Search results for: probability approach

Authors: Thapa Sirjana, Clifton R. Emery

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This paper examines the family order and Informal Social Control (ISC) by the extended families as a protective factor against Child Maltreatment. The findings are discussed using the main effects and the interaction effects of family order and informal social control by the extended families. The findings suggest that IPV mothers are associated with child abuse and child neglect. The children are neglected in the home more and physical abuse occurs in the case, if mothers are abused by their husbands. The mother’s difficulties of being abused may lead them to neglect their children. The findings suggest that ‘family order’ is a significant protective factor against child maltreatment. The results suggest that if the family order is neither too high nor too low than that can play a role as a protective factor. Soft type of ISC is significantly associated with child maltreatment. This study suggests that the soft type of ISC by the extended families is a helpful approach to develop child protection in both the countries. This study is analyzed the data collected from Seoul and Kathmandu families and neighborhood study (SKFNS). Random probability cluster sample of married or partnered women in 20 Kathmandu wards and in Seoul 34 dongs were selected using probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling. Overall, the study is to make a comparative study of Korea and Nepal and examine how the cultural differences and similarities associate with the child maltreatment.

Keywords: child maltreatment, intimate partner violence, informal social control and family order Seoul, Kathmandu

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Authors: M. Marsadek, A. Mohamed

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Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed.  In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time.  To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor.  The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.

Keywords: line overload, low voltage, probability, risk factor, severity

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Authors: Jia-Lien Hsu, Chiung-Wen Chang

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Research articles may follow a simple and succinct structure of organizational patterns, called move. For example, considering extended abstracts, we observe that an extended abstract usually consists of five moves, including Background, Aim, Method, Results, and Conclusion. As another example, when publishing articles in PubMed, authors are encouraged to provide a structured abstract, which is an abstract with distinct and labeled sections (e.g., Introduction, Methods, Results, Discussions) for rapid comprehension. This paper introduces a method for computational analysis of move structures (i.e., Background-Purpose-Method-Result-Conclusion) in abstracts and introductions of research documents, instead of manually time-consuming and labor-intensive analysis process. In our approach, sentences in a given abstract and introduction are automatically analyzed and labeled with a specific move (i.e., B-P-M-R-C in this paper) to reveal various rhetorical status. As a result, it is expected that the automatic analytical tool for move structures will facilitate non-native speakers or novice writers to be aware of appropriate move structures and internalize relevant knowledge to improve their writing. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to determine move tags for research articles. The approach consists of two phases, training phase and testing phase. In the training phase, we build a Bayesian model based on a couple of given initial patterns and the corpus, a subset of CiteSeerX. In the beginning, the priori probability of Bayesian model solely relies on initial patterns. Subsequently, with respect to the corpus, we process each document one by one: extract features, determine tags, and update the Bayesian model iteratively. In the testing phase, we compare our results with tags which are manually assigned by the experts. In our experiments, the promising accuracy of the proposed approach reaches 56%.

Keywords: academic English writing, assisted writing, move tag analysis, Bayesian approach

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Authors: Nattabhorn Leamcharaskul

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This study aims to examine determining factors of the dynamics of poverty in Thailand by using panel data of 3,567 households in 2007-2017. Four techniques of estimation are employed to analyze the situation of poverty across households and time periods: the multinomial logit model, the sequential logit model, the quantile regression model, and the difference in difference model. Households are categorized based on their experiences into 5 groups, namely chronically poor, falling into poverty, re-entering into poverty, exiting from poverty and never poor households. Estimation results emphasize the effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors as well as unexpected events on the economic status of a household. It is found that remittances have positive impact on household’s economic status in that they are likely to lower the probability of falling into poverty or trapping in poverty while they tend to increase the probability of exiting from poverty. In addition, not only receiving a secondary source of household income can raise the probability of being a never poor household, but it also significantly increases household income per capita of the chronically poor and falling into poverty households. Public work programs are recommended as an important tool to relieve household financial burden and uncertainty and thus consequently increase a chance for households to escape from poverty.

