Search results for: residence time distribution

Authors: Ehan Sabah Shukri, Wirachman Wisnoe

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Temperature distribution investigation in a conical diffuser fitted with helical screw-tape with and without center-rod is studied numerically. A helical screw-tape is inserted in the diffuser to create swirl flow that helps to enhance the temperature distribution rate with inlet Reynolds number 4.3 x 104. Three pitch lengths ratios (Y/L = 0.153, 0.23 and 0.307) for the helical screw-tape with and without center-rod are simulated and compared. The geometry of the conical diffuser and the inlet condition for both arrangements are kept constant. Numerical findings show that the helical screw-tape inserts without center-rod perform significantly better than the helical tape inserts with center-rod in the conical diffuser.

Keywords: diffuser, temperature distribution, CFD, pitch ratio

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Authors: Jessica Hemberg, Mikaela Miller

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Unreasonable workload and work-related stress can reduce nurse leaders’ job satisfaction and productivity and can increase absence and burnout. Nurse leaders’ workload in public healthcare settings is relatively unresearched. The aim of this study was to investigate nurse leaders’ perceptions of workload and task distribution with relation to leading work tasks in public healthcare. A qualitative explorative design was used. The data material consisted of texts from interviews with nurse leaders in public healthcare (N=8). The method was inspired by content analysis. The COREQ checklist was used. Informed consent was sought from the participants regarding study participation and the storage and handling of data for research purposes. Six main themes were found: Increased and unreasonable workload, Length of work experience as nurse leader affects perception of workload, Number of staff and staff characteristics affect perception of workload, Versatile and flexible task distribution, Working overtime as a way of managing high workload, and Insufficient time for leadership mission. The workload for nurse leaders in a public healthcare setting was perceived to be unreasonable. Common measures for managing high workload included working overtime, delegating work tasks and organizing more staff resources in the form of additional staff. How nurse leaders perceive their workload was linked to both the number of staff and staff characteristics. These should both be considered equally important when determining staff levels and measuring nurse leaders’ workload. Future research should focus on investigating workload and task distribution from nurses’ perspectives.

Keywords: nurse leaders, workload, task distribution, public healthcare, qualitative

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Authors: Ana Belon Hercilla

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The study is developed in “Reactivos Jeans” company, in the city of Arequipa, whose main business is the laundry of garments at an industrial level. In 2012 the company initiated actions to provide a dry cleaning service of alpaca fiber garments, recognizing that this item is in a growth phase in Peru. Additionally this company took the initiative to use a new greenwashing technology which has not yet been developed in the country. To accomplish this, a redesign of both the process and the plant layout was required. For redesigning the plant, the methodology used was the Systemic Layout Planning, allowing this study divided into four stages. First stage is the information gathering and evaluation of the initial situation of the company, for which a description of the areas, facilities and initial equipment, distribution of the plant, the production process and flows of major operations was made. Second stage is the development of engineering techniques that allow the logging and analysis procedures, such as: Flow Diagram, Route Diagram, DOP (process flowchart), DAP (analysis diagram). Then the planning of the general distribution is carried out. At this stage, proximity factors of the areas are established, the Diagram Paths (TRA) is developed, and the Relational Diagram Activities (DRA). In order to obtain the General Grouping Diagram (DGC), further information is complemented by a time study and Guerchet method is used to calculate the space requirements for each area. Finally, the plant layout redesigning is presented and the implementation of the improvement is made, making it possible to obtain a model much more efficient than the initial design. The results indicate that the implementation of the new machinery, the adequacy of the plant facilities and equipment relocation resulted in a reduction of the production cycle time by 75.67%, routes were reduced by 68.88%, the number of activities during the process were reduced by 40%, waits and storage were removed 100%.

Keywords: redesign, time optimization, industrial laundry, greenwashing

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Authors: Beryl Rene R. Lopez, Lesley Anne M. Lipat, Rhogene Barbette C. Lirio, Laurice Joy H. Llanes, Karl Philippe M. Llapitan, Einstein James R. Lopez, Socorro S. GuanHing

