Search results for: predictive distribution

Authors: Jiri Dufek

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The national model of the Czech Republic has been modified in a detailed way to get detailed travel demand in the municipality level (cities, villages over 300 inhabitants). As a technique for this detailed modelling, three-dimensional procedure for calibrating gravity models, was used. Besides of zone production and attraction, which is usual in gravity models, the next additional parameter for trip distribution was introduced. Usually it is called by “third dimension”. In the model, this parameter is a demand between regions. The distribution procedure involved calculation of appropriate skim matrices and its multiplication by three coefficients obtained by iterative balancing of production, attraction and third dimension. This type of trip distribution was processed in R-project and the results were used in the Czech Republic transport model, created in PTV Vision. This process generated more precise results in local level od the model (towns, villages)

Keywords: trip distribution, three dimension, transport model, municipalities

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Authors: S. Chebbi, A. Meddeb

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The distribution networks are often exposed to harmful incidents which can halt the electricity supply of the customer. In this context, we studied a real case of a critical zone of the Tunisian network which is currently characterized by the dysfunction of its plan of protection. In this paper, we were interested in the harmonization of the protection plan settings in order to ensure a perfect selectivity and a better continuity of service on the whole of the network.

Keywords: distribution network Gabes-Tunisia, continuity of service, protection plan settings, selectivity

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Authors: P. Zarfam, M. Mansouri Baghbaderani

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In seismic design, the proper reaction to the earthquake and the correct and accurate prediction of its subsequent effects on the structure are critical. Choose a proper probability distribution, which gives a more realistic probability of the structure's damage rate, is essential in damage discussions. With the development of design based on performance, analytical method of modal push over as an inexpensive, efficacious, and quick one in the estimation of the structures' seismic response is broadly used in engineering contexts. In this research three concrete frames of 3, 6, and 13 stories are analyzed in non-linear modal push over by 30 different earthquake records by OpenSEES software, then the detriment indexes of roof's displacement and relative displacement ratio of the stories are calculated by two parameters: peak ground acceleration and spectra acceleration. These indexes are used to establish the value of damage relations with log-normal distribution and logistics distribution. Finally the value of these relations is compared and the effect of height on the mentioned damage relations is studied, too.

Keywords: modal pushover analysis, concrete structure, seismic damage, log-normal distribution, logistic distribution

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Authors: Sahar El-Achkar, Mizan Ahmad

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Poor adaptation of developmental milestones over the lifespan can significantly impact emotional experiences and Satisfaction with Life (SWL) post-retirement. Thus, it is important to understand how adaptive behaviour over the life course can predict emotional experiences. Broadly emotional experiences are either Positive Affect (PA) or Negative Affect (NA). This study sought to explore the impact of successful adaptation of developmental milestones throughout one’s life on emotional experiences and satisfaction with life following retirement. A cross-sectional self-report survey was completed by 132 Australian retirees between the ages 55 and 70 years. Three hierarchical regression models were fitted, controlling for age and gender, to predict PA, NA, and SWL. The full model predicting PA was statistically significant overall, F (8, 121) = 17.97, p < .001, account for 57% of the variability in PA. Industry/Inferiority were significantly predictive of PA. The full model predicting NA was statistically significant overall, F (8, 121) = 12.00, p < .001, accounting for 51% of the variability in NA. Age and Trust/Mistrust were significantly predictive of NA. The full model predicting NA was statistically significant overall, F (8, 121) = 12.00, p < .001, accounting for 51% of the variability in NA. Age and Trust/Mistrust were significantly predictive of NA. The full model predicting SWL, F (8, 121) = 11.05, p < .001, accounting for 45% of the variability in SWL. Trust/Mistrust and Ego Integrity/Despair were significantly predictive of SWL. A sense of industry post-retirement is important in generating PA. These results highlight that individuals presenting with adaptation and identity issues are likely to present with adjustment challenges and unpleasant emotional experiences post-retirement. This supports the importance of identifying and understanding the benefits of successful adaptation and development throughout the lifespan and its significance for the self-concept. Most importantly, the quality of lives of many may be improved, and the future risk of continued poor emotional experiences and SWL post-retirement may be mitigated. Specifically, the clinical implications of these findings are that they support the promotion of successful adaption over the life course and healthy ageing.

