Search results for: post model selection

Authors: Rachel Ashwell, Sally Millett

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Introduction: Adequate post-operative pain relief is a key priority in the delivery of caesarean sections. This improves patient experience, reduces morbidity and enables optimal mother-infant interaction. Recommendations outlined in the NICE guidelines for caesarean section (CS) include offering peri-operative intrathecal/epidural diamorphine and post-operative opioid analgesics; offering non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) unless contraindicated and taking hourly observations for 12 hours following intrathecal diamorphine. Method: This audit assessed the provision of post-CS analgesia in 29 women over a two-week period. Indicators used were the use of intrathecal/epidural opioids, use of post-operative opioids and NSAIDs, frequency of observations and patient satisfaction with pain management on post-operative days 1 and 2. Results: All women received intrathecal/epidural diamorphine, 97% were prescribed post-operative opioids and all were prescribed NSAIDs unless contraindicated. Hourly observations were not maintained for 12 hours following intrathecal diamorphine. 97% of women were satisfied with their pain management on post-operative day 1 whereas only 75% were satisfied on day 2. Discussion: This service meets the proposed standards for the provision of post-operative analgesia, achieving high levels of patient satisfaction 1 day after CS. However, patient satisfaction levels are significantly lower on post-operative day 2, which may be due to reduced frequency of observations. The lack of an official audit standard for patient satisfaction on postoperative day 2 may result in reduced incentive to prioritise pain management at this stage.

Keywords: Caesarean section, analgesia, postoperative care, patient satisfaction

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Authors: Dua K. S. Y. Klaas, Monzur A. Imteaz, Ika Sudiayem, Elkan M. E. Klaas, Eldav C. M. Klaas

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Properly selecting the most suitable and effective geostatistics method in the parameterization step of groundwater modeling is critical to attain a satisfactory model. In this paper, two geostatistics methods, i.e., Grid-Based Pilot Point (GB-PP) and Head-Zonation Based Pilot Point (HZB-PP) methods, were applied in an eogenetic karst catchment and compared using as model performances and computation time the criteria. Overall, the results show that appropriate selection of method is substantial in the parameterization of physically-based groundwater models, as it influences both the accuracy and simulation times. It was found that GB-PP method performed comparably superior to HZB-PP method. However, reflecting its model performances, HZB-PP method is promising for further application in groundwater modeling.

Keywords: groundwater model, geostatistics, pilot point, parameterization step

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Authors: Michael Campbell, Malaz Elsaddig, Kevin Jones

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Background: Despite encouraging progress, global maternal mortality has remained stubbornly high since the declaration of the Millennium development goals. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for well over half of maternal deaths with Post-Partum Haemorrhage (PPH) being the lead cause. ‘In house’ simulation training delivered by local doctors may be a sustainable approach for improving emergency obstetric care. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of a Train-the-Trainer (TtT) model in a rural Ugandan hospital to ascertain whether it can feasibly improve practitioners’ management of PPH. Methods: Three Ugandan doctors underwent a training course to enable them to design and deliver simulation training. These doctors used MamaNatalie® models to simulate PPH scenarios for midwives, nurses and medical students. The main outcome was improvement in participants’ knowledge and confidence, assessed using self-reported scores on a 10-point scale. Results: The TtT model produced significant improvements in the confidence and knowledge scores of the ten participants. The mean confidence score rose significantly (p=0.0005) from 6.4 to 8.6 following the simulation training. There was also a significant increase in the mean knowledge score from 7.2 to 9.0 (p=0.04). Medical students demonstrated the greatest overall increase in confidence scores whilst increases in knowledge scores were largest amongst nurses. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that a TtT model can be used in a low resource setting to improve healthcare professionals’ confidence and knowledge in managing obstetric emergencies. This Train-the-Trainer model represents a sustainable approach to addressing skill deficits in low resource settings. We believe that its expansion across healthcare institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa will help to reduce the region’s high maternal mortality rate and step closer to achieving the ambitions of the Millennium development goals.

Keywords: low resource setting, post-partum haemorrhage, simulation training, train the trainer

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Authors: Sourabh Joshi, Geetinder Kaur, Sarabjit Kaur, Gulwatanpreet Singh, Geetika Mannan

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In this paper, we have use an algorithm that able to obtain an optimal solution to travelling salesman problem from a huge search space, quickly. This algorithm is based upon the ant colony optimization technique and employees roulette wheel selection mechanism. To illustrate it more clearly, a program has been implemented which is based upon this algorithm, that presents the changing process of route iteration in a more intuitive way. In the event, we had find the optimal path between hundred cities and also calculate the distance between two cities.