Keywords: difference in difference, dynamic, multinomial logit model, panel data, poverty, quantile regression, remittance, sequential logit model, Thailand, transfer

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Authors: Peristera Baziana

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In this paper, we present a network configuration for a WDM LANs of passive star topology that assume that the set of data WDM channels is split into two separate sets of channels, with different access rights over them. Especially, a synchronous transmission WDMA access algorithm is adopted in order to increase the probability of successful transmission over the data channels and consequently to reduce the probability of data packets transmission cancellation in order to avoid the data channels collisions. Thus, a control pre-transmission access scheme is followed over a separate control channel. An analytical Markovian model is studied and the average throughput is mathematically derived. The performance is studied for several numbers of data channels and various values of control phase duration.

Keywords: access algorithm, channels division, collisions avoidance, wavelength division multiplexing

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Authors: Gabriel Calvo, Carmen Armero, Luigi Spezia

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A basketball player is said to have a hot hand if his/her performance is better than expected in different periods of time. A way to deal with this phenomenon is to make use of latent variables, which can indicate whether the player is ‘on fire’ or not. This work aims to model the hot hand phenomenon through a Bayesian hidden Markov model (HMM) with two states (cold and hot) and two different probability of success depending on the corresponding hidden state. This task is illustrated through a comprehensive simulation study. The simulated data sets emulate the field goal attempts in an NBA season from different profile players. This model can be a powerful tool to assess the ‘streakiness’ of each player, and it provides information about the general performance of the players during the match. Finally, the Bayesian HMM allows computing the posterior probability of any type of streak.

Keywords: Bernoulli trials, field goals, latent variables, posterior distribution

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Authors: A. L. Agarwal, D. A. Mahajan

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Construction industry tumbled along with other industry/sectors during recent economic crash. Construction business could not regain thereafter and still pass through slowdown phase, resulted many real estate as well as infrastructure projects not completed on schedule and within budget. There are many theories, tools, techniques with software packages available in the market to analyze construction schedule. This study focuses on the construction project schedule and uncertainties associated with construction activities. The infrastructure construction project has been considered for the analysis of uncertainty on project activities affecting project duration and analysis is done using @RISK software. Different simulation results arising from three probability distribution functions are compiled to benefit construction project managers to plan more realistic schedule of various construction activities as well as project completion to document in the contract and avoid compensations or claims arising out of missing the planned schedule.

Keywords: construction project, distributions, project schedule, uncertainty

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Authors: Majid Samiee Zonoozian

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For such important constructions as jacket type platforms, scrupulous attention in analysis, design and calculation processes is needed. The reliability assessment method has been established into an extensively used method to behavior safety calculation of jacket platforms. In the present study, a methodology for the reliability calculation of an offshore jacket platform in contradiction of the extreme wave loading state is available. Therefore, sensitivity analyses are applied to acquire the nonlinear response of jacket-type platforms against extreme waves. The jacket structure is modeled by applying a nonlinear finite-element model with regards to the tubular members' behave. The probability of a member’s failure under extreme wave loading is figured by a finite-element reliability code. The FORM and SORM approaches are applied for the calculation of safety directories and reliability indexes have been detected. A case study for a fixed jacket-type structure positioned in the Persian Gulf is studied by means of the planned method. Furthermore, to define the failure standards, equations suggested by the 21st version of the API RP 2A-WSD for The jacket-type structures’ tubular members designing by applying the mixed axial bending and axial pressure. Consequently, the effect of wave Loades in the reliability index was considered.

Keywords: Jacket-Type structure, reliability, failure probability, tubular members

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Authors: Dolly Kumari, H. Lhungdim

