Search results for: mountain hazard

Authors: Mohammed Sghir Taleb

Abstract:

Located at the northwest corner of the African continent between 21 ° and 36 ° north latitude and between the 1st and the 17th degree of west longitude, Morocco, with a total area of 715,000 km2, enjoys a privileged position with a coastline of 3 446 km long opening to the Mediterranean and the Atlantic Ocean. Its privileged location with a double coastline and its diverse mountain with four major mountain ranges: the Rif, Middle Atlas, High Atlas and Anti Atlas, with altitudes exceeding 2000 m in the Rif, 3000 m in the Middle Atlas and 4000 m in the High Atlas. Morocco is characterized by an important forest genetic diversity represented by a rich and varied flora and many ecosystems: forest, preforest, presteppe, steppe, Sahara that spans a range of bioclimatic zones: arid, semiarid, subhumid, and humid. The vascular flora of Morocco is rich and highly diversified, with a very significant degree of endemism. Natural flora and ecosystems provide important services to populations represented by grazing, timber harvest, harvesting of medicinal and aromatic plants. This work will be focused on the Moroccan biodiversity and natural ecosystem services and on the interaction between local populations and ecosystems and on the strategies developed by Morocco for restoring and conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Keywords: morocco, biodiversity, forest ecosystems, local population

Procedia PDF Downloads 48

Authors: Nato Kutaladze, George Mikuchadze, Giorgi Sokhadze

Abstract:

Precipitation forecasts are one of the most demanding applications in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Georgia, as the whole Caucasian region, is characterized by very complex topography. The country territory is prone to flash floods and mudflows, quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at any leading time are very important for Georgia. In this study, advanced research weather forecasting model’s skill in QPF is investigated over Georgia’s territory. We have analyzed several convection parameterization and microphysical scheme combinations for different rainy episodes and heavy rainy phenomena. We estimate errors and biases in accumulated 6 h precipitation using different spatial resolution during model performance verification for 12-hour and 24-hour lead time against corresponding rain gouge observations and satellite data. Various statistical parameters have been calculated for the 8-month comparison period, and some skills of model simulation have been evaluated. Our focus is on the formation and organization of convective precipitation systems in a low-mountain region. Several problems in connection with QPF have been identified for mountain regions, which include the overestimation and underestimation of precipitation on the windward and lee side of the mountains, respectively, and a phase error in the diurnal cycle of precipitation leading to the onset of convective precipitation in model forecasts several hours too early.

Keywords: extremal dependence index, false alarm, numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Kangujam Monika, Kiranbala Devi Thokchom, Soibam Sandhyarani Devi

Abstract:

Earthquake is a major natural hazard in India. Manipur, located in the North-Eastern Region of India, is one of the most affected location in the region prone to earthquakes since it lies in an area where Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates meet and is in seismic Zone V which is the most severe intensity zone, according to IS Code. Some recent earthquakes recorded in Manipur are M 6.7 epicenter at Tamenglong (January 4, 2016), M 5.2 epicenter at Churachandpur (February 24, 2017) and most recent M 4.4 epicenter at Thoubal (June 19, 2017). In these recent earthquakes, some houses and buildings were damaged, landslides were also occurred. A field study was carried out. An overview of the various causal factors involved in triggering of earthquake in Manipur has been discussed. It is found that improper planning, poor design, negligence, structural irregularities, poor quality materials, construction of foundation without proper site soil investigation and non-implementation of remedial measures, etc., are possibly the main causal factors for damage in Manipur during earthquake. The study also suggests, though the proper design of structure and foundation along with soil investigation, ground improvement methods, use of modern techniques of construction, counseling with engineer, mass awareness, etc., might be effective solution to control the hazard in many locations. An overview on the analysis pertaining to earthquake in Manipur together with on-going detailed site specific geotechnical investigation were presented.

Keywords: Manipur, earthquake, hazard, structure, soil

Procedia PDF Downloads 184

Authors: Lormaine Anne A. Branzuela, Elysa V. Largo, Monet Concepcion M. Detras, Neil C. Concibido

Abstract:

The electricity demand is still increasing, and currently, the Philippine government is investigating the feasibility of operating the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) to address the country’s energy problem. However, the lack of process safety studies on BNPP focused on the effects of hazardous substances on the integrity of the structure, equipment, and other components, have made the plant operationalization questionable to the public. The three major nuclear power plant incidents – TMI-2, Chernobyl, and Fukushima – have made many people hesitant to include nuclear energy in the energy matrix. This study focused on the safety evaluation of possible operations of a nuclear power plant installed with a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR), which is similar to BNPP. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is one of the Process Hazard Analysis (PHA) techniques used for the identification of equipment failure modes and minimizing its consequences. Using the FMEA technique, this study was able to recognize 116 different failure modes in total. Upon computation and ranking of the risk priority number (RPN) and criticality rating (CR), it showed that failure of the reactor coolant pump due to earthquakes is the most critical failure mode. This hazard scenario could lead to a nuclear meltdown and radioactive release, as identified by the FMEA team. Safeguards and recommended risk reduction strategies to lower the RPN and CR were identified such that the effects are minimized, the likelihood of occurrence is reduced, and failure detection is improved.

