Search results for: realistic optimism
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 643

Search results for: realistic optimism

493 Research Opportunities in Business Process Management and Performance Measurement from a Constructivist View

Authors: R.T.O. Lacerda, L. Ensslin., S.R. Ensslin, L. Knoff

Abstract:

This research paper aims to discover research opportunities in business process management and performance measurement from a constructivist view. The nature of this research is exploratory and descriptive and the research method was performed in a qualitative way. The process narrowed down 2142 articles, gathered after a search in scientific databases, and identified 16 articles that were relevant to the research and highly cited. The analysis found that most of the articles uses realistic approach and there is a need to analyze the decision making process in a singular manner. The measurement criteria are identified from scientific literature searching, in most cases, using ordinal scale without any integration process to present the results to the decision maker. Regarding management aspects, most of the articles do not have a structured process to measure the current situation and generate improvements opportunities.

Keywords: performance measurement, BPM, decision, research opportunities

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492 Suitability of Black Box Approaches for the Reliability Assessment of Component-Based Software

Authors: Anjushi Verma, Tirthankar Gayen

Abstract:

Although, reliability is an important attribute of quality, especially for mission critical systems, yet, there does not exist any versatile model even today for the reliability assessment of component-based software. The existing Black Box models are found to make various assumptions which may not always be realistic and may be quite contrary to the actual behaviour of software. They focus on observing the manner in which the system behaves without considering the structure of the system, the components composing the system, their interconnections, dependencies, usage frequencies, etc.As a result, the entropy (uncertainty) in assessment using these models is much high.Though, there are some models based on operation profile yet sometimes it becomes extremely difficult to obtain the exact operation profile concerned with a given operation. This paper discusses the drawbacks, deficiencies and limitations of Black Box approaches from the perspective of various authors and finally proposes a conceptual model for the reliability assessment of software.

Keywords: black box, faults, failure, software reliability

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491 Thermal Assessment of Outer Rotor Direct Drive Gearless Small-Scale Wind Turbines

Authors: Yusuf Yasa, Erkan Mese

Abstract:

This paper investigates the thermal issue of permanent magnet synchronous generator which is frequently used in direct drive gearless small-scale wind turbine applications. Permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) is designed with 2.5 kW continuous and 6 kW peak power. Then considering generator geometry, mechanical design of wind turbine is performed. Thermal analysis and optimization is carried out considering all wind turbine components to reach realistic results. These issue is extremely important in research and development(R&D) process for wind turbine applications.

Keywords: direct drive, gearless wind turbine, permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG), small-scale wind turbine, thermal management

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490 Softener Washes Affecting the Shrinkage and Appearance of Knitted Garments

Authors: Ezza Nasir, Babar Ramzan

Abstract:

Silicon washes on altered knitted fabrics will provide diverse shrinkage trends. The expectation on shrinkage for various apparel products are also changed. However, the effect of shrinkage in garment is still ambiguous. As a result, analysis of shrinkage after different concentrations of silicon washes can provide a more realistic study. The purpose of this study is to analyze the shrinkage with commercial sewing threads in knitted fabric. Study focuses on the effect of different washes on garment measurement and to study the effect of washes on fabric shrinkage. Four different types of knitted fabric were sewn with same length and width measurements. To study the effect of softener washes on shrinkage of garment through subjective ranking, there were critical dimensions for measurements done on body length and width garment appearance and shrinkage.

Keywords: shrinkage, dimensions, knitted fabric, silicon

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489 Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis of Dynamic Positioning System through Monte Carlo Approach

Authors: A. S. Cheliyan, S. K. Bhattacharyya

Abstract:

Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) is employed in marine vessels of the offshore oil and gas industry. It is a computer controlled system to automatically maintain a ship’s position and heading by using its own thrusters. Reliability assessment of the same can be analyzed through conventional fault tree. However, the complex behaviour like sequence failure, redundancy management and priority of failing of events cannot be analyzed by the conventional fault trees. The Dynamic Fault Tree (DFT) addresses these shortcomings of conventional Fault Tree by defining additional gates called dynamic gates. Monte Carlo based simulation approach has been adopted for the dynamic gates. This method of realistic modeling of DPS gives meaningful insight into the system reliability and the ability to improve the same.