Keywords: ant colony, optimization, travelling salesman problem, roulette wheel selection

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Authors: Kgolagano Mpejane

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The study applies a New Institutional Economics (NIE) analytical framework to trade in developing economies by assessing the impacts of institutional quality and institutional quality distance on agricultural trade using a panel data of 15 Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries from the years 1991-2010. The issue of institutions on agricultural trade has not been accorded the necessary attention in the literature, particularly in developing economies. Therefore, the paper empirically tests the gravity model of international trade by measuring the impact of political, economic and legal institutions on intra SADC agricultural trade. The gravity model is noted for its exploratory power and strong theoretical foundation. However, the model has statistical shortcomings in dealing with zero trade values and heteroscedasticity residuals leading to biased results. Therefore, this study employs a two stage Heckman selection model with a Probit equation to estimate the influence of institutions on agricultural trade. The selection stages include the inverse Mills ratio to account for the variable bias of the gravity model. The Heckman model accounts for zero trade values and is robust in the presence of heteroscedasticity. The empirical results of the study support the NIE theory premise that institutions matter in trade. The results demonstrate that institutions determine bilateral agricultural trade on different margins with political institutions having positive and significant influence on bilateral agricultural trade flows within the SADC region. Legal and economic institutions have significant and negative effects on SADC trade. Furthermore, the results of this study confirm that institutional quality distance influences agricultural trade. Legal and political institutional distance have a positive and significant influence on bilateral agricultural trade while the influence of economic, institutional quality is negative and insignificant. The results imply that nontrade barriers, in the form of institutional quality and institutional quality distance, are significant factors limiting intra SADC agricultural trade. Therefore, gains from intra SADC agricultural trade can be attained through the improvement of institutions within the region.

Keywords: agricultural trade, institutions, gravity model, SADC

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Authors: Abdinasir Mohamed, Ashraf El-Hamalawi, Steven Yeomans, Matthew Frost, Andy Connell

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The evaluation and selection of appropriate software solutions to meet with an organisation’s inherent business requirements can be a problematic software engineering process that if done incorrectly can have a significant, costly and adverse effect on the business and its processes. The aim of this paper is to show the process and evaluation criteria followed to select the right engineering solution for the identified business requirement. The research adopted an action research method within an organisation in the oil and gas industry, which required a solution suitable for conducting stress analysis for soil-pipeline interaction analysis (SPIA). Through the use of the presented software selection and evaluation approach, to capture and measure key requirements, it was possible to determine a suitable software for the organisation. This paper investigates methodologies for selecting software packages, software evaluation techniques, and software evaluation criteria in evaluating software packages before providing an explanation of the developed methodology adopted. The key findings of the study are: (1) that there is a need to create a framework for software selection methodologies, (2) there are no universal selection criteria in the engineering industry, and (3) there is a need to validate the findings by creating an application based on the evaluation technique and evaluation criteria for selecting software packages for the engineering industry. The findings of the study are offered to support organisations in the oil and gas sector improve software selection methodologies for SPIA.

Keywords: software evaluation, end user programs, soil pipeline analysis, software selection

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Authors: Yuanjin Liu

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Retirement withdrawal strategies are very important to minimize the probability of ruin in retirement. The ruin probability is modeled as a function of initial withdrawal age, gender, asset allocation, inflation rate, and initial withdrawal rate. The ruin probability is obtained based on the 2019 period life table for the Social Security, IRS Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) Worksheets, US historical bond and equity returns, and inflation rates using simulation. Several popular machine learning algorithms of the generalized additive model, random forest, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural network are built. The model validation and selection are based on the test errors using hyperparameter tuning and train-test split. The optimal model is recommended for retirees to monitor the ruin probability. The optimal withdrawal strategy can be obtained based on the optimal predictive model.

