Search results for: maximum likelihood method

Authors: Surjit Angra, Pooja Rani, Vinod Kumar

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In hydro power plant spiral casing and Stay ring is meant to guide the water flow to guide vane and runner. Spiral casing and Stay ring is subjected to static i.e. pressure load as well as fluctuating load acting on the structure due to water hammer effect in water conductor system. Finite element method has been used to calculate stresses on spiral casing and stay ring. These calculations were done for the maximum possible loading under operating condition "LC1 Quick Shut Down”. The design load is reached for the spiral casing and stay ring during the emergency closure of the guide apparatus "LC1 Quick Shut Down”. During this operation the forces from the head cover to the stay ring also reach their maximum.

Keywords: hydro-turbine, spiral casing, stay ring, structural analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 483

Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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Magnesium alloy has been widely used in structure such as an automobile. It is necessary to consider probabilistic characteristics of a structural material because a fatigue behavior of a structure has a randomness and uncertainty. The purpose of this study is to find the characteristics of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the grown crack size at a specified fatigue crack propagation life and to investigate a statistical crack propagation in magnesium alloys. The statistical fatigue data of the grown crack size are obtained through the fatigue crack propagation (FCP) tests under different maximum fatigue load conditions conducted on the replicated specimens of magnesium alloys. The 3-parameter Weibull distribution is used to find the CDF of grown crack size. The CDF of grown crack size in case of larger maximum fatigue load has longer tail in below 10 percent and above 90 percent. The fatigue failure occurs easily as the tail of CDF of grown crack size becomes long. The fatigue behavior under the larger maximum fatigue load condition shows more rapid propagation and failure mode.

Keywords: cumulative distribution function, fatigue crack propagation, grown crack size, magnesium alloys, maximum fatigue load

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Michael Ayomoh, Adriaan Roux, Oyindamola Omotuyi

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This paper presents an efficient robot navigation model in a multi-target domain amidst static and dynamic workspace obstacles. The problem is that of developing an optimal algorithm to minimize the total travel time of a robot as it visits all target points within its task domain amidst unknown workspace obstacles and finally return to its initial position. In solving this problem, a classical algorithm was first developed to compute the optimal number of paths to be travelled by the robot amidst the network of paths. The principle of shortest distance between robot and targets was used to compute the target point visitation order amidst workspace obstacles. Algorithm premised on the standard polar coordinate system was developed to determine the length of obstacles encountered by the robot hence giving room for a geometrical estimation of the total surface area occupied by the obstacle especially when classified as a relevant obstacle i.e. obstacle that lies in between a robot and its potential visitation point. A stochastic model was developed and used to estimate the likelihood of a dynamic obstacle bumping into the robot’s navigation path and finally, the navigation/obstacle avoidance algorithm was hinged on the hybrid virtual force field (HVFF) method. Significant modelling constraints herein include the choice of navigation path to selected target points, the possible presence of static obstacles along a desired navigation path and the likelihood of encountering a dynamic obstacle along the robot’s path and the chances of it remaining at this position as a static obstacle hence resulting in a case of re-routing after routing. The proposed algorithm demonstrated a high potential for optimal solution in terms of efficiency and effectiveness.

Keywords: multi-target, mobile robot, optimal path, static obstacles, dynamic obstacles

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: Defne Uz

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Horizontal Tail of helicopter is exposed to repeated oscillatory loading generated by aerodynamic and inertial loads, and bending moments depending on operating conditions and maneuvers of the helicopter. In order to ensure that maximum stress levels do not exceed certain fatigue limit of the material and to prevent damage, a numerical analysis approach can be utilized through the Finite Element Method. Therefore, in this paper, fatigue analysis of the Horizontal Tail model is studied numerically to predict high-cycle and low-cycle fatigue life related to defined loading. The analysis estimates the stress field at stress concentration regions such as around fastener holes where the maximum principal stresses are considered for each load case. Critical element identification of the main load carrying structural components of the model with rivet holes is performed as a post-process since critical regions with high-stress values are used as an input for fatigue life calculation. Once the maximum stress is obtained at the critical element and the related mean and alternating components, it is compared with the endurance limit by applying Soderberg approach. The constant life straight line provides the limit for several combinations of mean and alternating stresses. The life calculation based on S-N (Stress-Number of Cycles) curve is also applied with fully reversed loading to determine the number of cycles corresponds to the oscillatory stress with zero means. The results determine the appropriateness of the design of the model for its fatigue strength and the number of cycles that the model can withstand for the calculated stress. The effect of correctly determining the critical rivet holes is investigated by analyzing stresses at different structural parts in the model. In the case of low life prediction, alternative design solutions are developed, and flight hours can be estimated for the fatigue safe operation of the model.

