Search results for: models error comparison

Authors: Oluwatosin Olofintoye, Josiah Adeyemo, Gbemileke Shomade

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The relationship between rainfall and runoff is an important issue in surface water hydrology therefore the understanding and development of accurate rainfall-runoff models and their applications in water resources planning, management and operation are of paramount importance in hydrological studies. This paper reviews some of the previous works on the rainfall-runoff process modeling. The hydrologic applications of conceptual models and artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the precipitation-runoff process modeling were studied. Gradient training methods such as error back-propagation (BP) and evolutionary algorithms (EAs) are discussed in relation to the training of artificial neural networks and it is shown that application of EAs to artificial neural networks training could be an alternative to other training methods. Therefore, further research interest to exploit the abundant expert knowledge in the area of artificial intelligence for the solution of hydrologic and water resources planning and management problems is needed.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, evolutionary algorithms, gradient training method, rainfall-runoff model

Procedia PDF Downloads 445

Authors: Komal Rathore, Aydin Sunol, Gita Iranipour, Luke Mulford

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Advanced wastewater treatment plants have complex biological kinetics, time variant influent flow rates and long processing times. Due to these factors, the modeling and operational control of advanced wastewater treatment plants become complicated. However, development of a robust model for advanced wastewater treatment plants has become necessary in order to increase the efficiency of the plants, reduce energy costs and meet the discharge limits set by the government. A dynamic model was designed using the Envirosim (Canada) platform software called BioWin for several wastewater treatment plants in Hillsborough County, Florida. Proper control strategies for various parameters such as mixed liquor suspended solids, recycle activated sludge and waste activated sludge were developed for models to match the plant performance. The models were tuned using both the influent and effluent data from the plant and their laboratories. The plant SCADA was used to predict the influent wastewater rates and concentration profiles as a function of time. The kinetic parameters were tuned based on sensitivity analysis and trial and error methods. The dynamic models were validated by using experimental data for influent and effluent parameters. The dissolved oxygen measurements were taken to validate the model by coupling them with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models. The Biowin models were able to exactly mimic the plant performance and predict effluent behavior for extended periods. The models are useful for plant engineers and operators as they can take decisions beforehand by predicting the plant performance with the use of BioWin models. One of the important findings from the model was the effects of recycle and wastage ratios on the mixed liquor suspended solids. The model was also useful in determining the significant kinetic parameters for biological wastewater treatment systems.

Keywords: BioWin, kinetic modeling, flowsheet simulation, dynamic modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

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Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

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Authors: Noha Nagy, Hoda Mokhtar, Mohamed El Sherkawi

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The popularity of workflow delegation models and the increasing number of workflow provenance-aware systems motivate the need for finding more strict delegation models. Such models combine different approaches for enhanced security and respecting workflow privacy. Although modern enterprises seek conformance to workflow constraints to ensure correctness of their work, these constraints pose a threat to security, because these constraints can be good seeds for attacking privacy even in secure models. This paper introduces a comprehensive Workflow Delegation Model (WFDM) that utilizes provenance and workflow constraints to prevent malicious delegate from attacking workflow privacy as well as extending the delegation functionalities. In addition, we argue the need for exploiting workflow constraints to improve workflow security models.

Keywords: workflow delegation models, secure workflow, workflow privacy, workflow provenance

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Authors: Barzin Rajabloo, Martin Desilets

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First, an electrochemical model for the reduction of CO₂ into CH₃OH is developed in which mass and charge transfer, reactions at the surface of the electrodes and fluid flow of the electrolyte are considered. This mathematical model is developed in COMSOL Multiphysics® where both secondary and tertiary current distribution interfaces are coupled to consider concentrations and potentials inside different parts of the cell. Constant reaction rates are assumed as the fitted parameters to minimize the error between experimental data and modeling results. The model is validated through a comparison with experimental data in terms of faradaic efficiency for production of CH₃OH, the current density in different applied cathode potentials as well as current density in different electrolyte flow rates. The comparison between model outputs and experimental measurements shows a good agreement. The model indicates the higher hydrogen evolution in comparison with CH₃OH production as well as mass transfer limitation caused by CO₂ concentration, which are consistent with findings in the literature. After validating the model, in the second part of the study, some design parameters of the cell, such as cathode geometry and catholyte/anolyte channel widths, are modified to reach better performance and higher faradaic efficiency of methanol production.

