Search results for: quantitative risk management

Authors: Wan Noorul Hafilah Binti Wan Ariffin

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Dam safety management is the crucial infrastructure as dam failure has a catastrophic effect on the community. Dam safety management is the effective framework of key actions and activities for the dam owner to manage the safety of the dam for its entire life cycle. However, maintaining dam safety is a challenging task as there are changes in current dam states. These changes introduce new risks to the dam's safety, which had not been considered when the dam was designed. A new framework has to be developed to adapt to the changes in the dam risk and make the dams resilient. This study proposes a risk-based decision-making adaptation framework for dam safety management. The research focuses on climate change's impact on hydrological situations as it causes floods and damages the dam structure. The risk analysis framework is adopted to improve the dam management strategies. The proposed study encompasses four phases. To start with, measuring the effect by assessing the impact of climate change on embankment dam, the second phase is to analyze the potential embankment dam failures. The third is analyzing the different components of risks related to the dam and, finally, developing a robust decision-making framework.

Keywords: climate change, embankment dam, failure, risk-informed decision making

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Authors: Seyed Vahid Kamal Alavi

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Italy has experienced a notable quantity and impact of disasters due to natural hazards and technological accidents caused by diverse risk sources on its physical, technological, and human/sociological infrastructures during past decade. This study discusses the frequency and impacts of the most three physical devastating natural hazards in Italy for the period 2000–2013. The approach examines the reliability of a range of open source WebGIS techniques versus a proposed multi-hazard risk management methodology. Spatial and attribute data which include USGS publically available hazard data and thirteen years Munich RE recorded data for Italy with different severities have been processed, visualized in a GIS (Geographic Information System) framework. Comparison of results from the study showed that the multi-hazard risk maps generated using open source techniques do not provide a reliable system to analyze the infrastructures losses in respect to national risk sources while they can be adopted for general international risk management purposes. Additionally, this study establishes the possibility to critically examine and calibrate different integrated techniques in evaluating what better protection measures can be taken in an area.

Keywords: multi-hazard risk mapping, risk management, GIS, Italy

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Authors: Y. K. Park, B. K. Kim, J. W. Lee, S. J. Lee

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To assess the risk of the underground structures and surrounding ground, we collect basic data by the engineering method of measurement, exploration and surveys and, derive the risk through proper analysis and each assessment for urban railroad underground structures and surrounding ground including station inflow. Basic data are obtained by the fiber-optic sensors, MEMS sensors, water quantity/quality sensors, tunnel scanner, ground penetrating radar, light weight deflectometer, and are evaluated if they are more than the proper value or not. Based on these data, we analyze the risk level of urban railroad underground structures and surrounding ground. And we develop the risk management system to manage efficiently these data and to support a convenient interface environment at input/output of data.

Keywords: urban railroad, underground structures, ground subsidence, station inflow, risk

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Authors: Daniel Mokatsanyane, Johnny Jansen Van Rensburg

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This paper is a concise introduction of the risk management on the water derivatives market. Water, a new commodity in the market, is one of the most important commodity on earth. As important to life and planet as crops, metals, and energy, none of them matters without water. This paper presents a brief overview of water as a tradable commodity via a new first of its kind futures contract on the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index (NQH2O) derivative instrument, TheGeneralised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) statistical model will be the used to measure the water price volatility of the instrument and its performance since it’s been traded. describe the main products and illustrate their usage in risk management and also discuss key challenges with modeling and valuation of water as a traded commodity and finally discuss how water derivatives may be taken as an alternative asset investment class.

Keywords: water derivatives, commodity market, nasdaq veles california water Index (NQH2O, water price, risk management

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Authors: Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi, Jordi Moreno Gené

