Search results for: probabilistic constraints
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 1464

Search results for: probabilistic constraints

1224 Intercultural Education through Literature Reception: An in-Depth Study of the Cultural and Literary Relations of Romania and China during 1948-2018

Authors: Iulia Elena Gîță

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According to the sociological theory of literature, constraints on the creation and share of cultural works can be placed between two extremes: one with a high level of politicization and the other with a high level of commercialization. The overall objective of the present research is to follow the principles of Sociology of Translation to closely map and analyse the publishing activity of Romania concerning China and Chinese literature during four stages of Romanian history between 1948-2018. This paper proposes, thus, an extended approach to literature, to its cultural, political and economic reception. In achieving the proposed objectives, the research expands far beyond the literary text itself, to its macro context, analysing, through quantitative research methods, a statistical database created based on two phases - the first part containing literary and non-fictional works that address and discuss issues related to China; the second part includes literary translations of Chinese literature into Romanian, either by direct translation or by an intermediate language. Throughout this paper we will map not only the number of works, but also the topics approached by writers along the two periods of the political life of Romania.

Keywords: bilateral relations, Chinese literature, intercultural understanding, international relations, socio-cultural reception, socio-political constraints, publishing

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1223 Patterns of TV Simultaneous Interpreting of Emotive Overtones in Trump’s Victory Speech from English into Arabic

Authors: Hanan Al-Jabri

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Simultaneous interpreting is deemed to be the most challenging mode of interpreting by many scholars. The special constraints involved in this task including time constraints, different linguistic systems, and stress pose a great challenge to most interpreters. These constraints are likely to maximise when the interpreting task is done live on TV. The TV interpreter is exposed to a wide variety of audiences with different backgrounds and needs and is mostly asked to interpret high profile tasks which raise his/her levels of stress, which further complicate the task. Under these constraints, which require fast and efficient performance, TV interpreters of four TV channels were asked to render Trump's victory speech into Arabic. However, they had also to deal with the burden of rendering English emotive overtones employed by the speaker into a whole different linguistic system. The current study aims at investigating the way TV interpreters, who worked in the simultaneous mode, handled this task; it aims at exploring and evaluating the TV interpreters’ linguistic choices and whether the original emotive effect was maintained, upgraded, downgraded or abandoned in their renditions. It also aims at exploring the possible difficulties and challenges that emerged during this process and might have influenced the interpreters’ linguistic choices. To achieve its aims, the study analysed Trump’s victory speech delivered on November 6, 2016, along with four Arabic simultaneous interpretations produced by four TV channels: Al-Jazeera, RT, CBC News, and France 24. The analysis of the study relied on two frameworks: a macro and a micro framework. The former presents an overview of the wider context of the English speech as well as an overview of the speaker and his political background to help understand the linguistic choices he made in the speech, and the latter framework investigates the linguistic tools which were employed by the speaker to stir people’s emotions. These tools were investigated based on Shamaa’s (1978) classification of emotive meaning according to their linguistic level: phonological, morphological, syntactic, and semantic and lexical levels. Moreover, this level investigates the patterns of rendition which were detected in the Arabic deliveries. The results of the study identified different rendition patterns in the Arabic deliveries, including parallel rendition, approximation, condensation, elaboration, transformation, expansion, generalisation, explicitation, paraphrase, and omission. The emerging patterns, as suggested by the analysis, were influenced by factors such as speedy and continuous delivery of some stretches, and highly-dense segments among other factors. The study aims to contribute to a better understanding of TV simultaneous interpreting between English and Arabic, as well as the practices of TV interpreters when rendering emotiveness especially that little is known about interpreting practices in the field of TV, particularly between Arabic and English.

Keywords: emotive overtones, interpreting strategies, political speeches, TV interpreting

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1222 Cost Overruns in Mega Projects: Project Progress Prediction with Probabilistic Methods

Authors: Yasaman Ashrafi, Stephen Kajewski, Annastiina Silvennoinen, Madhav Nepal

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Mega projects either in construction, urban development or energy sectors are one of the key drivers that build the foundation of wealth and modern civilizations in regions and nations. Such projects require economic justification and substantial capital investment, often derived from individual and corporate investors as well as governments. Cost overruns and time delays in these mega projects demands a new approach to more accurately predict project costs and establish realistic financial plans. The significance of this paper is that the cost efficiency of megaprojects will improve and decrease cost overruns. This research will assist Project Managers (PMs) to make timely and appropriate decisions about both cost and outcomes of ongoing projects. This research, therefore, examines the oil and gas industry where most mega projects apply the classic methods of Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule Performance Index (SPI) and rely on project data to forecast cost and time. Because these projects are always overrun in cost and time even at the early phase of the project, the probabilistic methods of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Bayesian Adaptive Forecasting method were used to predict project cost at completion of projects. The current theoretical and mathematical models which forecast the total expected cost and project completion date, during the execution phase of an ongoing project will be evaluated. Earned Value Management (EVM) method is unable to predict cost at completion of a project accurately due to the lack of enough detailed project information especially in the early phase of the project. During the project execution phase, the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method incorporates predictions into the actual performance data from earned value management and revises pre-project cost estimates, making full use of the available information. The outcome of this research is to improve the accuracy of both cost prediction and final duration. This research will provide a warning method to identify when current project performance deviates from planned performance and crates an unacceptable gap between preliminary planning and actual performance. This warning method will support project managers to take corrective actions on time.