Keywords: carbon dioxide, electrochemical reduction, methanol, modeling

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Authors: Prateeksha Mahamallik, Anjali Pal

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In the present study, Co(II)-adsolubilized surfactant modified alumina (SMA) was prepared, and methylene blue (MB) degradation was carried out on Co-SMA surface by visible light photo-Fenton process. The entire reaction proceeded on solid surface as MB was embedded on Co-SMA surface. The reaction followed zero order kinetics. Response surface methodology (RSM) and artificial neural network (ANN) were used for modeling the decolorization of MB by photo-Fenton process as a function of dose of Co-SMA (10, 20 and 30 g/L), initial concentration of MB (10, 20 and 30 mg/L), concentration of H2O2 (174.4, 348.8 and 523.2 mM) and reaction time (30, 45 and 60 min). The prediction capabilities of both the methodologies (RSM and ANN) were compared on the basis of correlation coefficient (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), standard error of prediction (SEP), relative percent deviation (RPD). Due to lower value of RMSE (1.27), SEP (2.06) and RPD (1.17) and higher value of R2 (0.9966), ANN was proved to be more accurate than RSM in order to predict decolorization efficiency.

Keywords: adsolubilization, artificial neural network, methylene blue, photo-fenton process, response surface methodology

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Authors: Tasir Khan, Ishfaq Ahmad, Yejuan Wang, Muhammad Salam

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Distribution models of the wind speed data are essential to assess the potential wind speed energy because it decreases the uncertainty to estimate wind energy output. Therefore, before performing a detailed potential energy analysis, the precise distribution model for data relating to wind speed must be found. In this research, material from numerous criteria goodness-of-fits, such as Kolmogorov Simonov, Anderson Darling statistics, Chi-Square, root mean square error (RMSE), AIC and BIC were combined finally to determine the wind speed of the best-fitted distribution. The suggested method collectively makes each criterion. This method was useful in a circumstance to fitting 14 distribution models statistically with the data of wind speed together at four sites in Pakistan. The consequences show that this method provides the best source for selecting the most suitable wind speed statistical distribution. Also, the graphical representation is consistent with the analytical results. This research presents three estimation methods that can be used to calculate the different distributions used to estimate the wind. In the suggested MLM, MOM, and MLE the third-order moment used in the wind energy formula is a key function because it makes an important contribution to the precise estimate of wind energy. In order to prove the presence of the suggested MOM, it was compared with well-known estimation methods, such as the method of linear moment, and maximum likelihood estimate. In the relative analysis, given to several goodness-of-fit, the presentation of the considered techniques is estimated on the actual wind speed evaluated in different time periods. The results obtained show that MOM certainly provides a more precise estimation than other familiar approaches in terms of estimating wind energy based on the fourteen distributions. Therefore, MOM can be used as a better technique for assessing wind energy.

Keywords: wind-speed modeling, goodness of fit, maximum likelihood method, linear moment

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Authors: Atheer Al-Nuaimi, Harry Evdorides

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Every day many people die or get disabled or injured on roads around the world, which necessitates more specific treatments for transportation safety issues. International road assessment program (iRAP) model is one of the comprehensive road safety models which accounting for many factors that affect road safety in a cost-effective way in low and middle income countries. In iRAP model road safety has been divided into five star ratings from 1 star (the lowest level) to 5 star (the highest level). These star ratings are based on star rating score which is calculated by iRAP methodology depending on road attributes, traffic volumes and operating speeds. The outcome of iRAP methodology are the treatments that can be used to improve road safety and reduce fatalities and serious injuries (FSI) numbers. These countermeasures can be used separately as a single countermeasure or mix as multiple countermeasures for a location. There is general agreement that the adequacy of a countermeasure is liable to consistent losses when it is utilized as a part of mix with different countermeasures. That is, accident diminishment appraisals of individual countermeasures cannot be easily added together. The iRAP model philosophy makes utilization of a multiple countermeasure adjustment factors to predict diminishments in the effectiveness of road safety countermeasures when more than one countermeasure is chosen. A multiple countermeasure correction factors are figured for every 100-meter segment and for every accident type. However, restrictions of this methodology incorporate a presumable over-estimation in the predicted crash reduction. This study aims to adjust this correction factor by developing new models to calculate the effect of using multiple countermeasures on the number of fatalities for a location or an entire road. Regression models have been used to establish relationships between crash frequencies and the factors that affect their rates. Multiple linear regression, negative binomial regression, and Poisson regression techniques were used to develop models that can address the effectiveness of using multiple countermeasures. Analyses are conducted using The R Project for Statistical Computing showed that a model developed by negative binomial regression technique could give more reliable results of the predicted number of fatalities after the implementation of road safety multiple countermeasures than the results from iRAP model. The results also showed that the negative binomial regression approach gives more precise results in comparison with multiple linear and Poisson regression techniques because of the overdispersion and standard error issues.