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Maternal health is one of the crucial health indicators for any country. 5th goal of Millennium Development Goals is also emphasising on improvement of maternal health. Soon after Independence government of India realizing the importance of maternal and child health care services, and took steps to strengthen in 1st and 2nd five year plans. In past decade the other health indicator which is life expectancy at birth has been observed remarkable improvement. But still maternal mortality is high in India and in some states it is observe much higher than national average. Government of India pour lots of fund and initiate National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) in 2005 to improve maternal health in country by providing affordable and accessible health care services. Accredited Social Heath Activist (ASHA) is one of the key components of the NRHM. Mainly ASHAs are selected female aged 25-45 years from village itself and accountable for the monitoring of maternal health care for the same village. ASHA are trained to works as an interface between the community and public health system. This study tries to assess the role of ASHA in utilizing maternal health care services and to see the level of awareness about benefits given under JSY scheme and utilization of those benefits by eligible women. For the study concurrent evaluation data from National Rural health Mission (NRHM), initiated by government of India in 2005 has been used. This study is based on 78205 currently married women from 70 different districts of India. Descriptive statistics, chi2 test and binary logistic regression have been used for analysis. The probability of institutional delivery increases by 2.03 times (p<0.001) while if ASHA arranged or helped in arranging transport facility the probability of institutional delivery is increased by 1.67 times (p<0.01) than if she is not arranging transport facility. Further if ASHA facilitated to get JSY card to the pregnant women probability of going for full ANC is increases by 1.36 times (p<0.05) than reference. However if ASHA discuses about institutional delivery and approaches to get register than probability of getting TT injection is 1.88 and 1.64 times (p<0.01) higher than that if she did not discus. Further, Probability of benefits from JSY schemes is 1.25 times (p<0.001) higher among women who get married after 18 years. The probability of benefits from JSY schemes is 1.25 times (p<0.001) higher among women who get married after 18 year of age than before 18 years, it is also 1.28 times (p<0.001) and 1.32 times (p<0.001) higher among women have 1 to 8 year of schooling and with 9 and above years of schooling respectively than the women who never attended school. Those women who are working have 1.13 times (p<0.001) higher probability of getting benefits from JSY scheme than not working women. Surprisingly women belongs to wealthiest quintile are .53times (P<0.001) less aware about JSY scheme. Results conclude that work done by ASHA has great influence on maternal health care utilization in India. But results also show that still substantial numbers of needed population are far from utilization of these services. Place of delivery is significantly influenced by referral and transport facility arranged by ASHA.

Keywords: institutional delivery, JSY beneficiaries, referral faculty, public health

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Authors: Rashmi Gupta

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Rewarding stimuli capture attention involuntarily as a result of an association process that develops quickly during value learning, referred to as the reward or value-driven attentional capture. It is essential to compare reward with punishment processing to get a full picture of value-based modulation in visual attention processing. Hence, the present study manipulated both valence/value (reward as well as punishment) and motivational salience (probability of an outcome: high vs. low) together. Series of experiments were conducted, and there were two phases in each experiment. In phase 1, participants were required to learn to associate specific face stimuli with a high or low probability of winning or losing points. In the second phase, these conditioned stimuli then served as a distractor or prime in a speeded letter search task. Faces with high versus low outcome probability, regardless of valence, slowed the search for targets (specifically the left visual field target) and suggesting that the costs to performance on non-emotional cognitive tasks were only driven by motivational salience (high vs. loss) associated with the stimuli rather than the valence (gain vs. loss). It also suggests that the processing of motivationally salient stimuli is right-hemisphere biased. Together, results of these studies strengthen the notion that our visual attention system is more sensitive to affected by motivational saliency rather than valence, which termed here as motivational-driven attentional capture.

Keywords: attention, distractors, motivational salience, valence

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Authors: Patarapan Odton

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This study investigates demographic and socio-economic factors of breastfeeding practice, including exclusively breastfeeding among children in Thailand using the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS3 and MICS4). Logistic regression models were used to examine the determinants of initial breastfeeding, exclusively breastfeeding, and predominant breastfeeding, using data from women and children section of the survey. For initial breastfeeding, women live in rural area were more likely to start breastfeeding within one day of birth rather than who live in urban area in both round of the surveys. In year 2012, there were significantly higher probabilities of women in rural area started breastfeeding within one hour of birth compare to urban area. Women in southern Thailand have higher probabilities of start breastfeeding within one hour and one day than women in Bangkok and central region. During the year 2005-2006, children aged less than 5 years old lived in rural area have been breastfed higher than children in urban area. Children live in the northeast region were more likely to have been breastfed than the other regions. Only the second wealth quintile group was significant higher probability of ever been breastfed than the poorest group. The findings in the second round of the survey are different from the year 2005-06. In 2012, there was no difference in probability of ever been breastfed among children live in urban and rural area, children in Bangkok and central region were less probability of ever been breastfed than the others.

