses state are difficult to obtain by a widely used method called high-speed hole-drilling method (ASTM Standard E837). It is important to develop a non contact method. This process itself imposes an additional stresses. The through thickness residual stress of st37 steel using elector-discharge was investigated. The strain gage and dynamic strain indicator used in all cases was FRS-2-11 rosette type and TML 221, respectively. The average residual stress in depth of 320 µm was -6.47 MPa.

Keywords: HVOF, residual stress, thermal spray, WC-Co

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Authors: Harshadkumar Rajgor, Jeff Butterworth

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Background: Barretts oesophagus increases the risk of developing oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Over the last 40 years, there has been a 6 fold increase in the incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma in the western world and the incidence rates are increasing at a greater rate than cancers of the colon, breast and lung. Endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) is a relatively new technique being used by 2 centres in the greater midlands cancer network. EMR can be used for curative or staging purposes, for high-grade dysplasia’s and T1 tumours of the oesophagus. EMR is also suitable for those who are deemed high risk for oesophagectomy. EMR has a recurrence rate of 21% according to the Wiesbaden data. Method: A retrospective study of prospectively collected data was carried out involving 24 patients who had EMR for curative or staging purposes. Complications of residual or recurrent disease following EMR that required further treatment were investigated. Results: In 54% of cases residual or recurrent disease was suspected. 96% of patients were given clear and concise information regarding their diagnosis of high-grade dysplasia or T1 tumours. All 24 patients consulted the same specialist healthcare team. Conclusion: EMR is a safe and effective treatment for patients who have high-grade dysplasia and T1NO tumours. In 54% of cases residual or recurrent disease was suspected. Initially, only single resections were undertaken. Multiple resections are now being carried out to reduce the risk of recurrence. Complications from EMR remain low in this series and consisted of a single episode of post procedural bleeding.

Keywords: endoscopic mucosal resection, oesophageal dysplasia, T1 tumours, cancer network

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Authors: D. Sersab, M. Aberkane

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Residual stresses, in high-density polyethylene (HDPE) pipes, result from a nonhomogeneous cooling rate that occurs between the inner and outer surfaces during the extrusion process in manufacture. Most known methods of measurements to determine the magnitude and profile of the residual stresses in the pipe wall thickness are layer removal and ring slitting method. The combined layer removal and ring slitting methods described in this paper involves measurement of the circumferential residual stresses with minimal local disturbance. The existing methods used for pipe geometry (ring slitting method) gives a single residual stress value at the bore. The layer removal method which is used more in flat plate specimen is implemented with ring slitting method. The method permits stress measurements to be made directly at different depth in the pipe wall and a well-defined residual stress profile was consequently obtained.

Keywords: residual stress, layer removal, ring splitting, HDPE, wall thickness

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Authors: Aklilu Zeleke

Abstract:

A cross-sectional study was conducted in order to understand the effect of wet and dry seasons on the free residual chlorine and bacteriological contamination of the Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) water supply system. Water samples were taken at 30 selected distribution points and analyzed for Free Residual Chlorine and bacteriological analysis total coliforms and fecal coliform). It was found that some of the bacteriological data and Free Residual Chlorine levels are below the recommended values and beyond the maximum tolerable limits recommended by World Health Organization and Ethiopian National Standards. Water quality during the dry season is better than that of the wet season. There is a strong relationship between Free Residual Chlorine levels in drinking water and its bacteriological quality.

Keywords: addis ababa, wet season, dry season, free residual chlorine

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Information system risk management helps to reduce or eliminate risk by implementing appropriate controls. In this paper, we propose a quantification model of controls impact on information system risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA which is based on a inductive reasoning. For this, we defined three equations based on type and maturity of controls. For testing, the values obtained with the model were compared to estimated values given by interlocutors during different working sessions and the result is satisfactory. This model allows an optimal assessment of controls maturity and facilitates risk analysis of information system.