Keywords: international road assessment program, negative binomial, road multiple countermeasures, road safety

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Authors: Sadeep Sasidharan, T. B. Isha

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Modern day electric vehicles require compact high torque/power density motors for electric propulsion. This necessitates proper thermal management of the electric motors. The main focus of this paper is to compare the steady state thermal analysis of a conventional 20 kW 8/6 Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM) with that of an Induction Motor and Inset Permanent Magnet (IPM) motor of the same rating. The goal is to develop a proper thermal model of the three types of models for Finite Element Thermal Analysis. JMAG software is used for the development and simulation of the thermal models. The results show that the induction motor is subjected to more heating when used for electric vehicle application constantly, compared to the SRM and IPM.

Keywords: electric vehicles, induction motor, inset permanent magnet motor, loss models, switched reluctance motor, thermal analysis

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Authors: Abdurrasheed Sa'id, Abubakar Isma'il, Waheed Alayande

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This study focused on carrying out numerical simulations of Kangimi reservoir sedimentation by reviewing different numerical sediment transport models, and GSTARS3 was selected. The model was developed using the 1977 data. It was calibrated by simulating the 2012 profile and sediment deposition and compared with 2012 hydrographic survey results of NWRI. The model was validated by simulating the 2016 deposition and compared the results with NWRI estimates. Also, the performance of the proposed model was tested using statistical parameters such as MSE (Mean Square Error), MAPE (Mean Average Percentage Error) and R2 (Coefficient of determination) with values of 1.32m, 0.17% and 0.914 respectively which shows strong agreement. After the calibration, validation and performance testing the model was used to simulate the 2032 and 2062 profiles and deposition. The results showed that by 2032 the reservoir will be silted by 25.34MCM or 43.3% of the design capacity and 60.7% of the capacity by the year 2062. A number of sedimentation mitigation measures were recommended.

Keywords: NWRI- national water resources institute, sedimentation, GSTARS3, model

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Authors: Keneilwe Maremi, Marlien Herselman, Adele Botha

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The main purpose and focus of this paper are to determine the Interoperability Maturity Models to consider when using School Management Systems (SMS). The importance of this is to inform and help schools with knowing which Interoperability Maturity Model is best suited for their SMS. To address the purpose, this paper will apply a scoping review to ensure that all aspects are provided. The scoping review will include papers written from 2012-2019 and a comparison of the different types of Interoperability Maturity Models will be discussed in detail, which includes the background information, the levels of interoperability, and area for consideration in each Maturity Model. The literature was obtained from the following databases: IEEE Xplore and Scopus, the following search engines were used: Harzings, and Google Scholar. The topic of the paper was used as a search term for the literature and the term ‘Interoperability Maturity Models’ was used as a keyword. The data were analyzed in terms of the definition of Interoperability, Interoperability Maturity Models, and levels of interoperability. The results provide a table that shows the focus area of concern for each Maturity Model (based on the scoping review where only 24 papers were found to be best suited for the paper out of 740 publications initially identified in the field). This resulted in the most discussed Interoperability Maturity Model for consideration (Information Systems Interoperability Maturity Model (ISIMM) and Organizational Interoperability Maturity Model for C2 (OIM)).

Keywords: interoperability, interoperability maturity model, school management system, scoping review

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Authors: Yinggang Guo, Zongchun Li

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In order to decrease the accumulated survey error of tunnel installation control network of particle accelerator, a sectional control method is proposed. Firstly, the accumulation rule of positional error with the length of the control network is obtained by simulation calculation according to the shape of the tunnel installation-control-network. Then, the RMS of horizontal positional precision of tunnel backbone control network is taken as the threshold. When the accumulated error is bigger than the threshold, the tunnel installation control network should be divided into subsections reasonably. On each segment, the middle survey station is taken as the datum for independent adjustment calculation. Finally, by taking the backbone control points as faint datums, the weighted partial parameters adjustment is performed with the adjustment results of each segment and the coordinates of backbone control points. The subsections are jointed and unified into the global coordinate system in the adjustment process. An installation control network of the linac with a length of 1.6 km is simulated. The RMS of positional deviation of the proposed method is 2.583 mm, and the RMS of the difference of positional deviation between adjacent points reaches 0.035 mm. Experimental results show that the proposed sectional control method can not only effectively decrease the accumulated survey error but also guarantee the relative positional precision of the installation control network. So it can be applied in the data processing of tunnel installation control networks, especially for large particle accelerators.