Keywords: PHA, FMEA, nuclear power plant, bataan nuclear power plant

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Thomas Ruppert, Shana Jones, J. Scott Pippin

Abstract:

State and federal government agencies within the United States have recently invested substantial resources into studies of future flood risk conditions associated with climate change and sea-level rise. A review of numerous case studies has uncovered several key themes that speak to an overall incoherence within current flood risk assessment procedures in the U.S. context. First, there are substantial local differences in the quality of available information about basic infrastructure, particularly with regard to local stormwater features and essential facilities that are fundamental components of effective flood hazard planning and mitigation. Second, there can be substantial mismatch between regulatory Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) as produced by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and other 'current condition' flood assessment approaches. This is of particular concern in areas where FIRMs already seem to underestimate extant flood risk, which can only be expected to become a greater concern if future FIRMs do not appropriately account for changing climate conditions. Moreover, while there are incentives within the NFIP’s Community Rating System (CRS) to develop enhanced assessments that include future flood risk projections from climate change, the incentive structures seem to have counterintuitive implications that would tend to promote moral hazard. In particular, a technical finding of higher future risk seems to make it easier for a community to qualify for flood insurance savings, with much of these prospective savings applied to individual properties that have the most physical risk of flooding. However, there is at least some case study evidence to indicate that recognition of these issues is prompting broader discussion about the need to move beyond FIRMs as a standalone local flood planning standard. The paper concludes with approaches for developing climate adaptation and flood resilience strategies in the U.S. that move away from the social welfare model being applied through NFIP and toward more of an informed risk approach that transfers much of the investment responsibility over to individual private property owners.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, flood risk, moral hazard, sea-level rise

Procedia PDF Downloads 77

Authors: Manuela Villani, Anila Xhahysa, Christopher Brooks, Marco Pagani

Abstract:

The geological structure of Western Balkans is strongly affected by the collision between Adria microplate and the southwestern Euroasia margin, resulting in a considerably active seismic region. The Harmonization of Seismic Hazard Maps in the Western Balkan Countries Project (BSHAP) (2007-2011, 2012-2015) by NATO supported the preparation of new seismic hazard maps of the Western Balkan, but when inspecting the seismic hazard models produced later by these countries on a national scale, significant differences in design PGA values are observed in the border, for instance, North Albania-Montenegro, South Albania- Greece, etc. Considering the fact that the catalogues were unified and seismic sources were defined within BSHAP framework, obviously, the differences arise from the Ground Motion Prediction Equations selection, which are generally the component with highest impact on the seismic hazard assessment. At the time of the project, a modest database was present, namely 672 three-component records, whereas nowadays, this strong motion database has increased considerably up to 20,939 records with Mw ranging in the interval 3.7-7 and epicentral distance distribution from 0.47km to 490km. Statistical analysis of the strong motion database showed the lack of recordings in the moderate-to-large magnitude and short distance ranges; therefore, there is need to re-evaluate the Ground Motion Prediction Equation in light of the recently updated database and the new generations of GMMs. In some cases, it was observed that some events were more extensively documented in one database than the other, like the 1979 Montenegro earthquake, with a considerably larger number of records in the BSHAP Analogue SM database when compared to ESM23. Therefore, the strong motion flat-file provided from the Harmonization of Seismic Hazard Maps in the Western Balkan Countries Project was merged with the ESM23 database for the polygon studied in this project. After performing the preliminary residual analysis, the candidate GMPE-s were identified. This process was done using the GMPE performance metrics available within the SMT in the OpenQuake Platform. The Likelihood Model and Euclidean Distance Based Ranking (EDR) were used. Finally, for this study, a GMPE logic tree was selected and following the selection of candidate GMPEs, model weights were assigned using the average sample log-likelihood approach of Scherbaum.

Keywords: residual analysis, GMPE, western balkan, strong motion, openquake

Procedia PDF Downloads 44

Authors: Puran Chandra Joshi

Abstract:

The Himalaya is the newest mountain system on this earth. This highest as well as fragile mountain system is still rising up. The tectonic activities have been experienced by this entire area, so the geomorphology of the region is affected by it. As we know, geomorphology is the study of landforms and their processes on the earth surface. These landforms are very important for human beings and other creatures on this planet. Present paper traces out the geomorphological features and their significance along Dhauli Ganga river valley in the Himalaya. Study area falls in higher Himalaya, which has experienced glacial and fluvial processes. Dhauli Ganga river is a considerable tributary of river kali, which is the part of huge Gangetic system. Dhauli originates in the form of two tributaries from valley glaciers of the southern slopes of Kumaun-Tibbet water divide. The upper catchment of this river has been carved by the glacial activity. The area of investigation is a remote regionin, Kumaun Himalaya. The native people do seasonal migration due to harsh winters. In summers, they return back with their cattle. In this season, they also grow potatoes and pulses, especiallybeanson river terraces. This study is important for making policies in the entire area. Area has witnessed big landslide in the recent past. So, the present study becomes more important.

Keywords: himalaya, geomorphology, glacial, tectonics

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Laura Micheli, Majd Hijazi, Mahmoud Faytarouni

Abstract:

The damage reported by oil and gas industrial facilities revealed the utmost vulnerability of steel liquid storage tanks to seismic events. The failure of steel storage tanks may yield devastating and long-lasting consequences on built and natural environments, including the release of hazardous substances, uncontrolled fires, and soil contamination with hazardous materials. It is, therefore, fundamental to reliably predict the damage that steel liquid storage tanks will likely experience under future seismic hazard events. The seismic performance of steel liquid storage tanks is usually assessed using vulnerability curves obtained from the numerical simulation of a tank under different hazard scenarios. However, the computational demand of high-fidelity numerical simulation models, such as finite element models, makes the vulnerability assessment of liquid storage tanks time-consuming and often impractical. As a solution, this paper presents a surrogate model-based strategy for predicting seismic-induced damage in steel liquid storage tanks. In the proposed strategy, the surrogate model is leveraged to reduce the computational demand of time-consuming numerical simulations. To create the data set for training the surrogate model, field damage data from past earthquakes reconnaissance surveys and reports are collected. Features representative of steel liquid storage tank characteristics (e.g., diameter, height, liquid level, yielding stress) and seismic excitation parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, magnitude) are extracted from the field damage data. The collected data are then utilized to train a surrogate model that maps the relationship between tank characteristics, seismic hazard parameters, and seismic-induced damage via a data-driven surrogate model. Different types of surrogate algorithms, including naïve Bayes, k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, and random forest, are investigated, and results in terms of accuracy are reported. The model that yields the most accurate predictions is employed to predict future damage as a function of tank characteristics and seismic hazard intensity level. Results show that the proposed approach can be used to estimate the extent of damage in steel liquid storage tanks, where the use of data-driven surrogates represents a viable alternative to computationally expensive numerical simulation models.