Keywords: Breastfeeding, Exclusive Breastfeeding, Predominant Breastfeeding, Urban-Rural Difference

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Authors: Kreso Ivandic, Filip Dodigovic, Damir Stuhec

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The paper deals with the proposed 'Material' and 'Action-resistance factor' design methods in designing the embedded retaining walls. The parametric analysis of evaluating the differences of the output values mutually and compared with classic approach computation was performed. There is a challenge with the criteria for choosing the proposed calculation design methods in Eurocode 7 with respect to current technical regulations and regular engineering practice. The basic criterion for applying a particular design method is to ensure minimum an equal degree of reliability in relation to the current practice. The procedure of combining the relevant partial coefficients according to design methods was carried out. The use of mentioned partial coefficients should result in the same level of safety, regardless of load combinations, material characteristics and problem geometry. This proposed approach of the partial coefficients related to the material and/or action-resistance should aimed at building a bridge between calculations used so far and pure probability analysis. The measure to compare the results was to determine an equivalent safety factor for each analysis. The results show a visible wide span of equivalent values of the classic safety factors.

Keywords: action-resistance factor design, classic approach, embedded retaining wall, Eurocode 7, limit states, material factor design

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Authors: Ravinder Bahl, Jamini Sharma

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The paper demonstrates analysis of the cervical cancer based on a probabilistic model. It involves technique for classification and prediction by recognizing typical and diagnostically most important test features relating to cervical cancer. The main contributions of the research include predicting the probability of recurrences in no recurrence (first time detection) cases. The combination of the conventional statistical and machine learning tools is applied for the analysis. Experimental study with real data demonstrates the feasibility and potential of the proposed approach for the said cause.

Keywords: cervical cancer, recurrence, no recurrence, probabilistic, classification, prediction, machine learning

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Authors: Fuchun Li, Hong Xiao

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We propose a new early warning model for predicting financial stress events for a given future time. In this model, we examine whether credit conditions play an important role as a nonlinear propagator of shocks when predicting the likelihood of occurrence of financial stress events for a given future time. This propagation takes the form of a threshold regression in which a regime change occurs if credit conditions cross a critical threshold. Given the new early warning model for financial stress events, we evaluate the performance of this model and currently available alternatives, such as the model from signal extraction approach, and linear regression model. In-sample forecasting results indicate that the three types of models are useful tools for predicting financial stress events while none of them outperforms others across all criteria considered. The out-of-sample forecasting results suggest that the credit-regime switching model performs better than the two others across all criteria and all forecasting horizons considered.

Keywords: cut-off probability, early warning model, financial crisis, financial stress, regime-switching model, forecasting horizons

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Authors: Anna Siuda-Bak

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This paper adopts a comparative approach to examining the determinants of international mobility of German, Italian and British researchers who completed their doctoral education in the UK. Structured sampling and data collection techniques have been developed in order to retrieve information on participants from publicly available sources. This systematically collected data was supplemented with an on-line survey which captures participants’ job trajectories, including movements between positions, institutions and countries. In total, data on 949 German, Italian and British PhDs was collected. Logistic regression was employed to identify factors associated with one’s probability of moving outside the UK after his or her graduation. The predictor variables included factors associated with one’s PhD (field of study, ranking of the university which awarded the PhD degree) and family factors (having a child, nationality of the partner). Then, 9 constrained models were estimated to test the effect each variable has on probability of going to a specific destination, being English-speaking country, non-English speaking country or returning to the home country. The results show that females, arts and humanities graduates, and respondents with a partner from the UK are less mobile than their counterparts. The effect of the ranking of the university differed in two groups. The UK graduates from higher ranked universities were more likely to move abroad than to stay in the UK after their graduation. In contrast, non-UK natives from the same universities were less likely to be internationally mobile than non-UK natives from lower ranked universities. The nationality of the partner was the most important predictor of the specific destination choices. Graduates with partner from the home county were more likely to return home and those with a partner from the third country least likely to return.

Keywords: doctoral graduates, international mobility, nationality, UK

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Authors: Mathinee Khongsatid, Phusit Phukamchanoad, Sakapas Saengchai

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This research aims to study the democratic political socialization of the 5th and 6th Graders under the Authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok by using stratified sampling for probability sampling and using purposive sampling for non-probability sampling to collect data toward the distribution of questionnaires to 300 respondents. This covers all of the schools under the authority of Dusit District Office. The researcher analyzed the data by using descriptive statistics which include arithmetic mean and standard deviation. The result shows that 5th and 6th graders under the authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok, have displayed some characteristics following democratic political socialization both inside and outside classroom as well as outside school. However, the democratic political socialization in classroom through grouping and class participation is much more emphasized.