Keywords: adaptation, development, negative affect, positive affect, retirement, satisfaction with life

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Authors: Rafid Saeed Abdulrazak Alshkaki

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In this paper, zero-one inflated negative binomial distribution is considered, along with some of its structural properties, then its parameters were estimated using the method of moments. It is found that the method of moments to estimate the parameters of the zero-one inflated negative binomial models is not a proper method and may give incorrect conclusions.

Keywords: zero one inflated models, negative binomial distribution, moments estimator, non negative integer sampling

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Authors: Mohd Sabri Minhat, Nurul Adilla Mohd Subha

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The 1MWth PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor (RTP) in Malaysia Nuclear Agency has been operating more than 35 years. The existing core power control is using conventional controller known as Feedback Control Algorithm (FCA). It is technically challenging to keep the core power output always stable and operating within acceptable error bands for the safety demand of the RTP. Currently, the system could be considered unsatisfactory with power tracking performance, yet there is still significant room for improvement. Hence, a new design core power control is very important to improve the current performance in tracking and regulating reactor power by controlling the movement of control rods that suit the demand of highly sensitive of nuclear reactor power control. In this paper, the proposed Model Predictive Control (MPC) law was applied to control the core power. The model for core power control was based on mathematical models of the reactor core, MPC, and control rods selection algorithm. The mathematical models of the reactor core were based on point kinetics model, thermal hydraulic models, and reactivity models. The proposed MPC was presented in a transfer function model of the reactor core according to perturbations theory. The transfer function model-based predictive control (TFMPC) was developed to design the core power control with predictions based on a T-filter towards the real-time implementation of MPC on hardware. This paper introduces the sensitivity functions for TFMPC feedback loop to reduce the impact on the input actuation signal and demonstrates the behaviour of TFMPC in term of disturbance and noise rejections. The comparisons of both tracking and regulating performance between the conventional controller and TFMPC were made using MATLAB and analysed. In conclusion, the proposed TFMPC has satisfactory performance in tracking and regulating core power for controlling nuclear reactor with high reliability and safety.

Keywords: core power control, model predictive control, PUSPATI TRIGA reactor, TFMPC

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Authors: G. N. Srinivas, K. Raju

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This paper presents Markov processes for determining the reliability indices of distribution system. The continuous Markov modeling is applied to a complex radial distribution system and electrical equivalent circuits are developed for the modeling. In general PSPICE is being used for electrical and electronic circuits and various applications of power system like fault analysis, transient analysis etc. In this paper, the SPICE modeling equivalent circuits which are developed are applied in a novel way to Distribution System reliability analysis. These circuits are simulated using PSPICE software to obtain the state probabilities, the basic and performance indices. Thus the basic indices and the performance indices obtained by this method are compared with those obtained by FMEA technique. The application of the concepts presented in this paper are illustrated and analyzed for IEEE-Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS).

Keywords: distribution system, Markov Model, reliability indices, spice simulation

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Authors: Armansyah, I. P. Almanar, M. Saiful Bahari Shaari, M. Shamil Jaffarullah, Nur’amirah Busu, M. Arif Fadzleen Zainal Abidin, M. Amlie A. Kasim

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Temperature distribution in Friction Stir Welding (FSW) of 6061-T6 Aluminum Alloy is modeled using the Finite Element Method (FEM). In order to obtain temperature distribution in the welded aluminum plates during welding operation, transient thermal finite element analyses are performed. Heat input from tool shoulder and tool pin are considered in the model. A moving heat source with a heat distribution simulating the heat generated by frictions between tool shoulder and workpiece is used in the analysis. Three-dimensional model for simulated process is carried out by using Altair HyperWork, a commercially available software. Transient thermal finite element analyses are performed in order to obtain the temperature distribution in the welded Aluminum plates during welding operation. The developed model was then used to show the effect of various input parameters such as total rate of welding speed and rotational speed on temperature distribution in the workpiece.

Keywords: frictions stir welding, temperature distribution, finite element method, altair hyperwork

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Authors: Avinash Thakur, Parmjit S. Panesar, Manohar Singh

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The distribution coefficient, KD for the reactive extraction of lactic acid from aqueous solutions of lactic acid using 10-30% (v/v) tri-n-octyl amine (extractant) dissolved in n-hexane (inert diluent) and 20% (v/v) oleyl alcohol (modifier) was optimized by using response surface methodology (RSM). A three level Box-Behnken design was employed for experimental design, analysis of the results and to depict the combined interactive effect of seven independent variables, viz lactic acid concentration (cl), pH, TOA concentration in organic phase (ψ), treat ratio (φ), temperature (T), agitation speed (ω) and batch agitation time (τ) on distribution coefficient of lactic acid. The regression analysis recommended that the quadratic model is significant (R2 and adjusted R2 are 98.72 % and 98.69 % respectively) for analysis. A numerical optimization had resulted in maximum lactic acid distribution coefficient (KD) of 3.16 at the optimized values for test variables, cl, pH, ψ, φ, T, ω and τ as 0.15 [M], 3.0, 22.75% (v/v), 1.0 (v/v), 26°C, 145 rpm and 23 min respectively. A good agreement between the predicted and experimentally obtained values for distribution coefficient using the optimized conditions was exhibited.