Keywords: fatigue analysis, finite element method, helicopter horizontal tail, life prediction, stress concentration

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Mulusew G. Jebena, David Lindstrom, Tefera Belachew, Craig Hadley, Carl Lachat, Patrick Kolsteren

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Background: The biological and psychosocial consequence of food insecurity on physical health and nutritional status has been reported. But, its effect on mental health during adolescence remains unexplored. Thus, the main aim of this analysis is to examine the mechanism by which food insecurity is linked to mental health among adolescents living in Jimma, Southwest Ethiopia. Methods: We used data from third round observation of Jimma Longitudinal Family and Youth Survey (JLFSY). A total of 1,521 adolescents included for the main analysis. Food insecurity was measured using 5-items scale and The Self Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20) was used to measure mental distress. Structural equation modeling analysis was done using maximum likelihood estimation method. Model diagnostics test was reported. All p values were two tailed and P value ≤ 0.05 was used to determine statistical significance. Results: The prevalence of mental distress was 20.8%, 95% CI: (18.8, 22.9). After adjusted for covariates, the final model depicts food insecurity was associated with adolescent mental distress (β=.324). This analysis showed 94.1% of the effect of food insecurity on mental distress is direct. By contrast, 5.9% of the food insecurity effect is mediated by physical health. In addition, Self-rated health (β=.356), socioeconomic status (β=-.078) parental educational (β= .170), living in urban (β= .193) and female headed household (β=.205) were associated with adolescent mental distress. Conclusions: This finding highlights the direct effect of food insecurity on adolescent mental distress. Therefore, any intervention aimed to improve mental distress of adolescents should consider strategies to improve access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food. Beside this, prevention of underlying factors such as psychosomatic health illness and improving socio economic status is also very critical. Furthermore longitudinal relationship of the long term effect of food insecurity on mental health should be investigated.

Keywords: adolescent, Ethiopia, food insecurity, mental health

Procedia PDF Downloads 565

Authors: N. Ould cherchali, M. S. Boucherit, L. Barazane, A. Morsli

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Photovoltaic power is widely used to supply isolated or unpopulated areas (lighting, pumping, etc.). Great advantage is that this source is inexhaustible, it offers great safety in use and it is clean. But the dynamic models used to describe a photovoltaic system are complicated and nonlinear and due to nonlinear I-V and P–V characteristics of photovoltaic generators, a maximum power point tracking technique (MPPT) is required to maximize the output power. In this paper, two online techniques of maximum power point tracking using robust controller for photovoltaic systems are proposed, the first technique use fuzzy logic controller (FLC) and the second use sliding mode controller (SMC) for photovoltaic systems. The two maximum power point tracking controllers receive the partial derivative of power as inputs, and the output is the duty cycle corresponding to maximum power. A Photovoltaic generator with Boost converter is developed using MATLAB/Simulink to verify the preferences of the proposed techniques. SMC technique provides a good tracking speed in fast changing irradiation and when the irradiation changes slowly or is constant the panel power of FLC technique presents a much smoother signal with less fluctuations.

Keywords: fuzzy logic controller, maximum power point, photovoltaic system, tracker, sliding mode controller

Procedia PDF Downloads 512

Authors: Jinhoa Lee

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The relationships between environmental quality, energy use and economic output have created growing attention over the past decades among researchers and policy makers. Focusing on the empirical aspects of the role of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and energy use in affecting the economic output, this paper is an effort to fulfill the gap in a comprehensive case study at a country level using modern econometric techniques. To achieve the goal, this country-specific study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among energy consumption (using disaggregated energy sources: crude oil, coal, natural gas, electricity), CO2 emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for Egypt using time series analysis from the year 1980-2010. To investigate the relationships between the variables, this paper employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for stationarity, Johansen maximum likelihood method for co-integration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both short- and long-run causality among the research variables for the sample. The long-run equilibrium in the VECM suggests some negative impacts of the CO2 emissions and the coal and natural gas use on the GDP. Conversely, a positive long-run causality from the electricity consumption to the GDP is found to be significant in Egypt during the period. In the short-run, some positive unidirectional causalities exist, running from the coal consumption to the GDP, and the CO2 emissions and the natural gas use. Further, the GDP and the electricity use are positively influenced by the consumption of petroleum products and the direct combustion of crude oil. Overall, the results support arguments that there are relationships among environmental quality, energy use, and economic output in both the short term and long term; however, the effects may differ due to the sources of energy, such as in the case of Egypt for the period of 1980-2010.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, Egypt, energy consumption, GDP, time series analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 589