Keywords: dynamic positioning system, dynamic fault tree, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability assessment

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488 Micromechanical Modeling of Fiber-Matrix Debonding in Unidirectional Composites

Authors: M. Palizvan, M. T. Abadi, M. H. Sadr

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Due to variations in damage mechanisms in the microscale, the behavior of fiber-reinforced composites is nonlinear and difficult to model. To make use of computational advantages, homogenization method is applied to the micro-scale model in order to minimize the cost at the expense of detail of local microscale phenomena. In this paper, the effective stiffness is calculated using the homogenization of nonlinear behavior of a composite representative volume element (RVE) containing fiber-matrix debonding. The damage modes for the RVE are considered by using cohesive elements and contacts for the cohesive behavior of the interface between fiber and matrix. To predict more realistic responses of composite materials, different random distributions of fibers are proposed besides square and hexagonal arrays. It was shown that in some cases, there is quite different damage behavior in different fiber distributions. A comprehensive comparison has been made between different graphs.

Keywords: homogenization, cohesive zone model, fiber-matrix debonding, RVE

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487 The Reflection of Greek Reality Concerning Taxation from the Perspective of Both Tax Payers and Taxmen

Authors: Evagelia Makri, Maria Tsourela, Dimitris Paschaloudis, Dafni M. Nerantzaki

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One of the biggest financial and social problems, which at the same time constitute one of the greater challenges that Greek society faces today, is the illegal avoidance of tax payments. Tax evasion may negate financial data and community budgets, as well as breed financial chaos. This research seeks to reflect Greek reality concerning tax measures. Also, there will be an effort to record the factors surrounding tax evasion. Greek tax system’s data will be rendered in financial terms. Questionnaires will be handed out to tax payers, and interviews will be conducted to taxmen. The quantitative analysis of the questionnaire answers will define the tax payers’ opinion towards the existence of tax evasion. The qualitative analysis of the interviews will reveal the main reason that boosts tax evasion. At the end, there will be some realistic proposals about how to better collect taxes, through the creation of a strong regulatory mechanism.

Keywords: tax evasion, tax collection measures, insurance recovery measures, Greek tax system

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486 The Use of Computer Simulation as Technological Education for Crisis Management Staff

Authors: Jiří Barta, Josef Krahulec, Jiří F. Urbánek

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Education and practical training crisis management members are a topical issue nowadays. The paper deals with the perspectives and possibilities of ‘smart solutions’ to education for crisis management staff. Currently, there are a large number of simulation tools, which notes that they are suitable for practical training of crisis management staff. The first part of the paper is focused on the introduction of the technology simulation tools. The simulators aim is to create a realistic environment for the practical training of extending units of crisis staff. The second part of the paper concerns the possibilities of using the simulation technology to the education process. The aim of this section is to introduce the practical capabilities and potential of the simulation programs for practical training of crisis management staff.

Keywords: crisis management staff, computer simulation, software, technological education

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485 Dust and Soling Accumulation Effect on Photovoltaic Systems in Middle East and North Africa Region

Authors: Iyad Muslih, Azzah Alkhalailah, Ali Merdji

Abstract:

Photovoltaic efficiency is highly affected by dust accumulation; the dust particles prevent direct solar radiation from reaching the panel surface; therefore a reduction in output power will occur. A study of dust and soiling accumulation effect on the output power of PV panels was conducted for different periods of time from May to October in three countries of the MENA region, Jordan, Egypt, and Algeria, under local weather conditions. This study leads to build a more realistic equation to estimate the power reduction as a function of time. This logarithmic function shows the high reduction in power in the first days with 10% reduction in output power compared to the reference system, where it reaches a steady state value after 60 days to reach a maximum value of 30%.

Keywords: solar energy, PV system, soiling, MENA

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484 The Psychological and Social Impacts of Climate Change: A Review of the Current State in Canada

Authors: Megan E. Davies

Abstract:

The effects of climate change impact the environment and our physical health but also demonstrate a growing risk factor for Canadians’ individual and collective mental health. Past research and expert predictions are discussed while exploring the connection between mental health concerns and climate change consequences, resulting in a call to action for psychological sciences to be integrated into solution planning. With the direct and indirect effects of climate change steadily increasing, political and legal aspects of sustainability, as well as the repercussions for mental health being seen in Canada regarding climate change, are investigated. An interdisciplinary perspective for reviewing the challenges of climate change is applied in order to propose a realistic plan for how policymakers and mental health professionals can work together moving forward in applying interventions that mediate against the effects of climate change on Canadians’ mental health.