Keywords: democratic, political socialization, students grades 5-6, descriptive statistics

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi, Aref Ghafouri

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Performance of different filtering approaches depends on modeling of dynamical system and algorithm structure. For modeling and smoothing the data the evaluation of posterior distribution in different filtering approach should be chosen carefully. In this paper different filtering approaches like filter KALMAN, EKF, UKF, EKS and smoother RTS is simulated in some trajectory tracking of path and accuracy and limitation of these approaches are explained. Then probability of model with different filters is compered and finally the effect of the noise variance to estimation is described with simulations results.

Keywords: Gaussian approximation, Kalman smoother, parameter estimation, noise variance

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Authors: Debasis Sarkar

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Clean development mechanism (CDM) can act as an effective instrument for mitigating climate change. This mechanism can effectively reduce the emission of CO2 and other green house gases (GHG). Construction of a mega infrastructure project like underground corridor construction for metro rail operation involves in consumption of substantial quantity of concrete which consumes huge quantity of energy consuming materials like cement and steel. This paper is an attempt to develop an integrated clean development mechanism and risk management approach for sustainable development for an underground corridor metro rail project in India during its construction phase. It was observed that about 35% reduction in CO2 emission can be obtained by adding fly ash as a part replacement of cement. The reduced emission quantity of CO2 which is of the quantum of about 21,646.36 MT would result in cost savings of approximately INR 8.5 million (USD 1,29,878).But construction and operation of such infrastructure projects of the present era are subject to huge risks and uncertainties throughout all the phases of the project, thus reducing the probability of successful completion of the project within stipulated time and cost frame. Thus, an integrated approach of combining CDM with risk management would enable the metro rail authorities to develop a sustainable risk mitigation measure framework to ensure more cost and energy savings and lesser time and cost over-run.

Keywords: clean development mechanism (CDM), infrastructure transportation, project risk management, underground metro rail

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Authors: Ons Triki, Fathi Abid

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Along with the increase in the use of leasing contracts in corporate finance, multiple studies aim to model the credit risk of the lease in order to cover the losses of the lessor of the asset if the lessee goes bankrupt. In the current research paper, a convertible lease contract is elaborated in a continuous time stochastic universe aiming to ensure the financial stability of the firm and quickly recover the losses of the counterparties to the lease in case of default. This work examines the term structure of the lease rates taking into account the credit default risk and the capital structure of the firm. The interaction between the lessee's capital structure and the equilibrium lease rate has been assessed by applying the competitive lease market argument developed by Grenadier (1996) and the endogenous structural default model set forward by Leland and Toft (1996). The cumulative probability of default was calculated by referring to Leland and Toft (1996) and Yildirim and Huan (2006). Additionally, the link between lessee credit risk and lease rate was addressed so as to explore the impact of convertible lease financing on the term structure of the lease rate, the optimal leverage ratio, the cumulative default probability, and the optimal firm value by applying an endogenous conversion threshold. The numerical analysis is suggestive that the duration structure of lease rates increases with the increase in the degree of the market price of risk. The maximal value of the firm decreases with the effect of the optimal leverage ratio. The results are indicative that the cumulative probability of default increases with the maturity of the lease contract if the volatility of the asset service flows is significant. Introducing the convertible lease contract will increase the optimal value of the firm as a function of asset volatility for a high initial service flow level and a conversion ratio close to 1.

Keywords: convertible lease contract, lease rate, credit-risk, capital structure, default probability

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Authors: Mahesh Balan U, Rohith Srinivaas Mohanakrishnan, Venkat Subramanian

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Positive and unlabeled learning (PU) has gained more attention in both academic and industry research literature recently because of its relevance to existing business problems today. Yet, there still seems to be some existing challenges in terms of validating the performance of PU learning, as the actual truth of unlabeled data points is still unknown in contrast to a binary classification where we know the truth. In this study, we propose a novel PU learning technique based on the Pseudo-F measure, where we address this research gap. In this approach, we train the PU model to discriminate the probability distribution of the positive and unlabeled in the validation and spy data. The predicted probabilities of the PU model have a two-fold validation – (a) the predicted probabilities of reliable positives and predicted positives should be from the same distribution; (b) the predicted probabilities of predicted positives and predicted unlabeled should be from a different distribution. We experimented with this approach on a credit marketing case study in one of the world’s biggest fintech platforms and found evidence for benchmarking performance and backtested using historical data. This study contributes to the existing literature on semi-supervised learning.