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Background: Measles remain as one of the most common childhood diseases despite the availability of the vaccine that is safe and cost-effective. Because of morbidity and mortality associated with the recent measles outbreak in the Philippines, there is an increasing concern from the health care professionals. Objective: The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between the compliance of Filipino mothers to measles vaccination and their health beliefs when grouped according to the given socio-demographic factors using a researcher-made questionnaire. Research Methodology: This research utilized the descriptive-correlational research design. With the use of purposive sampling technique, the study involved 200 Filipino mothers aged 18 years old and above excluding those who are healthcare professionals with children aged 2-3 years old with either urban or rural as their settlements. Pre-testing was done prior to the actual data gathering. A questionnaire composed of 26 items involving socio-demographic, compliance, and health beliefs was distributed to the sample population. Statistical analysis was done with the use of Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) for the first research question and Structural Equation Model (SEM) for the second research question. Results: Four dimensions were generated with the use of EFA namely: Vulnerability-Oriented Beliefs (VOB), Knowledge-Oriented Beliefs (KOB), Accessibility-Oriented Beliefs (AOB), and Outcomes-Oriented Beliefs (OOB). These were then correlated with the mothers’ socio-demographic factors (age, educational attainment, the area of residence, the number of children, and family income) and their compliance to the measles vaccination schedule. Results showed significant and direct relationships between area of residence and compliance, family income and compliance, KOB and compliance, education and KOB, KOB and VOB, KOB and OOB, AOB and KOB, AOB and OOB, AOB and VOB, and lastly, OOB and VOB. Conclusion: The Knowledge – Oriented Belief dimension greatly influence compliance to measles vaccination. Other determinants of compliance like the area of residence, educational attainment, and family income significantly increase the Filipino mothers’ likelihood of compliance to measles vaccination, which have implications to health education.

Keywords: socio-demographic, health beliefs, compliance, measles vaccination

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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The statistical modelling of precipitation data for a given portion of territory is fundamental for the monitoring of climatic conditions and for Hydrogeological Management Plans (HMP). This modelling is rendered particularly complex by the changes taking place in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, presumably to be attributed to the global climate change. This paper applies the Wakeby distribution (with 5 parameters) as a theoretical reference model. The number and the quality of the parameters indicate that this distribution may be the appropriate choice for the interpolations of the hydrological variables and, moreover, the Wakeby is particularly suitable for describing phenomena producing heavy tails. The proposed estimation methods for determining the value of the Wakeby parameters are the same as those used for density functions with heavy tails. The commonly used procedure is the classic method of moments weighed with probabilities (probability weighted moments, PWM) although this has often shown difficulty of convergence, or rather, convergence to a configuration of inappropriate parameters. In this paper, we analyze the problem of the likelihood estimation of a random variable expressed through its quantile function. The method of maximum likelihood, in this case, is more demanding than in the situations of more usual estimation. The reasons for this lie, in the sampling and asymptotic properties of the estimators of maximum likelihood which improve the estimates obtained with indications of their variability and, therefore, their accuracy and reliability. These features are highly appreciated in contexts where poor decisions, attributable to an inefficient or incomplete information base, can cause serious damages.

Keywords: generalized extreme values, likelihood estimation, precipitation data, Wakeby distribution

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Authors: Ling Ai Wong, Hussain Shareef, Azah Mohamed, Ahmad Asrul Ibrahim

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The installation of photovoltaic based distributed generation (PVDG) in active distribution system can lead to voltage fluctuation due to the intermittent and unpredictable PVDG output power. This paper presented a method in mitigating the voltage rise by optimally locating and sizing the battery energy storage system (BESS) in PVDG integrated distribution network. The improved firefly algorithm is used to perform optimal placement and sizing. Three objective functions are presented considering the voltage deviation and BESS off-time with state of charge as the constraint. The performance of the proposed method is compared with another optimization method such as the original firefly algorithm and gravitational search algorithm. Simulation results show that the proposed optimum BESS location and size improve the voltage stability.

Keywords: BESS, firefly algorithm, PVDG, voltage fluctuation

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Authors: Thong Lantharthong, Nattchote Rugthaicharoencheep, Att Phayomhom

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This paper presents the electrical effect of two neighboring distribution substation during the construction phase. The size of auxiliary grounding grid have an effect on entire grounding system. The bigger the size of auxiliary grounding grid, the lower the GPR and maximum touch voltage, with the exception that when the two grids are unconnected, i.e. the bigger the size of auxiliary grounding grid, the higher the maximum step voltage. The results in this paper could be served as design guideline of grounding system, and perhaps remedy of some troublesome grounding grids in power distribution’s system. Modeling and simulation is carried out on the Current Distribution Electromagnetic interference Grounding and Soil structure (CDEGS) program. The simulation results exhibit the design and analysis of power system grounding and perhaps could be set as a standard in grounding system design and modification in distribution substations.