Keywords: ruin probability, retirement withdrawal strategies, predictive models, optimal model

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Authors: Mohammad Shams Esfand Abadi, Mehrdad Zalaghi, Reza ebrahimpour

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In this paper, we propose a sign adaptive filter algorithm with the ability of dynamic selection of subband filters which leads to low computational complexity compared with conventional sign subband adaptive filter (SSAF) algorithm. Dynamic selection criterion is based on largest reduction of the mean square deviation at each adaption. We demonstrate that this simple proposed algorithm has the same performance of the conventional SSAF and somewhat faster than it. In the presence of impulsive interferences robustness of the simple proposed algorithm as well as the conventional SSAF and outperform the conventional normalized subband adaptive filter (NSAF) algorithm. Therefore, it is preferred for environments under impulsive interferences. Simulation results are presented to verify these above considerations very well have been achieved.

Keywords: acoustic echo cancellation (AEC), normalized subband adaptive filter (NSAF), dynamic selection subband adaptive filter (DS-NSAF), sign subband adaptive filter (SSAF), impulsive noise, robust filtering

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Authors: Sedigheh Zarei

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The aim of this research is to identify the key factors in shipping company’s port selection in order to providing their requirement. To identify and rank factors that are play the main role in selecting port for providing the ship supplies. At the first step, Data were collected via Semi-structured interviews, The aim was to generate knowledge on how shipping company select the port and suppliers for providing their needs. 37 port selection factors were chosen from the previous researches and field interviews and have been categorized into two groups of port's factor and the factors of services of suppliers companies. The current study adopts a questionnaire survey to the main shipping companies' operators in Iran. Their responses reveal that level of services of supplying companies and customs rules play the important role in selecting the ports. Our findings could affect decisions made by port authorities to consider that supporting the privet sections for ship chandelling business could have the best result in attracting ships.

Keywords: ship supplier, port selection, ship chandler, provision

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Authors: Tigabu Dagne Akal

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While advances in computer and communications technology have made the network ubiquitous, they have also rendered networked systems vulnerable to malicious attacks devised from a distance. These attacks or intrusions start with attackers infiltrating a network through a vulnerable host and then launching further attacks on the local network or Intranet. Nowadays, system administrators and network professionals can attempt to prevent such attacks by developing intrusion detection tools and systems using data mining technology. In this study, the experiments were conducted following the Knowledge Discovery in Database Process Model. The Knowledge Discovery in Database Process Model starts from selection of the datasets. The dataset used in this study has been taken from Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory. After taking the data, it has been pre-processed. The major pre-processing activities include fill in missed values, remove outliers; resolve inconsistencies, integration of data that contains both labelled and unlabelled datasets, dimensionality reduction, size reduction and data transformation activity like discretization tasks were done for this study. A total of 21,533 intrusion records are used for training the models. For validating the performance of the selected model a separate 3,397 records are used as a testing set. For building a predictive model for intrusion detection J48 decision tree and the Naïve Bayes algorithms have been tested as a classification approach for both with and without feature selection approaches. The model that was created using 10-fold cross validation using the J48 decision tree algorithm with the default parameter values showed the best classification accuracy. The model has a prediction accuracy of 96.11% on the training datasets and 93.2% on the test dataset to classify the new instances as normal, DOS, U2R, R2L and probe classes. The findings of this study have shown that the data mining methods generates interesting rules that are crucial for intrusion detection and prevention in the networking industry. Future research directions are forwarded to come up an applicable system in the area of the study.

Keywords: intrusion detection, data mining, computer science, data mining

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Authors: Sharmistha Chowdhury, Shuva Chowdhury

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Buying-selling new as well as second-hand goods like tools, furniture, household, electronics, clothing, baby stuff, vehicles, and hobbies through the Facebook marketplace has become a new paradigm for c2c sellers. This phenomenon encourages and empowers decentralised home-oriented sellers. This study adopts Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) to explain consumer behaviour on Facebook Marketplace (FM). ELM suggests that consumers process information through the central and peripheral routes, which eventually shape their attitudes towards posts. The central route focuses on information quality, and the peripheral route focuses on cues. Sellers’ FM posts usually include product features, prices, conditions, pictures, and pick-up location. This study uses information relevance and accuracy as central route factors. The post’s attractiveness represents cues and creates positive or negative associations with the product. A post with remarkable pictures increases the attractiveness of the post. So, post aesthetics is used as a peripheral route factor. People influenced via the central or peripheral route forms an attitude that includes multiple processes – response and purchase intention. People respond to FM posts through save, share and chat. Purchase intention reflects a positive image of the product and higher purchase intention. This study proposes trust on sellers as a moderator to test the strength of its influence on consumer attitudes and behaviour. Trust on sellers is assessed whether sellers have badges or not. A sample questionnaire will be developed and distributed among a group of random FM sellers who are selling vehicles on this platform to conduct the study. The chosen product of this study is the vehicle, a high-value purchase item. High-value purchase requires consumers to consider forming their attitude without any sign of impulsiveness seriously. Hence, vehicles are the perfect choice to test the strength of consumers attitudes and behaviour. The findings of the study add to the elaboration likelihood model and online second-hand marketplace literature.