Keywords: cost forecasting, earned value management, project control, project management, risk analysis, simulation

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1221 Probabilistic Modeling Laser Transmitter

Authors: H. S. Kang

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Coupled electrical and optical model for conversion of electrical energy into coherent optical energy for transmitter-receiver link by solid state device is presented. Probability distribution for travelling laser beam switching time intervals and the number of switchings in the time interval is obtained. Selector function mapping is employed to regulate optical data transmission speed. It is established that regulated laser transmission from PhotoActive Laser transmitter follows principal of invariance. This considerably simplifies design of PhotoActive Laser Transmission networks.

Keywords: computational mathematics, finite difference Markov chain methods, sequence spaces, singularly perturbed differential equations

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1220 Energy Storage Modelling for Power System Reliability and Environmental Compliance

Authors: Rajesh Karki, Safal Bhattarai, Saket Adhikari

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Reliable and economic operation of power systems are becoming extremely challenging with large scale integration of renewable energy sources due to the intermittency and uncertainty associated with renewable power generation. It is, therefore, important to make a quantitative risk assessment and explore the potential resources to mitigate such risks. Probabilistic models for different energy storage systems (ESS), such as the flywheel energy storage system (FESS) and the compressed air energy storage (CAES) incorporating specific charge/discharge performance and failure characteristics suitable for probabilistic risk assessment in power system operation and planning are presented in this paper. The proposed methodology used in FESS modelling offers flexibility to accommodate different configurations of plant topology. It is perceived that CAES has a high potential for grid-scale application, and a hybrid approach is proposed, which embeds a Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) method in an analytical technique to develop a suitable reliability model of the CAES. The proposed ESS models are applied to a test system to investigate the economic and reliability benefits of the energy storage technologies in system operation and planning, as well as to assess their contributions in facilitating wind integration during different operating scenarios. A comparative study considering various storage system topologies are also presented. The impacts of failure rates of the critical components of ESS on the expected state of charge (SOC) and the performance of the different types of ESS during operation are illustrated with selected studies on the test system. The paper also applies the proposed models on the test system to investigate the economic and reliability benefits of the different ESS technologies and to evaluate their contributions in facilitating wind integration during different operating scenarios and system configurations. The conclusions drawn from the study results provide valuable information to help policymakers, system planners, and operators in arriving at effective and efficient policies, investment decisions, and operating strategies for planning and operation of power systems with large penetrations of renewable energy sources.

Keywords: flywheel energy storage, compressed air energy storage, power system reliability, renewable energy, system planning, system operation

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1219 Fault-Tolerant Predictive Control for Polytopic LPV Systems Subject to Sensor Faults

Authors: Sofiane Bououden, Ilyes Boulkaibet

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In this paper, a robust fault-tolerant predictive control (FTPC) strategy is proposed for systems with linear parameter varying (LPV) models and input constraints subject to sensor faults. Generally, virtual observers are used for improving the observation precision and reduce the impacts of sensor faults and uncertainties in the system. However, this type of observer lacks certain system measurements which substantially reduce its accuracy. To deal with this issue, a real observer is then designed based on the virtual observer, and consequently a real observer-based robust predictive control is designed for polytopic LPV systems. Moreover, the proposed observer can entirely assure that all system states and sensor faults are estimated. As a result, and based on both observers, a robust fault-tolerant predictive control is then established via the Lyapunov method where sufficient conditions are proposed, for stability analysis and control purposes, in linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) form. Finally, simulation results are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Keywords: linear parameter varying systems, fault-tolerant predictive control, observer-based control, sensor faults, input constraints, linear matrix inequalities

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1218 Second Order Optimality Conditions in Nonsmooth Analysis on Riemannian Manifolds

Authors: Seyedehsomayeh Hosseini

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Much attention has been paid over centuries to understanding and solving the problem of minimization of functions. Compared to linear programming and nonlinear unconstrained optimization problems, nonlinear constrained optimization problems are much more difficult. Since the procedure of finding an optimizer is a search based on the local information of the constraints and the objective function, it is very important to develop techniques using geometric properties of the constraints and the objective function. In fact, differential geometry provides a powerful tool to characterize and analyze these geometric properties. Thus, there is clearly a link between the techniques of optimization on manifolds and standard constrained optimization approaches. Furthermore, there are manifolds that are not defined as constrained sets in R^n an important example is the Grassmann manifolds. Hence, to solve optimization problems on these spaces, intrinsic methods are used. In a nondifferentiable problem, the gradient information of the objective function generally cannot be used to determine the direction in which the function is decreasing. Therefore, techniques of nonsmooth analysis are needed to deal with such a problem. As a manifold, in general, does not have a linear structure, the usual techniques, which are often used in nonsmooth analysis on linear spaces, cannot be applied and new techniques need to be developed. This paper presents necessary and sufficient conditions for a strict local minimum of extended real-valued, nonsmooth functions defined on Riemannian manifolds.