Keywords: information system, risk, control, FMECA method

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Authors: M. Jalali Azizpour, H. Mohammadi Majd, A.R. Aboudi Asl, D. Sajedipour, V. Tawaf

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Sandblasting is a generally used surface treatment technique to improve the residual stress and adhesion of coatings to substrate. The goal of this work is to study the effect of temperature on the residual stress in sandblasting AISI1045 substrate. For this purpose a two dimensional axisymmetric model of shot impacting on an AISI 1045 disc was generated using ABAQUS version 6.10. The result shows for sandblasting temperature there is an optimum condition. In addition there are other effective factors that influence the fatigue life of parts.

Keywords: modeling, shot peen, residual stress, temperature

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Authors: M. Gazzah, B. Jaouachi, F. Sakli

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This research focuses on the yarn-to-yarn and metal-to-fabric friction effects on the residual bagging behavior expressed by residual bagging height, volume and recovery of some denim fabrics. The results show, that both residual bagging height and residual bagging volume, which is determined using image analysis method, are significantly affected due to the most influential fabric parameter variations, the weft yarns density and the mean frictional coefficients. After the applied number of fatigue cycles, the findings revealed that the weft yarn rigidity contributes on fabric bagging behavior accurately. Among the tested samples, our results show that the elastic fabrics present a high recovery ability to give low bagging height and volume values.

Keywords: bagging recovery, denim fabric, metal-to-fabric friction, residual bagging height, yarn-to-yarn friction

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Authors: Yong Sun, Vladimir Luzin, Zhen Qian, William J. T. Daniel, Mingxing Zhang, Shichao Ding

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The residual stresses in roll formed products are generally very high and un-predictable. This is due to the occurrence of redundant plastic deformation in roll forming process and it can cause various product defects. Although the residual stresses of a roll formed product consist of longitudinal and transverse residual stresses components, but the longitudinal residual stresses plays a key role to the product defects of a roll formed product and therefore, only the longitudinal residual stresses concerned by the roll forming scholars and engineers. However, how to inspect the residual stresses of a product quickly and economically as a routine operation is still a challenge. This paper introduces a residual stresses measurement method called slope cutting method to study the longitudinal residual stresses through layers geometrically to a roll formed products or a product with similar process such as a rolled sheet. The detailed measuring procedure is given and discussed. The residual stresses variation through the layer can be derived based on the variation of curvature in different layers and steps. The slope cutting method has been explored and validated by experimental study on a roll-formed square tube. The neutron diffraction method is applied to validate the accuracy of the newly proposed layering removal materials results. The two set results agree with each other very well and therefore, the method is expected to be a routine testing method to monitor the quality of a product been formed and that is a great impact to roll forming industry.

Keywords: roll forming, residual stress, measurement method, neutron diffraction

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Authors: M. Sandeep Kumar, Vasu Velagapudi, A. Venugopal

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When machining is carried out on a workpiece, residual stresses are induced in the workpiece due to nonuniform thermal and mechanical loads. These stresses play a vital role in the surface integrity of the final product or the output. Inconel 718 is commonly used in critical structural components of aircraft engines due to its properties at high temperatures. Therefore it is important to keep down the stresses induced due to machining. This can be achieved through proper lubricating conditions. In this work, experiments were carried out to check the influence of the developed nanofluid as cutting fluids on residual stresses developed during the course of machining. The results of MQL/Nanofluids were compared with MQL/Vegetable oil and dry machining lubricating condition. Results indicate the reduction in residual stress with the use of MQL/Nanofluid.

Keywords: nanofluids, MQL, residual stress, Inconel-718

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Authors: Deepak Raj Bhat, Ryuichi Yatabe

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In this study, a residual-state creep failure model was developed based on the residual-state creep test results of clayey soils. To develop the proposed model, the regression analyses were done by using the R. The model results of the failure time (tf) and critical displacement (δc) were compared with experimental results and found in close agreements to each others. It is expected that the proposed regression model for residual-state creep failure will be more useful for the prediction of displacement of different clayey soils in the future.