Keywords: consumer behaviour, elaboration likelihood model, facebook marketplace, c2c marketing

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Authors: Sergey Chirun

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Using of a combination of institutional analysis and network access has allowed the author to identify the characteristics of the informal institutions of regional political power and political regimes. According to the author, ‘field’ of activity of post-Soviet regimes, formed under the influence of informal institutions, often contradicts democratic institutional regional changes which are aimed at creating of a legal-rational type of political domination and balanced model of separation of powers. This leads to the gap between the formal structure of institutions and the real nature of power, predetermining the specific character of the existing political regimes.

Keywords: authoritarianism, institutions, political regime, social networks, transformation

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Authors: Miho Yamashita

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In recent years, there have been attempts to introduce Machine Translation (MT) into foreign language teaching, especially in writing instructions. This is because the performance of neural machine translation has improved dramatically since 2016, and some university instructors started to introduce MT translations to their students as a "good model" to learn from. However, MT is still not perfect, and there are many incorrect translations. In order to translate the intended text into a foreign language, it is necessary to edit the original manuscript written in the native language (pre-edit) and revise the translated foreign language text (post-edit). The latter is considered especially difficult for users without a high proficiency level of foreign language. Therefore, the author allowed her students to use MT in her writing class in one of the private universities in Japan and investigated 1) how groups of students with different English proficiency levels revised MT translations when translating Japanese manuscripts into English and 2) whether the post-edit process differed when the students revised alone or in pairs. The results showed that in 1), certain non-post-edited grammatical errors were found regardless of their proficiency levels, indicating the need for teacher intervention, and in 2), more appropriate corrections were found in pairs, and their frequent use of a dictionary was also observed. In this presentation, the author will discuss how MT writing instruction can be integrated effectively in an aim to achieve multimodal foreign language education.

Keywords: machine translation, writing instruction, pre-edit, post-edit

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Authors: Lu Si, Jie Yu, Shasha Li, Jun Ma, Lei Luo, Qingbo Wu, Yongqi Ma, Zhengji Liu

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Instance selection (IS) technique is used to reduce the data size to improve the performance of data mining methods. Recently, to process very large data set, several proposed methods divide the training set into some disjoint subsets and apply IS algorithms independently to each subset. In this paper, we analyze the limitation of these methods and give our viewpoint about how to divide and conquer in IS procedure. Then, based on fast condensed nearest neighbor (FCNN) rule, we propose a large data sets instance selection method with MapReduce framework. Besides ensuring the prediction accuracy and reduction rate, it has two desirable properties: First, it reduces the work load in the aggregation node; Second and most important, it produces the same result with the sequential version, which other parallel methods cannot achieve. We evaluate the performance of FCNN-MR on one small data set and two large data sets. The experimental results show that it is effective and practical.

Keywords: instance selection, data reduction, MapReduce, kNN

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Authors: Mohamed Alimoussa, Alice Porebski, Nicolas Vandenbroucke, Rachid Oulad Haj Thami, Sana El Fkihi