Authors: Hamed Rashid Sarand, Kemal Selçuk Öğüt

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Speed is one of the fundamental variables of road traffic flow that stands as an important evaluation criterion for traffic analyses in several aspects. In particular, varieties of speed variable, such as average speed, free flow speed, optimum speed (capacity speed), acceleration/deceleration speed and so on, have been explicitly considered in the analysis of not only road safety but also road capacity. In the purpose of realizing 'road speed – maximum speed difference across lanes' and 'road flow rate – maximum speed difference across lanes' relations on freeway traffic, this study presents a case study conducted on a basic freeway segment of O-2 in Istanbul. The traffic data employed in this study have been obtained from 5 remote traffic microwave sensors operated by Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. The study stretch is located between two successive freeway interchanges: Ümraniye and Kavacık. Daily traffic data of 4 years (2011-2014) summer months, July and August are used. The speed data are analyzed into two main flow areas such as uncongested and congested flows. In this study, the regression analyses were carried out in order to examine the relationship between maximum speed difference across lanes and road speed. These investigations were implemented at uncongested and congested flows, separately. Moreover, the relationship between maximum speed difference across lanes and road flow rate were evaluated by applying regression analyses for both uncongested and congested flows separately. It is concluded that there is the moderate relationship between maximum speed difference across lanes and road speed in 50% cases. Additionally, it is indicated that there is the moderate relationship between maximum speed difference across lanes and road flow rate in 30% cases. The maximum speed difference across lanes decreases as the road flow rate increases.

Keywords: maximum speed difference, regression analysis, remote traffic microwave sensor, speed differentiation, traffic flow

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Authors: Olivier Mesly

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This article examines the likelihood of deception on the part of borrowers wishing to obtain credit from institutional or private lenders. In our first study, we identify five explanatory variables that account for nearly forty percent of the propensity to act deceitfully: a poor credit history, debt, risky behavior, and to a much lesser degree, irrational behavior and disconnection from the bundle of needs, goals, and preferences. For the second study, we remodeled the initial questionnaire to adapt it to the needs of institutional bankers and borrowers, especially those that engage in money on-line peer-to-peer lending, a growing business fueled by the COVID pandemic. We find that the three key psychological variables that help to indirectly predict the likelihood of deceitful behaviors and possible default on loan reimbursement, i.e., risky behaviors, ir-rationality, and dis-connection, interact with each other to form a loop. This study presents two benefits: first, we provide evidence that it is to some degree possible to tighten control over lending practices. Second, we offer a pragmatic tool: a questionnaire, that lenders can use or adapt to gauge potential borrowers’ deceit, notably by combining their results with standard hard-data measures of risk.

Keywords: bundle of needs, default, debt, deception, risk, peer-to-peer lending

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Alirıza Kaleli, M. Akif Ceviz, Erdoğan Güner, Köksal Erentürk

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The cyclic variations in spark ignition engines occurring especially under specific engine operating conditions make the maximum pressure variable for successive in-cylinder pressure cycles. Minimization of cyclic variations has a great importance in effectively operating near to lean limit, or at low speed and load. The cyclic variations may reduce the power output of the engine, lead to operational instabilities, and result in undesirable engine vibrations and noise. In this study, spark timing is controlled in order to reduce the cyclic variations in spark ignition engines. Firstly, an ARMAX model has developed between spark timing and maximum pressure using system identification techniques. By using this model, the maximum pressure of the next cycle has been predicted. Then, self-tuning minimum variance controller has been designed to change the spark timing for consecutive cycles of the first cylinder of test engine to regulate the in-cylinder maximum pressure. The performance of the proposed controller is illustrated in real time and experimental results show that the controller has a reliable effect on cycle to cycle variations of maximum cylinder pressure when the engine works under low speed conditions.

Keywords: cyclic variations, cylinder pressure, SI engines, self tuning controller

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Authors: Y. Wang

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The Traveling salesman problem (TSP) is NP-hard in combinatorial optimization. The research shows the algorithms for TSP on the sparse graphs have the shorter computation time than those for TSP according to the complete graphs. We present an improved iterative algorithm to compute the sparse graphs for TSP by frequency graphs computed with frequency quadrilaterals. The iterative algorithm is enhanced by adjusting two parameters of the algorithm. The computation time of the algorithm is O(CN_maxn²) where C is the iterations, N_max is the maximum number of frequency quadrilaterals containing each edge and n is the scale of TSP. The experimental results showed the computed sparse graphs generally have less than 5n edges for most of these Euclidean instances. Moreover, the maximum degree and minimum degree of the vertices in the sparse graphs do not have much difference. Thus, the computation time of the methods to resolve the TSP on these sparse graphs will be greatly reduced.

Keywords: frequency quadrilateral, iterative algorithm, sparse graph, traveling salesman problem

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Authors: Shafique Qadir Memon, Muhammad Safar Mirjat, Abdul Quadir Mughal, Nadeem Amjad

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The aims of this study were to determine direct input energy and indirect energy in maize production, to evaluate the inputs energy consumption and outputs energy gained for maize production in Islamabad, Pakistan for spring 2013. Results showed that grain yield was maximum under deep tillage as compared to conventional and zero tillage. Total energy input/output were maximum in deep tillage as compared to conventional tillage while lowest in zero tillage, net energy gain were found maximum under deep tillage.