Keywords: Riemannian manifolds, nonsmooth optimization, lower semicontinuous functions, subdifferential

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1217 Spatiotemporal Community Detection and Analysis of Associations among Overlapping Communities

Authors: JooYoung Lee, Rasheed Hussain

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Understanding the relationships among communities of users is the key to blueprint the evolution of human society. Majority of people are equipped with GPS devices, such as smart phones and smart cars, which can trace their whereabouts. In this paper, we discover communities of device users based on real locations in a given time frame. We, then, study the associations of discovered communities, referred to as temporal communities, and generate temporal and probabilistic association rules. The rules describe how strong communities are associated. By studying the generated rules, we can automatically extract underlying hierarchies of communities and permanent communities such as work places.

Keywords: association rules, community detection, evolution of communities, spatiotemporal

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1216 Testing a Flexible Manufacturing System Facility Production Capacity through Discrete Event Simulation: Automotive Case Study

Authors: Justyna Rybicka, Ashutosh Tiwari, Shane Enticott

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In the age of automation and computation aiding manufacturing, it is clear that manufacturing systems have become more complex than ever before. Although technological advances provide the capability to gain more value with fewer resources, sometimes utilisation of the manufacturing capabilities available to organisations is difficult to achieve. Flexible manufacturing systems (FMS) provide a unique capability to manufacturing organisations where there is a need for product range diversification by providing line efficiency through production flexibility. This is very valuable in trend driven production set-ups or niche volume production requirements. Although FMS provides flexible and efficient facilities, its optimal set-up is key in achieving production performance. As many variables are interlinked due to the flexibility provided by the FMS, analytical calculations are not always sufficient to predict the FMS’ performance. Simulation modelling is capable of capturing the complexity and constraints associated with FMS. This paper demonstrates how discrete event simulation (DES) can address complexity in an FMS to optimise the production line performance. A case study of an automotive FMS is presented. The DES model demonstrates different configuration options depending on prioritising objectives: utilisation and throughput. Additionally, this paper provides insight into understanding the impact of system set-up constraints on the FMS performance and demonstrates the exploration into the optimal production set-up.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, flexible manufacturing system, capacity performance, automotive

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1215 A Comparative Study of Sampling-Based Uncertainty Propagation with First Order Error Analysis and Percentile-Based Optimization

Authors: M. Gulam Kibria, Shourav Ahmed, Kais Zaman

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In system analysis, the information on the uncertain input variables cause uncertainty in the system responses. Different probabilistic approaches for uncertainty representation and propagation in such cases exist in the literature. Different uncertainty representation approaches result in different outputs. Some of the approaches might result in a better estimation of system response than the other approaches. The NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (MUQC) has posed challenges about uncertainty quantification. Subproblem A, the uncertainty characterization subproblem, of the challenge posed is addressed in this study. In this subproblem, the challenge is to gather knowledge about unknown model inputs which have inherent aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in them with responses (output) of the given computational model. We use two different methodologies to approach the problem. In the first methodology we use sampling-based uncertainty propagation with first order error analysis. In the other approach we place emphasis on the use of Percentile-Based Optimization (PBO). The NASA Langley MUQC’s subproblem A is developed in such a way that both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties need to be managed. The challenge problem classifies each uncertain parameter as belonging to one the following three types: (i) An aleatory uncertainty modeled as a random variable. It has a fixed functional form and known coefficients. This uncertainty cannot be reduced. (ii) An epistemic uncertainty modeled as a fixed but poorly known physical quantity that lies within a given interval. This uncertainty is reducible. (iii) A parameter might be aleatory but sufficient data might not be available to adequately model it as a single random variable. For example, the parameters of a normal variable, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, might not be precisely known but could be assumed to lie within some intervals. It results in a distributional p-box having the physical parameter with an aleatory uncertainty, but the parameters prescribing its mathematical model are subjected to epistemic uncertainties. Each of the parameters of the random variable is an unknown element of a known interval. This uncertainty is reducible. From the study, it is observed that due to practical limitations or computational expense, the sampling is not exhaustive in sampling-based methodology. That is why the sampling-based methodology has high probability of underestimating the output bounds. Therefore, an optimization-based strategy to convert uncertainty described by interval data into a probabilistic framework is necessary. This is achieved in this study by using PBO.

Keywords: aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, first order error analysis, uncertainty quantification, percentile-based optimization

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1214 Land, History and Housing: Colonial Legacies and Land Tenure in Kuala Lumpur

Authors: Nur Fareza Mustapha

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Solutions to policy problems need to be curated to the local context, taking into account the trajectory of the local development path to ensure its efficacy. For Kuala Lumpur, rapid urbanization and migration into the city for the past few decades have increased the demand for housing to accommodate a growing urban population. As a critical factor affecting housing affordability, land supply constraints have been attributed to intensifying market pressures, which grew in tandem with the demands of urban development, along with existing institutional constraints in the governance of land. While demand-side pressures are inevitable given the fixed supply of land, supply-side constraints in regulations distort markets and if addressed inappropriately, may lead to mistargeted policy interventions. Given Malaysia’s historical development, regulatory barriers for land may originate from the British colonial period, when many aspects of the current laws governing tenure were introduced and formalized, and henceforth, became engrained in the system. This research undertakes a postcolonial institutional analysis approach to uncover the causal mechanism driving the evolution of land tenure systems in post-colonial Kuala Lumpur. It seeks to determine the sources of these shifts, focusing on the incentives and bargaining positions of actors during periods of institutional flux/change. It aims to construct a conceptual framework to further this understanding and to elucidate how this historical trajectory affects current access to urban land markets for housing. Archival analysis is used to outline and analyse the evolution of land tenure systems in Kuala Lumpur while stakeholder interviews are used to analyse its impact on the current urban land market, with a particular focus on the provision of and access to affordable housing in the city. Preliminary findings indicate that many aspects of the laws governing tenure that were introduced and formalized during the British colonial period have endured until the present day. Customary rules of tenure were displaced by rules following a European tradition, which found legitimacy through a misguided interpretation of local laws regarding the ownership of land. Colonial notions of race and its binary view of native vs. non-natives have also persisted in the construction and implementation of current legislation regarding land tenure. More concrete findings from this study will generate a more nuanced understanding of the regulatory land supply constraints in Kuala Lumpur, taking into account both the long and short term spatial and temporal processes that affect how these rules are created, implemented and enforced.

