Search results for: quasi-maximum likelihood estimate

Authors: Zafar Beg, Kumar Gaurav

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The lost Saraswati is described as a large perennial river which was 'lost' in the desert towards the end of the Indus-Saraswati civilisation. It has been proposed earlier that the lost Saraswati flowed in the Sutlej-Yamuna interfluve, parallel to the present day Indus River. It is believed that one of the earliest known ancient civilizations, the 'Indus-Saraswati civilization' prospered along the course of the Saraswati River. The demise of the Indus civilization is considered to be due to desiccation of the river. Today in the Sutlej-Yamuna interfluve, we observe an ephemeral river, known as Ghaggar. It is believed that along with the Ghaggar River, two other Himalayan Rivers Sutlej and Yamuna were tributaries of the lost Saraswati and made a significant contribution to its discharge. Presence of a large number of archaeological sites and the occurrence of thick fluvial sand bodies in the subsurface in the Sutlej-Yamuna interfluve has been used to suggest that the Saraswati River was a large perennial river. Further, the wider course of about 4-7 km recognized from satellite imagery of Ghaggar-Hakra belt in between Suratgarh and Anupgarh strengthens this hypothesis. Here we develop a methodology to estimate the paleo discharge and paleo width of the lost Saraswati River. In doing so, we rely on the hypothesis which suggests that the ancient Saraswati River used to carry the combined flow or some part of the Yamuna, Sutlej and Ghaggar catchments. We first established a regime relationship between the drainage area-channel width and catchment area-discharge of 29 different rivers presently flowing on the Himalayan Foreland from Indus in the west to the Brahmaputra in the East. We found the width and discharge of all the Himalayan rivers scale in a similar way when they are plotted against their corresponding catchment area. Using these regime curves, we calculate the width and discharge of paleochannels originating from the Sutlej, Yamuna and Ghaggar rivers by measuring their corresponding catchment area from satellite images. Finally, we add the discharge and width obtained from each of the individual catchments to estimate the paleo width and paleo discharge respectively of the Saraswati River. Our regime curves provide a first-order estimate of the paleo discharge of the lost Saraswati.

Keywords: Indus civilization, palaeochannel, regime curve, Saraswati River

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Authors: Michael Mertel, Lars Friedrich, Kai-Ingo Voigt

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Based on principle-agent theory, an information asymmetry exists in the traditional donation process. Consumers cannot comprehend whether nonprofit organizations (NPOs) use raised funds according to the designated cause after the transaction took place (hidden action). Therefore, charity organizations have tried to appear transparent and gain trust by using the same marketing instruments for decades (e.g., releasing project success reports). However, none of these measures can guarantee consumers that charities will use their donations for the purpose. With awareness of misuse of donations rising due to the Ukraine conflict (e.g., funding crime), consumers are increasingly concerned about the destination of their charitable purposes. Therefore, innovative charities like the Human Rights Foundation have started to offer donations via blockchain. Blockchain technology has the potential to establish profound trust and transparency in the donation process: Consumers can publicly track the progress of their donation at any time after deciding to donate. This ensures that the charity is not using donations against its original intent. Hence, the aim is to investigate the effect of blockchain-enabled transactions on the willingness to donate. Sample and Design: To investigate consumers' behavior, we use a scenario-based experiment. After removing participants (e.g., due to failed attention checks), 3192 potential donors participated (47.9% female, 62.4% bachelor or above). Procedure: We randomly assigned the participants to one of two scenarios. In all conditions, the participants read a scenario about a fictive charity organization called "Helper NPO." Afterward, the participants answered questions regarding their perception of the charity. Manipulation: The first scenario (n = 1405) represents a typical donation process, where consumers donate money without any option to track and trace. The second scenario (n = 1787) represents a donation process via blockchain, where consumers can track and trace their donations respectively. Using t-statistics, the findings demonstrate a positive effect of donating via blockchain on participants’ willingness to donate (mean difference = 0.667, p < .001, Cohen’s d effect size = 0.482). A mediation analysis shows significant effects for the mediation of transparency (Estimate = 0.199, p < .001), trust (Estimate = 0.144, p < .001), and transparency and trust (Estimate = 0.158, p < .001). The total effect of blockchain usage on participants’ willingness to donate (Estimate = 0.690, p < .001) consists of the direct effect (Estimate = 0.189, p < .001) and the indirect effects of transparency and trust (Estimate = 0.501, p < .001). Furthermore, consumers' affinity for technology moderates the direct effect of blockchain usage on participants' willingness to donate (Estimate = 0.150, p < .001). Donating via blockchain is a promising way for charities to engage consumers for several reasons: (1) Charities can emphasize trust and transparency in their advertising campaigns. (2) Established charities can target new customer segments by specifically engaging technology-affine consumers in the future. (3) Charities can raise international funds without previous barriers (e.g., setting up bank accounts). Nevertheless, increased transparency can also backfire (e.g., disclosure of costs). Such cases require further research.