Keywords: Distribution coefficient, tri-n-octylamine, lactic acid, response surface methodology

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Authors: Nasser Marshad Alzeer

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This study examines the spatial distribution of secondary schools in Riyadh. It considers both public girls and boys sector provision and assesses the efficiency of the spatial distribution of secondary schools. Since the establishment of the Ministry of Education (MOE) in 1953 and General Presidency for Female Education, (GPFE) in 1960, there has been a great expansion of education services in Saudi Arabia, particularly during the 1980s. However, recent years have seen much slower rates of increase in the public education sector but the population continues to grow rapidly. This study investigates the spatial distribution of schools through the use of questionnaire surveys and applied GIS. Overall, the results indicate a shortage of public secondary schools, especially in the north of the city. It is clear that there is overcrowding in the majority of secondary schools. The establishment of new schools has been suggested to solve the problem of overcrowding. A number of socio-economic and demographic factors are associated with differences in the utilization of the public secondary schools. A GIS was applied in this study in order to assess the spatial distribution of secondary schools including the modification of existing catchment area boundaries and locating new schools. This modification could also reduce the pupil pressure on certain schools and further benefits could probably be gained.

Keywords: analysis, distribution, Saudi, GIS, schools

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Authors: Lee P. Leon, Raymond Charles

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This paper presents a method of evaluating the effect of aggregate angularity on hot mix asphalt (HMA) properties and its relationship to the Permanent Deformation resistance. The research concluded that aggregate particle angularity had a significant effect on the Permanent Deformation performance, and also that with an increase in coarse aggregate angularity there was an increase in the resistance of mixes to Permanent Deformation. A comparison between the measured data and predictive data of permanent deformation predictive models showed the limits of existing prediction models. The numerical analysis described the permanent deformation zones and concluded that angularity has an effect of the onset of these zones. Prediction of permanent deformation help road agencies and by extension economists and engineers determine the best approach for maintenance, rehabilitation, and new construction works of the road infrastructure.

Keywords: aggregate angularity, asphalt concrete, permanent deformation, rutting prediction

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Authors: Tariq Mahmood, Faiza Lehrasab, Faraz Akrim, Muhammad Sajid nadeem, Muhammad Mushtaq, Unza waqar, Ayesha Sheraz, Shaista Andleeb

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Brown bear (Ursus arctos), a member of the family Ursidae, is distributed in a wide range of habitats in North America, Europe and Asia. Suspectedly, the global distribution range of brown bears is decreasing at the moment due to various factors. The carnivore species is categorized as ‘Least Concern’ globally by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. However, there are some fragmented, small populations that are on the verge of extinction, as is in Pakistan, where the species is listed as ‘Critically Endangered’, with a declining population trend. Importantly, the global historical distribution range of brown bears is undocumented. Therefore, in the current study, we reconstructed and estimated the historical distribution range of brown bears using QGIS software and also analyzed the network of protected areas in the past and current ranges of the species. Results showed that brown bear was more widely distributed in historic times, encompassing 52.6 million km² area as compared to their current distribution of 38.8 million km², resulting in a total range contraction of up to approximately 28 %. In the past, a total of N = 62,234 protected Areas, covering approximately 3.89 million km² were present in the distribution range of the species, while now a total of N= 33,313 Protected Areas, covering approximately 2.75 million km² area, are present in the current distribution range of the brown bear. The brown bear distribution range in the protected areas has also contracted by 1.15 million km² and the total percentage reduction of PAs is 29%.