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Color and texture are highly discriminant visual cues that provide an essential information in many types of images. Color texture representation and classification is therefore one of the most challenging problems in computer vision and image processing applications. Color textures can be represented in different color spaces by using multiple image descriptors which generate a high dimensional set of texture features. In order to reduce the dimensionality of the feature set, feature selection techniques can be used. The goal of feature selection is to find a relevant subset from an original feature space that can improve the accuracy and efficiency of a classification algorithm. Traditionally, feature selection is focused on removing irrelevant features, neglecting the possible redundancy between relevant ones. This is why some feature selection approaches prefer to use feature clustering analysis to aid and guide the search. These techniques can be divided into two categories. i) Feature clustering-based ranking algorithm uses feature clustering as an analysis that comes before feature ranking. Indeed, after dividing the feature set into groups, these approaches perform a feature ranking in order to select the most discriminant feature of each group. ii) Feature clustering-based subset search algorithms can use feature clustering following one of three strategies; as an initial step that comes before the search, binded and combined with the search or as the search alternative and replacement. In this paper, we propose a new feature clustering-based sequential selection approach for the purpose of color texture representation and classification. Our approach is a three step algorithm. First, irrelevant features are removed from the feature set thanks to a class-correlation measure. Then, introducing a new automatic feature clustering algorithm, the feature set is divided into several feature clusters. Finally, a sequential search algorithm, based on a filter model and a separability measure, builds a relevant and non redundant feature subset: at each step, a feature is selected and features of the same cluster are removed and thus not considered thereafter. This allows to significantly speed up the selection process since large number of redundant features are eliminated at each step. The proposed algorithm uses the clustering algorithm binded and combined with the search. Experiments using a combination of two well known texture descriptors, namely Haralick features extracted from Reduced Size Chromatic Co-occurence Matrices (RSCCMs) and features extracted from Local Binary patterns (LBP) image histograms, on five color texture data sets, Outex, NewBarktex, Parquet, Stex and USPtex demonstrate the efficiency of our method compared to seven of the state of the art methods in terms of accuracy and computation time.

Keywords: feature selection, color texture classification, feature clustering, color LBP, chromatic cooccurrence matrix

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Authors: Saimir Heta, Ilma Robo, Vera Ostreni, Glorja Demika, Sonila Kapaj

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Suturing, as a procedure of joining the lips of the lembo or wound, is important at the beginning of the healing process. This procedure helps to pass the healing process from the procedure per secundam to the stages of healing per primam, thus logically reducing the healing time of the wound. The element that remains in the individual selection of the dentist applying the suture is the selection of the suture material. At a moment when some types of sutures are offered for use, some elements should be considered in the selection of the suture depending on the constituent material, the cross-section of the suture elements, and whether it collects bacteria in the "pits" created by the material. The presence of bacteria is a source of infection and possible delay in the healing of the sutured wound. Conclusion: The marketing of suture types offers a variety of materials, from which the selection of the most suitable suture type for specific application cases is a personal indication of the dental surgeon, based on professional experiences and knowledge in the field.

Keywords: suture, suture material, types of sutures, clinical application

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Authors: Jochen Edmund Kerschenbauer, Roman Salinger, Daniel Strametz

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Insufficient informal communication systems can lead to the first crisis (‘Crisis of Leadership’) for start-ups. Management Control Systems (MCS) are one way for high-technology start-ups to successfully overcome these problems. So far the literature has investigated the incubation of a start-up, but focused less on the post-incubation stage. This paper focuses on the use of MCS in post-incubation and, if failed start-ups agree, on how MCS are used. We conducted 14 semi-structured interviews for this purpose, to obtain our results. The overall conclusion is that the majority of the companies were closed down due to a combination of strategic, operative and financial reasons.

Keywords: closed down, high-technology, incubation, levers of control, management control systems, post-incubation, start-ups

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Authors: Mustafa Alshawaqfeh, Bilal Wajidy, Echin Serpedin, Jan Suchodolski

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Inflammatory Bowel disease (IBD) is a disease of the colon with characteristic inflammation. Clinically IBD is detected using laboratory tests (blood and stool), radiology tests (imaging using CT, MRI), capsule endoscopy and endoscopy. There are two variants of IBD referred to as Ulcerative Colitis (UC) and Crohn’s disease. This study employs a hybrid feature selection method that combines a correlation-based variable ranking approach with exhaustive search wrapper methods in order to find potential biomarkers for UC. The proposed biomarkers presented accurate discriminatory power thereby identifying themselves to be possible ingredients to UC therapeutics.

Keywords: ulcerative colitis, biomarker detection, feature selection, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD)

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Authors: Nazira Kakulia, Tsotne Zhghenti

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The institutional development is one of the actual topics in economics science. New trends and directions of institutional development mostly depend on its structure and framework. Transformation of institutions is an important problem for every economy, especially for developing countries. The first research goal is to determine the importance and interactions between different institutions in Georgia. Using World Governance Indicators and Economic Freedom indexes it can be calculated the size for each institutional group. The second aim of this research is to evaluate Georgian institutional backwardness in comparison to other post-communist economies. We use statistical and econometric methods to evaluate the difference between the levels of institutional development in Georgia and in leading post-communist economies. Within the scope of this research, major findings are coefficients which are an assessment of their deviation (i.e. lag) of institutional indicators between Georgia and leading post-communist country which should be compared. The last part of the article includes analysis around the selected coefficients.