Keywords: colonial discourse, historical institutionalism, housing, land policy, post-colonial city

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1213 Unsupervised Reciter Recognition Using Gaussian Mixture Models

Authors: Ahmad Alwosheel, Ahmed Alqaraawi

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This work proposes an unsupervised text-independent probabilistic approach to recognize Quran reciter voice. It is an accurate approach that works on real time applications. This approach does not require a prior information about reciter models. It has two phases, where in the training phase the reciters' acoustical features are modeled using Gaussian Mixture Models, while in the testing phase, unlabeled reciter's acoustical features are examined among GMM models. Using this approach, a high accuracy results are achieved with efficient computation time process.

Keywords: Quran, speaker recognition, reciter recognition, Gaussian Mixture Model

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1212 A Weighted Sum Particle Swarm Approach (WPSO) Combined with a Novel Feasibility-Based Ranking Strategy for Constrained Multi-Objective Optimization of Compact Heat Exchangers

Authors: Milad Yousefi, Moslem Yousefi, Ricarpo Poley, Amer Nordin Darus

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Design optimization of heat exchangers is a very complicated task that has been traditionally carried out based on a trial-and-error procedure. To overcome the difficulties of the conventional design approaches especially when a large number of variables, constraints and objectives are involved, a new method based on a well-stablished evolutionary algorithm, particle swarm optimization (PSO), weighted sum approach and a novel constraint handling strategy is presented in this study. Since, the conventional constraint handling strategies are not effective and easy-to-implement in multi-objective algorithms, a novel feasibility-based ranking strategy is introduced which is both extremely user-friendly and effective. A case study from industry has been investigated to illustrate the performance of the presented approach. The results show that the proposed algorithm can find the near pareto-optimal with higher accuracy when it is compared to conventional non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II). Moreover, the difficulties of a trial-and-error process for setting the penalty parameters is solved in this algorithm.

Keywords: Heat exchanger, Multi-objective optimization, Particle swarm optimization, NSGA-II Constraints handling.

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1211 Tax Administration Constraints: The Case of Small and Medium Size Enterprises in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Authors: Zeleke Ayalew Alemu

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This study aims to investigate tax administration constraints in Addis Ababa with a focus on small and medium-sized enterprises by identifying issues and constraints in tax administration and assessment. The study identifies problems associated with taxpayers and tax-collecting authorities in the city. The research used qualitative and quantitative research designs and employed questionnaires, focus group discussion and key informant interviews for primary data collection and also used secondary data from different sources. The study identified many constraints that taxpayers are facing. Among others, tax administration offices’ inefficiency, reluctance to respond to taxpayers’ questions, limited tax assessment and administration knowledge and skills, and corruption and unethical practices are the major ones. Besides, the tax laws and regulations are complex and not enforced equally and fully on all taxpayers, causing a prevalence of business entities not paying taxes. This apparently results in an uneven playing field. Consequently, the tax system at present is neither fair nor transparent and increases compliance costs. In case of dispute, the appeal process is excessively long and the tax authority’s decision is irreversible. The Value Added Tax (VAT) administration and compliance system is not well designed, and VAT has created economic distortion among VAT-registered and non-registered taxpayers. Cash registration machine administration and the reporting system are big headaches for taxpayers. With regard to taxpayers, there is a lack of awareness of tax laws and documentation. Based on the above and other findings, the study forwarded recommendations, such as, ensuring fairness and transparency in tax collection and administration, enhancing the efficiency of tax authorities by use of modern technologies and upgrading human resources, conducting extensive awareness creation programs, and enforcing tax laws in a fair and equitable manner. The objective of this study is to assess problems, weaknesses and limitations of small and medium-sized enterprise taxpayers, tax authority administrations, and laws as sources of inefficiency and dissatisfaction to forward recommendations that bring about efficient, fair and transparent tax administration. The entire study has been conducted in a participatory and process-oriented manner by involving all partners and stakeholders at all levels. Accordingly, the researcher used participatory assessment methods in generating both secondary and primary data as well as both qualitative and quantitative data on the field. The research team held FGDs with 21 people from Addis Ababa City Administration tax offices and selected medium and small taxpayers. The study team also interviewed 10 KIIs selected from the various segments of stakeholders. The lead, along with research assistants, handled the KIIs using a predesigned semi-structured questionnaire.