Keywords: damage prediction , data-driven model, seismic performance, steel liquid storage tanks, surrogate model

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Phontip Kanlahasuth

Abstract:

This paper presents the environmental safety and occupational health risk assessment of rocket static test by assessing risk level from probability and severity and then appropriately applying the risk control measures. Before the environmental safety and occupational health measures are applied, the serious hazards level is 31%, medium level is 24% and low level is 45%. Once risk control measures are practically implemented, the serious hazard level can be diminished, medium level is 38%, low level is 45% and eliminated level is 17%. It is clearly shown that the environmental safety and occupational health measures can significantly reduce the risk level.

Keywords: rocket static test, hazard, risk, risk assessment, risk analysis, environment, safety, occupational health, acceptable risk, probability, severity, risk level

Procedia PDF Downloads 554

Authors: Amit Ghosh, Chanchal Kundu

Abstract:

Recently, the notion of past cumulative inaccuracy (CPI) measure has been proposed in the literature as a generalization of cumulative past entropy (CPE) in univariate as well as bivariate setup. In this paper, we introduce the notion of CPI of order α (alpha) and study the proposed measure for conditionally specified models of two components failed at different time instants called generalized conditional CPI (GCCPI). We provide some bounds using usual stochastic order and investigate several properties of GCCPI. The effect of monotone transformation on this proposed measure has also been examined. Furthermore, we characterize some bivariate distributions under the assumption of conditional proportional reversed hazard rate model. Moreover, the role of GCCPI in reliability modeling has also been investigated for a real-life problem.

Keywords: cumulative past inaccuracy, marginal and conditional past lifetimes, conditional proportional reversed hazard rate model, usual stochastic order

Procedia PDF Downloads 222

Authors: Abdisalam Hassan Muse, Samuel Mwalili, Oscar Ngesa

Abstract:

A generalized log-logistic distribution with variable shapes of the hazard rate was introduced and studied, extending the log-logistic distribution by adding an extra parameter to the classical distribution, leading to greater flexibility in analysing and modeling various data types. The proposed distribution has a large number of well-known lifetime special sub-models such as; Weibull, log-logistic, exponential, and Burr XII distributions. Its basic mathematical and statistical properties were derived. The method of maximum likelihood was adopted for estimating the unknown parameters of the proposed distribution, and a Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to assess the behavior of the estimators. The importance of this distribution is that its tendency to model both monotone (increasing and decreasing) and non-monotone (unimodal and bathtub shape) or reversed “bathtub” shape hazard rate functions which are quite common in survival and reliability data analysis. Furthermore, the flexibility and usefulness of the proposed distribution are illustrated in a real-life data set and compared to its sub-models; Weibull, log-logistic, and BurrXII distributions and other parametric survival distributions with 3-parmaeters; like the exponentiated Weibull distribution, the 3-parameter lognormal distribution, the 3- parameter gamma distribution, the 3-parameter Weibull distribution, and the 3-parameter log-logistic (also known as shifted log-logistic) distribution. The proposed distribution provided a better fit than all of the competitive distributions based on the goodness-of-fit tests, the log-likelihood, and information criterion values. Finally, Bayesian analysis and performance of Gibbs sampling for the data set are also carried out.

Keywords: hazard rate function, log-logistic distribution, maximum likelihood estimation, generalized log-logistic distribution, survival data, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Abdulla Al Hmoudi

Abstract:

The impacts and costs of natural disasters on people, properties and the environment is often severe when they occur on a large scale or when not prepared for. Factors such as impacts of climate change, urban growth, poor planning to mention a few, have continued to significantly increase the frequencies and aggravate the impacts of natural hazards across the world; the United Arab Emirates (UAE) inclusive. The lack of deployment of an early warning system, low risk and hazard knowledge and impact of natural hazard experienced in some communities in the UAE have emphasised the need for more effective early warning systems. This paper focuses on the collaborative approach taken to instituting and implementing an early warning system. Using mixed methods 888 people completed the questionnaire and eight people were interviewed in Abu Dhabi. The results indicate that the collaborative approach to early warning system is UAE is needed, but lacks essential principles of the early warning system and currently underutilised. It is recommended that the collaborative early warning system is applied at every stage of the early warning system with the specific responsibility of each stakeholder and actor.

Keywords: community, early warning system, emergency management, UAE

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: A. Alrasheed, I. Connerton

Abstract:

Daily provision of high quality food and hygiene to patients is a challenging goal of the healthcare. In Saudi Arabia, matters related to food safety and hygiene are regulated by the Ministry of Health (MOH) and the Saudi Food and Drugs Authority (SFDA). The purpose of this research is to discuss the food safety management inconsistencies and flaws, in particular the ones related to Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) in Riyadh’s MOH hospitals. As required by law, written HACCP regulations must be implemented, and food handlers need to receive the training accordingly. However, in Saudi hospitals, this is not a requirement, and the food handlers do not need to hold training certificates in food safety or HACCP. Nowadays, the matter of food safety and hygiene have become increasingly important since the decision makers want to align these regulations with the majority of the world and to implement HACCP fully and for this purpose, the SFDA was established. 