Keywords: blockchain, social sector, transparency, trust

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Authors: Tal Remez, Or Litany, Alex Bronstein

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The pursuit of smaller pixel sizes at ever increasing resolution in digital image sensors is mainly driven by the stringent price and form-factor requirements of sensors and optics in the cellular phone market. Recently, Eric Fossum proposed a novel concept of an image sensor with dense sub-diffraction limit one-bit pixels (jots), which can be considered a digital emulation of silver halide photographic film. This idea has been recently embodied as the EPFL Gigavision camera. A major bottleneck in the design of such sensors is the image reconstruction process, producing a continuous high dynamic range image from oversampled binary measurements. The extreme quantization of the Poisson statistics is incompatible with the assumptions of most standard image processing and enhancement frameworks. The recently proposed maximum-likelihood (ML) approach addresses this difficulty, but suffers from image artifacts and has impractically high computational complexity. In this work, we study a variant of a sensor with binary threshold pixels and propose a reconstruction algorithm combining an ML data fitting term with a sparse synthesis prior. We also show an efficient hardware-friendly real-time approximation of this inverse operator. Promising results are shown on synthetic data as well as on HDR data emulated using multiple exposures of a regular CMOS sensor.

Keywords: binary pixels, maximum likelihood, neural networks, sparse coding

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Authors: Fazlul Hoque, Tahmina Akter Joya, Asma Akter, Supawat Rungsuriyawiboon

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Rice is the staple food in Bangladesh, and therefore, self-sufficiency in rice production remains a major concern. However, Bangladesh is experiencing insufficiency in rice production due to high production cost and low national average productivity of 2.848 ton/ha in comparison to other rice-growing countries in the world. This study aims to find out the profit efficiency and determinants of profit efficiency in Boro rice cultivation in Manikganj and Dhaka districts of Bangladesh. It also focuses on technology adoption and effect of technology adoption on profit efficiency of Boro rice cultivation in Bangladesh. The data were collected from 300 households growing Boro rice through face to face interviews by one set structured questionnaire; Frontier Version 4.1 and STATA 15 software were employed to analyze the data according to the purpose of the study. Maximum likelihood estimates of the specified profit model showed that profit efficiency of the farmer varied between 23% and 97% with a mean of 76% which implied as 24% of the profit is lost due to a combination of technical and allocative inefficiencies in Boro rice cultivation in the study area. The inefficiency model revealed that the education level of the farmer, farm size, variety of seed, and training and extension service influence the profit inefficiency significantly. The study also explained that the level of technology adoption index affects profit efficiency. The technology adoption in Boro rice cultivation is influenced by the education level of the farmer, farm size and farm capital.

Keywords: farmer, maximum likelihood estimation, profit efficiency, rice

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Authors: Tengku Nilam Baizura, Noor Zalina Mahmood

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In Malaysia, landfilling is the most preferred method and most of it does not have the proper leachate treatment system which can cause environmental problems. Leachate is the major factor to river water pollution since most landfills are located near the river which is the main water resource for the country. The study aimed to estimate leachate production from landfills in Selangor. A simple mathematical modelling was used for the calculation of annual leachate volume. The estimate of identified landfill area (A) using Google Earth was multiplied by the annual rainfall (R). The product is expressed as volume (V). The data indicate that the leachate production is high even it is fully closed. It is important to design the efficient landfill and proper leachate treatment processes especially for the old/closed landfill. Extensive monitoring will be required to predict future impact.

Keywords: landfill, leachate, municipal solid waste management, waste disposal

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Authors: Elena Castillo-López, Raúl Pereda, Julio Manuel de Luis, Rubén Pérez, Felipe Piña

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Sediments are an important source of accumulation of toxic contaminants within the aquatic environment. Bioassays are a powerful tool for the study of sediments in relation to their toxicity, but they can be expensive. This article presents a methodology to estimate the main physical property of intertidal sediments in coastal zones: heavy metals concentration. This study, which was developed in the Bay of Santander (Spain), applies classical and robust statistic to CASI-2 hyperspectral images to estimate heavy metals presence and ecotoxicity (TOC). Simultaneous fieldwork (radiometric and chemical sampling) allowed an appropriate atmospheric correction to CASI-2 images.