Keywords: alignment, tunnel installation control network, accumulated survey error, sectional control method, datum

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Authors: Igor Velickovski, Aleksandar Stojkov, Ivana Rajkovic

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This paper investigates drivers of shock synchronization using quarterly data for 27 European countries over the period 1999-2013 and taking into account the difference between core (‘the euro area core locomotive’) and peripheral euro area and transition countries (‘the peripheral wagons’). Results from panel error-correction models suggest that core of the euro area has not been strong magnetizer of the shock convergence of periphery and transition countries since the euro inception as a result of the offsetting effects of the various factors that affected the shock convergence process. These findings challenge the endogeneity hypothesis in the optimum currency area framework and rather support the specialisation paradigm which is concerning evidence for the future stability of the euro area.

Keywords: dynamic panel models, shock synchronisation, trade, optimum currency area

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Authors: Mohamed Arbi Khlifi, Badr M. Alshammari

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This paper discusses the general methods to saturation in the steady-state, two axis (d & q) frame models of synchronous machines. In particular, the important role of the magnetic coupling between the d-q axes (cross-magnetizing phenomenon), is demonstrated. For that purpose, distinct methods of saturation modeling of dumper synchronous machine with cross-saturation are identified, and detailed models synthesis in d-q axes. A number of models are given in the final developed form. The procedure and the novel models are verified by a critical application to prove the validity of the method and the equivalence between all developed models is reported. Advantages of some of the models over the existing ones and their applicability are discussed.

Keywords: cross-magnetizing, models synthesis, synchronous machine, saturated modeling, state-space vectors

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Authors: Steven Latré, Frederik Desplentere, Ilya Straumit, Stepan V. Lomov

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A method is proposed in order to create a three-dimensional finite element model representing fibre reinforced insulation materials for the simulation software Siemens NX. VoxTex software, a tool for quantification of µCT images of fibrous materials, is used for the transformation of microtomography images of random fibre reinforced composites into finite element models. An automatic tool was developed to execute the import of the models to the thermal solver module of Siemens NX. The paper describes the numerical tools used for the image quantification and the transformation and illustrates them on several thermal simulations of fibre reinforced insulation blankets filled with low thermal conductive fillers. The calculation of thermal conductivity is validated by comparison with the experimental data.

Keywords: analysis, modelling, thermal, voxel

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Authors: David F. Nettleton, Elodie Bugnicourt, Christian Wasiak, Alejandro Rosales

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In this presentation, preliminary results are given for the modeling and calibration of two different industrial winding MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output) processes using machine learning techniques. In contrast to previous approaches which have typically used ‘black-box’ linear statistical methods together with a definition of the mechanical behavior of the process, we use non-linear machine learning algorithms together with a ‘white-box’ rule induction technique to create a supervised model of the fitting error between the expected and real force measures. The final objective is to build a precise model of the winding process in order to control de-tension of the material being wound in the first case, and the friction of the material passing through the die, in the second case. Case 1, Tension Control of a Winding Process. A plastic web is unwound from a first reel, goes over a traction reel and is rewound on a third reel. The objectives are: (i) to train a model to predict the web tension and (ii) calibration to find the input values which result in a given tension. Case 2, Friction Force Control of a Micro-Pullwinding Process. A core+resin passes through a first die, then two winding units wind an outer layer around the core, and a final pass through a second die. The objectives are: (i) to train a model to predict the friction on die2; (ii) calibration to find the input values which result in a given friction on die2. Different machine learning approaches are tested to build models, Kernel Ridge Regression, Support Vector Regression (with a Radial Basis Function Kernel) and MPART (Rule Induction with continuous value as output). As a previous step, the MPART rule induction algorithm was used to build an explicative model of the error (the difference between expected and real friction on die2). The modeling of the error behavior using explicative rules is used to help improve the overall process model. Once the models are built, the inputs are calibrated by generating Gaussian random numbers for each input (taking into account its mean and standard deviation) and comparing the output to a target (desired) output until a closest fit is found. The results of empirical testing show that a high precision is obtained for the trained models and for the calibration process. The learning step is the slowest part of the process (max. 5 minutes for this data), but this can be done offline just once. The calibration step is much faster and in under one minute obtained a precision error of less than 1x10-3 for both outputs. To summarize, in the present work two processes have been modeled and calibrated. A fast processing time and high precision has been achieved, which can be further improved by using heuristics to guide the Gaussian calibration. Error behavior has been modeled to help improve the overall process understanding. This has relevance for the quick optimal set up of many different industrial processes which use a pull-winding type process to manufacture fibre reinforced plastic parts. Acknowledgements to the Openmind project which is funded by Horizon 2020 European Union funding for Research & Innovation, Grant Agreement number 680820