Keywords: food safety, patients, hospitals, HACCP, Saudi Arabia

Procedia PDF Downloads 240

Authors: Nicole Hiltbrand, Simone Quatrini, Eva Lieberherr

Abstract:

This research delves into the evolution of natural hazard management policy in Switzerland through the lens of policy integration, a crucial concept for addressing complex, cross-cutting issues like natural hazards. Through a descriptive case study approach focussing on the Canton of Grisons, the research explores how policy integration has evolved between 1870 and 2020 alongside with specific contextual conditions characterizing the complex relation between humans and nature in Alpine areas subject to natural hazards with high damage potential, such as landslides, avalanches and floods. The primary objective of the research is to evaluate the changes in policy integration that can be observed across the study period and discern the key drivers behind these transformations. Employing a mixed-method qualitative approach, the research begins with a semi-systematic literature and document review, examining the legislative context in a historical perspective. Subsequently, policy integration is analysed using an established conceptual framework that distinguishes between four crucial dimensions: policy frames, subsystem involvement, policy goals, and policy instruments. Lastly, expert interviews were conducted to validate and enrich the findings from the analysis. The study reveals a discernible increase in policy integration across all dimensions analysed. Among the drivers of such change, the study highlights key factors that can be categorized as follows: (i) socio-political factors, (ii) advancements in technical and scientific knowledge, (iii) federal legislation and guidelines, as well as (iv) natural events. This study – conducted as part of a Master’s programme in the Department of Environmental Systems Science of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich – contributes to policy integration research by offering valuable insights into the evolving landscape of policy integration and the pivotal role played by contextual conditions. By casting light on the interconnectedness between policy evolution and contextual factors, this study offers insightful perspectives on how natural hazard management policy can adapt and respond to dynamic socio-political, technical, and environmental challenges.

Keywords: natural hazard management, policy integration, policy coherence, alpine region

Procedia PDF Downloads 29

Authors: Tin Thongthammachart, Wanida Jinsart

Abstract:

Atmospheric particulate matter particles with a diameter less than 10 microns (PM₁₀) and less than 2.5 microns (PM₂.₅) have adverse health effect. The impact from PM was studied from both health and regulatory perspective. Ambient PM data was collected over ten years in Bangkok and vicinity areas of Thailand from 2007 to 2017. Statistical models were used to forecast PM concentrations from 2018 to 2020. Monitoring monthly data averaged concentration of PM₁₀ and PM₂.₅ were used as input to forecast the monthly average concentration of PM. The forecasting results were validated by root means square error (RMSE). The predicted results were used to determine hazard risk for the carcinogenic disease. The health risk values were interpolated with GIS with ordinary kriging technique to create hazard maps in Bangkok and vicinity area. GIS-based maps illustrated the variability of PM distribution and high-risk locations. These evaluated results could support national policy for the sake of human health.

Keywords: PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, statistical models, atmospheric particulate matter

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Yusuf Jundi Sado

Abstract:

Changes in land use are mostly credited to human actions that result in negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functions. This study aims to analyze the dynamics of land use and land cover changes for sustainable natural resources planning and management. Chilalo-Galama Mountain Range, Ethiopia. This study used Thematic Mapper 05 (TM) for 1986, 2001 and Landsat 8 (OLI) data 2017. Additionally, data from the Central Statistics Agency on human population growth were analyzed. Semi-Automatic classification plugin (SCP) in QGIS 3.2.3 software was used for image classification. Global positioning system, field observations and focus group discussions were used for ground verification. Land Use Land Cover (LU/LC) change analysis was using maximum likelihood supervised classification and changes were calculated for the 1986–2001 and the 2001–2017 and 1986-2017 periods. The results show that agricultural land increased from 27.85% (1986) to 44.43% and 51.32% in 2001 and 2017, respectively with the overall accuracies of 92% (1986), 90.36% (2001), and 88% (2017). On the other hand, forests decreased from 8.51% (1986) to 7.64 (2001) and 4.46% (2017), and grassland decreased from 37.47% (1986) to 15.22%, and 15.01% in 2001 and 2017, respectively. It indicates for the years 1986–2017 the largest area cover gain of agricultural land was obtained from grassland. The matrix also shows that shrubland gained land from agricultural land, afro-alpine, and forest land. Population dynamics is found to be one of the major driving forces for the LU/LU changes in the study area.

Keywords: Landsat, LU/LC change, Semi-Automatic classification plugin, population dynamics, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 52

Authors: Korbinian Schmidtner, Rudolf Sailer, Perry Bartelt, Wolfgang Fellin, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Matthias Granig

Abstract:

This study focuses on the evaluation of snow avalanche simulations, based on a survey that has been carried out among avalanche experts. In the last decades, the application of avalanche simulation tools has gained recognition within the realm of hazard management. Traditionally, avalanche runout models were used to predict extreme avalanche runout and prepare avalanche maps. This has changed rather dramatically with the application of numerical models. For safety regulations such as road safety simulation tools are now being coupled with real-time meteorological measurements to predict frequent avalanche hazard. That places new demands on model accuracy and requires the simulation of physical processes that previously could be ignored. These simulation tools are based on a deterministic description of the avalanche movement allowing to predict certain quantities (e.g. pressure, velocities, flow heights, runout lengths etc.) of the avalanche flow. Because of the highly variable regimes of the flowing snow, no uniform rheological law describing the motion of an avalanche is known. Therefore, analogies to fluid dynamical laws of other materials are stated. To transfer these constitutional laws to snow flows, certain assumptions and adjustments have to be imposed. Besides these limitations, there exist high uncertainties regarding the initial and boundary conditions. Further challenges arise when implementing the underlying flow model equations into an algorithm executable by a computer. This implementation is constrained by the choice of adequate numerical methods and their computational feasibility. Hence, the model development is compelled to introduce further simplifications and the related uncertainties. In the light of these issues many questions arise on avalanche simulations, on their assets and drawbacks, on potentials for improvements as well as their application in practice. To address these questions a survey among experts in the field of avalanche science (e.g. researchers, practitioners, engineers) from various countries has been conducted. In the questionnaire, special attention is drawn on the expert’s opinion regarding the influence of certain variables on the simulation result, their uncertainty and the reliability of the results. Furthermore, it was tested to which degree a simulation result influences the decision making for a hazard assessment. A discrepancy could be found between a large uncertainty of the simulation input parameters as compared to a relatively high reliability of the results. This contradiction can be explained taking into account how the experts employ the simulations. The credibility of the simulations is the result of a rather thoroughly simulation study, where different assumptions are tested, comparing the results of different flow models along with the use of supplemental data such as chronicles, field observation, silent witnesses i.a. which are regarded as essential for the hazard assessment and for sanctioning simulation results. As the importance of avalanche simulations grows within the hazard management along with their further development studies focusing on the modeling fashion could contribute to a better understanding how knowledge of the avalanche process can be gained by running simulations.

Keywords: expert interview, hazard management, modeling, simulation, snow avalanche

Procedia PDF Downloads 295

Authors: Soledad Natalia M. Dalisay, Mylene De Guzman

Abstract:

In archipelagic countries like the Philippines, many communities thrive along coastal areas. The sea is the community members’ main source of livelihood and the site of many cultural activities. For these communities, the sea is their life and livelihood. Nevertheless, the sea also poses a hazard during the rainy season when typhoons frequent their communities. Coastal communities often encounter threats from storm surges and flooding that are common when there are typhoons. During such periods, disaster evacuation programs are implemented. However, in many instances, evacuation has been the bane of local government officials implementing such programs in their communities as resistance from community members is often encountered. Such resistance is often viewed by program implementers as due to the fact that people were hard headed and ignorant of the potential impacts of living in hazard prone areas. This paper argues that it is not for these reasons that people refused to evacuate. Drawing from data collected from fieldwork done in three sites in Central Philippines affected by super typhoon Haiyan, this study aimed to provide a contextualized understanding of peoples’ refusal to heed disaster evacuation warnings. This study utilized the multi-sited ethnography approach with in-depth episodic interviews, focus group discussions, participatory risk mapping and key informant interviews in gathering data on peoples’ experiences and insights specifically on evacuation during typhoon Haiyan. This study showed that people have priorities and considerations vital in their social lives that they are protecting in their refusal to leave their homes for pre-emptive evacuation. It is not that they are not aware of the risks when the face the hazard. It is more that they had faith in the local knowledge and strategies that they have developed since the time of their ancestors as a result of living and engaging with hazards in their areas for as long as they could remember. The study also revealed that risk in encounters with hazards was gendered. Furthermore, previous engagement with local government officials and the manner in which the pre-emptive evacuation programs were implemented had cast doubt on the value of such programs in saving their lives. Life in the designated evacuation areas can be as dangerous if not more compared with living in their coastal homes. There seems to be the impression that in the evacuation program of the government, people were being moved from hazard zones to death zones. Thus, this paper ends with several recommendations that may contribute to building more responsive evacuation programs that aim to build people’s resilience while taking into consideration the local moral world in communities in identified hazard zones.

Keywords: coastal communities, disaster evacuation, disaster risk perception, social and cultural responses to hazards

Procedia PDF Downloads 310

Authors: Varun Joshi, M. S. Rawat

Abstract:

The Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) is inherently fragile and susceptible to landslide hazard due to its extremely weak geology, highly rugged topography and heavy monsoonal rainfall. One of the most common hazards in the IHR is landslide, and this event is particularly frequent in Himalayan states of India i.e. Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh. Landslides are mostly triggered by extreme rainfall events but the incidence increases during monsoon months (June to September). Natural slopes which are otherwise stable but they get destabilized due to anthropogenic activities like construction of various developmental activities and deforestation. These activities are required to fulfill the developmental needs and upliftment of societal status in the region. Landslides also trigger during major earthquakes and reported most observable and damaging phenomena. Studies indicate that the landslide phenomenon has increased many folds due to developmental activities in Himalayan region. Gradually increasing and devastating consequences of landslides turned into one of the most important hydro-geological hazards in Himalayan states especially in Uttarakhand and Sikkim states of India. The recent most catastrophic rainfall in June 2013 in Uttarakhand lead to colossal loss of life and property. The societal damage due to this incident is still to be recovered even after three years. Sikkim earthquake of September 2011 is witnessed for triggering of large number of coseismic landslides. The rescue and relief team faced huge problem in helping the trapped villagers in remote locations of the state due to road side blockade by landslides. The recent past incidences of landslides in Uttarakhand, as well as Sikkim states, created a new domain of research in terms of understanding the phenomena of landslide and management of disaster in such situation. Every year at many locations landslides trigger which force dwellers to either evacuate their dwelling or lose their life and property. The communication and transportation networks are also severely affected by landslides at several locations. Many times the drinking water supply disturbed and shortage of daily need household items reported during monsoon months. To minimize the severity of landslide in IHR requires in-depth research and developmental planning. For most of the areas in the present study, landslide hazard zonation is done on 1:50,000 scale. The land use planning maps on extensive basis are not available. Therefore, there is a need of large-scale landslide hazard zonation and land use planning maps. If the scientist conduct research on desired aspects and their outcome of research is utilized by the government in developmental planning then the incidents of landslide could be minimized, subsequent impact on society, life and property would be reduced. Along with the scientific research, there is another need of awareness generation in the region for stake holders and local dwellers to combat with the landslide hazard, if triggered in their location.