Keywords: taxation, tax system, tax administration, small and medium enterprises

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1210 Information Needs of Cassava Processors on Small-Scale Cassava Processing in Oyo State, Nigeria

Authors: Rafiat Bolanle Fasasi-Hammed

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Cassava is an important food crop in rural households of Nigeria. It has a high potential for product diversification, because it can be processed into various products forms for human consumption and can be made into chips for farm animals, and also starch and starch derivatives. However, cassava roots are highly perishable and contain potentially toxic cyanogenic glycosides which necessitate its processing. Therefore, this study was carried out to assess information needs of cassava processors on food safety practices in Oyo State, Nigeria. Simple random sampling technique was used in the selection of 110 respondents for this study. Descriptive statistics and chi-square were used to analyze the data collected. Results of this study showed that the mean age of the respondents was 39.4 years, majority (78.7%) of the respondents was married, 51.9% had secondary education; 45.8% of the respondents have spent more than 12 years in cassava processing. The mean income realized was ₦26,347.50/month from cassava processing. Information on cassava processing got to the respondents through friends, family and relations (73.6%) and fellow cassava processors (58.6%). Serious constraints identified were ineffective extension agents (93.9%), food safety regulatory agencies (88.1%) and inadequate processing and storage facilities (67.8%). Chi-square results showed that significant relationship existed between socio-economic characteristics of the respondents (χ2 = 29.80, df = 2,), knowledge level (χ2 = 9.26, df = 4), constraints (χ2 = 13.11, df = 2) and information needs at p < 0.05 level of significance. The study recommends that there should be regular training on improved cassava processing methods for the cassava processors in the study area.

Keywords: information, needs, cassava, Oyo State, processing

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1209 Kebbi State University of Science and Technology, Aliero, Kebbi State

Authors: Ugbajah Maryjane

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The study examined the production of grass cutter and the constraints in Anambra state, Nigeria. Specifically, it described socio-economic characteristics of the respondents, determinants of net farm income and constraints to grass cutter production. Multistage and random sampling methods were used to select 50 respondents for this study. Primary data were collected by means of structured questionnaire. Non-parametric and parametric statistical tools including frequency percentage mean ranking counts, cost and returns and returns and multiple regression were deployed for data analysis. Majority 84% produce on small scale, 64 % had formal education 68% had 3-4 years of farming experience hence small scaled production were common. The income (returns) on investment was used as index of profitability, gross margin (#5,972,280), net farm income (#5,327,055.2) net return on investment (2.5) and return on investment 3.1. Net farm income was significantly influence by stock size and years of farming experience. Grass cutter farmers production problem would be ameliorated by the expression of extension education awareness campaigns to discourage unhealthy practices such as indiscriminant bush burning, use of toxic chemicals as baits, and provision of credits to the farmers.

Keywords: socio-economic factors, profitability, awareness, toxic chemicals, credits

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1208 Three-Stage Multivariate Stratified Sample Surveys with Probabilistic Cost Constraint and Random Variance

Authors: Sanam Haseen, Abdul Bari

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In this paper a three stage multivariate programming problem with random survey cost and variances as random variables has been formulated as a non-linear stochastic programming problem. The problem has been converted into an equivalent deterministic form using chance constraint programming and modified E-modeling. An empirical study of the problem has been done at the end of the paper using R-simulation.

Keywords: chance constraint programming, modified E-model, stochastic programming, stratified sample surveys, three stage sample surveys

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1207 A Brief Study about Nonparametric Adherence Tests

Authors: Vinicius R. Domingues, Luan C. S. M. Ozelim

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The statistical study has become indispensable for various fields of knowledge. Not any different, in Geotechnics the study of probabilistic and statistical methods has gained power considering its use in characterizing the uncertainties inherent in soil properties. One of the situations where engineers are constantly faced is the definition of a probability distribution that represents significantly the sampled data. To be able to discard bad distributions, goodness-of-fit tests are necessary. In this paper, three non-parametric goodness-of-fit tests are applied to a data set computationally generated to test the goodness-of-fit of them to a series of known distributions. It is shown that the use of normal distribution does not always provide satisfactory results regarding physical and behavioral representation of the modeled parameters.

Keywords: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson-Darling test, Cramer-Von-Mises test, nonparametric adherence tests

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1206 Best Resource Recommendation for a Stochastic Process

Authors: Likewin Thomas, M. V. Manoj Kumar, B. Annappa

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The aim of this study was to develop an Artificial Neural Network0 s recommendation model for an online process using the complexity of load, performance, and average servicing time of the resources. Here, the proposed model investigates the resource performance using stochastic gradient decent method for learning ranking function. A probabilistic cost function is implemented to identify the optimal θ values (load) on each resource. Based on this result the recommendation of resource suitable for performing the currently executing task is made. The test result of CoSeLoG project is presented with an accuracy of 72.856%.

Keywords: ADALINE, neural network, gradient decent, process mining, resource behaviour, polynomial regression model

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1205 Female Entrepreneurship in Egypt: Barriers and Challenges in the Aftermath of the Arab Spring

Authors: Kate Ebere Maduforo

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Examining the constraints faced by female entrepreneurs is an important subject which most literature on female entrepreneurship is centered on. However, the majority of the existing literature has focused on studying female entrepreneurs in developed societies. Recently, a sense of urgency that has emerged in trying to understand the challenges and motivations of female entrepreneurs in developing countries. The arousal of such interest has been attributed to women entrepreneurs in developing countries being identified as catalysts of economic development at a national level and champions of poverty eradication at the domestic level. This paper, therefore, examines the peculiar constraints faced by women-owned businesses in the mist of political chaos and instability. In this case, the issues experienced by female entrepreneurs in Egypt during the aftermath of the Arab Spring is the focus. Using the logit and probit regression models, data from the World Bank Middle East North Africa Enterprise Survey (MENA ES) are analyzed. The results identified that female entrepreneurs still lack business funding through financial institutions, but get significant funding assistance from family, friends, and money lenders. In addition, women-owned businesses promote and hire mostly women. Female entrepreneurs showed a preference for an impartial judicial system as a contributor to business growth.