Keywords: data model, machine learning, industrial winding, calibration

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Authors: Abdusalam Sharf

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In the oil and gas industries, one of the most important issues in drilling wells is understanding the behavior of a flow through an annulus gap in a vertical position, whose outer wall is stationary whilst the inner wall rotates. The main emphasis is placed on a comparison of experimental and computational investigations into the effects of the rotation speed of the inner pipe on the axial velocity profiles. The computational investigations were carried out by employing CFD software, and Gambit and Fluent. Three turbulence models were used: standard, RNG with enhanced wall treatment, and SST model. The profiles of the axial velocity had investigated at different rotation speeds of the inner pipe with three different volumetric flow rates. The comparison results showed that the calculations satisfactorily predict the qualitative features of the axial and swirl velocity profiles and the RNG model performs the best results.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics (CFD), SST k−ω shear-stress transport (k−ω mode variant), RNG k–ε renormalisation group (k−ε mode variant), y+ dimensionless distance from wall

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Authors: Xia Chen, Yulan Wang

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purpose: To compare the accuracy of Haigis, SRK/T, T2, Holladay 1, Hoffer Q, Barrett Universal II, Emmetropia Verifying Optical (EVO) and Kane for intraocular lens power calculation in patients with axial length (AL) ≥ 28 mm. Methods: In this retrospective single-center study, 50 eyes of 41 patients with AL ≥ 28 mm that underwent uneventful cataract surgery were enrolled. The actual postoperative refractive results were compared to the predicted refraction calculated with different formulas (Haigis, SRK/T, T2, Holladay 1, Hoffer Q, Barrett Universal II, EVO and Kane). The mean absolute prediction errors (MAE) 1 month postoperatively were compared. Results: The MAE of different formulas were as follows: Haigis (0.509), SRK/T (0.705), T2 (0.999), Holladay 1 (0.714), Hoffer Q (0.583), Barrett Universal II (0.552), EVO (0.463) and Kane (0.441). No significant difference was found among the different formulas (P = .122). The Kane and EVO formulas achieved the lowest level of mean prediction error (PE) and median absolute error (MedAE) (p < 0.05). Conclusion: The Kane and EVO formulas had a better success rate than others in predicting IOL power in high myopic eyes with AL longer than 28 mm in this study.

Keywords: cataract, power calculation formulas, intraocular lens, long axial length

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Authors: Zainab Almukhtar, Adel Merabet

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In this paper, a method for maximum power point tracking of a photovoltaic energy conversion system is presented. This method is based on using the difference between the power from the solar panel and an estimated power value to control the DC-DC converter of the photovoltaic system. The difference is continuously compared with a preset error permitted value. If the power difference is more than the error, the estimated power is multiplied by a factor and the operation is repeated until the difference is less or equal to the threshold error. The difference in power will be used to trigger a DC-DC boost converter in order to raise the voltage to where the maximum power point is achieved. The proposed method was experimentally verified through a PV energy conversion system driven by the OPAL-RT real time controller. The method was tested on varying radiation conditions and load requirements, and the Photovoltaic Panel was operated at its maximum power in different conditions of irradiation.