Keywords: tillage, energy, grain yield, net energy gain

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Authors: Muhammad Umar Kiani, Muhammad Shahbaz

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Performance of any vehicle can be predicted by its design/modeling and optimization. Design optimization leads to efficient performance. Followed by horizontal launch, the air launch re-entry vehicle undergoes a launch maneuver by introducing a carefully selected angle of attack profile. This angle of attack profile is the basic element to complete a specified mission. Flight program of said vehicle is optimized under the constraints of the maximum allowed angle of attack, lateral and axial loads and with the objective of reaching maximum altitude. The main focus of this study is the endo-atmospheric phase of the ascent trajectory. A three degrees of freedom trajectory model is simulated in MATLAB. The optimization process uses evolutionary algorithm, because of its robustness and efficient capacity to explore the design space in search of the global optimum. Evolutionary Algorithm based trajectory optimization also offers the added benefit of being a generalized method that may work with continuous, discontinuous, linear, and non-linear performance matrix. It also eliminates the requirement of a starting solution. Optimization is particularly beneficial to achieve maximum advantage without increasing the computational cost and affecting the output of the system. For the case of launch vehicles we are immensely anxious to achieve maximum performance and efficiency under different constraints. In a launch vehicle, flight program means the prescribed variation of vehicle pitching angle during the flight which has substantial influence reachable altitude and accuracy of orbit insertion and aerodynamic loading. Results reveal that the angle of attack profile significantly affects the performance of the vehicle.

Keywords: endo-atmospheric, evolutionary algorithm, efficient performance, optimization process

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Authors: Avadhesh Yadav, Anunaya Saraswat

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An evacuated tube solar collector is experimentally studied for steam generation. When the solar radiation falls on evacuated tubes, this energy is absorbed by the tubes and transferred to water with natural conduction and convection. A natural circulation of water occurs due to the inclination in tubes and header. In this experimental study, the efficiency of collector has been calculated. The result shows that the collector attains the maximum efficiency of 46.26% during 14:00 to 15:00h. Steam has been generated for two hours from 13:30 to 15:30 h on a winter day. Maximum solar intensity and maximum ambient temperatures are 795W/m² and 19^oC respectively on this day.

Keywords: evacuated tube, solar collector, hot water, steam generation

Procedia PDF Downloads 272

Authors: Oyuntsetseg Sandag, Lkhagvadorj Khosbayar, Naidansuren Tsendeekhuu, Densenbal Dansran, Bandi Solongo

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Introduction: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common disorder affecting at least 2% to 4% of the adult population. It is estimated that nearly 80% of men and 93% of women with moderate to severe sleep apnea are undiagnosed. A number of screening questionnaires and clinical screening models have been developed to help identify patients with OSA, also it’s indeed to clinical practice. Purpose of study: Determine dependence of obstructive sleep apnea between for severe risk and risk factor. Material and Methods: A cross-sectional study included 114 patients presenting from theCentral state 3th hospital and Central state 1th hospital. Patients who had obstructive sleep apnea (OSA)selected in this study. Standard StopBang questionnaire was obtained from all patients.According to the patients’ response to the StopBang questionnaire was divided into low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk.Descriptive statistics were presented mean ± standard deviation (SD). Each questionnaire was compared on the likelihood ratio for a positive result, the likelihood ratio for a negative test result of regression. Statistical analyses were performed utilizing SPSS 16. Results: 114 patients were obtained (mean age 48 ± 16, male 57)that divided to low risk 54 (47.4%), intermediate risk 33 (28.9%), high risk 27 (23.7%). Result of risk factor showed significantly increasing that mean age (38 ± 13vs. 54 ± 14 vs. 59 ± 10, p<0.05), blood pressure (115 ± 18vs. 133 ± 19vs. 142 ± 21, p<0.05), BMI(24 IQR 22; 26 vs. 24 IQR 22; 29 vs. 28 IQR 25; 34, p<0.001), neck circumference (35 ± 3.4 vs. 38 ± 4.7 vs. 41 ± 4.4, p<0.05)were increased. Results from multiple logistic regressions showed that age is significantly independently factor for OSA (odds ratio 1.07, 95% CI 1.02-1.23, p<0.01). Predictive value of age was significantly higher factor for OSA (AUC=0.833, 95% CI 0.758-0.909, p<0.001). Our study showing that risk of OSA is beginning 47 years old (sensitivity 78.3%, specifity74.1%). Conclusions: According to most of all patients’ response had intermediate risk and high risk. Also, age, blood pressure, neck circumference and BMI were increased such as risk factor was increased for OSA. Especially age is independently factor and highest significance for OSA. Patients’ age one year is increased likelihood risk factor 1.1 times is increased.