Keywords: brown bear, historic distribution, range contraction, protected areas

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Authors: Sumaira Ashraf, Elisabete G.S. Félix, Zélia Serrasqueiro

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Traditional financial distress prediction models performed well to predict bankrupt and insolvent firms of the developed markets. Previous studies particularly focused on the predictability of financial distress, financial failure, and bankruptcy of firms. This paper contributes to the literature by extending the definition of financial distress with the inclusion of early warning signs related to quotation of face value, dividend/bonus declaration, annual general meeting, and listing fee. The study used five well-known distress prediction models to see if they have the ability to predict early warning signs of financial distress. Results showed that the predictive ability of the models varies over time and decreases specifically for the sample with early warning signs of financial distress. Furthermore, the study checked the differences in the predictive ability of the models with respect to the financial crisis. The results conclude that the predictive ability of the traditional financial distress prediction models decreases for the firms with early warning signs of financial distress and during the time of financial crisis. The study developed a new model comprising significant variables from the five models and one new variable earning response. This new model outperforms the old distress prediction models before, during and after the financial crisis. Thus, it can be used by researchers, organizations and all other concerned parties to indicate early warning signs for the emerging markets.

Keywords: financial distress, emerging market, prediction models, Z-Score, logit analysis, probit model

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Authors: Eduardo Rodrigues, Gisela Mendes, José M. Torres, José E. Sousa

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In the sequence of the liberalisation of the electricity sector a progressive engagement of consumers has been considered and targeted by sector regulatory policies. With the objective of promoting market competition while protecting consumers interests, by transferring some of the upstream benefits to the end users while reaching a fair distribution of system costs, different market models to value consumers’ demand flexibility at the energy community level are envisioned. Local Energy and Flexibility Markets (LEFM) involve stakeholders interested in providing or procure local flexibility for community, services and markets’ value. Under the scope of DOMINOES, a European research project supported by Horizon 2020, the local market concept developed is expected to: • Enable consumers/prosumers empowerment, by allowing them to value their demand flexibility and Distributed Energy Resources (DER); • Value local liquid flexibility to support innovative distribution grid management, e.g., local balancing and congestion management, voltage control and grid restoration; • Ease the wholesale market uptake of DER, namely small-scale flexible loads aggregation as Virtual Power Plants (VPPs), facilitating Demand Response (DR) service provision; • Optimise the management and local sharing of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in Medium Voltage (MV) and Low Voltage (LV) grids, trough energy transactions within an energy community; • Enhance the development of energy markets through innovative business models, compatible with ongoing policy developments, that promote the easy access of retailers and other service providers to the local markets, allowing them to take advantage of communities’ flexibility to optimise their portfolio and subsequently their participation in external markets. The general concept proposed foresees a flow of market actions, technical validations, subsequent deliveries of energy and/or flexibility and balance settlements. Since the market operation should be dynamic and capable of addressing different requests, either prioritising balancing and prosumer services or system’s operation, direct procurement of flexibility within the local market must also be considered. This paper aims to highlight the research on the definition of suitable DR models to be used by the Distribution System Operator (DSO), in case of technical needs, and by the retailer, mainly for portfolio optimisation and solve unbalances. The models to be proposed and implemented within relevant smart distribution grid and microgrid validation environments, are focused on day-ahead and intraday operation scenarios, for predictive management and near-real-time control respectively under the DSO’s perspective. At local level, the DSO will be able to procure flexibility in advance to tackle different grid constrains (e.g., demand peaks, forecasted voltage and current problems and maintenance works), or during the operating day-to-day, to answer unpredictable constraints (e.g., outages, frequency deviations and voltage problems). Due to the inherent risks of their active market participation retailers may resort to DR models to manage their portfolio, by optimising their market actions and solve unbalances. The interaction among the market actors involved in the DR activation and in flexibility exchange is explained by a set of sequence diagrams for the DR modes of use from the DSO and the energy provider perspectives. • DR for DSO’s predictive management – before the operating day; • DR for DSO’s real-time control – during the operating day; • DR for retailer’s day-ahead operation; • DR for retailer’s intraday operation.

Keywords: demand response, energy communities, flexible demand, local energy and flexibility markets

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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This study was designed to find the best-fit probability distribution of annual rainfall based on 50 years sample (1966-2015) in the Karkheh river basin at Iran using six probability distributions: Normal, 2-Parameter Log Normal, 3-Parameter Log Normal, Pearson Type 3, Log Pearson Type 3 and Gumbel distribution. The best fit probability distribution was selected using Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and based on the Residual Sum of Squares (R.S.S) between observed and estimated values Based on the R.S.S values of fit tests, the Log Pearson Type 3 and then Pearson Type 3 distributions were found to be the best-fit probability distribution at the Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal rainfall gauging station. The annual values of expected rainfall were calculated using the best fit probability distributions and can be used by hydrologists and design engineers in future research at studied region and other region in the world.