Keywords: coseismic, Indian Himalayan Region, landslide hazard zonation, Sikkim, societal, Uttarakhand

Procedia PDF Downloads 222

Authors: Olivia Rachel Hwang, Yu-Hsuan Joni Shao

Abstract:

Androgen Deprivation Therapy (ADT) has been a primary treatment for patients with advanced prostate cancer. However, it is associated with numerous adverse effects related to Metabolic Syndrome (MetS), including hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidaemia, heart diseases and ischemic strokes. However, complications associated with ADT for prostate cancer in Taiwan is not well documented. The purpose of this study is to utilize the data from NHIRD (National Health Insurance Research Database) to examine the trajectory changes of MetS-related complications in men receiving ADT. The risks of developing complications after the treatment were analyzed with multivariate Cox regression model. Covariates including in the model were the complications before the diagnosis of prostate cancer, the age, and the year at cancer diagnosis. A total number of 17268 patients from 1997-2013 were included in this study. The exclusion criteria were patients with any other types of cancer or with the existing MetS-related complications. Changes in MetS-related complications were observed among two treatment groups: 1) ADT (n=9042), and 2) non-ADT (n=8226). The ADT group appeared to have an increased risk in hypertension (hazard ratio 1.08, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.13, P = 0.001) and hyperlipidemia (hazard ratio 1.09, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.17, P = 0.02) when compared with non-ADT group in the multivariate Cox regression analyses. In the risk of diabetes, heart diseases, and ischemic strokes, ADT group appeared to have an increased but not significant hazard ratio. In conclusion, ADT was associated with an increased risk in hypertension and hyperlipidemia in prostate cancer patients in Taiwan. The risk of hypertension and hyperlipidemia should be considered while deciding on ADT, especially those with the known history of hypertension and hyperlipidemia.

Keywords: androgen deprivation therapy, ADT, complications, metabolic syndrome, MetS, prostate cancer

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: Davoud Mokhtari

Abstract:

One of the factors behind the increasing development of geotourism is the identification and introduction of new facets of amazing geosphere phenomena. The Misho-Dagh Mountains in northwestern Iran are one of the rich geodiversity areas. The presence of some rare and interesting phenomena in this mountain has increased the potential of this region for geotourism development. Active pressure ridges, arcuate valleys, sag Ponds, granite complexes, glacial rock springs, and displaced habitats due to tectonic activity are among the most significant phenomena in the study area. The research is based on the literature review of geotourism and personal research experiences on geomorphosites of the northwest of Iran. Monitoring the changes of geomorphosites and evaluation of corresponding changes in the geomorphosite̕s location and their capabilities using satellite images and fieldwork is done. In this study, six geomorphosite were introduced, each with special characteristics and with one of the geotourism topics. Selection of this location of northwestern Iran is due to the focus of author of this paper is on this part of the country, and there is no doubt that such places, even with higher values of geotourism, there are in various parts of Iran and the world that could be interested in this field of emerging science. From in situ observations taken in the field and estimating a level of impact, employing assessment techniques, and then finally extrapolating the resultant factors across all case studies, we have been able to generate a geotourism map for future planning purposes. Accordingly, it should be noted that we are not just part of the landscape of the geomorphosites. The geomorphosites are also part of our landscape. It is hoped that the findings of this paper can open a new world of geotourism that, if is not associated with geomorphological processes, will be very short.

Keywords: geotourism, sources of geotourism, geotouristic areas, mishow_dagh, northwest of Iran

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Hyunjung Kim, Kune-Woo Lee

Abstract:

Decommissioning process of nuclear facilities can be said to consist of a sequence of problem solving activities, partly because there may exist working environments contaminated by radiological exposure, and partly because there may also exist industrial hazards such as fire, explosions, toxic materials, and electrical and physical hazards. As for an individual hazard factor, risk assessment techniques are getting known to industrial workers with advance of safety technology, but the way how to integrate those results is not. Furthermore, there are few workers who experienced decommissioning operations a lot in the past. Therefore, not a few countries in the world have been trying to develop appropriate counter techniques in order to guarantee safety and efficiency of the process. In spite of that, there still exists neither domestic nor international standard since nuclear facilities are too diverse and unique. In the consequence, it is quite inevitable to imagine and assess the whole risk in the situation anticipated one by one. This paper aimed to find out an appropriate technique to integrate individual risk assessment results from the viewpoint of experts. Thus, on one hand the whole risk assessment activity for decommissioning operations was modeled as a sequence of individual risk assessment steps, and on the other, a hierarchical risk structure was developed. Then, risk assessment procedure that can elicit individual hazard factors one by one were introduced with reference to the standard operation procedure (SOP) and hierarchical task analysis (HTA). With an assumption of quantification and normalization of individual risks, a technique to estimate relative weight factors was tried by using the conventional Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) and its result was reviewed with reference to judgment of experts. Besides, taking the ambiguity of human judgment into consideration, debates based upon fuzzy inference was added with a mathematical case study.