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Managerial actions which negatively profile banks and impair corporate reputation are addressed through effective internal control systems. Disregard for acceptable standards and procedures for granting credit have affected bank loan portfolios and could be cited for the crises in some European countries. The study intends to determine the effectiveness of internal control systems, investigate whether perceived agency problems exist on the part of board members and to establish the relationship between internal controls and credit risk among listed banks in the European Union. Drawing theoretical support from the behavioural compliance and agency theories, about seventeen internal control variables (drawn from the revised COSO framework), bank-specific, country, stock market and macro-economic variables will be involved in the study. A purely quantitative approach will be employed to model internal control variables covering the control environment, risk management, control activities, information and communication and monitoring. Panel data from 2005-2014 on listed banks from 28 European Union countries will be used for the study. Hypotheses will be tested and the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) regression will be run to establish the relationship between dependent and independent variables. The Hausman test will be used to select whether random or fixed effect model will be used. It is expected that listed banks will have sound internal control systems but their effectiveness cannot be confirmed. A perceived agency problem on the part of the board of directors is expected to be confirmed. The study expects significant effect of internal controls on credit risk. The study will uncover another perspective of internal controls as not only an operational risk issue but credit risk too. Banks will be cautious that observing effective internal control systems is an ethical and socially responsible act since the collapse (crisis) of financial institutions as a result of excessive default is a major contagion. This study deviates from the usual primary data approach to measuring internal control variables and rather models internal control variables in a quantitative approach for the panel data. Thus a grey area in approaching the revised COSO framework for internal controls is opened for further research. Most bank failures and crises could be averted if effective internal control systems are religiously adhered to.

Keywords: agency theory, credit risk, internal controls, revised COSO framework

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Authors: Fatin Fadhilah Hasib, Puji Sucia Sukmaningrum, Imron Mawardi, Achsania Hendratmi

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Murabaha is the most popular contract by the Islamic banks in Indonesia, since there is opinion stating that the risk level of mudharaba and musyaraka are higher and the return is uncertain. This research aims to analyze the difference of return, risk, and variation coefficient between profit sharing-based and trading-based financing in Islamic bank. This research uses quantitative approach using Wilcoxon signed rank test with data sampled from 13 Indonesian Islamic banks, collected from their quarterly financial reports from 2011 to 2015. The result shows the significant difference in return, while risk and variation coefficient are almost same. From the analysis, it can be concluded that profit sharing-based financing is less desirable not because of its risk. Trading-based financing is more desirable than the profit sharing because of its return.

Keywords: financing, Islamic bank, return, risk

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan, Inga A. Koryagina, Maria Nikishova

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The study investigates the impact of the ongoing financial crisis, started in the 2^nd half of 2014, on marketing budgets spent by Fast-moving consumer goods companies. In these conditions, special importance is given to efficient possessory risk management systems. The main objective for establishing and developing possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies in a crisis is to analyze the data relating to the external environment and consumer behavior in a crisis. Another important objective for possessory risk management systems of FMCG companies is to develop measures and mechanisms to maintain and stimulate sales. In this regard, analysis of risks and threats which consumers define as the main reasons affecting their level of consumption become important. It is obvious that in crisis conditions the effective risk management systems responsible for development and implementation of strategies for consumer demand stimulation, as well as the identification, analysis, assessment and management of other types of risks of economic security will be the key to sustainability of a company. In terms of financial and economic crisis, the problem of forming and developing possessory risk management systems becomes critical not only in the context of management models of FMCG companies, but for all the companies operating in other sectors of the Russian economy. This study attempts to analyze the specifics of formation and development of company possessory risk management systems. In the modern economy, special importance among all the types of owner’s risks has the risk of reduction in consumer activity. This type of risk is common not only for the consumer goods trade. Study of consumer activity decline is especially important for Russia due to domestic market of consumer goods being still in the development stage, despite its significant growth. In this regard, it is especially important to form and develop possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies. The authors offer their own interpretation of the process of forming and developing possessory risk management systems within owner’s management models of FMCG companies as well as in Russian economy in general. Proposed methods and mechanisms of problem analysis of formation and development of possessory risk management systems in FMCG companies and the results received can be helpful for researchers interested in problems of consumer goods market development in Russia and overseas.

Keywords: FMCG companies, marketing budget, risk management, owner, Russian economy, organization, formation, development, system

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Authors: Mustapha Achibane, Imane Allam

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Since the nineties, all Moroccan banking institutions have to respect an arsenal of prudential ratios. The respect of these prudential measures aims to ensure the financial system stability. In order to do so, regulatory authorities tried to reduce the financial and operational risks incurred by the banking entities. Meanwhile, regulatory authorities demanded a balance sheet management work from banks. They also asked them to establish a management control system to manage operational risk, as well as an effort in terms of incurred risk-based commitments. Therefore, the prudential approach has a macroeconomic nature and it is presented as a determinant of the operational, microeconomic approach. This operational approach takes the form of a strategy that each banking entity must develop to manage the different banking risks. This study seeks to analyze the problem of risk management between the prudential and the operational approaches. It was processed through a literature review followed by an analysis of the Moroccan banking sector’s performance. At first, we will reconcile the inductive logic and then, the analytical one. The first approach consists of analyzing the phenomenon from a normative and conceptual perspective, while the second one will consist of considering the Moroccan banking system and analyzing the behavior of Moroccan banking entities in terms of risk management and performance. The results identified a favorable growth in terms of performance, despite the huge provisioning effort made to meet the international standards and the harmonization of the regulations.