Keywords: grounding system, touch voltage, step voltage, safety criteria

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Authors: Flavia Laffleur, Andreas Bernkop-Schnürch

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Purpose: This study was aimed to investigate preactivated thiomers for their mucoadhesive potential. Methods: Accordingly, chitosan-thioglycolic-mercaptonicotinamide conjugates (chitosan-TGA-MNA) were synthesized by the oxidative S-S coupling of chitosan-thioglycolic acid (chitosan-TGA) with 6-mercaptonicotin amide (MNA). Unmodified chitosan, chitosan-TGA (thiomers) and chitosan-TGA-MNA conjugates were compressed into test discs to investigate cohesive properties, cytotoxicity assays and mucoadhesion studies. Results: Due to the immobilization of MNA, the chitosan-TGA-MNA conjugates exhibit comparatively higher swelling properties and cohesive properties corresponding unmodified chitosan. On the rotating cylinder, discs based on chitosan-TGA-MNA conjugates displayed 3.1-fold improved mucoadhesion time compared to thiolated polymers. Tensile study results were found in good agreement with rotating cylinder results. Moreover, preactivated thiomers showed higher stability. All polymers were found non-toxic over Caco-2 cells. Conclusion: On the basis of achieved results the pre activated thiomeric therapeutic agent seems to represent a promising generation of mucoadhesive polymers which are safe to use for a prolonged residence time to target the mucosa.

Keywords: biomedical application, drug delivery, polymer, thiomer

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Authors: Abdenour Bourabaa, Malika Fekih, Mohamed Saighi

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A numerical investigation of the fin efficiency and temperature distribution of an annular fin under dehumidification has been presented in this paper. The non-homogeneous second order differential equation that describes the temperature distribution from the fin base to the fin tip has been solved using the central finite difference method. The effects of variations in parameters including relative humidity, air temperature, air face velocity on temperature distribution and fin efficiency are investigated and compared with those under fully dry fin conditions. Also, the effect of fin pitch on the dimensionless temperature has been studied.

Keywords: annular fin, dehumidification, fin efficiency, heat and mass transfer, wet fin

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Authors: Mohammad Ghiasvand, Babak Khorsandi, Morteza Kolahdoozan

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Under the influence of waves, oil in the sea is subject to vertical scattering in the water column. Scientists' knowledge of how oil is dispersed in the water column is one of the lowest levels of knowledge among other processes affecting oil in the marine environment, which highlights the need for research and study in this field. Therefore, this study investigates the distribution of oil in the water column in a turbulent environment with zero velocity characteristics. Lack of laboratory results to analyze the distribution of petroleum pollutants in deep water for information Phenomenon physics on the one hand and using them to calibrate numerical models on the other hand led to the development of laboratory models in research. According to the aim of the present study, which is to investigate the distribution of oil in homogeneous and isotropic turbulence caused by the oscillating Grid, after reaching the ideal conditions, the crude oil flow was poured onto the water surface and oil was distributed in deep water due to turbulence was investigated. In this study, all experimental processes have been implemented and used for the first time in Iran, and the study of oil diffusion in the water column was considered one of the key aspects of pollutant diffusion in the oscillating Grid environment. Finally, the required oscillation velocities were taken at depths of 10, 15, 20, and 25 cm from the water surface and used in the analysis of oil diffusion due to turbulence parameters. The results showed that with the characteristics of the present system in two static modes and network motion with a frequency of 0.8 Hz, the results of oil diffusion in the four mentioned depths at a frequency of 0.8 Hz compared to the static mode from top to bottom at 26.18, 57 31.5, 37.5 and 50% more. Also, after 2.5 minutes of the oil spill at a frequency of 0.8 Hz, oil distribution at the mentioned depths increased by 49, 61.5, 85, and 146.1%, respectively, compared to the base (static) state.

Keywords: homogeneous and isotropic turbulence, oil distribution, oscillating grid, oil spill

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Authors: Kiran Nair, Jincy George, Suhaib Anagreh

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Artificial intelligence (AI) in a marketing context is a form of a deterministic tool designed to optimize and enhance marketing tasks, research tools, and techniques. It is on the verge of transforming marketing roles and revolutionize the entire industry. This paper aims to explore the current dissemination of the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in the marketing mix, reviewing the scope and application of AI in various aspects of sales and distribution management. The paper also aims at identifying the areas of the strong impact of AI in factors of sales and distribution management such as distribution channel, purchase automation, customer service, merchandising automation, and shopping experiences. This is a qualitative research paper that aims to examine the impact of AI on sales and distribution management of 30 multinational brands in six different industries, namely: airline; automobile; banking and insurance; education; information technology; retail and telecom. Primary data is collected by means of interviews and questionnaires from a sample of 100 marketing managers that have been selected using convenient sampling method. The data is then analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis. The study reveals that AI applications are extensively used in sales and distribution management, with a strong impact on various factors such as identifying new distribution channels, automation in merchandising, customer service, and purchase automation as well as sales processes. International brands have already integrated AI extensively in their day-to-day operations for better efficiency and improved market share while others are investing heavily in new AI applications for gaining competitive advantage.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, sales and distribution, marketing mix, distribution channel, customer service