Keywords: control system, error, solar panel, MPPT tracking

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Authors: Ranitha Guna Selvi D, Ramakrishnan R, Mohideen Abdul Kader

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Purpose: To study the role of Vision centers in managing preventable blindness through refractive error correction in Rural South India. Methods: A retrospective analysis of patients attending 15 Vision centers in Rural South India from a period of January 2021 to December 2021 was done. Medical records of 10,85,81 patients both new and reviewed, 79,562 newly registered patients and 29,019 review patient’s from15 Vision centers were included for data analysis. All the patients registered at the vision center underwent basic eye examination, including visual acuity, IOP measurement, Slit-lamp examination, retinoscopy, Fundus examination etc. Results: A total of 1,08,581 patients were included in the study. Of the total 1,08,581 patients, 79,562 were newly registered patients at Vision center and 29,019 were review patients. Males were 52,201(48.1%) and Females were 56,308(51.9) among them. The mean age of all examined patients was 41.03 ± 20.9 years (Standard deviation) and ranged from 01 – 113 years. Presenting mean visual acuity was 0.31 ± 0.5 in the right eye and 0.31 ± 0.4 in the left eye. Of the 1,08,581 patients 22,770 patients had refractive error in right eye and 22,721 patients had uncorrected refractive error in left eye. Glass prescription was given to 17,178 (15.8%) patients. 8,109 (7.5%) patients were referred to the base hospital for specialty clinic expert opinion or for cataract surgery. Conclusion: Vision center utilizing teleconsultation for comprehensive eye screening unit is a very effective tool in reducing the avoidable visual impairment caused due to uncorrected refractive error. Vision Centre model is believed to be efficient as it facilitates early detection and management of uncorrected refractive errors.

Keywords: refractive error, uncorrected refractive error, vision center, vision technician, teleconsultation

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Authors: Kathleen Joy Hingan, Jessiraye Luienne Catubigan, Carlo Mercado, Janisse RañEses

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In this research, the researchers wanted to explore how specialists and resident doctors in the fields of surgery, and obstetrics and gynecology handle their medical errors. They are interested in understanding the factors that contributed to the disclosure of medical error, the feelings after the occurrence of an error, and the way they coped with it given the power relations in place. The researchers conducted semi-structured interviews, transcribed the recordings, and analyzed the transcripts using thematic analysis. They found that doctors disclosed to their superiors and co-residents to cope with and to learn from the errors. In terms of disclosure to patients, the participants told them about the adverse event, but not about the error because of fear for themselves, their colleagues, their institution, and their patient. Doctors also performed compensatory actions to make up for the error and the nondisclosure of its occurrence. These actions functioned as a form of damage control too. Resident doctors and specialists receive different sanctions because of the power structures in the system.

Keywords: coping, disclosure, doctors, interviews, medical errors, thematic analysis

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Authors: John Allard, Alex Rich, Iris Aguilar, Zachary Dodds

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With this paper we present several experiences deploying novel, low-cost resources for computing with 3D spatial models. Certainly, computing with 3D models undergirds some of our field’s most important contributions to the human experience. Most often, those are contrived artifacts. This work extends that tradition by focusing on novel resources that deliver uncontrived models of a system’s current surroundings. Atop this new capability, we present several projects investigating the student-accessibility of the computational tools for reasoning about the 3D space around us. We conclude that, with current scaffolding, real-world 3D models are now an accessible and viable foundation for creative computational work.

Keywords: 3D vision, matterport model, real-world 3D models, mathematical and computational methods

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Authors: Gadah Alkeniah

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Leadership is acknowledged internationally as fundamental to school efficiency and school enhancement nevertheless there are various understandings of what leadership is and how it is realised in practice. There are a number of educational leadership models that are considered important. However, the present study uses a systematic review method to examine and compare five models of the most well-known contemporary models of leadership as well as introduces the dimension of each model. Our results reveal that recently the distributed leadership has grown in popularity within the field of education. The study concludes by suggesting future directions in leadership development and education research.

Keywords: distributed leadership, instructional leadership, leadership models, moral leadership, strategic leadership, transformational leadership

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Authors: Liang-Hsuan Chen, Sheng-Shing Nien

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This study aims to develop approaches to formulate intuitionistic fuzzy regression (IFR) models for many decision-making applications in the fuzzy environments using intuitionistic fuzzy observations. Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs) are used to characterize the fuzzy input and output variables in the IFR formulation processes. A mathematical programming problem (MPP) is built up to optimally determine the IFR parameters. Each parameter in the MPP is defined as a couple of alternative numerical variables with opposite signs, and an intuitionistic fuzzy error term is added to the MPP to characterize the uncertainty of the model. The IFR model is formulated based on the distance measure to minimize the total distance errors between estimated and observed intuitionistic fuzzy responses in the MPP resolution processes. The proposed approaches are simple/efficient in the formulation/resolution processes, in which the sign of parameters can be determined so that the problem to predetermine the sign of parameters is avoided. Furthermore, the proposed approach has the advantage that the spread of the predicted IFN response will not be over-increased, since the parameters in the established IFR model are crisp. The performance of the obtained models is evaluated and compared with the existing approaches.