Keywords: female entrepreneurship, development, Middle East, developing countries

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1204 Vehicle Routing Problem with Mixed Fleet of Conventional and Heterogenous Electric Vehicles and Time Dependent Charging Costs

Authors: Ons Sassi, Wahiba Ramdane Cherif-Khettaf, Ammar Oulamara

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In this paper, we consider a new real-life Heterogenous Electric Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Dependant Charging Costs and a Mixed Fleet (HEVRP-TDMF), in which a set of geographically scattered customers have to be served by a mixed fleet of vehicles composed of a heterogenous fleet of Electric Vehicles (EVs), having different battery capacities and operating costs, and Conventional Vehicles (CVs). We include the possibility of charging EVs in the available charging stations during the routes in order to serve all customers. Each charging station offers charging service with a known technology of chargers and time-dependent charging costs. Charging stations are also subject to operating time windows constraints. EVs are not necessarily compatible with all available charging technologies and a partial charging is allowed. Intermittent charging at the depot is also allowed provided that constraints related to the electricity grid are satisfied. The objective is to minimize the number of employed vehicles and then minimize the total travel and charging costs. In this study, we present a Mixed Integer Programming Model and develop a Charging Routing Heuristic and a Local Search Heuristic based on the Inject-Eject routine with three different insertion strategies. All heuristics are tested on real data instances.

Keywords: charging problem, electric vehicle, heuristics, local search, optimization, routing problem

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1203 Regional Adjustment to the Analytical Attenuation Coefficient in the GMPM BSSA 14 for the Region of Spain

Authors: Gonzalez Carlos, Martinez Fransisco

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There are various types of analysis that allow us to involve seismic phenomena that cause strong requirements for structures that are designed by society; one of them is a probabilistic analysis which works from prediction equations that have been created based on metadata seismic compiled in different regions. These equations form models that are used to describe the 5% damped pseudo spectra response for the various zones considering some easily known input parameters. The biggest problem for the creation of these models requires data with great robust statistics that support the results, and there are several places where this type of information is not available, for which the use of alternative methodologies helps to achieve adjustments to different models of seismic prediction.

Keywords: GMPM, 5% damped pseudo-response spectra, models of seismic prediction, PSHA

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1202 Mental Health of Caregivers in Public Hospital Intensive Care Department: A Multicentric Cross-Sectional Study

Authors: Lamia Bouzgarrou, Amira Omrane, Naima Bouatay, Chaima Harrathi, Samia Machroughl, Ahmed Mhalla

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Background and Aims: Professionals of health care sector are exposed to psychosocial constraints like stress, harassment, violence, which can lead to many mental health problems such as, depression, addictive behavior, and burn-out. Moreover, it’s well established that caregivers affected to intensive care units are more likely to experience such constraints and mental health problems. For these caregivers, the mental health state may affect care quality and patient’s safety. This study aims either to identify occupational psychosocial constraints and their mental health consequences among paramedical and medical caregivers affected to intensive units in Tunisian public hospital. Methods: An exhaustive three months cross-sectional study conducted among medical and paramedical staffs of intensive care units in three Tunisian university hospitals. After informed consent collection, we evaluated work-related stress, workplace harassment, depression, anxious troubles, addictive behavior, and self-esteems through an anonymous self-completed inquiry form. Five validated questionnaires and scales were included in this form: Karasek's Job Content Questionnaire, Negative Acts Questionnaire, Rosenberg, Beck depression inventory and Hamilton Anxiety scale. Results: We included 129 intensive unit caregivers; with a mean age of 36.1 ± 1.1 years and a sex ratio of 0.58. Among these caregivers, 30% were specialist or under-specialization doctors. The average seniority in the intensive care was 6.1 ± 1.2 (extremes=1 to 40 years). Atypical working schedules were noted among 36.7% of the subjects with an imposed choice in 52.4% of cases. During the last 12 months preceding the survey, 51.7% of care workers were absent from work because of a health problem with stops exceeding 15 days in 11.7%. Job strain was objective among 15% of caregivers and 38.33% of them were victims of moral harassment. A low or very low self-esteem was noted among 40% of respondents. Moreover, active smoking was reported by 20% subjects, alcohol consumption by 13.3% and psychotropic substance use by 1.7% of them. According to Beck inventory and Hamilton Anxiety scale, we concluded that 61.7% of intensive care providers were depressed, with 'severe' depression in 13.3% of cases and 49.9% of them present anxious disorders. Multivariate analysis objective that, job strain was correlated with young age (p=0.005) and shorter work seniority (p=0.001). Workplace and moral harassment was more prevalent among females (p=0.009), under-specialization doctor (p=0.021), those affected to atypical schedules (p=0.008). Concerning depression, it was more prevalent among staff in job strain situation (p = 0.004), among smokers caregivers (p = 0.048), and those with no leisure activity (p < 0.001). Anxious disorders were positively correlated to chronic diseases history (p = 0.001) and work-bullying exposure (p = 0.004). Conclusions: Our findings reflected a high frequency of caregivers who are under stress at work and those who are victims of moral harassment. These health professionals were at increased risk for developing psychiatric illness such depressive and anxious disorders and addictive behavior. Our results suggest the necessity of preventive strategies of occupational psychosocial constraints in order to preserve professional’s mental health and maximize patient safety and quality of care.