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Authors: Fatemah A. Alqallaf, Debasis Kundu

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The aim of this paper is to introduce a bivariate inverse generalized exponential distribution which has a singular component. The proposed bivariate distribution can be used when the marginals have heavy-tailed distributions, and they have non-monotone hazard functions. Due to the presence of the singular component, it can be used quite effectively when there are ties in the data. Since it has four parameters, it is a very flexible bivariate distribution, and it can be used quite effectively for analyzing various bivariate data sets. Several dependency properties and dependency measures have been obtained. The maximum likelihood estimators cannot be obtained in closed form, and it involves solving a four-dimensional optimization problem. To avoid that, we have proposed to use an EM algorithm, and it involves solving only one non-linear equation at each `E'-step. Hence, the implementation of the proposed EM algorithm is very straight forward in practice. Extensive simulation experiments and the analysis of one data set have been performed. We have observed that the proposed bivariate inverse generalized exponential distribution can be used for modeling dependent competing risks data. One data set has been analyzed to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: Block and Basu bivariate distributions, competing risks, EM algorithm, Marshall-Olkin bivariate exponential distribution, maximum likelihood estimators

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Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam

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The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.

Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis

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Authors: Önder M. Özdem

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Producing and circulating films of professional standards have become technically easier with the development and widespread use of digital recording and distribution technologies. Additionally, film festivals on common platforms have rapidly increased in numbers and diversity. On the one hand, no-charge applications result in excessive submissions; thus, it complicates the evaluation and selection process. On the other hand, festival’s high submission fees may make the distribution of films with a limited budget very difficult. Inspired by the author’s engagement with the film industry as both a pre-jury member of an international film festival and an applicant to many festivals, this study discusses the causes and consequences of the increasing commercialization of film festivals. The author’s double identity, both as a jury and an applicant, provides a comparative perspective through which one can unfold the different dimensions and dynamics in the film production and distribution processes.

Keywords: commercialization, film distribution, film festivals, film production

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Authors: I. Touaїbia, E. Azzag, O. Narjes

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Power supply networks are growing continuously and their reliability is getting more important than ever. The complexity of the whole network comprises numerous components that can fail and interrupt the power supply for the end user. Underground distribution systems are normally exposed to permanent faults, due to specific construction characteristics. In these systems, visual inspection cannot be performed. In order to enhance service restoration, accurate fault location techniques must be applied. This paper describes the different faults that affect the underground distribution system of SONELGAZ (National Society of Electricity and Gas of Algeria), and cable fault location procedure with impulse reflection method (TDR), based in the analyses of the cable response of the electromagnetic impulse, allows cable fault prelocation. The results are obtained from real test in the underground distribution feeder from electrical network of energy distribution company of Souk-Ahras, in order to know the influence of cable characteristics in the types and frequency of faults.

Keywords: distribution networks, fault location, TDR, underground cable

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Authors: Rorick Daniel Tovar Galvan

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The 1951 Convention relating to the status of refugees contains a conflict of law rule for the determination of the applicable law to marriage. The wording of this provision leaves much to be desired as it uses the domicile and the residence of the spouses as single main and subsidiary connecting factors. In cases where couples live in different countries, the law applicable to the case is unclear. The same problem arises when refugees are married to individuals outside of the convention’s scope of application. Different interpretations of this legal provision have arisen to solve this problem. Courts in a number of European countries apply the so-called modification doctrine: states should apply their domestic private international rules in all cases involving refugees. Courts shall, however, replace the national connecting factor by the domicile or residence in situations where nationality is used to determine the applicable law. The internal conflict of law rule will then be slightly modified in order to be applied according to the convention. However, this approach excludes these people from using their national law if they so desire. As nationality is, in all cases, replaced by domicile or residence as connecting factor, refugees are automatically deprived of the possibility to choose this law in jurisdictions that include the party autonomy in international marriage law. This contribution aims to shed light on the international legal framework applicable to marriages celebrated by refugees and the unnecessary restrictions to the exercise of the party autonomy these individuals are subjected to. The interest is motivated by the increasing number of displaced people, the significant number of states party to the Refugee Convention – approximately 150 – and the fact that more and more countries allow choice of law agreements in marriage law. Based on a study of German, Spanish and Swiss case law, the current practices in Europe, as well as some incoherencies derived from the current interpretation of the convention, will be discussed. The main objective is showing that there is neither an economic nor a legal basis to deny refugees the right to choose the law of their country of origin in those jurisdictions providing for this possibility to other foreigners. Quite the contrary, after analyzing other provisions contained in the conventions, this restriction would mean a contravention of other obligations included in the text.