Keywords: fuzzy sets, intuitionistic fuzzy number, intuitionistic fuzzy regression, mathematical programming method

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Authors: Martin K. Steiger, Lukas Heisler, Hans-Georg Brachtendorf

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Deep neural networks and their variants form the backbone of many AI applications. Based on the so-called residual networks, a continuous formulation of such models as ordinary differential equations (ODEs) has proven advantageous since different techniques may be applied that significantly increase the learning speed and enable controlled trade-offs with the resulting error at the same time. For the evaluation of such models, high-performance numerical differential equation solvers are used, which also provide the gradients required for training. However, whether classical gradient-based methods are even applicable or which one yields the best results has not been discussed yet. This paper aims to redeem this situation by providing empirical results for different applications.

Keywords: deep neural networks, gradient-based learning, image processing, ordinary differential equation networks

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Authors: Adriano Z. Zambom, Preethi Ravikumar

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One of the biggest challenges in nonparametric regression is the curse of dimensionality. Additive models are known to overcome this problem by estimating only the individual additive effects of each covariate. However, if the model is misspecified, the accuracy of the estimator compared to the fully nonparametric one is unknown. In this work the efficiency of completely nonparametric regression estimators such as the Loess is compared to the estimators that assume additivity in several situations, including additive and non-additive regression scenarios. The comparison is done by computing the oracle mean square error of the estimators with regards to the true nonparametric regression function. Then, a backward elimination selection procedure based on the Akaike Information Criteria is proposed, which is computed from either the additive or the nonparametric model. Simulations show that if the additive model is misspecified, the percentage of time it fails to select important variables can be higher than that of the fully nonparametric approach. A dimension reduction step is included when nonparametric estimator cannot be computed due to the curse of dimensionality. Finally, the Boston housing dataset is analyzed using the proposed backward elimination procedure and the selected variables are identified.

Keywords: additive model, nonparametric regression, variable selection, Akaike Information Criteria

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Authors: B. Kriheli, E. Levner, T. C. E. Cheng, C. T. Ng

Abstract:

During the last decades, research interest in planning, scheduling, and control of emergency response operations, especially people rescue and evacuation from the dangerous zone of marine accidents, has increased dramatically. Until the survivors (called ‘targets’) are found and saved, it may cause loss or damage whose extent depends on the location of the targets and the search duration. The problem is to efficiently search for and detect/rescue the targets as soon as possible with the help of intelligent mobile robots so as to maximize the number of saved people and/or minimize the search cost under restrictions on the amount of saved people within the allowable response time. We consider a special situation when the autonomous mobile robots (AMR), e.g., unmanned aerial vehicles and remote-controlled robo-ships have no operator on board as they are guided and completely controlled by on-board sensors and computer programs. We construct a mathematical model for the search process in an uncertain environment and provide a new fast algorithm for scheduling the activities of the autonomous robots during the search-and rescue missions after an accident at sea. We presume that in the unknown environments, the AMR’s search-and-rescue activity is subject to two types of error: (i) a 'false-negative' detection error where a target object is not discovered (‘overlooked') by the AMR’s sensors in spite that the AMR is in a close neighborhood of the latter and (ii) a 'false-positive' detection error, also known as ‘a false alarm’, in which a clean place or area is wrongly classified by the AMR’s sensors as a correct target. As the general resource-constrained discrete search problem is NP-hard, we restrict our study to finding local-optimal strategies. A specificity of the considered operational research problem in comparison with the traditional Kadane-De Groot-Stone search models is that in our model the probability of the successful search outcome depends not only on cost/time/probability parameters assigned to each individual location but, as well, on parameters characterizing the entire history of (unsuccessful) search before selecting any next location. We provide a fast approximation algorithm for finding the AMR route adopting a greedy search strategy in which, in each step, the on-board computer computes a current search effectiveness value for each location in the zone and sequentially searches for a location with the highest search effectiveness value. Extensive experiments with random and real-life data provide strong evidence in favor of the suggested operations research model and corresponding algorithm.