Keywords: banking performance, financial intermediation, operational approach, prudential standards, risk management

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Authors: Batool Ismaeel, Umair Farooq, Saad Mushtaq

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Construction projects in the oil industry can be very complex, having unknown outcomes and uncertainties that cannot be easily predicted. Each project has its unique risks generated by a number of factors which, if not controlled, will impact the successful completion of the project mainly in terms of schedule, cost, quality, and safety. This paper highlights the historic risks associated with projects in the south and east region of Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) collated from the company’s lessons learned database. Starting from Contract Award through to handover of the project to the Asset owner, the gaps in project execution in terms of managing risk will be brought to discussion and where a well-defined systematic approach in project risk management reflecting many claims, change of scope, exceeding budget, delays in engineering phase as well as in the procurement and fabrication of long lead items should be adopted. This study focuses on a proposed feasible approach in risk management for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) level projects including the various stakeholders involved in executing the works from International to local contractors and vendors in KOC. The proposed approach covers the areas categorized into organizational, design, procurement, construction, pre-commissioning, commissioning and project management in which the risks are identified and require management and mitigation. With the effective deployment and implementation of the proposed risk management system and the consideration of it as a vital key in achieving the project’s target, the outcomes will be more predictable in the future, and the risk triggers will be managed and controlled. The correct resources can be allocated on a timely basis for the company for avoiding any unpredictable outcomes during the execution of the project. It is recommended in this paper to apply this risk management approach as an integral part of project management and investigate further in the future, the effectiveness of this proposed system for newly awarded projects and compare the same with those projects of similar budget/complexity that have not applied this approach to risk management.

Keywords: construction, project completion, risk management, uncertainties

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Authors: D. Moser, D. Pinto, A. Cipriano

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A Disaster Management System (DMS) for countries with different disasters is very important. In the world different disasters like earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruption, fire or other natural or man-made disasters occurs and have an effect on the population. It is also possible that two or more disasters arisen at the same time, this means to handle multi-risk situations. To handle such a situation a Decision Support System (DSS) based on multiagents is a suitable architecture. The most known DMSs deal with one (in the case of an earthquake-tsunami combination with two) disaster and often with one particular disaster. Nevertheless, a DSS helps for a better realtime response. Analyze the existing systems in the literature and expand them for multi-risk disasters to construct a well-organized system is the proposal of our work. The here shown work is an approach of a multi-risk system, which needs an architecture, and well-defined aims. In this moment our study is a kind of case study to analyze the way we have to follow to create our proposed system in the future.

Keywords: decision support system, disaster management system, multi-risk, multiagent system

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Authors: Siti Nor Amira Bt. Mohamad, Mohamad Yazis B. Ali Basah, Muhammad Ridhwan B. Ab. Aziz, Khairil Faizal B. Khairi, Mazlynda Bt. Md. Yusuf, Hisham B. Sabri

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The understanding of risk and the concept of it occurs associated in Islamic financing was well-known in the financial industry by the using of Profit-and-Loss Sharing (PLS). It was presently in any Islamic financial transactions in order to comply with shariah rules. However, the existence of risk in Murabahah contract of financing is an ability that the counterparty is unable to complete its obligations within the agreed terms. Therefore, it is called as credit or default risk. Credit risk occurs when the client fails to make timely payment after the bank makes complete delivery of assets. Thus, it affects the growth of the bank as the banking business is in no position to have appropriate measures to cover the risk. Therefore, the bank may impose penalty on the outstanding balance. This paper aims to highlight the credit risk determinant and issues surrounding in Islamic bank in Malaysia in terms of Murabahah financing and how to manage it by using the proper techniques. Finally, it explores the credit risk management concept that might solve the problems arise. The study found that the credit risk can be managed properly by improving the use of comprehensive reference checklist of business partners on their character and past performance as well as their comprehensive database. Besides that, prevention of credit risk can be done by using collateral as security against the risk and we also argue on the Shariah guidelines and procedures should be implement coherently by the banking business because so that the risk would be control by having an effective instrument for Islamic modes of financing.