Keywords: choice of law, conflict of laws, international marriage law, refugees

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Authors: Ashkan Golgoon, Arash Yavari

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In this paper, we present some analytical solutions for the stress fields of nonlinear anisotropic solids with line and point defects distributions. In particular, we determine the induced stress fields of a parallel cylindrically-symmetric distribution of screw dislocations in infinite orthotropic and monoclinic media as well as a cylindrically-symmetric distribution of parallel wedge disclinations in an infinite orthotropic medium. For a given distribution of edge dislocations, the material manifold is constructed using Cartan's moving frames and the stress field is obtained assuming that the medium is orthotropic. Also, we consider a spherically-symmetric distribution of point defects in a transversely isotropic spherical ball. We show that for an arbitrary incompressible transversely isotropic ball with the radial material preferred direction, a uniform point defect distribution results in a uniform hydrostatic stress field inside the spherical region the distribution is supported in. Finally, we find the stresses induced by a discombination in an orthotropic medium.

Keywords: defects, disclinations, dislocations, monoclinic solids, nonlinear elasticity, orthotropic solids, transversely isotropic solids

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Authors: Carmit Noa Shpigelman, Michal Isaacson

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Over the last decades, the improvement in welfare and health services and the increase in awareness of the needs of people with intellectual disability has led to an increase in their life expectancy, and many of them enter into old age. Furthermore, many older adults with intellectual disability live in out-of-home residence. This situation, in addition to the parents' aging process as the main caregivers, may lead to a reduction in contact with the family and, as a result, decreased level of the residents' (older adults with intellectual disability) well-being. A plausible solution for this condition may be using communication technologies. Previous studies indicate that using communication technologies among older adults contributes to maintaining the relationship with others, decreasing the older adult's sense of loneliness, and increasing their level of well-being. Using communication technologies may be especially valuable for older adults in the current global pandemic of COVID-19 and the associated restrictions of social distancing. However, to date, research on using communication technologies among people with intellectual disability has focused on younger cohorts. Moreover, research on the adoption of technologies among older adults with intellectual disability has focused more on assistive technologies and less on communication technologies. To address these practice and research gaps, the present study focuses on the adoption process of communication technology among older adults with intellectual disability (over the age of 45 years) who live in supported accommodation. Fifteen residents participated in an intervention program where they received a tablet with a video communication application and through which they were able to contact their families. A multiple-case study methodology was applied to capture the experiences, including barriers and needs, of the residents from three perspectives: the resident, the family member, and a staff member from the residential setting. The data was collected via quantitative and qualitative measures at different time points over the intervention. The findings demonstrate the contribution of using communication technology for the well-being of older adults with intellectual disability in supported accommodation. The findings also map the adoption process among this population, including pitfalls. The present study contributes to developing best practices on how to accommodate communication technologies to older adults with intellectual disability for maintaining contact with others.

Keywords: adoption, aging, communication, intellectual disability, technology

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Authors: A. Amiri Delouei

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In the current study, two-dimensional unsteady heat conduction in a functionally graded cylinder is studied analytically. The temperature distribution is in radial and longitudinal directions. Heat conduction coefficients are considered a power function of radius both in radial and longitudinal directions. The proposed solution can exactly satisfy the boundary conditions. Analytical unsteady temperature distribution for different parameters of functionally graded cylinder is investigated. The achieved exact solution is useful for thermal stress analysis of functionally graded cylinders. Regarding the analytical approach, this solution can be used to understand the concepts of heat conduction in functionally graded materials.

Keywords: functionally graded materials, unsteady heat conduction, cylinder, temperature distribution

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Authors: Vallence Ngabo Maniragaba