Keywords: obstructive sleep apnea, Stop-Bang, BMI (Body Mass Index), blood pressure

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Authors: M. N. Amrani, H. Abanou, A. Dib

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In this paper, we proposed a strategy for optimizing the performance for a pumping structure constituted by an induction motor coupled to a centrifugal pump and improving existing results in this context. The considered system is supplied by a photovoltaic generator (GPV) through two static converters piloted in an independent manner. We opted for a maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control method based on the Neuro - Fuzzy, which is well known for its stability and robustness. To improve the induction motor performance, we use the concept of Direct Torque Control (DTC) and PID controller for motor speed to pilot the working of the induction motor. Simulations of the proposed approach give interesting results compared to the existing control strategies in this field. The model of the proposed system is simulated by MATLAB/Simulink.

Keywords: solar energy, pumping photovoltaic system, maximum power point tracking, direct torque Control (DTC), PID regulator

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Authors: Anthony Khawaja, Jacques Prioux, Ghassan Maalouf, Rawad El Hage

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The regular practice of physical activities characterized by significant mechanical stresses stimulates bone formation and improves bone mineral density (BMD) in the most solicited sites. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationships between maximum power and bone variables in a group of young adult men. Identification of new determinants of BMD, bone mineral content (BMC) and hip geometric indices in young adult men, would allow screening and early management of future cases of osteopenia and osteoporosis. Fifty-three young adult men (18 – 35yr) voluntarily participated in this study. Weight and height were measured, and body mass index was calculated. Body composition, BMC and BMD were determined for each individual by Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA; GE Healthcare, Madison, WI) at whole body (WB), lumbar spine (L1-L4), total hip (TH), and femoral neck (FN). FN cross-sectional area (CSA), strength index (SI), buckling ratio (BR), FN section modulus (Z), cross-sectional moment of inertia (CSMI) and L1-L4 TBS were also evaluated by DXA. The vertical jump was evaluated using a field test (sargent test). Two main parameters were retained: vertical jump performance (cm) and power (w). The subjects performed three jumps with 2 minutes of recovery between jumps. The highest vertical jump was selected. Maximum power (P max, in watts) was calculated. Maximum power was positively correlated to WB BMD (r = 0.41; p < 0.01), WB BMC (r = 0.65; p < 0.001), L1-L4 BMC (r = 0.54; p < 0.001), FN BMC (r = 0.35; p < 0.01), TH BMC (r = 0.50; p < 0.001), CSMI (r = 0.50; p < 0.001), CSA (r = 0.33; p < 0.05). Vertical jump was positively correlated to WB BMC (r = 0.31; p < 0.05), L1-L4 BMC (r = 0.40; p < 0.01), CSMI (r = 0.29; p < 0.05). The current study suggests that maximum power is a positive determinant of BMD, BMC and hip geometric indices in young adult men. In addition, it shows also that maximum power is a stronger positive determinant of bone variables than vertical jump in this population. Implementing strategies to increase maximum power in young adult men may be useful for preventing osteoporotic fractures later in life.

Keywords: bone variables, maximum power, osteopenia, osteoporosis, vertical jump, young adult men

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Komeil Valipourian

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Urban advances and the growing need for developing infrastructures has increased the importance of deep excavations. In this study, after the introducing probability analysis as an important issue, an attempt has been made to apply it for the deep excavation project of Bangkok’s Metro as a case study. For this, the numerical probability model has been developed based on the Finite Difference Method and Monte Carlo sampling approach. The results indicate that disregarding the issue of probability in this project will result in an inappropriate design of the retaining structure. Therefore, probabilistic redesign of the support is proposed and carried out as one of the applications of probability analysis. A 50% reduction in the flexural strength of the structure increases the failure probability just by 8% in the allowable range and helps improve economic conditions, while maintaining mechanical efficiency. With regard to the lack of efficient design in most deep excavations, by considering geometrical and geotechnical variability, an attempt was made to develop an optimum practical design standard for deep excavations based on failure probability. On this basis, a practical relationship is presented for estimating the maximum allowable horizontal displacement, which can help improve design conditions without developing the probability analysis.

Keywords: numerical probability modeling, deep excavation, allowable maximum displacement, finite difference method (FDM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Jinhoa Lee

Abstract:

The relationships between environmental quality, energy use and economic output have created growing attention over the past decades among researchers and policy makers. Focusing on the empirical aspects of the role of CO2 emissions and energy use in affecting the economic output, this paper is an effort to fulfill the gap in a comprehensive case study at a country level using modern econometric techniques. To achieve the goal, this country-specific study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among energy consumption (using disaggregated energy sources: crude oil, coal, natural gas, electricity), carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for Israel using time series analysis from the year 1980-2010. To investigate the relationships between the variables, this paper employs the Phillips–Perron (PP) test for stationarity, Johansen maximum likelihood method for cointegration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both short- and long-run causality among the research variables for the sample. The long-run equilibrium in the VECM suggests significant positive impacts of coal and natural gas consumptions on GDP in Israel. In the short run, GDP positively affects coal consumption. While there exists a positive unidirectional causality running from coal consumption to consumption of petroleum products and the direct combustion of crude oil, there exists a negative unidirectional causality running from natural gas consumption to consumption of petroleum products and the direct combustion of crude oil in the short run. Overall, the results support arguments that there are relationships among environmental quality, energy use and economic output but the associations can to be differed by the sources of energy in the case of Israel over of period 1980-2010.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, energy consumption, GDP, Israel, time series analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 624