Keywords: Islamic banking, credit risk, Murabahah financing, risk mitigation

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Authors: Maha Mourad

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Higher education in any competitive European economy should serve the new information society by increasing the supply of good quality education services and by creating good international brands in the international higher education market. Hence, continuous risk management techniques through higher educational reforms programs became one of the top priorities within the European Union to control the quality of higher education. Risk is higher education is studies by several researchers who agreed that the risk in higher education has a direct influence on continuity of quality education and research contribution. The focus of this research is to highlights the Internal Quality Assurance (IQA) activities in the Polish higher education system as a risk management tool used to control the quality of education. This paper presents a qualitative empirical analysis in 5 different universities in Poland. In addition, it aims to help in finding global practical and create benchmark for policy makers concerning the risk management techniques based on the Polish experience.

Keywords: education development, quality assurance, sustainability, european higher education

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Authors: Mohammad Hadi Khorashadi Zadeh, Amin Karkon, Seyd Mohammad Reza Mashhoori

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The technology of computer audit played a major role in the progress and prospects of a proper application to improve the quality and efficiency of audit work. But due to the technical complexity and the specific risks of computer audit, it should be shown effective in audit and preventive action. Mainly through research in this paper, we propose the causes of audit risk in a computer environment and the risk of further proposals for measures to control, to some extent reduce the risk of computer audit and improve the audit quality.

Keywords: computer auditing, risk, measures to prevent, information management

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Authors: Linda Kauškale, Ineta Geipele

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Due to the rapidly changing external environment, portfolio management strategies became closely interconnected with real estate industry development and macroeconomic development tendencies. The aim of the research is to analyze sustainable real estate market development influencing factors, with particular focus on its economic and management aspects that influences real estate investment decisions as well. Scientific literature and article analysis, data analysis, expert evaluation, and other quantitative and qualitative research methods were used in the research. Developed real estate market sustainability model and index analysis approach can be applied by investors and real estate companies in real estate asset management and can help in risk minimization activities in international entrepreneurship. Future research directions have been identified in the research as well.

Keywords: indexes, investment decisions, real estate market, sustainability

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Authors: Ilzira A. Minigalieva

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Assessment of cumulative health risks associated with the widely observed combined exposures to two or more metals and their compounds on the organism in industrial or general environment, as well as respective regulatory and technical risk management decision-making have presumably the theoretical and experimental toxicology of mixtures as their reliable scientific basis. Analysis of relevant literature and our own experience proves, however, that there is no full match between these different practices. Moreover, some of the contradictions between them are of a fundamental nature. This unsatisfactory state of things may be explained not only by unavoidable simplifications characteristic of the methodologies of risk assessment and permissible exposure standards setting but also by the extreme intrinsic complexity of the combined toxicity theory, the most essential issues of which are considered and briefly discussed in this paper.

Keywords: toxic metals, nanoparticles, typology of combined toxicity, mathematical modeling, health risk assessment and management

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Authors: Puji Sucia Sukmaningrum, Achsania Hendratmi, Noven Suprayogi, Muhammad Madyan

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Theoretically, Islamic banks in Indonesia and Malaysia not necessarily aware to the interest rate fluctuation, since they don’t use interest-based instruments. Both countries use dual banking system in which Islamic and conventional banking system are exist. This situation makes the profit-sharing level of the Islamic banks will be indirectly affected by the interest rate fluctuation from the conventional banks system. One of the risk management tools for anticipating the risk of interest rate fluctuation is gap management, which has purpose to narrow the difference between Rate Sensitive Asset (RSA) and Rate Sensitive Liability (RSL). This formed gap will give the information about the risk potential in Islamic banks which respect to the fluctuation on the interest rate. This study aims to determine the position of the gap formed at Islamic Maybank Indonesia and Islamic Maybank Malaysia, and analyze the difference in the formation of gap based on the period of sensitivity. This study is a quantitative research with comparative study using sensitivity gap analysis, independent sample t-test, and Mann-Whitney method. The data being used was secondary data from Maturity Profile contained in the Annual Financial Report of Islamic Maybank Indonesia and Islamic Maybank Malaysia from 2011 to 2015 period. The result shows that, cumulatively the formation of the gap was negative gap. From the results of independent sample t-test and Mann-Whitney, the formation of the gap in Islamic Maybank Indonesia and Islamic Maybank Malaysia for a period of sensitivity of ≤ 1 month and >1-3 months show a significant difference, while the period of sensitivity >3-12 months does not. The result shows, even though Indonesia and Malaysia using same dual banking systems, the gap values are different. The difference in debt policy between Indonesia and Malaysia also affecting the gap sensitivity in debt. In can be concluded that each country needs an appropriate gap management to support its Islamic banking performance specifically.