Keywords: health care sector, intensive care units, mental health, psychosocial constraints

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1201 Optimum Design of Steel Space Frames by Hybrid Teaching-Learning Based Optimization and Harmony Search Algorithms

Authors: Alper Akin, Ibrahim Aydogdu

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This study presents a hybrid metaheuristic algorithm to obtain optimum designs for steel space buildings. The optimum design problem of three-dimensional steel frames is mathematically formulated according to provisions of LRFD-AISC (Load and Resistance factor design of American Institute of Steel Construction). Design constraints such as the strength requirements of structural members, the displacement limitations, the inter-story drift and the other structural constraints are derived from LRFD-AISC specification. In this study, a hybrid algorithm by using teaching-learning based optimization (TLBO) and harmony search (HS) algorithms is employed to solve the stated optimum design problem. These algorithms are two of the recent additions to metaheuristic techniques of numerical optimization and have been an efficient tool for solving discrete programming problems. Using these two algorithms in collaboration creates a more powerful tool and mitigates each other’s weaknesses. To demonstrate the powerful performance of presented hybrid algorithm, the optimum design of a large scale steel building is presented and the results are compared to the previously obtained results available in the literature.

Keywords: optimum structural design, hybrid techniques, teaching-learning based optimization, harmony search algorithm, minimum weight, steel space frame

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1200 Computationally Efficient Stacking Sequence Blending for Composite Structures with a Large Number of Design Regions Using Cellular Automata

Authors: Ellen Van Den Oord, Julien Marie Jan Ferdinand Van Campen

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This article introduces a computationally efficient method for stacking sequence blending of composite structures. The computational efficiency makes the presented method especially interesting for composite structures with a large number of design regions. Optimization of composite structures with an unequal load distribution may lead to locally optimized thicknesses and ply orientations that are incompatible with one another. Blending constraints can be enforced to achieve structural continuity. In literature, many methods can be found to implement structural continuity by means of stacking sequence blending in one way or another. The complexity of the problem makes the blending of a structure with a large number of adjacent design regions, and thus stacking sequences, prohibitive. In this work the local stacking sequence optimization is preconditioned using a method found in the literature that couples the mechanical behavior of the laminate, in the form of lamination parameters, to blending constraints, yielding near-optimal easy-to-blend designs. The preconditioned design is then fed to the scheme using cellular automata that have been developed by the authors. The method is applied to the benchmark 18-panel horseshoe blending problem to demonstrate its performance. The computational efficiency of the proposed method makes it especially suited for composite structures with a large number of design regions.

Keywords: composite, blending, optimization, lamination parameters

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1199 Considering Uncertainties of Input Parameters on Energy, Environmental Impacts and Life Cycle Costing by Monte Carlo Simulation in the Decision Making Process

Authors: Johannes Gantner, Michael Held, Matthias Fischer

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The refurbishment of the building stock in terms of energy supply and efficiency is one of the major challenges of the German turnaround in energy policy. As the building sector accounts for 40% of Germany’s total energy demand, additional insulation is key for energy efficient refurbished buildings. Nevertheless the energetic benefits often the environmental and economic performances of insulation materials are questioned. The methods Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) as well as Life Cycle Costing (LCC) can form the standardized basis for answering this doubts and more and more become important for material producers due efforts such as Product Environmental Footprint (PEF) or Environmental Product Declarations (EPD). Due to increasing use of LCA and LCC information for decision support the robustness and resilience of the results become crucial especially for support of decision and policy makers. LCA and LCC results are based on respective models which depend on technical parameters like efficiencies, material and energy demand, product output, etc.. Nevertheless, the influence of parameter uncertainties on lifecycle results are usually not considered or just studied superficially. Anyhow the effect of parameter uncertainties cannot be neglected. Based on the example of an exterior wall the overall lifecycle results are varying by a magnitude of more than three. As a result simple best case worst case analyses used in practice are not sufficient. These analyses allow for a first rude view on the results but are not taking effects into account such as error propagation. Thereby LCA practitioners cannot provide further guidance for decision makers. Probabilistic analyses enable LCA practitioners to gain deeper understanding of the LCA and LCC results and provide a better decision support. Within this study, the environmental and economic impacts of an exterior wall system over its whole lifecycle are illustrated, and the effect of different uncertainty analysis on the interpretation in terms of resilience and robustness are shown. Hereby the approaches of error propagation and Monte Carlo Simulations are applied and combined with statistical methods in order to allow for a deeper understanding and interpretation. All in all this study emphasis the need for a deeper and more detailed probabilistic evaluation based on statistical methods. Just by this, misleading interpretations can be avoided, and the results can be used for resilient and robust decisions.