Keywords: remote sensing, intertidal sediment, airborne sensors, heavy metals, eTOCoxicity, robust statistic, estimation

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Authors: Getiye Dejenu Kibret, Daniel Demant, Andrew Hayen

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Introduction: In Ethiopia, more than half of newborn babies do not have access to Emergency Obstetric and Neonatal Care (EmONC) services. Understanding the effect of distance to health facilities on service use and neonatal survival is crucial to recommend policymakers and improve resource distribution. We aimed to investigate the effect of distance to health services on maternal service use and neonatal mortality. Methods: We implemented a data linkage method based on geographic coordinates and calculated straight-line (Euclidean) distances from the Ethiopian 2016 demographic and health survey clusters to the closest health facility. We computed the distance in ESRI ArcGIS Version 10.3 using the geographic coordinates of DHS clusters and health facilities. Generalised Structural Equation Modelling (GSEM) was used to estimate the effect of distance on neonatal mortality. Results: Poor geographic accessibility to health facilities affects maternal service usage and increases the risk of newborn mortality. For every ten kilometres (km) increase in distance to a health facility, the odds of neonatal mortality increased by 1.33% (95% CI: 1.06% to 1.67%). Distance also negatively affected antenatal care, facility delivery and postnatal counselling service use. Conclusions: A lack of geographical access to health facilities decreases the likelihood of newborns surviving their first month of life and affects health services use during pregnancy and immediately after birth. The study also showed that antenatal care use was positively associated with facility delivery service use and that both positively influenced postnatal care use, demonstrating the interconnectedness of the continuum of care for maternal and neonatal care services. Policymakers can leverage the findings from this study to improve accessibility barriers to health services.

Keywords: acessibility, distance, maternal health service, neonatal mortality

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Authors: Dalson Figueiredo, Enivaldo Rocha, Ranulfo Paranhos, José Alexandre

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This paper analyzes the effects of institutional capacity on corruption. Methodologically, the research design combines both descriptive and multivariate statistics to examine two original datasets based on secondary data. In particular, we employ a principal component model to estimate an indicator of institutional capacity for both state audit institutions and subnational judiciary courts. Then, we estimate the effect of institutional capacity on two dependent variables: (1) incidence of administrative irregularities and (2) time elapsed to judge corruption cases. The preliminary results using ordinary least squares, negative binomial and Tobit models suggest the same conclusions: higher the institutional audit capacity, higher is the probability of detecting a corruption case. On the other hand, higher the institutional capacity of state judiciary, the lower is the time to judge corruption cases.

Keywords: institutional capacity, corruption, state level institutions, evidence from Brazil

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Authors: Matthew D. Baffa

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Infrared thermography is a non-destructive test method used to estimate surface temperatures based on the amount of electromagnetic energy radiated by building envelope components. These surface temperatures are indicators of various qualitative building envelope deficiencies such as locations and extent of heat loss, thermal bridging, damaged or missing thermal insulation, air leakage, and moisture presence in roof, floor, and wall assemblies. Although infrared thermography is commonly used for qualitative deficiency detection in buildings, this study assesses its use as a quantitative method to estimate the overall thermal conductance value (U-value) of the exterior above-grade walls of a study home. The overall U-value of exterior above-grade walls in a home provides useful insight into the energy consumption and thermal comfort of a home. Three methodologies from the literature were employed to estimate the overall U-value by equating conductive heat loss through the exterior above-grade walls to the sum of convective and radiant heat losses of the walls. Outdoor infrared thermography field measurements of the exterior above-grade wall surface and reflective temperatures and emissivity values for various components of the exterior above-grade wall assemblies were carried out during winter months at the study home using a basic thermal imager device. The overall U-values estimated from each methodology from the literature using the recorded field measurements were compared to the nominal exterior above-grade wall overall U-value calculated from materials and dimensions detailed in architectural drawings of the study home. The nominal overall U-value was validated through calendarization and weather normalization of utility bills for the study home as well as various estimated heat loss quantities from a HOT2000 computer model of the study home and other methods. Under ideal environmental conditions, the estimated overall U-values deviated from the nominal overall U-value between ±2% to ±33%. This study suggests infrared thermography can estimate the overall U-value of exterior above-grade walls in low-rise residential homes with a fair amount of accuracy.

Keywords: emissivity, heat loss, infrared thermography, thermal conductance

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Authors: Saeed Delara, Kendra MacKay

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Varying methodologies are considered for pile design for both Russian and Western approaches. Although both approaches rely on toe and side frictional resistances, different calculation methods are proposed to estimate pile capacity. The Western approach relies on compactness (internal friction angle) of soil for cohesionless soils and undrained shear strength for cohesive soils. The Russian approach relies on grain size for cohesionless soils and liquidity index for cohesive soils. Though most recommended methods in the Western approaches are relatively simple methods to predict pile settlement, the Russian approach provides a detailed method to estimate single pile and pile group settlement. Details to calculate pile axial capacity and settlement using the Russian and Western approaches are discussed and compared against field test results.