Authors: Young-Hyun Seo, Hyunwoo Park, Dong-Kyu Kim, Seung-Young Kho

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The purpose of this study is providing an improved mode choice model considering parameters including age grouping of prime-aged and old age. In this study, 2010 Household Travel Survey data were used and improper samples were removed through the analysis. Chosen alternative, date of birth, mode, origin code, destination code, departure time, and arrival time are considered from Household Travel Survey. By preprocessing data, travel time, travel cost, mode, and ratio of people aged 45 to 55 years, 55 to 65 years and over 65 years were calculated. After the manipulation, the mode choice model was constructed using LIMDEP by maximum likelihood estimation. A significance test was conducted for nine parameters, three age groups for three modes. Then the test was conducted again for the mode choice model with significant parameters, travel cost variable and travel time variable. As a result of the model estimation, as the age increases, the preference for the car decreases and the preference for the bus increases. This study is meaningful in that the individual and households characteristics are applied to the aggregate model.

Keywords: age grouping, aging, mode choice model, multinomial logit model

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Authors: Osiris Terry, Kenneth Hopkinson, Laura Humphrey

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Systematic resampling is the most popularly used resampling method in particle filters. This paper seeks to further the understanding of systematic resampling by defining a formula made up of variables from the sampling equation and the particle weights. The formula is then verified via SPARK, a software verification language. The verified systematic resampling formula states that the minimum/maximum number of possible samples taken of a particle is equal to the floor/ceiling value of particle weight divided by the sampling interval, respectively. This allows for the creation of a randomness spectrum that each resampling method can fall within. Methods on the lower end, e.g., systematic resampling, have less randomness and, thus, are quicker to reach an estimate. Although lower randomness allows for error by having a larger bias towards the size of the weight, having this bias creates vulnerabilities to the noise in the environment, e.g., jamming. Conclusively, this is the first step in characterizing each resampling method. This will allow target-tracking engineers to pick the best resampling method for their environment instead of choosing the most popularly used one.

Keywords: SPARK, software verification, resampling, systematic resampling, particle filter, tracking

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Authors: Jairo Alejandro Fernandez Ortega

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Objective: Regarding effects of training velocity on strength in the functional condition of older adults controversy exists. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of a twelve-week strength training program (PE) performed at high speed (GAV) versus a traditionally executed program (GBV), on functional performance, maximum strength and muscle power in a group of older adult women. Methodology: 86 women aged between 60-81 years participated voluntarily in the study and were assigned randomly to the GAV (three series at 40% 1RM at maximum speed, with maximum losses of 10% speed) or to the GBV (three series with three sets at 70% of 1RM). Both groups performed three weekly trainings. The maximum strength of upper and lower limbs (1RM), prehensile strength, walking speed, maximum power, mean propulsive velocity (MPV) and functional performance (senior fitness test) were evaluated before and after the PE. Results: Significant improvements were observed (p < 0.05) in all the tests in the two groups after the twelve weeks of training. However, the results of GAV were significantly (P < 0.05) higher than those of the GBV, in the tests of agility and dynamic equilibrium, stationary walking, sitting and standing, walking speed over 4 and 6 meters, MPV and peak power. In the tests of maximum strength and prehensile force, the differences were not significant. Conclusion: Strength training performed at high speeds seems to have a better effect on functional performance and muscle power than strength training performed at low speed.

Keywords: power training, resistance exercise, aging, strength, physical performance, high-velocity, resistance training

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Authors: Peter C. St. John, Michael F. Crowley, Yannick J. Bomble

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Production of chemicals from engineered organisms in a batch culture typically involves a trade-off between productivity, yield, and titer. However, strategies for strain design typically involve designing mutations to achieve the highest yield possible while maintaining growth viability. Such approaches tend to follow the principle of designing static networks with minimum metabolic functionality to achieve desired yields. While these methods are computationally tractable, optimum productivity is likely achieved by a dynamic strategy, in which intracellular fluxes change their distribution over time. One can use multi-stage fermentations to increase either productivity or yield. Such strategies would range from simple manipulations (aerobic growth phase, anaerobic production phase), to more complex genetic toggle switches. Additionally, some computational methods can also be developed to aid in optimizing two-stage fermentation systems. One can assume an initial control strategy (i.e., a single reaction target) in maximizing productivity - but it is unclear how close this productivity would come to a global optimum. The calculation of maximum theoretical yield in metabolic engineering can help guide strain and pathway selection for static strain design efforts. Here, we present a method for the calculation of a maximum theoretical productivity of a batch culture system. This method follows the traditional assumptions of dynamic flux balance analysis: that internal metabolite fluxes are governed by a pseudo-steady state and external metabolite fluxes are represented by dynamic system including Michealis-Menten or hill-type regulation. The productivity optimization is achieved via dynamic programming, and accounts explicitly for an arbitrary number of fermentation stages and flux variable changes. We have applied our method to succinate production in two common microbial hosts: E. coli and A. succinogenes. The method can be further extended to calculate the complete productivity versus yield Pareto surface. Our results demonstrate that nearly optimal yields and productivities can indeed be achieved with only two discrete flux stages.