Keywords: assets and liability management, gap management, interest rate risk, Islamic bank

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Authors: Malani Herath, Sohan Wijesekera, Jagath Munasingha

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The impact of recent floods become significant, and the extraordinary flood events cause considerable damage to lives, properties, environment and negatively affect the whole development of Colombo urban region. Even though the Colombo urban region experiences recurrent flood impacts, several spatial planning interventions have been taken from time to time since early 20th century. All past plans have adopted a traditional approach to flood management, using infrastructural measures to reduce the chance of flooding together with rigid planning regulations. The existing flood risk management practices do not operate to be acceptable by the local community particular the urban poor. Researchers have constantly reported the differences in estimations of flood risk, priorities, concerns of experts and the local community. Risk-based decision making in flood management is not only a matter of technical facts; it has a significant bearing on how flood risk is viewed by local community and individuals. Moreover, sustainable flood management is an integrated approach, which highlights joint actions of experts and community. This indicates the necessity of further societal discussion on the acceptable level of flood risk indicators to prioritize and identify the appropriate flood management measures in Colombo. The understanding and evaluation of flood risk by local people are important to integrate in the decision-making process. This research questioned about the gap between the acceptable level of flood risk to spatial planners and to the local communities in Colombo. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to prepare a framework to analyze the public perception in Colombo. This research work identifies the factors that affect the variation of flood risk and acceptable levels to both local community and planning authorities.

Keywords: Colombo basin, public perception, urban flood risk, multi-criteria analysis

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Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Ali Rostami

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The objective of off-site construction manufacturing is to utilise the workforce and machinery in a controlled environment without external interference for higher productivity and quality. The usage of prefabricated components can save up to 14% of the total energy consumption in comparison with the equivalent number of cast-in-place ones. Despite the benefits of prefabrication construction, its current project practices encompass technical and managerial issues. Building design, precast components’ production, logistics, and prefabrication installation processes are still mostly discontinued and fragmented. Furthermore, collaboration among prefabrication manufacturers, transportation parties, and on-site assemblers rely on real-time information such as the status of precast components, delivery progress, and the location of components. From the technical point of view, in this industry, geometric variability is still prevalent, which can be caused during the transportation or production of components. These issues indicate that there are still many aspects of prefabricated construction that can be developed using disruptive technologies. Practical real-time risk analysis can be used to address these issues as well as the management of safety, quality, and construction environment issues. On the other hand, the lack of research about risk assessment and the absence of standards and tools hinder risk management modeling in prefabricated construction. It is essential to note that no risk management standard has been established explicitly for prefabricated construction projects, and most software packages do not provide tailor-made functions for this type of projects.

Keywords: project risk management, risk analysis, risk modelling, prefabricated construction projects

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Authors: Yunfan Jiang

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In response to an identified gap in available treatment programmes for high-risk offenders with multiple criminogenic needs and guided by emerging literature in the field of correctional rehabilitation, Singapore Prison Service (SPS) developed the Integrated Criminogenic Programme (ICP) in 2012. This evidence-informed psychological programme was designed to address all seven dynamic criminogenic needs (from the Central 8) of high-risk offenders by applying concepts from rehabilitation and psychological theories such as Risk-Need-Responsivity, Good Lives Model, narrative identity, and motivational interviewing. This programme also encompasses a 6-month community maintenance component for the purpose of providing structured step-down support in the aftercare setting. These sessions provide participants the opportunity for knowledge reinforcement and application of skills attained in-care. A quantitative evaluation of the ICP showed that the intervention group had statistically significant improvements across time in most self-report measures of criminal attitudes, substance use attitudes, and psychosocial functioning. This was congruent with qualitative data from participants saying that the ICP had the most impact on their criminal thinking patterns and management of behaviours in high-risk situations. Results from the comparison group showed no difference in their criminal attitudes, even though they reported statistically significant improvements across time in their substance use attitudes and some self-report measures of psychosocial functioning. The programme’s efficacy was also apparent in the lower rates of recidivism and relapse within 12 months for the intervention group. The management of staff issues arising from the development and implementation of an innovative high-intensity psychological programme such as the ICP will also be discussed.