Keywords: Log Pearson Type 3, SMADA, rainfall, Karkheh River

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Authors: James Ladzekpo

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Background: The urgent need to identify new pharmacological targets for diabetes treatment and prevention has been amplified by the disease's extensive impact on individuals and healthcare systems. A deeper insight into the biological underpinnings of diabetes is crucial for the creation of therapeutic strategies aimed at these biological processes. Current predictive models based on genetic variations fall short of accurately forecasting diabetes. Objectives: Our study aims to pinpoint key epigenetic factors that predispose individuals to diabetes. These factors will inform the development of an advanced predictive model that estimates diabetes risk from genetic profiles, utilizing state-of-the-art statistical and data mining methods. Methodology: We have implemented a recursive feature elimination with cross-validation using the support vector machine (SVM) approach for refined feature selection. Building on this, we developed six machine learning models, including logistic regression, k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN), Naive Bayes, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network, to evaluate their performance. Findings: The Gradient Boosting Classifier excelled, achieving a median recall of 92.17% and outstanding metrics such as area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) with a median of 68%, alongside median accuracy and precision scores of 76%. Through our machine learning analysis, we identified 31 genes significantly associated with diabetes traits, highlighting their potential as biomarkers and targets for diabetes management strategies. Conclusion: Particularly noteworthy were the Gradient Boosting Classifier and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network, which demonstrated potential in diabetes outcome prediction. We recommend future investigations to incorporate larger cohorts and a wider array of predictive variables to enhance the models' predictive capabilities.

Keywords: diabetes, machine learning, prediction, biomarkers

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Authors: Xiang Jia, Zhijun Cheng

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The residual lifetime of a product is the operation time between the current time and the time point when the failure happens. The residual lifetime estimation is rather important in reliability analysis. To predict the residual lifetime, it is necessary to assume or verify a particular distribution that the lifetime of the product follows. And the two-parameter Weibull distribution is frequently adopted to describe the lifetime in reliability engineering. Due to the time constraint and cost reduction, a life testing experiment is usually terminated before all the units have failed. Then the censored data is usually collected. In addition, other information could also be obtained for reliability analysis. The expert judgements are considered as it is common that the experts could present some useful information concerning the reliability. Therefore, the residual lifetime is estimated for Weibull distribution by fusing the censored data and expert judgements in this paper. First, the closed-forms concerning the point estimate and confidence interval for the residual lifetime under the Weibull distribution are both presented. Next, the expert judgements are regarded as the prior information and how to determine the prior distribution of Weibull parameters is developed. For completeness, the cases that there is only one, and there are more than two expert judgements are both focused on. Further, the posterior distribution of Weibull parameters is derived. Considering that it is difficult to derive the posterior distribution of residual lifetime, a sample-based method is proposed to generate the posterior samples of Weibull parameters based on the Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) method. And these samples are used to obtain the Bayes estimation and credible interval for the residual lifetime. Finally, an illustrative example is discussed to show the application. It demonstrates that the proposed method is rather simple, satisfactory, and robust.

Keywords: expert judgements, information fusion, residual lifetime, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Avinoam Rabinovich

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CO₂ geological storage is a proven technology for reducing anthropogenic carbon emissions, which is paramount for achieving the ambitious net zero emissions goal. Core flooding experiments are an important step in any CO₂ storage project, allowing us to gain information on the flow of CO₂ and brine in the porous rock extracted from the reservoir. This information is important for understanding basic mechanisms related to CO₂ geological storage as well as for reservoir modeling, which is an integral part of a field project. In this work, a different method for constructing accurate models of CO₂-brine core flooding will be presented. Results for synthetic cases and real experiments will be shown and compared with numerical models to exhibit their predictive capabilities. Furthermore, the various mechanisms which impact the CO₂ distribution and trapping in the rock samples will be discussed, and examples from models and experiments will be provided. The new method entails solving an inverse problem to obtain a three-dimensional permeability distribution which, along with the relative permeability and capillary pressure functions, constitutes a model of the flow experiments. The model is more accurate when data from a number of experiments are combined to solve the inverse problem. This model can then be used to test various other injection flow rates and fluid fractions which have not been tested in experiments. The models can also be used to bridge the gap between small-scale capillary heterogeneity effects (sub-core and core scale) and large-scale (reservoir scale) effects, known as the upscaling problem.