Keywords: A. succinogenes, E. coli, metabolic engineering, metabolite fluxes, multi-stage fermentations, succinate

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Authors: Pedro P. Drumond, Priscilla M. Moura, Marcia M. L. P. Coelho

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The purpose of On-site Stormwater Detention (OSD) system is to promote the detention of addition stormwater runoff caused by impervious areas, in order to maintain the peak flow the same as the pre-urbanization condition. In recent decades, these systems have been built in many cities around the world. However, its real efficiency continues to be unknown due to the lack of research, especially with regard to monitoring its real performance. Thus, this study aims to compare the water level monitoring data of an OSD built in Belo Horizonte/Brazil with the results of theoretical methods simulations, usually adopted in OSD design. There were made two theoretical simulations, one using the Rational Method and Modified Puls method and another using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) method and Modified Puls method. The monitoring data were obtained with a water level sensor, installed inside the reservoir and connected to a data logger. The comparison of OSD performance was made for 48 rainfall events recorded from April/2015 to March/2017. The comparison of maximum water levels in the OSD showed that the results of the simulations with Rational/Puls and SCS/Puls methods were, on average 33% and 73%, respectively, lower than those monitored. The Rational/Puls results were significantly higher than the SCS/Puls results, only in the events with greater frequency. In the events with average recurrence interval of 5, 10 and 200 years, the maximum water heights were similar in both simulations. Also, the results showed that the duration of rainfall events was close to the duration of monitored hydrograph. The rising time and recession time of the hydrographs calculated with the Rational Method represented better the monitored hydrograph than SCS Method. The comparison indicates that the real discharge coefficient value could be higher than 0.61, adopted in Puls simulations. New researches evaluating OSD real performance should be developed. In order to verify the peak flow damping efficiency and the value of the discharge coefficient is necessary to monitor the inflow and outflow of an OSD, in addition to monitor the water level inside it.

Keywords: best management practices, on-site stormwater detention, source control, urban drainage

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Authors: Z. Adnan, M. M. Habib

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The laboratory tests for measuring the effects of small strain to the shear strength and maximum stiffness development of post-cyclic degradation of hemic peat are reviewed in this paper. A series of laboratory testing has been conducted to fulfil the objective of this research to study the post-cyclic behaviour of peat soil and focuses on the small strain characteristics. For this purpose, a number of strain-controlled static, cyclic and post-cyclic triaxial tests were carried out in undrained condition on hemic peat soil. The shear strength and maximum stiffness of hemic peat are evaluated immediately after post-cyclic monotonic testing. There are two soil samples taken from West Johor and East Malaysia peat soil. Based on these laboratories and field testing data, it was found that the shear strength and maximum stiffness of peat soil decreased in post-cyclic monotonic loading than its initial shear strength and stiffness. In particular, degradation in shear strength and stiffness is more sensitive for peat soil due to fragile and uniform fibre structures. Shear strength of peat soil, τ_max = 12.53 kPa (Beaufort peat, BFpt) and 36.61 kPa (Parit Nipah peat, PNpt) decreased than its initial 58.46 kPa and 91.67 kPa. The maximum stiffness, G_max = 0.23 and 0.25 decreased markedly with post-cyclic, G_max = 0.04 and 0.09. Simple correlations between the G_max and the τ_max effects due to small strain, ε = 0.1, the G_max values for post-cyclic are relatively low compared to its initial G_max. As a consequence, the reported values and patterns of both the West Johor and East Malaysia peat soil are generally the same.

Keywords: post-cyclic, strain, maximum stiffness, shear strength

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Authors: Victoria Goodall, Paul Fatti, Norman Owen-Smith

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Hidden Markov Models have become popular for the analysis of animal tracking data. These models are being used to model the movements of a variety of species in many areas around the world. A common assumption of the model is that the observations need to have regular time steps. In many ecological studies, this will not be the case. The objective of the research is to modify the movement model to allow for irregularly spaced locations and investigate the effect on the inferences which can be made about the latent states. A modification of the likelihood function to allow for these irregular spaced locations is investigated, without using interpolation or averaging the movement rate. The suitability of the modification is investigated using GPS tracking data for lion (Panthera leo) in South Africa, with many observations obtained during the night, and few observations during the day. Many nocturnal predator tracking studies are set up in this way, to obtain many locations at night when the animal is most active and is difficult to observe. Few observations are obtained during the day, when the animal is expected to rest and is potentially easier to observe. Modifying the likelihood function allows the popular Hidden Markov Model framework to be used to model these irregular spaced locations, making use of all the observed data.