Keywords: pile capacity, pile settlement, Russian approach, western approach

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Authors: Sibusiso Mkwananzi

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The health of mother and child remain at risk among pregnant adolescents. Nevertheless, these are placed in even greater jeopardy when an expectant adolescent experiences violence. This paper sought to explore the levels and determinants of expecting adolescents in five Southern African countries. The study used the most recent (2010/2015) nationally representative demographic health survey (DHS) data from Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The highest levels of violence during pregnancy occurred amongst adolescent females living in Zimbabwe at 11.4%, followed by Zambia (8.3%) and Namibia (7.7%). Lowest levels were seen in Mozambique at 3.6%. Additionally, the determinants of experiencing violence during pregnancy included educational attainment, marital status, wealth and place of residence. Expectant adolescents that had a higher likelihood of experiencing violence were married and lived predominantly in rural settings. Higher risk was also associated with lower acquisition of education and poverty. These results show a very similar pattern to the risk factors associated with early pregnancy in the region. The predictors point to issues of possible lowered empowerment amongst younger women in their relationships and the structural challenges faced by this fledgling group. Nevertheless, addressing these dynamics could go a long way in not only decreasing the likelihood of unwanted motherhood at this early stage of the life course, but indeed even ensuring the prevention of violence during wanted early pregnancy. This would lead to improved levels of maternal and child health despite younger maternal age and aid in achieving a number of sustainable development goals.

Keywords: adolescents, determinants, Southern Africa, violence during pregnancy

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Authors: Enrique Castañeda, Tomas Hernadez, Mario Ulloa

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Recent studies related to submarine pipelines under high pressure, temperature and buried, forces us to make bibliographical and documentary research to make us of references applicable to our problem. This paper presents an experimental methodology to the implementation of results obtained in a scale model, bibliography soil mechanics and finite element simulation. The model consists of a tank of 0.60 x 0.90 x 0.60 basis equipped high side windows, tires and digital hardware devices for measuring different variables to be applied to the model, where the mechanical properties of the soil are determined, simulation of drag a pipeline buried in a non-cohesive seafloor of the Gulf of Mexico, estimate the failure surface and application of each of the variables for the determination of mechanical elements.

Keywords: static friction coefficient, maximum passive force resistant soil, normal, tangential stress

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Authors: S. Zenia, A. Menasseria, A. E. Kheidous, F. Lariouna, A. Smai, H. Saadi, F. Haddadj, A. Milla, F. Marniche

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The objective of this study was to estimate the correlation ship between different pheasant external egg quality traits. A total of 938 eggs were collected. Egg weight (g), egg length (mm), egg width (mm), volume (cm3), shape index egg, surface area and water loss were measured. The overall mean values obtained for the different variables are respectively 29.2 ± 2,24, 43.01 ± 1,84, 34.05 ± 1,44, 25.63 ± 2.88 cm3, 79.00 ± 3%, 68% and 13%. Concerning studied regressions, it was considered only the most important regressions. Those that show significant links between the different parameters studied. The ANOVA procedure was applied to estimate correlations for the examined traits. The weights of the eggs being observed before incubation and before hatching are linearly correlated with a positive correlation coefficient of order 0.75. Egg length and the weight before incubation had a good and positive correlation with a coefficient r = 0.6. However, density had high and negative correlations with egg height r = -0.78. Shape index had a good linear and negative r= - 0.71 correlation with water loss.

Keywords: correlation, egg, morphometry of eggs, analysis of variance

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Authors: Taehan Bae

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In this paper, a class of length-biased Weibull mixtures is presented to model loss severity data. The proposed model generalizes the Erlang mixtures with the common scale parameter, and it shares many important modelling features, such as flexibility to fit various data distribution shapes and weak-denseness in the class of positive continuous distributions, with the Erlang mixtures. We show that the asymptotic tail estimate of the length-biased Weibull mixture is Weibull-type, which makes the model effective to fit loss severity data with heavy-tailed observations. A method of statistical estimation is discussed with applications on real catastrophic loss data sets.

Keywords: Erlang mixture, length-biased distribution, transformed gamma distribution, asymptotic tail estimate, EM algorithm, expectation-maximization algorithm

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Authors: Mustafa Al-Yaseen, Haider Mohammed Mahdi, Haider Ali Al–Zahid, Nazar S. Haddad