Keywords: decommissioning, risk assessment, analytic hierarchical process (AHP), fuzzy inference

Procedia PDF Downloads 397

Authors: Eszter Kulcsar, Agnes Takacs, Gabriella B. Kiss, Peter Prakfalvi

Abstract:

The Karancs Mountain is part of the Miocene Inner Carpathian Volcanic Belt and is located in N-NE Hungary, along the Hungarian-Slovakian border. The 14 Ma old andesitic-dacitic units are surrounded by Oligocene sedimentary units (sandstone, siltstone). The host rocks of the mineralisation are siliceous and/or argillaceous volcanic units, quartz veins, hydrothermal breccia, and strongly silicified vuggy rocks, found in the various altered volcanic units. The hydrothermal breccia consists of highly silicified vuggy quartz clasts in quartz matrix. The hydrothermal alteration of the host units shows structural control at the deeper levels. The main ore minerals are galena, pyrite, marcasite, sphalerite, hematite, magnetite, arsenopyrite, anglesite and argentite The mineralisation was first mentioned in 1944 and the first exploration took place between 1961 and 1962 in the area. The first ore geological studies were performed between 1984-1985. The exploration programme was limited only to surface sampling; no drilling programme was performed. Petrographical and preliminary fluid inclusion studies were performed on calcite samples from a galena-bearing vein. Despite the early discovery of the mineralisation, no detailed description is available, thus its size, characteristics, and origin have remained unknown. The aim of this study is to examine the mineralisation, describe the characteristics in detail and to test the possible gold content of the various quartz veins and breccias. Finally, we also investigate the potential relation of the hydrothermal mineralisation to the surrounding similar mineralisations with similar ages (e.g. W-Mátra Mountains in Hungary, Banska Bystrica, Banska Stiavnica in Slovakia) in order to place the mineralisation within the volcanic-hydrothermal evolution of the Miocene Inner Carpathian Belt. As first steps, the study includes field mapping, traditional petrological and ore microscopy; X-ray diffraction analysis; SEM-EDS and EMPA studies on ore minerals, to obtain mineral chemical information. Fluid inclusion petrography and microthermometry and micro-Raman-spectroscopy studies are also planned on quartz-hosted inclusions to investigate the physical and chemical properties of the ore-forming fluid.

Keywords: epithermal, Karancs Mountain, Hungary, Miocene Inner Carpathian volcanic belt, polimetallic ore deposit

Procedia PDF Downloads 104

Authors: R. Sri Karthi Krishna, A. Saravana Kumar, Kesava Brahmaji, V. S. Vinoj

Abstract:

The lunar surface may contain rough and non-uniform terrain with dips and peaks. Soft-landing is a method of landing the lander on the lunar surface without any damage to the vehicle. This project focuses on finding a safe landing site for the vehicle by developing a method for the lateral velocity determination of the lunar lander. This is done by processing the real time images obtained by means of an on-board vision sensor. The hazard avoidance phase of the soft-landing starts when the vehicle is about 200 m above the lunar surface. Here, the lander has a very low velocity of about 10 cm/s:vertical and 5 m/s:horizontal. On the detection of a hazard the lander is navigated by controlling the vertical and lateral velocity. In order to find an appropriate landing site and to accordingly navigate, the lander image processing is performed continuously. The images are taken continuously until the landing site is determined, and the lander safely lands on the lunar surface. By integrating this vision-based navigation with the INS a better accuracy for the soft-landing of the lunar lander can be obtained.

Keywords: vision aided INS, image processing, lateral velocity estimation, materials engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 435

Authors: Muhammad Tariq A. Chaudhary

Abstract:

The tremendous loss of life that resulted in the aftermath of recent earthquakes in developing countries is mostly due to the collapse of non-engineered and semi-engineered building structures. Such structures are used as houses, schools, primary healthcare centres and government offices. These building are classified structurally into two categories viz. non-engineered and semi-engineered. Non-engineered structures include: adobe, Unreinforced Masonry (URM) and wood buildings. Semi-engineered buildings are mostly low-rise (up to 3 story) light concrete frame structures or masonry bearing walls with reinforced concrete slab. This paper presents an overview of the typical damage observed in non-engineered structures and their most likely causes in the past earthquakes with specific emphasis on the performance of such structures in the 2005 Kashmir earthquake. It is demonstrated that seismic performance of these structures can be improved from life-safety viewpoint by adopting simple low-cost modifications to the existing construction practices. Incorporation of some of these practices in the reconstruction efforts after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake are examined in the last section for mitigating seismic risk hazard.

Keywords: Kashmir earthquake, non-engineered buildings, seismic hazard, structural details, structural strengthening

Procedia PDF Downloads 256

Authors: Ludivine Saint-Mard, Masato Nakajima, Gloria Senfaute

Abstract:

In areas with low to moderate seismicity, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis frequently uses a Poisson approach, which assumes independence in time and space of events to determine the annual probability of earthquake occurrence. Nevertheless, in countries with high seismic rate, such as Japan, it is frequently use non-poissonian model which assumes that next earthquake occurrence depends on the date of previous one. The objective of this paper is to apply a non-poissonian models in a region of low to moderate seismicity to get a feedback on the following questions: can we overcome the lack of data to determine some key parameters?, and can we deal with uncertainties to apply largely this methodology on an industrial context?. The Brownian-Passage-Time model was applied to a fault located in France and conclude that even if the lack of data can be overcome with some calculations, the amount of uncertainties and number of scenarios leads to a numerous branches in PSHA, making this method difficult to apply on a large scale of low to moderate seismicity areas and in an industrial context.