Keywords: post-communist transition, institutions, economic growth, institutional development

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Authors: Kofi Kyei, Kenchi Matsui

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Loss of vegetable products has been a major constraint in the post-harvest chain. Sources of post-harvest loss in the vegetable industry start from the time of harvesting to its handling and at the various market centers. Identifying vegetable farmers’ perceptions about post-harvest loss sources is one way of addressing this issue. In this paper, we assessed farmers’ perceptions about sources of post-harvest losses in the Ashanti Region of Ghana. We also identified the factors that influence their perceptions. To clearly understand farmers’ perceptions, we selected Sekyere-Kumawu District in the Ashanti Region. Sekyere-Kumawu District is one of the major producers of vegetables in the Region. Based on a questionnaire survey, 100 vegetable farmers growing tomato, pepper, okra, cabbage, and garden egg were purposely selected from five communities in Sekyere-Kumawu District. For farmers’ perceptions, the five points Likert scale was employed. On a scale from 1 (no loss) to 5 (extremely high loss), we processed the scores for each vegetable harvest. To clarify factors influencing farmers’ perceptions, the Pearson Correlation analysis was used. Our findings revealed that farmers perceive post-harvest loss by pest infestation as the most extreme loss. However, vegetable farmers did not perceive loss during transportation as a serious source of post-harvest loss. The Pearson Correlation analysis results further revealed that farmers’ age, gender, level of education, and years of experience had an influence on their perceptions. This paper then discusses some recommendations to minimize the post-harvest loss in the region.

Keywords: Ashanti Region, pest infestation, post-harvest loss, vegetable farmers

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Authors: Z. Adnan, M. M. Habib

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The laboratory tests for measuring the effects of small strain to the shear strength and maximum stiffness development of post-cyclic degradation of hemic peat are reviewed in this paper. A series of laboratory testing has been conducted to fulfil the objective of this research to study the post-cyclic behaviour of peat soil and focuses on the small strain characteristics. For this purpose, a number of strain-controlled static, cyclic and post-cyclic triaxial tests were carried out in undrained condition on hemic peat soil. The shear strength and maximum stiffness of hemic peat are evaluated immediately after post-cyclic monotonic testing. There are two soil samples taken from West Johor and East Malaysia peat soil. Based on these laboratories and field testing data, it was found that the shear strength and maximum stiffness of peat soil decreased in post-cyclic monotonic loading than its initial shear strength and stiffness. In particular, degradation in shear strength and stiffness is more sensitive for peat soil due to fragile and uniform fibre structures. Shear strength of peat soil, τ_max = 12.53 kPa (Beaufort peat, BFpt) and 36.61 kPa (Parit Nipah peat, PNpt) decreased than its initial 58.46 kPa and 91.67 kPa. The maximum stiffness, G_max = 0.23 and 0.25 decreased markedly with post-cyclic, G_max = 0.04 and 0.09. Simple correlations between the G_max and the τ_max effects due to small strain, ε = 0.1, the G_max values for post-cyclic are relatively low compared to its initial G_max. As a consequence, the reported values and patterns of both the West Johor and East Malaysia peat soil are generally the same.

Keywords: post-cyclic, strain, maximum stiffness, shear strength

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Authors: Huseyin Guler, Cigdem Kosar