Keywords: climate change, mental health, policy change, solution planning, sustainability

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483 Implementation of Distributed Randomized Algorithms for Resilient Peer-to-Peer Networks

Authors: Richard Tanaka, Ying Zhu

Abstract:

This paper studies a few randomized algorithms in application-layer peer-to-peer networks. The significant gain in scalability and resilience that peer-to-peer networks provide has made them widely used and adopted in many real-world distributed systems and applications. The unique properties of peer-to-peer networks make them particularly suitable for randomized algorithms such as random walks and gossip algorithms. Instead of simulations of peer-to-peer networks, we leverage the Docker virtual container technology to develop implementations of the peer-to-peer networks and these distributed randomized algorithms running on top of them. We can thus analyze their behaviour and performance in realistic settings. We further consider the problem of identifying high-risk bottleneck links in the network with the objective of improving the resilience and reliability of peer-to-peer networks. We propose a randomized algorithm to solve this problem and evaluate its performance by simulations.

Keywords: distributed randomized algorithms, peer-to-peer networks, virtual container technology, resilient networks

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482 Continuum-Based Modelling Approaches for Cell Mechanics

Authors: Yogesh D. Bansod, Jiri Bursa

Abstract:

The quantitative study of cell mechanics is of paramount interest since it regulates the behavior of the living cells in response to the myriad of extracellular and intracellular mechanical stimuli. The novel experimental techniques together with robust computational approaches have given rise to new theories and models, which describe cell mechanics as a combination of biomechanical and biochemical processes. This review paper encapsulates the existing continuum-based computational approaches that have been developed for interpreting the mechanical responses of living cells under different loading and boundary conditions. The salient features and drawbacks of each model are discussed from both structural and biological points of view. This discussion can contribute to the development of even more precise and realistic computational models of cell mechanics based on continuum approaches or on their combination with microstructural approaches, which in turn may provide a better understanding of mechanotransduction in living cells.

Keywords: cell mechanics, computational models, continuum approach, mechanical models

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481 Designing Emergency Response Network for Rail Hazmat Shipments

Authors: Ali Vaezi, Jyotirmoy Dalal, Manish Verma

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The railroad is one of the primary transportation modes for hazardous materials (hazmat) shipments in North America. Installing an emergency response network capable of providing a commensurate response is one of the primary levers to contain (or mitigate) the adverse consequences from rail hazmat incidents. To this end, we propose a two-stage stochastic program to determine the location of and equipment packages to be stockpiled at each response facility. The raw input data collected from publicly available reports were processed, fed into the proposed optimization program, and then tested on a realistic railroad network in Ontario (Canada). From the resulting analyses, we conclude that the decisions based only on empirical datasets would undermine the effectiveness of the resulting network; coverage can be improved by redistributing equipment in the network, purchasing equipment with higher containment capacity, and making use of a disutility multiplier factor.

Keywords: hazmat, rail network, stochastic programming, emergency response

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480 Factors Contributing to Building Construction Project’s Cost Overrun in Jordan

Authors: Ghaleb Y. Abbasi, Sufyan Al-Mrayat

Abstract:

This study examined the contribution of thirty-six factors to building construction project’s cost overrun in Jordan. A questionnaire was distributed to a random sample of 350 stakeholders comprised of owners, consultants, and contractors, of which 285 responded. SPSS analysis was conducted to identify the top five causes of cost overrun, which were a large number of variation orders, inadequate quantities provided in the contract, misunderstanding of the project plan, incomplete bid documents, and choosing the lowest price in the contract bidding. There was an agreement among the study participants in ranking the factors contributing to cost overrun, which indicated that these factors were very commonly encountered in most construction projects in Jordan. Thus, it is crucial to enhance the collaboration among the different project stakeholders to understand the project’s objectives and set a realistic plan that takes into consideration all the factors that might influence the project cost, which might eventually prevent cost overrun.