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Background: Early diagnosis of musculoskeletal infections is of vital importance to avoid devastating complications. There is no single laboratory marker which is sensitive and specific in diagnosing these infections accurately. White blood cell count, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and C-reactive protein are not specific as they can also be elevated in conditions other than bacterial infections. Materials Culture and sensitivity is not a true gold standard due to its varied positivity rates. Serum Procalcitonin is one of the new laboratory markers for pyogenic infections. The objective of this study is to assess the value of PCT in the diagnosis of soft tissue, bone, and joint infections. Patients and Methods: Patients of all age groups (seventy-four patients) with a diagnosis of musculoskeletal infection are prospectively included in this study. All patients were subjected to White blood cell count, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C-reactive protein, and serum Procalcitonin measurements. A healthy non infected outpatient group (twenty-two patients) taken as a control group and underwent the same evaluation steps as the study group. Results: The study group showed mean Procalcitonin levels of 1.3 ng/ml. Procalcitonin, at 0.5 ng/ml, was (42.6%) sensitive and (95.5%) specific in diagnosing of musculoskeletal infections with (positive predictive value of 87.5% and negative predictive value of 48.3%) and (positive likelihood ratio of 9.3 and negative likelihood ratio of 0.6). Conclusion: Serum Procalcitonin, at a cut – off of 0.5 ng/ml, is a specific but not sensitive marker in the diagnosis of musculoskeletal infections, and it can be used effectively to rule in the diagnosis of infection but not to rule out it.

Keywords: procalcitonin, infection, labratory markers, musculoskeletal

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Authors: Siminfar Samakoush Galougah

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In this paper, we study two power allocation problems for an uplink user-centric (UC) cell-free massive multiple-input multiple-output (CF-mMIMO) system. Besides, we assume each access point (AP) is connected to a central processing unit (CPU) via a fronthaul link with limited capacity. To efficiently use the fronthaul capacity, two strategies for transmitting signals from APs to the CPU are employed, namely compress-forward-estimate (CFE) and estimate-compress-forward (ECF). The capacity of the aforementioned strategies in user-centric CF-mMIMO is derived. Then, we solved the two power allocation problems with minimum spectral efficiency (SE) and sum-SE maximization objectives for ECF and CFE strategies.

Keywords: cell-free massive MIMO, limited capacity fronthaul, spectral efficiency, optimization

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Authors: Marian Dragomir, Alin Dragomir

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In the paper, two fault location algorithms are presented for transmission lines which use the line parameters to estimate the distance to the fault. The first algorithm uses only the measurements from one end of the line and the positive and zero sequence parameters of the line, while the second one uses the measurements from both ends of the line and only the positive sequence parameters of the line. The algorithms were tested using a transmission grid transposed in MATLAB. In a first stage it was established a fault location base line, where the algorithms mentioned above estimate the fault locations using the exact line parameters. After that, the positive and zero sequence resistance and reactance of the line were calculated again for different ground resistivity values and then the fault locations were estimated again in order to compare the results with the base line results. The results show that the algorithm which uses the zero sequence impedance of the line is the most sensitive to the line parameters modifications. The other algorithm is less sensitive to the line parameters modification.

Keywords: estimation algorithms, fault location, line parameters, simulation tool

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Authors: Jing Wu, Wei Lv, Yibing Li, Yuanfan You

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The separation of speech signals has become a research hotspot in the field of signal processing in recent years. It has many applications and influences in teleconferencing, hearing aids, speech recognition of machines and so on. The sounds received are usually noisy. The issue of identifying the sounds of interest and obtaining clear sounds in such an environment becomes a problem worth exploring, that is, the problem of blind source separation. This paper focuses on the under-determined blind source separation (UBSS). Sparse component analysis is generally used for the problem of under-determined blind source separation. The method is mainly divided into two parts. Firstly, the clustering algorithm is used to estimate the mixing matrix according to the observed signals. Then the signal is separated based on the known mixing matrix. In this paper, the problem of mixing matrix estimation is studied. This paper proposes an improved algorithm to estimate the mixing matrix for speech signals in the UBSS model. The traditional potential algorithm is not accurate for the mixing matrix estimation, especially for low signal-to noise ratio (SNR).In response to this problem, this paper considers the idea of an improved potential function method to estimate the mixing matrix. The algorithm not only avoids the inuence of insufficient prior information in traditional clustering algorithm, but also improves the estimation accuracy of mixing matrix. This paper takes the mixing of four speech signals into two channels as an example. The results of simulations show that the approach in this paper not only improves the accuracy of estimation, but also applies to any mixing matrix.

Keywords: DBSCAN, potential function, speech signal, the UBSS model

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Authors: Takhul Bakhtiar

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In South Sulawesi Province, there is an active Walanae Fault causing this area to frequently experience earthquakes. This study aims to determine the level of seismicity of the earthquake in order to obtain the potential for earthquakes in the future. The estimation of the potential for earthquakes is then made a scenario model determine the estimated level of shocks as an effort to mitigate earthquake disasters in the region. The method used in this study is the Gutenberg Richter Method through the statistical likelihood approach. This study used earthquake data in the South Sulawesi region in 1972 - 2022. The research location is located at the coordinates of 3.5° – 5.5° South Latitude and 119.5° – 120.5° East Longitude and divided into two segments, namely the northern segment at the coordinates of 3.5° – 4.5° South Latitude and 119,5° – 120,5° East Longitude then the southern segment with coordinates of 4.5° – 5.5° South Latitude and 119,5° – 120.5° East Longitude. This study uses earthquake parameters with a magnitude > 1 and a depth < 50 km. The results of the analysis show that the potential for earthquakes in the next ten years with a magnitude of M = 7 in the northern segment is estimated at 98.81% with an estimated shock level of VI-VII MMI around the cities of Pare-Pare, Barru, Pinrang and Soppeng then IV - V MMI in the cities of Bulukumba, Selayar, Makassar and Gowa. In the southern segment, the potential for earthquakes in the next ten years with a magnitude of M = 7 is estimated at 32.89% with an estimated VI-VII MMI shock level in the cities of Bulukumba, Selayar, Makassar and Gowa, then III-IV MMI around the cities of Pare-Pare, Barru, Pinrang and Soppeng.