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The aim of this study is to propose Bridge estimator for seasonal unit root tests. Seasonality is an important factor for many economic time series. Some variables may contain seasonal patterns and forecasts that ignore important seasonal patterns have a high variance. Therefore, it is very important to eliminate seasonality for seasonal macroeconomic data. There are some methods to eliminate the impacts of seasonality in time series. One of them is filtering the data. However, this method leads to undesired consequences in unit root tests, especially if the data is generated by a stochastic seasonal process. Another method to eliminate seasonality is using seasonal dummy variables. Some seasonal patterns may result from stationary seasonal processes, which are modelled using seasonal dummies but if there is a varying and changing seasonal pattern over time, so the seasonal process is non-stationary, deterministic seasonal dummies are inadequate to capture the seasonal process. It is not suitable to use seasonal dummies for modeling such seasonally nonstationary series. Instead of that, it is necessary to take seasonal difference if there are seasonal unit roots in the series. Different alternative methods are proposed in the literature to test seasonal unit roots, such as Dickey, Hazsa, Fuller (DHF) and Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, Yoo (HEGY) tests. HEGY test can be also used to test the seasonal unit root in different frequencies (monthly, quarterly, and semiannual). Another issue in unit root tests is the lag selection. Lagged dependent variables are added to the model in seasonal unit root tests as in the unit root tests to overcome the autocorrelation problem. In this case, it is necessary to choose the lag length and determine any deterministic components (i.e., a constant and trend) first, and then use the proper model to test for seasonal unit roots. However, this two-step procedure might lead size distortions and lack of power in seasonal unit root tests. Recent studies show that Bridge estimators are good in selecting optimal lag length while differentiating nonstationary versus stationary models for nonseasonal data. The advantage of this estimator is the elimination of the two-step nature of conventional unit root tests and this leads a gain in size and power. In this paper, the Bridge estimator is proposed to test seasonal unit roots in a HEGY model. A Monte-Carlo experiment is done to determine the efficiency of this approach and compare the size and power of this method with HEGY test. Since Bridge estimator performs well in model selection, our approach may lead to some gain in terms of size and power over HEGY test.

Keywords: bridge estimators, HEGY test, model selection, seasonal unit root

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Authors: Kostas Metaxiotis, Kostas Liagkouras

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This study presents an Expert System specially designed to be used with Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) for the solution of the portfolio selection problem. The validation of the proposed hybrid System is done by using data sets from Hang Seng 31 in Hong Kong, DAX 100 in Germany and FTSE 100 in UK. The performance of the proposed system is assessed in comparison with the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGAII). The evaluation of the performance is based on different performance metrics that evaluate both the proximity of the solutions to the Pareto front and their dispersion on it. The results show that the proposed hybrid system is efficient for the solution of this kind of problems.

Keywords: expert systems, multi-objective optimization, evolutionary algorithms, portfolio selection

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Authors: Yadavalli Venkata Sridhar

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Finalization of Substation sizing and location is an important task to be carried out by electrical designers in an oil field. Practical issues influence the selection of size and location of the source substations that feed multiple production facilities are listed. Importance of selection of appropriately rated short circuit level for 11KV switchboards and constraints pertaining to availability of manufacturers are highlighted. Without being lost in the research of absolute optimum solution, under time constraints, the importance of practical approach is brought out. Focus on identifying near optimum solutions by process of elimination of unfeasible substation locations with the support of cost figures, is emphasized through a case study.

Keywords: substation, size, location, oil field

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Authors: Asaad Alhabsi, Alyaqdan Algafri

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Aim: Reporting 83 years old man with history of left upper eyelid swelling post 4-lids blepharoplasty diagnosed based on clinical presentation and Radiological imaging with pseudoaneurysm of frontal branch of Superficial Temporal Artery post blepharoplasty. METHODS: 83 years old who presented to a Tertiary ophthalmic center with painless left upper eyelids swelling for 2 months post 4-lids blepharoplasty. Left subcutaneous, sub-brow lesion, in the supertemporal pre-septal area, large mass found and excised surgically. Then he developed recurrent larger mass twice first time treated with aspiration of blood, second time diagnosed with superficial temporal artery (STA) pseudoaneurysm of frontal branch treated with endovascular embolization. RESULTS: Pseudoaneurysm of superficial temporal artery (STA) is a rare, presenting usual post head or face trauma .literature reported few cases of such conditions post operatively, and no reported cases post blepharoplasty. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical intervention is the gold standard of treatment either directly by dissecting the aneurysmal sac and ligate both ends, or endovascular method of injecting thrombin or embolization which was done in this patient by interventional radiologist.

Keywords: superficial temporal artery, pseudoaneurysm, blepharoplasty, Oculoplasty

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Authors: Gurmeet Singh Cheema, Navjotinder Singh, Gurjinder Singh, Amardeep Singh

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Aluminium and its alloys play have excellent corrosion resistant properties, ease of fabrication and high specific strength to weight ratio. In this investigation an attempt has been made to study the effect of different post weld heat treatment methods on the mechanical and metallurgical properties of TIG welded joints of the commercial aluminium alloy. Three different methods of post weld heat treatments are, solution heat treatment, artificial aged and combination of solution heat treatment and artificial aging are given to TIG welded aluminium joints. Mechanical and metallurgical properties of as welded and post weld treated joints of the aluminium alloys was examined.