Keywords: cost, overrun, building construction projects, Jordan

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479 Modeling Intelligent Threats: Case of Continuous Attacks on a Specific Target

Authors: Asma Ben Yaghlane, Mohamed Naceur Azaiez

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In this paper, we treat a model that falls in the area of protecting targeted systems from intelligent threats including terrorism. We introduce the concept of system survivability, in the context of continuous attacks, as the probability that a system under attack will continue operation up to some fixed time t. We define a constant attack rate (CAR) process as an attack on a targeted system that follows an exponential distribution. We consider the superposition of several CAR processes. From the attacker side, we determine the optimal attack strategy that minimizes the system survivability. We also determine the optimal strengthening strategy that maximizes the system survivability under limited defensive resources. We use operations research techniques to identify optimal strategies of each antagonist. Our results may be used as interesting starting points to develop realistic protection strategies against intentional attacks.

Keywords: CAR processes, defense/attack strategies, exponential failure, survivability

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478 Endometriosis: The Optimal Treatment of Recurrent Endometrioma in Infertile Patients

Authors: Smita Lakhotia, C. Kew, S. H. M. Siraj, B. Chern

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Up to 50% of those with endometriosis may suffer from infertility due to either distorted pelvic anatomy/impaired oocyte release or inhibit ovum pickup and transport, altered peritoneal function, endocrine and anovulatory disorders, including LUF, impaired implantation, progesterone resistance or decreased levels of cellular immunity. The dilemma continues as to whether the surgery or IVF is the optimal management for such recurrent endometriomas. The core question is whether surgery adds anything of value for infertile women with recurrent endometriosis or not. Complete and detailed information on risks and benefits of treatment alternatives must be offered to patients, giving a realistic estimate of chances of success of repetitive surgery and of multiple IVF cycles in order to allow unbiased choices between different possible optionsAn individualized treatment plan should be developed taking into account patient age, duration of infertility, previous pregnancies and specific clinical conditions and wish.

Keywords: recurrent endometriosis, infertility, oocyte release, pregnancy

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477 Design of a Laboratory Test for InvestigatingPermanent Deformation of Asphalt

Authors: Esmaeil Ahmadinia, Frank Bullen, Ron Ayers

Abstract:

Many concerns have been raised in recent years about the adequacy of existing creep test methods for evaluating rut-resistance of asphalt mixes. Many researchers believe the main reason for the creep tests being unable to duplicate field results is related to a lack of a realistic confinement for laboratory specimens. In-situ asphalt under axle loads is surrounded by a mass of asphalt, which provides stress-strain generated confinement. However, most existing creep tests are largely unconfined in their nature. It has been hypothesised that by providing a degree of confinement, representative of field conditions, in a creep test, it could be possible to establish a better correlation between the field and laboratory. In this study, a new methodology is explored where confinement for asphalt specimens is provided. The proposed methodology is founded on the current Australian test method, adapted to provide simulated field conditions through the provision of sample confinement.

Keywords: asphalt mixture, creep test, confinements, permanent deformation

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476 Assessment of Bridge Performance with Laminated versus Spring Seismic Isolation

Authors: M. Z. Ramli, A. Adnan, Chee Wei Tan

Abstract:

To gain a better understanding of earthquake forces on reinforced concrete bridge piers with different bearing condition, a series of experiments was conducted on a realistic, 1:4 scale reinforced concrete bridge pier. The normal practices of laminated seismic isolation bearing is compared with the new design spring seismic isolation bearing where invented by Engineering Seismology and Earthquake Engineering Research (e-SEER), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia. The nonlinear behavior of piers is modeled using the fibre beam theory to verify the experimental works. The hysteresis of bridge pier with different bearing condition was illustrated under different Peak Ground Acceleration (PGAs). The average slope of the hysteresis respectively to the global stiffness was also investigated.