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This study aimed at examining the variations of undernutrition among children below 5 years of age in Uganda. The approach of spatial and spatiotemporal analysis helped in identifying cluster patterns, hot spots and emerging hot spots. Data from the 6 Uganda Demographic and Health Surveys spanning from 1990 to 2016 were used with the main outcome variable being undernutrition among children <5 years of age. All data that were relevant to this study were retrieved from the survey datasets and combined with the 214 shape files for the districts of Uganda to enable spatial and spatiotemporal analysis. Spatial maps with the spatial distribution of the prevalence of undernutrition, both in space and time, were generated using ArcGIS Pro version 2.8. Moran’s I, an index of spatial autocorrelation, rules out doubts of spatial randomness in order to identify spatially clustered patterns of hot or cold spot areas. Furthermore, space-time cubes were generated to establish the trend in undernutrition as well as to mirror its variations over time and across Uganda. Moreover, emerging hot spot analysis was done to help identify the patterns of undernutrition over time. The results indicate a heterogeneous distribution of undernutrition across Uganda and the same variations were also evident over time. Moran’s I index confirmed spatial clustered patterns as opposed to random distributions of undernutrition prevalence. Four hot spot areas, namely; the Karamoja, the Sebei, the West Nile and the Toro regions were significantly evident, most of the central parts of Uganda were identified as cold spot clusters, while most of Western Uganda, the Acholi and the Lango regions had no statistically significant spatial patterns by the year 2016. The spatio-temporal analysis identified the Karamoja and Sebei regions as clusters of persistent, consecutive and intensifying hot spots, West Nile region was identified as a sporadic hot spot area while the Toro region was identified with both sporadic and emerging hotspots. In conclusion, undernutrition is a silent pandemic that needs to be handled with both hands. At 31.2 percent, the prevalence is still very high and unpleasant. The distribution across the country is nonuniform with some areas such as the Karamoja, the West Nile, the Sebei and the Toro regions being epicenters of undernutrition in Uganda. Over time, the same areas have experienced and exhibited high undernutrition prevalence. Policymakers, as well as the implementers, should bear in mind the spatial variations across the country and prioritize hot spot areas in order to have efficient, timely and region-specific interventions.

Keywords: undernutrition, spatial autocorrelation, hotspots analysis, geographically weighted regressions, emerging hotspots analysis, under-fives, Uganda

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Authors: Betty Johanna Garzon Rozo, Jonathan Crook, Fernando Moreira

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Operational risk losses are heavy tailed and are likely to be asymmetric and extremely dependent among business lines/event types. We propose a new methodology to assess, in a multivariate way, the asymmetry and extreme dependence between severity distributions, and to calculate the capital for Operational Risk. This methodology simultaneously uses (i) several parametric distributions and an alternative mix distribution (the Lognormal for the body of losses and the Generalized Pareto Distribution for the tail) via extreme value theory using SAS®, (ii) the multivariate skew t-copula applied for the first time for operational losses and (iii) Bayesian theory to estimate new n-dimensional skew t-copula models via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. This paper analyses a newly operational loss data set, SAS Global Operational Risk Data [SAS OpRisk], to model operational risk at international financial institutions. All the severity models are constructed in SAS® 9.2. We implement the procedure PROC SEVERITY and PROC NLMIXED. This paper focuses in describing this implementation.

Keywords: operational risk, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, copulas

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Authors: Abidi Myriam, Ben Amor Rim, Gueddari Moncef

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Understanding ecosystem response to the restoration project is essential to assess its rehabilitation. Indeed, the time elapsed after restoration is a critical indicator to shows the real of the restoration success. In this order, the south lagoon of Tunis, a shallow Mediterranean coastal area, has witnessed several pollutions. To resolve this environmental problem, a large restoration project of the lagoon was undertaken. In this restoration works, the main changes are the decrease of the residence time of the lagoon water and the nutrient concentrations. In this paper, we attempt to evaluate the trophic state of lagoon water for evaluating the risk of eutrophication after almost 16 years of its restoration. To attend this objectives water quality monitoring was untaken. In order to identify and to analyze the natural and anthropogenic factor governing the nutrients concentrations of lagoon water geochemical methods and multivariate statistical tools were used. Results show that nutrients have duel sources due to the discharge of municipal wastewater of Megrine City in the south side of the lagoon. The Carlson index shows that the South lagoon of Tunis Lagoon Tunis is eutrophic, and may show limited summer anoxia.

Keywords: geochemistry, nutrients, statistical analysis, the south lagoon of Tunis, trophic state

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Authors: Al Omari Mohammed Ahmed

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This paper focuses on Maximum Likelihood Estimator with Covariate. Covariates are incorporated into the Weibull model. Under this regression model with regards to maximum likelihood estimator, the parameters of the covariate, shape parameter, survival function and hazard rate of the Weibull regression distribution with right censored data are estimated. The mean square error (MSE) and absolute bias are used to compare the performance of Weibull regression distribution. For the simulation comparison, the study used various sample sizes and several specific values of the Weibull shape parameter.