Keywords: regression model, residual-state creep failure, displacement prediction, clayey soils

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Authors: Xuemei Yang, Xin Sun, Cheng Fu, Qiong Lan, Chao Han

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Residual stresses, which can be produced during the manufacturing process of plastic bonded explosive (PBX), play an important role in weapon system security and reliability. Residual stresses can and do change in service. This paper mainly studies the influence of vibratory stress relief (VSR) and thermal aging on residual stress of explosives. Firstly, the residual stress relaxation of PBX via different physical condition of VSR, such as vibration time, amplitude and dynamic strain, were studied by drill-hole technique. The result indicated that the vibratory amplitude, time and dynamic strain had a significant influence on the residual stress relief of PBX. The rate of residual stress relief of PBX increases first and then decreases with the increase of dynamic strain, amplitude and time, because the activation energy is too small to make the PBX yield plastic deformation at first. Then the dynamic strain, time and amplitude exceed a certain threshold, the residual stress changes show the same rule and decrease sharply, this sharply drop of residual stress relief rate may have been caused by over vibration. Meanwhile, the comparison between VSR and thermal aging was also studied. The conclusion is that the reduction ratio of residual stress after VSR process with applicable vibratory parameters could be equivalent to 73% of thermal aging with 7 days. In addition, the density attenuation rate, mechanical property, and dimensional stability with 3 months after VSR process was almost the same compared with thermal aging. However, compared with traditional thermal aging, VSR only takes a very short time, which greatly improves the efficiency of aging treatment for explosive materials. Therefore, the VSR could be a potential alternative technique in the industry of residual stress relaxation of PBX explosives.

Keywords: explosives, residual stresses, thermal aging, vibratory stress relief, VSR

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Authors: Michael Munther, Keivan Davami

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One significant roadblock for additively manufactured (AM) parts is the buildup of residual tensile stresses during the fabrication process. These residual stresses are formed due to the intense localized thermal gradients and high cooling rates that cause non-uniform material expansion/contraction and mismatched strain profiles during powder-bed fusion techniques, such as direct metal laser sintering (DMLS). The residual stresses adversely affect the fatigue life of the AM parts. Moreover, if the residual stresses become higher than the material’s yield strength, they will lead to acute geometric distortion. These are limiting the applications and acceptance of AM components for safety-critical applications. Herein, we discuss laser shock peening method as an advanced technique for the manipulation of the residual stresses in AM parts. An X-ray diffraction technique is used for the measurements of the residual stresses before and after the laser shock peening process. Also, the hardness of the structures is measured using a nanoindentation technique. Maps of nanohardness and modulus are obtained from the nanoindentation, and a correlation is made between the residual stresses and the mechanical properties. The results indicate that laser shock peening is able to induce compressive residual stresses in the structure that mitigate the tensile residual stresses and increase the hardness of AM IN718, a superalloy, almost 20%. No significant changes were observed in the modulus after laser shock peening. The results strongly suggest that laser shock peening can be used as an advanced post-processing technique to optimize the service lives of critical components for various applications.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, Inconel 718, laser shock peening, residual stresses

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Authors: Mohammad Heidari

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In this paper a method for high strength steel is proposed of residual stresses in autofrettaged tubes by combination of artificial neural networks is presented. Many different thick walled cylinders that were subjected to different conditions were studied. At first, the residual stress is calculated by analytical solution. Then by changing of the parameters that influenced in residual stresses such as percentage of autofrettage, internal pressure, wall ratio of cylinder, material property of cylinder, bauschinger and hardening effect factor, a neural network is created. These parameters are the input of network. The output of network is residual stress. Numerical data, employed for training the network and capabilities of the model in predicting the residual stress has been verified. The output obtained from neural network model is compared with numerical results, and the amount of relative error has been calculated. Based on this verification error, it is shown that the radial basis function of neural network has the average error of 2.75% in predicting residual stress of thick wall cylinder. Further analysis of residual stress of thick wall cylinder under different input conditions has been investigated and comparison results of modeling with numerical considerations shows a good agreement, which also proves the feasibility and effectiveness of the adopted approach.