Keywords: CO₂ geological storage, residual trapping, capillary heterogeneity, core flooding, CO₂-brine flow

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Authors: Moataz Ammar, Ahdab Elmorshedy

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The distributed generation hosting capacity of a distribution network is typically limited at a given connection point by the upper voltage limit that can be violated due to the injection of active power into the distribution network. The upper voltage limit violation concern becomes more important as the network equivalent resistance increases with respect to its equivalent reactance. This paper investigates the impact of modifying the distribution network equivalent reactance at the point of connection such that the upper voltage limit is violated at a higher distributed generation penetration, than it would without the addition of series reactive compensation. The results show that series reactive compensation proves efficient in certain situations (based on the ratio of equivalent network reactance to equivalent network resistance at the point of connection). As opposed to the conventional case of capacitive compensation of a distribution network to reduce voltage drop, inductive compensation is seen to be more appropriate for alleviation of distributed-generation-induced voltage rise.

Keywords: distributed generation, distribution networks, series compensation, voltage rise

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Authors: Adel Kara, Abdelhafid Bayadi, Hocine Terrab

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This paper presents a study of electric field distribution along of 72 kV polymeric outdoor insulators with broken sheds. Different cases of damaged insulators are modeled and both of clean and polluted cases. By 3D finite element analysis using the software package COMSOL Multiphysics 4.3b. The obtained results of potential and the electrical field distribution around insulators by 3D simulation proved that finite element computations is useful tool for studying insulation electrical field distribution.

Keywords: electric field distributions, insulator, broken sheds, potential distributions

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Authors: Farhad Asadi, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Aref Ghafouri

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Recent research in neural networks science and neuroscience for modeling complex time series data and statistical learning has focused mostly on learning from high input space and signals. Local linear models are a strong choice for modeling local nonlinearity in data series. Locally weighted projection regression is a flexible and powerful algorithm for nonlinear approximation in high dimensional signal spaces. In this paper, different learning scenario of one and two dimensional data series with different distributions are investigated for simulation and further noise is inputted to data distribution for making different disordered distribution in time series data and for evaluation of algorithm in locality prediction of nonlinearity. Then, the performance of this algorithm is simulated and also when the distribution of data is high or when the number of data is less the sensitivity of this approach to data distribution and influence of important parameter of local validity in this algorithm with different data distribution is explained.

Keywords: local nonlinear estimation, LWPR algorithm, online training method, locally weighted projection regression method

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Authors: Welawat Tienpratarn, Chaiyaporn Yuksen, Rungrawin Promkul, Chetsadakon Jenpanitpong, Pajit Bunta, Suthap Jaiboon

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Supraventricular tachycardia (SVT) is an abnormally fast atrial tachycardia characterized by narrow (≤ 120 ms) and constant QRS. Adenosine was the drug of choice; the first dose was 6 mg. It can be repeated with the second and third doses of 12 mg, with greater than 90% success. The study found that patients observed at 4 hours after normal sinus rhythm was no recurrence within 24 hours. The objective of this study was to investigate the factors that influence the recurrence of SVT after adenosine in the emergency department (ED). The study was conducted retrospectively exploratory model, prognostic study at the Emergency Department (ED) in Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, a university-affiliated super tertiary care hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. The study was conducted for ten years period between 2010 and 2020. The inclusion criteria were age > 15 years, visiting the ED with SVT, and treating with adenosine. Those patients were recorded with the recurrence SVT in ED. The multivariable logistic regression model developed the predictive model and prediction score for recurrence PSVT. 264 patients met the study criteria. Of those, 24 patients (10%) had recurrence PSVT. Five independent factors were predictive of recurrence PSVT. There was age>65 years, heart rate (after adenosine) > 100 per min, structural heart disease, and dose of adenosine. The clinical risk score to predict recurrence PSVT is developed accuracy 74.41%. The score of >6 had the likelihood ratio of recurrence PSVT by 5.71 times. The clinical predictive score of > 6 was associated with recurrence PSVT in ED.