Keywords: weibull regression distribution, maximum likelihood estimator, survival function, hazard rate, right censoring

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Authors: Bader Eddin Al Asali, N. Srinivasa Reddy

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Cities are dynamic in nature and are characterized by concentration of people, infrastructure, services and markets, which offer opportunities for production and consumption. Often growth and development in urban areas is not systematic, and is directed by number of factors like natural growth, land prices, housing availability, job locations-the central business district (CBD’s), transportation routes, distribution of resources, geographical boundaries, administrative policies, etc. One sided spatial and geographical development in cities leads to the unequal spatial distribution of population and jobs, resulting in high transportation activity. City development can be measured by the parameters such as urban size, urban form, urban shape, and urban structure. Urban Size is the city size and defined by the population of the city, and urban form is the location and size of the economic activity (CBD) over the geographical space. Urban shape is the geometrical shape of the city over which the distribution of population and economic activity occupied. And Urban Structure is the transport network within which the population and activity centers are connected by hierarchy of roads. Among the urban land-use systems transportation plays significant role and is one of the largest energy consuming sector. Transportation interaction among the land uses is measured in Passenger-Km and mean trip length, and is often used as a proxy for measurement of energy consumption in transportation sector. Among the trips generated in cities, work trips constitute more than 70 percent. Work trips are originated from the place of residence and destination to the place of employment. To understand the role of urban parameters on transportation interaction, theoretical cities of different size and urban specifications are generated through building block exercise using a specially developed interactive C++ programme and land use transportation modeling is carried. The land-use transportation modeling exercise helps in understanding the role of urban parameters and also to classify the cities for their urban form, structure, and shape. Muscat the capital city of Oman underwent rapid urbanization over the last four decades is taken as a case study for its classification. Also, a pilot survey is carried to capture urban travel characteristics. Analysis of land-use transportation modeling with field data classified Muscat as a linear city with polycentric CBD. Conclusions are drawn suggestion are given for policy making for the sustainability of Muscat City.

Keywords: land-use transportation, transportation modeling urban form, urban structure, urban rule parameters

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Authors: J. P. Borah, R. D. Raland

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Hyperthermia is one of many techniques used destroys cancerous cell. It uses the physical methods to heat certain organ or tissue delivering an adequate temperature in an appropriate period of time, to the entire tumor volume for achieving optimal therapeutic results. Magnetic Metal ferrites nanoparticles (MFe₂O₄ where M = Mn, Zn, Ni, Co, Mg, etc.) are one of the most potential candidates for hyperthermia due to their tunability, biocompatibility, chemical stability and notable ability to mediate high rate of heat induction. However, to obtain the desirable properties for these applications, it is important to optimize their chemical composition, structure and magnetic properties. These properties are mainly sensitive to cation distribution of tetrahedral and octahedral sites. Among the ferrites, zinc ferrite (ZnFe₂O₄) and Manganese ferrite ((MnFe₂O₄) is one of a strong candidate for hyperthermia application because Mn and zinc have a non-magnetic cation and therefore the magnetic property is determined only by the cation distribution of iron, which provides a better platform to manipulate or tailor the properties. In this talk, influence of doping and surfactant towards cation re-distribution leading to an enhancement of magnetic properties of ferrite nanoparticles will be demonstrated. The efficiency of heat generation in association with the enhanced magnetic property is also well discussed in this talk.

Keywords: magnetic nanoparticle, hyperthermia, x-ray diffraction, TEM study

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Authors: Rong-Tsorng Wang

Abstract:

In this paper, we derive a pricing formula for catastrophe equity put options (or CatEPut) with non-homogeneous loss and approximated compound distributions. We assume that the loss claims arrival process is a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) representing the clustering occurrences of loss claims, the size of loss claims is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables, and the accumulated loss distribution forms a compound distribution and is approximated by a heavy-tailed distribution. A numerical example is given to calibrate parameters, and we discuss how the value of CatEPut is affected by the changes of parameters in the pricing model we provided.

Keywords: catastrophe equity put options, compound distributions, nonhomogeneous Poisson process, pricing model

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Authors: Roghieh A. Biroon, Zoleikha Abdollahi

Abstract:

The recent growth of renewables, e.g., solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs) in residential and small commercial sectors, has potential impacts on the stability and operation of power grids. Considering approximately 50 percent share of the residential and the commercial sectors in the electricity demand market, the significance of these impacts, and the necessity of addressing them are more highlighted. Utilities and power system operators should manage the renewable electricity sources integration with power systems in such a way to extract the most possible advantages for the power systems. The most common effect of high penetration level of the renewables is the reverse power flow in the distribution feeders when the customers generate more power than their needs. The reverse power flow causes voltage rise and thermal issues in the power grids. To overcome the voltage rise issues in the distribution system, several techniques have been proposed including reducing transformers short circuit resistance and feeder impedance, installing autotransformers/voltage regulators along the line, absorbing the reactive power by distributed generators (DGs), and limiting the PV and battery sizes. In this study, we consider a medium-scale battery energy storage to manage the power energy and address the aforementioned issues on voltage deviation and power loss increase. We propose an optimization algorithm to find the optimum size and location for the battery. The optimization for the battery location and size is so that the battery maintains the feeder voltage deviation and power loss at a certain desired level. Moreover, the proposed optimization algorithm controls the charging/discharging profile of the battery to absorb the negative power flow from residential and commercial customers in the feeder during the peak time and sell the power back to the system during the off-peak time. The proposed battery regulates the voltage problem in the distribution system while it also can play frequency regulation role in islanded microgrids. This battery can be regulated and controlled by the utilities or a third-party ancillary service provider for the utilities to reduce the power system loss and regulate the distribution feeder voltage and frequency in standard level.

Keywords: ancillary services, battery, distribution system and optimization

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Authors: Lucia Mavudzi

Abstract:

Socioeconomic and demographic factors influence male attendance of antenatal care (ANC) activities which are beneficial in improving maternal health and birth outcome. When a male, as the head of the family is expected to solely make decisions of how finances are managed, when and where health services are sought, it impacts on the woman’s health seeking behavior. Using the data from the Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey 2010-2011 this paper seeks to assess the prevalence of male ANC attendance in Zimbabwe and factors that influence male ANC attendance. We hypothesized that socioeconomic and demographic factors do not influence male ANC attendance. To achieve the objectives of this paper, descriptive analysis was used to describe the characteristics of men and the Binomial logistic modelling was used to assess the relationship between male ANC attendance and selected socioeconomic and demographic factors. Male ANC attendance was used as the dependent variable, and the independent variables are age, marital status, place of residence, wealth, education, religion and employment. A high percentage of males did not attend ANC with their pregnant partners. Religion, education, and place of residence were found to be significantly associated with male ANC attendance. There was no evidence to show that there was a difference in male ANC attendance by employment, marital status, and age. Findings from this paper are relevant to public health. They will be used to develop strategies and intervention programs to improve pregnant women’s attendance of ANC attendance by involving men in maternal health.

Keywords: antenatal care, male participation, maternal health, socio-economic and demographic factors

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Authors: A. Assif

Abstract:

This paper presents the modeling of a prototype distribution static compensator (D-STATCOM) for voltage sag and swell mitigation in an unbalanced distribution system. Here the concept that an inverter can be used as generalized impedance converter to realize either inductive or capacitive reactance has been used to mitigate power quality issues of distribution networks. The D-STATCOM is here supposed to replace the widely used StaticVar Compensator (SVC). The scheme is based on the Voltage Source Converter (VSC) principle. In this model PWM based control scheme has been implemented to control the electronic valves of VSC. Phase shift control Algorithm method is used for converter control. The D-STATCOM injects a current into the system to mitigate the voltage sags. In this paper the modeling of D¬STATCOM has been designed using MATLAB SIMULINIC. Accordingly, simulations are first carried out to illustrate the use of D-STATCOM in mitigating voltage sag in a distribution system. Simulation results prove that the D-STATCOM is capable of mitigating voltage sag as well as improving power quality of a system.

Keywords: D-STATCOM, voltage sag, voltage source converter (VSC), phase shift control

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Authors: Ahmed Negm, George Aggidis, Xiandong Ma

Abstract:

With the diverse nature of urban cities, customer demand patterns, landscape topologies or even seasonal weather trends; managing our water distribution networks (WDNs) has proved a complex task. These unpredictable circumstances manifest as pipe failures, intermittent supply and burst events thus adding to water loss, energy waste and increased carbon emissions. Whilst these events are unavoidable, advanced pressure management has proved an effective tool to control and mitigate them. Henceforth, water utilities have struggled with developing a real-time control method that is resilient when confronting the challenges of water distribution. In this paper we use deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms as a novel pressure control strategy to minimise pressure violations and leakage under both burst and background leakage conditions. Agents based on asynchronous actor critic (A2C) and recurrent proximal policy optimisation (Recurrent PPO) were trained and compared to benchmarked optimisation algorithms (differential evolution, particle swarm optimisation. A2C manages to minimise leakage by 32.48% under burst conditions and 67.17% under background conditions which was the highest performance in the DRL algorithms. A2C and Recurrent PPO performed well in comparison to the benchmarks with higher processing speed and lower computational effort.

Keywords: deep reinforcement learning, pressure management, water distribution networks, leakage management

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