Keywords: Gutenberg Richter, likelihood method, seismicity, shakemap and MMI scale

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Authors: Thidathit Prachanukool, Chaiyaporn Yuksen, Welawat Tienpratarn, Sorravit Savatmongkorngul, Panvilai Tangkulpanich, Chetsadakon Jenpanitpong, Yuranan Phootothum, Malivan Phontabtim, Promphet Nuanprom

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Background: Ruptured appendicitis has a high morbidity and mortality and requires immediate surgery. The Alvarado Score is used as a tool to predict the risk of acute appendicitis, but there is no such score for predicting rupture. This study aimed to developed the prediction score to determine the likelihood of ruptured appendicitis in an Asian population. Methods: This study was diagnostic, retrospectively cross-sectional and exploratory model at the Emergency Medicine Department in Ramathibodi Hospital between March 2016 and March 2018. The inclusion criteria were age >15 years and an available pathology report after appendectomy. Clinical factors included gender, age>60 years, right lower quadrant pain, migratory pain, nausea and/or vomiting, diarrhea, anorexia, fever>37.3°C, rebound tenderness, guarding, white blood cell count, polymorphonuclear white blood cells (PMN)>75%, and the pain duration before presentation. The predictive model and prediction score for ruptured appendicitis was developed by multivariable logistic regression analysis. Result: During the study period, 480 patients met the inclusion criteria; of these, 77 (16%) had ruptured appendicitis. Five independent factors were predictive of rupture, age>60 years, fever>37.3°C, guarding, PMN>75%, and duration of pain>24 hours to presentation. A score > 6 increased the likelihood ratio of ruptured appendicitis by 3.88 times. Conclusion: Using the Ramathibodi Welawat Ruptured Appendicitis Score. (RAMA WeRA Score) developed in this study, a score of > 6 was associated with ruptured appendicitis.

Keywords: predictive model, risk score, ruptured appendicitis, emergency room

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Authors: Dorna Kargar, Mehrasa Masih

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Due to its special geological and geographical conditions, Iran has always been exposed to various natural hazards. Earthquake is one of the natural hazards with random nature that can cause significant financial damages and casualties. This is a serious threat, especially in areas with active faults. Therefore, considering the population density in some parts of the country, locating and zoning high-risk areas are necessary and significant. In the present study, seismic hazard assessment via probabilistic and deterministic method for Tehran, the capital of Iran, which is located in Alborz-Azerbaijan province, has been done. The seismicity study covers a range of 200 km from the north of Tehran (X=35.74° and Y= 51.37° in LAT-LONG coordinate system) to identify the seismic sources and seismicity parameters of the study region. In order to identify the seismic sources, geological maps at the scale of 1: 250,000 are used. In this study, we used Kijko-Sellevoll's method (1992) to estimate seismicity parameters. The maximum likelihood estimation of earthquake hazard parameters (maximum regional magnitude Mmax, activity rate λ, and the Gutenberg-Richter parameter b) from incomplete data files is extended to the case of uncertain magnitude values. By the combination of seismicity and seismotectonic studies of the site, the acceleration with antiseptic probability may happen during the useful life of the structure is calculated with probabilistic and deterministic methods. Applying the results of performed seismicity and seismotectonic studies in the project and applying proper weights in used attenuation relationship, maximum horizontal and vertical acceleration for return periods of 50, 475, 950 and 2475 years are calculated. Horizontal peak ground acceleration on the seismic bedrock for 50, 475, 950 and 2475 return periods are 0.12g, 0.30g, 0.37g and 0.50, and Vertical peak ground acceleration on the seismic bedrock for 50, 475, 950 and 2475 return periods are 0.08g, 0.21g, 0.27g and 0.36g.