Keywords: evaluation, forensic psychology, intervention programme, offender rehabilitation

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Authors: Sergey Podluzhnyy

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One of the most important tasks of investment and pension fund management is building decision support system which helps to make right decision on corporate bond portfolio formation. Today there are several basic methods of bond portfolio management. They are duration management, immunization and convexity management. Identified methods have serious disadvantage: they do not take into account credit risk or insolvency risk of issuer. So, identified methods can be applied only for management and evaluation of high-quality sovereign bonds. Applying article proposes mathematical model for building an optimal in case of risk and yield corporate bond portfolio. Proposed model takes into account the default probability in formula of assessment of bonds which results to more correct evaluation of bonds prices. Moreover, applied model provides tools for visualization of the efficient frontier of corporate bonds portfolio taking into account the exposure to credit risk, which will increase the quality of the investment decisions of portfolio managers.

Keywords: corporate bond portfolio, default probability, effective boundary, portfolio optimization task

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Authors: Marinko Maslaric, Maja Jokic

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When searching for fast and long term responses, sustainable logistics and supply chain applications have developed irrefutable theories and hypotheses towards market requirements. Nevertheless, there are certain misunderstandings on how the implementation of sustainability principles (social, economical, and environmental) and concepts should work in practice, more specifically, within a humanitarian supply chain management context. This paper will focus on the review and analysis of risk management concepts in humanitarian supply chain in order to identify their compliance with sustainable principles. In this direction, the study will look for strategies that suggest: minimization of environmental impacts throughout the reduction of resources consumption, depreciation of logistics costs, including supply chain ones, minimization of transportation and service costs, elaboration of quality performance of supply chain and logistics, and reduction of supply chain delivery time. On the side of meeting all defense, trades and humanitarian logistics needs, the research will be aligned to UN Sustainable Development Goals, standards, and performances. It will start with relevant strategies for identification of risk indicators and it will end with suggestion of valuable strategic approaches for their minimization or total prevention. Finally, a content analysis will propose a suitable methodological structure for the creation of most sustainable strategy in risk management of humanitarian supply chain. Content analysis will accompany thorough, consistent and methodical approach of literature review for potential disaster risk management plan. Thereupon, the propositions of this research will look for contemporary literature gaps, with respect to operate the literature analysis and to suggest the appropriate sustained risk low master plan. The indicated is here to secure the high quality of logistics practices in hazardous events.

Keywords: humanitarian logistics, sustainability, supply chain risk, risk management plan

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Authors: Abdulrahman H. Alrashidi

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Kuwait Oil Company provides health care services through Ahmadi hospital for oil sector employee and their families. Due to increasing number of entitled patients in Ahmadi hospital, the company starts health insurance option in 2010. In addition, a new Ahmadi hospital decided to build to accumulate all entitled patients. Operation and management of new Ahmadi hospital investigated in this research. In order to maintain the high quality of medical services and satisfaction rate among oil sector community and reducing the operation cost. Six operation and management options evaluated in order to implement in new Ahmadi hospital. Qualitative Risk assessment method used to investigate proposed options for operation and management of new Ahmadi hospital. Evaluation criteria consist of quality of medical services, operation cost and satisfaction rate among oil sector community. Results show that using the same operation and management system in existing Ahmadi hospital with new Ahmadi hospital will bring cost higher. This approach brings risk to KOC. Results from risk assessment show that partially operated new Ahmadi hospital is the best opportunity to meet the objectives of KOC’s medical group.

Keywords: Kuwait Oil Company, new Ahmadi hospital, operation and management, risk assessment

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Authors: Henry Lau, Dilupa Nakandala, Li Zhao