Keywords: PU learning, semi-supervised learning, pseudo f measure, classification

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Authors: Ansoné Human, Nantes Kirsten, Tanja Verster, Willem D. Schutte

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Every year the telecommunications industry suffers huge losses due to fraud. Mobile fraud, or generally, telecommunications fraud is the utilisation of telecommunication products or services to acquire money illegally from or failing to pay a telecommunication company. A South African telecommunication operator developed two internal fraud scorecards to mitigate future risks of application fraud events. The scorecards aim to predict the likelihood of an application being fraudulent and surprise fraudsters before they surprise the telecommunication operator by identifying fraud at the time of application. The scorecards are utilised in the vetting process to evaluate the applicant in terms of the fraud risk the applicant would present to the telecommunication operator. Telecommunication providers can utilise these scorecards to profile customers, as well as isolate fraudulent and/or high-risk applicants. We provide the complete methodology utilised in the development of the scorecards. Furthermore, a Determination and Discrimination (DD) ratio is provided in the methodology to select the most influential variables from a group of related variables. Throughout the development of these scorecards, the following was revealed regarding fraudulent cases and fraudster behaviour within the telecommunications industry: Fraudsters typically target high-value handsets. Furthermore, debit order dates scheduled for the end of the month have the highest fraud probability. The fraudsters target specific stores. Applicants who acquire an expensive package and receive a medium-income, as well as applicants who obtain an expensive package and receive a high income, have higher fraud percentages. If one month prior to application, the status of an account is already in arrears (two months or more), the applicant has a high probability of fraud. The applicants with the highest average spend on calls have a higher probability of fraud. If the amount collected changes from month to month, the likelihood of fraud is higher. Lastly, young and middle-aged applicants have an increased probability of being targeted by fraudsters than other ages.

Keywords: application fraud scorecard, predictive modeling, regression, telecommunications

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Authors: Z. N. Salim, R. T. Lebese, M. S. Maputle

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Background: The international community has been concerned about population growth for more than a century. Teenagers in sub-Saharan Africa continue to be at high risk of HIV infection, and this is exacerbated by poverty, whereby many teenagers in Africa come from disadvantaged families/background, which leads them to engage in sexual activities at an early age for survival hence leading to increased rate of teenage pregnancy. Purpose: The study sought to explore, describe and to identify the factors that lead to teenage pregnancy in the selected villages in Mopani District. Design: The study was conducted using a qualitative, explorative, descriptive and contextual approach. A non-probability purposive sampling approach was used. Researcher collected the data with the assistance of research assistant. Participants were interviewed and information was captured on a tape recorder and analysed using open coding and thereafter collected into main themes, themes and sub-themes. The researcher conducted four focus groups, Participants aged between 10-19 years of age. Results: The finding of the study revealed that there are several factors that is contributing to teenagers falling pregnant. Personal, intuitional, and cultural were identified to be the factors leading to teenage pregnancy.

Keywords: factors, leading, pregnancy, teenage

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Zina Benouaret, Djamil A¨ıssani

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In this paper, we study the performance of the strong stability method of the univariate classical risk model. We interest to the stability bounds established using two approaches. The first based on the strong stability method developed for a general Markov chains. The second approach based on the regenerative processes theory . By adopting an algorithmic procedure, we study the performance of the stability method in the case of exponential distribution claim amounts. After presenting numerically and graphically the stability bounds, an interpretation and comparison of the results have been done.