Keywords: supraventricular tachycardia, recurrance, emergency department, adenosine

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Authors: Tamirat Solomon, Tadesse Faltamo, Belete Limani

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This study was conducted on the mountain Damota of Wolaita to assess the abundance and spatial distribution of two locally important indigenous medicinal plants on the mountain landscape. A total of 130 plots measuring 20x20m were established along eight systematically laid transect lines. In each plot, the abundance and distribution of Hagenia abyssinica (tree) and Pentas schiperiana Vatke (shrub) were evaluated. The abundance and distribution of H. abyssinica were evaluated by measuring height and DBH for mature trees and counting seedlings and saplings, whereas the P. schiperiana Vatke was assessed for its abundance and distribution by counting in each plot. In the entire study plots, a total of 485 H. abyssinica and 760 P. schiperiana vatake were recorded. It was observed that the distribution of the species increased while the altitude increased and the highest abundance of the species was recorded at an altitude range between 2332 and 2661m.a.s.l. However, at the altitudes below 2320 m.a.s.l., the species distributions and abundance was decreased, indicating either the ecological preference of the species or the extraction of the local community surrounding the mountain influenced the species. On average, only 28 seedlings/ha of H. abyssinica and 146/ha of P. schiperiana vatke were recorded in the study areas showing the tendency of decline in the abundance and distribution of both species. Finally, we recommend management intervention for the socially important species which are under threat on the mountain landscape.

Keywords: indigenous medicinal plants, H.abyssinic, P. schiperiana, distribution, abundance, socio-economic importance

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang, Georgianna Duarte

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The social problems of early adolescents in Northeast China were examined with the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). In this study, the data consisted of 2532 early adolescents. The relevant variables such as sports activities, hobbies, chores and the number of close friends, as independent variables have been included in this study. The stratified sampling method was used to collect data from 2532 participants. The analysis results indicated that sports activities, hobbies, chores and the number of close friends, as predictors can be used in a predictive model, which significantly predict the social problem T-score.

Keywords: social problems, ASEBA, early adolescents, predictive Model

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Authors: Luan Trong Nguyen, M. Azizur Rahman, Yusuke Tamenori, Toshihiro Yoshimura, Nozomu Iwasaki, Hiroshi Hasegawa

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This study investigated the distribution of magnesium (Mg), phosphorus (P), sulfur (S) and strontium (Sr) using micro X-ray fluorescence (µ-XRF) along the annual growth rings in the skeleton of Japanese red coral Paracorallium japonicum. The Mg, P and S distribution in µ-XRF mapping images correspond to the dark and light bands along the annual growth rings observed in microscopic images of the coral skeleton. The µ-XRF mapping data showed a positive correlation (r = 0.6) between P and S distribution in the coral skeleton. A contrasting distribution pattern of S and Mg along the axial skeleton of P. japonicum indicates a weak negative correlation (r = -0.2) between these two trace elements. The distribution pattern of S, P and Mg reveals linkage between their distributions and the formation of dark/light bands along the annual growth rings in the axial skeleton of P. japonicum. Sulfur and P were distributed in the organic matrix rich dark bands, while Mg was distributed in the light bands of the annual growth rings.

Keywords: µ-XRF, trace element, precious coral, Paracorallium japonicum

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Authors: Ashish Dhamaniya, Satish Chandra

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Speed and traffic volume data are collected on different sections of four lane and six lane roads in three metropolitan cities in India. Speed data are analyzed to fit the statistical distribution to individual vehicle speed data and all vehicles speed data. It is noted that speed data of individual vehicle generally follows a normal distribution but speed data of all vehicle combined at a section of urban road may or may not follow the normal distribution depending upon the composition of traffic stream. A new term Speed Spread Ratio (SSR) is introduced in this paper which is the ratio of difference in 85^th and 50^th percentile speed to the difference in 50^th and 15^th percentile speed. If SSR is unity then speed data are truly normally distributed. It is noted that on six lane urban roads, speed data follow a normal distribution only when SSR is in the range of 0.86 – 1.11. The range of SSR is validated on four lane roads also.

Keywords: normal distribution, percentile speed, speed spread ratio, traffic volume

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Authors: Yifu Ding, Vijay Avinash, Malcolm McCulloch

Abstract:

As the proliferation of decentralized energy systems, the UK power system allows small-scale entities such as microgrids (MGs) to tender multiple energy services including energy arbitrage and frequency responses (FRs). However, its operation requires the balance between the uncertain renewable generations and loads in real-time and has to fulfill their provision requirements of contract services continuously during the time window agreed, otherwise it will be penalized for the under-delivered provision. To hedge against risks due to uncertainties and maximize the economic benefits, we propose a stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) framework to optimize its operation for the multi-service provision. Distinguished from previous works, we include a detailed economic-degradation model of the lithium-ion battery to quantify the costs of different service provisions, as well as accurately describe the changing dynamics of the battery. Considering a branch of load and generation scenarios and the battery aging, we formulate a risk-averse cost function using conditional value at risk (CVaR). It aims to achieve the maximum expected net revenue and avoids severe losses. The framework will be performed on a case study of a PV-battery grid-tied microgrid in the UK with real-life data. To highlight its performance, the framework will be compared with the case without the degradation model and the deterministic formulation.