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In today’s business, it is well-recognized that risk is an important factor that needs to be taken into consideration before a decision is made. Studies indicate that both the number of risks faced by organizations and their potential consequences are growing. Supply chain risk management has become one of the major concerns for practitioners and researchers. Supply chain leaders and scholars are now focusing on the importance of managing supply chain risk. In order to meet the challenge of managing and mitigating supply chain risk (SCR), we must first identify the different dimensions of SCR and assess its relevant probability and severity. SCR has been classified in many different ways, and there are no consistently accepted dimensions of SCRs and several different classifications are reported in the literature. Basically, supply chain risks can be classified into two dimensions namely disruption risk and operational risk. Disruption risks are those caused by events such as bankruptcy, natural disasters and terrorist attack. Operational risks are related to supply and demand coordination and uncertainty, such as uncertain demand and uncertain supply. Disruption risks are rare but severe and hard to manage, while operational risk can be reduced through effective SCM activities. Other SCRs include supply risk, process risk, demand risk and technology risk. In fact, the disorganized classification of SCR has created confusion for SCR scholars. Moreover, practitioners need to identify and assess SCR. As such, it is important to have an overarching framework tying all these SCR dimensions together for two reasons. First, it helps researchers use these terms for communication of ideas based on the same concept. Second, a shared understanding of the SCR dimensions will support the researchers to focus on the more important research objective: operationalization of SCR, which is very important for assessing SCR. In general, fresh food supply chain is subject to certain level of risks, such as supply risk (low quality, delivery failure, hot weather etc.) and demand risk (season food imbalance, new competitors). Effective strategies to mitigate fresh food supply chain risk are required to enhance operations. Before implementing effective mitigation strategies, we need to identify the risk sources and evaluate the risk level. However, assessing the supply chain risk is not an easy matter, and existing research mainly use qualitative method, such as risk assessment matrix. To address the relevant issues, this paper aims to analyze the risk factor of the fresh food supply chain using an approach comprising both fuzzy logic and hierarchical holographic modeling techniques. This novel approach is able to take advantage the benefits of both of these well-known techniques and at the same time offset their drawbacks in certain aspects. In order to develop this integrated approach, substantial research work is needed to effectively combine these two techniques in a seamless way, To validate the proposed integrated approach, a case study in a fresh food supply chain company was conducted to verify the feasibility of its functionality in a real environment.

Keywords: fresh food supply chain, fuzzy logic, hierarchical holographic modelling, operationalization, supply chain risk

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Authors: Érick Aragão Ribeiro, George André Pereira Thé, José Marques Soares

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Several problems in industrial supervision software development projects may lead to the delay or cancellation of projects. These problems can be avoided or contained by using identification methods, analysis and control of risks. These procedures can give an overview of the possible problems that can happen in the projects and what are the immediate solutions. Therefore, we propose a risk management method applied to the teaching and development of industrial supervision software. The method is developed through a literature review and previous projects can be divided into phases of management and have basic features that are validated with experimental research carried out by mechatronics engineering students and professionals. The management is conducted through the stages of identification, analysis, planning, monitoring, control and communication of risks. Programmers use a method of prioritizing risks considering the gravity and the possibility of occurrence of the risk. The outputs of the method indicate which risks occurred or are about to happen. The first results indicate which risks occur at different stages of the project and what risks have a high probability of occurring. The results show the efficiency of the proposed method compared to other methods, showing the improvement of software quality and leading developers in their decisions. This new way of developing supervision software helps students identify design problems, evaluate software developed and propose effective solutions. We conclude that the risk management optimizes the development of the industrial process control software and provides higher quality to the product.

Keywords: supervision software, risk management, industrial supervision, project management

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Authors: Souhir Chelly, Asma Ben Cheikh, Hela Ghali, Salwa Khefacha, Lamine Dhidah, Mohamed Ben Rejeb, Houyem Said Latiri

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The hospital risk management department is firstly involved in the methodological analysis of grade zero sterilization incidents. The system is based on a subsequent analysis process in compliance with the ongoing requirements of the Haute Autorité de santé (HAS) for a reactive approach to risk, allowing to identify failures and start the appropriate preventive and corrective measures. The use of the association of litigation and risk management (ALARM) method makes easier the grade zero analysis and brings to light the team or institutional, organizational, temporal, individual factors representative of undesirable effects. Two main factors come out again from this analysis, pre-disinfection step of the emergency block unsupervised instrumentalist intern was poorly done since she did not remove the battery from micro air motor. At the sterilization unit, the worker who was not supervised by the nurse did the conditioning of the motor without having checked it if it still contained the battery. The main cause is that the management of human resources was inadequate at both levels, the instrumental trainee in the block who was not supervised by his supervisor and the worker of the sterilization unit who was not supervised by the responsible nurse. There is a lack of research help, advice, and collaboration. The difficulties encountered during this type of analysis are multiple. The first is based on its necessary acceptance by the various actors of care involved, which should not perceive it as a tool leading to individual punishment, but rather as a means to improve their practices.