Keywords: bridge, laminated seismic isolation, spring seismic isolation, Peak Ground Acceleration, stiffness

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475 Non-Singular Gravitational Collapse of a Dust Cloud in Einstein-Cartan Theory

Authors: Amir Hadi Ziaie, Mostafa Hashemi, Shahram Jalalzadeh

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It is now known that the end state of the collapse process of a dense star under its own gravity is the formation of a spacetime singularity. This is the spacetime event where the energy density and spacetime curvature diverge, and the classical general relativity breaks down. As we know, a realistic star is composed of fermions so that their spin effects could alter the final fate of the collapse scenario. The underlying theory within which the inclusion of spin effects can be worked out is the Einstein-Cartan theory. In this theory, the spacetime torsion which is defined as a geometrical quantity, is related to an intrinsic angular momentum of fermions (spin). In this work, we study the collapse process of a homogeneous spin fluid in such a framework and show that taking into account the spin effects of the collapsing cloud could prevent the formation of spacetime singularity.

Keywords: gravitational collapse, einstein-cartan theory, spacetime singularity, black hole physics

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474 A Time since of Injection Model for Hepatitis C Amongst People Who Inject Drugs

Authors: Nader Al-Rashidi, David Greenhalgh

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Mathematical modelling techniques are now being used by health organizations worldwide to help understand the likely impact that intervention strategies treatment options and combinations of these have on the prevalence and incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the people who inject drugs (PWID) population. In this poster, we develop a deterministic, compartmental mathematical model to approximate the spread of the HCV in a PWID population that has been divided into two groups by time since onset of injection. The model assumes that after injection needles adopt the most infectious state of their previous state or that of the PWID who last injected with them. Using analytical techniques, we find that the model behaviour is determined by the basic reproductive number R₀, where R₀ = 1 is a critical threshold separating two different outcomes. The disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if R₀ ≤ 1 and unstable if R₀ > 1. Additionally, we make some simulations where have confirmed that the model tends to this endemic equilibrium value with realistic parameter values giving an HCV prevalence.

Keywords: hepatitis C, people who inject drugs, HCV, PWID

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473 Dynamic Active Earth Pressure on Flexible Cantilever Retaining Wall

Authors: Snehal R. Pathak, Sachin S. Munnoli

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Evaluation of dynamic earth pressure on retaining wall is a topic of primary importance. In present paper, dynamic active earth pressure and displacement of flexible cantilever retaining wall has been evaluated analytically using 2-DOF mass-spring-dashpot model by incorporating both wall and backfill properties. The effect of wall flexibility on dynamic active earth pressure and wall displacement are studied and presented in graphical form. The obtained results are then compared with the various conventional methods, experimental analysis and also with PLAXIS analysis. It is observed that the dynamic active earth pressure decreases with increase in the wall flexibility while wall displacement increases linearly with flexibility of the wall. The results obtained by proposed 2-DOF analytical model are found to be more realistic and economical.

Keywords: earth pressure, earthquake, 2-DOF model, Plaxis, retaining walls, wall movement

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472 Impact of Health Sector Economic Reforms in Underdeveloped Countries

Authors: Haga Abdelrahman Elimam

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This paper investigates the connotation, and some of the realistic implications, of the economic reform of health sector in under developed countries. The paper investigates the issues that economic reforms have to address, and the policy targets they are considered to accomplish. The work argues that the development of economic reform is not connected only with understanding the priorities and refining them, furthermore with reformation and restructuring the organizations through which health policies are employed. Considering various organizational values, that are likely to be regular to all economic reform programs, a regulatory approach to institutional reform is unsuitable. The paper further investigates the selection of economic reform that may as well influence via technical suggestions and analysis, but the verdict to continue, and the consequent success of execution, eventually depends on the progressive political sustainability. The paper concludes by giving examples of institutional reforms from various underdeveloped countries and includes recommendation of the responsibility and control of donor organizations.

Keywords: economic reform, health sector, underdeveloped countries, technical suggestions

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471 GIS Application in Surface Runoff Estimation for Upper Klang River Basin, Malaysia

Authors: Suzana Ramli, Wardah Tahir

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Estimation of surface runoff depth is a vital part in any rainfall-runoff modeling. It leads to stream flow calculation and later predicts flood occurrences. GIS (Geographic Information System) is an advanced and opposite tool used in simulating hydrological model due to its realistic application on topography. The paper discusses on calculation of surface runoff depth for two selected events by using GIS with Curve Number method for Upper Klang River basin. GIS enables maps intersection between soil type and land use that later produces curve number map. The results show good correlation between simulated and observed values with more than 0.7 of R2. Acceptable performance of statistical measurements namely mean error, absolute mean error, RMSE, and bias are also deduced in the paper.