Keywords: thick walled cylinder, residual stress, radial basis, artificial neural network

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Authors: Osamu Takakuwa, Yuta Mano, Hitoshi Soyama

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This paper reveals the interaction between hydrogen and surface stress in austenitic stainless steel by X-ray diffraction stress measurement and thermal desorption analysis before and after being charged with hydrogen. The surface residual stress was varied by surface finishing using several disc polishing agents. The obtained results show that the residual stress near surface had a significant effect on hydrogen absorption behavior, that is, tensile residual stress promoted the hydrogen absorption and compressive one did opposite. Also, hydrogen induced equi-biaxial stress and this stress has a linear correlation with hydrogen content.

Keywords: hydrogen embrittlement, residual stress, surface finishing, stainless steel

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Authors: Guilherme F. Guimaraes, Alfredo R. De Faria, Ronnie R. Rego, Andre L. R. D'Oliveira

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The development of methods for predicting manufacturing phenomena steadily grows due to their high potential to contribute to the component’s performance and durability. One of the most relevant phenomena in manufacturing is the residual stress state development through the manufacturing chain. In most cases, the residual stresses have their origin due to heterogenous plastifications produced by the processes. Although a few manufacturing processes have been successfully approached by numerical modeling, there is still a lack of understanding on how these processes' interactions will affect the final stress state. The objective of this work is to analyze the influence of previous stresses on the residual stress state induced by plastic deformation of a quasi-static indentation. The model consists of a simplified approach of shot peening, modeling four cases with variations in indenter size and force. This model was validated through topography, measured by optical 3D focus-variation, and residual stress, measured with the X-ray diffraction technique. The validated model was then exposed to several initial stress states, and the effect on the final residual stress was analyzed.

Keywords: plasticity, residual stress, finite element method, manufacturing

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Authors: Qian Zhao, Shi-Qi Liu, Bo Guo, Zhi-Jun Cheng, Xiao-Yue Wu

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Cold standby redundancy is considered to be an effective mechanism for improving system reliability and is widely used in industrial engineering. However, because of the complexity of the reliability structure, there is little literature studying on the residual life of cold standby system consisting of complex components. In this paper, a simulation method is presented to predict the residual life of k-out-of-n cold standby system. In practical cases, failure information of a system is either unknown, partly unknown or completely known. Our proposed method is designed to deal with the three scenarios, respectively. Differences between the procedures are analyzed. Finally, numerical examples are used to validate the proposed simulation method.

Keywords: cold standby system, k-out-of-n, residual life, simulation sampling

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Authors: Navid Zarif Karimi, Giangiacomo Minak, Parnian Kianfar

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Drilling is one of the most frequently used machining process for glass fiber reinforced polymer composites due to the need for structural joining. In drilling of composite laminates, interlaminar cracking, or delamination, has a detrimental effect on the compressive strength of these materials. The delamination can be controlled by adopting proper drilling condition. In this paper, the effect of feed rate, cutting speed and drill point angle on delamination and residual compressive strength of drilled GFRPs is studied. The objective is to find optimal conditions for maximum residual compressive strength.