Keywords: peak ground acceleration, probabilistic and deterministic, seismic hazard assessment, seismicity parameters

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Authors: Xiaohui Wang, Liwei Sun, Guilin Zhang

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Printed circuit board (PCB) is the carrier of electronic components. Its coating is the first barrier for protecting itself. If the coating is damaged, the performance of printed circuit board will decrease rapidly until failure. Therefore, the coating plays an important role in the entire printed circuit board. There are common four kinds of coating of printed circuit board that the material of the coatings are paryleneC, acrylic, polyurethane, silicone. In this paper, we designed an accelerated degradation test of humid and heat for these four kinds of coating. And chose insulation resistance, moisture absorption and surface morphology as its test indexes. By comparing the change of insulation resistance of the coating before and after the test, we estimate failure time of these coatings based on the degradation of insulation resistance. Based on the above, we estimate the service life of the four kinds of PCB.

Keywords: printed circuit board, life assessment, insulation resistance, coating material

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Authors: Mahdi Golriz

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The aim of this work is to estimate the change in molecular structure of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) during peroxide modification can be detected by a simple rheological method. For this purpose a commercial grade LLDPE (Exxon MobileTM LL4004EL) was reacted with different doses of dicumyl peroxide (DCP). The samples were analyzed by size-exclusion chromatography coupled with a light scattering detector. The dynamic shear oscillatory measurements showed a deviation of the δ-׀G ׀٭curve from that of the linear LLDPE, which can be attributed to the presence of long-chain branching (LCB). By the use of a simple rheological method that utilizes melt rheology, transformations in molecular architecture induced on an originally linear low density polyethylene during the early stages of reactive modification were indicated. Reasonable and consistent estimates are obtained, concerning the degree of LCB, the volume fraction of the various molecular species produced in peroxide modification of LLDPE.

Keywords: linear low-density polyethylene, peroxide modification, long-chain branching, rheological method

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Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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The traditional bio-economic method for fisheries modeling uses some estimate of the growth parameters and the system carrying capacity from a biological model for the population dynamics (usually a logistic population growth model) which is then analyzed as a traditional production function. The stock dynamic is transformed into a revenue function and then compared with the extraction costs to estimate the maximum economic yield. In this paper, the logistic population growth model for the population is combined with a forecast of the abundance and location of the stock by using a generalized additive model approach. The paper focuses on the Chilean hake population. This method allows for the incorporation of climatic variables and the interaction with other marine species, which in turn will increase the reliability of the estimates and generate better extraction paths for different conservation objectives, such as the maximum biological yield or the maximum economic yield.

Keywords: bio-economic, fisheries, GAM, production

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Authors: Balachandra Kumaraswamy, P. G. Poonacha

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Automatic Music Information Retrieval has been one of the challenging topics of research for a few decades now with several interesting approaches reported in the literature. In this paper we have developed a pitch extraction method based on a finite Fourier series approximation to the given window of samples. We then estimate pitch as the fundamental period of the finite Fourier series approximation to the given window of samples. This method uses analysis of the strength of harmonics present in the signal to reduce octave as well as harmonic errors. The performance of our method is compared with three best known methods for pitch extraction, namely, Yin, Windowed Special Normalization of the Auto-Correlation Function and Harmonic Product Spectrum methods of pitch extraction. Our study with artificially created signals as well as music files show that Fourier Approximation method gives much better estimate of pitch with less octave and harmonic errors.

Keywords: pitch, fourier series, yin, normalization of the auto- correlation function, harmonic product, mean square error

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Authors: D. Benatiallah, A. Benatiallah, K. Bouchouicha, A. Harouz

Abstract:

The development and operation of renewable energy known an important development in the world with significant growth potential. Estimate the solar radiation on terrestrial geographic locality is of extreme importance, firstly to choose the appropriate site where to place solar systems (solar power plants for electricity generation, for example) and also for the design and performance analysis of any system using solar energy. In addition, solar radiation measurements are limited to a few areas only in Algeria. Thus, we use theoretical approaches to assess the solar radiation on a given location. The Adrar region is one of the most favorable sites for solar energy use with a medium flow that exceeds 7 kWh / m2 / d and saddle of over 3500 hours per year. Our goal in this work focuses on the creation of a data bank for the given data in the energy field of the Adrar region for the period of the year and the month then the integration of these data into a geographic Information System (GIS) to estimate the solar flux on a location on the map.

Keywords: Adrar, flow, GIS, deposit potential

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Authors: V. Kuzhandai Velu, R. Ramesh

Abstract:

Background and objectives: Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is the most common cause of mortality and morbidity. Over the last decade, microRNAs (miRs) have emerged as a potential marker for detecting AMI. The current study evaluates the kinetics and importance of miRs in the differential diagnosis of ST-segment elevated MI (STEMI) and non-STEMI (NSTEMI) and its correlation to conventional biomarkers and to predict the immediate outcome of AMI for arrhythmias and left ventricular (LV) dysfunction. Materials and Method: A total of 100 AMI patients were recruited for the study. Routine cardiac biomarker and miRNA levels were measured during diagnosis and serially at admission, 6, 12, 24, and 72hrs. The baseline biochemical parameters were analyzed. The expression of miRs was compared between STEMI and NSTEMI at different time intervals. Diagnostic utility of miR-1, miR-133, miR-208, and miR-499 levels were analyzed by using RT-PCR and with various diagnostics statistical tools like ROC, odds ratio, and likelihood ratio. Results: The miR-1, miR-133, and miR-499 showed peak concentration at 6 hours, whereas miR-208 showed high significant differences at all time intervals. miR-133 demonstrated the maximum area under the curve at different time intervals in the differential diagnosis of STEMI and NSTEMI which was followed by miR-499 and miR-208. Evaluation of miRs for predicting arrhythmia and LV dysfunction using admission sample demonstrated that miR-1 (OR = 8.64; LR = 1.76) and miR-208 (OR = 26.25; LR = 5.96) showed maximum odds ratio and likelihood respectively. Conclusion: Circulating miRNA showed a highly significant difference between STEMI and NSTEMI in AMI patients. The peak was much earlier than the conventional biomarkers. miR-133, miR-208, and miR-499 can be used in the differential diagnosis of STEMI and NSTEMI, whereas miR-1 and miR-208 could be used in the prediction of arrhythmia and LV dysfunction, respectively.

Keywords: myocardial infarction, cardiac biomarkers, microRNA, arrhythmia, left ventricular dysfunction

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Authors: Pyung Soo Kim, Eung Hyuk Lee, Mun Suck Jang

Abstract:

A packet loss probability (PLP) estimation filter with finite memory structure is proposed to estimate the packet rate mean and variance of the input traffic process in real-time while removing undesired system and measurement noises. The proposed PLP estimation filter is developed under a weighted least square criterion using only the finite traffic measurements on the most recent window. The proposed PLP estimation filter is shown to have several inherent properties such as unbiasedness, deadbeat, robustness. A guideline for choosing appropriate window length is described since it can affect significantly the estimation performance. Using computer simulations, the proposed PLP estimation filter is shown to be superior to the Kalman filter for the temporarily uncertain system. One possible explanation for this is that the proposed PLP estimation filter can have greater convergence time of a filtered estimate as the window length M decreases.

Keywords: packet loss probability estimation, finite memory filter, infinite memory filter, Kalman filter

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Authors: Nastaran Moosavi, Mohammad Mokhtari

Abstract:

Seismic inversion is a technique which has been in use for years and its main goal is to estimate and to model physical characteristics of rocks and fluids. Generally, it is a combination of seismic and well-log data. Seismic inversion can be carried out through different methods; we have conducted and compared post-stack and pre- stack seismic inversion methods on real data in one of the fields in the Persian Gulf. Pre-stack seismic inversion can transform seismic data to rock physics such as P-impedance, S-impedance and density. While post- stack seismic inversion can just estimate P-impedance. Then these parameters can be used in reservoir identification. Based on the results of inverting seismic data, a gas reservoir was detected in one of Hydrocarbon oil fields in south of Iran (Persian Gulf). By comparing post stack and pre-stack seismic inversion it can be concluded that the pre-stack seismic inversion provides a more reliable and detailed information for identification and prediction of hydrocarbon reservoirs.

Keywords: density, p-impedance, s-impedance, post-stack seismic inversion, pre-stack seismic inversion

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Authors: Asmamaw Yehun, Tsegaye Kassa, Addisu Hunegnaw, Martin Vermeer

Abstract:

There are various models to estimate the neutral atmospheric parameter values, such as in-suite and reanalysis datasets from numerical models. Accurate estimated values of the atmospheric parameters are useful for weather forecasting and, climate modeling and monitoring of climate change. Recently, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements have been applied for atmospheric sounding due to its robust data quality and wide horizontal and vertical coverage. The Global Positioning System (GPS) solutions that includes tropospheric parameters constitute a reliable set of data to be assimilated into climate models. The objective of this paper is, to estimate the neutral atmospheric parameters such as Wet Zenith Delay (WZD), Precipitable Water Vapour (PWV) and Total Zenith Delay (TZD) using six selected GPS stations in the equatorial regions, more precisely, the Ethiopian GPS stations from 2012 to 2015 observational data. Based on historic estimated GPS-derived values of PWV, we forecasted the PWV from 2015 to 2030. During data processing and analysis, we applied GAMIT-GLOBK software packages to estimate the atmospheric parameters. In the result, we found that the annual averaged minimum values of PWV are 9.72 mm for IISC and maximum 50.37 mm for BJCO stations. The annual averaged minimum values of WZD are 6 cm for IISC and maximum 31 cm for BDMT stations. In the long series of observations (from 2012 to 2015), we also found that there is a trend and cyclic patterns of WZD, PWV and TZD for all stations.

Keywords: atmosphere, GNSS, neutral atmosphere, precipitable water vapour

Procedia PDF Downloads 30