Keywords: probabilistic seismic hazard, non-poissonian model, earthquake occurrence, low seismicity

Procedia PDF Downloads 23

Authors: Hanna Schübel, Ivo Wallimann-Helmer

Abstract:

In order to reach the goal of the Paris Agreement to not overshoot 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels, various countries including the UK and Switzerland have committed themselves to net zero emissions by 2050. The employment of negative emission technologies (NETs) is very likely going to be necessary for meeting these national objectives as well as other internationally agreed climate targets. NETs are methods of removing carbon from the atmosphere and are thus a means for addressing climate change. They range from afforestation to technological measures such as direct air capture and carbon storage (DACCS), where CO2 is captured from the air and stored underground. As all so-called geoengineering technologies, the development and deployment of NETs are often subject to moral hazard arguments. As these technologies could be perceived as an alternative to mitigation efforts, so the argument goes, they are potentially a dangerous distraction from the main target of mitigating emissions. We think that this is a dangerous argument to make as it may hinder the development of NETs which are an essential element of net zero emission targets. In this paper we argue that the moral hazard argument is only problematic if we do not reflect upon which levels of emissions are at stake in order to meet net zero emissions. In response to the moral hazard argument we develop an account of which levels of emissions in given societies should be mitigated and not be the target of NETs and which levels of emissions can legitimately be a target of NETs. For this purpose, we define four different levels of emissions: the current level of individual emissions, the level individuals emit in order to appear in public without shame, the level of a fair share of individual emissions in the global budget, and finally the baseline of net zero emissions. At each level of emissions there are different subjects to be assigned responsibilities if societies and/or individuals are committed to the target of net zero emissions. We argue that all emissions within one’s fair share do not demand individual mitigation efforts. The same holds with regard to individuals and the baseline level of emissions necessary to appear in public in their societies without shame. Individuals are only under duty to reduce their emissions if they exceed this baseline level. This is different for whole societies. Societies demanding more emissions to appear in public without shame than the individual fair share are under duty to foster emission reductions and are not legitimate to reduce by introducing NETs. NETs are legitimate for reducing emissions only below the level of fair shares and for reaching net zero emissions. Since access to NETs to achieve net zero emissions demands technology not affordable to individuals there are also no full individual responsibilities to achieve net zero emissions. This is mainly a responsibility of societies as a whole.

Keywords: climate change, mitigation, moral hazard, negative emission technologies, responsibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 94

Authors: Navid Eghtedarpour, Mohammad Reza Hasani

Abstract:

Since renewable wind power plants are usually installed in mountain regions and high-level lands, they are often prone to lightning strikes and their hazardous effects. Although the transmission line is protected using guard wires in order to prevent the lightning surges to strike the phase conductors, the back-flashover may also occur due to tower footing resistance. A combination of back-flashover corrective methods, tower-footing resistance reduction, insulation level improvement, and line arrester installation, are analyzed in this paper for back-flashover rate reduction of a double-circuit 63 kV line in the south region of Fars province. The line crosses a mountain region in some sections with a moderate keraunic level, whereas tower-footing resistance is substantially high at some towers. Consequently, an exceptionally high back-flashover rate is recorded. A new method for insulation improvement is studied and employed in the current study. The method consists of using a composite-type creepage extender in the string. The effectiveness of this method for insulation improvement of the string is evaluated through the experimental test. Simulation results besides monitoring the one-year operation of the 63-kV line show that due to technical, practical, and economic restrictions in operated sub-transmission lines, a combination of corrective methods can lead to an effective solution for the protection of transmission lines against lightning.

Keywords: lightning protection, BF rate, grounding system, insulation level, line surge arrester

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Jhuang Jin-Jhong, Hsieh Wei-Fan

Abstract:

Climate change causes natural disasters persistently. Therefore, nowadays environmental planning objective tends to the issues of respecting nature and coexisting with nature. As a result, the natural environment analysis, e.g., the analysis of topography, soil, hydrology, climate, vegetation, is highly emphasized. On the other hand, Feng Shui has been a criterion of site selection for residence in Eastern since the ancient times and has had farther influence on site selection for castles and even for temples and tombs. The primary criterion of site selection is judging the quality of Long: mountain range, Sha: nearby mountains, Shui: hydrology, Xue: foundation, Xiang: aspect, which are similar to the environmental variables of mountain range, topography, hydrology and aspect. For the reason, a lot researchers attempt to probe into the connection between the criterion of Feng Shui and environmental planning factors. Most researches only discussed with the composition and theory of space of Feng Shui, but there is no research which explained Feng Shui through the environmental field. Consequently, this study reviewed the theory of Feng Shui through the environmental planning viewpoint and assembled essential composition factors of Feng Shui. The results of this study point. From literature review and comparison of theoretical meanings, we find that the ideal principles for planning the Feng Shui environment can also be used for environmental planning. Therefore, this article uses 12 ideal environmental features used in Feng Shui to contrast the natural aspects of the environment and make comparisons with previous research and classifies the environmental factors into climate, topography, hydrology, vegetation, and soil.

Keywords: the composition of Feng Shui, environmental planning, site selection, main components of the Feng Shui environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 483

Authors: I. Grigoratos, R. Monteiro

Abstract:

Regions with a significant percentage of non-seismically designed buildings and reduced urban planning are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards. In this context, the project ‘Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria’ (ITERATE) aims at seismic risk mitigation in Algeria. Past earthquakes in North Algeria caused extensive damages, e.g. the El Asnam 1980 moment magnitude (Mw) 7.1 and Boumerdes 2003 Mw 6.8 earthquakes. This paper will address a number of proposed developments and considerations made towards a further improvement of the component of seismic hazard. In specific, an updated earthquake catalog (until year 2018) is compiled, and new conversion equations to moment magnitude are introduced. Furthermore, a network-based method for the estimation of the spatial and temporal distribution of the minimum magnitude of completeness is applied. We found relatively large values for M_c, due to the sparse network, and a nonlinear trend between M_w and body wave (m_b) or local magnitude (M_L), which are the most common scales reported in the region. Lastly, the resulting b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution is sensitive to the declustering method.

Keywords: conversion equation, magnitude of completeness, seismic events, seismic hazard

Procedia PDF Downloads 140