Keywords: surface runoff, geographic information system, curve number method, environment

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470 Progressive Structural Capacity Loss Assessment

Authors: M. Zain, Thaung H. Aung, Naveed Anwar

Abstract:

During the service life, a structure may experience extreme loading conditions. The current study proposes a new methodology that covers the effect of uncertainty involved in gravity loadings on key structural elements of new and complex structures by emphasizing on a very realistic assumption that allows the 'Performance-Based Assessment' to be executed on the structure against the gravity loadings. The methodology does not require the complete removal of an element, instead, it permits the incremental reduction in the capacity of key structural elements and preserves the same stiffness of the member in each case of capacity loss. To demonstrate the application of the proposed methodology, a 13 story complex structure is selected that comprises of a diverse structural configuration. The results ensure the structural integrity against the applied gravity loadings, as well as the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: force-deformation relationship, gravity loading, incremental capacity reduction, multi-linear plastic link element, SAP2000, stiffness

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469 The Pen Is Mightier than the Sword: Kurdish Language Policy in Turkey

Authors: Irene Yi

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the development of Kurdish language endangerment in Turkey and Kurdish language education over time. It examines the historical context of the Turkish state, as well as reasons for the Turkish language hegemony. From a linguistic standpoint, the Kurdish language is in danger of extinction despite a large number of speakers, lest Kurdish language education is more widely promoted. The paper argues that Kurdish is no longer in a stable diglossic state; if the current trends continue, the language will lose its vitality. This paper recognizes the importance of education in preserving the language while discussing the changing political and institutional regard for Kurdish education. Lastly, the paper outlines solutions to the issue by looking at a variety of proposals, from creating a Kurdistan to merely changing the linguistic landscape in Turkey. After analysis of possible solutions in terms of realistic ability and effectiveness, the paper concludes that changing linguistic landscape and increasing Kurdish language education are the most ideal first steps in a long fight for Kurdish linguistic equality.

Keywords: endangered, Kurdish, oppression, policy

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468 Spatio-Temporal Properties of p53 States Raised by Glucose

Authors: Md. Jahoor Alam

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Recent studies suggest that Glucose controls several lifesaving pathways. Glucose molecule is reported to be responsible for the production of ROS (reactive oxygen species). In the present work, a p53-MDM2-Glucose model is developed in order to study spatiotemporal properties of the p53 pathway. The systematic model is mathematically described. The model is numerically simulated using high computational facility. It is observed that the variation in glucose concentration level triggers the system at different states, namely, oscillation death (stabilized), sustain and damped oscillations which correspond to various cellular states. The transition of these states induced by glucose is phase transition-like behaviour. Further, the amplitude of p53 dynamics with the variation of glucose concentration level follows power law behaviour, As(k) ~ kϒ, where, ϒ is a constant. Further Stochastic approach is needed for understanding of realistic behaviour of the model. The present model predicts the variation of p53 states under the influence of glucose molecule which is also supported by experimental facts reported by various research articles.

Keywords: oscillation, temporal behavior, p53, glucose

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467 An Augmented Reality Based Self-Learning Support System for Skills Training

Authors: Chinlun Lai, Yu-Mei Chang

Abstract:

In this paper, an augmented reality learning support system is proposed to replace the traditional teaching tool thus to help students improve their learning motivation, effectiveness, and efficiency. The system can not only reduce the exhaust of educational hardware and realistic material, but also provide an eco-friendly and self-learning practical environment in any time and anywhere with immediate practical experiences feedback. To achieve this, an interactive self-training methodology which containing step by step operation directions is designed using virtual 3D scenario and wearable device platforms. The course of nasogastric tube care of nursing skills is selected as the test example for self-learning and online test. From the experimental results, it is observed that the support system can not only increase the student’s learning interest but also improve the learning performance than the traditional teaching methods. Thus, it fulfills the strategy of learning by practice while reducing the related cost and effort significantly and is practical in various fields.