Keywords: model predictive control (MPC), battery degradation, frequency response, microgrids

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Ayoub Moufid, Najib Bennis, Soumia El Hani

Abstract:

The objective of greenhouse climate control is to improve the culture development and to minimize the production costs. A greenhouse is an open system to external environment and the challenge is to regulate the internal climate despite the strong meteorological disturbances. The internal state of greenhouse considered in this work is defined by too relevant and coupled variables, namely inside temperature and hygrometry. These two variables are chosen to describe the internal state of greenhouses due to their importance in the development of plants and their sensitivity to external climatic conditions, sources of weather disturbances. A multivariable model is proposed and validated by considering a greenhouse as black-box system and the least square method is applied to parameters identification basing on collected experimental measures. To regulate the internal climate, we propose a Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme. This one considers the measured meteorological disturbances and the physical and operational constraints on the control and state variables. A successful feasibility study of the proposed controller is presented, and simulation results show good performances despite the high interaction between internal and external variables and the strong external meteorological disturbances. The inside temperature and hygrometry are tracking nearly the desired trajectories. A comparison study with an On/Off control applied to the same greenhouse confirms the efficiency of the MPC approach to inside climate control.

Keywords: climate control, constraints, identification, greenhouse, model predictive control, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 183

Authors: Ehan Sabah Shukri, Wirachman Wisnoe

Abstract:

Temperature distribution investigation in a conical diffuser fitted with helical screw-tape with and without center-rod is studied numerically. A helical screw-tape is inserted in the diffuser to create swirl flow that helps to enhance the temperature distribution rate with inlet Reynolds number 4.3 x 104. Three pitch lengths ratios (Y/L = 0.153, 0.23 and 0.307) for the helical screw-tape with and without center-rod are simulated and compared. The geometry of the conical diffuser and the inlet condition for both arrangements are kept constant. Numerical findings show that the helical screw-tape inserts without center-rod perform significantly better than the helical tape inserts with center-rod in the conical diffuser.

Keywords: diffuser, temperature distribution, CFD, pitch ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 383

Authors: Tania Vasquez Mata, Luis A. Herrera, Cristian Arriaga Canon

Abstract:

Background: Locally advanced breast cancer of the luminal B phenotype, poses challenges due to its variable response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. A predictive biomarker is needed to identify patients who will not respond to treatment, allowing for alternative therapies. This study aims to validate the use of the lncRNA GATA3-AS1, as a predictive biomarker using RNA in situ hybridization. Research aim: The aim of this study is to determine if GATA3-AS1 can serve as a biomarker for resistance to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with locally advanced luminal B breast cancer. Methodology: The study utilizes RNA in situ hybridization with predesigned probes for GATA3-AS1 on Formalin-Fixed Paraffin-Embedded tissue sections. The samples underwent pretreatment and protease treatment to enable probe penetration. Chromogenic detection and signal evaluation were performed using specific criteria. Findings: Patients who did not respond to neoadjuvant chemotherapy showed a 3+ score for GATA3-AS1, while those who had a complete response had a 1+ score. Theoretical importance: This study demonstrates the potential clinical utility of GATA3-AS1 as a biomarker for resistance to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Identifying non-responders early on can help avoid unnecessary treatment and explore alternative therapy options. Data collection and analysis procedures: Tissue samples from patients with locally advanced luminal B breast cancer were collected and processed using RNA in situ hybridization. Signal evaluation was conducted under a microscope, and scoring was based on specific criteria. Questions addressed: Can GATA3-AS1 serve as a predictive biomarker for neoadjuvant chemotherapy response in locally advanced luminal B breast cancer? Conclusion: The lncRNA GATA3-AS1 can be used as a biomarker for resistance to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with locally advanced luminal B breast cancer. Its identification through RNA in situ hybridization of tissue obtained from the initial biopsy can aid in treatment decision-making.

Keywords: biomarkers, breast neoplasms, genetics, neoadjuvant therapy, tumor

Procedia PDF Downloads 33