Keywords: composite material, delamination, drilling, residual compressive strength

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Authors: Akram Khaleghei, Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, we investigate the residual life prediction problem for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model with unknown parameters. The parameter estimation procedure based on an EM algorithm is developed and the formulas for the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived, illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, residual life prediction

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Authors: M. A. Askari, M. A. Nazari, P. Perrier, Y. Payan

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Growth and remodeling of biological structures have gained lots of attention over the past decades. Determining the response of living tissues to mechanical loads is necessary for a wide range of developing fields such as prosthetics design or computerassisted surgical interventions. It is a well-known fact that biological structures are never stress-free, even when externally unloaded. The exact origin of these residual stresses is not clear, but theoretically, growth is one of the main sources. Extracting body organ’s shapes from medical imaging does not produce any information regarding the existing residual stresses in that organ. The simplest cause of such stresses is gravity since an organ grows under its influence from birth. Ignoring such residual stresses might cause erroneous results in numerical simulations. Accounting for residual stresses due to tissue growth can improve the accuracy of mechanical analysis results. This paper presents an original computational framework based on gradual growth to determine the residual stresses due to growth. To illustrate the method, we apply it to a finite element model of a healthy human face reconstructed from medical images. The distribution of residual stress in facial tissues is computed, which can overcome the effect of gravity and maintain tissues firmness. Our assumption is that tissue wrinkles caused by aging could be a consequence of decreasing residual stress and thus not counteracting gravity. Taking into account these stresses seems therefore extremely important in maxillofacial surgery. It would indeed help surgeons to estimate tissues changes after surgery.

Keywords: finite element method, growth, residual stress, soft tissue

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Authors: Mohammed El-Arbi Khalfallah, Mohamed Lakhdar Hadji

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Managing and controlling risk is a topic research in the world of finance. Before a risky situation, the stakeholders need to do comparison according to the positions and actions, and financial institutions must take measures of a particular market risk and credit. In this work, we study a model of risk measure in finance: Value at Risk (VaR), which is a new tool for measuring an entity's exposure risk. We explain the concept of value at risk, your average, tail, and describe the three methods for computing: Parametric method, Historical method, and numerical method of Monte Carlo. Finally, we briefly describe advantages and disadvantages of the three methods for computing value at risk.

Keywords: average value at risk, conditional value at risk, tail value at risk, value at risk

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Authors: Xuan Sun, Mingbo Tong

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In order to study the effect of hydrothermal environment on the fatigue properties of carbon fiber fabric composites, the experiments on fatigue and residual compressive strength with the center-hole laminates were carried out. For the experiments on fatigue in hydrothermal environment, an environmental chamber used for hydrothermal environment was designed, and the FLUENT was used to simulate the field of temperature in the environmental chamber, it proved that the design met the test requirements. In accordance with ASTM standard, the fatigue test fixture and compression test fixture were designed and produced. Then the tension-compression fatigue tests were carried out in conditions of standard environment (temperature of 23+2℃, relative humidity of 50+/-5%RH) and hydrothermal environment (temperature of 70 +2℃, relative humidity of 85+/-5%RH). After that, the residual compressive strength tests were carried out, respectively. The residual compressive strength after fatigue in condition of standard environment was set as a reference value, compared with the value in condition of hydrothermal environment, calculating the difference between them. According to the result of residual compressive strength tests, it shows that the residual compressive strength after fatigue in condition of hydrothermal environment was decreased by 13.5%,so the hydrothermal environment has little effect on the residual compressive strength of carbon fiber fabric composites laminates after fatigue under load spectrum in this research.

Keywords: carbon fiber, hydrothermal environment, fatigue, residual compressive strength

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Authors: Djarot B. Darmadi

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The wider growing Finite Element Method (FEM) application is caused by its benefits of cost saving and environment friendly. Also, by using FEM a deep understanding of certain phenomenon can be achieved. This paper observed the role of material properties and volumetric change when Solid State Phase Transformation (SSPT) takes place in residual stress formation due to a welding process of ferritic steels through coupled Thermo-Metallurgy-Mechanical (TMM) analysis. The correctness of FEM residual stress prediction was validated by experiment. From parametric study of the FEM model, it can be concluded that the material properties change tend to over-predicts residual stress in the weld center whilst volumetric change tend to underestimates it. The best final result is the compromise of both by incorporates them in the model which has a better result compared to a model without SSPT.

Keywords: residual stress, ferritic steels, SSPT, coupled-TMM

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