Keywords: ALARM (Association of Litigation and Risk Management Method), incident, risk management, sterilization

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Authors: Thomas Y. S. Lee

Abstract:

An insurer offers cyber insurance coverage to several firms with risk-averse decision-makers. The cyber insurance premium offered depends on the cyber security implemented at the firm. Each firm faces attacks by multiple types of hackers and decides on the level of investment for cyber security countermeasures. We address the software monoculture issue by considering that there is common, popular software used by all firms, and it is a source of correlated risk. Two types of cyber security interdependence breaching processes due to the software monoculture risk were analyzed. We derive the probability distribution for the number of breaches and develop the cyber insurance pricing model. We also introduce the concept of cyber security defense level. Furthermore, we proposed to determine the optimal cyber insurance price given a targeted defense level. Finally, we demonstrate the use of our model through several numerical examples.

Keywords: cyber insurance, hacker, breaching probability, cyber security, correlated risks, software monoculture risk, defense level, integrated risk management.

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Authors: Ezri Coda, Kris Justine Miparanum, Relvin Jay Sale

Abstract:

The study dealt on suicide risk level of college students in UM Tagum College. The primary goal of the study was to assess the level of suicide risk among students at the UM Tagum College in terms of perceived burdensomeness, low belongingness/social alienation and acquired ability to enact lethal self-injury utilizing quantitative non- experimental study with 380 students in UM Tagum College as respondents of the study. Mean was the statistical tools used for the data treatment. Moreover, the study aims to determine the mean of the level of the suicide risk assessment in terms of program, type of student, age, year level, civil status and gender, and lastly, to design an intervention program for those identified students with high suicide risk. Results showed a low level of suicide risk in terms of perceived burdensomeness, low belongingness/social alienation and acquired ability to enact lethal self-injury.

Keywords: suicide risk, perceived burdensomeness, low belongingness/social alienation, acquired ability to enact lethal self-injury, UM Tagum College, Philippines

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Omar Moafaq Saleh Aljanabi, Noradiva Hamzah, Ruhanita Maelah

Abstract:

In today’s challenging global economy, which is driven by information and knowledge, risk management is undergoing a great change, as organizations shift from traditional and compartmental risk management to an enterprise-wide approach. Enterprise risk management (ERM), which aims at increasing the sustainability of an organization and achieving competitive advantage, is gaining global attention and fast becoming an essential concern in all industries. Furthermore, in order to be effective, ERM should be managed by managers with high-level skills and knowledge. Despite the importance of the knowledge embedded in, there remains a paucity of evidence concerning how human capital could influence the organization’s ERM. Responses from 116 public listed companies (PLCs) on the main market of Bursa Malaysia were analyzed using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). This study found that there is a significant association between ERM and organizational performance. The results also indicate that human capital has a positive moderating effect on the relationship between ERM and performance. The study contributes to the ERM literature by providing empirical evidence on the relationship between ERM, human capital, and organizational performance. Findings from this study also provide guidelines for managers, policy makers, and the regulatory bodies, to evaluate the ERM practices in PLCs.

Keywords: enterprise risk management, human capital, organizational performance, Malaysian public listed companies

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Authors: Olor Obi, Ishiekwen Bridget, Ekpeyong Edom

Abstract:

Even though gout is becoming more common, the role of dietary risk factors in the development and management of this condition remains unclear. Therefore, this review work will aim at clarifying the role of dietary factors in the risk and management of gout. An extensive search of literature published between 1960 and 2018 will be performed on the databases of PubMed, CINAHL, Science Direct, Cochrane, BMJ, Ann Rheum Dis, and BioMed to identify relevant cohort, prospective, population-based, or cross-sectional studies that examined the effect of diet on gout. About 19 studies will be included in this review work. The methodological quality of these studies will be evaluated using the quality assessment tool for observational and cross-sectional studies developed by the National Heart, Lungs, and Blood Institute. This work intends to reveal that a positive association exists between the intake of sugary, sweetened beverages and the risk of gout. It will also reveal the relationship between the increase in coffee consumption and the risk of gout.

Keywords: gout, dietary factors, management of gout, gouty arthritis

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Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

Abstract:

The article demonstrates on a case study how it is possible to identify MSD risk. It is based on a dissertation risk identification model of occupational diseases formation in relation to the work activity that determines what risk can endanger workers who are exposed to the specific risk factors. It is evaluated based on statistical calculations. These risk factors are main cause of upper-extremities musculoskeletal disorders.

Keywords: case study, upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders, ergonomics, risk identification

Procedia PDF Downloads 468