Keywords: uncertainty, life cycle assessment, life cycle costing, Monte Carlo simulation

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1198 Using Lean-Six Sigma Philosophy to Enhance Revenues and Improve Customer Satisfaction: Case Studies from Leading Telecommunications Service Providers in India

Authors: Senthil Kumar Anantharaman

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Providing telecommunications based network services in developing countries like India which has a population of 1.5 billion people, so that these services reach every individual, is one of the greatest challenges the country has been facing in its journey towards economic growth and development. With growing number of telecommunications service providers in the country, a constant challenge that has been faced by these providers is in providing not only quality but also delightful customer experience while simultaneously generating enhanced revenues and profits. Thus, the role played by process improvement methodologies like Six Sigma cannot be undermined and specifically in telecom service provider based operations, it has provided substantial benefits. Therefore, it advantages are quite comparable to its applications and advantages in other sectors like manufacturing, financial services, information technology-based services and Healthcare services. One of the key reasons that this methodology has been able to reap great benefits in telecommunications sector is that this methodology has been combined with many of its competing process improvement techniques like Theory of Constraints, Lean and Kaizen to give the maximum benefit to the service providers thereby creating a winning combination of organized process improvement methods for operational excellence thereby leading to business excellence. This paper discusses about some of the key projects and areas in the end to end ‘Quote to Cash’ process at big three Indian telecommunication companies that have been highly assisted by applying Six Sigma along with other process improvement techniques. While the telecommunication companies which we have considered, is primarily in India and run by both private operators and government based setups, the methodology can be applied equally well in any other part of developing countries around the world having similar context. This study also compares the enhanced revenues that can arise out of appropriate opportunities in emerging market scenarios, that Six Sigma as a philosophy and methodology can provide if applied with vigour and robustness. Finally, the paper also comes out with a winning framework in combining Six Sigma methodology with Kaizen, Lean and Theory of Constraints that will enhance both the top-line as well as the bottom-line while providing the customers a delightful experience.

Keywords: emerging markets, lean, process improvement, six sigma, telecommunications, theory of constraints

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1197 Uvulars Alternation in Hasawi Arabic: A Harmonic Serialism Approach

Authors: Huda Ahmed Al Taisan

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This paper investigates a phonological phenomenon, which exhibits variation ‘alternation’ in terms of the uvular consonants [q] and [ʁ] in Hasawi Arabic. This dialect is spoken in Alahsa city, which is located in the Eastern province of Saudi Arabia. To the best of our knowledge, no such research has systematically studied this phenomenon in Hasawi Arabic dialect. This paper is significant because it fills the gap in the literature about this alternation phenomenon in this understudied dialect. A large amount of the data is extracted from several interviews the author has conducted with 10 participants, native speakers of the dialect, and complemented by additional forms from social media. The latter method of collecting the data adds to the significance of the research. The analysis of the data is carried out in Harmonic Serialism Optimality Theory (HS-OT), a version of the Optimality Theoretic (OT) framework, which holds that linguistic forms are the outcome of the interaction among violable universal constraints, and in the recent development of OT into a model that accounts for linguistic variation in harmonic derivational steps. This alternation process is assumed to be phonologically unconditioned and in free variation in other varieties of Arabic dialects in the area. The goal of this paper is to investigate whether this phenomenon is in free variation or governed, what governs this alternation between [q] and [ʁ] and whether the alternation is phonological or other linguistic constraints are in action. The results show that the [q] and [ʁ] alternation is not free and it occurs due to different assimilation processes. Positional, segmental sequence and vowel adjacency factors are in action in Hasawi Arabic.

Keywords: harmonic serialism, Hasawi, uvular, variation

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1196 A Probabilistic View of the Spatial Pooler in Hierarchical Temporal Memory

Authors: Mackenzie Leake, Liyu Xia, Kamil Rocki, Wayne Imaino

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In the Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) paradigm the effect of overlap between inputs on the activation of columns in the spatial pooler is studied. Numerical results suggest that similar inputs are represented by similar sets of columns and dissimilar inputs are represented by dissimilar sets of columns. It is shown that the spatial pooler produces these results under certain conditions for the connectivity and proximal thresholds. Following the discussion of the initialization of parameters for the thresholds, corresponding qualitative arguments about the learning dynamics of the spatial pooler are discussed.

Keywords: hierarchical temporal memory, HTM, learning algorithms, machine learning, spatial pooler

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1195 Rural Development through Women Participation in Livestock Care and Management in District Faisalabad

Authors: Arfan Riasat, M. Iqbal Zafar, Gulfam Riasat

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Pakistani women actively participate in livestock management activities, along with their normal domestic chores. The study was designed to measure the position and contribution of rural women, their constraints in livestock management activities and mainly how the rural women contribute for development in the district Faisalabad. It was envisioned that women participation in livestock activities have rarely been investigated. A multistage random sampling technique was used to collect the data from Tehsil Summandry of the district selected at random. Two union councils were taken by using simple random sampling technique. Four Chak (village) from each union council were selected at random and fifteen woman were further selected randomly from each selected chak. The results show that a vast majority of women were illiterate, having annual family income of one to two lac. They are living in joint family system. Their main occupation is agriculture and they spend long hours in whole livestock related activities to support their families. A large proportion of the respondents reported that they had to face problems and constraints in livestock activities in the context of decision making, medication, awareness, training along with social and economic issues. Analysis indicated that education level of women, income of household, age were significantly associated with level of participation. Women participation in livestock activities increased production and they were involved in income generating activities for better economic conditions of their families.

Keywords: women, participation, livestock, management, rural development

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