Keywords: hidden Markov Models, irregular observations, animal movement modelling, nocturnal predator

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Authors: Kamaljit Singh Sokhal, Gangacharyulu Dasoraju, Vijaya Kumar Bulasara

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Biopolymers are popular in many areas, like petrochemicals, food industry and agriculture due to their favorable properties like environment-friendly, availability, and cost. In this study, a biopolymer gum Arabic was used to find its effect on the pressure drop at various concentrations (100 ppm – 300 ppm) with various Reynolds numbers (10000 – 45000). A rheological study was also done by using the same concentrations to find the effect of the shear rate on the shear viscosity. Experiments were performed to find the effect of injection of gum Arabic directly near the boundary layer and to investigate its effect on the maximum possible drag reduction. Experiments were performed on a test section having i.d of 19.50 mm and length of 3045 mm. The polymer solution was injected from the top of the test section by using a peristaltic pump. The concentration of the polymer solution and the Reynolds number were used as parameters to get maximum possible drag reduction. Water was circulated through a centrifugal pump having a maximum 3000 rpm and the flow rate was measured by using rotameter. Results were validated by using Virk's maximum drag reduction asymptote. A maximum drag reduction of 62.15% was observed with the maximum concentration of gum Arabic, 300 ppm. The solution was circulated in the closed loop to find the effect of degradation of polymers with a number of cycles on the drag reduction percentage. It was observed that the injection of the polymer solution in the boundary layer was showing better results than premixed solutions.

Keywords: drag reduction, shear viscosity, gum arabic, injection point

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Authors: Enemeri George Uweiyohowo

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Improved achievement with respect to output control of photovoltaic (PV) systems is one of the major focus of PV in recent times. This is evident to its low carbon emission and efficiency. Power failure or outage from commercial providers, in general, does not promote development to public and private sector, these basically limit the development of industries. The need for a well-structured PV system is of importance for an efficient and cost-effective monitoring system. The purpose of this paper is to validate the maximum power point of an off-grid PV system taking into consideration the most effective tilt and orientation angles for PV's in the southern hemisphere. This paper is based on analyzing the system using a solar charger with MPPT from a pulse width modulation (PWM) perspective. The power conditioning device chosen is a solar charger with MPPT. The practical setup consists of a PV panel that is set to an orientation angle of 0∘N, with a corresponding tilt angle of 36∘, 26∘ and 16∘. Preliminary results include regression analysis (normal probability plot) showing the maximum power point in the system as well the best tilt angle for maximum power point tracking.

Keywords: poly-crystalline PV panels, information technology (IT), maximum power point tracking (MPPT), pulse width modulation (PWM)

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Authors: Piyangkun Kukutapan, Siridech Boonsang

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The article proposes maximum power point tracking without mechanical sensor using Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN). The aim of article is to reduce the cost and complexity but still retain efficiency. The experimental is that duty cycle is generated maximum power, if it has suitable qualification. The measured data from DC generator, voltage (V), current (I), power (P), turnover rate of power (dP), and turnover rate of voltage (dV) are used as input for MLPNN model. The output of this model is duty cycle for driving the converter. The experiment implemented using Arduino Uno board. This diagram is compared to MPPT using MLPNN and P&O control (Perturbation and Observation control). The experimental results show that the proposed MLPNN based approach is more efficiency than P&O algorithm for this application.

Keywords: maximum power point tracking, multilayer perceptron netural network, optimal duty cycle, DC generator

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Authors: Pallavi Moudgil, J. S. Bedi, R. S. Aulakh, J. P. S. Gill

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Mycotoxins in milk are of major public health concern. The present study was envisaged with an aim to monitor the occurrence of aflatoxin M1 and ochratoxin A in raw milk samples collected from individual animals from dairy farms located in Punjab (India). A total of 168 raw milk samples were collected and analysed using competitive ELISA kits. Out of these, 9 (5.4%) samples were found positive for aflatoxin M1 with the mean concentration of 0.006-0.13 ng/ml and 2 (1.2%) samples exceeded the established maximum residue limit of 0.05 ng/ml established by the European Union. For ochratoxin A, 2 (0.1%) samples were found positive with the mean concentration of 0.61-0.83 ng/ml with both the samples below the established maximum residue limit of 2 ng/ml. The results showed that the milk of dairy cattle is safe with respect to ochratoxin A contamination but occurrence of aflatoxin M1 above maximum residue limit suggested that feed contaminated with mycotoxins might have been offered to dairy cattle that can pose serious health risks to consumers.

Keywords: Aflatoxin M1, health risks, maximum residue limit, milk, Ochratoxin A

Procedia PDF Downloads 456