Keywords: disaster management, intelligent robots, scheduling algorithm, search-and-rescue at sea

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Authors: Serkan Aras, Emrah Gulay

Abstract:

Combining various forecasting models is an important tool for researchers to attain more accurate forecasts. A great number of papers have shown that selecting single models as dissimilar models, or methods based on different information as possible leads to better forecasting performances. However, there is not a certain rule regarding the number of single models to be used in any combining methods. This study focuses on determining the optimal or near optimal number for single models with the help of statistical tests. An extensive experiment is carried out by utilizing some well-known time series data sets from diverse fields. Furthermore, many rival forecasting methods and some of the commonly used combining methods are employed. The obtained results indicate that some statistically significant performance differences can be found regarding the number of the single models in the combining methods under investigation.

Keywords: combined forecast, forecasting, M-competition, time series

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Authors: Muhammad Naveed Tahir, Wang Yingkuan, Huang Wenjiang, Raheel Osman

Abstract:

Numerous models used in prediction and decision-making process but most of them are linear in natural environment, and linear models reach their limitations with non-linearity in data. Therefore accurate estimation is difficult. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) found extensive acceptance to address the modeling of the complex real world for the non-linear environment. ANN’s have more general and flexible functional forms than traditional statistical methods can effectively deal with. The link between information technology and agriculture will become more firm in the near future. Monitoring crop biophysical properties non-destructively can provide a rapid and accurate understanding of its response to various environmental influences. Crop chlorophyll content is an important indicator of crop health and therefore the estimation of crop yield. In recent years, remote sensing has been accepted as a robust tool for site-specific management by detecting crop parameters at both local and large scales. The present research combined the ANN model with satellite-derived chlorophyll indices from LANDSAT 8 imagery for predicting real-time wheat chlorophyll estimation. The cloud-free scenes of LANDSAT 8 were acquired (Feb-March 2016-17) at the same time when ground-truthing campaign was performed for chlorophyll estimation by using SPAD-502. Different vegetation indices were derived from LANDSAT 8 imagery using ERADAS Imagine (v.2014) software for chlorophyll determination. The vegetation indices were including Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GNDVI), Chlorophyll Absorbed Ratio Index (CARI), Modified Chlorophyll Absorbed Ratio Index (MCARI) and Transformed Chlorophyll Absorbed Ratio index (TCARI). For ANN modeling, MATLAB and SPSS (ANN) tools were used. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) in MATLAB provided very satisfactory results. For training purpose of MLP 61.7% of the data, for validation purpose 28.3% of data and rest 10% of data were used to evaluate and validate the ANN model results. For error evaluation, sum of squares error and relative error were used. ANN model summery showed that sum of squares error of 10.786, the average overall relative error was .099. The MCARI and NDVI were revealed to be more sensitive indices for assessing wheat chlorophyll content with the highest coefficient of determination R²=0.93 and 0.90 respectively. The results suggested that use of high spatial resolution satellite imagery for the retrieval of crop chlorophyll content by using ANN model provides accurate, reliable assessment of crop health status at a larger scale which can help in managing crop nutrition requirement in real time.

Keywords: ANN, chlorophyll content, chlorophyll indices, satellite images, wheat

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Authors: Mohammed Salahat, Steve Wade

Abstract:

This paper presents and compares the SSDDD “Systematic Soft Domain Driven Design Framework” to DDD “Domain Driven Design Framework” as a soft system approach of information systems development. The framework use SSM as a guiding methodology within which we have embedded a sequence of design tasks based on the UML leading to the implementation of a software system using the Naked Objects framework. This framework has been used in action research projects that have involved the investigation and modelling of business processes using object-oriented domain models and the implementation of software systems based on those domain models. Within this framework, Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is used as a guiding methodology to explore the problem situation and to develop the domain model using UML for the given business domain. The framework is proposed and evaluated in our previous works, a comparison between SSDDD and DDD is presented in this paper, to show how SSDDD improved DDD as an approach to modelling and implementing business domain perspectives for Information Systems Development. The comparison process, the results, and the improvements are presented in the following sections of this paper.

Keywords: domain-driven design, soft domain-driven design, naked objects, soft language

Procedia PDF Downloads 290