Keywords: Marcov chain, regenerative process, risk model, ruin probability, strong stability

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Authors: A. G. Temnikov, O. S. Belova, L. L. Chernensky, T. K. Gerastenok, N. Y. Lysov, A. V. Orlov, D. S. Zhuravkova

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Hypothesis of the lightning initiation on the arrays of large hydrometeors are in the consideration. There is no agreement about the form the hydrometeors that could be the best for the lightning initiation from the thundercloud. Artificial charged water aerosol clouds of the positive or negative polarity could help investigate the possible influence of the hydrometeor form on the peculiarities and the probability of the lightning discharge initiation between the thundercloud and the ground. Artificial charged aerosol clouds that could create the electric field strength in the range of 5-6 kV/cm to 16-18 kV/cm have been used in experiments. The array of the model hydrometeors of the volume and plate form has been disposed near the bottom cloud boundary. It was established that the different kinds of the discharge could be initiated in the presence of the model hydrometeors array – from the cloud discharges up to the diffuse and channel discharges between the charged cloud and the ground. It was found that the form of the model hydrometeors could significantly influence the channel discharge initiation from the artificial charged aerosol cloud of the negative or positive polarity correspondingly. Analysis and generalization of the experimental results have shown that the maximal probability of the channel discharge initiation and propagation stimulation has been observed for the artificial charged cloud of the positive polarity when the arrays of the model hydrometeors of the cylinder revolution form have been used. At the same time, for the artificial charged clouds of the negative polarity, application of the model hydrometeor array of the plate rhombus form has provided the maximal probability of the channel discharge formation between the charged cloud and the ground. The established influence of the form of the model hydrometeors on the channel discharge initiation and from the artificial charged water aerosol cloud and its following successful propagation has been related with the different character of the positive and negative streamer and volume leader development on the model hydrometeors array being near the bottom boundary of the charged cloud. The received experimental results have shown the possibly important role of the form of the large hail particles precipitated in thundercloud on the discharge initiation.

Keywords: cloud and channel discharges, hydrometeor form, lightning initiation, negative and positive artificial charged aerosol cloud

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Authors: Ghania Zerari, Abderrezak Guessoum, Rachid Beguenane

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This paper introduces high-performance architecture for fully parallel stochastic Low-Density Parity-Check (LDPC) field programmable gate array (FPGA) based LDPC decoder. The new approach is designed to decrease the decoding latency and to reduce the FPGA logic utilisation. To accomplish the target logic utilisation reduction, the routing of the proposed sub-variable node (VN) internal memory is designed to utilize one slice distributed RAM. Furthermore, a VN initialization, using the channel input probability, is achieved to enhance the decoder convergence, without extra resources and without integrating the output saturated-counters. The Xilinx FPGA implementation, of IEEE 802.3an standard LDPC code, shows that the proposed decoding approach attain high performance along with reduction of FPGA logic utilisation.

Keywords: low-density parity-check (LDPC) decoder, stochastic decoding, field programmable gate array (FPGA), IEEE 802.3an standard

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Authors: Denys Osipenko, Jonathan Crook

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Because of the variety of the card holders’ behaviour types and income sources each consumer account can be transferred to a variety of states. Each consumer account can be inactive, transactor, revolver, delinquent, defaulted and requires an individual model for the income prediction. The estimation of transition probabilities between statuses at the account level helps to avoid the memorylessness of the Markov Chains approach. This paper investigates the transition probabilities estimation approaches to credit cards income prediction at the account level. The key question of empirical research is which approach gives more accurate results: multinomial logistic regression or multistage conditional logistic regression with binary target. Both models have shown moderate predictive power. Prediction accuracy for conditional logistic regression depends on the order of stages for the conditional binary logistic regression. On the other hand, multinomial logistic regression is easier for usage and gives integrate estimations for all states without priorities. Thus further investigations can be concentrated on alternative modeling approaches such as discrete choice models.

Keywords: multinomial regression, conditional logistic regression, credit account state, transition probability

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Authors: Taufik Hidayat, Yudha Nurhantari, Bambang U. D. Rianto

Abstract:

Introduction: The examination of the Short Tandem Repeats (STR) locus on nuclear DNA is very useful in solving the paternity cases. The purpose of this study is to know the description of paternity cases and paternity index/probability of paternity analysis based on Indonesian allele frequency at Sardjito Hospital Yogyakarta. Method: This was an observational study with cross-sectional analytic method. Population and sample were all cases of disputed paternity from January 2011 to June 2015 that fulfill the inclusion and exclusion criteria and were examined at Forensic Medicine Unit of Sardjito Hospital, Medical Faculty of Gadjah Mada University. The paternity index was calculated with EasyDNA Program by Fung (2013). Analysis of the study was conducted by comparing the results through unpaired categorical test using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. This study was designed with 95% confidence interval (CI) with α = 5% and significance level is p < 0,05. Results: From 42 disputed paternity cases we obtained trio paternity cases were 32 cases (76.2%) and duo without a mother was 10 cases (23.8%). The majority of the fathers' estimated ages were 21-30 years (33.3%) and the mother's age was 31-40 years (38.1%). The majority of the ages of children examined for paternity were under 12 months (47.6%). The majority of ethnic clients are Javanese. Conclusion of inclusion was 57.1%, and exclusion was 42.9%. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test obtained p-value = 0.673. Conclusion: There is no significant difference between paternity index/probability of paternity based on Indonesian allele frequency between trio and duo of paternity.

Keywords: disputed paternity, paternity index, probability of paternity, short tandem

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: B. Ramakrishna, S. Sivamurthy Reddy

Abstract:

The various types of aggregates such as granite, dolerite, Quartzite, dolomitic limestone, limestone and river gravel were used to produce the concrete with 28-day target compressive strength of 35, 60, and 80 Mpa. The compressive strength of concrete, as well as aggregates, was measured to study the effect of rupture probability of aggregate on the fracture surface of the concrete. Also, the petrographic studies were carried out to study the texture, type of minerals present and their relative proportions in various types of aggregates. The concrete of various grades produced with the same aggregate has shown a rise in RPCA with strength. However, the above relationship has ceased to exist in the concretes of the same grade, made of different types of aggregates. The carbonate aggregates namely Limestone and Dolomitic limestone have produced concrete with higher RPCA irrespective of the strength of concrete. The mode of origin, texture and mineralogical composition of aggregates have a significant impact on their pulse velocity and thereby the pulse velocity of concrete.

Keywords: RPCA, DL, G, LS, RG

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: Arafat Husain

Abstract:

The lubricants are one of the most used resource in today’s world. Lot of the superpowers are dependent on the lubricant resource for their country to function. To see that the lubricants are not adulterated we need to develop some efficient ways and to see which fluid has been added to the lubricant. So to observe the these malpractices in the lubricant we need to develop a method. We take a elastic ball and through it at probability circle in the submerged in the lubricant at a fixed force and see the distance of pitching and the point of fall. Then we the ratio of distance of falling to the distance of pitching and if the measured ratio is greater than one the fluid is less viscous and if the ratio is lesser than the lubricant is viscous. We will check the falling point of pure lubricant at fixed force and every pure lubricant would have a fixed falling point. After that we would adulterate the lubricant and note the falling point and if the falling point is less than the standard value then adulterate is solid and if the adulterate is liquid the falling point will be more than the standard value. Hence the comparison with the standard falling point will give the efficiency of the lubricant.

Keywords: falling point of lubricant, falling point ratios, probability circle, octane number

Procedia PDF Downloads 464

Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

Abstract:

Model updating method has received increasing attention in damage detection structures based on measured modal parameters. Therefore, a probability-based damage detection (PBDD) procedure based on a model updating procedure is presented in this paper, in which a one-stage model-based damage identification technique based on the dynamic features of a structure is investigated. The presented framework uses a finite element updating method with a Monte Carlo simulation that considers the uncertainty caused by measurement noise. Enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) is used as the main algorithm for model updating. Ideal gas molecular movement (IGMM) is a multiagent algorithm based on the ideal gas molecular movement. Ideal gas molecules disperse rapidly in different directions and cover all the space inside. This is embedded in the high speed of molecules, collisions between them and with the surrounding barriers. In IGMM algorithm to accomplish the optimal solutions, the initial population of gas molecules is randomly generated and the governing equations related to the velocity of gas molecules and collisions between those are utilized. In this paper, an enhanced version of IGMM, which removes unchanged variables after specified iterations, is developed. The proposed method is implemented on two numerical examples in the field of structural damage detection. The results show that the proposed method can perform well and competitive in PBDD of structures.

Keywords: enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM), ideal gas molecular movement (IGMM), model updating method, probability-based damage detection (PBDD), uncertainty quantification

Procedia PDF Downloads 247