Keywords: aluminium alloys, TIG welding, post weld heat treatment

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Authors: Sneha Noble, Rahul Krishnan, Uma G., D. K. Vijaykumar

Abstract:

Breast-Cancer related Lymphedema is a major problem that affects many women. Lymphedema is the swelling that generally occurs in the arms or legs caused by the removal of or damage to lymph nodes as a part of cancer treatment. Treating it at the earliest possible stage is the best way to manage the condition and prevent it from leading to pain, recurrent infection, reduced mobility, and impaired function. So, this project aims to focus on the multi-modal approaches to identify the risks of Lymphedema in post-surgical oncology patients and prevent it at the earliest. The Kinect IR Sensor is utilized to capture the images of the body and after image processing techniques, the region of interest is obtained. Then, performing the voxelization method will provide volume measurements in pre-operative and post-operative periods in patients. The formation of a mathematical model will help in the comparison of values. Clinical pathological data of patients will be investigated to assess the factors responsible for the development of lymphedema and its risks.

Keywords: Kinect IR sensor, Lymphedema, voxelization, lymph nodes

Procedia PDF Downloads 104

Authors: W. Du, X. Wang, Jun Cao, H. F. Wang

Abstract:

Due to the randomness and uncertainty of wind energy, modern power systems integrating large-scale wind generation will be significantly impacted in terms of system performance and technical challenges. System inertia with high wind penetration is decreasing when conventional thermal generators are gradually replaced by wind turbines, which do not naturally contribute to inertia response. The power imbalance caused by wind power or demand fluctuations leads to the instability of system frequency. Accordingly, the need to attach the supplementary virtual inertia control to wind farms (WFs) strongly arises. When multi-wind farms are connected to the grid simultaneously, the selection of which critical WFs to install the virtual inertia control is greatly important to enhance the stability of system frequency. By building the small signal model of wind power systems considering frequency regulation, the installation locations are identified by the geometric measures of the mode observability of WFs. In addition, this paper takes the impacts of grid topology and selection of feedback control signals into consideration. Finally, simulations are conducted on a multi-wind farms power system and the results demonstrate that the designed virtual inertia control method can effectively assist the frequency regulation.

Keywords: frequency regulation, virtual inertia control, installation locations, observability, wind farms

Procedia PDF Downloads 372

Authors: Watchareeporn Chaimongkol

Abstract:

In this paper, we compare the statistical measures accuracy of composite forecasting model to estimate automobile customer demand in Thailand. A modified simple exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) forecasting model is built to estimate customer demand of passenger cars, instead of using information of historical sales data. Our model takes into account special characteristic of the Thai automobile market such as sales promotion, advertising and publicity, petrol price, and interest rate for loan. We evaluate our forecasting model by comparing forecasts with actual data using six accuracy measurements, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), geometric mean absolute error (GMAE), symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE), mean absolute scaled error (MASE), median relative absolute error (MdRAE), and geometric mean relative absolute error (GMRAE).

Keywords: composite forecasting, simple exponential smoothing model, autoregressive integrate moving average model selection, accuracy measurements

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Othoman Elsayah, Naren Gupta, Binsheng Zhang

Abstract:

The construction sector constitutes one of the most important sectors in the economy of any country. Contractor selection is a critical decision that is undertaken by client organizations and is central to the success of any construction project. Contractor selection (CS) is a process which involves investigating, screening and determining whether candidate contractors have the technical and financial capability to be accepted to formally tender for construction work. The process should be conducted prior to the award of contract, characterized by many factors such as: contactor’s skills, experience on similar projects, track- record in the industry, and financial stability. However, this paper evaluates the current state of knowledge in relation to contractor selection process and demonstrates the findings from the analysis of the data collected from the Delphi questionnaire survey. The survey was conducted with a group of 12 experts working in the Libyan construction industry (LCI). The paper starts by briefly explaining the general outline of the questionnaire including the survey participation rate, the different fields the experts came from, and the business titles of the participants. Then, the paper describes the tests used to determine when the experts had reached consensus. The paper is based on research which aims to develop rank contractor selection criteria with specific application to make construction projects in the Libyan context. The findings of this study will be utilized to establish the scope of work that will be used as part of a PhD research.

Keywords: contractor selection, Libyan construction industry, decision experts, Delphi technique

Procedia PDF Downloads 301