Keywords: augmented reality technology, learning support system, self-learning, simulation learning method

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466 Modeling of Dam Break Flood Wave Propagation Using HEC-RAS 2D and GIS: A Case Study of Taksebt Dam in Algeria

Authors: Abdelghani Leghouchi

Abstract:

This study aims to predict the consequences associated with the propagation of the flood wave that may occur after the failure of the Taksebt dam and suggest an efficient emergency action plan (EAP) for mitigation purposes. To achieve the objectives of this study, the hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS 2D was used for the flood routing of the dam break wave, which gave an estimate of the hydraulic characteristics downstream the Taksebt dam. Geospatial analysis of the simulation results conducted in a Geographic information system (GIS) environment showed that many residential areas are considered to be in danger in case of the Taksebt dam break event. Based on the obtained results, an emergency actions plan was suggested to moderate the causalities in the downstream area at risk. Overall, the present study showed that the integration of 2D hydraulic modeling and GIS provides great capabilities in providing realistic view of the dam break wave propagation that enhances assessing the associated risks and proposing appropriate mitigation measures.

Keywords: taksebt dam, dam break, wave propagation time, HEC-RAS 2D

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465 Optimistic Expectations and Satisfaction with Life as Antecedents of Emigration Attitudes among Bulgarian Millennials and Zoomers

Authors: Diana Ivanova Bakalova, Ekaterina Evtimova Dimitrova

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The purpose of this paper is to examine the predictive power of optimistic expectations and satisfaction with life in the country of origin and residence – Bulgaria, over the attitudes towards emigration among young Bulgarians with regard to their generational belonging and differences (i.e. Generation Y or Millennials, born between 1981-1995/6, and Generation Z or Zoomers, born between 1996/7-2012). Although the correlation between satisfaction with life and migration (attitudes) has been studied in some countries, it has neither been examined to date in Bulgaria – a sending rather than receiving Eastern European country, nor scrutinized in the light of generational differences. Within a national survey(N=1200), representative of young Bulgarians aged 18-35 years – Zoomers aged 18-25years (N=444) and Millennials aged 26-35 years (N=756), carried out in September-October 2021, optimistic expectations and satisfaction with life in Bulgaria were respectively measured by a 5-item and4-item scales. The scales were designed to measure optimistic expectations and satisfaction with life in the country, as both general constructs and in terms of specific areas of life (education, profession, career, and income). The findings suggest that the higher satisfaction with life in Bulgaria is associated with more optimistic expectations about one’s further professional, financial, and career growth in the country and reasonably, with more negative attitudes towards emigration of young Bulgarians. Although no significant differences were found between Millennials and Zoomers in their optimistic expectations and satisfaction with life in Bulgaria, Millennials are still significantly less likely to emigrate than Zoomers. Positively, the population of young Bulgarians demonstrates higher than average satisfaction with life and optimism for their prospects in the country combined with neutral to negative overall attitudes towards emigration. These findings have some important interdisciplinary psychological and demographic theoretical, applied, and policy implications. The survey is carried out under Project КП-06-Н35/4 “Psychological determinants of young people's attitudes to emigration and life planning in the context of demographic challenges in Bulgaria,” funded by the NSF - MES, Bulgaria.

Keywords: optimistic expectations, life satisfaction, emigration attitudes, young bulgerians

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464 Analysis of the Aquifer Vulnerability of a Miopliocene Arid Area Using Drastic and SI Models

Authors: H. Majour, L. Djabri

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Many methods in the groundwater vulnerability have been developed in the world (methods like PRAST, DRIST, APRON/ARAA, PRASTCHIM, GOD). In this study, our choice dealt with two recent complementary methods using category mapping of index with weighting criteria (Point County Systems Model MSCP) namely the standard DRASTIC method and SI (Susceptibility Index). At present, these two methods are the most used for the mapping of the intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater. Two classes of groundwater vulnerability in the Biskra sandy aquifer were identified by the DRASTIC method (average and high) and the SI method (very high and high). Integrated analysis has revealed that the high class is predominant for the DRASTIC method whereas for that of SI the preponderance is for the very high class. Furthermore, we notice that the method SI estimates better the vulnerability for the pollution in nitrates, with a rate of 85 % between the concentrations in nitrates of groundwater and the various established classes of vulnerability, against 75 % for the DRASTIC method. By including the land use parameter, the SI method produced more realistic results.

Keywords: DRASTIC, SI, GIS, Biskra sandy aquifer, Algeria

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